Israel, Hamas & the Gaza Strip

[Thingle]

Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness

to be fair
the IAF can take out just about anyone in gaza provided they can find him
and spending your life in a secret bunker (they have bunker busters) isnt a very good way to be a leader

If only he weren't singing Destroy Israel he wouldn't need to live like a rat in heat.

[bladeofdarkness]

Originally Posted by Thingle

If only he weren't singing Destroy Israel he wouldn't need to live like a rat in heat.

i hear you there
but if he didnt sing that tune
why would people follow him

[Thingle]

Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness

i hear you there
but if he didnt sing that tune
why would people follow him

That's his motive? Not really to destroy Israel, but just to taste power?

[Lathdrinor]

Originally Posted by Thingle

Wrong again. Gaza is no longer under Israeli control after 2005. What's to be afraid of?

Then whose control is it under? Hamas? Don't make me laugh. Israel just showed the world who's in real control of Gaza's politics. Several members of Hamas's leadership were killed during the latest offensive. If the entire government was there in a visible location, they'd have all been killed/arrested.

Israel controls the in and out of Gaza. Gaza is not a state, nor does it have a standing army, or any real sovereignty to speak of.

[bladeofdarkness]

Originally Posted by Thingle

That's his motive? Not really to destroy Israel, but just to taste power?

what i meant was
the hamas's main reason for existing is "destroy israel"
if you want to become someone within the movment
you cant go against the creed

@Lathdrinor

israel doesnt CONTROL the gaza strip
the hamas actively does
what israel showed is that the hamas controls it so long as israel allows it to
and that it can change that in a few months

[Thingle]

Originally Posted by Lathdrinor

Israel controls the in and out of Gaza.

Part of which is Israeli territory. But Gaza proper, no.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness

to be fair
@Vexx
no
i mean really scared shit-less
they dropped their weapons and ran for it
not gurrila tactics
plain ran away and didnt come back

You're providing anecdotal gossip as fact. Got a reference? And were they dealing with Hamas regulars, militias, ... some untrained guys who thought they'd join in?

Look, be aware that people and leaders will each attempt to portray situations in the best light for them. I no more assume that an Israeli press release has some automatic weight of truth than I do a Hamas release nor a guy on the ground who struts about saying "they ran away!!" or "We embarrassed the Israelis into retreating!!!" None of them can be totally characterized as accurate because they each fail to consider pieces of data or they get warped to "prove the underlying assumptions".

[bladeofdarkness]

i'm talking about people i know personally
friends
my cousin was in there till yesterday
and they all tell me the same thing
all the hype that the hamas was putting on about gaza becoming a graveyard of IDF soldiers
total jobbers (they left behind small arms and uniform, and just ran)
they found pre-prepered position that were just left without being used at all
on of our paratrooper commanders put it best
just becouse they have uniforms, doesnt make them soldiers

[Vexx]

which makes your information anecdotal.... and provides no information at all about the state of mind the people they encountered were in, whether they were Hamas seniors or just people who had recently enlisted, no training, etc.

"My friend told me" is essentially useless data except as coloring, even if they were standing on the "front line". Collect enough of such data and it might become more substantive. There probably were irregulars who "ran scared".... but was that the dominant theme or just the perspective of your specific friends recalling instances?

All you really know is that some people say they saw some irregulars drop their stuff and run. Or that they found some stuff left behind after the irregulars stopped shooting. That's a good sign of demoralization... or its a ruse to draw troops farther forward out of position.

A good tactician does not make rash assumptions about unknown variables.

[Lathdrinor]

Originally Posted by Thingle

Part of which is Israeli territory. But Gaza proper, no.

Gaza is not Israeli territory, no, but it's effectively controlled by Israel (& Egypt, it should be noted) in terms of military operations and logistics. Hamas would be insane to hold its government there. The conflict would've ended a long time ago if Hamas was that stupid.

[Thingle]

Originally Posted by Lathdrinor

, but it's effectively controlled by Israel (& Egypt, it should be noted) in terms of military operations and logistics.

Which is solely because of it's location. Israel is entitled to a blockade.

[bladeofdarkness]

cant do much more then that for now
all i know is that these ruses were very common apperently
and that they often left posts that looked like they were designed to be a battle ground (they litteraly turned gaza into a battlefield)
IED's, tunnels, MG implacements, houses rigged to blow, at one point (this was on the news, not someone i know) they even found an AA gun that was just abandoned (they made a big deal to talk about their new "knighmare of the IAF")
we'll see in the coming weeks if there is more evidence

P.S Lathdrinor
they are that stupid
they are also replaceable

[Lathdrinor]

Originally Posted by Thingle

Which is solely because of it's location. Israel is entitled to a blockade.

That's right. So why would the Hamas leadership be in Gaza - a territory that Israel can blockade and invade at will? They'd be turning themselves in, and the conflict would be over.

I mean, It's not like Israel haven't assassinated top Hamas leaders before. In fact, both of Khaled Mashal's predecessors - Ahmed Yassin & Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi - were assassinated by Israeli forces in Gaza. Why would Khaled Mashal put himself in the same situation? Hamas isn't that dumb.

[bladeofdarkness]

Khaled Mashal almost did get killed by israel (in syria)
mossad agents poisoned him
but there was a screw up and they were captured
israel had to trade the antidote for the agents
big mossad fuck up (one of the few well known ones)

[Lathdrinor]

Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness

Khaled Mashal almost did get killed by israel (in syria)
mossad agents poisoned him
but there was a screw up and they were captured
israel had to trade the antidote for the agents
big mossad fuck up (one of the few well known ones)

Well, nowhere in the Middle-East is really safe for Hamas, I suspect, but Syria is probably a lot safer than Gaza (though I believe that assassination attempt was carried out in Jordan).

[bladeofdarkness]

not sure where
but im sure about that it did

but thats not really the importent thing
the importent thing is hamas took a beating on several fronts
and Khaled Mashal was shown a few very troubling facts he now has to deal with in the aftermath

1)the arab world as a whole, wouldnt lift a finger to help them during the entire operation
and is now collecting money to re-build gaza, under the condition that the hamas shares control in gaza with the fatah
edit: ban ki mun, the current UN CEO said out loud, the palestinian must unite under the palestinian authority leader abu mazen (fatah)
2)for all the world public outrage against israel that you kept hearing about
twenty four hours after israel declared a cease-fire, the leaders of the UK, frence, germeny, spain, italy, and the czeck rep (the corrent president of the UN security council) were in ehud olmart's HOME in jerusalem
for a dinner party
the europen community is on israel's side (as far as hamas is concerend) and is commited to stop hamas from rearming itself
3)the threat of the "massive" rockets attacks they used as a deterence against israeli attack
failed completely to effect the israeli public (last poll in israel seems to suggest that 41% of the public wants to see the operation keep going for a few more weeks)
4)their orgenizeation has been infiltrated by israeli intel so badly that most of the rocket stashs have been hit within the first DAY (leading them to only be able to fire 20% of what they had hoped
and the number 3 and 4 men in the orgenaziation have been killed in three weeks (the 3# man, was the one in charge of the internal security mechinizems)
5)the IDF went past their defense lines all over the gaza strip like they were beraly there at all (and they have spent over years constructing them)
going past tunnels, ditches, mines, IED's, sniper MG and morter posts, 100 kilo charges dug into the road (against tanks), booby traped houses rigged to collapse and bury soldiers alive, and other such tricks ment to kill as many soldiers as possible
they built all that in the past 3 years, and the IDF went past it all in less then two weeks
and for all that effort the IDF suffered 6 KIA to their actions, and 4 to friendly fire
the IDF on the other hand claims to have at least 500 confirmed enemy KIA (according to their sources, they could be exagerating)
6)their "elite" units composed of hamas activists that were sent to be trained in iran
was pretty much wiped out (according at least to IDF sources)
and even if they didnt get wiped out, they sure as hell didnt do anything meaningful (they were suppose to be commandos)
7)their ENTIRE goverment infurstructure in gaza is none existent, and would have to be rebuilt from scratch (this infurstructure was something they took from the fatah, now they have to re-build it themselves)
as of right now, the hamas does not have a toilet it can call its own
8)the blockade (their main reason for firing rockets) is still in place, and its not likely to be lifted any time soon (aside from letting international aid in)
and ismail hannia, for all his talk, is still in the bunker

and thats not even counting the massive damage that was done to their stronghold in the strip
i wouldnt want to be Khaled Mashal right now

[Ledgem]

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

And regardless of how much they like you, I think the main reason for Palestinian rocket attacks is general mistrust of Israeli intentions. Plenty of people hate each other, but would rather get on with their lives than blow each other up. What makes the Palestinians different is the mistrust on important issues: they think they HAVE to do something, or else you either won't negotiate or won't follow through. You won't start to see positive steps from the Palestinians until trust improves.

(And yes, I do realize a small group will try and attack you regardless. That's not the average Palestinian you're dealing with, though, and such problems aren't generally best dealt with by 2000lbs bombs.)

Keep in mind that before the rocket attacks started, Israel was under regular attack by suicide bombers. If you claim that "regular Palestinians" who are very upset are firing rockets, I can believe it. If you want to tell me that regular people who are just upset are going on suicide runs, I have a harder time with that. I think you need to have a special mindset to be willing to kill yourself like that. It isn't the same as simply risking death, it's making your own death a sort of weapon. Extremists are well-known for that.

The switch from suicide bombers to rockets doesn't reflect a changing trend in Palestinian views, either (in my opinion). Interviews seem to indicate that it's a change in tactics that militant groups are using to get around Israel's defensive walls and tightened border security.

Which is all to say, I don't believe that the attacks are largely representative of actions taken by "normal" Palestinians. It seems that the vast majority were undertaken by extremists.

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

Extremism spreads fastest among those with nothing else to embrace. Sure, there will always be a hardcore of idealogical purists and the like, but in a stable society such people are marginalized and easily contained. Not so in an unstable society.

We need to marginalize Islamic extremists, and as far as I can tell the only way to pull that off is to convince other muslims to do it for us.

How do you define "nothing else to embrace"? I get the impression that you wrote that thinking of poverty conditions. That tends to hold true. The trouble is that you can get extremists arising from anything. There have been a few isolated incidents where Americans went off to join some of these militant groups. What could have possibly caused them to want to go and fight with a group like that? I believe that in nearly all cases they had converted to Islam relatively shortly before heading off. That indicates to me that there's someone doing something poisonous through the Islamic faith.

It isn't limited to Islam, either. Examine some practices from the Church of Scientology. Followers from that cult have done some very frightening things. They had infiltrated the government at one point, they regularly make threats against those who take major action against the church, and there are a few as of yet unproven cases where it would seem likely that those who spoke out against the organization were killed by followers. What makes a person so willing to follow orders through a religious hierarchy to the point where they will suspend their own morals? It doesn't have to be poverty, and perhaps many of those people felt that they were missing something in their life. Many people will always tend to feel that they're missing something in their life, though. Extremism doesn't require poor living conditions or poverty to take hold in those cases.

[0utf0xZer0]

@Ledgem:

There will always be some extremists in a society, but it's abnormal for them to be supported as they are in Palestine. By the very nature of what extremism is, such behaviour indicates dissatisfaction with the status quo.

The way I see it, such extremism can only be contained through a combination of carrot and stick methods, not one of the other. On the stick side, you need Israel to prove that it's not going to go away completely, so there's no point in trying. With the exception of some extremists, I think most Palestinians understand this by now.

At the same time, you're not going to be able to threaten the Palestinians into complete submission without using so much force as to lose any shred of morality you had. Hence, you need to negotiate some level of political settlement as well. The primary problem Israel has in this regard is that Palestinians don't trust Israel to follow through with it's promises without being threatened in turn. That's why even the moderates won't disarm completely.

It is, however, possible to push moderates into a position where they have some gains to protect, but also risk losing it. In this situation, the moderate faction has the incentive, and hopefully the power to bring the extremist elements under control. And in general, they're able to do it more effectively and with less destruction than an outsider can. From what I hear, this is the situation in the West Bank right now: all that needs to be done there is convince people that enough progress is being made that they don't get all up in arms.

I imagine this would also be the situation in Gaza were it not for Hamas' hegemonic control there. Certainly, Hamas needs to go. The reason I criticize the IDF in this Gaza is more because I see their policies as both ineffective (I don't see threatening Hamas as particularly effective, I think they probably would have pressed on to their own destruction if they hadn't already felt they already proved their "manhood") and as excessive use of force (assuming targets have military value without proper evidence), not because I object to trying to push Hamas out. I just feel like that the bombing and such did a lot of damage to the Gazan population while achieving little.

[Liddo-kun]

A little bit of good news for Israel from Europe.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0108/p01s02-woeu.html

Spoiler for csmonitor.com:

In Scandinavia, traditionally pro-Arab states have found social tensions with new Muslim populations – the crisis in Denmark over a cartoon of the prophet Muhammad, for example – and public support for Arabs is down in polls. In Europe today, nearly all major leaders – France's Nicolas Sarkozy, Germany's Angela Merkel, Britain's Gordon Brown, and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi – are seen as leaning toward Israel. The lone pro-Arab leader is Spain's José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

"There is a general 'Arab fatigue' in Europe," says Denis Bauchard, an adviser to the French Institute for International Relations in Paris. "The Palestine issue continues, the violence continues, the Palestinians are divided, and it just creates a kind of fatigue."

And it seems Egypt's relations with Hamas isn't very good at all.
The Egyptian government largely blames Hamas for the Israeli onslaught.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...4BR2AP20081228

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by Ledgem

Which is all to say, I don't believe that the attacks are largely representative of actions taken by "normal" Palestinians. It seems that the vast majority were undertaken by extremists.

How do you define "nothing else to embrace"? I get the impression that you wrote that thinking of poverty conditions. That tends to hold true. The trouble is that you can get extremists arising from anything. There have been a few isolated incidents where Americans went off to join some of these militant groups. What could have possibly caused them to want to go and fight with a group like that? I believe that in nearly all cases they had converted to Islam relatively shortly before heading off. That indicates to me that there's someone doing something poisonous through the Islamic faith.

It isn't limited to Islam, either. Examine some practices from the Church of Scientology. Followers from that cult have done some very frightening things. They had infiltrated the government at one point, they regularly make threats against those who take major action against the church, and there are a few as of yet unproven cases where it would seem likely that those who spoke out against the organization were killed by followers. What makes a person so willing to follow orders through a religious hierarchy to the point where they will suspend their own morals? It doesn't have to be poverty, and perhaps many of those people felt that they were missing something in their life. Many people will always tend to feel that they're missing something in their life, though. Extremism doesn't require poor living conditions or poverty to take hold in those cases.

There are particular schools of thought (Wahhabi) claiming to be Islamist in Saudi Arabia that are *extremely* poisonous - such that they terrify the "thugs in charge" (aka the royals). The royals are delighted when those zealots go somewhere else (Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon) to kill themselves spectacularly. But they're afraid enough of them not to stamp them out. It affects the very poor to the very rich (e.g. Bin Laden and his posse).

Admitting your own religion has some wingnuts and lunatics is apparently quite difficult (be it Christian, Islamic, or Judaic, etc).

"Nothing else to embrace" ... here's an example of it I think. You've just lost your entire family to an errant Israeli bomb .... Hamas comes to visit with an offer.
I think of that specific example because just today a Palistinian doctor who works in Tel Aviv just lost most of his family to Israeli heavy weapons fire that hit a refuge shelter. He was a strong and active supporter of building ties with Israel.
I could certainly see someone becoming a willing agent of vengence under that condition - though I can't predict this doctor's path. Personally, I'd like to find and slap the shit out of the Israeli woman who interrupted him speaking to reporters, by calling his anguish "propaganda". Hopefully one of his Israeli friends beat me to it.

Gazan Doctor and Peace Advocate Loses 3 Daughters to Israeli Fire
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/18/wo...ughters&st=cse

Many Targets Civilian Infrastructure
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/wo...gaza.html?_r=1

(note: the New York Times is not exactly an unfriendly observer of Israel)

Here's a good article that gives some insight into what appears to be the general Israeli sentiment on the operation. It describes fairly well why the general public in Israel feels the way they do (and the variety of opinions amongst the public) as well as some of the psychology of the situation.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/wo...wanted=1&fta=y