2010-07-01, 19:30 | Link #12361 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
|
Quote:
Both your example and mine leads to dead-end thinking for a detective novel... Anyways, I'll gotta stop acting like an old man ( "Git off my lawn!") and stop this grumbling. Well, what I'm suggesting regards to working with clues is just for those of us who want to prove we've figured it out before he outright tells us the answer. 8) Technically speaking if you just want to know the truth, you could wait till EP7 or 8 and you'll have your answers... some of them at least... |
|
2010-07-01, 19:50 | Link #12362 | ||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
|
Quote:
Certainly when he said that those who have found the truth are like the proud possessors of an extremely rare item in a MMORPG and he wanted to preserve that advantage as far as possible, he really seemed to imply that the objective of this game is to find and hold that "extremely rare item". Of course if you have 1000 items and you don't even know which one is the "extremely rare" one, it's as if you don't have it. I don't mean to say that you aren't entitled to enjoy this story the way you want, hell you don't even need to "play" it, you can simply treat it as a novel and nothing else. But there is an objective way this game is meant to be played. If you refuse that way you simply aren't playing, or you are playing your own game. Anyway in my opinion you are not really finding the truth. I mean... you are just digging up a lot of cat boxes. In the end when game will be finished all cat boxes will be opened and you'll have your truth. But then... you don't even need to dig up the cat boxes in the first place. The truth will come whether you are looking for it or not. Reasoning about this story only makes sense if your objective is to reach the truth before it's revealed. So it's all right for you if you want to try at random. But a scientist makes test. You can't simply make hypothesis. A real scientist job is to falsify theories. Quote:
So your point isn't wrong. We can naturally discuss and argue about which is a clue and which is not.
__________________
|
||
2010-07-01, 19:57 | Link #12363 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
|
Well, once you've gathered your 1 in a thousand rare items you can start using your idenfication spells to work out which is correct, by seeing which ones don't work, and which fit the facts best. Indeed, Battler says this - you can't just make one massive theory only to find it fall apart over a detail.
|
2010-07-01, 20:10 | Link #12364 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
|
Yes, that's right. But you need to use that "identify magic" spell. Experiments are the core of the modern scientific method.
Too bad in this context we can't rely on anything pragmatic. So we are bound to our logic. We have no choice but to create a certain set of logic rules and make every theory pass through that. Knox rules, red truths, are some useful tools. depending on how strict your "rules" are, you might get 1000 theories to pass or 0. If it's zero, your rules are too strict, and you need to lose up a little. If too many theories pass, then you rules aren't strict enough. You must believe that this game is solvable and that means the solution must be something that stands out among all the others. If it's indistinguishable from a sea of other theories, then the author didn't do his job right. It's like adjusting the contrast on your screen. You must adjust it until only one clear image stands out.
__________________
|
2010-07-01, 20:21 | Link #12365 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Hmm...
I think this suggests we should dissociate the Fake First Twilight, the real murders, and the epitaph solving completely. At least, it implies that Kinzo didn't want anything except the solution of the epitaph to occur. Here's a possible variant of Kinzo's plan: Spoiler:
So it has to be someone else. In Ep5, we are presented with a situation which looks like a Fake First Twilight occuring at the instigation of the Anti-Krauss faction, as part of a plan to get back at Natsuhi and Krauss and to get them to reveal Kinzo's death. This is supported by the letter-and-the-knock scene where I think there is no doubt that there were no letter and no knock, and someone (Kanon, probably) just brought the ring to Battler, and everyone agreed to lie about it. Then Rosa leaves early and creates the fake first twilight with herself as one of the "victims" who's bodies nobody even saw. Do we have any other motives for a Fake First Twilight in the first place? If we don't, can we suspect that this motive is active in all cases of Fake First Twilight? Quote:
If they did, it's a metaphor because it's impossible to smash that mirror at all. If they didn't... Well, I say it's still a metaphor because I don't agree at all with the idea that Beatrice somehow snaps out of the role if she sees herself in the mirror, because the first appearance of anything resembling Moetrice, in the end of Ep3, actually suggests she very well knows what she looks like, and is, in fact, surprised to see herself as Beatrice instead. There are no story-relevant material effects that can be produced with a mirror. Technically, yes, but I have a strong suspicion it is closely related to a research problem I've been thinking on for the past three years, and I've been generally looking for things that look like it in fiction -- which are far more common there than in published research. Since it sounds very likely we'll only get some of the answers, I need to look for the ones I need myself.
__________________
|
|
2010-07-01, 20:30 | Link #12366 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
|
Hmm... these two approaches seem comparable to Bernkastel and Lambda, heh.
I'm actually not sure if Fake First Twilight really explains that much. Sure, it leaves you vulnerable, but not so vulnerable someone would be able to smash 5 faces, open 6 stomachs or whatever without the others reacting. Hmm... how about they agree to take drugs to make themselves appear more dead (thinking sleeping pills here, not Romeo and Juliet stuff)? The twist: the culprit agrees to take the same drug to "prove" it's not a trap or dangerous. Hypothetical example - Shannon gets the other 5 to take the pills, after taking them herself, for the fake first twilight. Someone else then comes in and kills the others, before splattering Shannon in blood to the point where she looks not too unlike the others at a quick glance. Or perhaps someone else hears of the plan, and moves in to take advantage? Hmm... |
2010-07-01, 20:33 | Link #12367 | |||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Quote:
What if they're actually the same cat box, seen from different sides? Quote:
And let's just agree to disagree on something that should be everyone's personal matter in the first place. Disagreeing did not actually stop us from discussing things seriously with at least a semblance of common language so far, did it.
__________________
|
|||
2010-07-01, 21:04 | Link #12368 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
That's apparently not the only way, though. In Ep5, nobody trusted actually saw the bodies at all, and since they just woke up and left soon after, there probably was no drugging. In Ep3, the only body that comes up again is Shannon, who is shown to have been resurrected, too, which has to mean something more directly relevant to the material world than just George hugging a corpse and crying. In both cases, the victims are declared dead in red soon after anyway, which means there still has to be a way available on the island to quickly kill five or six people with no resistance or too much noise...
__________________
|
|
2010-07-02, 00:30 | Link #12373 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
|
The episode 2 FT always reminded me of watanagashi, but I just assumed that was because it was by the same author. Cutting out people's guts like that was what happened to Rika and Mamiya Rina (on one occasion) and it was what Takano called an occult ritual in Hinamizawa. I'm not familiar with enough mysteries to make any connections to the other FT's.
__________________
|
2010-07-02, 00:44 | Link #12376 | |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2010-07-02, 00:58 | Link #12377 | |
Homo Ludens
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Canada
Age: 34
|
Quote:
That, and he overthinks stuff. He's incompetent, after all. |
|
2010-07-02, 03:32 | Link #12378 | ||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
People are sitting at the table. Presumably with chairs which have backs to them, or they would fall off. Their wounds are not immediately obvious, in fact in Rosa's narration, she suspects they're dead because they don't move, initially, then notices the blood on the floor, then notices the wounds. Which basically has to mean she can't see the wounds until she's very close. The anime displays that in a way as graphic as it can be shown on TV. Now, if you just make a cut in someone's abdomen, the insides will not necessarily flow out, you have to look in the anatomical atlas to do it right. But let's presume they did. Now they have to make a few fairly precise cuts and possibly even dig around inside someone who's sitting next to a table. That's very little space to work in, so you need to at least turn them around with their chairs or something, then turn them back. It had to have happened in the chapel because of blood and stomach contents on the floor. Basically, if you found them seated and drugged in this manner, cutting bellies open is cumbersome and quite a lot of work. The only rational motives I can see to do it are to make testing for poison harder and to make everyone suspect that the drug was actually the murder weapon, these don't work all that well since nobody seems concerned about police or forensics around here much, other than as an excuse to leave the dead alone. If they weren't drugged and you killed them by wounds other than those in the abdomen, what's the point of seating them around the table? And if the wounds were faked by simply pouring copious amounts of coloured sugar syrup over mashed cookies, and everyone imagined the gory details, why exactly are they dead? It is not clear how close did Battler ever get to the actual bodies, and this mutilation in particular makes precious little sense, so maybe it didn't happen. Which is closely related to: Quote:
So yes, someone who doesn't expect the FT victims to be dead and instead expects fake wounds might remain unaware. We do have reason to suspect quite a lot of fakery is going on one way or another, not just with the first twilight. That makes Battler in particular even more incompetent for not noticing, since nobody asked him to suspend his disbelief, but I suppose it still works, he never takes this hand out of his pocket anyway unless it is to point at things. But once again, if the wounds are fake and not the cause of death, what is the cause of death? Poison or drug overdose? Hauling six bodies in the rain is problematic and extremely risky, so you have to somehow time it to when they are wherever you want them. Some wound that is obscured by the fake wound? Usual problems about killing six people in quick succession apply. Wrath of the Author?...
__________________
|
||
2010-07-02, 03:56 | Link #12379 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
|
Quote:
So without them, it seems like it's a clue that the people pick themselves up and relocate before they are killed. At least in EP1 and 5. In EP2, they could've been lured to one spot to fake their deaths, rather than told to go find separate rooms. This, once again owing to the lack of blood trails... |
|
2010-07-02, 04:34 | Link #12380 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Let us assume that nobody is meant to see the bodies so that nobody gets a chance to examine them clearly. Then, plan is that the FFT victims paint up the dining hall, and hide in the shed, while in the morning, Kumasawa reports seeing dead bodies. Upon coming to the dinner hall, everybody sees it all bloody but no bodies, search of the mansion grounds confirms that the bodies are nowhere to be found, and the shed is deliberately passed by, people only come out of it after the search is called off and the survivors are huddled up together somewhere. That raises two questions:
__________________
|
|
|
|