2013-02-14, 23:10 | Link #26542 | |
books-eater youkai
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
|
More than half U.S. diplomatic posts may not meet security rules
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...91E00O20130215 Senate Republicans block vote on Hagel nomination http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...y.html?hpid=z1 Quote:
__________________
Last edited by ganbaru; 2013-02-14 at 23:20. |
|
2013-02-14, 23:29 | Link #26543 | ||||||
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2009
Location: classified
|
Yeeeah, sure you hate it.
Or do you just miss me or something? Because you know I'm going to post about this. Quote:
Paralympian Oscar Pistorius was charged on Thursday with murdering his girlfriend So murder is an accident now huh? Never heard that one before. Quote:
Homeowner Shoots At Intruders http://www.lex18.com/news/homeowner-shoots-at-intruders Armed 87-year-old saves woman: Cops http://www.krqe.com/dpp/news/crime/a...ves-woman-cops Armed Detroit candy store owner fatally shoots attempted robber http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in...tore_empl.html There are plenty more where those came from. Quote:
NO, actually they don't unless they take it upon themselves to do so. There are a lot of Yahoos in the police. Colorado Springs man shot 14 times by police during chase in December, coroner reports http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news...oroner-reports Quote:
Police: All Empire State shooting victims were wounded by officers http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/25/justic...state-shooting Quote:
See, when you have a CCW, you are resposible for your actions. Whereas, unfortunately, many police can literally get away with murder. Look at what happened to Chris Dorner, do you really believe that the cabin he was in was set on fire on accident? Quote:
We don't know the particulars of this case yet and the police are charging him with murder which means they know something we don't. He may have intended to kill her. From the article you posted it says: "There are witnesses and they have been interviewed this morning. We are talking about neighbors and people that heard things earlier in the evening and when the shooting took place," police brigadier Denise Beukes said. The circumstances of the shooting have not yet been released. The investigators know something is amiss, and they'll have to process the crime scene, get the evidence to the forensic specialists and determine what happened. That will take weeks, so rushing to judgement is not a good idea.
__________________
|
||||||
2013-02-15, 00:39 | Link #26544 |
NYAAAAHAAANNNNN~
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 35
|
From those articles, it seems that the citizens are better versed in firearms than their police.
Banning firearms won't work. All these people will do is find a bedspring and make a ballistic knife. So what is next, ban beds?
__________________
|
2013-02-15, 01:34 | Link #26545 |
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
Author
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 66
|
I think the LAPD and the New York police gave us several "fine examples" of the police being wilder and less trained than gangs on occasion or a symptom of a pattern of a department being in need of massive housecleaning. The Oregon CCW holder in the video showed exactly how CCW is supposed to work. Sadly, there are also many examples as well where such thoughtfulness was nowhere to be seen (or the permit holder was emotionally not level enough for the responsibility)
That's why anecdotes or singular events aren't really useful for pro and con.
__________________
|
2013-02-15, 05:08 | Link #26547 | |
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
Author
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 66
|
Quote:
Bugs, Mr. Rico!
__________________
|
|
2013-02-15, 06:59 | Link #26549 |
NYAAAAHAAANNNNN~
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 35
|
As of now, I am posting from my smartphone on the MRT, which has jammed 4 times for a total of 25 minutes within 7 stations, at 3 of them.
The schoolboy sitting on my right is grumbling about being late for tuition, while the couple across me fell asleep waiting for the train to move again. And I am late for my night shift. Hope I don't get sacked.
__________________
|
2013-02-15, 07:41 | Link #26550 |
books-eater youkai
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
|
Weary passengers disembark crippled Carnival ship in Alabama
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...91D0YT20130215 Technology whizz kid tackles Greek tax evasion http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...91E08920130215
__________________
|
2013-02-15, 07:46 | Link #26551 | |
Unspecified
Scanlator
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Unspecified
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2013-02-15, 11:41 | Link #26552 |
Knight Errant
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Age: 35
|
@ Accidental shootings vs. Home invasion defense stats:
Consider the following: Let's say you have a 99% chance of correctly identifying a home invader on a given night (so you have a 1% chance of not identifying him, and a 1% chance of also falsely identifying someone as a home invader) and you have a 1% chance of having your house attacked by a home invader in a given year. That means that over a given year, with 365 nights, you will have on average 0.01 home invasion incidents(only happens to you one year in a hundred), but you will have 3.65 occasions where you falsely identify a home invader (false positive). This means that if you believe there is a home invader, there's a 0.2% (0.01/3.66) chance that what you have identified is in fact a home invader. Let's be a bit more pessimistic, and say that you on average have a home invasion incident once every year, then it will be 1/4.65, or only 20% chance of any given incident actually being a home invader. With 99% accuracy you would need to expect more then 3 such incidents in a given year before you broke even in correctly identifying a thief. As a side note, it's this math that's the reason your burglar alarm is always going off without there being any actual burglar. When an event is rare, false positives are much more likely then correct identifications. |
2013-02-15, 12:56 | Link #26553 |
NYAAAAHAAANNNNN~
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 35
|
Eastbound Train hit by service failure
Looks like we are not as squeaky clean as the foreigners portray us to be anymore. Government seeks to make Singaporean NSmen more appreciated I wish they would bloody stop using 1942 as an example - it is politicians who lead the soldiers to die, conquer and invade, not the state as an overall.
__________________
|
2013-02-15, 13:56 | Link #26554 |
Meh
Join Date: Feb 2008
|
@Don
The irrelevancy of made up numbers aside, I'm confused as to how you calculated those numbers. If you assume that there is a 99% chance of someone making a good positive ID vs. a 1% chance of making a false ID, how the heck do you come out with a result that says you're hundreds of times more likely to falsely ID someone? |
2013-02-15, 15:15 | Link #26555 | |
cho~ kakkoii
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 3rd Planet
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2013-02-15, 16:04 | Link #26556 | ||
formerly ogon bat
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 53
|
Let's not get too dramatic, that rock *only* had the punch of the bomb that destroyed Nagasaki, so it sucks if it hits your city, but you would need to be a really small country to be obliterated by that (unless of course, some cold war era protocol activates and the nukes start flying because the meteor destroys a Russian city (yeah, reminds me of a Superman comic where destroying the Fortress of Solitude could trigger the destruction of Earth)..
Quote:
Quote:
|
||
2013-02-15, 16:11 | Link #26557 | |
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
Author
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 66
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2013-02-15, 16:36 | Link #26558 | |
He Without a Title
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: The land of tempura
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2013-02-15, 17:03 | Link #26559 | |
Knight Errant
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Age: 35
|
Quote:
Addressing the numbers, it's a quirk of probability and statistics that I was taught in College (lots of people get this wrong!). Basically, let's take a slightly easier example. Let's say there's a bad flu going round, and it affects 1 person in 1 thousand. The US government has just come out with a great new test, that is 95% accurate, with only a 5% chance of being misidentified (IE a person with a flu being unidentified or a person without a flu being falsely identified). If everyone is tested for the flu, and you're one of the positives, what's the probability you actually have the flu? Answer: Most people start out saying "95%" which is quite wrong, don't feel bad if that's your first instinct (it was mine too!). To figure this out, we have to count the number of each of these cases: 1. Number of people with the flu, and correctly identified as having it. 2. Number of people with the flu, and incorrectly identified as not having it. 3. Number of people without the flu, and correctly identified as not having it. 4. Number of people without the flu, and incorrectly identified as having it. Let's say we take 100,000 people? How many will be in each category? Remember, 1 in 1000 have the flu, and the test is 95% accurate. 1. 100,000*1/1000*0.95=95 people 2. 100,000*1/1000*0.05=5 people 3. 100,000*999/1000*0.95=94905 people. 4. 100,000*999/1000*0.05=4995 If you've just received a positive diagnosis, you're either in case 1, or case 4 (both those receive a "positive" diagnosis). The likelihood that you actually have the flu, in this case, is 95[population we're interested in]/(4995+95 [the total population]) or 1.8%! Most of the people who tested positive never had the flu! You can apply similar logic to guns, of course my logic was slightly flawed, as you don't have a chance of identifying an intruder every night, but only every night you hear some kind of noise (be it an animal, or a family member). Still, if you crunch the numbers, you will probably get false positives vastly outnumbering actual positives. Try it yourself with numbers you think are "reasonable". For instance, you'll need to know how likely you are to experience a home invasion in a given length of time, number of nights in the same period you "hear a noise", and how accurately you can identify an intruder (be it 5%, 50%, 95%, or 99% etc.) From there you can get your ratio of false positives to actual positives. As an aside, the above maths is why Doctors don't like to rely on single tests, and like to first look for obvious symptoms etc. More "tests" decidedly swing the maths in our favor. |
|
2013-02-15, 17:55 | Link #26560 | |
I disagree with you all.
Join Date: Dec 2005
|
Quote:
Sorry, Don, but by treating false positives and false negatives like they're the same event, you've made your explanation more confusing. |
|
Tags |
current affairs, discussion, international |
Thread Tools | |
|
|