[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[rogerpepitone]

As for the scorpion charm:
- A killer who truly believed herself to be a witch, as chronotrig is suggesting, and who noticed the charm, would probably find herself unable to unable to enter the room. I'll agree with him on that much.
- A killer who believed magic fictional could kill Natsuhi in her sleep and do something like:
:: toss the bracelet onto the nightstand; Jessica would probably think "Mom was just saying things to be nice."
:: dress Natsuhi, put the bracelet into her pocket, and they might not suspect she'd even gone to sleep.

Also, the door couldn't have been painted too long before Natsuhi woke up; the paint was still wet.

...There was a dark red liquid stuck to her fingers and some unpleasant marks around the doorknob that looked as though something had been tearing at it.

chronotrig: Why do you think that Natsuhi's door was similarly vandalized in Episode 2?

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

I've mentioned this a few times, but she wants "the lost love" between her and Battler that the epitaph promises. She might also believe that love between furniture and humans is possible in the Golden Land, which means that the love Kanon and Shannon feel will also be granted at the same time. The part about reviving Beatrice probably means reviving her fully, which is what Kinzo's goal was for her all along. Remember how Beatrice is sometimes described as a ghost flitting around while scheming up her own resurrection ceremony, at the end of which, she will presumably regain her magical powers.

I'm just joking because I think this is funny. But if this is true it sounds like (since Sayo= Shannon = Kanon = Beatrice) that Sayo loves at least 3 people and her ultimate wish for the golden land is to have "a harem end" with all her love interests.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

chronotrig: Why do you think that Natsuhi's door was similarly vandalized in Episode 2?

At the end of EP2, Beatrice actually got a chance to speak with Battler and explain her version of the events. If we take that magic scene in Natsuhi's room to be the same or at least similar to the way Beatrice explained it to Battler, then the marks are probably to symbolize Natsuhi's spiritual mirror fighting off Beatrice. However, unlike the EP1 charm, the mirror wasn't supposed to be an absolute defense, so Beatrice "won" in the end and everyone inside died.

Also, the door couldn't have been painted too long before Natsuhi woke up; the paint was still wet.

More evidence that Sayo had to rush to complete the first twilight before morning, I guess.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Jessica specifically told Natsuhi that the charm should be hung on her door, and Natsuhi seemed serious about doing it. Both a touching moment, and the last time Jessica saw her mother. There was a fair chance that Jessica would notice it was gone and point that out, which would make Battler less likely to believe in magic. Meanwhile, the "fact" that Beatrice was unable to enter a sealed room would make Battler more likely to believe in magic.

Also, it's likely that the Beatrice personality must follow the rules of magic regarding this charm. As we see in EP2, "Beatrice" grabs the doorknob of Kinzo's study and looks like she's gotten burned. I'd imagine that, if Sayo as Beatrice realized that the charm was hanging there, she'd freak out and get out of the way as soon as possible as though she'd put her hand on a hot stove. The red marks on the door might have been a way to atone for that mistake, or it might just have been to make it clear to Battler that Natsuhi was supposed to have died if not for the charm.

But Battler never saw any of those things. Depending on how you interpret ep1, there may not have even been a Meta-Battler to see the scene between Jessica and Natsuhi in ep1. For that matter, if we believe Shannon to be "Beatrice," she didn't see the scene between Natsuhi and Jessica either, and thus might not have even known Natsuhi had it unless and until she saw it hanging on the doorknob. The only person who would even notice the charm might have seemed to protect her was Natsuhi herself, and its efficacy as a magical ward is only as useful to revealing something to Battler as Natsuhi makes it the next morning. If Natsuhi never talks about it in front of Battler, it's completely useless.

And if Jessica never mentions giving it to Natsuhi, or that Natsuhi took it seriously, how would anyone know she actually hung it on the doorknob, as was just pointed out? You could just throw it out the window or stash it in a drawer. Jessica would've then just assumed her mom was lying again.

The way I see it, the following scenarios are possible:

• No one observed Natsuhi and Jessica's conversation. No one but Natsuhi was aware of the charm. No one actually came after her. The handprints on the door are something else (see ep2, where they appeared even though Natsuhi was apparently never in her room).
• No one observed Natsuhi and Jessica's conversation. No one but Natsuhi was aware of the charm. The killer came to her room, noticed the charm, and decided to pretend it worked on the off chance Natsuhi would credit the charm with protecting her or that Jessica would mention it later. If she didn't mention it, no big deal. They picked another victim. Alternately, they're crazy and actually believe the charm would repel them, and had to pick another victim who wasn't protected. Either way. Should be noted that this didn't seem to stop them in ep2 from killing Jessica, who should've still had hers.
• No one observed Natsuhi and Jessica's conversation. No one but Natsuhi was aware of the charm. Someone came to her room, noticed the charm, and decided to paint the handprints to suggest it worked. This person was not the killer, and may have even become one of the victims when caught in the house late at night.
• No one observed Natsuhi and Jessica's conversation, but Jessica was intentionally or unintentionally induced to give it to Natsuhi on purpose and the person who made her do this was aware this would happen, so they didn't need to actually be eavesdropping. The purpose of the charm was actually to explain why Natsuhi wasn't planned to be a sacrifice in the first place, as the killer had some other use in mind for her.
• The killer observed Natsuhi and Jessica's conversation, or was told by Jessica (intentionally or unintentionally). They decided to "spare" Natsuhi to keep up the illusion of a witch.
• Someone observed Natsuhi and Jessica's conversation and decided to play along to help mend their relationship. Natsuhi was either never a target or something else intervened (catching the prankster and using them as a victim instead or just picking other people).

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

At the end of EP2, Beatrice actually got a chance to speak with Battler and explain her version of the events. If we take that magic scene in Natsuhi's room to be the same or at least similar to the way Beatrice explained it to Battler, then the marks are probably to symbolize Natsuhi's spiritual mirror fighting off Beatrice. However, unlike the EP1 charm, the mirror wasn't supposed to be an absolute defense, so Beatrice "won" in the end and everyone inside died.

I don't think we should really rely that much on that scene because Kinzo is in the same room talking to him. And we could just argue that Battler was drunk and he had a funny dream.

I have a lot of problems with the way your explaining this scene, but I don't think it would be worth anyone's time to go through all of them. Shannon's body was the only body he had the time to really check before Rosa chased him out. Battler actually lifted up her head and watched as tons of blood flowed out. I don't think she was simply staked in the forehead. She must of hit her head on something pretty hard. If she was alive she would've needed multiple stitches and blood transfusions. And Nanjo is not alive to perform those things.

[chronotrig]

@Renall:

Spoiler for size:

Originally Posted by Renall

But Battler never saw any of those things. Depending on how you interpret ep1, there may not have even been a Meta-Battler to see the scene between Jessica and Natsuhi in ep1.

Well, I'd imagine that meta-Battler heard of this scene from the "Jessica" in the first tea party, back when everyone was agreeing that magic was real. Battler didn't have to see these scenes since he had both Natsuhi and Jessica with him the whole time, and they might have mentioned it (and in fact, they did mention it).

Originally Posted by Renall

For that matter, if we believe Shannon to be "Beatrice," she didn't see the scene between Natsuhi and Jessica either, and thus might not have even known Natsuhi had it unless and until she saw it hanging on the doorknob.

That's exactly what I'm suggesting. She didn't know Natsuhi had it until the instant she noticed it after opening Natsuhi's door. Before, on the beach, she saw Maria give Battler and Jessica one charm each, so it should have been pretty easy for her to guess where Natsuhi had gotten it from. And Natsuhi wouldn't have hung it on her doorknob unless Jessica had told her too. So Beatrice is capable of guessing all relevant info here, if she needs it.

Originally Posted by Renall

If Natsuhi never talks about it in front of Battler, it's completely useless.

What are the odds that Natsuhi wouldn't mention the bloody marks on the door and the charm once the topic of magic murders has finally been reached? If you know anything about her character, you should be able to guess that this is pretty likely to happen.

Originally Posted by Renall

And if Jessica never mentions giving it to Natsuhi, or that Natsuhi took it seriously, how would anyone know she actually hung it on the doorknob, as was just pointed out? You could just throw it out the window or stash it in a drawer. Jessica would've then just assumed her mom was lying again.

You've ignored the second half of my post there. Beatrice couldn't just throw it away, and it wouldn't help her overall cause much in the end anyways.

[Judoh]

There is a simpler answer. If the scorpion charm represents something else that the detective doesn't see, like for example, a receipt or a duct-tape seal. Than the culprit would not be able to enter her room and would only be able to put a scribble on the door.

[Renall]

A seal (recepit, taped doorway, etc.) is only as useful as the person investigating the seal later. Tape on a door isn't gonna stop anybody from going in or out, it'll just prove whether anyone did go in or out through that door. It wouldn't keep anyone from going into Natsuhi's room, and while it might prove Natsuhi wasn't the killer, who exactly wanted to be sure of that in ep1 anyway?

And I rather ignored the second half of the post on purpose, chronotrig, as I fundamentally disagree with the premises that form the core of the theory, and think they're too out there to really discuss productively. I'm not taking it very seriously for precisely that reason, and I apologize for that, but I'm just really not feeling that one as even making sense.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Judoh

I don't think we should really rely that much on that scene because Kinzo is in the same room talking to him. And we could just argue that Battler was drunk and he had a funny dream.

I have a lot of problems with the way your explaining this scene, but I don't think it would be worth anyone's time to go through all of them. Shannon's body was the only body he had the time to really check before Rosa chased him out. Battler actually lifted up her head and watched as tons of blood flowed out. I don't think she was simply staked in the forehead. She must of hit her head on something pretty hard. If she was alive she would've needed multiple stitches and blood transfusions. And Nanjo is not alive to perform those things.

Hmm, this is the point that's bugged me the most about this closed room, because you're exactly right. The person there was almost certainly dead. However, was that body actually Shannon's?

When Battler comes across the scene, he sees Shannon lying face-down in a pool of blood. It is specifically mentioned that he can't see her face, which is probably covered with blood itself. When he does lift her head, it's clearly stated that he sees a gaping hole in her forehead with stuff dripping out, but then immediately averts his eyes. It's also stated that before he does this, he's already pretty much 100% sure of what he'll see.

In other words, he never saw Shannon's face clearly. We know that Sayo has the tools to disguise herself as Shannon, so she could easily have done the same for another body. No guarantees here that the blood actually came from this particular corpse. If you want, you can even suggest that this isn't a corpse at all, since Battler has never seen a dead person before, much less someone with a gaping hole in her forehead. He's already convinced about what he's going to see, which makes him much easier to persuade than someone in a more normal situation.

@Renall: If you have specific beef, share it. If that theory is right, it explains most of the relevant backstory, as well as the motivation for the crime and a ton of meta-scenes. And so far, I don't think anyone has pointed out any outright contradictions that can't be explained with further evidence from the game.

[Judoh]

Well maybe I should've worded it better. If someone made some kind receipt seal on her door the culprit wouldn't want to enter her room and kill her, but they might want to remove the seal after deciding she would be a good person to frame for killing people.

But after that the seal serves no purpose...

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

In other words, he never saw Shannon's face clearly. We know that Sayo has the tools to disguise herself as Shannon, so she could easily have done the same for another body. No guarantees here that the blood actually came from this particular corpse. If you want, you can even suggest that this isn't a corpse at all, since Battler has never seen a dead person before, much less someone with a gaping hole in her forehead. He's already convinced about what he's going to see, which makes him much easier to persuade than someone in a more normal situation.

That's ridiculous. What happens if he does look closely? Is she now so brilliant she can predict Battler's squeamishness after she hasn't seen him for six years? How in the world could any rational person setting up such a brilliant faked death be so careless as to use the wrong corpse (or fake being dead) and then pray nobody looks too hard?

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Hmm, this is the point that's bugged me the most about this closed room, because you're exactly right. The person there was almost certainly dead. However, was that body actually Shannon's?

When Battler comes across the scene, he sees Shannon lying face-down in a pool of blood. It is specifically mentioned that he can't see her face, which is probably covered with blood itself. When he does lift her head, it's clearly stated that he sees a gaping hole in her forehead with stuff dripping out, but then immediately averts his eyes. It's also stated that before he does this, he's already pretty much 100% sure of what he'll see.

In other words, he never saw Shannon's face clearly. We know that Sayo has the tools to disguise herself as Shannon, so she could easily have done the same for another body. No guarantees here that the blood actually came from this particular corpse. If you want, you can even suggest that this isn't a corpse at all, since Battler has never seen a dead person before, much less someone with a gaping hole in her forehead. He's already convinced about what he's going to see, which makes him much easier to persuade than someone in a more normal situation.

Rather than a body double or fake corpse it would be much easier for me to accept that Kanon was Beatrice and that Battler met with her in Jessica's room. They talk and then the bomb goes off and kills them both.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

That's ridiculous. What happens if he does look closely? Is she now so brilliant she can predict Battler's squeamishness after she hasn't seen him for six years? How in the world could any rational person setting up such a brilliant faked death be so careless as to use the wrong corpse (or fake being dead) and then pray nobody looks too hard?

Well, remember that the corpse is covered in blood and has a massive face wound. Then, remember that it's lying face down, so you'd actually have to disturb the crime scene to find out who it is.
Then, remember that this is the last in a series of over a dozen murders. Battler is already totally overwhelmed by it all. Furthermore, he's able to use the other corpses to predict which twilight this is going to be, and he has absolutely no reason to suspect that this is anyone other than Shannon. People tend to see what they expect.
Furthermore, this is shortly before he finally gives up and accepts the existence of the witch, so he's worn out and not thinking clearly.

Rather than a body double it would be much easier for me to accept that Kanon was Beatrice and that Battler met with her in Jessica's room. They talk and then the bomb goes off and kills them both.

However, you must admit it is a bit odd that the game even leaves the possibility of this corpse being a body double. Think about it: in both EP1 and EP2, the corpse most likely to be a body double is Shannon's. Yes, Kanontrice is another possible theory, though I don't think it explains everything.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Well, remember that the corpse is covered in blood and has a massive face wound. Then, remember that it's lying face down, so you'd actually have to disturb the crime scene to find out who it is.
Then, remember that this is the last in a series of over a dozen murders. Battler is already totally overwhelmed by it all. Furthermore, he's able to use the other corpses to predict which twilight this is going to be, and he has absolutely no reason to suspect that this is anyone other than Shannon.
Furthermore, this is shortly before he finally gives up and accepts the existence of the witch, so he's worn out and not thinking clearly.

So what? She can't know that all that stuff will prevent him from seeing through a risky ruse. No one can know that.

If Battler's perspective is reliable in ep1-4, it is impossible for anyone to predict how he will act. No one has seen him for six years. That's a long time, especially when going from age 12 to age 18. He's essentially matured into an adult in that time, and he hasn't been in contact with anyone. Any explanation or plan that relies on Battler acting in a certain way is incredibly risky for precisely this reason. There's no way of knowing whether Battler will do something or not. There's no way to predict it, and if what Battler sees is true, there was no one controlling him directly either. Keep in mind, they're setting this up with less than a day to observe Battler's behavior.

I just can't accept that as even being possible. Whether the killer or not, "Beatrice" would not take a risk like that without some degree of insurance (disguise like ep2/4, staying at a distance like ep4, hiding herself like ep1, etc.). There's literally nothing stopping Battler from looking too closely, and no way to know for certain that he won't. That's far too great a gamble. I think Kinzo's the only person who would be pleased with that risk.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

However, you must admit it is a bit odd that the game even leaves the possibility of this corpse being a body double. Think about it: in both EP1 and EP2, the corpse most likely to be a body double is Shannon's. Yes, Kanontrice is another possible theory, though I don't think it explains everything.

Actually I don't think we can think it's possible that a Shannon has a body double in there. Not in episode 2 anyway. There is a red that says therefore no body double tricks exist So it's very ridiculous.

It's more likely for George to be alive then Shannon. He has a stake in the exact same place as Kyrie does in episode 3 where they describe it as not being fatal. Battler never checks George or Gohda it would be more likely for them or Kanontrice to confess than Shannon.

[Renall]

If we believe the past tense to be relevant, Kanon should already be dead by that point in ep2. If tense doesn't matter... well we know it does, from ep5.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Renall

If we believe the past tense to be relevant, Kanon should already be dead by that point in ep2. If tense doesn't matter... well we know it does, from ep5.

If we look at past tense we can see it this way. In the tips both Jessica and Kanon are stabbed in the chest.

Kanon was dressed up to look like Jessica's corpse.

[Kitsu]

Nope. Jessica was stabbed into her back

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Kitsu

Nope. Jessica was stabbed into her back

The back of her chest. It's still the chest. don't be so literal.

[chronotrig]

@Renall:

Spoiler for size:

Originally Posted by Renall

So what? She can't know that all that stuff will prevent him from seeing through a risky ruse. No one can know that.

If Battler's perspective is reliable in ep1-4, it is impossible for anyone to predict how he will act. No one has seen him for six years. That's a long time, especially when going from age 12 to age 18. He's essentially matured into an adult in that time, and he hasn't been in contact with anyone. Any explanation or plan that relies on Battler acting in a certain way is incredibly risky for precisely this reason. There's no way of knowing whether Battler will do something or not. There's no way to predict it, and if what Battler sees is true, there was no one controlling him directly either. Keep in mind, they're setting this up with less than a day to observe Battler's behavior.

I just can't accept that as even being possible. Whether the killer or not, "Beatrice" would not take a risk like that without some degree of insurance (disguise like ep2/4, staying at a distance like ep4, hiding herself like ep1, etc.). There's literally nothing stopping Battler from looking too closely, and no way to know for certain that he won't. That's far too great a gamble. I think Kinzo's the only person who would be pleased with that risk.

And isn't Beatrice supposed to be very similar to Kinzo in that respect? Remember what Ange said about the odd way Beatrice sent the letters to the survivors? Or the fact that the "Beatrice" personality was supposed to be a risk taker to match Battler's personality (with my theory, supported by the flashback in EP6)?

The simple fact that the person is trying to not only kill everyone on the island, but do it in a way that looks magical with closed rooms instead of just poisoning everyone almost proves that they're willing to take enormous risks.

Also, being a risk-taker does not mean being stupid. For all the reasons I've given, you can assume that most people would not have noticed the trick in this situation. Many people would not disturb the crime scene in the first place. Part of the reason for following patterns all the time is so that Battler also follows those patterns, so he's quick to jump to conclusions just like Keiichi from Onikakushi.

@Judoh: The "no body double tricks" probably only applies for EP1, and that could have been a failed body double trick because everyone who saw Shannon saw through it. Or, you can assume that in both cases, it was a mannequin instead of a real corpse, which gets around that red.