Anime DVD/BD Sales in Japan: Discussion

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by totoum

Define "top notch",what's the threshold?

Clearly the animation powerhouse that is Angel Beats would be the gatekeeper for such a discussion!

[0utf0xZer0]

Both characters and visuals are important but I think it’s important to appreciate where they fit into what makes a show like Hyouka a hit.

Like every other fanbase, anime fans have preferences for certain creators, genres, and franchise. And certainly, like other fans, moe fans often like high profile, high production value shows. Across multiple fandoms, I have noticed these preferences are not easily swayed, and that people often preallocate their spending with these preferences in mind. All of this favours larger projects and established creators.

For many years – certainly from 2006-2009 – Kyoto was the definite favourite among moe fans. They raised the bar on production values and polish in moe anime with Air and Haruhi, then followed those shows up with a string of hit moe shows that remains pretty much unparalled. I suspect they made a lot of new moe fans in the process – Kanon 2006 wasn’t the first moe show I saw and loved, but it is the one that made me realize I was a moe fan.

After that, things got a little shakier. K-On’s second season and movie, along with Disappearance, were hits. Munto and Nichijou were not. Endless eight sold well only because it was Haruhi, and rather poorly by the standards of the franchise.

Hyouka reminds me a lot of Clannad, Haruhi, and K-On. Nichijou did not. That’s important, because I think many KyoAni fans are nostalgic for the studio’s greatest hits. Hyouka scratches that itch. That’s something no other show this season can lay claim to, and the competition isn’t offering up a lot of compelling alternatives like the Hanasaku Iroha/AnoHana/Steins;Gate trio did last spring.

Visuals are important for a number of reasons. Not only do people like eye candy, but people associate high quality visuals with high quality, high profile shows. Good looking visuals are a great way to build anticipation in advance of a show airing – when people are less likely to have allocated their spending.
(I notice Westlo raised the question of Angel Beats. It does indeed have some animation issues here and there. It also has an OP that absolutely oozes “quality production”, right where everyone is going to notice it.)

Characters? They’re important, especially since they can serve as “icons” among fans. And certainly, moe fans often take a deep interest in certain characters. But I would be careful not to underestimate the importance of other elements. People come to love characters through the shows they appear in, and many moe characters are popular because of their stories – I suspect many people like Key’s characters not because those characters are their “type”, but because their stories touch them. And I would certainly say that Madoka’s characters are as popular as they are because people loved the show and its style,

Then you have the example of Nadeko in Bakemonogatari. People like Bakemonogatari because it’s edgy, witty, and heavily stylized – so everything that most other moe shows aren’t and which Nadeko isn’t either. But many Bakemonogatari fans are general moe fans too. Nadeko appeals to the side of these fans who like more conventional moe. And she also contrasts extremely well with the general tone of the show. I suspect this made her far more noticeable in Bakemonogatari than she would have been in other shows.

[cyth]

The fact that so many shows have low production values has its basis rooted in pre-late-night-TV anime mentality, where you'd make an anime to sell to children. Whereas OVA would be to sell the animation product directly. So this line of thinking that anime have to be low quality because they're just a marketing tool to sell toys or original works is an archaic one, and I'm glad technology and other factors have moved the bar higher. Which is why it pains me whenever a show with high potential gets undeserving financial (under)investment. Some Japanese producers are blind to the fact that high production values pay off, and what they should be selling is animation first and foremost, not toys and bedsheets. That being said, I have to congratulate KyoAni for stepping it up. I can fault them all I want for adapting boring stories, but they are successful because they are forward thinking and actually give their products proper love.

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by cyth

Hyouka's outlook only strengthens my belief that you can come up with a boring show, and if it's well animated, otaku will pig that shit up, no worries.

Maybe these people preordering it are fans of the source material... (though most would be recent.. and checked it out because of the anime)

Here are the weekly manga & light novels rankings for April 30th - May 6th.

Ranks/ This week's sales by copies/ Cumulative sales/ Titles

Light Novels
*1, 21,758 *28,643 Medaka Box vol.1
*2, 20,290 121,647 Kotenbu series vol.1 Hyouka
*3, 17,759 *47,126 Touhou Symposium of Post-mysticism
*4, 16,620 208,499 Bokura ga Ita
*5, 15,527 *43,192 Himeiden
*6, 14,441 *60,376 Kotenbu series vol.2
*6, 13,988 738,215 Biblia Koshoten no Jikentecho vol.1
*7, 13,214 *21,275 Mismarka Kokoku Monogatari vol.10
*8, 12,170 514,732 Biblia Koshoten no Jikentecho vol.2
*9, 11,525 *52,723 Kotenbu series vol.3
10, 10,910 192,165 Ore no Imouto ga Konnani Kawaii Wake ga Nai vol.10
11, 10,733 *18,996 Maria-sama ga Miteru vol.39
12, 10,605 *17,217 Hayo no Tsurugi vol.6 Part 12
13, 10,573 *74,079 Kotenbu series vol.4

Most LNs that sell like this after they're animated go on to be quite sizable hits, I think Baka Test is the only exception.... DRR, Bake, Stratos, OreNo being examples... Hyouka will overtake Nyarko and E7 AO, probably be the third best selling title this season behind Fate/Zero & AKB0048. I'm a bit confused still by Kadokawa's strategy, I know comments have came out of KyoAni that they wanted to make this.. but regardless... without a new entry in the series you have to wonder why they did this.

Hyouka Novel 1 could be massive... DRR LN 1 ended up doing over 300,000 after only selling under 30k prior to the anime.... Hyouka could do something similar.. Anime on track to outsell any FMP series, LN on track to outsell any FMP LN, Kadokawa made the right call with their KyoAni 2012 series.. and if a 6th entry in this decade old series was announced it would be even more of a win for them.

[AbZeroNow]

Originally Posted by Westlo

Maybe these people preordering it are fans of the source material... (though most would be recent.. and checked it out because of the anime)



Most LNs that sell like this after they're animated go on to be quite sizable hits, I think Baka Test is the only exception.... DRR, Bake, Stratos, OreNo being examples... Hyouka will overtake Nyarko and E7 AO, probably be the third best selling title this season behind Fate/Zero & AKB0048. I'm a bit confused still by Kadokawa's strategy, I know comments have came out of KyoAni that they wanted to make this.. but regardless... without a new entry in the series you have to wonder why they did this.

Hyouka Novel 1 could be massive... DRR LN 1 ended up doing over 300,000 after only selling under 30k prior to the anime.... Hyouka could do something similar.. Anime on track to outsell any FMP series, LN on track to outsell any FMP LN, Kadokawa made the right call with their KyoAni 2012 series.. and if a 6th entry in this decade old series was announced it would be even more of a win for them.

FMP really only averaged around 6 to 7k IIRC(EDIT: FMP Fumoffu averaged 8k, I just checked), so that's the only thing that the Amazon data would seem to support right now. Now the novel series that Hyouka is based on jumping up in sales is suggestive of success, but I think it is premature to say that Hyouka will have enough momentum to overtake E7AO and then Nyarko(which has a huge stalker point lead on Hyouka and if you factor in the fujoshi, could potentially sell as much as 30k). I am willing to say that my initial prediction of Hyouka not breaking 10k is looking wrong, but I am not willing to say that it looks like it's going to do better than Clannad or Lucky Star at this point in time. (EDIT: Actually what I had meant to put there was it's not certain if it will match or exceed the KyoAni & Key anime of AIR, Kanon and the Clannad anime. Also Season 2 of Haruhi which averaged 19k)

I will add that I am still very bitter over Kadokawa apparent choice of choosing Hyouka over more Haruhi, but it would seem that Kadokawa is on the track of having another hit. Whether it breaks 10k or breaks 20k still remains to be seen.

[TJR]

Regarding old properties, Kadokawa also produced Another (first revived in the form of a manga adaptation) this year. The author immediately followed up with plans to write a spin-off and sequel.

Reaching into their back catalog (with KyoAni settling on Hyouka) could be be a strategy that Kadokawa is experimenting with. The old titles may have flown under the radar a decade ago, but the light novel market is different now.

Some Japanese producers are blind to the fact that high production values pay off, and what they should be selling is animation first and foremost, not toys and bedsheets.

I think everyone's aware that high production values help market a show. The reality is that the industry is risk averse (shows can and do bomb, no matter how pretty they may be. Money is also limited, so only select shows can be endowed with generous budgets), and a lot of their work is just promotional product for their clients/co-financiers/benefactors.

Until the anime industry can stand on its own without dependence on external partners, it's impossible to sell animation first and foremost.

[Ithekro]

I will add that I am still very bitter over Kadokawa apparent choice of choosing Hyouka over more Haruhi, but it would seem that Kadokawa is on the track of having another hit. Whether it breaks 10k or breaks 20k still remains to be seen.

I think their reasoning is to get another product line out. Haruhi has mad ethem their money already. When you sell near the million mark for LNs, who else is going to buy more even if there is more anime? With Hyouka they have generated lots of book sales, which was the point in the first place. you likely wouldn't get that many new Haruhi LN sales based on the likely material for the next anime due to most people having already bought it.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

I think their reasoning is to get another product line out. Haruhi has mad ethem their money already. When you sell near the million mark for LNs, who else is going to buy more even if there is more anime? With Hyouka they have generated lots of book sales, which was the point in the first place. you likely wouldn't get that many new Haruhi LN sales based on the likely material for the next anime due to most people having already bought it.

it is not just LN sales, BR, figures, cd, etc sales have to be taking into consideration. it is only one ep but i think Haruhi has more potential to sell more merchandise then Hyouka.

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by AbZeroNow

FMP really only averaged around 6 to 7k IIRC(EDIT: FMP Fumoffu averaged 8k, I just checked), so that's the only thing that the Amazon data would seem to support right now. Now the novel series that Hyouka is based on jumping up in sales is suggestive of success, but I think it is premature to say that Hyouka will have enough momentum to overtake E7AO and then Nyarko(which has a huge stalker point lead on Hyouka and if you factor in the fujoshi, could potentially sell as much as 30k). I am willing to say that my initial prediction of Hyouka not breaking 10k is looking wrong, but I am not willing to say that it looks like it's going to do better than Clannad or Lucky Star at this point in time. (EDIT: Actually what I had meant to put there was it's not certain if it will match or exceed the KyoAni & Key anime of AIR, Kanon and the Clannad anime. Also Season 2 of Haruhi which averaged 19k)

I will add that I am still very bitter over Kadokawa apparent choice of choosing Hyouka over more Haruhi, but it would seem that Kadokawa is on the track of having another hit. Whether it breaks 10k or breaks 20k still remains to be seen.

It will most certainly go past Eureka Seven AO, Nyarko is arguable but I feel it will in the end... it has certainly been stronger in the last two weeks and Nyarko has a 2 episode lead... and again every show that has sold light novels in the manner Hyou-ka has went on to clear 15k pretty easily... Baka Test being the sole exception.

Also how is Nyarko a fujoshi show and it has no chance of getting anywhere near 30k... it's numbers will not get to Horizon levels which is a 20k show.

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

it is not just LN sales, BR, figures, cd, etc sales have to be taking into consideration. it is only one ep but i think Haruhi has more potential to sell more merchandise then Hyouka.

Lol of course Haruhi will sell more merchandise for Kadokawa than Hyouka, no one is going to argue that point. (And the same is true for K-ON! outselling Haruhi with ease...) The point is that Haruhi is the only legit "big gun" Kadokawa have in their arsenal and considering the author is a one trick pony (look @ the reviews for his works prior to Haruhi) who isn't prolific as someone like Nisio... the smart thing to do for Kadokawa is to try and use KyoAni to build up other/new properties while they have Haruhi in the wings. But anime fans would rather Kadokawa put all their eggs in one basket....

[AbZeroNow]

Originally Posted by Westlo

It will most certainly go past Eureka Seven AO, Nyarko is arguable but I feel it will in the end... it has certainly been stronger in the last two weeks and Nyarko has a 2 episode lead... and again every show that has sold light novels in the manner Hyou-ka has went on to clear 15k pretty easily... Baka Test being the sole exception.

Also how is Nyarko a fujoshi show and it has no chance of getting anywhere near 30k... it's numbers will not get to Horizon levels which is a 20k show.



Lol of course Haruhi will sell more merchandise for Kadokawa than Hyouka, no one is going to argue that point. (And the same is true for K-ON! outselling Haruhi with ease...) The point is that Haruhi is the only legit "big gun" Kadokawa have in their arsenal and considering the author is a one trick pony (look @ the reviews for his works prior to Haruhi) who isn't prolific as someone like Nisio... the smart thing to do for Kadokawa is to try and use KyoAni to build up other/new properties while they have Haruhi in the wings. But anime fans would rather Kadokawa put all their eggs in one basket....

I was about to say that I estimate Eureka Seven AO to have at least 15k based on stalker points, and just how much some mecha shows can sell when they look like they've reached their audience. Hyouka breaking 15k would be impressive for a mystery series and would certainly mean that Kadokawa would have had one of the best selling series of the season(although I think it will be 5th as far as sales if that were to occur. Fate/Zero, AKB0048, Nyarlko and Eureka Seven: AO all outselling it). In a season as strong as this one, the gamble would still pay off for Kadokawa.

As far as Nyarlko, one of the main character is a trap, and the latest episode has some BL elements to it(one-sided though), and I just see Hastur being popular among the fujoshi(and I would not be surprised if there were tons of Hastur X Mahiro doujins in the next few months). It also appears that the series is also helping the Nyarlko light novels to sell well too.

And I wouldn't mind Kadokawa's actions so much if I had some inkling that more Haruhi anime was in the works right now. Raildex fans know that there is an Index movie and possibly a third season of Index(I can't remember right now if 3rd season of Index was announced or just a rumor) in the works although they don't know exactly when. -monogateri fans know that SHAFT is going animate the whole series. For a franchise that has sold as much as Haruhi has, and for a franchise that has enough material for 2 cours of anime to be made, the silence from Kadokawa is deafening. If Kadokawa just gave us a clear sign that we will see more Haruhi, then that will lessen the complaints that we have when we feel jerked around everytime KyoAni makes an annoucement, and it isn't Haruhi. I am hard-pressed to find another major selling anime franchise whose fans are treated worse than the fans of Haruhi.

[Katapan]

Originally Posted by AbZeroNow

As far as Nyarlko, one of the main character is a trap, and the latest episode has some BL elements to it(one-sided though), and I just see Hastur being popular among the fujoshi(and I would not be surprised if there were tons of Hastur X Mahiro doujins in the next few months).

Lolz, nah, fujoshi don't really buy traps. They're basically portrayed as girls, so it doesn't matter whether it's 'technically' BL or not. If anything, they're going to appeal to guys who'll go "who cares as long as he's cute!". Like, you know.

Spoiler:

Besides, the series has been pretty much exclusively reaching for the male otaku crowd from the beginning, I doubt many fujoshi have even given the show a try - their attention's set on other series this season! Kuroko no Basket is steadily gaining attention on Stalker after its bad start. Put the DVD and the BD together, and you get a prediction that's coming close to 6k - I suspect it's not going to move a whole lot in the next few weeks, but it might see quite a bit of a boom shortly before the release date, thanks to the introduction of certain characters. Not that I expect it to end up being a groundbreaking hit, but I reckon it's not too bad for a WSJ adaptation of that caliber, and a second season doesn't seem out of reach considering it happened for NuraMago which achieved either close or slightly lower figures.

I was about to compare it to Medaka Box, too, but that'd be pretty harsh... good try, Media Factory :<

[TJR]

Originally Posted by AbZeroNow

And I wouldn't mind Kadokawa's actions so much if I had some inkling that more Haruhi anime was in the works right now. Raildex fans know that there is an Index movie and possibly a third season of Index(I can't remember right now if 3rd season of Index was announced or just a rumor) in the works although they don't know exactly when. -monogateri fans know that SHAFT is going animate the whole series. For a franchise that has sold as much as Haruhi has, and for a franchise that has enough material for 2 cours of anime to be made, the silence from Kadokawa is deafening. If Kadokawa just gave us a clear sign that we will see more Haruhi, then that will lessen the complaints that we have when we feel jerked around everytime KyoAni makes an annoucement, and it isn't Haruhi. I am hard-pressed to find another major selling anime franchise whose fans are treated worse than the fans of Haruhi.

It's down to KyoAni's limited production. If they're busy expanding Kadokawa's portfolio of hits (top priority for any publishing company), making anime for TBS/Pony Canyon, and experimenting with some of their own initiatives (Munto, Chū-2 Byō Demo Koi ga Shitai!), there may not be much room for Haruhi. They're unable to animate Haruhi with any kind of regularity, so it's difficult for producers to make any promises......

I mean, even VisualArt's gave up on trying to secure KyoAni for Little Busters.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by TJR

It's down to KyoAni's limited production. If they're busy expanding Kadokawa's portfolio of hits (top priority for any publishing company), making anime for TBS/Pony Canyon, and experimenting with some of their own initiatives (Munto, Chū-2 Byō Demo Koi ga Shitai!), there may not be much room for Haruhi. They're unable to animate Haruhi with any kind of regularity, so it's difficult for producers to make any promises......

I mean, even VisualArt's gave up on trying to secure KyoAni for Little Busters.

and yet Shaft is able to do all of the Montagari and has time to do their own stuff.

[HosannaExcelsis]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

and yet Shaft is able to do all of the Montagari and has time to do their own stuff.

Shaft and KyoAni are polar opposites in how they handle production schedules, and consequently the consistency and quality of their production values. No studio should seek to imitate Shaft's rushed and sparsely-animated shows.

[TJR]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

and yet Shaft is able to do all of the Montagari and has time to do their own stuff.

SHAFT outsources work everywhere, and they don't impose the same limitations on the number of contracts they take on.

As with all things, you've got to take the good with the bad. KyoAni offers high standards of quality, but to maintain that quality, they restrict the number of productions.

The lesson to be learned is that if your plan is to adapt a lengthy manga/LN, and you're committed to multiple seasons released on a predictable schedule, don't hire KyoAni.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by TJR

SHAFT outsources work everywhere, and they don't impose the same limitations on the number of contracts they take on.

As with all things, you've got to take the good with the bad. KyoAni offers high standards of quality, but to maintain that quality, they restrict the number of productions.

KyoAni must be making an awful lot of cash. So why not use some of that cash to enlarge their studio (in the sense of how many animation teams they have), and their production capacity with it? That can be done without sacrificing high standards of quality.


And if given a choice between the KyoAni pros/cons (consistently high quality work, but you may never see your favorite KyoAni shows animated to completion), and the SHAFT pros/cons (occasional lateness in getting episodes out and the occasional animation issue, but generally high quality work and you will get to see your favorite SHAFT shows animated to completion), I'll gladly take the SHAFT pros/cons.

The occasional rushed/messy/late episode is a lot less irritating to me than one or more of my favorite anime shows being left in development limbo.


I'm totally with AbZeroNow on the points he's making.

[cyth]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

KyoAni must be making an awful lot of cash. So why not use some of that cash to enlarge their studio (in the sense of how many animation teams they have), and their production capacity with it? That can be done without sacrificing high standards of quality.

Expanding business isn't all that easy to do and usually involves borrowing more money. This goes for any type of business. One of our own AnimeSuki members (I can't remember who it was) once compared Sunrise to KyoAni and concluded that Sunrise, with all their production flakes, was a much more competent studio business-wise. So I wouldn't be surprised to see KyoAni fail if they expand. They probably know it too.

[relentlessflame]

Well, I think this topic probably should move to the Kyoto Animation thread, but I believe that Animation Do (Kyoto Animation subsidiary) announced they're working on their own production not too long ago. That's probably the easiest/best way to expand their capacity while preserving their overall hands-on, high-attention-to-detail approach.

In any event, I understand the disappointment, but I think it's better to not feel "entitled", and just appreciate what we have.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

In any event, I understand the disappointment, but I think it's better to not feel "entitled", and just appreciate what we have.

I strongly disagree. I think that when companies leave good, paying, loyal customers out in the cold, that fans have every right to speak out against that. And in fact I think that fans should speak out against that, because it's good for companies to know when they're pissing off some of their customers.

[0utf0xZer0]

One thing I seldom see mentioned in regards to Kyoto is that they do not "single source" their projects. Traditionally, they've tended to alternate between Pony Canyon and Kadokawa as publishers.

The Pony Canyon projects have been very consistent, switching source material only once (from Key to K-On! in 2009). Kadokawa, meanwhile, has been far less consistent in it's projects.

This year is a bit different because they're working on a Kadokawa project and an original. Perhaps Pony Canyon is waiting for more K-On! to become ready for adaptation? Or perhaps they're somehow involved in the original as well, I know that Kadokawa actually did have some involvement with Munto.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

KyoAni must be making an awful lot of cash. So why not use some of that cash to enlarge their studio (in the sense of how many animation teams they have), and their production capacity with it? That can be done without sacrificing high standards of quality.

Given the sales numbers some of KyoAni's hits have generated, I think both them and their partners probably worry about how many such hits the market can sustain at any given time.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

And if given a choice between the KyoAni pros/cons (consistently high quality work, but you may never see your favorite KyoAni shows animated to completion), and the SHAFT pros/cons (occasional lateness in getting episodes out and the occasional animation issue, but generally high quality work and you will get to see your favorite SHAFT shows animated to completion), I'll gladly take the SHAFT pros/cons.

As a general rule, the lapse between one Pony Canyon project to the next or one Kadokawa project to the next has been comparable to anyone else in the industry. So I'm inclined to see this squarely as a choice of project issue, largely on the Kadokawa side of the business.