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[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Mentar

Don't underestimate the natural disposition of people - especially elder ones - to remain where they are. We had the same issue during Germany's reunification. The answer: Infrastructure programs and transfer payments. No way around that.

but were the people in East Germany as desperate as the people in North Korea? East Germany was in bad shape but i didn't hear reports of mass starvation.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

but were the people in East Germany as desperate as the people in North Korea? East Germany was in bad shape but i didn't hear reports of mass starvation.

I already said the answer: Send the surplus rice up north. It's already been paid for (and will be paid for by the regular budget), and using it to feed the people would be of better use than livestock fodder. In fact, if DPRK weren't making missiles and used the money to buy rice at the world market price, they would have enough money to buy all the rice necessary to feed the people and stockpile for war, AND still have some left over for the meat soup (regular DPRK propaganda: We will have people eat white rice and meat soup for every meal).

[Tom Bombadil]

Originally Posted by Mentar

Really? What natural resources would that be? Other than a bit of brown coal? Pretty much nothing ^_^;

But nah, "almost bankrupted" us is too much. It only cost lots of years of transfer payments and a rise of ~20% national debt relative to GNP. Painful for a while, but manageable.

Don't underestimate the natural disposition of people - especially elder ones - to remain where they are. We had the same issue during Germany's reunification. The answer: Infrastructure programs and transfer payments. No way around that.

The problem with comparing the German situation to that of the Korea is that the East Germany is much much richer than North Korea.

From Wikipedia:

The estimated 1984 per capita income was $9,800 ($21,000 in 2008 dollars).

There is no way that China, after all these years development, has reached that figure. North Koreans in the country side probably only earn a fraction of what average Chinese makes. As far as I know, East Germany was one of the better offs in the communist camp, and it is an industrialized nation. North Korea has not much industry to talk about. Wikipedia also put the GDP/capita of west Germany in 1990 at around twice of that of EG, which is not as scary as a most likely a double digits fold (if not more) gap between SK and NK.

I really don't see how there won't be a huge refugee run unless you do the tried and true method of shooting whoever crosses the line. This is what the Chinese has done to those trying to cross in to Hong Kong during the height of Mao's madness, or what the India done to Bangladesh. Fortunately, for SK, the dirty job of shooting is done on the NK side. But if the lid on NK is off, will the South Koreans be ready to do it?

[sneaker]

I don't think you can compare Eastern Germany to North Korea. They were not a Third World country, definitely no starvation. They were developing and building shit like microprocessors and whatnot back in the 70s. And they only made up 20% of a united Germany, North Korea would be some 30%.
They were poor compared to West Germany, not really on the international level.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil

I really don't see how there won't be a huge refugee run unless you do the tried and true method of shooting whoever crosses the line. This is what the Chinese has done to those trying to cross in to Hong Kong during the height of Mao's madness, or what the India done to Bangladesh. Fortunately, for SK, the dirty job of shooting is done on the NK side. But if the lid on NK is off, will the South Koreans be ready to do it?

Maybe you should go read some of my posts before posing such problems and questions.

[Tom Bombadil]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Maybe you should go read some of my posts before posing such problems and questions.

I know you said fence, and it has been pointed out fence generally doesn't work. Of course there is a fence between mainland China and Hong Kong. India did build a fence along its boarder with Bangladesh. They didn't stop people from trying until the economic pressure is off.

As for providing rice, the north will have enough rice once they abolish the totally inefficient collective farming system. It is just a matter of providing enough aid to carry them for a season or two. Anybody can do that.

[Ithekro]

Have you seen the fence between North and South Korea? This isn't a fence about people crossing borders...it is about a war zone last I heard. The whole of the DMZ.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Have you seen the fence between North and South Korea? This isn't a fence about people crossing borders...it is about a war zone last I heard. The whole of the DMZ.

we are talking whats after NK falls.

[Tom Bombadil]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Have you seen the fence between North and South Korea? This isn't a fence about people crossing borders...it is about a war zone last I heard. The whole of the DMZ.

Yes, remove the Kim Dynasty and keep the war zone. That solve the problem.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil

I know you said fence, and it has been pointed out fence generally doesn't work. Of course there is a fence between mainland China and Hong Kong. India did build a fence along its boarder with Bangladesh. They didn't stop people from trying until the economic pressure is off.

You really don't know what the situation is like.

PRC Border: Most likely shootings if necessary.

ROK border: Mines, electric fences, mountains, etc. Plus, most of the infrastructure heading south is non-existent, so there can't be waves of people without people dying in between. It's a logical choice for people to stay put and get aid.

Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil

As for providing rice, the north will have enough rice once they abolish the totally inefficient collective farming system. It is just a matter of providing enough aid to carry them for a season or two. Anybody can do that.

No, not even then would there be enough production without seriously degrading the soil by fertilizer. The agricultural situation up north was never meant for rice production.

[Ithekro]

If the South Koreans want to keep the North Koreans out during the transition period, they will retain the DMZ as a massive border fence. It would also keep some of the ex-North Korean Army employed as guards. It would also take a long time to demilitarize that zone, with all the minefields.

[JMvS]

Perhaps this will put back on track the russian proposal for a rail and pipeline link trough the Korean peninsula: allowing the Far East's natural resources to flow toward ROK, and the DPRK to resolve it's energy problem.

[GundamFan0083]

Originally Posted by Sugetsu

Not madness, that is the perfect example of how the media can indoctrinate people to believe almost anything.

Agreed Sugetsu, it's amazing how much propaganda we are exposed to from cradle to grave.

It seems that any form of belief system or mass media can be used for control.

Not sure if this means anything substantial, but I thought I'd add it anyway.

N. Korea test-fires short-range missiles: report

http://news.yahoo.com/n-korea-test-f...130006284.html

[MeoTwister5]

Originally Posted by GundamFan0083

Agreed Sugetsu, it's amazing how much propaganda we are exposed to from cradle to grave.

It seems that any form of belief system or mass media can be used for control.

Not sure if this means anything substantial, but I thought I'd add it anyway.

N. Korea test-fires short-range missiles: report

http://news.yahoo.com/n-korea-test-f...130006284.html

I'm going to say that this is NKor's way of telling the world that just because KJI's dead doesn't mean they aren't any less of a threat to the world.

Or any less insane.

[Ithekro]

Maybe it was a 21 missile salute?

[MeoTwister5]

When I die that's what I want people to do in my funeral.

[killer3000ad]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

When I die that's what I want people to do in my funeral.

What? The wailing and crying and head banging on the pavement or people firing off missiles and scaring your neighbours?

[MeoTwister5]

The firing of rockets and scaring my neighbors. Of course, I meant it in a small scale neighborhood sort of way.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

You mean AFTER Kim Il Sung's death.

now that I think about it, that's true.

One thing that is undeniable: Almost everyone of the average people loved or at least respected Kim Il Sung, even with all his faults. Unbelievable to most, but the truth nevertheless.

Really? Even people from "bad" families?

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by killer3000ad

Madness.

Ridiculous in itself, but frankly i guess the NK will also goes "wtf" if they see those fan(girl)s crying at the sight of their idols