Madoka Magica - Spoilers & Speculation

[Kaijo]

Originally Posted by Sol Falling

The point of asking you to prove the point of the first above paragraph to say, that 'extending the life of the universe' by fulfilling his race's own energy needs is exactly what Kyuubey is doing.

Because it's a non-starter of an argument. Stars are going to radiate their energy regardless if someone is there to collect it or not. And when you understand exactly how much energy a single star puts out, you realize that it's stupid to go collecting energy when you have something readily available and already generating energy. Why go through a whole complex scheme for energy, when you already have a power plant humming away?

If we cover a small fraction of the Sahara desert in solar panels, then the energy collected during the day would be enough to power our entire civilization. Think about that; an incredibly small fraction of the light energy radiated by our sun, can power all our electrical requirements.

Now think what you can do if you could harness half of the sun's output. Or even all of it. Now considering you have that energy, which is going to go to waste either way... why come up with this scheme?

If you still think this is a good idea, then give me your car. I'll trade it for this other car I've developed that only works 30% of the time.

It doesn't matter if every star is going to burn away eventually. So long as Kyuubey's race is able to find up with some method to create new stars, then the universe still exists and life can survive in it.

Oh, it's very possible to create new stars. There has been theoretical talk around about how you'd need to gather enough mass together to convert planets into stars. But all this is doing, what our sun is doing, is burning fuel. Once that fuel is gone, the star goes dark. So even if we start running out of stars in a few trillion years, we should be technologically advanced enough to gather materials from across space together to ignite new stars. That should give us a few more billion years.

This is still a very optimistic and hypothetical expectation. No matter how quick the progress of technological innovation, there is nothing to say, even in 7 billion years time, that any civilization could learn to warp the fundamental laws of reality.

This is true. But given the historical progress of man... well, some people said we'd never make flying objects heavier than air. Or walk on the moon. It's been my opinion, that whenever someone says we never will do something, that they are most likely wrong. We already change reality around us with scientific knowledge. I see no reason to doubt we will stop being able to do so in the future. With more time, comes more scientific understanding of how everything works.

And worst case scenario: After several trillion years, we die out with the rest of the universe.

Originally Posted by Jimmy C

But you avoided answering my question. If only one tiny part of the universe continues to burn with light, can the universe "as a whole" still be said to continue to exist?

I'd say so. Given that only a small fraction of the universe burns with light currently. =)

And what's the worldwide death rate for under-18 girls?
Every magical girl that avoids death will eventually become a witch. It doesn't matter if it takes one, ten or even a hundred years. Do you think he cares either way?

Oh, I believe he feels like he knows what he's saying. I'm just calling his plan bad. And there seems to be confusion about my 30% figure, so allow me to clarify that.

Loop 1: 2 magical girls die
Loop 2: 1 MG dies, 1 becomes a witch
Loop 3: 3 MGs die, 1 becomes a witch
Loop 4: 1 MG becomes a witch
Loop 5 (current timeline): 2 MG's die, 1 becomes a witch

This is just the onscreen confirmations we have. In most loops, we don't know what happens to the other girls.

Out of a sample size of 12 girls, in various repeated experiments, 8 girls die, and 4 become witches. So more specifically, 33.333333% of magical girls become witches, while 66.666667% of girls end up dying before that point. It may be just my opinion, but those are fairly horrible odds to bet the future of the universe on. That was the whole reason for the Rayearth method to showcase why the current Kyube plan is stupid on the face of it. With a little thinking, one can greatly increase the percentage of girls that survive to witch-hood.

This is why I compare Kyube to a weather forecaster. He makes a statement he believes, but can still end up being wrong. A weather forecaster may say that it will rain this week, and out of 7 days, it only rains for a bit on Friday. Technically, he's right. But he's right in a way that ultimately makes his statement meaningless.

That's why Gen doesn't quite understand what he's done, at least at this point in time. Kyube's race is one of the dumbest advanced races I've ever seen. Then again, maybe they have Republicans in their government, too, with private contractors getting kickbacks and subsidies for promoting an incredibly stupid energy generation plan.

[cyberdragon]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Out of a sample size of 12 girls, in various repeated experiments, 8 girls die, and 4 become witches. So more specifically, 33.333333% of magical girls become witches, while 66.666667% of girls end up dying before that point. It may be just my opinion, but those are fairly horrible odds to bet the future of the universe on. That was the whole reason for the Rayearth method to showcase why the current Kyube plan is stupid on the face of it. With a little thinking, one can greatly increase the percentage of girls that survive to witch-hood.

I don't think that this makes a very good sample, considering that this isn't 12 different girls. It is the same characters, and events only diverge in a relatively short time period compared to what happens to them in the end so we don't know how they would compare to other possible magical girls.

For your alternate Rayearth method, the problem is that Kyubey seems to think efficiency is very important. He is trying to get as much energy as possible from magical girls while using the least amount possible to do so. This is why he is focusing on young girls, he said that they provide the largest amount of energy.
Maintaining a fake magical world would require a lot of energy which might not make up for larger amount gained from each magical girl. Kyubey would have to create the monsters for the girls to fight which could require more energy than the additional amount gained from the girl. It also isn't necessary to guarantee that they become witches. Since magic defies entropy, any use of it will help Kyubey's goal so even if they don't become witches, any girl he contracts will provide some energy. The current method could be the most efficient way to gather energy and to stop entropy the net gain compared to how much effort was required is more important than the raw amount from each girl.

[Shadow5YA]

Originally Posted by Angelmonster

By 30% I took it that only 30% of the girls in the world are trickable. Only 30% fit into the criteria of losing their minds once they become Magic Girls and thus become witches.

The other 70% would be girls who don't have wishes (Madoka before Mami died) or girls who will not lose their mind and become a witch, or at least take too long to be viable candidates to get their energy in a decent amount of time.

The ones who don't have wishes can be persuaded to make one. Madoka in the first three timelines contracted with Kyubey a week before Homura appears in school. The appeal of being a magical girl is there. Homura's warning just made Madoka hesistate.

It also doesn't change that fact that magical girls are able to produce something from nothing (or what Kyubey believes to be nothing). Even the energy released by stars via nuclear fusion does not come from nowhere. For the Puella Magi, the release of energy is not based on any nuclear or chemical reaction. Their weapons that also appear and become matter from nowhere is another example of how Puella Magi defy logic.

[k//eternal]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Out of a sample size of 12 girls, in various repeated experiments, 8 girls die, and 4 become witches. So more specifically, 33.333333% of magical girls become witches, while 66.666667% of girls end up dying before that point. It may be just my opinion, but those are fairly horrible odds to bet the future of the universe on. That was the whole reason for the Rayearth method to showcase why the current Kyube plan is stupid on the face of it. With a little thinking, one can greatly increase the percentage of girls that survive to witch-hood.

This knowledge was acquired via time travel and so is unlikely to be available to them. In addition, it doesn't seem like the witch count is the significant point, as Madoka alone seems to get Kyubey to his quota.

Incidentally, the existence of said quota makes it seem that Kyubey is just performing a job (rather than a true sense of justice / universe preservation), otherwise he would be far more concerned with maximizing output. The number of worlds they can do this to has got to be limited, but Kyubey is okay with a job that's effectively "just good enough".

It wouldn't surprise me if their top brass had difficulties perceiving the issues with their plan. They're an advanced race, but clearly imperfect, which is fair. I think even when we've got FTL travel and all sorts of other wonder gadgets, we'll still have loads of problems, too.

[Kaijo]

Originally Posted by cyberdragon

I don't think that this makes a very good sample, considering that this isn't 12 different girls. It is the same characters, and events only diverge in a relatively short time period compared to what happens to them in the end so we don't know how they would compare to other possible magical girls.

It's the only sample set we have. The basis of science is to run through the experiment over and over and chart the results. In that respect, a repeating timeloop is almost a perfect scientific experiment.

Now, to be fair, we don't know what the rest of the world is like. Kyube's speech made it seem like ours is the only planet that they can grab this emotional energy from. They could very well be getting more energy elsewhere (in our world or other worlds) with a higher rate.

But until such time as we get that sort of information, the current data will point to a low success rate.

Originally Posted by Shadow5YA

It also doesn't change that fact that magical girls are able to produce something from nothing (or what Kyubey believes to be nothing). Even the energy released by stars via nuclear fusion does not come from nowhere. For the Puella Magi, the release of energy is not based on any nuclear or chemical reaction. Their weapons that also appear and become matter from nowhere is another example of how Puella Magi defy logic.

Of course it doesn't come from nowhere; I've said repeatedly that our sun is burning it's fuel to produce energy, somewhat like gasoline. When it's gone, it's gone.

Originally Posted by k//eternal

This knowledge was acquired via time travel and so is unlikely to be available to them. In addition, it doesn't seem like the witch count is the significant point, as Madoka alone seems to get Kyubey to his quota.

In our current timeline, we have 2 dead girls and 1 witch; the knowledge of a 30% survival to witch-hood is already available to them. Additional time loops only reinforce this statistical notion.

Ignoring all other possible magical girls right now, I could make all 5 of the girls we know turn into witches with better planning. This would result in an exponentially higher return (5 girls vs. 1 or 2). If I were a Kyube, I could rise to the top easily by making the current planner look incompetent, heh. It's how things work in business; just show that you can earn the company more money than the other guy. And the Kyubes do seem to be all about business.

[Shadow5YA]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Of course it doesn't come from nowhere; I've said repeatedly that our sun is burning it's fuel to produce energy, somewhat like gasoline. When it's gone, it's gone.

Of course. My point is that however ineffective Kyubey's method may be, it doesn't change the fact that the Puella Magi system gives him something for next to nothing.

[Akashin]

Originally Posted by Shadow5YA

Of course. My point is that however ineffective Kyubey's method may be, it doesn't change the fact that the Puella Magi system gives him something for next to nothing.

Unless I'm mistaken, that isn't what Kaijo is arguing. The point is that if you have a means of getting something for next to nothing, it still stands to reason that you'd want the most efficient means of doing so. Just because he can get a large amount of energy from 30% (arguably) of the girls he contracts, that doesn't change the fact that it would be infinitely smarter to aim for more if it were possible. And with a bit more effort than what he's putting in it is very possible, assuming the Rayearth Method is as successful in practice as it is in theory.

[k//eternal]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Now, to be fair, we don't know what the rest of the world is like. Kyube's speech made it seem like ours is the only planet that they can grab this emotional energy from. They could very well be getting more energy elsewhere (in our world or other worlds) with a higher rate.

I'd be very surprised if this was true, because when Madoka/Gretchen is about to destroy the world, Kyubey is just like "well, we met our quota, so not my problem anymore". If meeting the quota actually means they can already prevent the heat death of the universe, well, that was amazingly easy.

Also, it seems like the amount of energy from the other girls isn't significant compared to Madoka.

[Decagon]

Kaijo, you are using probability, not statistics, above. If you are evaluating the number of girls who become witches versus those who die, your sample size would be the number of loops that have ocurred and your data points would be the proportion that died instead of becoming witches or the proportion that became witches instead of dying in each of those samples. Then you would need to evaluate a confidence interval which, to be statistically significant, would require several hundred if not a few thousand loops for data. Four data points with probabilities like 0, 0.5, 0.25, 0, 0.33 (prob of witch/dying) does not a robust statistic make.

I don't understand the need use suns as metrics for the inevitable end of the universe. Why not just us the definition Kyubey presented that entropy is the loss of energy as something changes form? It's not incorrect and it's not a one trick pony like saying the sun burns out and it is gone. Nebulae pop out stars and planetary bodies all the time, stars die and the gas and other materials they release are picked up by planetary bodies which may collapse onto themselves and form new stars or even by clouds of gas which may form new nebulae. You've said before that you think Butch probably didn't think this out, and I'd agree with that, but why use science to present arguments if it was not used to construct the system that the story revolves around?

[Kaijo]

Originally Posted by k//eternal

I'd be very surprised if this was true, because when Madoka/Gretchen is about to destroy the world, Kyubey is just like "well, we met our quota, so not my problem anymore". If meeting the quota actually means they can already prevent the heat death of the universe, well, that was amazingly easy.

Also, it seems like the amount of energy from the other girls isn't significant compared to Madoka.

Oh, I agree. On the face of it, it does seem like Kyube's explanation works, so we are left with a couple of possible explanations. That he was outright lying, or that Gen doesn't quite understand the scale of the concepts he is addressing. Now, I'm open to Kyube lying, but my gut says no, just because we're in the 11th hour, and thus the antagonists plan would have been fully revealed by now, and all that is left is for the heroes to develop a countermeasure and execute it. Given the title of the next episode, this seems to fit (Madoka finding "The Way Forward").

If Kyube has a different, better reason and it is revealed in the next couple of episodes, then yes, all of what I'm proposing here becomes moot. All I can do for right now, though, is evaluate what we've been given.

As far as energy quota... this could be explained by knowing how much energy the universe is losing at any moment. For simplicity's sake, let's say 1000 units of energy is lost per day. Thus, the Kyube's would need to gain 1000 units of energy per day to keep entropy in check. Kyube #14673 of Japan is responsible for 20 units of energy that month, and he meets his quota by turning Madoka into a witch. This is just my speculation for how to make sense of it, though.

Originally Posted by Decagon

Kaijo, you are using probability, not statistics, above. If you are evaluating the number of girls who become witches versus those who die, your sample size would be the number of loops that have ocurred and your data points would be the proportion that died instead of becoming witches or the proportion that became witches instead of dying in each of those samples. Then you would need to evaluate a confidence interval which, to be statistically significant, would require several hundred if not a few thousand loops for data. Four data points with probabilities like 0, 0.5, 0.25, 0, 0.33 (prob of witch/dying) does not a robust statistic make.

Well, I was trying to keep things simple because we don't have tons of data. Ideally, we'd need to research a couple thousand magical girls at least, to begin to construct an ideal picture of the transformation rate. But 12 samples is about all we have, so it's what we got to work with.

I don't understand the need use suns as metrics for the inevitable end of the universe. Why not just us the definition Kyubey presented that entropy is the loss of energy as something changes form?

Because what is being lost is fuel. It's sorta like the oil we keep pulling out the ground, in that it will eventually be gone. Sure, new oil can be made... but we aren't reclaiming any oil from the gasoline that is burned. Even if we empty this planet, and pull oil from other planets and keep going, eventually after billions or trillions of years, we'll run the universe out of oil.

There is a finite amount; that goes for solar energy (of which practically every other form of energy is derived), and oil.

It's not incorrect and it's not a one trick pony like saying the sun burns out and it is gone. Nebulae pop out stars and planetary bodies all the time, stars die and the gas and other materials they release are picked up by planetary bodies which may collapse onto themselves and form new stars or even by clouds of gas which may form new nebulae. You've said before that you think Butch probably didn't think this out, and I'd agree with that, but why use science to present arguments if it was not used to construct the system that the story revolves around?

Because Gen is using science; he specifically quoted the second law of thermodynamics and used terms like Entropy. It would be like if a show referenced gravity; unless stated otherwise, we go on what we currently know about gravity.

Now, if he had proposed a different explanation for entropy, say have Kyubey explain that it's going much faster than humans currently think, or that there is some other reason which leads them to believe it will be accelerated, then Gen should explain that. Otherwise, we're left to understanding the scientific terms in the way that we currently know them.

Words have meanings, and unless the writer explains that they have a different meaning, we're left to go with the meanings we know. Otherwise, you get Bill Clinton's "Well, it all depends on what the word 'is' means..." If you want to redefine the terms "Entropy" and "Thermodynamics", well, be my guest.

[Sol Falling]

Ah. Okay, so I went over the scenes about wishes and Walpurgis Night in episode 10 again and noticed something interesting.

First, when Homura makes her wish, Kyuubey says "The contract is formed. Your wish has improved the entropy." What does this mean?

- Possible explanation: one of Kyuubey's sources of emotional energy is the contract/wishing process itself.

Second: At the end of the fourth timeline, despite not yet having collected Madoka's Grief Seed, Kyuubey mentions "I gathered a lot more energy than our collection quota." How?

- Possible explanation: if the above is true, Kyuubey may have managed to surpass his collection quota simply by contracting Madoka herself.

There is thus no necessary reason to assume that Kyuubey automatically collects energy from a Puella Magi -> Witch transformation. Kyuubey's main/actual source of energy may still be the Grief Seeds which are collected afterwards.

Pretty simple. If this is true, then Kyuubey's energy collection plan does not require that Puella Magis turn into witches.

[Decagon]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Because what is being lost is fuel. It's sorta like the oil we keep pulling out the ground, in that it will eventually be gone. Sure, new oil can be made... but we aren't reclaiming any oil from the gasoline that is burned. Even if we empty this planet, and pull oil from other planets and keep going, eventually after billions or trillions of years, we'll run the universe out of oil.

There is a finite amount; that goes for solar energy (of which practically every other form of energy is derived), and oil.

This cyclical bit is what you pass over when you say a sun dies and it's gone. The universe's systems still reuses these "spent" energy sources much more than the explanations you used star death for earlier.

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Because Gen is using science; he specifically quoted the second law of thermodynamics and used terms like Entropy. It would be like if a show referenced gravity; unless stated otherwise, we go on what we currently know about gravity.

Oh good, then the argument about entropy is moot and QB is just lying for cheap and easy spaceship gas because of what loop quantum cosmology implies about cosmic inflation and the inevitable reheating and Big Crunch that will occur in a cyclic model of the universe. Rather, they're pretty sloppy to not find a way to harvest dark energy as it's accelerating entropy by expanding the universe.

Real science will kind of take the fun out of it.

[Jimmy C]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

I'd say so. Given that only a small fraction of the universe burns with light currently.

Good, then you'd agree that it's easier to save only a few stars and planets after the rest of the universe has "gone away."

Originally Posted by Kaijo

For simplicity's sake, let's say 1000 units of energy is lost per day. Thus, the Kyube's would need to gain 1000 units of energy per day to keep entropy in check. Kyube #14673 of Japan is responsible for 20 units of energy that month, and he meets his quota by turning Madoka into a witch.

That's not correct. If it was, then Kyubei would have an interest in preserving the location he's responsible for, if only for some place to gather next month's quota from. But as we saw, he's willing to abandon the planet completely once his quota is filled and the planet is doomed. His quota is a one-time thing.

Originally Posted by Sol Falling

At the end of the fourth timeline, despite not yet having collected Madoka's Grief Seed, Kyuubey mentions "I gathered a lot more energy than our collection quota." How?

Why did you assume that Kyubei has to collect the Grief Seed to collect the energy? That scene showed us that that isn't the case at all.

Kyuubey's main/actual source of energy may still be the Grief Seeds which are collected afterwards.

If that's true, he'd still need someone to defeat Gretchen to collect her Grief Seed. We saw he isn't concerned about that at all. So that isn't the case.
You know, Kaijo already pointed this out quite a while ago why are you still going on about it?

[Reckoner]

Guys, this whole argument can be boiled down to some very small points...

Entropy is defined as the heat death of the universe. Energy is not being lost per say, it's just becoming more dispersed as the universe expands?

What does Kyube say he's doing by battling entropy? He's somehow adding energy to this universe through the emotions of magical girls, something that wasn't originally energy, is now energy. The mechanism behind it? This is a fucking mahou shoujo, it's magic and fiction for goodness sakes.

[Sol Falling]

Originally Posted by Jimmy C

Why did you assume that Kyubei has to collect the Grief Seed to collect the energy? That scene showed us that that isn't the case at all.

I'm arguing that that scene doesn't show that. That's what my post was about.

If that's true, he'd still need someone to defeat Gretchen to collect her Grief Seed. We saw he isn't concerned about that at all. So that isn't the case.
You know, Kaijo already pointed this out quite a while ago why are you still going on about it?

No, Kyuubey wouldn't. If the act of contracting Madoka already managed to give Kyuubey "a lot more than [his] collection quota", then there's no reason he would need to take the further step of collecting Madoka's Grief Seed. So this explanation remains a completely viable possibility, and there's no reason to make the assumption yet that Kyuubey gets the energy directly somehow from the transformation process (he's not even around when it happens! How does any of that make sense really?).

[Akashin]

Originally Posted by Sol Falling

No, Kyuubey wouldn't. If the act of contracting Madoka already managed to give Kyuubey "a lot more than [his] collection quota", then there's no reason he would need to take the further step of collecting Madoka's Grief Seed. So this explanation remains a completely viable possibility, and there's no reason to make the assumption yet that Kyuubey gets the energy directly somehow from the transformation process (he's not even around when it happens! How does any of that make sense really?).

While it is technically plausible that the act of contracting is what releases the energy Kyubey is after, I don't necessarily think so. While it was never been explicitly said as such, the way Kyubey was speaking at the end of TL4 left me with the impression that he'd only just gotten his quota. And if nothing else, I took the end of episode 8 as visual confirmation of the transformation from Puella Magi to Witch being what releases that energy. Again it wasn't explicitly said, but it certainly seemed like it.

[Deconstructor]

Originally Posted by Akashin

While it is technically plausible that the act of contracting is what releases the energy Kyubey is after, I don't necessarily think so.

"Your wish has improved the entropy." - Episode 10, Kyubey to Homura.
Of course, the incubator may be lying. Kyubey was born with a trollface.
The viewers should assume he is telling the truth, however, so the story can progress.

[Sol Falling]

Originally Posted by Akashin

While it is technically plausible that the act of contracting is what releases the energy Kyubey is after, I don't necessarily think so. While it was never been explicitly said as such, the way Kyubey was speaking at the end of TL4 left me with the impression that he'd only just gotten his quota.

This had me stumped and pretty much going along with the generally accepted explanation for awhile, like most of you guys. But really, there isn't actually that much time difference between Madoka accepting the contract and Madoka turning into a witch in timeline 4. In fact, by the time of Kyuubey and Homura's conversation, the former had very much 'only just happened' as well, so from my perspective at least this aspect of the theories does not look to be any less convincing.

(In fact, if you look at the dialogue actually, Kyuubey even leads in with "She really was amazing...when she transformed. I didn't expect her to take out Walpurgis in one hit blahblahblah etc." So he's initially talking about Madoka's Magical Girl transformation. As part of the same conversation, then, this could just as easily also be presumed as the source Kyuubey got his energy from when he goes on to say "I've surpassed my quota".)

And if nothing else, I took the end of episode 8 as visual confirmation of the transformation from Puella Magi to Witch being what releases that energy. Again it wasn't explicitly said, but it certainly seemed like it.

This might be counterintuitive, but did you know that the act of 'decreasing entropy' (i.e. creating more usable energy which can later be used) is actually the opposite of a big impressive explosion, but rather the packing of energy into more 'fuel'-like compact forms such as a tree growing or a dam filling up? After you burn a piece of wood or let all of the water out of a dam, the potential energy that was stored up in them is basically converted to 'free' kinetic energy which dissipates and then can't be used anymore. So in fact, a big explosion like what followed Sayaka's witch transformation was not actually adding useful energy (i.e. decreasing entropy) into the system but rather decreasing it, if we took it somewhat literally. Useful energy is the energy that is stored in more complex, compact and ordered forms/structures (such as, for example at least cosmetically convincingly, Grief Seeds) as opposed to 'free' energy which pretty much just wastes itself bouncing around as more simple molecules. So in this case, the concentration of negative emotions into dark power in Grief Seeds is actually a much more convincing illustration to me of the 'creation' of energy, than the haphazard 'release' of energy which randomly flies around during a witch transformation. The witch transformation actually demonstrates nothing at all which really indicates it is 'improving entropy'. It is not really explosions, but rather the creation of fuel-like things which would seem to indicate such a process happening.

[Shadow5YA]

Entropy is considered a negative quantity by Kyubey. If Kyubey had said entropy was worsening, then that would mean entropy is increasing. Then, if entropy is improving, then that means it is decreasing. All it meant was that Homura's wish helped decrease the entropy of th universe.

As for Kyubey's explanation of his role:

Spoiler for ep9 quote, gg subs:

When your souls burn out in the Soul Gems and turn into Grief Seeds, they emit immense amounts of energy. It is our, the Incubators' job to collect that energy.

From that quote, the energy emission is from the transformation to a Witch, not the Grief Seed itself.

[Sol Falling]

:P With regards to Kyuubey's quote in itself, that doesn't say anything as to how Kyuubey collects that energy. Could Kyuubey in fact be collecting the 'emitted' energy by ingesting the Grief Seeds magical girls bring to him? That is in fact still a perfectly believable reading.

"It's our job to collect that energy."
"To consume Grief Seeds is also one of our functions."

See the connection?

(Also, if Homura's wish didn't actually give Kyuubey any energy, then how would it have helped decrease the entropy of the universe? Homura hadn't turned into a witch yet.)