2016-02-13, 18:23 | Link #1 | |
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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Surpreme Court Justice Scalia is Dead
Quote:
this is going to turn the presidential race upside down.
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2016-02-13, 18:34 | Link #3 | ||
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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Quote:
make it none Quote:
for those Bernie supporterwho said they are not willing to vote for Hillary if Hillary becomes the nominate. You would be helping the republican pick Scalia's successor.
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2016-02-13, 18:42 | Link #4 | |
books-eater youkai
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
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Quote:
Hopefully yes, but probably more of a case of ''not as bad'' than ""better''.
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2016-02-13, 19:55 | Link #7 | |
Yuri µ'serator
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: FL, USA
Age: 36
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Quote:
Who has time for being sad or honoring the dead when there are political points to score .
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2016-02-13, 20:20 | Link #8 |
AS Oji-kun
Join Date: Nov 2006
Age: 74
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Back when I was wearing my political science hat I co-authored a couple of papers with a colleague on Supreme Court nominations. The current situation is the most tendentious. The President faces an opposition Senate, and the nominee will move the "median Justice" on the Court. Using data on all replacement nominations from Washington through Reagan, our model estimated that the probability of confirmation in this case is only 0.37. (Presidents making nominations that will not change the median to a Senate held by his co-partisans have the highest estimated rate of confirmation, about 0.93. The other two possibilities have rates around 0.75.) So even if Obama does nominate someone, the chances of getting it through the Senate are already well below fifty-fifty. Worse, our analysis showed that that probability is vastly reduced when the President is a "lame duck," as Obama is now.
Historically the Court has operated for reasonably long periods with just eight members so I don't see that as a major incentive to a confirmation before Obama leaves office. In fact, the current situation might be better for Obama on issues like the coal regulations that the Court stayed just last week. Without a solid conservative majority, cases like that will likely be put off until 2017 or beyond.
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Last edited by SeijiSensei; 2016-02-13 at 21:49. |
2016-02-13, 20:36 | Link #9 |
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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there are 2 theory of thought on who Obama should nominate.
1. a Moderate so his chance are higher in getting the nominate confirm. This would cement his legacy. The republican would confirm the Moderate becuase they really don't need a supreme court nomination battle in full public view. 2. Nominate a liberal and dare the republican to block the nomination to fire up the Democrats to vote in November.
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2016-02-13, 21:44 | Link #10 |
AS Oji-kun
Join Date: Nov 2006
Age: 74
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Obama's best option would be a justice somewhat to the left of Kennedy. That would move the median in his direction, but still be a nominee that the Senate might confirm.
The President derives little real benefit from nominating someone with more extreme liberal views as the median is unchanged regardless of how far left the nominee is. The best Obama can do is make Breyer the new median. (He is the most moderate of the Democratic appointees on the Court according to the scorings reported here.) If Obama were to nominate someone between Breyer and Kennedy, that person would become the new median. I don't expect to see the seat filled until 2017.
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2016-02-14, 00:45 | Link #12 |
AS Oji-kun
Join Date: Nov 2006
Age: 74
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I've considered Obama a likely candidate for a Supreme Court seat for some time now. I didn't think it would happen quite so soon though. It's not unprecedented historically either. William Howard Taft became Chief Justice after serving as President.
My other prognostication is that Michelle Obama will run for the Senate in 2020 to replace Dick Durbin who will be in his mid-70's. Her younger daughter will have started college by then, and she'd still be just 56 years old. Illinois elected a black female Senator, Carol Moseley Braun, back in 1992.
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2016-02-14, 03:50 | Link #13 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
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My condolences go to his family. However I don't agree with any of his choices or what he stood for. He never had any impartiality and was soleyl for strict conservative republican causes and I think the country will run smoother with someone else.
They might not even be able to stop her. If they go for the delay tactic, it could leave the judicial branch in chaos for years. It could blow up in their faces and they could lose the legislative branch to the democrats. I already think all of their candidates are too clownish to be taken seriously enough to beat either Bernie and Hilary.
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2016-02-14, 06:22 | Link #14 |
Takao Tsundere Cruiser
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Classified
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Wasn't he the Justice who made absurd comments like how gun owners can sell their guns to others without bothering to have the buyer's background checked or when Gay marriage was legalized by the Supreme Court, he went all "It's illegal as the people didn't get a say in this decision" but went "The people have no right to say in this decision as it's the Supreme Court's job" in another issue the people hope the Court would rule in their favor.
While i don't like his views, i respect he was a member of the Supreme Court. Condolences to his family.
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2016-02-14, 12:54 | Link #16 |
(ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻
Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2006
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RIP Scalia. You definitely made your mark on history.
The fact that we're still arguing about the intent of the second amendment centuries later should tell you everything you need to know about ideology and how the constitution is interpreted.
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2016-02-14, 14:26 | Link #17 | |
Yuri µ'serator
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: FL, USA
Age: 36
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Quote:
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2016-02-14, 16:04 | Link #18 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
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It will go to the highest bidder, remember this is the supreme court that said corporations have a right to donate as much money to a politician as they want thus selling out the American people. Sure there will be some drama negotiations but that position has already been filled
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2016-02-15, 14:15 | Link #19 |
Takao Tsundere Cruiser
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Classified
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A Brief List of Some of the Many Terrible Things Antonin Scalia Said and Wrote
Reading the things Scalia said and believe made me cringe. Abortion should be illegal because it was never in the Constitution? Really?! Had the man ever consider the people who wrote the Constitution didn't know or haven't thought about it? Just because it's not in the Constitution, doesn't make it illegal. The man gives this weird "I am the law so i am always right and if you disagree with me then you are wrong" attitude. No wonder he was controversial. Hopefully the next Justice won't act like their predecessor.
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