[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Renall

They didn't "fake" Kinzo's death. That was Kinzo's body. And everyone else was murdered. Unless you're suggesting the corpse that was burned wasn't Kinzo's. After ep5, I find that statement ridiculous. It was Kinzo. Painting him as a murder victim with the others conceals the fact that he was already dead. It does not work any other way. It does not make anyone who was suspicious more likely to conclude he was already dead. To reason otherwise is insane.

There is absolutely nothing that proves that the gold text used to identify Kinzo's corpse, which Battler presented in episode 5, applies to all games.

Originally Posted by Renall

The ep3 FT's killer did not have the revelation of Kinzo's earlier death as a motive. If he knew Kinzo was dead, he took steps to conceal that this fact was already known (perhaps because Krauss would realize that only one or two people are left who would realize he was pre-deceased). If he didn't know Kinzo was dead, he destroyed the body once he discovered it, possibly to make it look like there was one more victim than there really was.

Ah, there you go. You should put all your text in blue since you can't absolutely confirm anything.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Ssol

There is absolutely nothing that proves that the gold text used to identify Kinzo's corpse, which Battler presented in episode 5, applies to all games.

That is ridiculous. When the game starts on the 4th, there is a corpse on Rokkenjima. That corpse is Kinzo's. There are no other corpses.

Do I know this for a fact? No. Does anything prove it? No, but good writing rules prohibit otherwise without some reason or hint. If there is a fake corpse, something needs to be said about it (and something was said in ep4, and it was prohibited, for the shed bodies of ep1). And good writing would indicate that if you've hinted that one person is already a corpse, any corpses you come upon are going to be that person's and not some random extra corpse that happens to have the same number of toes as the corpse that already exists. Occam's Razor. The body in the furnace appears to be Kinzo. The burning of the body makes it impossible to tell when he died. Kinzo died earlier than people thought, and this has been covered up. Add it up and what conclusion do you reach?

Ah, there you go. You should put all your text in blue since you can't absolutely confirm anything.

<Redundant> Battler was up in the kids' room for most of ep3. So hey, maybe Eva did commit all the murders! Or what the hell, maybe nobody was murdered at all! They all decided to go on a picnic at the oceanside during the storm and were crushed by a wayward bus, dying just before Eva-Beatrice declared them dead in red. You can't prove it didn't happen, because Battler never saw any of it!

Be realistic. It's fine to doubt, but if you aren't willing to accept even the tiniest conclusions in the face of overwhelming narrative evidence, where does that leave you?

[Ithekro]

The most basic problem here (aside from the locations of everyone at the time of the murders) is the overly complicated closed rooms. Why was this done? Kinzo (in game three) was not known to be dead, but really was already long dead. His boiler room is the escape hatch, since it cannot be a closed room like the other five rooms.

This setup cannot be a spur of the moment thing...or can it? It seems to well thought up, which would require a good mind to come up with it in the first place. However, that brings up the problem of Kinzo...being dead and all. As of Episode V only four of the servants, Nanjo, Natsuhi and Krauss know for a fact that Kinzo is dead and have known access to his body. Of the remaining known people on the island, Rudolf, Kyrie, Eva, and Hideyosh suspect Kinzo is dead. Rosa seems to be too stressed out to care, and is just going with the flow. Jessica might suspect because she lives there, but there is no real evidence that she does know that Kinzo is dead. Everyone else seems to not know. The closed room plan seems to hinge on using Kinzo's body in the boiler room to make a cover for the way out. Thus someone needed access to the body...or managed to intercept the servants attempting to burn Kinzo's body and then used the altercation as an excuse to put together an overly complicated plan...but for who's benefit?


Seriously...who benefits from the overly complex closed room murders when you could have left them all in one spot?

[Marion]

The point of the rooms seem to be trying to show off things in a way that make you not want to suspect the other people and show such odd events that a witch becomes a possibility. This is why I sort of suspect Kyrie - of all the people suspicious of a dead Kinzo she's the one who brings it up first and the closed room maker has to be very smart to make up these absurd rooms.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Renall

<Redundant> Battler was up in the kids' room for most of ep3. So hey, maybe Eva did commit all the murders! Or what the hell, maybe nobody was murdered at all! They all decided to go on a picnic at the oceanside during the storm and were crushed by a wayward bus, dying just before Eva-Beatrice declared them dead in red. You can't prove it didn't happen, because Battler never saw any of it!

Be realistic. It's fine to doubt, but if you aren't willing to accept even the tiniest conclusions in the face of overwhelming narrative evidence, where does that leave you?

In episode 4 Battler is confined in a room and the whole episode is a bunch of magic scenes. We are presented with almost no absolute facts regarding what actually happened. How are we even supposed to begin creating a theory without ignoring 90 percent of the scenes?

We can still make theories about what happened even if the detective does not witness most of the events. However, we can only absolutely count on:
-The detective's perspective
-The red text

The events we see do give us clues that we cannot ignore even if they are not in red. But to claim that a theory is absolutely impossible without providing any absolute proof makes no sense.

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by Ssol

In episode 4 Battler is confined in a room and the whole episode is a bunch of magic scenes. We are presented with almost no absolute facts regarding what actually happened. How are we even supposed to begin creating a theory without ignoring 90 percent of the scenes?

We can still make theories about what happened even if the detective does not witness most of the events. However, we can only absolutely count on:
-The detective's perspective
-The red text

The events we see do give us clues that we cannot ignore even if they are not in red. But to claim that a theory is absolutely impossible without providing any absolute proof makes no sense.

Therefore, you want to play around with Renall's bus theory since it can't be disproven? This is ridiculous. I know perfectly well that one reason some people went into "WITCHES DO EXIST AND BATTLER IS A FAGGOT" mode after watching the first arc of the anime was that when there were told that the magic scenes should be taken with a major grain of salt, they whined about how then the magic scenes were pointless filler. You're taking the exact same approach, and simply declaring that any scene without Battler is utterly pointless and therefore we're wasting our time.
And as has been observed, scenes that were fake generally have some clue that they were fake, such as magic appearing or characters acting completely different from how they normally are (ie. Natsuhi's scene with Kinzo in Episode 1 was viewed by many people instantly as just plain bizarre.) What evidence is there that the conference scene was faked, and if you cite Devil's Proof, than this entire argument and game is then completely pointless.

[Marion]

I agree with Kaiba. There is no proof to support the conference was fake. I can see scenes being fake when there are obvious signs of magic, such as Kinzo appearing in EP 4 to the adults and summoning Siestas and Demons, but scenes that Battler doesn't see but have no traces of magic in them whatsoever shouldn't be doubted so much. Otherwise Ryukishi would just be trolling us with every scene that Battler isn't in - and that is A LOT of scenes you're talking about.

You have to also remember - to an extent the one showing us these scenes are Beato. She wants Battler to solve the mystery, as EP 5 blatantly showed us, so why the hell would she troll him at times when she doesn't have to. Trolling with magic scenes is a given, she has to do that. But other times there is really no point.

If you need every scene's verification through red text or with Battler in it then you're going to have to ignore many many parts of the story. There is just no point to the game if that's the case.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Therefore, you want to play around with Renall's bus theory since it can't be disproven? This is ridiculous. I know perfectly well that one reason some people went into "WITCHES DO EXIST AND BATTLER IS A FAGGOT" mode after watching the first arc of the anime was that when there were told that the magic scenes should be taken with a major grain of salt, they whined about how then the magic scenes were pointless filler. You're taking the exact same approach, and simply declaring that any scene without Battler is utterly pointless and therefore we're wasting our time.
And as has been observed, scenes that were fake generally have some clue that they were fake, such as magic appearing or characters acting completely different from how they normally are (ie. Natsuhi's scene with Kinzo in Episode 1 was viewed by many people instantly as just plain bizarre.) What evidence is there that the conference scene was faked, and if you cite Devil's Proof, than this entire argument and game is then completely pointless.

At this point we have almost no answers. As I said before the non-magic scenes can give us clues as to what actually happened but cannot confirm what happened.

My argument is simple:
Any theory that cannot be ruled out by red text is possible.

However, probability is a factor and that's why non magic scenes are important. What theory can be made that best fits with what we are shown? I never claimed that my theory was the best I just objected to it being completely ruled out as a possibility.

Regarding the conference scene being faked, let's assume that the conference happened just as shown. How could the culprit have setup all the closed rooms without anyone hearing anything if they were all wide awake the whole time? Someone would have heard something and checked.

Originally Posted by Marion

If you need every scene's verification through red text or with Battler in it then you're going to have to ignore many many parts of the story. There is just no point to the game if that's the case.

That's not my position at all. All I've said all along is that you cannot start ruling out things that cannot be absolutely denied.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Ssol

I agree with this. The time the bottles are found changes with each game.

I don't think there is any element to support this idea. In ep1 a fisherman found a message in the bottle several years after the incident. In ep3 a fisheman found a bottle 2 years after the incident. I don't see any contradiction.
In ep4 we know that another bottle was found on the same day of the incident, however that bottle's existence was disclosed to the public only after the second bottle was found.

Originally Posted by Renall

Eva has no incentive to preserve anything. If she's guilty, she doesn't want anyone to know. If she's innocent, she has to assume the murderer is dead because she was the only survivor. After that, who cares? She knows who died. It won't change anything or help anyone.

EDIT: I'm also highly suspicious of whether the entire incident was considered a crime at any point at all anywhere but the tabloids and in Ange's mind. They just let Ange keep a stake and Maria's diary? That sort of thing would definitely be evidence. If the police actually suspected crime, they'd never have let a stake be handed over to the family as personal effects.

If the culprit was George she'd have all the reasons to keep everything secret
Well even if it wasn't George she could have been similar reasons.

In that timeline the Rokkenjima incident definitely hasn't been labeled as a crime. There is enough confirmation of this.

1) Okonogi saying that he would get in trouble if he calls it a "crime". Why so? Eva was already dead.

2) Nanjo Jr. being pissed off at anyone who claims this is a crime. Why so? He lost his father in that "incident" if that was a crime he'd want justice to be done, not everything covered up.

Originally Posted by Workworkwork

She's been remarked as having lived "Remarkably long", similar to already-dead Kinzo.

She transformed into Virgilia, who was probably Kinzo's Beatrice.

She asked Battler to feel her up. While it might have seemed a joke, it could be a clue.

She's always scurrying around and going "Oh my god! Blood!" when she's the only one there. Being disguised as an old lady, she doesn't fall under as much suspicion.

-Remarkably long? There are a lot of women that lived past the 100 years in japan. Kumasawa being still alive at 80 years is nothing strange.

-Being Virgilia is actually a reason to think she's not Beatrice.
It as if you said that Genji must be Beatrice because he's the vessel of Ronove.

-A clue for what? This is completely unrelated to "disguise" clues

-Absolutely no connection with "disguise" clues.

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

If the invistigation is other, everything is sent back to family as "personnal effect" if it is asked I think.
Maria's diary would have invastegated, with search of fingerprints, copy out etc etc...
After that, it can be sent back as "personnal effects" I think, since it doesn't have anything else to say, if there is precisely something suspicious on it, like other fingerprints that don't come from family members.
But apparamently, the bottles were discovered a few years later no? So by the time, they was nothing suspicious by someone writing in the diary in order to make pleasure to a child...
For the stakes, it is more suspicious. Where were they found? If they were taken out and washed, then they were no more that decorations...

If the stakes were considered murder weapons, I hardly see how they could have been given to Ange.

"Here little child, this is one of the weapons that have been used by the psychopath that killed your parents and your brothers, have fun with it!"

Let's be serious.... >_<

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

Eva come back alone from the island with a mountain of 10 tons of gold!!!

This was never officially stated. For the general public this remained a legend, although pretty much everyone believed Eva did find the gold.

Originally Posted by Marion

I agree with Kaiba. There is no proof to support the conference was fake. I can see scenes being fake when there are obvious signs of magic, such as Kinzo appearing in EP 4 to the adults and summoning Siestas and Demons, but scenes that Battler doesn't see but have no traces of magic in them whatsoever shouldn't be doubted so much. Otherwise Ryukishi would just be trolling us with every scene that Battler isn't in - and that is A LOT of scenes you're talking about.

You have to also remember - to an extent the one showing us these scenes are Beato. She wants Battler to solve the mystery, as EP 5 blatantly showed us, so why the hell would she troll him at times when she doesn't have to. Trolling with magic scenes is a given, she has to do that. But other times there is really no point.

If you need every scene's verification through red text or with Battler in it then you're going to have to ignore many many parts of the story. There is just no point to the game if that's the case.

Marion pretty much summarize my thoughts on the matter, although it must be said that there is a problem with the very first scene we see in ep1, and what we see in ep5

In Ep1 Nanjo explains to Kinzo how he has only 3 months left to live.
In Ep5 Nanjo and everyone comments how sudden Kinzo's death was.

Could it be that Nanjo lied in ep5 for some reasons? Otherwise you'd have to think one of these two scenes is fake although there is no magic event involved.

There is also the scene in Ep1 where Natsuhi talks to Kinzo and Kinzo tells Natsuhi that the family crest is engraved in her heart.

In Ep5 Bern says in red that Kinzo never said that the family crest is engraved in her heart.

There was absolutely no clue given that that scene in Ep1 was fake at that time. And no you can't say that natsuhi didn't see Kinzo's face. Kinzo turned towards her in the middle of the conversation.
There was absolutely no clue that someone was disguised as Kinzo either.

Also red states that no one would mistake Kinzo by sight.

Trying to figure out how that scene wasn't a blatant lie even so it wasn't magical or anything, is a real problem isn't it?

[Kaiba]

Marion pretty much summarize my thoughts on the matter, although it must be said that there is a problem with the very first scene we see in ep1, and what we see in ep5

In Ep1 Nanjo explains to Kinzo how he has only 3 months left to live.
In Ep5 Nanjo and everyone comments how sudden Kinzo's death was.

Could it be that Nanjo lied in ep5 for some reasons? Otherwise you'd have to think one of these two scenes is fake although there is no magic event involved.

There is also the scene in Ep1 where Natsuhi talks to Kinzo and Kinzo tells Natsuhi that the family crest is engraved in her heart.

In Ep5 Bern says in red that Kinzo never said that the family crest is engraved in her heart.

There was absolutely no clue given that that scene in Ep1 was fake at that time. And no you can't say that natsuhi didn't see Kinzo's face. Kinzo turned towards her in the middle of the conversation.
There was absolutely no clue that someone was disguised as Kinzo either.

Also red states that no one would mistake Kinzo by sight.

Trying to figure out how that scene wasn't a blatant lie even so it wasn't magical or anything, is a real problem isn't it?

Not at all because Kinzo's behavior in that scene was so incredibly bizarre and out of character from everything we had seen of him( and would see of him in future episodes) that I immediately concluded that something was wrong with that scene.

Regarding the conference scene being faked, let's assume that the conference happened just as shown. How could the culprit have setup all the closed rooms without anyone hearing anything if they were all wide awake the whole time? Someone would have heard something and checked.

I'm not too sure on how the Third Episode First Twilight murders were committed (I suspect George, but let's not get into that now) but I don't think that would be a concern. What would the adults have possibly heard that could have tipped them off anyways especially if they are in a closed conference room with giant doors?

[Antera Caramichael]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

If the stakes were considered murder weapons, I hardly see how they could have been given to Ange.

"Here little child, this is one of the weapons that have been used by the psychopath that killed your parents and your brothers, have fun with it!"

Let's be serious.... >_<

That's right, and that is why I was thinking that the stakes were pulled out and cleaned before being replaced to their original emplacement (Kinzo's collection or whatsoever), or maybe it what intentionnely given to Ange for some reason.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

This was never officially stated. For the general public this remained a legend, although pretty much everyone believed Eva did find the gold.

I'm sorry but it is definetely said that Eva reconstructed the Ushiromiya Business with the 10 tons of gold she found, like she said in Ep3 ???:
"I will give you this cursed mass of gold."
Fursthermore, I think i remember someone saying that because of the large amount of Gold Eva suddenly injected into stock exchange, it was devaluated... but I don't know if this is true or just a rumor.

[Jan-Poo]

She does say that to Ange. However if my memory doesn't fail me it was said that the existence of the ten tons of gold were still debated.
Eva definitely said that the gold existed, but so did Kinzo, and yet only a few persons actually believed this, and we know that Eva isn't more mentally stable than Kinzo at that point of the story.

If the ten tons of gold were confirmed in that instance, the red text of Lambda in ep5 confirming it wouldn't be such a surprise. Did I miss something?

Everything that Eva did in the market could be explained with the fact that the Ushiromiya were already filthly rich.

Okay in ep5 we know that the economic situation wasn't really that bright. Which means that Eva must have found the gold.

However the general public doesn't know.

[Antera Caramichael]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

She does say that to Ange. However if my memory doesn't fail me it was said that the existence of the ten tons of gold were still debated.
Eva definitely said that the gold existed, but so did Kinzo, and yet only a few persons actually believed this, and we know that Eva isn't more mentally stable than Kinzo at that point of the story.

If the ten tons of gold were confirmed in that instance, the red text of Lambda in ep5 confirming it wouldn't be such a surprise. Did I miss something?

I just read again the Ep3 ???? and it was indeed said several times that the existence of the gold was still to debate.
There was a very few people that believed in the gold because like they said, Krauss searched all over the island without finding anything after 20 years.
Furthermore, we don't know where this gold come from, there is no trace, except the lingot Krauss "inherited".
We know that the 10 tons of gold are real now, so the question is, what Eva did with it?

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Everything that Eva did in the market could be explained with the fact that the Ushiromiya were already filthly rich.

We don't know how rich Kinzo was at the end of his life, none what Krauss did with it until the Family Conference. But what we know is that all the simbling got financials problems, even Krauss with Kinzo inheritance.
But if they were desperatly asking to him 150 million Yen, it means that it was a great sum even them couldn't handle. So I doubt that the Ushiromiya were so "filthly rich"...
You'll agree that it is pretty suspicious that Eva, which Family was killed and so was the main suspect both for the media and the justice, and with all the company she inherited in troubles, succeed to find people dealing with her without any garanted that the investissment is profitable...

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I'm not too sure on how the Third Episode First Twilight murders were committed (I suspect George, but let's not get into that now) but I don't think that would be a concern. What would the adults have possibly heard that could have tipped them off anyways especially if they are in a closed conference room with giant doors?

Remember, the culprit or culprits not only had to move the bodies without making any large sound but had to create the red symbol (paint/blood/etc.) which probably took some time to do.

If you are creating a perfect closed room you would want to do it with as little chance as possible of being detected while setting it up. Yet it appears that the culprit or culprits assumed no one from the conference would hear anything and no one would step outside for a break while the red symbol was painted.

[Kaiba]

Remember, the culprit or culprits not only had to move the bodies without making any large sound

Hardly that difficult, especially if the culprit is someone with decent strength like I assume George would have. And I can't see moving a corpse making enough noise that a bunch of people in a conference room which seems to have pretty big doors would hear.

but had to create the red symbol (paint/blood/etc.) which probably took some time to do.

The culprit had all night to do that, and we've seen a scene (admittedly a strange one, but there was no magic in it) in Episode 1 where if everyone's telling the truth, got painted really fast. Of course that's an if.
And it's fully possible that there's more than one person (say George and Nanjo) and one can dump the corpses while the other can paint stuff.

Yet it appears that the culprit or culprits assumed no one from the conference would hear anything and no one would step outside for a break while the red symbol was painted.

I lost the game when my computer crashed, but I remember that most of the rooms where the victims were found were places pretty far away from the conference hall like the chapel and the guest room. The culprit made the assumption that no one would take a break and head all the way to the chapel or any of those rooms, but it's not an unreasonable risk, and worst case, he could probably hear them coming and hide. I'm not seeing anything that's that much of a concern.

And besides, do you really think all 7 adults conspired together to kill the servants (which seems to be your theory)? There is zero reason for them to do that, after all.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Hardly that difficult, especially if the culprit is someone with decent strength like I assume George would have. And I can't see moving a corpse making enough noise that a bunch of people in a conference room which seems to have pretty big doors would hear.

Since this closed room was planned well in advance the culprit may have done some testing beforehand to check how much sound could be heard from the room the conference was held in while the doors are closed. But if that's the case how could the culprit or culprits be sure that all the adults would have had the conference in that room in the first place?

Originally Posted by Kaiba

The culprit had all night to do that, and we've seen a scene (admittedly a strange one, but there was no magic in it) in Episode 1 where if everyone's telling the truth, got painted really fast. Of course that's an if.
And it's fully possible that there's more than one person (say George and Nanjo) and one can dump the corpses while the other can paint stuff.

So far we have not been given any clues as to how the magic circles were done. But there are many theories that explain how they could have been painted very quickly.

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I lost the game when my computer crashed, but I remember that most of the rooms where the victims were found were places pretty far away from the conference hall like the chapel and the guest room. The culprit made the assumption that no one would take a break and head all the way to the chapel or any of those rooms, but it's not an unreasonable risk, and worst case, he could probably hear them coming and hide. I'm not seeing anything that's that much of a concern.

One of the closed rooms was very close to the room the conference was held in. It's only a problem if someone comes when your only halfway through creating the closed room. It's a risk that probably wasn't that much of a concern for the culprit or culprits.

Originally Posted by Kaiba

And besides, do you really think all 7 adults conspired together to kill the servants (which seems to be your theory)? There is zero reason for them to do that, after all.

I don't see any way possible that all 7 adults conspired together. I also don't see any way possible that Krauss or Natsuhi would be involved in any way with the first twilight. Is it possible that one of the adults was involved whose objective was to keep everyone in conference room while the closed rooms were setup?

[Kaiba]

Since this closed room was planned well in advance the culprit may have done some testing beforehand to check how much sound could be heard from the room the conference was held in while the doors are closed. But if that's the case how could the culprit or culprits be sure that all the adults would have had the conference in that room in the first place?

I personally hold the opposite theory on the murders, that it was not planned in advance, but that's getting into why I think George did it.
And How did the culprit reach the conclusion that the adults would hold a conference in the conference room? Do I reeeeaaallly have to explain that?

One of the closed rooms was very close to the room the conference was held in. It's only a problem if someone comes when your only halfway through creating the closed room. It's a risk that probably wasn't that much of a concern for the culprit or culprits.

I don't have anything to reference off of now, so how close? Could the adults see the door from just outside the conference room? And which person was in that room?

I don't see any way possible that all 7 adults conspired together. I also don't see any way possible that Krauss or Natsuhi would be involved in any way with the first twilight. Is it possible that one of the adults was involved whose objective was to keep everyone in conference room while the closed rooms were setup?

There's no way just some of the adults did it. It would mean that they left the room for a significant period of time, at least half an hour and probably more, and that none of the other adults became suspicious of them in the morning. And why would of the any adults bother killing the servants anyways? The only reason that would make sense is if one of them is Beatrice and is the true murder, but let's just say that I'm all but certain that none of the adults are Beatrice.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I personally hold the opposite theory on the murders, that it was not planned in advance, but that's getting into why I think George did it.?

The closed rooms of the first twilight were not planned in advance at all? I would love to hear your theory.

Originally Posted by Kaiba

And How did the culprit reach the conclusion that the adults would hold a conference in the conference room? Do I reeeeaaallly have to explain that?

To be more specific it was the dining room. Yes, it's safe to assume that they could have a conference there but it would be very difficult to predict how long that conference would last.

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I don't have anything to reference off of now, so how close? Could the adults see the door from just outside the conference room? And which person was in that room?

It's not mentioned in the VN exactly how close the rooms are. In the anime Natsuhi noticed the red paint from the door as soon as they left the room. The anime is not reliable at all though.

Originally Posted by Kaiba

There's no way just some of the adults did it. It would mean that they left the room for a significant period of time, at least half an hour and probably more, and that none of the other adults became suspicious of them in the morning. And why would of the any adults bother killing the servants anyways? The only reason that would make sense is if one of them is Beatrice and is the true murder, but let's just say that I'm all but certain that none of the adults are Beatrice.

There's no need to me to repost what I already posted regarding the motive. I have many other theories as to how the first twilight was done. This is just one of them.

It's much easier to criticize a theory than it is to post one of your own.

Edit: This discussion doesn't have anything to do with episode 5 anymore. If you want to continue this conversation please post you theory in the "[Game] Umineko - Spoilers and speculations" thread.

[Renall]

It's not entirely implausible that there was an accomplice among the adults with the goal of keeping everyone at the conference, but you have to ask how they would have done that without looking suspicious. The adults tend to have a ton to talk about, and only in ep3 do we actually see a conference that properly concludes (well, ep5, but that concludes quite differently). In ep1, Natsuhi has a fit, gets sent out, and Eva and Hideyoshi decide to leave. In ep2, whatever happens, everyone winds up in the chapel somehow. In ep4, it seems the conference never really had a chance to get started.

So it isn't really clear that, barring interruptions, the conference doesn't just happen to run that long all the time. Just never actually pans out most times.

As far as the sound, it's not really clear how sound or things like wet footprints and soaked floors apply to anything. That stuff could be conveniently ignored when it isn't important to the writer. Apparently it's hard to hear things on the island, because there was allegedly gunfire in the house in ep4 and you can't hear it from the guesthouse. If people were going in and out of the house at some point, you'd figure there'd be signs of it, but who knows really.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

That's right, and that is why I was thinking that the stakes were pulled out and cleaned before being replaced to their original emplacement (Kinzo's collection or whatsoever), or maybe it what intentionnely given to Ange for some reason.

We know that the stake Ange got from the police is Mammon, and that the magic scene and game record in Episode 3 claim that Mammon was used to gouge Kyrie's corpse. However, since Maria was dead at the time, there was no objective proof that the stake in Kyrie's forehead actually was Mammon. If Mammon was one of the two unused stakes instead, then we don't have to explain the lack of blood on it/her at all, or speculate about weird occurrences that could remove her from Kyrie's stomach.

EDIT: Actually this leads to a more interesting question. What would Beatrice gain by lying about the identity of the stakes that weren't used?