Anime Saimoe Tournament 2012 (Japan)

[ion475]

Right. Plus, Shizu got over 400 votes, which is more than what most Saki girls got in the first round. Shizu is one of the strongest girls in Saki, so it's not like she's just benefiting from being a Saki girl.

As usual, total # of votes a girl get in a match just doesn't mean much when you consider the outside factor. In Shizu's case, her battle with Kyouko boost the # of vote she gets. If you add up the total # of votes of each match during that day...

C01: 819
C05: 661
C09: 713

C01 has 100+ more votes than the other two group. Hack, it is ~100 more votes compare to B07 (Azu-nyan v. Sakurako v. Yuno, 716 votes total), which I believe (I didn't calculate the # of votes in every single group) is the 2nd highest total # of votes so far...

To help things even more, one of the girl in C01 (Rise) would get nearly zero votes b/c of a clear strong-weak series split. Instead of having the 3rd place getting ~100 votes, Rise got less than 50, meaning more votes go to the other two girls...

[Team Rocket Elite]

It seems Chinatsu wasn't really able to challenge Kuuko afterall. Another Yuru Yuri character bites the dust. Astarotte wins her group easily as expected. Yune barely manages to edge past my pick of Erica. I guess the Strike Witches can't win them all. Once again it's pretty unfortunate that two of the characters in this match had to go out in Round 1.

When Maria was strong she had the wierd habit of drawing Round 1 opponents that were even stronger than she was. She drew easy opponents this time but has fallen to the point where the match may not be so easy. I think Maria will still win, though. I haven't had a good impression of Milky Holmes so far so I think Sherlock is out. I'm hoping Asuha will win. Cure Peace shouldn't have trouble winning her match.

Votes:
Maria
Touhara Asuha
Haibara Ai

Predictions:
Maria
Touhara Asuha
Cure Peace

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by ion475

As usual, total # of votes a girl get in a match just doesn't mean much when you consider the outside factor. In Shizu's case, her battle with Kyouko boost the # of vote she gets.

Actually, I think you're overstating this a bit.

In a competition where the total number of votes are in the hundreds rather than the thousands, I find it hard to imagine a lot of people sitting out matches just because their girl is against weaker girls. With vote totals these low, a stealth sniping could easily happen at almost any time, and so I would think that a girl's supporters would consistently show up and vote for her.

Shizu and Kyouko's match had a lot of votes because Shizu and Kyouko both have a lot of supporters. Period. So I think that the total # of votes a girl gets in a match *does* matter. Remember last year's winner of Mami Tomoe? She was consistently getting more votes in her matches than Madoka was getting in her matches, which is why I wasn't surprised when Mami defeated Madoka in the semi-finals (and went on to win it all).

Now, some of Shizu and Kyouko's supporters are going to sit out matches involving other girls because they don't necessarily care about every match, and so this is why some matches have significantly more total votes than others.

Also, some matches with low vote totals were very close, so it's not just a matter of "Close match = More votes".

[Ichuki]

Originally Posted by ion475

As usual, total # of votes a girl get in a match just doesn't mean much when you consider the outside factor. In Shizu's case, her battle with Kyouko boost the # of vote she gets. If you add up the total # of votes of each match during that day...

I think so as well since if a strong girl was in a weak preliminary group or a weak group and get really low vote amounts doesn't mean they are weaker than someone who got a lot of votes because their group is strong.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Ichuki

I think so as well since if a strong girl was in a weak preliminary group or a weak group and get really low vote amounts doesn't mean they are weaker than someone who got a lot of votes because their group is strong.

Why not? Maybe people simply overestimated the strength of the "strong girl" or underestimated the strength of the girl who got more votes in a different group.

[broken270]

Placing today's image here.

Spoiler:

[Xellos-_^]

i am kinda surprise Pre-cure isn't doing better since there are quite a lot of H-doujins of pre-cure floating around.

[Ichuki]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

i am kinda surprise Pre-cure isn't doing better since there are quite a lot of H-doujins of pre-cure floating around.

How? the graph shows Peace stomping Haibara and Gruier so far O.o;; maybe its because how slow the match is I suppose

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

i was talking about precure in general not just this match.

Oh oops sorry for misunderstanding ^^;; hmm maybe their plot or art aren't up to the voter's standards I guess.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Ichuki

How? the graph shows Peace stomping Haibara and Gruier so far O.o;; maybe its because how slow the match is I suppose

i was talking about precure in general not just this match.

[anisu]

I like Ai's curve. Looks like a bunch of saimoe veterans staying up to vote in the first hour remembered her, and then she flatlined afterwards.

It's surprising how Sherlock is dominating. That looked like it was going to be a 3-way match. I guess Milky Holmes hasn't lost all its power, after all.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by anisu

It's surprising how Sherlock is dominating. That looked like it was going to be a 3-way match. I guess Milky Holmes hasn't lost all its power, after all.

Just realized Asuha might be being ignored because of Astarotte in round 2.

[ahelo]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Actually, I think you're overstating this a bit.

In a competition where the total number of votes are in the hundreds rather than the thousands, I find it hard to imagine a lot of people sitting out matches just because their girl is against weaker girls. With vote totals these low, a stealth sniping could easily happen at almost any time, and so I would think that a girl's supporters would consistently show up and vote for her.

Shizu and Kyouko's match had a lot of votes because Shizu and Kyouko both have a lot of supporters. Period. So I think that the total # of votes a girl gets in a match *does* matter. Remember last year's winner of Mami Tomoe? She was consistently getting more votes in her matches than Madoka was getting in her matches, which is why I wasn't surprised when Mami defeated Madoka in the semi-finals (and went on to win it all).

Now, some of Shizu and Kyouko's supporters are going to sit out matches involving other girls because they don't necessarily care about every match, and so this is why some matches have significantly more total votes than others.

Also, some matches with low vote totals were very close, so it's not just a matter of "Close match = More votes".

I think the exact fact that there are less voters would mean that the voters are more "decisive". It's definitely true that snipers can snipe easily in a tournament like this but that doesn't mean this is a testament to a power of a character because she won over a character with a lot of voters. It could definitely be true that Shizu and TOSHINO KYOUKO just had "that" many supporters but it could also be just the Saki faction voting for Saki characters. It's definitely seen in the preliminaries that Saki fans will vote for any Saki character on board (thus having an enormous 40+ characters in the tournament) and that might as well be the case here. People get excited with strong matches thus the high voter turnout (especially a Saki VS Yuruyuri one) but what if Shizu did not battle it out with Toshino Kyouko? Will she actually break the 400-mark and be considered strong?

This is actually one of the Saki faction's problems IMO. They tend to vote on all Saki characters but they never exactly have a strong favorite. One can contest that Koromo or Nodocchi's the favorite but I remember that prelim in 2010 in which Stelath Momo actually placed higher than her. I know it's just a prelim but it also somehow made me realize that the Saki faction really had no "ace"pre se. This is why they always get choked in the Semifinals.

Actually this WAS one of their problems. This year they have Toki who made it clear in the prelims (about 100 votes away from the second placer which was Saki herserlf and 150 votes away from the third placer and she only had 333 votes so like almost everyone voted for her) and in this round (Breaking the 400 mark like it was nothing even though she didn't need that much people to turn up on her match).

[hinakatbklyn]

Alittle bit too late for a comeback Asuha. At least she reached the third round last year.
Still no wins for Hayate (Maria). This better not be Hayate's year to go 0 for the season. Maon made sure Tamayura had at least one representative in the second round.

[Zeroryoko1974]

O_O
C04
1st 261 Maon Sakurada @ Tamayura
2nd 195 Maria @ Hayate The Combat Butler
3rd 76 Laura Bodewig @ Infinite Stratos

C08
1st 198 Sherlock Shellingford @ Detective Opera Milky Holmes
2nd 190 Asuha Tohara @ Astarotte's Toy!
3rd 148 Mayuri Shiina @ Steins;Gate

C12
1st 303 Yayoi Kise @ Smile Pretty Cure!
2nd 115 Ai Haibara @ Detective Conan
3rd 96 Gruier Serenity @ Bodacious Space Pirates

[Micchi]

Picks: 2-1 (22-14)
Predictions: 1-2 (27-9)

My, how Hayate has fallen. Tamayura has a chara in R2 already and they still don't (have to wait another 3 days). Little Asuha tried her best to catch up, but fell a bit short T_T

Picks: Rinko, Sana, Yasuna
Predictions: Houki, Sana, Yasuna

♥ ♥ S A N A ♥ ♥

YouTube

https://youtu.be/akpHmh9SWuc

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

[Zeroryoko1974]

Spoiler for todays match poster:

D01
Houki Shinonono @ Infinite Stratos: <<篠ノ之箒＠IS -インフィニット・ストラトス- アンコール 恋に焦がれる六重奏>>
Rinko Tamaki @ Natsuiro Kiseki: <<環凛子＠夏色キセキ>>
Harue Akado @ Saki: <<赤土晴絵＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>

D05
Tmaao Kurei @ Haiyore! Nyarlko-san: <<暮井珠緒＠這いよれ!ニャル子さん>>
Hibino Shiba @ Kamisama Dolls: <<史場日々乃＠神様ドォルズ>>
Sana Inui @ Mashiroiro Symphony ~The Colour Of Lovers~: <<乾紗凪＠ましろ色シンフォニー -The color of lovers->>

D09
Gertrud Barkhorn @ Strike Witches: <<ゲルトルート・バルクホルン＠ストライクウィッチーズ劇場版>>
Yasuna Oribe @ Kill Me Baby!: <<折部やすな＠キルミーベイベー>>
Sakurako Gibbard @ Saki: <<ギバード桜子＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>> :3

[Ichuki]

Picks- Sakurako

Prediction- Houki, Tamao, Yasuna

[RJ TAYLER]

So "Ai" day has come & gone for another year. Bye too to the recently married Rie as well. Commiserations to the recently defeated Karlslander cutie Erica as well.

[ion475]

Gotta love fakes XD...Maria in tracker leads the whole way and end up losing to Maon.

It's still a really nice win, though. Tamayura survives for one more round...
♪~~~~~♪♪~~

==================================
Another 1-2 day (Total 21-15). My record is getting uglier by days...

To start, I know Maria is weaken quite a bit, but didn't expect Tamayura/Maon to show up...
For Sharo - I just didn't have her win with the crappy showing from Kokoro, guess Milky Holmes still has some strength.
For C12 - was it ever in doubt anyway?

Moving onto Group D:
Vote:
D01: <<環凛子＠夏色キセキ>>
D05: <<乾紗凪＠ましろ色シンフォニー -The color of lovers->>
D09: <<ギバード桜子＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>

Prediction: Hoki, Sana, Gertrud. D01 is so weak that it's impossible to guess who'll win, while D09 is not much better. Even D05 is only mediocre at best...

[ahelo]

Maria used to get 1000 votes. No she can't even get 200. How the mighty have fallen.