[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[momobunny]

Personally, I'm more interested in the murders and other characters... but I guess that would explain why I didn't enjoy EP4 as much as the other ones.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Ssol

For example, episode 4. We have so little information regarding what actually happened that we may never know what truly happened regarding the murders.

One fairly easy explanation is that it was several murder pacts interacting with one another and going horribly wrong, though.

If you repeat the same events a certain number of times, probability is inevitably going to get in the way and kill everyone, right?

[MeoTwister5]

The biggest problem with the Xanatos's Pileup as a main reason for the murders on the island is that, for MetaBattler to achieve his ultimate goal of saving everyone on the island, piece Battler will have the ridiculously difficult task of discovering the different murder plots and finding a way to stop them all from happening.

Good luck with that Battler!

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

The biggest problem with the Xanatos's Pileup as a main reason for the murders on the island is that, for MetaBattler to achieve his ultimate goal of saving everyone on the island, piece Battler will have the ridiculously difficult task of discovering the different murder plots and finding a way to stop them all from happening.

Good luck with that Battler!

I'm not saying that's a reason for the murders in every Ep, I'm saying that was the reason for the murders in this one.

Just because everyone wants to kill one another doesn't mean that they actually do the deed... something would have to trigger that.

But yeah, I don't see how Battler can resolve this happily if that's the case.

[Workworkwork]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

I'm not saying that's a reason for the murders in every Ep, I'm saying that was the reason for the murders in this one.

Just because everyone wants to kill one another doesn't mean that they actually do the deed... something would have to trigger that.

But yeah, I don't see how Battler can resolve this happily if that's the case.

Just a few examples I can think of:

-Saving Maria from that evil bitch Rosa(Goddamnit Ryu07, don't push your double-standard on a genderbent Teppei and have HER be redeemed as apposed to a fat man!).

-Hooking up Jessica and Kanon.

-Getting George and Shannon to announce their proposal to everyone.

Basically, a matchmaker.

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by Tamad

Beatrice will probably cease to exist too, but apart from that the resolution that Battler has been trying to reach from the very beginning will happen.

I can see a teary farewell moment between Beato and Battler and whatnot.

Somebody posted the hypothesis that meta-Beatrice was a girl who liked Battler, or possibly a Witch Hunter who fell in love with the character of Battler she'd read about. Lambdadelta offered a deal similar to the one Bernkastel offered Ange.

[hodil]

I wouldnt be surprised if Beatrice was a homunculus/clone. Maybe Kinzo disguised his scientific researches with his occult hobbies. And created copies of Beatrice.

One Beatrice fell off the cliff, fulfilling the red truth of her death.
But maybe there was another Beatrice that fell in love with Battler?

But then again... there's the "17 people on rokkenjima" limit.

[Xapheron]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

The biggest problem with the Xanatos's Pileup as a main reason for the murders on the island is that, for MetaBattler to achieve his ultimate goal of saving everyone on the island, piece Battler will have the ridiculously difficult task of discovering the different murder plots and finding a way to stop them all from happening.

Good luck with that Battler!

Maybe Meta-battler, upon winning on the game board resets to the real world on 4th Oct with the knowledge of the culprit and manages to prevent it? But my take is that in Umineko unlike in Higurashi, probably a couple of people will die, 17 people is a whole lot unlike the <10 main cast of Higurashi.

Originally Posted by Workworkwork

Just a few examples I can think of:

-Saving Maria from that evil bitch Rosa(Goddamnit Ryu07, don't push your double-standard on a genderbent Teppei and have HER be redeemed as apposed to a fat man!).

-Hooking up Jessica and Kanon.

-Getting George and Shannon to announce their proposal to everyone.

Basically, a matchmaker.

Err, I think that would be counter-productive, doing no. 2 and 3 on your list would make at least 3 murderers (Eva, Krauss, Natsuhi).

[Workworkwork]

Originally Posted by Xapheron

Maybe Meta-battler, upon winning on the game board resets to the real world on 4th Oct with the knowledge of the culprit and manages to prevent it? But my take is that in Umineko unlike in Higurashi, probably a couple of people will die, 17 people is a whole lot unlike the <10 main cast of Higurashi.




Err, I think that would be counter-productive, doing no. 2 and 3 on your list would make at least 3 murderers (Eva, Krauss, Natsuhi).

My point was that he'd get the adults to accept the decision.

[June 1983]

I think that's probably the right track. The key to winning in Higurashi was to keep different bad scenarios from happening, things that seemed minor in the big picture but gradually added up into tragedy in the long run -- and then and only then were they able to successfully defend themselves from the big bad. If there are multiple murderers in Umineko, which I'm certain there is, then they are going to need to "fix" those sources of tension which set off the family members before they can face the ultimate evil.

These are the ones I see:

- Mend the relationships between the siblings, especially Eva and Krauss
- Mend the relationship between Rosa and Maria
- Both sets of star-crossed lovers are united
- Deal with Natsuhi's issues
- Expose Kinzo's death to the family

And then this may or may not be a "family issue":

- Battler's sin

[MeoTwister5]

It's pretty obvious at this point that the strained familial relations are at the center of the Rokkenjima struggle, the problem is we don't know how they all connect to each other that always leads to the murders of multiple people. I personally don't think this is a multiple murderer mystery.

Like I've said before a Xanatos Pileup that always ends in multiple killings by multiple people that somehow line up is something too difficult consistently line up by chance. There are simply too many compunding and convoluting factors for this to always be the case for the games. Also, the fact that different sets of people die in every game suggests that the perpetratos themselves vary if there are multiple independent killers. The mere difference in variation again introduces a whole slew of factors and issues that further convolute the scene.

In short, multiple killers that are independent of each other that possibly vary per game causes too many variables in victim and execution for the serial-quality of the killing to be purely coincidental. There are simply too many variables for it to be consistently believable.

[crazysjd89]

Well, seeing as this is a mystery and seeing as Ryukishi used 'those' in Episode 5 (IF you read it you should know what I mean), I think he'll probably explain all the murders and tricks.

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

In short, multiple killers that are independent of each other that possibly vary per game causes too many variables in victim and execution for the serial-quality of the killing to be purely coincidental. There are simply too many variables for it to be consistently believable.

This is not completly true, if you assume there is one mastermind in all arcs, and various factors in each game cause them to choose different people to carry out the murders.

In other words, one mastermind 'always' wants the murders pulled off for some reason, and will hire someone, who desperatly needs something, (For example, all the siblings need money, or bribe Eva with promises of being the head) who is on Rokkenjima to carry out or assisst him/her in pulling it off.

Of course, this mastermind could be off island or one of the 17 on island.

[MeoTwister5]

Originally Posted by crazysjd89

Well, seeing as this is a mystery and seeing as Ryukishi used 'those' in Episode 5 (IF you read it you should know what I mean), I think he'll probably explain all the murders and tricks.



This is not completly true, if you assume there is one mastermind in all arcs, and various factors in each game cause them to choose different people to carry out the murders.

In other words, one mastermind 'always' wants the murders pulled off for some reason, and will hire someone, who desperatly needs something, (For example, all the siblings need money, or bribe Eva with promises of being the head) who is on Rokkenjima to carry out or assisst him/her in pulling it off.

Of course, this mastermind could be off island or one of the 17 on island.

If there's a mastermind pulling the strings in all the arcs yes, it is very possible. He could easily be manipulating the perpetrators for his own ends and none of them are aware of him/her or each other.

However if there is none, and this is all purely based on multiple independent conspiracies, there is simply too many variables for the commonalities to make this into a recognizable pattern.

[June 1983]

I think put this forth in one of the anime-only threads, but my suspicion is:

There is a mastermind, and that person almost always engineers the murder of the first six sacrifices. (I know there is a big problem with this idea thanks to EP 5, but since I haven't played it yet, I'll wait until I have to see if I need to modify my theory.)

This in turn sets off the subsequent murders by one or two other murderers. The murderers vary by different arcs.

I don't know how anyone could think there were weren't at least two murderers in most arcs, because it's simply impossible for some of the murders in each story to be carried about by the same person.

Case in point: the murder of Nanjo in EP3. We know Eva murdered at least SOMEBODY (Battler), unless that scene is completely bogus, which would be throwing away the only filter for truth we have besides the red text (what Battler sees is usually accurate and true). Yet Eva could not have killed Nanjo, and Nanjo was killed by a human being. Maybe it was an accidental death, but since the culprit wasn't Jessica, Battler, or Eva, then it had to be one of the people who had previously been thought to dead, or an outside entity.

[MeoTwister5]

Well 2 murderers seem good, but I think it makes it likely that one of them is killed by the other one considering the circumstances of the final survivors. Thing is, with such a limited number of people on the island, more murderers mean more difficulty in survival. They barely made it out in Higurashi, and with Rokkenjima being isolated no outside help can be considered.

[Xapheron]

Like June said, probably there is a 'true' mastermind while consecutive murders happen because of paranoia(like in Higurashi) or greed etc. Too many inconsistencies exist like the victims' order/how they were killed; yet how the story plays out seems to point to some kind of main boss, at least to me.

Originally Posted by June 1983

I think that's probably the right track. The key to winning in Higurashi was to keep different bad scenarios from happening, things that seemed minor in the big picture but gradually added up into tragedy in the long run -- and then and only then were they able to successfully defend themselves from the big bad. If there are multiple murderers in Umineko, which I'm certain there is, then they are going to need to "fix" those sources of tension which set off the family members before they can face the ultimate evil.

These are the ones I see:

- Mend the relationships between the siblings, especially Eva and Krauss
- Mend the relationship between Rosa and Maria
- Both sets of star-crossed lovers are united
- Deal with Natsuhi's issues
- Expose Kinzo's death to the family

And then this may or may not be a "family issue":

- Battler's sin

And win the game against Beatrice and maybe(?) even face off Bern and Lamda.

[Sute443]

Speaking of Battler's sin, whatever is was happened six years before the main setting, right? Asumu died around that time, right? Do we know how Asumu died? I'm not saying he killed her, but there might be some sort of connection...

Originally Posted by crazysjd89

This is not completly true, if you assume there is one mastermind in all arcs, and various factors in each game cause them to choose different people to carry out the murders.

In other words, one mastermind 'always' wants the murders pulled off for some reason, and will hire someone, who desperatly needs something, (For example, all the siblings need money, or bribe Eva with promises of being the head) who is on Rokkenjima to carry out or assisst him/her in pulling it off.

Of course, this mastermind could be off island or one of the 17 on island.

I'd wager that if there is a mastermind, then it's Genji fulfilling Kinzo's last wish of the resurrection ceremony being performed. Circumstances can make him choose to bribe different people, but he's the most likely mastermind. After all, who else is likely to know the location of the gold (and thus be able to bribe people) in each game?

[June 1983]

I could have sworn she died in car crash? I might be misremembering though.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by June 1983

I could have sworn she died in car crash? I might be misremembering though.

It's never stated how she died. I doubt it's of old age, but EP 1-4 never elaborate on it.

[Ithekro]

It would seem that in order to solve the mystery and prevent the rest of the killing via multipe plots from various people on the island, one has to stop whoever is starting the chain of events of the First Twilight. That or Maria's Letter. Which ever one is setting off the chain of events (figure out why it always happens, much like Higurashi's two always events, until the problem is found).