[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 7 Requiem of the golden witch

[Leafsnail]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

Wouldn't really work with me, because it would need us to assume that every account of a stake being removed from a body would be purely fictionalized.
While that could be the fact with Kanon in Episode 1 (because he did it himself), it would be rather difficult with for example Kyrie in Episode 4. Battler removes the stake and comments how it seems that it was stuck into a bullethole after Kyrie's death. So we would have to assume that this whole event was made up, which is of course possible but too far into the realm of guesswork for my taste.

The point of a candle is that it can be full length or half melted. So there would be a hole in Kyrie's head which a candle was then stuck into.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Used Can

By the way, what have you guys thought about the guy who was blackmailing Natsuhi in EP5? I'm sure of you guys too noticed that person used 2 pronouns (Ore and Boku). What do you make out of that?

Personally, I think that may be an indication that someone is aware of the incident from 19 years ago, know who the baby is and is using Yasu. No, in fact, there must be 2 people, due to the 2 pronouns used. These people are also probably aware that Kinzo is dead. Whether they know about Yasu knowing the key to the Epitaph, I don't know.

What do you guys think?

Yeah it's been noticed since the start. Since the "man" starts using "ore" and then switches to "boku" it can be presumed that initially he wanted to use "ore" as part of his constructed character, but then switched to "boku" because he's more used to say that. If it was someone who usually uses "ore" he wouldn't make that mistake.

There are only two persons that use "boku" to refer to themselves: George and Kanon.

So there are high chances that it was Kanon, especially if shkanontrice is true. Even if it isn't, there are enough connections between shannontrice and kanon to think that Kanon could take the role.

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

The point of a candle is that it can be full length or half melted. So there would be a hole in Kyrie's head which a candle was then stuck into.

But then again the reason for them to be candles isn't there, at least it would be too inconsitent. Why would the culprit know which corpses will have the stakes removed from them so that he prepares a full length stake and not a half melted one?! And why then are the stakes sometimes fixed to the bodies and sometimes not.
It's not like it's impossible via Devil's Proof or them to be candles, but I see no consistent reason for them to be such.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

There are only two persons that use "boku" to refer to themselves: George and Kanon.

So there are high chances that it was Kanon, especially if shkanontrice is true. Even if it isn't, there are enough connections between shannontrice and kanon to think that Kanon could take the role.

Exactly my line of thinking.
It's also important that the person on the phone seemed to know certain things about Natsuhi that he could use to his advantage. Shannon and Kanon are the most likely people to know such things.
George would of course be possible due to his contact to Shannon, but it seems far less likely given his character description. He appears much too selfinvolved to actually pay so much attentation to Natsuhi and it was nowhere hinted during the first 4 arcs that he had special knowledge about anybody outside his direct family.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "fixed".

I mean that your theory sounds fine when it is applied differently for each Episode, but it seems rather incoherent if we take at least the first 4 Episodes into account. In Episode 2 it could very well be that it was a planned disguise, but why would Shannon and Kanon go along with that in Episode 1. Especially when we consider that Shannon seems to hold certain background knowledge about the 'true heir of Ushiromiya' it becomes kinda hard to assume that she would play dead and hope for the best (even though of course that could fall into the territory of the roulette).

It becomes even harder if we consider Episode 3 and 4, because why would the servants agree to go along with such a game? We basically have to major parties on the island, those who know about Kinzo's status and those who don't...why would they suddenly work together in faking their death with elaborate make up? If it was just the parents who guess about Kinzo's status, it could be a plot to scare the other party. If it were those who know about Kinzo, it could be a way to scare off the others. But the two parties seem to mix too often for it to be a plot to reach some secondary goal. <- secondary in terms of being not the primary goal within the murder mystery.

[Leafsnail]

Yeah, hence "stupid theory". But you do address something else that's important - how does the culprit know which stakes are gonna get pulled out? That applies regardless of how he's preparing them (since at least one of them (ep1 5th twilight) is definitely fake).

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

Yeah, hence "stupid theory". But you do address something else that's important - how does the culprit know which stakes are gonna get pulled out? That applies regardless of how he's preparing them (since at least one of them (ep1 5th twilight) is definitely fake).

Wouldn't it be the stake used in the 4th twilight which is probably fake? Kinzo was staked with the stake of Mammon and I assume you are refering to the fact that it reappears in the 1998 plotline, right?!

[Leafsnail]

No, I mean Kanon in the boiler room. Red text basically confirmed he faked his death, but he was seen with a stake sticking out of his chest.

You actually can't just say that the Stake of Satan is fake for this one, since it's pulled out of Natsuhi in ep3.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

It becomes even harder if we consider Episode 3 and 4, because why would the servants agree to go along with such a game? We basically have to major parties on the island, those who know about Kinzo's status and those who don't...why would they suddenly work together in faking their death with elaborate make up? If it was just the parents who guess about Kinzo's status, it could be a plot to scare the other party. If it were those who know about Kinzo, it could be a way to scare off the others. But the two parties seem to mix too often for it to be a plot to reach some secondary goal. <- secondary in terms of being not the primary goal within the murder mystery.

Option 3: the fake deaths are orchestrated by Shannon and have nothing at all to do with the Kinzo conspiracy. Shannon is offering to split the exorbitant amount of gold she found with everyone in exchange for about twelve hours of work helping her play an elaborate prank on Battler. Is there anyone on the island who would actually say no to a deal like that?

[Disz]

Originally Posted by jan-poo

yeah it's been noticed since the start. Since the "man" starts using "ore" and then switches to "boku" it can be presumed that initially he wanted to use "ore" as part of his constructed character, but then switched to "boku" because he's more used to say that. If it was someone who usually uses "ore" he wouldn't make that mistake.

There are only two persons that use "boku" to refer to themselves: George and kanon.

So there are high chances that it was kanon, especially if shkanontrice is true. Even if it isn't, there are enough connections between shannontrice and kanon to think that kanon could take the role.

georges name again?dear goooooood.

[Used Can]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Yeah it's been noticed since the start. Since the "man" starts using "ore" and then switches to "boku" it can be presumed that initially he wanted to use "ore" as part of his constructed character, but then switched to "boku" because he's more used to say that. If it was someone who usually uses "ore" he wouldn't make that mistake.

There are only two persons that use "boku" to refer to themselves: George and Kanon.

So there are high chances that it was Kanon, especially if shkanontrice is true. Even if it isn't, there are enough connections between shannontrice and kanon to think that Kanon could take the role.

I'd agree with this, but this begs the question, why? Sure, if we go by Shkanontrice, and that (s)he's the baby from 19 years ago, then could easily assume this is being done to "punish" Natsuhi, but I believe the bits we've learned about Beatrice is that she hasn't being doing these games out of revenge.

Now, something we can tell is that all these phone-calls led Natsuhi to behave in a very suspicious fashion, and to become the prime suspect. Why would Yasu do that? Not to mention that the Epitaph was already solved, and by no one else but Battler. Isn't this extremely weird? Oh, and let's not forget Hideyoshi's "death" in the same room this person had Natsuhi hide in. There's also the fact that Shannon was purposely marked as suspicious after the whole "summer" card thing.

I seriously don't think Yasu was the one making these phone-calls.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

No, I mean Kanon in the boiler room. Red text basically confirmed he faked his death, but he was seen with a stake sticking out of his chest.

You actually can't just say that the Stake of Satan is fake for this one, since it's pulled out of Natsuhi in ep3.

He actually wasn't seen with it sticking out of his chest. The fantasy scene showed him pulling it out, and then Battler found it lying on the floor nearby. The same stunt was pulled with Hideyoshi in EP5, where someone had already supposedly pulled the stake out of the corpse before Erika arrived on the scene.

[Helmet-kun]

Originally Posted by Used Can

I seriously don't think Yasu was the one making these phone-calls.

Battler couldn't have been making those phone calls, either-

...Well, unless they completely ignore the red that they stated in the same damn Episode.

But, back to the point I'm trying to make-

Those phone calls really don't make sense, because with Yasu, hell, even Battler, there were really no 'hints' that they hated Natsuhi...at all (Battler even tried to defend her). Jessica had more reason to hate Natsuhi, and she's, well, dead. Same with Kanon, actually...

We can, after all, say that the 19th person isn't the culprit, and just a person taking advantage of an unexpected situation.

However, the 19th person doesn't match up with anything. EP6 Natsuhi had basically no idea what Chick-Beato was even talking about when confronted about it, and if you consider EP1 Natsuhi... Well, she had more reason to throw Eva off the cliff than the baby itself. I don't know, but the story itself, to me, speaks of a Natsuhi that just had all her thoughts rationalized, but didn't stick to her own character...if that makes sense.

That, and if you follow Beato's claim that she killed that baby, and that she'll accept 'revenge' from that person, and you get...Beato killing herself, and willing to accept her own self-destruction (...Foreshadowing?)

[Used Can]

Originally Posted by Helmet-kun

However, the 19th person doesn't match up with anything. EP6 Natsuhi had basically no idea what Chick-Beato was even talking about when confronted about it, and if you consider EP1 Natsuhi... Well, she had more reason to throw Eva off the cliff than the baby itself. I don't know, but the story itself, to me, speaks of a Natsuhi that just had all her thoughts rationalized, but didn't stick to her own character...if that makes sense.

Natsuhi throwing that baby off a cliff does make sense, I think. As for why she reacted the way she did when Moetrice confronted her, Moetrice wasn't really making much sense, to be fair. In addition, that was something Natsuhi really wanted to forget; so, after 19 years, she most likely did, even if she ended up developing that constant headache.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Used Can

I'd agree with this, but this begs the question, why? Sure, if we go by Shkanontrice, and that (s)he's the baby from 19 years ago, then could easily assume this is being done to "punish" Natsuhi, but I believe the bits we've learned about Beatrice is that she hasn't being doing these games out of revenge.

Now, something we can tell is that all these phone-calls led Natsuhi to behave in a very suspicious fashion, and to become the prime suspect. Why would Yasu do that? Not to mention that the Epitaph was already solved, and by no one else but Battler. Isn't this extremely weird? Oh, and let's not forget Hideyoshi's "death" in the same room this person had Natsuhi hide in. There's also the fact that Shannon was purposely marked as suspicious after the whole "summer" card thing.

I seriously don't think Yasu was the one making these phone-calls.

If you go by that logic, then who could have a grudge against Natsuhi except Yasu? Ep7 makes clear that not only a detective novel is required to give you hints about the whodunnit and howdunnit, the whydunnit must also be hinted.
However there is absolutely no hint about someone hating Natsuhi or about a reason for someone to hate Natsuhi except for Eva, Yasu and Kanon (supposing he's not Yasu).

Eva however is excluded because she wouldn't kill her husband and her son just to have an excuse to beat Natsuhi up.
And with Kanon we have a problem because if he's not Yasu, then he's a servant and he can't be the culprit by virtue of the dine rules.

I think it's more probable that this whole prank wasn't done for vengeance, but for another objective.


Alternately, this can be explained simply by the fact that in the metaworld each personality is considered an individual. So Virgilia saying that "Beatrice" didn't act to get her vengeance, only refers to "Beatrice". And Beatrice doesn't consider herself to be the same person as Shannon. It could be that in Lambda's game Yasu was taken over by a "black witch" in a similar fashion of what happened to Maria in EP4.

BTW, yet again I can't help but to notice how the man from 19 years before seems to be working side by side with Erika.

[Renall]

At what point do we have any evidence whatsoever that the "man from 19 years ago" is the culprit? He claims to be holding Krauss, and we have some red that Krauss was killed shortly thereafter, but that doesn't necessarily follow that the "man" killed him. If there were a different objective at work here (for instance, intimidating Natsuhi into revealing Kinzo is dead), there'd be no problem with anyone who is able to do it doing it, as long as they're somehow tied to a group which has reason to scare Natsuhi.

Alternately, suppose Shkanon is not true (or is some Double Shkanon variant). Kanon has been known to fight "Beatrice." If Kanon knows Shannon was trusted by Natsuhi, and wanted to discredit Shannontrice in Natsuhi's eyes, what better way than to send her a threatening phone call with information only Shannon should know? This doesn't seem to have worked (at least, Natsuhi's internal narration doesn't act suspicious about Shannon), but it's not unreasonable to think it could have.

The other possibility is it really was Battler calling. He's not the culprit, we know that, but that doesn't mean he can't be in on some other scheme.

[Used Can]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I think it's more probable that this whole prank wasn't done for vengeance, but for another objective.

BTW, yet again I can't help but to notice how the man from 19 years before seems to be working side by side with Erika.

This is what I believe and what I tried to point out in a previous post. Natsuhi's behaviour ended up being perfect for Erika to pin her as the culprit. Hell, when this mysterious person ask her to hide herself in the closet of the room where Hideyoshi later would get "killed" it was rather blatant something is going on. Not only was she obviously forced in a position in which she could become a prime suspect, but the whole think looks blatantly staged, since no one could have possibly killed Hideyoshi.

Now, George and Jessica got killed at some point, which makes me think Shannon and Kanon couldn't possibly be involved in this. Although, even now, I find it terribly funny they showed no reaction, at all, after they got "killed". In fact, Shannon was even playing around with Gohda in the kitchen.

As for Yasu, this whole thing doesn't seem like her work at all, if you ask me. The situation, the reason and the Modus Operandi doesn't match with what we've learnt about her so far. In addition, I'm sure the whole blackmail done on Natsuhi wasn't done with the desire for vengeance, but to use her as a scapegoat whilst carrying out all these murders. Of course, this would pose the question, how did anyone (outside Yasu and her circle, of course) find out about the incident 19 years ago. I find it highly unlikely that this person (or people) just came up with some random story which, by coincidence, matched with something that had actually happened.

Originally Posted by Renall

The other possibility is it really was Battler calling. He's not the culprit, we know that, but that doesn't mean he can't be in on some other scheme.

Well, Battler's behaviour seemed terribly suspicious in EP5, if you ask me. First, he saw the corpses of people who were not dead. Then, (assuming ShKanon is true) he sees people who shouldn't be there - add Kinzo to this later on. Finally, he seemed to have taken part in some ploy which involved a letter and a golden ring. All these things are terribly suspicious if you ask me. So, either the scenes which are not seen by the Detective can indeed be filled completely with lies some times, or there's more about Battler than we seem to think.

[Renall]

Given that this was the point at which Piece-Battler was freed from detective obligations, it should be of interest to us to ask what Battler would do when not placed under literary constraints.

Or at least, what the ep5 author thinks Battler would do.

[Used Can]

Now, think what'd happen if Battler was indeed Amakusa. You do not join les Légionnaires if you're a saint.

[Jan-Poo]

But isn't it almost certain that the first twilight victims weren't actually dead when they were discovered? So you can't exclude that this was done with Yasu's complicity. And then again we need to accept the possibility that Yasu went in some kind of depressed mode and she doesn't care about everyone's lives anymore, since, sadly, there is huge evidence. This of course includes the persons she's supposed to love.

Even then I think that "Beatrice" never went inside the cousins' room since it is hinted that the magic circles are different than usual.

BTW, I'd be tempted to say: "see? It isn't Maria the one who usually draws the magic circles! Because if it was her, then she would have made even these ones and they'd look as usual!" If it wasn't for the fact that we now know that it's in fact Maria the occult expert, so why would Maria draw magic circles worse than Beatrice? Then again Beatrice is better at drawing, so that might be why....

[Used Can]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

But isn't it almost certain that the first twilight victims weren't actually dead when they were discovered? So you can't exclude that this was done with Yasu's complicity. And then again we need to accept the possibility that Yasu went in some kind of depressed mode and she doesn't care about everyone's lives anymore, since, sadly, there is huge evidence. This of course includes the persons she's supposed to love.

The problem is the cousins, in general, tend to die by the final Twilights, which makes me think Yasu tries to keep them safe as much as she can. For example, Battler and Maria always die at the 10th Twilight with one exception for each during EP3 (9th Twilight for Battler and 2nd Twilight for Maria). In Jessica's case, she reached the 10th Twilight in EP1, died during the 2nd Twilight in EP2, reached the 10th Twilight again in EP3, and the exact time of her death in EP4 is unknown, but she quite possibly died rather late. Finally, George also reached the 10th Twilight in EP1, then during EP2 he died at the 6th Twilight; in EP3 he reached the 9th Twilight, and in EP4, just as with Jessica, the exact time of his death is unknown, but he, quite likely, also died rather late. (I'd also like to point out Kumasawa and Nanjo tend to die rather late as well; the only exception being Kumasawa's death in EP3's 1st Twilight. But well, this is unrelated to my current point.)

So, no matter how depressed or dead inside Yasu may be, his/her behaviour and actions regarding the cousins, especially Battler and Maria has been rather consistent. Yet, in EP5, when the Epitaph was solved - and by Battler to boot - the cousins (but Battler) got killed first.

Along with this we know that in EP3 and EP4 the Epitaph the way the murders seem to be carried out is rather odd; for example, during EP3, even though the Epitaph was solved the murders kept on happening. In addition to this, during the 2nd Twilight no stakes were used (but, all the same, Rosa and Maria have never been staked; so, that may hint at something), and then some stakes were used in the wrong places. In EP4 some stakes were used, but I think the only person who got staked properly was Kyrie. Then we also have the issues during EP5 which I've already addressed.

Isn't it weird that the 2 episodes we know were written by Yasu show some consistency regarding the murders, whereas the others do not? I'd also like to point out that Yasu's episodes were written before the incident took place. So, although (s)he had some idea of what would happen, in the end, (s)he had no way to predict the exact outcome of this game, and things could have gone out of control. This is an issue EP3 and the rest do not have, since they were written after the incident took place, and thus the future authors have info, like Eva surviving for example, which Yasu clearly had no idea about.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Used Can

Isn't it weird that the 2 episodes we know were written by Yasu show some consistency regarding the murders, whereas the others do not? I'd also like to point out that Yasu's episodes were written before the incident took place. So, although (s)he had some idea of what would happen, in the end, (s)he had no way to predict the exact outcome of this game, and things could have gone out of control. This is an issue EP3 and the rest do not have, since they were written after the incident took place, and thus the future authors have info, like Eva surviving for example, which Yasu clearly had no idea about.

I'm not convinced yet the message bottle stories were written prior to the incident, but otherwise it's probable.

Another pro-Ange ep3/4 thought, though the world may think me mad: You ever notice how Battler suddenly becomes rather more adept at managing Beatrice's furniture and generally not being quite as vulnerable as he is in ep2? Sorta works with lionizing your beloved family. Of course this is in the meta-world, so we have to ask whether:

• Any part of the meta-world appears in the story. This would just be weird. Not impossible. But weird.
• If it doesn't, does this mean Meta-Battler isn't the actual reader, because his portrayal is also being shaped by the impressions of the writer/reader?