[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Sherringford]

Originally Posted by Moogleking

I really don't think it is that far-fetched to believe that the handful of officials that knew about the secret base died in the war, or ran away and didn't care about the extra explosives.

I think it's very far fetched. "Only a few high ranking officials knew about it" would imply that no low ranking soldiers were used to carry the explosives there in the first place.

Besides, that's...Really not how war secrets work. It's a fucking island full of bombs. It held no strategic value whatsoever. There is absolutely no reason to believe it was some sort of ultra secret.

And really, armies can't just suppress fucking islands full of explosives sold to civilians like that. If it was that kind of magical secret, it would never be sold to a civilian. It just wouldn't happen.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Sherringford

I think it's very far fetched. "Only a few high ranking officials knew about it" would imply that no low ranking soldiers were used to carry the explosives there in the first place.

Besides, that's...Really not how war secrets work. It's a fucking island full of bombs. It held no strategic value whatsoever. There is absolutely no reason to believe it was some sort of ultra secret.

And really, armies can't just suppress fucking islands full of explosives sold to civilians like that. If it was that kind of magical secret, it would never be sold to a civilian. It just wouldn't happen.

Can we just drop this line of discussion? Ive somehow been forced into a position of defending that interpretation when I don't believe it, and further discussion of it as if it were being taken seriously is just rubbing me the wrong way.

Put simply: Because of the various reasons why it's implausible, Claire's one line dismissing the explosives as being put there by the Japanese Army beforehand should be themselves dismissed.

Even if you get past the Japanese government allowing that kind of stockpile to fall into the hands of Kinzo, it still doesn't explain why they'd allow the gold to fall into his hands as well, since it would be impossible for them to fill the island with explosives without discovering the gold as well.

There you go.

[Mirrored]

Originally Posted by TehChron

Put simply: Because of the various reasons why it's implausible, Claire's one line dismissing the explosives as being put there by the Japanese Army beforehand should be themselves dismissed.

Even if you get past the Japanese government allowing that kind of stockpile to fall into the hands of Kinzo, it still doesn't explain why they'd allow the gold to fall into his hands as well, since it would be impossible for them to fill the island with explosives without discovering the gold as well.

There you go.

So, this isn't to challenge you. I too believe that a Boiler Room explosion is more likely than 900 tons of explosives.

However, here's the counterpoint:

The setting is towards the end of the war, near the time when the Japanese government was collapsing. The island itself had not communicated that it had the gold. While the Guts of the story show that Kinzo's idea was to move on the gold, odds are more than a few people wanted it.

So anyways, the army and the government collapsed and rebuilt after the surrender of WW2. It wouldn't be impossible to slip a lot by the military. Kinzo does say it's one of his greatest accomplishments.

I prefer a boiler room explosion, but I also know that Kinzo, could probably bribe enough people to get that base to disappear or be written off as a loss. It would be hard as hell, but it could be done.

Things slip through the cracks, especially in a post-war setting. All over collapsed former soviet satellites you could get a good amount of weapons/missiles/tanks. It's not as far out there as you would think.

[TehChron]

Kinzo didnt have any control of the situation during the war at the point which the Japanese Military would have been stockpiling the place with explosives.

In addition, Kinzo could not have hid 100 tons of Gold Bars successfully on his own. There's simply far too many reasons why it couldn't happen. You don't "know" that Kinzo did anything, especially since it wasn't foreshadowed. When it came to acquiring the island in the first place, Kinzo relied on contacts with the occupation forces rather than the Japanese government itself. He wouldn't have bribed any of them, as he wouldnt have needed to.

The point here is that the fact that the Gold still existed on the island, pretty much undisturbed, when Kinzo bought Rokkenjimma, means that the Japanese Army planting 900 tons of explosives throughout the island with James Bond Villain logic is a load, plain and simple.

[Mirrored]

Explanations:

1) The island was rigged with explosives, in the event that Americans attempted to capture or occupy the base, they would Kamikaze. Kinzo just changed where the Det-Cord went.

If you look at Iwojima, this is not too unrealistic.

2) The explosives are all in a centralized location on the island, presumably stored for later use. That location is the epicenter of the explosion, which is strong enough to make the 2km wide crater. Thus no moving was really involved, just grab det-cord, string it to all the packages, and you're gtg.

---

The place was allegedly stockpiled with explosives as part of a counter attack strategy. That was foreshadowed.

Moving 20 tons of gold bars is not impossible, given a crane/forklift, etc.

However, it's more likely that the Japanese Military never inspected the area.

To accomplish this would be really difficult. But probably doable. Just bribe everyone who knows about it and try to get it wiped from records.

---

It actually doesn't matter too much.

We know the gold is there, how Kinzo hid it is a mystery. But it is there and he did successfully hide it. We could spend hours going over this, and while it would still be more productive than conversations about Jesus symbolism, it would still be nearly useless.

I don't think they are going to get into a technical breakdown of how he did it, but its doable.

Summary:

1) Explosives were there before Kinzo.
2a) They were either part of a self-destruct plan to take out occupying americans. or
2b) stored in a central location for later use.
3) Kinzo ends up killing off everyone on the island.
4) Kinzo bribes, deceives, and otherwise gets compliance from many people to keep the base on lock.
5) When he later buys the island, he then sets things up and has all the resources in the world to do it.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Mirrored

Explanations:

1) The island was rigged with explosives, in the event that Americans attempted to capture or occupy the base, they would Kamikaze. Kinzo just changed where the Det-Cord went.

If you look at Iwojima, this is not too unrealistic.

Timeline issue. At the time of gold arriving and Kinzo's story, those explosives were not rigged there, as the base was still somewhat under construction and still completely undermanned and understocked. They had yet to see a single submarine, right?

2) The explosives are all in a centralized location on the island, presumably stored for later use. That location is the epicenter of the explosion, which is strong enough to make the 2km wide crater. Thus no moving was really involved, just grab det-cord, string it to all the packages, and you're gtg.

The gold was placed in the cave, one of only three possible dock points into the island proper, and the only one actually outfitted by the Japanese military.

The place was allegedly stockpiled with explosives as part of a counter attack strategy. That was foreshadowed.

Moving 20 tons of gold bars is not impossible, given a crane/forklift, etc.

However, it's more likely that the Japanese Military never inspected the area.

To accomplish this would be really difficult. But probably doable. Just bribe everyone who knows about it and try to get it wiped from records.

Kinzo had access to none of these during the war. And if the Japanese military never inspected it, why go through the trouble of investing 900 tons worth of explosives?

Not to mention the fact that bribes are not a cure all for anything.

It actually doesn't matter too much.

We know the gold is there, how Kinzo hid it is a mystery. But it is there and he did successfully hide it. We could spend hours going over this, and while it would still be more productive than conversations about Jesus symbolism, it would still be nearly useless.

Just because the Japanese government didn't find it does not mean that Kinzo was able to hide it.

At all. A forklift? Don't be ridiculous, do you really think arranging for a forklift to be bought and then sailed out to a deserted island wouldnt draw attention? Even if we allow for Kinzo being somehow able to do so while still enlisted?

I don't think they are going to get into a technical breakdown of how he did it, but its doable.

It's not.

Summary:

1) Explosives were there before Kinzo.
2a) They were either part of a self-destruct plan to take out occupying americans. or
2b) stored in a central location for later use.

1) is ridiculous. You don't just plant 900 tons of explosives and then not use the damn place. If you want to make a trap, it has to be one that's guaranteed to be successful, and that requires good bait.

A half-assed cave for parking submarines isn't nearly enough to justify that kind of investment on the part of the japanese army.

3) Kinzo ends up killing off everyone on the island.
4) Kinzo bribes, deceives, and otherwise gets compliance from many people to keep the base on lock.

That is so naive I dont even know where to begin.

5) When he later buys the island, he then sets things up and has all the resources in the world to do it.

No, he doesn't. The wealth of the Ushiromiya family was mostly controlled by the Elders of the family in the first place. So he doesnt have the means to hide the gold on his own. Nor does he have the money to even set up such a complex project and then guarantee the silence of all involved parties.

So...yeah. No.

And Ssol, I really liked reading that. It's a great way to look at Author theory.

[Kirroha]

I wonder if Ep8 will end with the line "Sleep peacefully, my most beloved witch, Beatrice."

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Mirrored

Explanations:

1) The island was rigged with explosives, in the event that Americans attempted to capture or occupy the base, they would Kamikaze. Kinzo just changed where the Det-Cord went.

If you look at Iwojima, this is not too unrealistic.

I look at Iwo Jima and I don't see any self destruction device involving unrealistic amount of explosives.

I really do not remember any case in the real world where a military base actually had a self destruct system of that sort. How is that realistic?

You might also consider the fact that even during nuclear explosion simulations performed by Americans a similar amount of TNT was never reached.

That stuff is not cheap. Who in his right mind would waste that huge amount to destroy an island with absolutely no strategic value?


1kg of TNT can costs about 70$ (and TNT is one of the least expensive explosives), it's like burning 63 million dollars.
That's about 1/4 of the value of the 10 tons of gold!

Originally Posted by Mirrored

4) Kinzo bribes, deceives, and otherwise gets compliance from many people to keep the base on lock.

It doesn't work because at that time Kinzo wasn't rich at all. He made that huge fortune with the gold not before getting the gold, and for a while he couldn't even get to the island.
The story is quite clear in stating that Kinzo was questioned by the military as soon as the incident happened. It's unthinkable that no one was sent to investigate the area in the mean time.

It's at that very time that it was necessary to bribe people, but at that time Kinzo had absolutely no power.


I think the only way you can explain this is by postulating that the Italians and the Japanese hid the gold even before reaching an agreement on what to do about it.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I look at Iwo Jima and I don't see any self destruction device involving unrealistic amount of explosives.

I really do not remember any case in the real world where a military base actually had a self destruct system of that sort. How is that realistic?

You might also consider the fact that even during nuclear explosion simulations performed by Americans a similar amount of TNT was never reached.

That stuff is not cheap. Who in his right mind would waste that huge amount to destroy an island with absolutely no strategic value?




It doesn't work because at that time Kinzo wasn't rich at all. He made that huge fortune with the gold not before getting the gold, and for a while he couldn't even get to the island.
The story is quite clear in stating that Kinzo was questioned by the military as soon as the incident happened. It's unthinkable that no one was sent to investigate the area in the mean time.

It's at that very time that it was necessary to bribe people, but at that time Kinzo had absolutely no power.


I think the only way you can explain this is by postulating that the Italians and the Japanese hid the gold even before reaching an agreement on what to do about it.

Thats fine if it's just a cursory thing, it just requires the manpower to move the gold out of the submarine dock into a place you wouldn't know about unless you know the area a bit.

The problem is if you assume that afterwards the Japanese went through the trouble of planting 900 tons of explosives and then making the place a key base or whatever, and then somehow wound up not finding the gold in spite of that.

[Moogleking]

The island was rigged up to explode as part of building the base in the hopes the Americans would attack and they could blow them up.
The base was never finished, because the Japanese lost the war.
Most likely, they had already started hiding the gold before everyone died. They wanted to get that stuff out of plain sight ASAP. There must have been military construction equipment already on the island anyways.
Nobody inspected the island afterwards because everyone that knew of it was dead.

I don't really see what the point is arguing against this. The gold is on the island, it is hidden, nobody in the government knows about it, and there is a bomb of some sort. That's just something we have to live with.

[delita-umw-]

@TehChron
Isn't relying on Kinzo's timeline kind of difficult? I feel like there's too much contradictory information to just straight up trust what he says other than the most basic of facts, IE trust that he was on a military base (fact), don't trust that the base was understocked (possibly an opinion).

Not saying that you're wrong, just pointing out that you probably should keep in mind that the guy you're getting this info from is also known for OH DESIRE, raping his daughter who's he's deluded himself into believing is a reincarnation of his lover, and supposedly set-up a clock to destroy an entire island with his family and servants if he didn't find inspiration.

[Jan-Poo]

I don't really see what the point is arguing against this. The gold is on the island, it is hidden, nobody in the government knows about it, and there is a bomb of some sort. That's just something we have to live with.

No we don't have to live with it

There is no bomb, that's just a lie that brainless conspiracy theorists made up.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Moogleking

The island was rigged up to explode as part of building the base in the hopes the Americans would attack and they could blow them up.
The base was never finished, because the Japanese lost the war.
Most likely, they had already started hiding the gold before everyone died. They wanted to get that stuff out of plain sight ASAP. There must have been military construction equipment already on the island anyways.
Nobody inspected the island afterwards because everyone that knew of it was dead.

I don't really see what the point is arguing against this. The gold is on the island, it is hidden, nobody in the government knows about it, and there is a bomb of some sort. That's just something we have to live with.

Hiding stuff in a series of natural caves is completely different from a full on construction project to hide 100 tons of damn near anything. The first just requires some time and enough manpower. The latter requires a hell of a lot more.

And 900 tons of TNT isn't something that's thrown about on a damn whim. That is a god damn lot of explosives, especially in a wartime situation. And everyone that knew of the island was dead? Including the people that assigned the garrison and commissioned it's construction in the first place?

They really abandoned 900 tons of explosives in an unfinished, unmanned base when McArthur and Nimitz were breathing down their necks? That's stupid. Even if we leave out the specifics, that's still ridiculous.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

@TehChron
Isn't relying on Kinzo's timeline kind of difficult? I feel like there's too much contradictory information to just straight up trust what he says other than the most basic of facts, IE trust that he was on a military base (fact), don't trust that the base was understocked (possibly an opinion).

Not saying that you're wrong, just pointing out that you probably should keep in mind that the guy you're getting this info from is also known for OH DESIRE, raping his daughter who's he's deluded himself into believing is a reincarnation of his lover, and supposedly set-up a clock to destroy an entire island with his family and servants if he didn't find inspiration.

If we're questioning that much of the story, then you're throwing out Theatergoing authority in it's entirety as a means to convey information (another can of worms) outside of some convenient visuals, and pretty much just going with pure, baseless speculation.

Well, if you want to speculate in the dark, be my guest.

[delita-umw-]

I'm not saying that Theatergoing authority is useless per se, because we get a lot of useful information out of both Maria and Jessica. I'm just really calling into question Kinzo, because it seems everything he describes in that story seems fishy.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

I'm not saying that Theatergoing authority is useless per se, because we get a lot of useful information out of both Maria and Jessica. I'm just really calling into question Kinzo, because it seems everything he describes in that story seems fishy.

So then why should we give Jessica or Maria's story any weight? Any more than Kinzo's, really?

What's your basis outside of "well I like them more", or something like that? If we take Shkannon at face value, then Jessica is a complete idiot, and Maria's probably a bit insane.

[Jan-Poo]

Well I've been speculating that Jessica knows about Shkanon for a while now... EP6 seems to hint that...

[Moogleking]

Why are you guys so ready to throw away everything about that backstory, except for that 900 tons? It isn't guaranteed there is that much explosives. I doubt it is all just completely false.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Moogleking

Why are you guys so ready to throw away everything about that backstory, except for that 900 tons? It isn't guaranteed there is that much explosives. I doubt it is all just completely false.

The irony being that the 900 tons isnt even part of that backstory, it's just a line or two used to explain the threat of the clock mechanism. It's not even really verified by anything.

[delita-umw-]

The reason why I trust Jessica's and Maria's stories more than Kinzo's? Cause I'm treating theatergoing authority similar to my understanding of author theory. I'd actually argue the theatergoing authority is author theory forcibly being read from their own perspective rather than someone else reading for them. Maria's description of how she met Beato and why she wants to be a witch are within what I'd call her "character" and doesn't openly contradict what we know/she describes. Same thing goes for Jessica.

But Kinzo? We immediately have contradictions that make me suspicious. He wants to sign up for the war so he can die, yet he tells his superiors he has good knowledge in foreign languages and I think engineering(?), stuff that you would normally do to keep yourself from being a grunt. The base is understocked yet there's somehow 900 tons of explosives for his personal clock bomb. His description of Yamamoto(?) contradicts what we're shown during the tea party as well as Kinzo's description. Kinzo is also the guy who started off as ridiculously epic, to a somewhat normal if eccentric patriarch, to an absolutely epic character again.

Sure, if you want to reduce it to the absolute base level, I "like" Jessica and Maria more. But I don't think I'm unjustified in not trusting everything Kinzo says.