2008-03-07, 19:29 | Link #281 | |
Love Yourself
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Northeast USA
Age: 38
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There are two reasons that could discredit that which I am aware of (and there are likely more). First, with regard to the rise in autism cases it is suspected that we are simply more aware of it and thus better able to diagnose it than before - the rates of autism may actually be the same. Second, it was noted that autism seems to have higher rates in urban centers. Everyone is being vaccinated, but there are disproportionately higher rates in certain regions as compared with others. Either way, a president isn't a scientist (sad sigh...) and they're bound to have the same biases and beliefs as most average people. As long as he has knowledgable people determining policies and advising him, that's what counts.
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2008-03-07, 19:37 | Link #282 |
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Boston
Age: 35
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The vote tallying isn't done yet, but it's expected that Obama will win Texas by three delegates. Clinton won the primary, but a third of Texas's delegates are awarded based on the outcome of the caucus, which was like a second round of voting that day. Obama does a lot better in caucuses (he's won every single one so far), so although Clinton won the combined primary and caucus popular vote in Texas, she'll probably have less delegates than him (currently the delegate count in Texas is tied between them, but some caucus delegates haven't been awarded yet).
Obama is expected to win Wyoming tomorrow and Louisiana by a bigger margin on Tuesday. After that the next contest won't be until April 22 in Pensylvania, which is said to be a lot like Ohio and another expected Clinton win. After Pennsylvania, the only big state left will be North Carolina, which votes May 6, and is expected to be won by Obama. Currently, overall, Obama leads Clinton by 140 elected (pledged) delegates. As it's been said, Clinton will only be able to close that lead by winning the rest of the primaries and causes 60-40, which is extremely unlikely to happen. However, the Democratic Party nomination process has crazy, horrible, undemocratic rules that give 800 prominent Democrats (mostly elected politicians like senators and governors) each a vote in deciding the nominee. They're called super delegates and make up 20% of the total amount of delegates. They're allowed to vote for whomever they want to at the convention, and because there are so many of them, neither Obama or Clinton will be able to get a majority of the delegates needed to clinche the nomination with elected delegates alone. So far, Clinton has about 40 more super delegates backing her than Obama does. 350 super delegates still haven't backed either candidate. Even people in the Clinton campaign realize that they'll need between 75 and 115 more super delegates than Obama to win the nomination. It would be political suicide for the Democratic Party if the super delegates decided the nomination by letting the candidate who has less elected delegates and votes to receive the nomination. If they did that then the Democratic Party would be hated so much that they'd lose the general election in November no matter what, and would probably have to change their name to the Oligarchal Party or something. But things are a little complicated. Obama will most likely have the most elected delegates, but he may not win the total popular vote (adding the votes up from all 50+ primaries and caucuses). This is because he has won all of the caucuses so far, which have small turnouts so voters' votes count more so than in states with primaries. Obama is currently in the lead in the total popular vote, but when you add Michigan and Florida in, Clinton is winning. And those two states are another problem. They voted before February 5, against party rules, and thus had all their delegates stripped (as opposed to the Republican Party which only took away half of the delegates from states that violated voting date rules). Clinton won both those states, and is trying to get her wins there to count for delegates, but that chance is very low. There is some talk of doing the Michigan and Florida primaries over, but that prospect is small too, primarily because of costs. If they were to be done over, Clinton might win them again. There's also the issue of electability (lol my spell check underlines that word): which candidate has a better chance of beating John McCain in the general election. It would seem that Obama is the obvious choice for that, as he appeals to a lot of independents, and most of the states that Clinton won will go to the Democrats regardless of who they nominate. The exception is Ohio, which Clinton won and was sort of the "deciding" state in 2004. Obama won Virgina however, which has been Republican for a very long time but it may soon have a Democratic governor and both of its senators as Democrats. It is expected to be fiercely contested in the general election. In short: Clinton doesn't have a chance of winning the most elected delegates. She only has a few things to hope for: -winning the total popular vote, -her win in Ohio being deemed extremely significant, -and the Michigan and Florida primaries being counted, or redone and winning them again. If those things happen, she may be able to persuade enough super delegates to back her and give her the nomination. Otherwise, Obama is the clear winner. here's a good article about the division in the Democratic Party: http://www.economist.com/world/na/di...ry_id=10808693 Last edited by Autumn Demon; 2008-03-07 at 19:48. |
2008-03-07, 20:37 | Link #283 | |
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 66
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EVERYTHING is a risk/benefit analysis -- in the case of vaccinations in general, the benefits so outweigh the risks that it makes anti-vaccine folks look just as ridiculous as people who worry more about a terrorist attack than getting into a car wreck... o wait.... Average Joe/Jane simply does not have the skill-sets of critical thinking and risk/benefit analysis under their hood. That's either a serious flaw in the education and raising of the population ... or the intended result of it. On topic: nice summation of the situation by Autumn Demon --- though I could see a "buyout" or "call in the favors" by Clinton of the super-delegates more easily. The Democrats have managed to blow their chances on their own three major times in the last 50 years. They could certainly do it again.
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2008-03-08, 02:30 | Link #286 |
Prospective Cog
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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It should be noted that Barack Obama is poised to win the Democratic nomination having lost (or likely to lose) the primaries in California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, or, in other words, seven out of the eight biggest states in the United States (the exception being his home state of Illinois). Many of these states, especially California and New York, constitute the foundation on which the electoral strategy of the Democratic Party depends on, while others (i.e. Florida and Ohio) are crucial swing-states that the Democrats must capture in order to insure victory in the November general election. Moreover, and as a continuum to this point, many of the states that Senator Obama has achieved victory in, and which are responsible for the large lead in delegates he maintains over Senator Clinton, are traditional Republican strongholds, that, even in the rosiest of scenarios, the Democrats have little chance of capturing in the general election.
There is also to consider the fact, that, even in those states in which Senator Obama has clearly bested Senator Clinton, and which can likewise be said to sway to the Democratic Party in the general election, several factors have worked to the advantage of the junior senator from Illinois that are not present in the general election. Of those advantages, the most obvious is that the African-American vote constitutes a far greater proportion of the vote in a Democratic primary than it would in a general election because African-Americans are overwhelmingly registered as party members of the Democratic Party. Thus, while African-Americans may account for 40% of registered Democratic primary voters in a state such as, say, Georgia, they would only amount to something on the order of 15% in a general election environment. The other advantage which has allowed Senator Obama to capitalize in left-leaning states over the candidacy of Senator Clinton, and which is not indicative of the circumstances expected in a general election, is his near invincibility in states wherein there is no statewide primary but instead an electoral caucus, that is, by definition, inclusive only to active party members and is not representative of the statewide voters as a whole. An example can be found in a state like Minesota, which although going to Barack Obama, had a total turnout of something on the order of 300,000 voters in a state with a population of close to four million eligible voters. As a way of summarizing, I would submit that the above mentioned factors and my reasoning throughout is intended as a stern warning regarding the viability of Barack Obama, not only as a presidential candidate, but even as a genuine victor of the Democratic ticket. I strongly believe that the Senator from Illinois has exploited patently ridiculous idiosyncrasies that can only be found in such an archaic system as the one the Democrat Party uses to choose their presidential candidate. He also disingenuously cloaks his campaign in the guise of appealing to a higher political ground, while in truth being very much about identity politics (i.e. garnering 90% of the African-American vote). This final point, ironically itself, may prove Mr. Obama’s final undoing, as his inability to appeal to two of the more significant voting blocks in the country, namely, Latino-Americans and Senior Citizens, could cost him in the general election in several crucial states, with Florida in particular coming to mind. Last edited by Alleluia_Cone; 2008-03-08 at 03:31. |
2008-03-08, 05:52 | Link #288 | |||
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Another is the question of whether the democratic party will continue to be able to get the voters out in mass. If they keep the mass they have in the primaries, they will win just by numbers. However, a number of these states are open and semi-open primaries. These allow independents and even republicans to vote in the democrat's primary. Whether they will keep voting for a democrat in the general election is a total unknown. On the same note, Obama pulls in a large number of people who identify as independent. One of McCain's strong points is getting independent voters. Which way they end up going could decide everything. Finally, Obama does not play identity politics. This is the nature of the beast. African-Americans are voting 9:1 for him because of race. Bill Clinton used to be very popular among the same voters. However, the news claims that they feel used and would likely not support a Clinton ticket in the same numbers as an Obama ticket. Obama is able to pull in white males and in some places, white females too. The latino population will likely not vote for a republican in the general election if Obama is nominated. Whether they will vote for him or not vote remains to be seen. Senior-citizens are likely going to vote for the democrat, regardless of who it is. However, I wonder whether young vs old or healthcare is the real reason they are picking Clinton. (Disclaimer since this reads pro-Obama: I distrust Obama, am very displeased at how Clinton has been acting, and definitely do not want Gore.) Last edited by bayoab; 2008-03-08 at 06:09. |
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2008-03-08, 15:10 | Link #289 | |||||
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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In any case, I rail mostly against the manner that the Democratic candidate for President is chosen. It seems to me a process that is riddled with unfairness and at war with itself—its workings seem to have a schizophrenic condition. In one respect it wants to be as democratic as possible by awarding delegates in a proportional basis as opposed to the mostly winner-take-all Republican example, but then it completely undermines itself by the awarding of Super Delegates, which is completely and wholly un-democratic. The rules seem to matter way too much as to who will actually win the contest. For example, imagine if the Democratic Party system was replaced by that of the Republicans, with Hillary Clinton winning all the big states, this contest would have been over a month ago. Last edited by Alleluia_Cone; 2008-03-08 at 17:23. |
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2008-03-08, 18:35 | Link #290 | ||
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As an aside: If you grind it down, the general election really comes down to who wins a selection of about 10 states. The other 40 don't really don't matter at all as they will swing the same way every time. Also, in absolutely no surprise, Obama took Wyoming. |
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2008-03-09, 19:37 | Link #291 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Toronto
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Often times, I'm sure many people forget that the President doesn't run the country, rather it's the President's party that dominates. With this being said, of course Bush's Presidency co-exists with Bush's Republican Leadership. Although Bush does have the power to veto and stuff at times, he is ultimately a pet of the Republican party when it all comes down to it. Without the support of his party, Bush is nothing. Now with this said... McCain is not a reliable candidate IMO. Come on.... His runner-ups are Huckabee and Romney... I wonder if any of these people have a sense of how the middle class work. Why do McCain's supporters support him? Militarism and Nationalism. Properties and qualities which I find in Bush, I feel are reflected in this McCain character as well. Truth be told, McCain would fail worse than Ron Paul (who actually knows and is willing to do something) in the polls, if it weren't for his "Vietnam Hero" stuff. That really shouldn't be accounted for in the polls for presidency, but I guess this is a big popularity contest when it comes down to it.. Now, Hillary is very political and very knowledged in the matters present. She does have experience, especially because she was somewhat a co-Chief when Bill was Chief. Her influence on Bill was tremendous, and Bill wouldn't make decisions without consulting her first. Of course, we all know that the Clinton Administration was quite successful in generic terms, as well as in comparison to Bush's Administration. However, as Obama put it, Hillary was on a corporate lawyer on the board of Walmart while he was coping with the streets of Illinois. From what I know, Chicago and Detroit are few of the worst places in America (amongst the gang territories and other places like Conneticut, Compton, L.A., Brooklyn, Atlanta, Miami, etc.) Obama is young in terms of presidency. However, he's demonstrated his ability to speak, and like Reagan, I think Obama understands that sometimes, Words are more important than Actions. Now, just listening to him speak would make him nothing more than your average politician of modern society. However, he's not only put forth his ideas and plans, but he's also made accomplishments in the cold streets of Illinois. All in all, the election is a big one, but I'm rooting for Obama. I wouldn't mind if Hillary got in, I mean she's a tough one, seemingly unsentimental at times, but people would just ridicule her if she used her -femininiimiminism- and got all girly and stuff. But man, Hillary has to lighten up at the right times. She's too "all-business" looking. It's like a facade, yet it seems like the real her. I really hope Democrats stick with the democrat nominee, even if it's not who they were rooting for from the start. Otherwise, America is going to have itself another 4 years of war and ... Meh, we've all seen Bush, right?
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2008-03-09, 20:31 | Link #292 | |
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Do you really--REALLY--think that the democratic candidates are more "qualified" to understand how the middle class works? Let me go ahead and say that ANY ONE who buys into the "Republicans are rich fat-cats, Democrats are for the little guy" cliche IMMEDIATELY fails in the areas of political understanding, economics, research, and critical thinking. What does it take to understand how the middle class works, though? Does it take the experience of living with middle-class hardships, or does it take economic understanding that almost no one in the middle class has? If it's the hardships of living as middle class, well... McCain and Huckabee win that contest. McCain's father and grandfather were very well paid admirals, but not so well paid thatn he was born into riches, and he received military officer pay for his entire pre-politics career. Huckabee was raised by a fireman in small town Arkansas and then worked as a small-town pastor prior to running for governor. Obama and Hillary both had comfortable middle-class childhoods, and went into law and politics right out of college. And all of them know #$^@ all about economics. Experience in the middle class does not provide an inherent understanding on how to solve middle class problems! Huckabee at least understood some basics about sound finance and applied those principles to great success in Arkansas, but he hasn't really expressed an understanding on a higher level. I always get the impression that Hillary might understand economics to some degree, but if she does she has other priorities.
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2008-03-09, 21:19 | Link #293 | |
^.^
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Toronto
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You shouldn't have ignored the rest of the post. It describes my reasoning as to why I believe McCain should not be President, as well as how Democrats this year, such as Hillary and Obama, do realize the issues more than just from a broad perspective. I'll say it again. Without American militarism and nationalism, do you think someone like McCain who only understands the broad concepts, obviously from the things he wants to do and all, and his "I don't know much about economy" should bubble up sympathy from Americans enough to swap their votes? So I mentioned that it was a popularity contest. As I said, Hillary is probably most experienced about the whole thing. And yes, experience does play a key role in all this. I'm not for Republicans or Democrats specifically - I'm not even American. So I don't follow that "Republicans are rich fat-cats, Democrats are for the little guy" cliche or whatever you would like to call it. However, judging from the campaigning so far, who would you say is seemingly a more profound and knowledgeable character in the election? Honestly, at this point, I would say one of the Democrats. Not McCain. My ignorance to Republicans is simply because #1. Repubs ain't getting media this election. #2. Ron Paul is being ignored in the Republican community. That's really about it. But when it comes down to it, McCain is winning, and since he's openly mentioned his failure to understand certain key aspects of the American Commonwealth, he's just going to be another Bush representing the Republican party. This was touched upon in my "rest of the post" as well. Sorry if my opening statement seemed too blunt for you. . Now that the history has been mentioned, let's go to the present. How is McCain doing now? After torture, how is he living? How's Romney doing now? How's Huckabee doing now? And how's Obama doing now? You say Hillary and Obama both had comfortable middle class childhoods, but Obama's left that to help the streets. Hillary took the additional step and somehow ended up being First Lady. Economics, it's as you say, but also not. Often times, you see the budget and you say, "Wow, things really got to go up here, go down here, etc. etc." But that's not the key. Things change. It's inevitable. It doesn't remain balanced as long as the economy grows or shrinks. Now, experience in the middle class doesn't mean you know economics right off the bat, because everyone has their own bias and opinions. However, it does give a better understanding in comparison to the higher class. Hillary knows economics because with Bill, she succeeded on this matter. Obama doesn't only have his own experience, but he's studied and experienced other opportunities to learn more as well. I don't know about you, but I can't really say the same about the Republican candidates right now. I guess thats about it..
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2008-03-09, 22:28 | Link #294 | ||||||
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You can't simplify that as "militarism" and you CERTAINLY can't simplify it as "nationalism". It's just not that simple. It is true, though, that McCain has support as being the pro-military candidate. That's about all he has that puts him in the same camp as the rest of the republicans, anyway. Quote:
As for political cliches... You may say you don't follow the cliche, but everything you've said so far lines up with it. And the campaigning so far has given NOTHING to judge these candidates by, unless you judge mud-slinging as a negative factor. Just by their speeches so far, they're full of nice words with minimal explanation of plans or ideas, spotted with bickering about the other candidate. Vague platitudes don't tell us anything. Quote:
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These sorts of decisions can't be made on emotional impressions.
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2008-03-09, 22:51 | Link #295 |
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I've found something interesting here. I think there is some truth to this, but as Kyuusai said, living in the middle class does not mean you know how to help the middle class, but only that you can sympathize. However, the campaigns boast of having been in the middle class (Edwards, Obama), so is this just talk? Also, according to what I've read, economics play an important role, so that means the wealthy and famous (aka experienced politicians who know most about economics, and I'm not talking about Romney either) are best suited to help the middle class? If this is true, then it would change a lot of my opinions...just something to think about.
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Last edited by KholdStare; 2008-03-09 at 23:16. |
2008-03-12, 22:27 | Link #296 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Yet again, in no surprise, Obama took Mississipi. This means he has undone what Clinton gained with Ohio. She ended up coming out behind on delegates in Texas.
Florida will be having a mail in primary. This contains the interesting quote: Quote:
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2008-03-12, 22:48 | Link #297 | ||
Somehow I found out
Join Date: Feb 2006
Age: 40
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I find it surprising that Democrats in Florida are so incensed over their delegates not being counted at the national convention (since they did break DNC rules after all), that numbers that significant would consider not supporting the Democratic nominee. I would have thought most people in Florida would have realized that their state probably isn't going to decide the Democratic nomination. They are going to have a big say in deciding the Presidency, though.
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2008-03-12, 23:09 | Link #298 |
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Well it's been talked about. The present problem is if Obama wins but did not win big states like California, Pennsylvania, New York, etc..., then there's a good chance he won't win it in the general election. There were some good arguments to this, such as NY was Clinton's state so duh, California will vote democrat no matter who the candidate is, and Illinois, another big state, is Obama's. However, other big states such as Florida and Ohio might be "disappointed" Clinton didn't win and those independent voters might switch to McCain. That's pretty much a short rundown of what's going on.
Note that this is a summary, not an analysis.
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2008-03-13, 01:29 | Link #299 | |
Cutengu
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Shameimaru's lap
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The Young Turks calls the Nomination for Obama for good reason.
Clinton is essentially running a scorched earth campaign now. Quote:
The question should be who wins the swing states, like the Mid-West and the West? In case you haven't noticed, Obama has been winning those states, often blowing HRC out of the water.
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2008-03-14, 22:12 | Link #300 |
Bittersweet Distractor
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 32
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Honestly if the Democratic nomination voting system wasn't such crap, Obama wouldn't be winning this easily. See Alleluia_Cone's posts for details as he pretty much describes everything very well.
Obama does have a better chance of winning the entire election that Hilary, but that doesn't mean he's the best candidate for the Democrats in my eyes. I almost think Mccain is better than Obama... And I detest republicans! Like I've said before though, it's a sad day when Oprah can decide our next president. And btw it doesn't really matter if Mccain has a better understanding of the economy than the democrats because he wants to stay in Iraq for the next 100 years (if that's what it takes), which is wasting billions of dollars every week. National debt just keeps getting worst baby.
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debate, elections, politics, united_states |
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