Anime Saimoe Tournament 2009 (Japan)

[frustra]

Predictions: 4-0 (85-11)
Picks: 1-3 (47-44-5)

Same record prediction-and-pick-wise as the previous day, and I've to say it was a pretty good round for me, except for the untimely exit of Miyako, who's number four in my moe list. Still, Hina, Yuno, Maria and the Koromo are still there, with three of them in good shape to advance to the Round of 32 under the normal course of things.

One day break, here's my initial take on the notable matches for Round 2:

Spoiler for Tsukasa vs. Holo vs. Ikeda Kana:

A premiere match we have here, all have routed their first round opponents, and all fo them have garnered at least 50% of the the votes. should be a fun match, and i honestly have no idea who'd win this.

Kana has the advantage of having arguably the strongest "faction", while Tsukasa has the merit of having assist votes from Yutaka who is on the same match day.

Spoiler for Minami Kana vs. Isumi vs. Perinne:

Kana is fresh off a huge upset over erstwhile tournament favorite Mio, and Isumi followed by comfortably dispatching Kana's sister.

Perhaps, two factors militate against Kana in this match. Hayate's faction is stronger stat-wise, and revenge votes may haunt Kana. Nevertheless, this is an interesting match, since Isumi has been in this point last year, she piled 1000 votes in that year's round 1, only to fall to eventual Top 16 Noe.

I pick Isumi for a repeat performance over the Minami sisters, and to distance the deficit over Minami-ke, 3-1. Frankly, I don't see Perinne stealing the spotlight this time.

Spoiler for Kotomi vs. Momoko (Stealth Momo) vs. Megumi (Coolface):

Scratch the latter, and expect her to get the lowest vote total for this round. I don't expect split votes to hamper Momoko, but this match is really tricky. Kotomi hasn't been given an opportunity to strut her stuff last year, after being offed by a fellow Clannad character early on.

Now she really gets a heck of a test against Stealth Momo, who is coming from a convincing victory over K-On's Tsumugi. Many consider Kotomi as one of the weaker Clannad members in Saimoe, and I have to agree. On the other hand, Momo is one of the more solid ones in the Saki cast, and is another dimension in this match. To her credit, Kotomi has a same-day assist with Sanae, but I don't think it will be much of a factor like Momo's split vote.

In the end, I pick Momo to pull off another not-so-stealthy victory.

Spoiler for Koromo vs. Saku vs. Erica:

Once again, a Witch is stuck in the middle of the Saki-Hayate rivalry. As much as I love Erica, I don't think she'll stand much of a chance in this one, as the Koromo attempts to pull off another victory over a Hayate character.

Like Isumi predictably doing twice in a row against Minami-ke, I think Koromo will do it twice in a row against Hayate this time, despite the close call against Izumi. I can't really say if Izumi is stronger or weaker than Saku, but nevertheless, the outcome will still be the same. One thing's for sure though, this match will be close.

Spoiler for Yui vs. Rika vs. Shimako:

This is essentially Yui vs. Rika, an upstart rookie against the former champion. The interesting part of this match would be whether or not, some voters will take the opportunity to take out one of the main contenders for the title. They would, I think, but I think Yui is strong enough to resist such.

My prediction of Yui winning will set-up the delectable (and dreaded, for I think Hina will have her hands full against Yui) Saimoe Final-esque match against Hinagiku, who benefits from the TLR split vote, and should win that matchup without much trouble (keep in mind that she also has another thing going for her, Maria's on the same match day, and both should get massive boosts from each other).

Spoiler for Tomoyo vs. Ayumu (Hamu) vs. Lucchini:

Once again, I'll mention that a Witch is stuck on the middle of another Hayate match, this time against Clannad. And once again, I'll say, as much as I like Lucchini, her chances of winning here are faint.

So that leaves Hamu vs. Tomoyo to duke it out, and despite being a quarterfinalist last year, I feel Tomoyo has lost a bit of strength, while Hamu gets the benefit of a currently airing series. I'd blow caution to the wind and go with Hamu to win this one, although conventional logic makes Tomoyo the better choice to win.

Spoiler for Taiga vs. Ami vs. Mikuru:

I'm not convinced of Haruhi-chan's strength notwithstanding Mikuru's dispatching of Kagami. I consider other factors that elevated Mikuru to the top of that match, and not solely on her own strength.

On the other hand, the Taiga and Ami split looks to me a somewhat not too troublesome, compared to what could have been if Kagami was there.

Therefore, Mikuru winning here because of the split is not so automatic. In fact, I think Taiga will come out on top. She's stronger than most characters in the whole bracket and that accounts for something.

Sure Ami will take a lot of potential Taiga votes, but I'd take the gamble and pick the Palmtop Tiger to win here. Although that would derail a meido-mirror match, Taiga vs. Maria would be more interesting.

Spoiler for Mihoko vs. Mikoto vs. Touma:

Mihoko (Kyapten) vs. Misaka (Biribiri) vs. Touma - this is virtually a two-way match between Kyapten and Biribiri. I initially predicted before the start of Round 1 that Biribiri would win the whole block, but that was somewhat put in doubt by supervening events, such as Kyapten's dominating performance.

Kyapten has the benefit of Nodoka vote boost, and stronger stats than Biribiri. That should logically be persuasive that Kyapten will win, but my guts convince me that it is still Misaka's to win despite the odds. Nevertheless, this would be the first true test of Kyapten. should she win this, theoretically only Ritsu can stop her. I see this as the virtual block final. Now or never for these two.

In the end, I'll roll the dice, and pick Biribiri to win.

Other matches to follow as the tournament progresses along, but for now, this is my second round preview. ...

... and here's my take on the first round round-up... prelim1 and prelim2 charts updated, black and gray

[Farplaner]

Originally Posted by Zeroryoko1974

wow, 2 saki characters losing on the same day

Well, both are very minor characters too

[chaosprophet]

Results in english:

Group H03:
1st 354 votes | Isayama Yomi @ Ga-Rei -Zero-
2nd 148 votes | Sisters (exclude No.20001 and No.10032) @ Toaru Majutsu no Index
2rd 147 votes | Kurono Kurumu @ Rosario + Vampire Capu2
4th 127 votes | Liechtenstein @ Hetalia: Axis Powers

Group H06:
1st 297 votes | Ichinose Yumiko Christina @ Yoku Wakaru Gendai Mahou
2nd 214 votes | Arashiyama Sayoko @ Natsu no Arashi!
2rd 146 votes | Inoue Jun @ Saki
4th 116 votes | Angol Moa @ Keroro Gunsou

Group H09:
1st 373 votes | Zange-chan @ Kannagi
2nd 250 votes | Senoo Kaori @ Saki
2rd 107 votes | Tabitha (Charlotte Helene Orléans) @ Zero no Tsukaima ~Princess no Rondo~
4th 67 votes | Ogasawara Sachiko @ Maria-sama ga Miteru 4th Season

Group H12:
1st 280 votes | Itou Chika @ Ichigo Mashimaro Encore
2nd 215 votes | Ogata Rina @ WHITE ALBUM
2rd 141 votes | Shiranui Akeno @ Seto no Hanayome OVA
4th 92 votes | Amamiya Shiina @ Nogizaka Haruka no Himitsu


Congratz to Yumiko-chan!


Well noiw we get anothe break. Groups for Round 2 all done here.

[Ithekro]

I'd stick behind the Minami sisters and Touma.

[NissanNut]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

I'd stick behind the Minami sisters and Touma.

I would too, but a Hisa vs Hinagiku match late in the tournament would also be great.

[enxel]

Originally Posted by Farplaner

Well, both are very minor characters too

I'd say Jun is not such a minor character, at least not as much as Kaori. Anyway, it was a blow for the Saki fanbase.

Regarding the results, I got 2-2, good for Yomi and Zange, Arashi did a good job and Chika dominated all H12 so poor Akeno ;_;

With this I close the first round with a score of 52-44, a good balance I'd say, being my greatest regret Mio's defeat, but now it's time to forget about that, a lot of very exciting battles are coming so maybe I'll change my signature (I think Holo is now my top priority ).

[OverFunk]

Ah, Zange-chan~

Don't really get what Sei and Rai have against her.

So, let us get rest for a day. The true battles of Saimoe will start full force tomorrow. Maybe I will get finally a disputed 3-way match. It will be Ikedaaaaaaaaaaa and 20001 for me.

[Aya Reiko]

Spoiler for Chartage:

It seems all but inevitable to the rematch between the Godslayer and Haruhi-chan will happen in the Round 3.

B2-1 looks like it promises to be bloody, and it will be glorious!

Originally Posted by frustra

... and here's my take on the first round round-up... prelim1 and prelim2 charts updated, black and gray

Check out Group 17. That one almost got annihilated in the first round.

[Marisa Kirisame]

And finally, we're onto the next round!

Spoiler for Early predictions for block A B:

Spoiler for Day 1:

To start things off, we have a Lucky Star combo today with Tsukasa and Yutaka, since they are in the same character type, Tsukasa probably wouldn't have much to gain, Yutaka would be the one to receive. That being said, chances of Yutaka winning her group is not very high. Last Order and Chiaki are both heavy-hitting contenders. It would also be hard to determine the results through prelim-votes since Chiaki and Last Order have one vote difference while Yutaka's not far behind. So I'm just going to listen to my instincts and say that Last Order wins.
Next up we have a match of Horo, Tsukasa, and Kana. Again, all high-level contenders, but only one will win. I'm going to count Horo out first because as great as she is, her win-margin is not as impressive as the other two 600+ we saw. Between those two, I'm going to say that Tsukasa will win since 617 should be Kana's limit, while Tsukasa is still riding on the best faction besides HnG.

Spoiler for Day 2:

No combos for today, that should make predictions a little bit easier, right? First off, we have Ayame, Koumei, and Minna. They all scored about 260-280 in prelims so it's safe to say that none dominates over the others. As of right now I'm betting on Minna to win since she have the more visible fanbase but it not very certain.
The next match, though, I am certain about. Even though Yuno might give her a run for her money, Fuuko should take this one easily.

Spoiler for Day 3:

Our first match here is pretty interesting, Yuuki and Mei are both strong and the match could really go either way. But based on prelim and round 1 numbers, I'm giving this one to Yuuki.
The next match carries equal, if not more heat than the previous. On one hand, you have Kana who just slayed Mio, but on the other hand, you have Isumi who just slayed Haruka. From Prelims, it appears that Isumi should win. But Mio also would've won if we look at the prelim numbers so right now I'm choosing Isumi, but an upset could always happen.

Spoiler for Day 4:

And now we are at the least interesting day. Utau should take her match although Nunnally will try and stop her. Nagi should also have her group down though Chihiro did take down Konata, so don't underestimate her either.

[Aya Reiko]

My Round 2 Guesses

A2-1 - Yutaka has the advantage of having Tsukasa's match on the same day and that match being very competitive. But it probably won't quite be enough of a boost. Chiaki in a squeaker.
A2-2 - Minna. Cakewalk. Next.
A2-3 - This is really Mei v Tacos. Mei hails from a waning faction, but Tacos hails from one that has all the momentum. Tacos by over 100.
A2-4 - This is pretty much a "who cares?" match as whoever wins is likely to lose to the A2-3 winner. None of the characters are particularly strong at the moment. I'll go with Utau in a close one.
B2-1 - A battle royal for sure. But last year's runner-up ain't done yet. Tsukasa by under 100.
B2-2 - Fuko. Cakewalk. Next.
B2-3 - Ah, will it be revenge for Haruka or revenge for Mio? I still think K-On's popularity is overestimated here, therefore Kana in a squeaker.
B2-4 - Miki will be left in the dust here. And I doubt Chihiro will have a repeat performance here. Nagi by over 100.

[Eisdrache]

Originally Posted by Farplaner

Well, both are very minor characters too

Originally Posted by enxel

I'd say Jun is not such a minor character, at least not as much as Kaori. Anyway, it was a blow for the Saki fanbase.

/me kicks Farplaner and enxel for hating on my waifu Kaori ;_;

And yes I have a lot of waifus from Saki :333

[Ithekro]

As mentioned, I'd stick with Kana Minami. If she was used by a faction to get Mio out, I think it would be fitting to use Kana against them as well by maintaining a high Minami vote count. Seems only fair. That and she's pretty much the driving force of Minami-ke.

[Marisa Kirisame]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

As mentioned, I'd stick with Kana Minami. If she was used by a faction to get Mio out, I think it would be fitting to use Kana against them as well by maintaining a high Minami vote count. Seems only fair. That and she's pretty much the driving force of Minami-ke.

Chiaki disagrees.
But that is essentially the exact same attitude I hold for Mikuru. Since Toradora fandom used her, why not use her against them.

@Itheko
Alright, but we still need Chiaki's tsukkomi to Kana's boke though

[Ithekro]

Driving force as in, nothing particularly happens in the show unless it is somehow caused by Kana Minami. Chiaki is the more moe for sure, but without Kana, you have a lot less things going on...and no Mako-chan...who would probably get more votes than any Saki or K-On character in Saimoe if allowed entry.

[KaneDragon]

Next round is despair. Choosing between Yutaka/Last Order and Horo/Tsukasa is really tough, and I'm very worried about Saki's momentum. I'm compromising with Yutaka and Horo at the moment, but considering Horo's last vote total, I might end up switching to Tsukasa when the match comes around. It was a toss-up between Horo and Tsukasa anyway, really.

Originally Posted by Aya Reiko

B2-2 - Fuko. Cakewalk.

Then we shall dine on cake.

Originally Posted by Aya Reiko

B2-3 - Ah, will it be revenge for Haruka or revenge for Mio?

Or will it be because Isumi is just that cute?

[Eater of All]

Forgot to vote yesterday, and I just got totally saved by the break today.... So I guess tomorrow is where the tournament really picks up along with the legendary despair/nerdrage/cardboard eating so famous in the Saimoe world?
Voting record: 2-2, 1-3 (50-46)
(1-3 are hypothetical votes for last round.)

[Marisa Kirisame]

Just did a little bit more research, and I'm going to change my prediction for B2-1. Kana seems to be very, very popular in Japan, and Tsukasa's high vote total can be due to Fuuko and Mio vs Kana's matches on the same day. With the other LS characters doing badly, I'm going to say that Kana will win it over Tsukasa.


Also Frustra, you forgot to gray out Setsuna for you chart.

[Micchi]

Picks: 3-1 (55-41)
Predictions: 4-0 (78-18)

Yesterday's results mirror how the first round went for me. Most of them were pretty easy to predict, with a few notable upsets. Second round will be totally different with tough 3-way eliminations. I like all 6 chars in the first day T______T

[klare]

so Yomi won

but she has no chance in the next round after seeing Kagura got more votes than her but still beaten badly by Saki

[Zeroryoko1974]

I suspect that the Hayate faction gave Kana a lot of support in round 1 to get Mio out of the way. I see a huge drop off in votes in this round for Kana