[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Knicknevin

I think that the gold sitting on the table represented the majority of Kinzo's original gold. My personal theory is that Kinzo fooled the bank president he gave the one gold ingot to, and only had a couple ingots of genuine gold: The one that the pres took, and Krauss eventually found and hid, and the three that someone else found and put on that table.

Since Rosa solved the epitaph in Episode 3, it's possible she also figured it out in Ep 2 as well. And if she realized that most of Kinzo's gold was fake, she knew right away that the plan of splitting it among the siblings wouldn't work. She wanted those three ingots for herself, so she (or whoever the real killer is if it wasn't her) drugged the others and disemboweled them.

You don't believe the 10tons gold were real? Hmm..........if so, setting up the epitaph to let the people to find the gold was rather meaningless.

And if Rosa did solve the epitaph before, do you mean she had actually been to the place where the gold was hidden so she knew that all the gold was unreal, then where did the three ingots come from? It meant in your theory someone else must also have solved the epitaph.

One problem was: in EP3, Rosa said it was not worthwhile to kill people even if she found 10ton gold, would she murder the six now only for just 30kg of gold? The cost was the same but the benefit was so much fewer.

One major problem was: she only seen the 3 ingots of gold in chapel, how was she able to dose the adults? She could not just put some drugs in front of anyone, and I could not think out of a way that she could secretly dose everyone inside the chapel. Otherwise, I do not need to insist that she dosed them in the mansion.

[Vega Lyra]

Originally Posted by Metaler

I don't think so... Well, I'm not exactly sure either. They mostly talked about that letter and PIN.
You're thinking that Nanjo's granddaughter died and not him, right? She did have some kind of disease, after all.

No, no nothing like that. It's just that...my hunch is that Jessica is this granddaughter of Nanjo. It's just I don't know if Nanjo's granddaughter is the daughter of his son back on Nijima. (his son did not look like he was married or had kids).

And if this is true, then Nanjo would be Natsuhi's father (but the shinto family thing could be out of place here.) It could explain Eva's resentment towards Natsuhi in EP1, Eva would feel outraged that her older brother was allowed a wife of 'lowly' origin, given Kinzo's ideas.

I really want to make sure that nothing is contradicting this theory, though.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ijriims

*snip*

I'm not trying to insult you here, man. I'm just saying that it's more likely Rosa didn't kill the six in the chapel.

Of course, I haven't exactly gone out of my way to solve Ep2, but that's because it's my least favorite episode.

Originally Posted by Knicknevin

I think that the gold sitting on the table represented the majority of Kinzo's original gold. My personal theory is that Kinzo fooled the bank president he gave the one gold ingot to, and only had a couple ingots of genuine gold: The one that the pres took, and Krauss eventually found and hid, and the three that someone else found and put on that table.

Since Rosa solved the epitaph in Episode 3, it's possible she also figured it out in Ep 2 as well. And if she realized that most of Kinzo's gold was fake, she knew right away that the plan of splitting it among the siblings wouldn't work. She wanted those three ingots for herself, so she (or whoever the real killer is if it wasn't her) drugged the others and disemboweled them.

Spoiler for ep5:

The ten tons of gold was confirmed in red.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by ijriims

If you say my stance is highly improbable, then

the remaining possibility was: Rosa intentionally killed the sixes?

or someone else unintentionally/intentionally killed the sixes? (real Beatrice, staker X, murderer X, or anyone?)

Do you think they were drugged before? Why Rosa was not drugged if so? Did Rosa know the identity of the murderer then, we knew that at least someone had three pieces of gold beforehand?

Or do you really think Rosa would plan to kill the six? The scene which shown her encounter with Beatrice was non-existent or an act put by her and imposter? If she had planned all these, why it did not happen in other episodes?

There are a lot to yet to be explained even if my stance was wrong,.

If you claim that Rosa was responsible for this crime scene, how do you explain her becoming violently ill when she saw the bodies in the morning? Are you saying she's an amazing actress who can vomit multiple times on command? If not, how could she have sliced up and stuffed the bodies without throwing up everywhere? And that's if it were even remotely likely that she would deliberately mutilate the victims after accidentally killing them. Or that she would get Maria's help to do so, since it was impossible for her to have laid hands on the key before morning.

For that matter, what child sedatives did Rosa use to drug the victims? We learned in Episode 3 that her bottle of them was completely empty. Nobody was poisoned in that game either, so there's no reason to suspect that she used them up herself and lied about it (although you can suspect that someone else took them).

---

You ask why Rosa wasn't drugged if she wasn't the culprit, but there is no reliable evidence that Rosa was ever in the chapel. The scene in question involved Beato demonstrating magic and getting a bunch of people to admit she was a witch. It's an obvious lie, and Rosa herself never said anything about being there. Meanwhile, it was suggested that the adults left the dining room during the conference to go to the chapel, but the only physical evidence of that is the scrap of paper marked "Chapel" that Shannon supposedly found. Seriously? Beato, who writes flowery messages in formal Japanese and puts them in fancy envelopes, invited everyone out to the chapel with a little scrap of paper with one word on it? Or if it was a message to the servants from the adults, they couldn't be bothered to write a meaningful sentence like "Went to the chapel, bring tea later"?

There seems to have been some sort of conspiracy in play to make it look like Beatrice existed. The scenes where Rosa and Kyrie met Beato can possibly be explained by someone being in disguise that they didn't recognize. However, since Genji and Shannon claimed to have met Beato directly in the honored guest room, and they're familiar with all of the people who could potentially be disguised as her, it seems like they must be directly involved.

The chapel key was handed over to Maria when Rosa met with Beato, so it also seems like the chapel being a locked room was involved in that conspiracy. That only makes sense if there are supposed to be people inside, either actually dead or faking it. Regardless of which one is the case, it means there's a motive for Shannon to lie about finding the scrap of paper leading to the chapel, and also for Genji to lie to Rosa about the chapel actually being locked.

There is no actual evidence that the door was locked before Battler arrived on the scene. In fact, under a strict reading of the red that the key passed through no one's hands, it's totally impossible for the door to have been locked for the whole period after Maria received the key. That means anyone at all could have waltzed in and committed the murders at any time during the night. The prime suspects are the people we know were involved in the Beatrice conspiracy, namely Genji and Shannon.

[rogerpepitone]

"Starting when Maria's key was received, and until the instant Rosa unsealed it the next day, it passed through no one's hands!!" (「真里亞の鍵は、真里亞受領後から翌日の楼座開封の瞬間まで、誰の手にも渡っていない！！」)

But "the next day" is vague. 12:01 AM on Oct. 5 is still "the next day". Alternately, Maria could have received the key, not at noon, but at 11:59 PM on Oct. 4.

[ijriims]

Then the thing is, why would Rosa cover up Genji and Shannon if she had nothing related to the death of the sixes? Consider how hysterical she was in the EP2, it was certain that if she herself was not related to the murder at all, then she must suspect Genji and Shannon. But in reality, she covered up for them, even to the extent that she had checked from Kinzo that they had alibi.

-----------------------------------------

Rosa unintentionally killed the sixes was only the first part of my hypothesis, the next part was: Rosa discovered that suit-Beatrice was Shannon in disguise, then Genji came out to say it was the will of Kinzo (Rosa knew Kinzo was dead at that time, the identity of real Beatrice, and all the decoration was for Maria who would be latter invited to come here (the key was supposedly to be used by Beatrice after she killed Maria inside the chapel)). Latter, she found out that the sixes were not having their breath so Genji called Nanjo to come but it was too late. She realized she killed the sixes and wanted to hide it by messing up with their bodies. Genji propsed he himself would take care of all the bodies and urged Shannon, Nanjo and Rosa to leave. They agreed to put up a play next morning to pretend that the chapel was locked from the first place.

[Kaiba]

Then the thing is, why would Rosa cover up Genji and Shannon if she had nothing related to the death of the sixes? Consider how hysterical she was in the EP2, it was certain that if she herself was not related to the murder at all, then she must suspect Genji and Shannon. But in reality, she covered up for them, even to the extent that she had checked from Kinzo that they had alibi.

Technically, she did suspect Genji and Shannon. Notice throughout the entire arc she has this massive, massive paranoia towards the servants in particular. I argue that Rosa knew that they were in it, but was too afraid to disclose who was in it as she had no idea who else could be in on the murders and was afraid of being killed if she openly stated that they were the culprits.

I do not like suspecting Rosa in Episode 2 - I find it way, way too easy on par with anyone who actually thinks Eva ran amok in Episode 3

[Arkwright]

All right, I now have the basis of a theory for what happened during the first four games.

It still needs some details to work out, but I started out with the belief that the foundation of a theory should be a narrative, story-based reasoning for why things happen, and not simply how to explain individual events.

So this is the core idea I have at the moment. I'll probably come up with specific details on the individual murders at some point but I think most of them can be understood simply with the basic idea.

Spoiler for Theory:

-Battler is Kyrie's son.
-Jessica is actually Battler Ushiromiya, Asumu's daughter.
-Battler's sin refers to something he did at Rokkenjima that caused this information to be known to the outside. Not being told the consequences of what he did, he didn't regard the event as significant.
-Asumu may have died as a result of the truth being known.
-Kumasawa is the "Beatrice" who planned the events.
-Kumasawa's past is a blank slate, and if she had a close connection to Kinzo, of the suspects she is the most likely to have a large spare sum of money and yet no particular need to hold on to it herself.
-The original plan is for the Ushiromiya family to "disperse." With the adults all in rising financial trouble, the family in general will disappear from the island under the guise of a witch's ceremony, and their remaining family members will be reimbursed.
-Ange, the only person not present at the family conference six years ago, will be "spared" and then reunited with her parents in secret after the weekend is over.
-However, "because of Battler's sin," everything does not go as intended.
-In addition to Krauss, Natsuhi, Rudolf, and Kyrie, at the least, Eva, Rosa, and Kumasawa know of Jessica's true parents. There are two factions working against each other: Eva, Rosa, and Hideyoshi, who use blackmail to threaten Krauss and Rudolf, who have the assistance of most of the servants as Krauss is the acting head.
-Since she knows George is actually the first in line of the grandchildren for succession, Eva is in a good position until the letter regarding the epitaph is revealed. Since she believes Krauss has the gold, she fears she will lose her advantage, and this causes tensions to escalate.
-Kumasawa, upset with how things are unfolding, enlists Kanon with protecting Jessica and finding out what the other factions are planning.
-The "Dispersal" plan involves a catastrophic event on the last day of the conference which will cover up the actual details of what happened. It may be an explosion, a fire, poison gas. Kumasawa warns most of the family's adults ahead of time, but due to things spinning out of control, the ones who know about the plan rarely survive until the end of the game, leaving the clueless grandchildren still left in the mansion.

[Metaler]

Originally Posted by Arkwright

All right, I now have the basis of a theory for what happened during the first four games.

It still needs some details to work out, but I started out with the belief that the foundation of a theory should be a narrative, story-based reasoning for why things happen, and not simply how to explain individual events.

So this is the core idea I have at the moment. I'll probably come up with specific details on the individual murders at some point but I think most of them can be understood simply with the basic idea.

Spoiler for Theory:

-Battler is Kyrie's son.
-Jessica is actually Battler Ushiromiya, Asumu's daughter.
-Battler's sin refers to something he did at Rokkenjima that caused this information to be known to the outside. Not being told the consequences of what he did, he didn't regard the event as significant.
-Asumu may have died as a result of the truth being known.
-Kumasawa is the "Beatrice" who planned the events.
-Kumasawa's past is a blank slate, and if she had a close connection to Kinzo, of the suspects she is the most likely to have a large spare sum of money and yet no particular need to hold on to it herself.
-The original plan is for the Ushiromiya family to "disperse." With the adults all in rising financial trouble, the family in general will disappear from the island under the guise of a witch's ceremony, and their remaining family members will be reimbursed.
-Ange, the only person not present at the family conference six years ago, will be "spared" and then reunited with her parents in secret after the weekend is over.
-However, "because of Battler's sin," everything does not go as intended.
-In addition to Krauss, Natsuhi, Rudolf, and Kyrie, at the least, Eva, Rosa, and Kumasawa know of Jessica's true parents. There are two factions working against each other: Eva, Rosa, and Hideyoshi, who use blackmail to threaten Krauss and Rudolf, who have the assistance of most of the servants as Krauss is the acting head.
-Since she knows George is actually the first in line of the grandchildren for succession, Eva is in a good position until the letter regarding the epitaph is revealed. Since she believes Krauss has the gold, she fears she will lose her advantage, and this causes tensions to escalate.
-Kumasawa, upset with how things are unfolding, enlists Kanon with protecting Jessica and finding out what the other factions are planning.
-The "Dispersal" plan involves a catastrophic event on the last day of the conference which will cover up the actual details of what happened. It may be an explosion, a fire, poison gas. Kumasawa warns most of the family's adults ahead of time, but due to things spinning out of control, the ones who know about the plan rarely survive until the end of the game, leaving the clueless grandchildren still left in the mansion.

This theory of yours actually makes a lot of sense, although I would include something like a "religious cult", but I don't think it would be entirely necessary. xD~
Anyway, your theory actually made me think about something: maybe Jessica was supposed to be raised as a boy, considering her personality (something about the way she talks, which makes her sound "manly").

[ijriims]

Spoiler for To save space:

Originally Posted by Arkwright

All right, I now have the basis of a theory for what happened during the first four games.

It still needs some details to work out, but I started out with the belief that the foundation of a theory should be a narrative, story-based reasoning for why things happen, and not simply how to explain individual events.

So this is the core idea I have at the moment. I'll probably come up with specific details on the individual murders at some point but I think most of them can be understood simply with the basic idea.

Spoiler for Theory:

-Battler is Kyrie's son.
-Jessica is actually Battler Ushiromiya, Asumu's daughter.
-Battler's sin refers to something he did at Rokkenjima that caused this information to be known to the outside. Not being told the consequences of what he did, he didn't regard the event as significant.
-Asumu may have died as a result of the truth being known.
-Kumasawa is the "Beatrice" who planned the events.
-Kumasawa's past is a blank slate, and if she had a close connection to Kinzo, of the suspects she is the most likely to have a large spare sum of money and yet no particular need to hold on to it herself.
-The original plan is for the Ushiromiya family to "disperse." With the adults all in rising financial trouble, the family in general will disappear from the island under the guise of a witch's ceremony, and their remaining family members will be reimbursed.
-Ange, the only person not present at the family conference six years ago, will be "spared" and then reunited with her parents in secret after the weekend is over.
-However, "because of Battler's sin," everything does not go as intended.
-In addition to Krauss, Natsuhi, Rudolf, and Kyrie, at the least, Eva, Rosa, and Kumasawa know of Jessica's true parents. There are two factions working against each other: Eva, Rosa, and Hideyoshi, who use blackmail to threaten Krauss and Rudolf, who have the assistance of most of the servants as Krauss is the acting head.
-Since she knows George is actually the first in line of the grandchildren for succession, Eva is in a good position until the letter regarding the epitaph is revealed. Since she believes Krauss has the gold, she fears she will lose her advantage, and this causes tensions to escalate.
-Kumasawa, upset with how things are unfolding, enlists Kanon with protecting Jessica and finding out what the other factions are planning.
-The "Dispersal" plan involves a catastrophic event on the last day of the conference which will cover up the actual details of what happened. It may be an explosion, a fire, poison gas. Kumasawa warns most of the family's adults ahead of time, but due to things spinning out of control, the ones who know about the plan rarely survive until the end of the game, leaving the clueless grandchildren still left in the mansion.

Something I don't understand:

1. Why Ange was spared? All the inheritance would go to her if all people on Rokkenjima died. Why wrote the letters-in-the-bottle to say none of them survived if Kumasawa planned not to kill all the people on the island. The motive of Kumasawa was not clear from your description.

2. What did Rudolf gain in return of giving Asumu's daughter to Krauss? And then they took Kyrie's son and raise him like their own? (Kyrie seemed to never know that Battler was her son, and Rudolf wanted to tell this to Kyrie and Battler in EP1)

3. If Battler knew Jessica was Asumu's daughter, why he was so surprised to know he was not Asumu's son?

4. Who killed Nanjo, Kumasawa and Genji in EP1(Kanon? if so, who attacked Kanon and why he would want to kill the threes and who told Maria to sing the song then?)? Who killed Kumasawa in EP2? Who wrote the pin on the door and why in EP3? Who killed Kumasawa and Godha in EP4?

5. Does it mean Virgilia and Beatrice were the same person? But there were two signiture on Maria's grimoire.


I suppose according to your theory, Eva and Hideyoshi murdered the six in EP1, then Kumasawa ordered Kanon to kill the two for the second twilight, but the following was not clear.

In EP2, Kumasawa ordered Shannon to impose as suit-Beatrice, Rosa was spared. Then somehow someone managed to kill Jessica and hide Kanon's body. The following was unclear.

In Ep3, Eva and Hideyoshi discovered Kumasawa's plan and worked with Rosa to kill all the servants. Then Eva and Rosa had a quarrel over the gold and she unintentionally murdered Rosa and killed Maria out of fear. The rest could be explained by Eva's doing but who killed George was not clear. So was the pin on the door.

In EP4, Kumasawa managed to persuade Krauss and Kyrie's help and killed Rosa, Hideyoshi, Eva and Rudolf? The rest was unclear. But I suppose it was Jessica who imposed Beatrice in the end for your theory.

[imaginari]

Originally Posted by Arkwright

Spoiler for Theory:

-Battler is Kyrie's son.
-Jessica is actually Battler Ushiromiya, Asumu's daughter.
-Battler's sin refers to something he did at Rokkenjima that caused this information to be known to the outside. Not being told the consequences of what he did, he didn't regard the event as significant.
-Asumu may have died as a result of the truth being known.
-Kumasawa is the "Beatrice" who planned the events.
-Kumasawa's past is a blank slate, and if she had a close connection to Kinzo, of the suspects she is the most likely to have a large spare sum of money and yet no particular need to hold on to it herself.
-The original plan is for the Ushiromiya family to "disperse." With the adults all in rising financial trouble, the family in general will disappear from the island under the guise of a witch's ceremony, and their remaining family members will be reimbursed.
-Ange, the only person not present at the family conference six years ago, will be "spared" and then reunited with her parents in secret after the weekend is over.
-However, "because of Battler's sin," everything does not go as intended.
-In addition to Krauss, Natsuhi, Rudolf, and Kyrie, at the least, Eva, Rosa, and Kumasawa know of Jessica's true parents. There are two factions working against each other: Eva, Rosa, and Hideyoshi, who use blackmail to threaten Krauss and Rudolf, who have the assistance of most of the servants as Krauss is the acting head.
-Since she knows George is actually the first in line of the grandchildren for succession, Eva is in a good position until the letter regarding the epitaph is revealed. Since she believes Krauss has the gold, she fears she will lose her advantage, and this causes tensions to escalate.
-Kumasawa, upset with how things are unfolding, enlists Kanon with protecting Jessica and finding out what the other factions are planning.
-The "Dispersal" plan involves a catastrophic event on the last day of the conference which will cover up the actual details of what happened. It may be an explosion, a fire, poison gas. Kumasawa warns most of the family's adults ahead of time, but due to things spinning out of control, the ones who know about the plan rarely survive until the end of the game, leaving the clueless grandchildren still left in the mansion.

What about Kumasawa not being a murderer in Ep 1? And was Battler quite far away enough for her to look a quarter of her age during the balcony speech? And if these "factions" are killing each other, well, I have always had trouble with the idea of multiple people planning mass murder simultanteously and independent from each other. (Although, to be fair, the killings are unlikely enough that something implausible has to be involved.)

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

You ask why Rosa wasn't drugged if she wasn't the culprit, but there is no reliable evidence that Rosa was ever in the chapel.

Unless Rosa was so afraid to see Beatrice as she remembered she led to "her" death 19 years ago, I don't see much reason to believe Rosa would not go to the chapel as well. Would she miss such an important event that someone as mysterious as Suit-Beatrice was going to take away all Ushiromiya's fortune?

Or do you think that someone hit Rosa's head so she did not go to the chapel? Or you think the adults were already dosed by Suit-Beatrice and latter moved to the chapel to do the slaughtering?

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Unless Rosa was so afraid to see Beatrice as she remembered she led to "her" death 19 years ago, I don't see much reason to believe Rosa would not go to the chapel as well. Would she miss such an important event that someone as mysterious as Suit-Beatrice was going to take away all Ushiromiya's fortune?

Actually... I forget, was there red involving Rosa and Beatrice's conversation in Kuwadorian? Or was that Beatrice and Kinzo?

I've been suspecting for a while now that Rosa never actually met Beatrice... that plot thread only shows up in the 3rd game, and you would think there'd be mention of it in the second...


Edit: Yeah, red text only supports Kinzo and Beatrice's conversation, not Rosa's.

[Dlanor A. Knox]

Maybe Rosa just dreamed about meeting Beato?

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Dlanor A. Knox

Maybe Rosa just dreamed about meeting Beato?

I'm more inclined to think that the entire sequence with Rosa confessing to the other adults is fake.

All we know for certain about 1967 is that Beatrice is dead.

[Dlanor A. Knox]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

I'm more inclined to think that the entire sequence with Rosa confessing to the other adults is fake.

All we know for certain about 1967 is that Beatrice is dead.

I dont think that everything that Rosa said was a lie, maybe she found her death body...

[LaplaceNoMa]

It's not about 'what she said is lie', it's 'the conversation where Rosa confessed to other siblings didn't happen at all'

[Dlanor A. Knox]

Yeah I noticed
Gomenasai ^^;;

[Marion]

Why would Rosa lie about it? What in the world would be the motive of suddenly saying to the adults out of nowhere "Beatrice is dead and I killed her"

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Marion

Why would Rosa lie about it? What in the world would be the motive of suddenly saying to the adults out of nowhere "Beatrice is dead and I killed her"

I meant that the entire scene with her saying that was faked by Beatrice as a way to draw attention to the 1967 Beatrice without actually revealing the truth behind what occurred.