2015-02-18, 14:56 | Link #35842 | |
Junior Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
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2015-02-18, 15:07 | Link #35843 | |
Franco's Phalanx is next!
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Little England, Europe and Asia
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At the time, private lenders were were forcefully domestic banks and pension funds, and optionally any other. And after ruining those, a new round of austerity measures were requested to increase unemployment and lower wages, so that another loan could be obtain by the Greek taxpayers to refund those private banks, that guess what... increased the debt too. That's the program, Greece has to successfully complete in order to enter the next one. The only thing Germany's austerity has succeeded in is increase debts, shrink GDPs, increase unemployment, lower wages, and increase taxes. Greece is just the worst example, since Germany supported those corrupt governments, while now attacks in every way possible one that tries to fight it.
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2015-02-18, 15:48 | Link #35844 | |
He Without a Title
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: The land of tempura
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I do believe that austerity and reducing government waste helped in countries like Germany and Sweden but I'm pretty sure that it was only one of several measures to increase competitiveness. While governments from countries like my own and Greece continue failing to effectively reduce useless government spending, tax evasion and welfare abuse the only solution they have is to increase taxes on the dwindling middle class which is a zero sum game in the long run because it breeds poverty which in turn increases government spending in welfare and law enforcing due to growing unrest. I'm not arguing that debtors should stop trying to collect, far from it, I'm actually arguing that while we southern Europeans continue to show this much incompetence in governing ourselves we shouldn't expect for economy growth to just magically appear aside from finding some hidden oil deposits that suddenly flood the country with easy money (and even that would probably only breed more corruption knowing our rotten culture). Meanwhile people like the Portuguese Prime Minister tell us young folks to emigrate like it's a good thing. Immigration is at the lowest point in 50 years, emigration levels are the highest levels since the 1960s when we were under a harsh dictatorship and 50 years behind the rest of Western Europe and the birth rate is, as with most European countries, at alarmingly low levels while life expectancy is at an all time high. Our social security can't hope to cope with these factors and the solution keeps ending up being raising taxes and lowering salaries. We do have wine though. It's excellent and surprisingly cheaper by the day. I wonder if that has anything to do with lowering salaries and employee protection. Did you know I'm mandated by law to give up to 2 extra hours a day to my company if they so choose with an upper limit of a 50 hour work week with a limit of 150 total hours a year? Do I get compensated for it? Yes. The company then has to pay me a 25% (taxed) bonus over my base salary which, given that average salaries for a young employee are around 800€ before taxes, means about an extra 200€... a year. Or just over 1,30€ per hour of work (before taxes. Should work out to 1€ per hour afterwards.) No wonder our own Prime Minister tells young folks to leave the country...
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2015-02-18, 19:43 | Link #35845 | |||||||||||||||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Hamburg
Age: 54
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So I guess that the EU/IMF gave Greece a bailout was a mistake in the first place, then? They should have let Greece go bankrupt instead, while the official Greek government was _pleading_ for help? I'm pretty sure that doing so would have led the same people to break into violent tirades against Europe for being completely irresponsible and lacking solidarity. Just like they do today. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Quote:
At this very moment, the vast majority of privately held Greek debt is by Greek banks. You want to wipe them out? Really? Quote:
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That's the problem with the idea that the world market doesn't matter. And merely demanding that Germany does huge wage increases to "adjust" their competitiveness (how should that be done? Wages are negotiated by the employers on the free market, not the government) can only fail, because even if we were so stupid to do so, it wouldn't make Greek products one bit more competitive on the world market. Quote:
*shrug* I point out that those nations who were in trouble and went for reasonable reforms (austerity) are looking markedly better nowadays. The Germany/Austria/Netherlands block, the scandinavians and England. And that those countries who refuse to do so or at least drag their heels are underperforming (France and Italy). Quote:
Spoiler for Answer can be found here:
This is one more reason why defaulting on the debt won't help Syriza much. They still won't have the money for their programs. There is no significant debt service to "free" money from. Quote:
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What you write about "New round of austerity" is naturally wrong, as per usual. This was the first time that Greece got money in return for binding reform promises. And you seriously allege that increasing unemployment was a goal? To "force a loan" on the Greek taxpayer? A loan which has absurdly low interest and a repayment schedule of no sooner than 2022, to be ended after 2050? For this, the other European nations scratched together 240 billion Euro. You don't think that these could be used for a more productive and profitable thing than tossing it into the bottomless Greek hole??? With the sole thanks being ridiculous conspiracy theories from moonbats? Gawd, what I would give just to know that none of my money is spent on your behest. Please do a Grexit soon, that you may finally have to take responsibility for your actions. Quote:
Hmm? Q4 had Portugal with +0.5% up. You sure? Quote:
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What was necessary back then was to maintain the integrity of the currency and restore the market's trust. As you may recall, back then, all the pulitzer prize professors were repeating that the Euro would die within 1-2 weeks. The same pulitzer prize professors which are now railing against austerity. Quote:
Again, austerity does not mean "squeeze the weakest for their last penny" (we didn't do that in Germany either), it means "adjusting income and expenditure so that they remain in a closer corridor". HOW you do that is entirely up to you. Quote:
Something has to give. Nothing else is sustainable IMHO. |
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2015-02-18, 23:07 | Link #35846 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Get ready for $10 oil:
"At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why." See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ready-...230002605.html |
2015-02-19, 00:07 | Link #35847 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: nowhere
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Oklahoma votes to ban Advanced Placement U.S. History.
Apparently they don't like students learning how Americans doing bad things was bad. Because presenting your country as having been anything but the best is unpatriotic. |
2015-02-19, 03:06 | Link #35848 | |
I disagree with you all.
Join Date: Dec 2005
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2015-02-19, 03:38 | Link #35849 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Hamburg
Age: 54
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Good comparison - pretty much.
The funny thing is that the average German couldn't care less about Germany being a/the leader of Europe or whereever. Essentially we want to be left alone, earn our living, trade with the world and THAT'S IT. I have developed a better understanding of Americans lately. |
2015-02-19, 03:57 | Link #35850 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
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2015-02-19, 04:08 | Link #35851 | |
Zero Two Best waifu 2018
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Living the NEET dream
Age: 27
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2015-02-19, 09:01 | Link #35852 |
NYAAAAHAAANNNNN~
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 35
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While people are whining about the Equation Group.....
Lenovo Caught Shipping Adware On New Computers
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2015-02-19, 10:07 | Link #35853 |
books-eater youkai
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
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More than 100 possibly exposed to 'superbug' within UCLA Health System
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0LN0ZS20150219 Pressure mounts on shippers, union to settle U.S. West Coast ports dispute http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0LM1SJ20150219 Netanyahu on collision course with White House over Iran http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0LN1EC20150219
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2015-02-19, 15:16 | Link #35854 |
Franco's Phalanx is next!
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Little England, Europe and Asia
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Schäuble should join Farage in dissolving the EU... and I am very kind with this personal observation, since this kind of attitude is viewed far worse by the PIIGS his fiscal policies imposed upon a whole continent have created.
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2015-02-19, 15:45 | Link #35855 | |
He Without a Title
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: The land of tempura
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You're also too quick to jump to the conclusion that I'm advocating that Germans should dictate what us southern Europeans do when I said nothing of the sort. I admit our failings and that austerity has a role to play however the amount of support from the rest of the Eurogroup has appeared lacking to us who feel almost robbed of future prospects. The impression we get is that our "partners" mostly acted like loan sharks waiting to collect instead of being an equal helping another recover from a disease. Quantitive Easing worked wonderfully for the US apparently and I thanked the gods when the ECB finally got around to doing it on this side of the Atlantic at long last. I hope that now, at long last, we'll see some actual recovery in all of Europe. As for the 0.5% growth I find it far too close to a statistical anomaly to be considered sustainable growth but I admit that I may be too close to the issue at hand to actually see any improvement happening. I know that the amount of poverty I see around me isn't decreasing in the least, quite the opposite in fact which makes it hard to get any glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel. I love my country and have a rather stable job in a field where qualified manpower is lacking and even I find myself thinking time and time again that I would be better off leaving my family behind and moving to a different, northerner, European country (I would say friends but most of them have already left). Bottom line I don't want anyone's pity, I just want people to understand that at most the rest of the Eurogroup has tried to stop the bleeding from the wound of us Southern European countries. The solution hasn't been reached yet.
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2015-02-19, 17:01 | Link #35856 | ||||
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Join Date: Jan 2009
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Here in the Netherlands austerity has been disastrous. We had similar labor market reforms during the late 90s/early 2000s. A new labor-libertarian coalition made a deal with the unions and employers to reduce employment protection and privatized public utilities and health insurance. Currently we now have a 'temp' based economy and older (40+)workers are shed, only to be rehired as self employed. Investment firms bought and ran down the utilities while profits were siphoned off and costs for the consumer increased while service declined. Health insurance cost has exploded and coverage declined, far more than can be explained by an aging population. It's next to impossible to loan money for start ups or mortgages (I had to buy my house cash), the economy is slowly recovering but unemployment is not decreasing. Education is increasingly inaccessible for lower income students and general inequality is on the rise. Essentially we're trading away our long term economic vitality to comply with the SGP criteria. Forgive my cynicism, I hope Germany made better agreements then we did, but I'm afraid you haven't seen the full social cost yet of these reforms. |
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2015-02-19, 17:29 | Link #35857 | ||||||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Hamburg
Age: 54
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I do understand your position though. I'd say that the chances of the Euro were squandered because the elites ignored that the old methods of dealing with problems (debt and inflating) wouldn't work anymore. Quote:
I do see a very substantial difference between Portugal and Greece, for example. Portugal made serious efforts to consolidate (successfully on the numbers, albeit at the cost of massive unemployment), and they have always sought joint agreement with European partners. They _deserve_ support in return. And I think that Juncker is already cooking up something along these lines. Greece: Not so much. I'll leave it at that. Quote:
Competitiveness does _not_ rise by going QE, just the opposite. But this is what the countries in trouble need every bit as much as they need a solution for the unemployment. Quote:
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2015-02-19, 17:52 | Link #35858 | ||||||||||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Hamburg
Age: 54
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I am seriously puzzled by the utter confidence of the people who advocate debt-financed spending programs. We recently had a very nice experiment of exactly that in Japan. You are aware of the outcome, right? Quote:
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Hm. So what exactly are you proposing to do? |
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2015-02-19, 20:10 | Link #35859 | |||
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
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What I do suggest is that the German austerity program, as implemented during the 2000s, was made possible through circumstances, the nature of the German economy and the timing. It's not a one-fit-for-all solution. Italy and France could benefit from a similar labor market restructuring program when the European economy has recovered. What I feel you forget is that demand all across Europe is down now (unlike in the mid 2000s) because of the recession and austerity programs. Even if export driven economies currently would implement an austerity program, there is not enough demand in other European countries to offset the drop in domestic demand. The result is a low/negative growth economy stuck in a fiscal straightjacket. Quote:
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I don't advocate Japanese style infrastructure spending or their interpretation of QE. Governments needs to keep up the purchasing power of the population during a recession caused by a financial crisis, this is the opposite solution from what is needed after a crash at the end of a boom-bust cycle. Wage moderation and lower public sector employment are not the answer in this scenario. A temporary deficit and increased debt are a far lesser evil than a stagnant jobless recovery. Currently? There is a savings glut and a demand shortfall so EU government should focus on increasing the purchasing power of lower and middle incomes with tax breaks and expand public sector employment. Apply measures to prevent this extra private sector income to be converted in to savings. On a country by country basis we need to check for the need of housing market reforms and financial sector restructuring. |
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2015-02-19, 20:15 | Link #35860 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
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Percentage of export to EU of total exports: 57% Percentage of export to Euro countries of total exports: 36.9% https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFak...len/09_AH.html As you can see the trend of both numbers is to go down since the start of the statistic in 1991. |
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current affairs, discussion, international |
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