[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[chronotrig]

Okay, too much person counting discussion. Let's try something new.
Who is the final culprit? Even if Shkanontrice is true and Sayo committed all of the magic murders, that doesn't explain the man from 19 years ago or EP3.

So before I give my theory, I'll name the culprit.

Spoiler for culprit:

Nanjo's Granddaughter.
Please, bear with me, because it's less stupid than it sounds (I hope).

Spoiler for the problems:

In EP3, we have a huge problem with the Shkanontrice theory. Both Kanon's and Shannon's corpses are found for the only time in all 4 episodes (by reliable witnesses), so unless 2 fake corpses exist, Sayo cannot be alive for the second twilight and beyond. In that case, who is committing the murders?

Also, there is another, seemingly unrelated problem. Why would Sayo want to blow up the island? That doesn't seem very witch-like to me, and I don't think she ever wanted to kill Battler. By the way, my guess is the explosion was caused by gas leaking from the boiler. Kinzo's burnt corpse was used to mask this smell.

Spoiler for The answer:

The most simple answer is that there is an entirely different culprit who is using Sayo's actions to his/her advantage. This person has two clear motives: continue the murders if Sayo doesn't, and use a large explosion to finish of any survivors that Sayo might miss, destroy as much evidence as possible, and hide the fact that a crime had even been committed.

There are a few hints as to who this person is. First off, that 8-digit number written on the wall. Regardless of why that was placed there, it creates a big problem. Sayo was already dead at that point, and that number also appeared in a letter with Shkanontrice's handwriting on it. In other words, someone other than Sayo had to have known about what Sayo was doing before this person even went to the island. And that leads us to the next part...

Spoiler for The money:

Remember that the letters included cards that gave access to a lot of money. This raises a few questions with the Shkanontrice theory. How did Shkanon get the money? There are three possibilities: Kinzo paid the servants more graciously than we thought, Sayo sold some of the gold, or the money was part of a secret account that no one outside the family knew about. Sayo, as one of those closest to Kinzo, might have been able to get access to this account after Kinzo's death. After all, Krauss and Natsuhi couldn't have known about it, so there was no one stopping Sayo anymore. Any of these three ways should work.

We can't be sure why Sayo would give this money out to the relatives, but maybe it was to try and compensate them for the crime she was about to perform. After all, they only had an indirect relationship to the Ushiromiya family and might bear less or no guilt for any harm that was done to Sayo. Of course, if this is the case and Sayo decided not to go through with her mass murder (if Battler remembers his sin), she would have time to change the password for the account before the letters arrived. No need to compensate people for murders that never happened.

Spoiler for The Motive:

If this is the case, then the motive almost certainly goes to someone who was going to receive some of this money. Furthermore, it has to be someone far enough separated from the family that they won't be getting any money without this scheme.

On top of that, if you assume that the killer in EP3 is the same as the killer in EP5, then they must be "the baby from 19 years ago". This gives them an even stronger motive on top of the money: to kill the relatives of the man that took them away from their home, the woman who tried to kill him/her, and the servants who covered up his/her own death and took away any chance of his/her inheritance.

Spoiler for So, who is it?:

Taking all of this into account, it must be a character we have been shown, it must be someone who would have received that money, and it must have been someone who was on the island on that day. However, it could not have been someone Sayo knew was on the island on that day because why send money to a dead person? Isn't this a contradiction?

Well, as I've said earlier, there are only two people whose names are never said in red in Umineko: Shannon and Kanon. However, there are three people whose first names are never said in red: Gohda, Nanjo, and Kumasawa. Two of these people were declared dead in red at the first twilight in EP3, so it's impossible that they placed that 8-digit number on the wall. The only suspect left is Nanjo.

So why not Nanjo's son? Well, this may not be certain, but let's assume that the future scenes in EP4 come directly from the future of EP3. At the end of EP3, "Nanjo's" death is declared in red, yet we see Nanjo's son 12 years in the future. So unless Ange meets a fake, he cannot be the culprit. However, the TIPs for Nanjo's son mention that he has a daughter who is now dead. In other words, by process of elimination, Nanjo's granddaughter must be the culprit.

Also, we don't know if the ages match up, but let's a say that Nanjo's granddaughter was born in 1967. Nanjo was Kinzo's closest friend, so it's not totally unthinkable that Kinzo would ask him in this time of need, and it's possible that Nanjo would agree. In other words, Nanjo's granddaughter is the man from 19 years ago......

Spoiler for But was there any foreshadowing?:

Maybe there were some hints dropped about this. One thing a lot of people have been struggling with lately is the fact that Beato's furniture seem to match so well. If Shkanontrice is true, then Virgilia and Ronove match up with Kumasawa and Genji in several ways. In EP6, Kanon says that they were like a mother and father to him. The problem then becomes "who is Gaap?"

A lot of people seem to guess Doctor Nanjo because he's the only person left, but their personalities...uh...don't match at all. However, if the "Nanjo" during the game is actually his granddaughter, it makes sense that she's a girl, and it also makes sense that she is Beatrice's close friend (I don't necessarily mean that the two were close friends, though they probably were if Nanjo found out about Sayo's letters. However, while on the island, they are the two people most strongly supporting "the Illusion of the Witch")

Spoiler for The end of EP3:

There might be more to this, but EP3 can be simply resolved if Nanjo failed to kill just one person and this person went on to kill Nanjo before Nanjo could kill Jessica. The real "Nanjo" here isn't a doctor, so she might easily have mistaken an autopsy of just one person in a crowd. Eva kept having delusions that came true, so she eventually loses it and thinks a witch version of herself really was killing people. She then kills Battler and runs away into the forest, and just happens to find Kuwadorian.

What do you think, everyone?
Oh, and all established with info from EP1-4. The man from 19 years ago bit just makes the case a little stronger.

[Arkwright]

Originally Posted by Archer

As I said earlier, the problem that I have with this theory is that it directly CONTRADICTS what we already know. The entire point of the Knox rules discussion in Ep. 5 was that all of the clues necessary to solve the mystery were already present. Right now, there is nothing supporting your theory, while there is a lot of established premises that argue against it.

The "sign" comparison that you've talked about is also a bit off, since Ryukishi was referring to people that weren't sure if the mystery was solvable or not. The problem here is that you're assuming things that aren't specified anywhere in the story, and you're making a grand logical leap of faith. The entire point of Ep. 5 was to point out that all of the necessary components to construct the answer are already present, and you shouldn't need to do these kinds of things. If people can't come up with the same conclusions that you came up with, then they'll be left in the cold if that really was the right answer.

Your theory goes directly against what we know about Natsuhi as a character. In other words, your theory has no love.

EDIT: I should also add that this applies for the "Battler being the culprit" theory as well. Battler has not once demonstrated any sort of killing intent towards anyone on the island, while he has repeatedly continued to show compassion for even the hopeless of individuals.

I would say that a theory which refuses to answer the two questions regarding Asumu and Battler holds no love for the writer.

I've already said that "assuming things that aren't specified anywhere" is a valid method of reasoning. In fact, episode 4 tells us that this is how we have to fight against a witch. Fire careful shots one at a time and you'll never get anywhere. Instead you need a shotgun - take wide shots in the dark and your chances of "hitting something" will increase.

Spoiler for example:

I would offer Minesweeper as an example, but in addition to the times where you must make baseless mental assumptions and work backwards to find the one that works, there are also times when you are forced to make completely random guesses and you lose if you're wrong. So that's a flawed example.

You know those puzzles where... Well, for example, I give you a list of four people, Anna, Betty, Charlie, and Dan, who are standing next to each other in a line in a certain order. And then I give you a list of clues about those people and how they relate to each other, and you're supposed to decide the order they are standing in. Say, "Betty will not stand next to anyone who is older than her." "The person standing to the right of Dan is 18 years old." And so on. That kind of puzzle.

For simpler versions of that puzzle, if you just go over the list you're given a couple times, put the people in the places that follow the rules, and you'll eventually reach the answer. But in more complicated puzzles like this, you'll eventually reach a dead end. You've got people you can't place and you've got clues that don't give you enough information on how to place the rest. In that situation, you have to make an assumption for a moment and work with it. Maybe that leads to a dead end too, but you'll eventually be able to work backwards and find an assumption that allows you to configure things in such a way that all the clues that didn't give you enough information before can now fill in the holes and create a complete solution to the puzzle.

All of the clues you needed were there, but the puzzle wasn't easy enough that you could rely fully on them and get by without making a logical leap.

If Umineko isn't a giant puzzle of exactly that sort, after all the hints that have suggested it thus far, I would be very surprised.

So, I believe all of the questions, including the other Battler, should be answerable by episode 4.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "lots of contradictions." You said it goes against one thing: Natsuhi never treated Jessica as if she were not her own daughter, or ever indicated otherwise. But is there anything in her character that suggests she would? After taking care of her and living with her that long, I don't see why Natsuhi would even hint at Jessica not being her real daughter, much like she thinks of Kinzo as her real father and genuinely believes in her heart that she herself is a true, valuable member of the family.

As for Battler being the culprit, I don't like that at all, no. I only introduced that idea because it was technically possible if you bent the red like Shannon = Kanon must.

But in truth, I think a pre-planned mass murder is out of character for nearly everyone on Rokkenjima, Shannon included (not that Shannon = Kanon must imply Kanon/Shannon is the killer.)

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Okay, too much person counting discussion. Let's try something new.
Who is the final culprit? Even if Shkanontrice is true and Sayo committed all of the magic murders, that doesn't explain the man from 19 years ago or EP3.

So before I give my theory, I'll name the culprit.

Spoiler for culprit:

Nanjo's Granddaughter.
Please, bear with me, because it's less stupid than it sounds (I hope).

Spoiler for the problems:

In EP3, we have a huge problem with the Shkanontrice theory. Both Kanon's and Shannon's corpses are found for the only time in all 4 episodes (by reliable witnesses), so unless 2 fake corpses exist, Sayo cannot be alive for the second twilight and beyond. In that case, who is committing the murders?

Also, there is another, seemingly unrelated problem. Why would Sayo want to blow up the island? That doesn't seem very witch-like to me, and I don't think she ever wanted to kill Battler. By the way, my guess is the explosion was caused by gas leaking from the boiler. Kinzo's burnt corpse was used to mask this smell.

Spoiler for The answer:

The most simple answer is that there is an entirely different culprit who is using Sayo's actions to his/her advantage. This person has two clear motives: continue the murders if Sayo doesn't, and use a large explosion to finish of any survivors that Sayo might miss, destroy as much evidence as possible, and hide the fact that a crime had even been committed.

There are a few hints as to who this person is. First off, that 8-digit number written on the wall. Regardless of why that was placed there, it creates a big problem. Sayo was already dead at that point, and that number also appeared in a letter with Shkanontrice's handwriting on it. In other words, someone other than Sayo had to have known about what Sayo was doing before this person even went to the island. And that leads us to the next part...

Spoiler for The money:

Remember that the letters included cards that gave access to a lot of money. This raises a few questions with the Shkanontrice theory. How did Shkanon get the money? There are three possibilities: Kinzo paid the servants more graciously than we thought, Sayo sold some of the gold, or the money was part of a secret account that no one outside the family knew about. Sayo, as one of those closest to Kinzo, might have been able to get access to this account after Kinzo's death. After all, Krauss and Natsuhi couldn't have known about it, so there was no one stopping Sayo anymore. Any of these three ways should work.

We can't be sure why Sayo would give this money out to the relatives, but maybe it was to try and compensate them for the crime she was about to perform. After all, they only had an indirect relationship to the Ushiromiya family and might bear less or no guilt for any harm that was done to Sayo. Of course, if this is the case and Sayo decided not to go through with her mass murder (if Battler remembers his sin), she would have time to change the password for the account before the letters arrived. No need to compensate people for murders that never happened.

Spoiler for The Motive:

If this is the case, then the motive almost certainly goes to someone who was going to receive some of this money. Furthermore, it has to be someone far enough separated from the family that they won't be getting any money without this scheme.

On top of that, if you assume that the killer in EP3 is the same as the killer in EP5, then they must be "the baby from 19 years ago". This gives them an even stronger motive on top of the money: to kill the relatives of the man that took them away from their home, the woman who tried to kill him/her, and the servants who covered up his/her own death and took away any chance of his/her inheritance.

Spoiler for So, who is it?:

Taking all of this into account, it must be a character we have been shown, it must be someone who would have received that money, and it must have been someone who was on the island on that day. However, it could not have been someone Sayo knew was on the island on that day because why send money to a dead person? Isn't this a contradiction?

Well, as I've said earlier, there are only two people whose names are never said in red in Umineko: Shannon and Kanon. However, there are three people whose first names are never said in red: Gohda, Nanjo, and Kumasawa. Two of these people were declared dead in red at the first twilight in EP3, so it's impossible that they placed that 8-digit number on the wall. The only suspect left is Nanjo.

So why not Nanjo's son? Well, this may not be certain, but let's assume that the future scenes in EP4 come directly from the future of EP3. At the end of EP3, "Nanjo's" death is declared in red, yet we see Nanjo's son 12 years in the future. So unless Ange meets a fake, he cannot be the culprit. However, the TIPs for Nanjo's son mention that he has a daughter who is now dead. In other words, by process of elimination, Nanjo's granddaughter must be the culprit.

Also, we don't know if the ages match up, but let's a say that Nanjo's granddaughter was born in 1967. Nanjo was Kinzo's closest friend, so it's not totally unthinkable that Kinzo would ask him in this time of need, and it's possible that Nanjo would agree. In other words, Nanjo's granddaughter is the man from 19 years ago......

Spoiler for But was there any foreshadowing?:

Maybe there were some hints dropped about this. One thing a lot of people have been struggling with lately is the fact that Beato's furniture seem to match so well. If Shkanontrice is true, then Virgilia and Ronove match up with Kumasawa and Genji in several ways. In EP6, Kanon says that they were like a mother and father to him. The problem then becomes "who is Gaap?"

A lot of people seem to guess Doctor Nanjo because he's the only person left, but their personalities...uh...don't match at all. However, if the "Nanjo" during the game is actually his granddaughter, it makes sense that she's a girl, and it also makes sense that she is Beatrice's close friend (I don't necessarily mean that the two were close friends, though they probably were if Nanjo found out about Sayo's letters. However, while on the island, they are the two people most strongly supporting "the Illusion of the Witch")

Spoiler for The end of EP3:

There might be more to this, but EP3 can be simply resolved if Nanjo failed to kill just one person and this person went on to kill Nanjo before Nanjo could kill Jessica. The real "Nanjo" here isn't a doctor, so she might easily have mistaken an autopsy of just one person in a crowd. Eva kept having delusions that came true, so she eventually loses it and thinks a witch version of herself really was killing people. She then kills Battler and runs away, and just happens to find Kuwadorian.

What do you think, everyone?

Well, I would prefer a theory where Renon was imposing as Nanjo or Gohda. As she at least got mentioned one more time than Nanjo's granddaughter.

---------------

About Shannon getting the money to pay for the 3 families, all three suggestions had counter-evidence.

Shannon's wage was much more than we have thought: In EP2, George asked Shannon how much you had saved, she said "not much, only a few millions yen". What Nanjo's son saw was at least a hundred millions yen.

Shannon sold one piece of the gold: since the gold piece had no certificate, and it had the Ushiromiya family symbol on it. So it was very difficult to sell it on the market. And if one more piece actually channeled into the market, wouldn't the adults discovered it?

Shannon got secret money from Kinzo: Krauss was very sure that he controlled and overlooked all Kinzo's asset and wealth, only except the 10ton gold. Consider that Krauss was scraping for new cash all the time, he surely had paid a lot of effort to find if Kinzo was hiding some of his wealth.

------------------------------
I support my Kyrie=Beatrice=mastermind of course...

and this explained the money source of course.
------------------------------

The 19th man was IMO, dead 19 years ago. Kyrie knew this from Kumasawa and staged Hideyoshi's death so as to frame Natsuhi, by stationing Genji in that room beforehand, after she inferred that Battler was actually her son based on Rudolf's a few last words.

[k//eternal]

First off, a lot of these arguments sound good and the Gaap = girl-Nanjo idea certainly makes more sense than our good doctor being Gaap.

I guess the obvious first question to throw at this is, how does girl-Nanjo fit in the person count? Is the argument both that Shkanon is correct and that Erika doesn't exist, creating room for Person X who is girl-Nanjo?

If girl-Nanjo is supposed to replace Nanjo in the person count instead, that's a pretty hard mistake for anyone (especially "the detective") to make, I think.

I expect this is less of an issue, but also, does this violate Knox #1?

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Shannon got secret money from Kinzo: Krauss was very sure that he controlled and overlooked all Kinzo's asset and wealth, only except the 10ton gold. Consider that Krauss was scraping for new cash all the time, he surely had paid a lot of effort to find if Kinzo was hiding some of his wealth.

Well yes, I agree that this third option is the only truly likely one. After all, Lambda confirmed that all of the gold was still in the Golden Land on October 5.

However, if you think Kinzo couldn't hide money from Krauss, I think you need to re-read the start of EP5

The problem with Runon is that there's no direct chain to link her to the money like there is with my theory. My guess is that she does appear, but as the servant who was injured so bad that they had to leave because they insulted Beatrice. Obviously, if Shkanontrice was true, Sayo already had enough motive to dislike her before this final straw.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by k//eternal

I expect this is less of an issue, but also, does this violate Knox #1?

This violated Knox#1 and Knox#10, I suppose

[supertonia]

I have gotten comfused as to where the knox rules apply and how much >.<
Could someone explain me thta pelase?

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by ijriims

This violated Knox#1 and Knox#10, I suppose

Well, it doesn't violate Knox #1 because Nanjo appeared as soon as they reached the island. It's Knox's 10th that it has to worry about.

However, Knox's 10th doesn't give a timeline for when the evidence has to be shown. In other words, there must be some hint *somewhere" during the question arcs, but that's all.

Remember, Ryuukishi has repeatedly said that the game can't be solved until EP4.

Obviously, the toughest part is how she disguised herself as her grandfather. Maybe she made a mask out of his face...

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Well yes, I agree that this third option is the only truly likely one. After all, Lambda confirmed that all of the gold was still in the Golden Land on October 5.

However, if you think Kinzo couldn't hide money from Krauss, I think you need to re-read the start of EP5

The problem with Runon is that there's no direct chain to link her to the money like there is with my theory. My guess is that she does appear, but as the servant who was injured so bad that they had to leave because they insulted Beatrice. Obviously, if Shkanontrice was true, Sayo already had enough motive to dislike her before this final straw.

The portrait of dumb Krauss was a mis-representation from Lambda.

All the siblings knew that Krauss was extremely ingenious when it came to think of evil plans (EP1), and he was remarkably calm considering all through EP1-4 given that he knew that Kinzo was dead.

Krauss was not as stupid as Lambda showed. He may have mistrusted people often, but he was shrewd and cunning when the situation called for it.

Particularly when he was digging for money from Kinzo's account.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by ijriims

The portrait of dumb Krauss was a mis-representation from Lambda.

All the siblings knew that Krauss was extremely ingenious when it came to think of evil plans (EP1), and he was remarkably calm considering all through EP1-4 given that he knew that Kinzo was dead.

Krauss was not as stupid as Lambda showed. He may have mistrusted people often, but he was shrewd and cunning when the situation called for it.

Yes, but that's your opinion. The fact remains that you cannot say "Krauss would have discovered everything Kinzo hid". After all, he never found the gold, right? Or Kuwadorian.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Yes, but that's your opinion. The fact remains that you cannot say "Krauss would have discovered everything Kinzo hid". After all, he never found the gold, right? Or Kuwadorian.

At the end, the existence of some secret money buried somewhere by Kinzo was a devil's proof.

I cease here.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by ijriims

At the end, the existence of some secret money buried somewhere by Kinzo was a devil's proof.

I cease here.

Well, I'd say it's the opposite. We *know* that there was a large amount of money hidden by someone, right? Otherwise, what did Nanjo's son find? The question then simply becomes "whose money was it?" That's more substantial than a Devil's Proof argument.

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by the_rogue

Spoiler for EP6:

I've brought this up before, but the "You (Erika) included" part isn't in red, and that in itself is an overly simplified translation. The Japanese of that full sentence is:
…………申し訳ないが、そなたを迎えても、１７人だ。
Which (if I'm reading this correctly, again, and please correct me if I'm wrong) is a lot closer to "I'm sorry, but even if you were welcomed, there are 17 people." than "Even if we include you, there are 17 people."

And while welcomed can mean included in the count, I definitely don't see how it has to. Especially since a few sentences before Erika is humbly asking for a warm welcome, despite her status.

err... Unless I have a problem with my script...

Spoiler for Episode 6, end red:

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Well, I'd say it's the opposite. We *know* that there was a large amount of money hidden by someone, right? Otherwise, what did Nanjo's son find? The question then simply becomes "whose money was it?" That's more substantial than a Devil's Proof argument.

Money? No, from the epitaph, we could only infer that there was gold hidden and gold as the only material reward for the epitaph-solver.

IMO, the money belonged to Kyrie. She did not give it to Rudolf because she knew that he probably did not anymore as he was most likely going to die on Rokkenjima. If not, that means they were going to find the gold and he needed not the money from her.

All the other siblings needed cashes in a half-year's time (EP1), consider the "shady" enterprise Rudolf had been doing, he probably could find way to convert the gold into cash.

I cannot disprove what you said. But can you disprove my theory?

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Money? No, from the epitaph, we could only infer that there was gold hidden and gold as the only material reward for the epitaph-solver.

IMO, the money belonged to Kyrie. She did not give it to Rudolf because she knew that he probably did not anymore as he was most likely going to die on Rokkenjima. If not, that means they were going to find the gold and he needed not the money from her.

All the other siblings needed cashes in a half-year's time (EP1), consider the "shady" enterprise Rudolf had been doing, he probably could find way to convert the gold into cash.

I cannot disprove what you said. But can you disprove my theory?

Then why did Kyrie donate the money to Nanjo's and Kumasawa's family? And why give it to Ange anonymously?

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Then why did Kyrie donate the money to Nanjo's and Kumasawa's family? And why give it to Ange anonymously?

Consolation money for Nanjo and Kumasawa's families.

Consider that Eva should not survive, Ange getting 100 million yen (actually it should be her maternal grandfather getting the money, since a 6 year old probably does not know how to spend the money) so that she may live through much more easily.

She did not want Ange to know that she was the mastermind behind all. At least not when she was only 6 years old.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Consolation money for Nanjo and Kumasawa's families.

Consider that Eva should not survive, Ange getting 100 million yen (actually it should be her maternal grandfather getting the money, since a 6 year old probably does not know how to spend the money) so that she may live through much more easily.

She did not want Ange to know that she was the mastermind behind all. At least not when she was only 6 years old.

Well, definitely not impossible, but we've been shown that Kyrie is extremely ruthless when it comes to money. That doesn't disprove anything, but it makes it less likely that she would do something like that out of the goodness of her heart. In Sayo's case, on the other hand, you clearly have a very conflicted person with a serious grudge.

Also, are you suggesting that Kyrie is Beatrice? The letters sending that money had Beatrice's handwriting on them. If that's the case, Kyrie must also be the one what met with Maria several times and did magic tricks, among other things. Do you know of any reason Kyrie might have had for doing that?

[Arkwright]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Okay, too much person counting discussion. Let's try something new.
Who is the final culprit? Even if Shkanontrice is true and Sayo committed all of the magic murders, that doesn't explain the man from 19 years ago or EP3.

So before I give my theory, I'll name the culprit.

Spoiler for culprit:

Nanjo's Granddaughter.
Please, bear with me, because it's less stupid than it sounds (I hope).

Spoiler for the problems:

In EP3, we have a huge problem with the Shkanontrice theory. Both Kanon's and Shannon's corpses are found for the only time in all 4 episodes (by reliable witnesses), so unless 2 fake corpses exist, Sayo cannot be alive for the second twilight and beyond. In that case, who is committing the murders?

Also, there is another, seemingly unrelated problem. Why would Sayo want to blow up the island? That doesn't seem very witch-like to me, and I don't think she ever wanted to kill Battler. By the way, my guess is the explosion was caused by gas leaking from the boiler. Kinzo's burnt corpse was used to mask this smell.

Spoiler for The answer:

The most simple answer is that there is an entirely different culprit who is using Sayo's actions to his/her advantage. This person has two clear motives: continue the murders if Sayo doesn't, and use a large explosion to finish of any survivors that Sayo might miss, destroy as much evidence as possible, and hide the fact that a crime had even been committed.

There are a few hints as to who this person is. First off, that 8-digit number written on the wall. Regardless of why that was placed there, it creates a big problem. Sayo was already dead at that point, and that number also appeared in a letter with Shkanontrice's handwriting on it. In other words, someone other than Sayo had to have known about what Sayo was doing before this person even went to the island. And that leads us to the next part...

Spoiler for The money:

Remember that the letters included cards that gave access to a lot of money. This raises a few questions with the Shkanontrice theory. How did Shkanon get the money? There are three possibilities: Kinzo paid the servants more graciously than we thought, Sayo sold some of the gold, or the money was part of a secret account that no one outside the family knew about. Sayo, as one of those closest to Kinzo, might have been able to get access to this account after Kinzo's death. After all, Krauss and Natsuhi couldn't have known about it, so there was no one stopping Sayo anymore. Any of these three ways should work.

We can't be sure why Sayo would give this money out to the relatives, but maybe it was to try and compensate them for the crime she was about to perform. After all, they only had an indirect relationship to the Ushiromiya family and might bear less or no guilt for any harm that was done to Sayo. Of course, if this is the case and Sayo decided not to go through with her mass murder (if Battler remembers his sin), she would have time to change the password for the account before the letters arrived. No need to compensate people for murders that never happened.

Spoiler for The Motive:

If this is the case, then the motive almost certainly goes to someone who was going to receive some of this money. Furthermore, it has to be someone far enough separated from the family that they won't be getting any money without this scheme.

On top of that, if you assume that the killer in EP3 is the same as the killer in EP5, then they must be "the baby from 19 years ago". This gives them an even stronger motive on top of the money: to kill the relatives of the man that took them away from their home, the woman who tried to kill him/her, and the servants who covered up his/her own death and took away any chance of his/her inheritance.

Spoiler for So, who is it?:

Taking all of this into account, it must be a character we have been shown, it must be someone who would have received that money, and it must have been someone who was on the island on that day. However, it could not have been someone Sayo knew was on the island on that day because why send money to a dead person? Isn't this a contradiction?

Well, as I've said earlier, there are only two people whose names are never said in red in Umineko: Shannon and Kanon. However, there are three people whose first names are never said in red: Gohda, Nanjo, and Kumasawa. Two of these people were declared dead in red at the first twilight in EP3, so it's impossible that they placed that 8-digit number on the wall. The only suspect left is Nanjo.

So why not Nanjo's son? Well, this may not be certain, but let's assume that the future scenes in EP4 come directly from the future of EP3. At the end of EP3, "Nanjo's" death is declared in red, yet we see Nanjo's son 12 years in the future. So unless Ange meets a fake, he cannot be the culprit. However, the TIPs for Nanjo's son mention that he has a daughter who is now dead. In other words, by process of elimination, Nanjo's granddaughter must be the culprit.

Also, we don't know if the ages match up, but let's a say that Nanjo's granddaughter was born in 1967. Nanjo was Kinzo's closest friend, so it's not totally unthinkable that Kinzo would ask him in this time of need, and it's possible that Nanjo would agree. In other words, Nanjo's granddaughter is the man from 19 years ago......

Spoiler for But was there any foreshadowing?:

Maybe there were some hints dropped about this. One thing a lot of people have been struggling with lately is the fact that Beato's furniture seem to match so well. If Shkanontrice is true, then Virgilia and Ronove match up with Kumasawa and Genji in several ways. In EP6, Kanon says that they were like a mother and father to him. The problem then becomes "who is Gaap?"

A lot of people seem to guess Doctor Nanjo because he's the only person left, but their personalities...uh...don't match at all. However, if the "Nanjo" during the game is actually his granddaughter, it makes sense that she's a girl, and it also makes sense that she is Beatrice's close friend (I don't necessarily mean that the two were close friends, though they probably were if Nanjo found out about Sayo's letters. However, while on the island, they are the two people most strongly supporting "the Illusion of the Witch")

Spoiler for The end of EP3:

There might be more to this, but EP3 can be simply resolved if Nanjo failed to kill just one person and this person went on to kill Nanjo before Nanjo could kill Jessica. The real "Nanjo" here isn't a doctor, so she might easily have mistaken an autopsy of just one person in a crowd. Eva kept having delusions that came true, so she eventually loses it and thinks a witch version of herself really was killing people. She then kills Battler and runs away into the forest, and just happens to find Kuwadorian.

What do you think, everyone?
Oh, and all established with info from EP1-4. The man from 19 years ago bit just makes the case a little stronger.

I've said my thoughts on the general Shannon = Kanon = killer theory. The red in episode 3 can even be avoided with no problems if you assume a Person X was the Shannon who died, but that's not what you suggest here.

Well, there's the obvious. Knox's red, and a 19-year old girl disguises herself (and her voice) as her grandfather in front of the detective, and Nanjo's longtime acquaintance Genji, as they let this "doctor" carry away Kanon's body to tend to his wounds...

I don't know. That's already tough for me to imagine as a final revelation.

-I guess you'll have to handle this one. Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers!
If Nanjo's granddaughter killed her grandfather before she got to the island, then she is a murderer. Naturally, if she was wearing his face as a mask, somehow...

-When Kanon is attacked in the boiler room in episode 1, Battler comes rushing in. He observes: "The door had been left open a small crack, and it was obvious that someone had left through there in a hurry." Who left through the door?

-Motive. She is going to get the money regardless of whether or not the Ushiromiyas die. Why would she bother sacking (or hiding) her grandfather and heading to the island, if she knows that someone else already plans on killing them? If she hates them so much that she wants to kill them herself, why does she only "help" in episode 3, and why does Shannon die in the first place? She is not a murderer in episode 1 despite how difficult those murders would be for Shannon/Kanon to execute.

-Narrative precedent. Maybe it's just me, but for a character to have such strong personal feelings toward the family that she comes anyway even though she's going to get the money, I would expect those feelings to be indicated before episode 5. We don't really get anything about "Nanjo" other than that he is Kinzo's friend and isn't interested in the family squabbles.

[Marion]

Biggest problems with Nanjo's granddaughter being the culprit.

Spoiler for Responses to chrono's points:

#1: She has an incurable illness. I doubt she would be in the best conditions to move around and murder, let alone disguise as her elderly grandfather. Unless you think Nanjo and his son were both lying, for whatever reason.

#2: Although I do agree that in EP 3 there is most definietly a second culprit (Eva-Beatrice's presence on the gameboard can easily be seen as an allusion to a secondary killer) but why does it have to be this girl? What prevents someone else on the island doing the murders. The number can be explained - the person who wrote it was an accomplice. They realized that what was going on had to be stopped and wrote the code key for it.

#3: Why would Kinzo ask Nanjo for his granddaughter, when he has an entire orphanage of children? It doesn't really make much sense to me and I can't see Nanjo just agreeing to give his granddaughter away.

#4: Wasn't it stated that Nanjo's granddaughter had died a while after Nanjo died in her tips?

#5: Knox Rule #10 is an issue, as is Knox Rule #1. Nanjo's granddaughter isn't even mentioned until EP 3.

#6: If Gaap alludes to anybody its Jessica. She is NOT a servant like Ronove or a motherly figure like Virgilia. Gaap is suppose to be the best friend of Beatrice. If you go with the Shkannontrice theory then Jessica would be a perfect candidate, as she is Shannon's best friend. It also explains how Jessica knew that George was dead if she represented Gaap.

[chronotrig]

@arkwright:

Spoiler for size:

Originally Posted by Arkwright

I don't know. That's already tough for me to imagine as a final revelation.

-I guess you'll have to handle this one. Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers!
If Nanjo's granddaughter killed her grandfather before she got to the island, then she is a murderer. Naturally, if she was wearing his face as a mask, somehow...

I think that red text applies to the events on the island itself. It's very possible that Nanjo didn't actually kill anyone on the island in EP1. Remember that it was Lambda who used this red even though Beato refused to, so it could easily be worded in that way. In addition, since Lambda is talking after the game is over, it's possible that she's referring to Doctor Nanjo. A nasty trick that Beato would never use. Also, it's perfectly possible that Nanjo GD didn't actually kill her grandfather, but made a cast of his face or something.

For the time being, I'll put my one biggest flaw "disguising Nanjo's face" aside and see if I can make a theory that explains everything else satisfactorily.

Originally Posted by Arkwright

-When Kanon is attacked in the boiler room in episode 1, Battler comes rushing in. He observes: "The door had been left open a small crack, and it was obvious that someone had left through there in a hurry." Who left through the door?

Why not Kanon?

Originally Posted by Arkwright

-Motive. She is going to get the money regardless of whether or not the Ushiromiyas die. Why would she bother sacking (or hiding) her grandfather and heading to the island, if she knows that someone else already plans on killing them? If she hates them so much that she wants to kill them herself, why does she only "help" in episode 3, and why does Shannon die in the first place? She is not a murderer in episode 1 despite how difficult those murders would be for Shannon/Kanon to execute.

Let me add onto my theory to explain these two points:

Spoiler for Nanjo culprit theory:

Spoiler for Sayo culprit theory:

First off, I think that all the "roulette" references actually have some basis, and these references almost always refer to the first twilight. Furthermore, we hear that some risk must be present in all magic, so it isn't strange that the person responsible would put themselves on the line as well.

In other words, Sayo always chooses the first twilight completely at random. When she kills Shannon or Kanon, she continues on as the other, and whenever both die, she continues on as Beatrice. For now, let's just say that Kanon and Shannon were both chosen for the first twilight and that this somehow led to Sayo dying as Kanon (there is always a Shannon corpse lying around, so it might be a fake...maybe even Erika's)

Spoiler for Why does Nanjo help?:

First off, if Nanjo knows the whole story, she also realizes that Sayo is planning to stop the murders as long as Battler remembers his sin. That's why the letters with the money wouldn't arrive until after the crime was finished. Nanjo goes there to make absolutely sure that Sayo goes through with her plan, but also to plant the bomb and remove all the evidence. If the event were investigated as a crime instead of an accident, there's a greater chance that something might be discovered. Also, the explosion would remove most of the evidence itself. This ensures that the money Sayo sent wouldn't be found and that Nanjo herself wouldn't be implicated.

And, if Nanjo is the child from 19 years ago, it's possible that she wants to take revenge personally.

@Marion:

Spoiler for size:

#1: She has an incurable illness. I doubt she would be in the best conditions to move around and murder, let alone disguise as her elderly grandfather. Unless you think Nanjo and his son were both lying, for whatever reason.

#2: Although I do agree that in EP 3 there is most definietly a second culprit (Eva-Beatrice's presence on the gameboard can easily be seen as an allusion to a secondary killer) but why does it have to be this girl? What prevents someone else on the island doing the murders. The number can be explained - the person who wrote it was an accomplice. They realized that what was going on had to be stopped and wrote the code key for it.

#3: Why would Kinzo ask Nanjo for his granddaughter, when he has an entire orphanage of children? It doesn't really make much sense to me and I can't see Nanjo just agreeing to give his granddaughter away.

#4: Wasn't it stated that Nanjo's granddaughter had died a while after Nanjo died in her tips?

#5: Knox Rule #10 is an issue, as is Knox Rule #1. Nanjo's granddaughter isn't even mentioned until EP 3.

#6: If Gaap alludes to anybody its Jessica. She is NOT a servant like Ronove or a motherly figure like Virgilia. Gaap is suppose to be the best friend of Beatrice. If you go with the Shkannontrice theory then Jessica would be a perfect candidate, as she is Shannon's best friend. It also explains how Jessica knew that George was dead if she represented Gaap.

1. We only hear about the illness from Nanjo's son's TIPs and from Nanjo herself. There's no proof that it was the kind that would leave her bedridden or something.
2. If Shkanontrice is true, there can be no accomplice. Who else would willingly go along with the magic side of the murders? And would Sayo really trust anyone with that?
3. Sure, Kinzo has an orphanage, but he employs them as servants. Would he really want one of them as his successor?
4. It never said when Nanjo's granddaughter died.
5. Nanjo was introduced in the beginning, so rule #1 doesn't apply. If Shkanontrice is true, someone on the island must have been in disguise, and Nanjo's granddaughter is the only one who fits the profile.
6. Well, I never said Gaap has to be Nanjo, but remember that Nanjo's granddaughter isn't a servant either.