[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

When Eva-Beatrice made the list of people that died she ended up saying:

"15 people died"

That list of course included all the servants.

If they aren't people then who are the 15 dead people that Eva Beatrice is talking about?

What if the real Genji dies at the begining of each game and is replaced with a robot Genji?

In 1986 it might be possible and I wouldn't put it by Kinzo do make something strange like that. And then whoever is controlling the robot could be commanding it to murder people.

[Jan-Poo]

Personally I don't care if a bit of magic exist. The real point is to try to imagine how the events that happen on Rokkenjima are done by human means.

Now, if no magic is involved and if Ryukishi manages to give a realistic explanation, then he's a genius. Because as things are now it really seems impossible to make everything work perfectly. If he came up with an explanation that thousands of people all together can't get close by, then that's wonderful.

But if there's magic at work, then what is Ryukishi? Nothing exceptional really. Any idiot could use "magic" to explain any incomprehensible fact on his story.

In 1986 it might be possible

A full functional robot undistinguishable from a real human in 1986 is as probable as magic imho. It was only recently that they even get a bipedal robot to walk efficiently with Asimo, and the money involved in such robotic researches would make Kinzo's wealth pale in comparison.

[ghost_zero5]

Well: I said that magic might be at work but that doesn't mean that magic is used for the murders
THAT is a huge difference. Maybe Beato will even say it in red: "No magic was used for murders but magic exists" or something like this.
Well: Ah no, she probably won't say something like this

But yeah: I am also pretty sure that the murders on Rokkenjima were NOT magical, as that would make the whole thing kinda lame as well

But no magic at all would make it even more stupid. As you can't explain the whole "Meta-World" without magic, except a dream, hallucination or something like this but that would be kinda lame and as said make everything that happened senseless.

[June 1983]

I think it's obvious that there has to be different specific culprits in each arc, but that doesn't rule out (in fact, like in Higurashi, I'd say it's pretty much assured) that there is an ultimate mastermind -- though it isn't Beato, just like the "mastermind" in Higu wasn't Oyashiro-sama.

[Tyabann]

Man, I just can't get over how there are NO other Anti-Mystery supporters on this board. Arguing a point is really hard when you have no support.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

If they aren't people then who are the 15 dead people that Eva Beatrice is talking about?

Other servants living in Kuwadorian? It's just a possibility, is all.

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

I wanted to state how "strange" a complete non-magic theory would be.
A complete non-magic theory for the murders is not only probable but most likely the case

Why?

At this point I'd like to bring up a rather improper usage of 'Occam's Razor': If Battler has to go to incredibly convoluted lengths just to explain everything by human tricks (small bombs lol) then it probably isn't the truth.

At this point it just makes more sense to accept that magic exists, in my opinion. Not that Battler can accept that, but...

What Battler has to do is find a human explanation that's simpler and more elegant than the metaworld explanations we're actually shown.

This seems impossible at this point, but even though the question arcs are over, I still don't think we have all the pieces quite yet.

Of course this is all moot if the focus of the plot changes to Battler and Beato vs Lamba and Bern, as the case may be...

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

But of course, your idea with two different explanations is good too. That case we would be back at Virgillia's explanation of schroedinger's cat in Ep3

Yes. Since the metaworld is based around impressions of things that happen in the real world, even if witches are responsible for the murders, that's not the only answer that is possible.

What we should be doing is working together to find the Anti-Fantasy explanation rather than quibbling over which explanation is actually true, because, like I said, it really doesn't matter.

Originally Posted by June 1983

I think it's obvious that there has to be different specific culprits in each arc, but that doesn't rule out (in fact, like in Higurashi, I'd say it's pretty much assured) that there is an ultimate mastermind -- though it isn't Beato, just like the "mastermind" in Higu wasn't Oyashiro-sama.

You're relying on Higurashi too much to explain this. Umineko seems to be about subverting reader expectations.

Remember how we all thought Bern WASN'T a villain?

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

But if there's magic at work, then what is Ryukishi? Nothing exceptional really. Any idiot could use "magic" to explain any incomprehensible fact on his story.

Like I said above, it doesn't matter if magic is responsible in the end, since there WILL be a 'human tricks' explanation that makes equal amounts of sense.

[sento]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

There would have to be at least five or six different culprits if they were human, and they'd all have to be in on it.

This is what I find unrealistic: I really don't see a motive for any human to be responsible for this, especially since most of the people that would have to be involved die at or before the end of each game.

You don't see a motive? Battler's sin. EP4 gives a LOT of hints, even Ryuukishi said this. Beato's behavior for example. After all, she is like Eva-Beatrice was for Eva, a magical mask to the culprit. This is backed up with EP3 Tea Party and Lambdadelta Diary. In the original japanese version, you even get to see how her speech pattern changes when you see her through that mask.

Five or six culprits? Why? With the hints right now, I only see one definite culprit and various random possible accomplices. And that's probably the reason behind Bern being unable to break Rule Z.

[ghost_zero5]

@Kaisos Erranon:
With mystery you mean magic and such things? Or do you mean the opposite no magic - I guess that one but still mystery could also be the other one actually - ?

Btw.: With your why: Did you question my second sentence that it is most likely that a non-magic theory is the case?

Actually, the main reason is that I at least think that Battler will come up with one, whether that one will be the REAL truth or not is another story and it actually wouldn't matter for him to end this game. Furthermore, you could use Schrödinger's cat here, that doesn't deny Beatrice's theory at all.

Regarding your point of an improper usage of "Occam's Razor", I want to conter that one:
"If you exclude the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth" - famous statement of Sherlock Holmes which is of course, from those novels


However, what explanation in the end will be the truth and to what account, we can't know yet anyway.
So here I agree with you, it would probably better to "combine forces" in finding out a "possible" truth than discussing how it will end because that we can't know yet.

But as said I am for the magic exists theory BUT the murders were done by a human and maybe Beato - the witch - want to reveal the truth and that is why she started this.


Regarding "Battler's sin": Beato never said that in red that is why I am sceptical if it really was a "sin" or something totally different but not less important. A sin would be something where he had done something wrong - not that you could probably say something against it anyway as he would have had to be pretty young then - but there is also the possibility that it isn't actually a sin but it just is something really important that happened back then or what could also be is that FORGETTING what happened is in itself the "sin" as it was so important (at least to Beatrice).

[sento]

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

But as said I am for the magic exists theory BUT the murders were done by a human and maybe Beato - the witch - want to reveal the truth and that is why she started this.


Regarding "Battler's sin": Beato never said that in red that is why I am sceptical if it really was a "sin" or something totally different but not less important.

She said it in red.

And with your point about Beato, the whole "Who I am?" and "I'm here and I will kill you" final red text don't make any sense. It's more like Beato want to see Battler finding her real identity.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

@Kaisos Erranon:
With mystery you mean magic and such things? Or do you mean the opposite no magic?

Anti-Mystery. "There are some things that cannot be explained by human tricks alone", or something like that.

Basically it's the viewpoint that nearly everything the game shows us actually happens, which I understand is very unpopular around here.

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

Btw.: With your why: Did you question my second sentence that it is most likely that a non-magic theory is the case?

Actually, the main reason is that I at least think that Battler will come up with one, whether that one will be the REAL truth or not is another story.

Yeah, exactly. Battler will come up with an explanation. He'll probably win in some fashion. And that'll probably be that.

I doubt the story will actually confirm whether the explanation is true. That's not the point.

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

Regarding your point of an improper usage of "Occam's Razor", I want to conter that one:
"If you exclude the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth" - famous statement of Sherlock Holmes which is of course, from those novels

I want to see Battler quote that now.

In any case, since there's no magic in Sherlock Holmes, that makes perfect sense, but here...

Originally Posted by sento

Five or six culprits? Why? With the hints right now, I only see one definite culprit and various random possible accomplices. And that's probably the reason behind Bern being unable to break Rule Z, the roulette.

Please, explain. Also, I really don't think that the Extra TIPS can be considered as evidence outside of being useful information. They're not in the actual games and I don't think they'll be in the anime, and Ryukishi is overseeing how that goes, so...

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

So here I agree with you, it would probably better to "combine forces" in finding out a "possible" truth than discussing how it will end because that we can't know yet.

Yup.

So, let's see. The only parts of the story Anti-Fantasy can really and truly use are a) What Real-Battler sees and b) the red text.

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

Regarding "Battler's sin": Beato never said that in red that is why I am sceptical if it really was a "sin" or something totally different but not less important. A sin would be something where he had done something wrong - not that you could probably say something against it anyway as he would have had to be pretty young then - but there is also the possibility that it isn't actually a sin but it just is something really important that happened back then or what could also be is that FORGETTING what happened is in itself the "sin" as it was so important (at least to Beatrice).

To me, this along with the distinct lack of Engrish from both Real and Meta-Battler tells me that they aren't, in fact, the real Battler which both the cousins and Ange remember.

Originally Posted by sento

And with your point about Beato, the whole "Who I am?" and "I'm here and I will kill you" final red text don't make any sense. It's more like Beato want to see Battler finding her real identity.

The Beato we see in Kuwadorian always asked the same question... as we should be doing.

Exactly who is she?

[ghost_zero5]

Btw. even Anti-Mystery should doubt a few lines that Beato said. After all she lied various times already.
Btw.2: I don't understand your last sentence completely.
Do you want to say that Battler isn't the one Ange and the cousins remembers to be Battler.
Actually, I think he is exactly the person that Ange remembers as even if he is not the one the cousins remember, Ange wasn't born that time yet. Ange should remember HIM and not the one you think Beato spoke about.

However, there is also the possibility that the Battler Beato talked about never existed and she actually just hated it that Battler didn't remember and therefore just wanted to find an excuse. Why I think so: It is simple, it would mean that there were two childs born into the Ushirimiya family at the same time which would either mean that Rudolf got twins - but why would he deny this to his family? - or that Rudolf had an affair and there was a child born nearly at the same time or that someone else from the Ushirimiya famliy had a child at the same time BUT that again would lead to the question why deny that child and why "allow" Rudolf to "use it" as his own child - not to mention that Rudolf shouldn't know about that child.


Actually, I think the Anti-Fantasy fans can't trust the red lines either BECAUSE Anti-Fantasy means Anti-Fantasy: No magic or whatsoever. SO that means THOSE red lines were never spoken at all

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

Btw. even Anti-Mystery should doubt a few lines that Beato said. After all she lied various times already.

Actually, I think the Anti-Fantasy fans can't trust the red lines either BECAUSE Anti-Fantasy means Anti-Fantasy: No magic or whatsoever. SO that means THOSE red lines were never spoken at all

Not if, in the end, there's a logical explanation for what is actually revealing the red text over time.

[ghost_zero5]

But that again would bring up the question if the red text is correct.

Anyway, I have EDITED my post quite a bit, so it would be nice if it was re-read

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

Btw. even Anti-Mystery should doubt a few lines that Beato said. After all she lied various times already.

I believe what we're shown, not told. Beato is the narrator, after all.

I'm more Anti-Mystery because more and more of the story is taking place in magic scenes now, and I'm playing this more for the story and characters than the mystery elements anyway.

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

Actually, I think he is exactly the person that Ange remembers as even if he is not the one the cousins remember, Ange wasn't born that time yet. Ange should remember HIM and not the one you think Beato spoke about.

Not if Battler was replaced very recently.

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

However, there is also the possibility that the Battler Beato talked about never existed and she actually just hated it that Battler didn't remember and therefore just wanted to find an excuse. Why I think so: It is simple, it would mean that there were two childs born into the Ushirimiya family at the same time which would either mean that Rudolf got twins - but why would he deny this to his family? - or that Rudolf had an affair and there was a child born nearly at the same time or that someone else from the Ushirimiya famliy had a child at the same time BUT that again would lead to the question why deny that child and why "allow" Rudolf to "use it" as his own child - not to mention that Rudolf shouldn't know about that child.

What about this? The Battler we see is Kyrie's child by Rudolf. The Battler everybody else remembers is Asumu's child by Rudolf.

There's also a good chance Asumu's child grows up to be Juuza, if you look at it like that.

Originally Posted by Ssol

Not if, in the end, there's a logical explanation for what is actually revealing the red text over time.

I'd like to see this explanation.

In any case, we have to regard the red text as (subjectively) true. The entire premise of the game falls apart without it.

We just have to turn the chessboard over on some of the red statements. Or ignore those that don't relate directly to the murders, if we're going to figure this out.

[ghost_zero5]

Well the other point about the red lines is that most times they are pretty "dubious" if thought about them correctly.
After all. "Shannon died" is a statement as was already pointed out that never said WHEN that person died. It actually, doesn't even say if OUR Shannon died or if a Shannon somewhere else in the world died at sometime. Of course, it make sense to at least think that it is OUR Shannon - as it might be a bit stupid otherwise - but it still doesn't tell when.

I agree with your logical explanation regarding the red text Well, it could be some "blood" on a wall but that still doesn't explain why that one is the truth. Nor why Battler itself could use it once and various other things. Not to mention that the red text itself is just a small problem, if you would be COMPLETELY Anti-Fantasy.
Furthermore, even if you find a logical explanation for the text, it would be kinda hard to find a logicial explanation for it to be the truth.

That Battler might be Kyrie's child, I wouldn't be surprised at all BUT if BOTH had childs: Why the miscarriage part (I think the truth might be that Asumu had a miscarriage and Kyrie didn't)? Furthermore, Kyrie would definitely have used "Battler" as a point to get married to Rudolf and not let Asumu take him away.

Not to mention: You said you believe what you see and not what you read: We never saw another "Battler" or something like this

But even if so: I believe the "Battler" Ange remembers has to be "our" Battler. After all, she shouldn't have been alive probably when the "other" one died and also Battler remembers Ange. Actually, Battler also remembers his cousins. So him to swap in for someone else, doesn't make much sense as he should have met his cousins at least once before he hadn't seen them for six years. Furthermore, the "other Battler" would have had to die about six years ago because that was when he had to "commit" his sin. So he could only have died a short time later. That way "our Battler" would never have met the cousins before, not to mention that he should remember that he took another person's place.
Furthermore, from her reaction it seemed that she knew something about this. After all she knew before that Beato tried to "deny his whole existence".
After all it couldn't have been too late that the swapped because otherwise Battler would remember that part.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

*red text discussion*

"The red text being 'true'" is just something we have to accept to solve the mystery. It doesn't need to be explained. It's like "Why do I need air to breathe?"

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

Not to mention: You said you believe what you see and not what you read: We never saw another "Battler" or something like this

It's just a theory, and it would explain why Battler doesn't use Engrish anymore and why Meta-Battler is Rudolf's son but not Asumu's.

And to clarify: I meant I believe what the characters say and do but not what the omniscient narration (Beato) tells us.

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

But even if so: I believe the "Battler" Ange remembers has to be "our" Battler. After all, she shouldn't have been alive probably when the "other" one died and also Battler remembers Ange. Actually, Battler also remembers his cousins.

Does Battler remember his cousins? It wasn't in red. (Joking, joking)

As for Ange... I still think the Engrish is rather telling. Where else would someone as not-silly as Ange get it from, other than the rather silly older brother she looked up to?

[sento]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Please, explain. Also, I really don't think that the Extra TIPS can be considered as evidence outside of being useful information. They're not in the actual games and I don't think they'll be in the anime, and Ryukishi is overseeing how that goes, so...

We got to see a particular culprit style to made us believe that there is a witch.

We got that Rule Y = True Culprit. EP3 = Route without Rule Y, like Watanagashi/Meakashi.

We got to know the existence of "Beatrice" in the island as Maria's friend. Even Battler see "Beatrice" in EP2 and EP4.

We got EP3 Tea Party. Beato was human, but Lambda turned her into a temporary witch.

We got Battler sin as the origin of the tragedy.

We got Beato strange behavior to Battler's sin in EP4.

We got EP4 Tea Party. The whole "Who I am" and the final red text.

We got 07151129.

Etc...


I think that the culprit is someone Battler met 6 years ago. Then, he did something or said something and that leads to Asumu's death. This person X befriended Maria and they establish Mariage Sorciere to protect themselves against the cold reality.

And if you go beyond that, you can even say that maybe it's love related. Battler said that 6 years ago he was saying stupid things about "I will rescue you with a white horse" to all the girls he found, Shannon for example. He even is saying similar stuff right now (to Maria in EP2 Tea Party). And fits with the whole "Love" as main theme of the game, Bern and Ronove poems about infidelity, Divina Comedia motif...

But that's only wild guessing.

[ghost_zero5]

Aha. OK.
Of course, we have to except the red text as being true. I just meant it is kinda strange to accept it, if you would be completely Anti-Fantasy

Anyway: I just edited the last part a bit Actually, that part I edited is what makes me feel most awkward about him being another Battler. It just doesn't make much sense.
Why would he know his cousins - for example - and why can't he remember that he took another person's place. He would never have had attended the family meeting before. Not to mention his childhood memories of them.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Like I said above, it doesn't matter if magic is responsible in the end, since there WILL be a 'human tricks' explanation that makes equal amounts of sense.

If there will be a human trick explanation, why would you need a magic trick explanation? Let me rephrase this. Not all the events that can be explained with magic can be explained realistically, however ALL the realistic events can be explained with magic.

In Ep3 Virgilia and Battler had a very interesting discussion about that. The phlogiston in the matter that causes it to burn, or the little people in the braun tube. If you want you can say that objects fall on the heart because there are invisible fairies that get them and bring them down.

That's why once you have a realistic explanation a magic explanation becomes automatically useless. People resort to magic explanations only when they have no other choice.

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Remember how we all thought Bern WASN'T a villain?

My opinion on Bern hasn't really changed. I always thought she was a cruel witch. She said that herself, why people doubted that?

And I don't think she is a villain now. Why do you think so? Her purpose is to make Battler win. By making Battler win she will find a Kakera where he and his parents will go back to Ange. How exactly is this bad?
Her methods might be questionable, and her indifference toward human fates might give you the chills, but she's definitely on the good side of the board.

[ghost_zero5]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

My opinion on Bern hasn't really changed. I always thought she was a cruel witch. She said that herself, why people doubted that?

And I don't think she is a villain now. Why do you think so? Her purpose is to make Battler win. By making Battler win she will find a Kakera where he and his parents will go back to Ange. How exactly is this bad?
Her methods might be questionable, and her indifference toward human fates might give you the chills, but she's definitely on the good side of the board.

Actually, I think - and I guess always thought that way - she is on HER side and ONLY her side.
She would probably do nearly everything for this and if it means making people miserable.
She might not be a villain but she is definitely not good either. She uses everyone as she pleases.
But I never doubted that she wasn't a good witch. Actually, I wonder what indications did anyone have to believe that she was a good witch. She herself said that she isn't good. Not to mention she mostly helped him because that was for her interest. Maybe she also did have a bit pity to choose his side but actually, I think she just chose the opposing side - regarding Beato - and that is why she helped him.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

That's why once you have a realistic explanation a magic explanation becomes automatically useless. People resort to magic explanations only when they have no other choice.

Actually, that is wrong. As you already stated in Ep3 you can have two explanations for the same thing. The magic one DOESN'T BECOME USELESS once you have another theory. You would need a theory THAT is "PROOFED" to be true. Just another theory means that you haven't checked the contents of the "box" of "schroedinger's cat box" yet and therefore don't know which one is true.

Actually, even in physics there are currently more than one theory that might be true but it is also possible that all are true or that some are false as there exists no proof yet.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by sento

We got to see a particular killing style to made us believe that there is a witch.

But if you're using Lamba's lines as evidence for your theory... that means there are witches.

And, thus, magic.

Originally Posted by sento

I think that the culprit is someone Battler met 6 years ago. Then, he did something or said something and that leads to Asumu's death. This person X befriended Maria and they establish Mariage Sorciere to protect themselves against the cold reality.

And if you go beyond that, you can even say that maybe it's love related. Battler said that 6 years ago he was saying stupid things about "I will rescue you with a white horse" to all the girls he found, Shannon for example. He even is saying similar stuff right now (to Maria in EP2 Tea Party). And fits with the whole "Love" as main theme of the game, Bern and Ronove poems about infidelity, Divina Comedia motif...

See, I like this. It makes sense.

And the best part is it really doesn't fall into either Anti-Mystery OR Anti-Fantasy. It makes sense either way.

Battler can use this. And thus so can we, to solve the mystery.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

That's why once you have a realistic explanation a magic explanation becomes automatically useless. People resort to magic explanations only when they have no other choice.

We're already shown the magical explanation for things, every single game.

We don't need one, we already have it.

And since we've been shown that strong nonbelief in magic can actually destroy it, Battler's inevitable explanation of events will thus become true by default, likely destroying the meta-world and the evidence that it's behind everything in the first place.

Of course, the question is whether or not that's a good thing.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

My opinion on Bern hasn't really changed. I always thought she was a cruel witch. She said that herself, why people doubted that?

Because she looks exactly like Rika Furude.

The game plays off of expectations like this to provide WTF moments, like Ep3's ending.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

And I don't think she is a villain now. Why do you think so? Her purpose is to make Battler win. By making Battler win she will find a Kakera where he and his parents will go back to Ange. How exactly is this bad?
Her methods might be questionable, and her indifference toward human fates might give you the chills, but she's definitely on the good side of the board.

...She did terrible things to Ange for her own personal amusement, as detailed in one of the extra TIPS, which, although not useful enough to solve the mystery, are canon.

And she has that ridiculously evil grin at the end of Ep4's ????. Good people do not smile like that.

The question we should be asking is WHY she wants Battler to win.

I doubt it's for any positive reason.