HD wars redux

[TheFluff]

What lamer_de said. Noone broadcasts 1080p. It just doesn't exist as a broadcast format. The reasons there are 1080p TV raws anyway are a) upscales, and b) you can telecine a 1080p source and air it as 1080i, requiring IVTC to put it back to 1080p. Theoretically IVTC could be "lossless" but it very rarely is in the real world.

[hobbes_fan]

For mine certain anime genres will benefit from HD over DVD. Action, Mecha, Sci Fi are the winners in HD. OVA's and feature films like the Ghibli stuff will see great benefit too. It's the movement and detail which will benefit the most. Stuff like Lucky Star, School Rumble, drama, romance etc etc genres won't really see a benefit IMO. Personally I don't know what licensors will do. I can see them going 720p (which will upscale to 1080p quite nicely) and fitting more episodes per disc (less discs reducing overhead) or going 1080p and gouging.

In my experience a cheap good entry level LCD (1360x768, 30-32") is generally cheaper than a Plasma. which often at the budget range have lower resolution commonly 1024x720. A pretty nice 32" LCD can be found under $600-$700USD. You're looking at roughly $300USD more for a decent Plasma. Plasma has better color reproduction out of the box, but with an LCD you really need to calibrate it.

What I'd really like to see is a clear and transparent definition of HD. TV stations are using all sorts of weird resolutions and calling it HD some as low as 720x576. 1080p TV broadcast is a while away as well, from my understanding there just isn't enough bandwidth

BREAKING NEWS/Rumour

Well it looks like it really is over between HDDVD and Bluray.
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/07/p...e-hd-dvd-door/
http://www.tomshardware.com/2008/01/...ively_as_well/

I think that's all the major Hollywood studios that have moved to bluray.

REally I wonder though, where did M$, Toshiba and HDDVD stuff up? Was it not including the HDDVD drive with the 360? The tech is inferior to bluray but they had a one year head start and enjoyed a massive lead for the most part of the last year. They did get cheap players out towards the end though. but in the end I really do think PS3 won it for Sony.

[killmoms]

Paramount is not going to Blu-ray. But it does mean that they and NBC/Universal are now the only two studios supporting HD DVD. I think the writing's on the wall.

[kujoe]

It's still speculation for the most part, but this interesting piece of info is coming from the Financial Times and not just from a tech site/blog. Paramount has denied the move, but the source gives it a different, business-oriented perspective.

I have the same opinion as hobbes_fan with regard to anime and HD. While I'm fine with my anime in DVD overall, I would also like to see certain titles (OVA and theatrical releases, etc.) in an HD format.

[hobbes_fan]

Personally I think where there's smoke there's fire. Finance based papers tend to speculate correctly from my experience. That's pretty much their primary role market analysis and making predictions. Similar reports I recall were made about Warner early in 07. While I'm happy that I gambled and look like I'm riding the winning horse I do wonder what happens to HDDVD owners. I do wonder what the HDDVD camps plans are now, particularly Toshiba who from reports were backing HDDVD financially to the hilt. M$ probably can eat this loss.

[GHDpro]

Originally Posted by GHDpro

...because some shows simply need to be seen in HD (like say Gundam 00).

My wishes have been heard

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news...uniform-jacket

In a separate development, the Gunota Headlines website reports that a leaked poster has announced that Gundam 00 will also receive a Blu-ray Disc release starting this summer.

It'll probably cost a fortune to collect all of Gundam 00 on Japanese BD, so I don't know if I'll get it (actually lack of subtitles might be a bigger problem for me), but at least it'll be available (assuming the rumor is true).

[hobbes_fan]

eww it's getting out of hand
http://gizmodo.com/342988/are-black-...urning-players

but not all bad news for 360 owners
http://gamernode.com/news/5557-micro...ble/index.html

For Once I think Michael Bay is on to something here.....


Although I don't think 1080p is enough for this
http://culturegarage.com/2008/01/09/...ur-big-ass-tv/

[kujoe]

Actually, the thing about Michael Bay's so-called conspiracy... It wasn't the first time I heard of it. I forgot where I first read it, but I always thought it made sense somewhat. I always figured, that whether MS is causing confusion in the format war in favor of digital distribution or not, it isn't that hard to believe that they wouldn't want to give the living room to their competitors.

Originally Posted by hobbes_fan

but not all bad news for 360 owners
http://gamernode.com/news/5557-micro...ble/index.html

Well, they did say that they might release a BR add-on in the future, all the while stating that they have no plans for such a thing as of right now. I guess they're being careful with what they say at the moment.

On another note, I'm not sure how it impacts 360 owners considering that there aren't that many who bought the HD-DVD add-on. Still, if there's a demand for a BR on the 360, I can imagine MS making one. They have to, lest they see potential buyers get lured away by the PS3's BR functionality.

As for me, I want Seirei no Moribito in Blu-ray. And GITS SAC! Damn, I'm so glad I withheld a bit with my DVD purchases for the past few years... But oh, my wallet!


In other rumours/speculaltion/news:
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/09/s...oth-going-blu/

[hobbes_fan]

Direct d/l is the way but it's not quite here. Maybe in North America it's feasible but bear in mind the rest of the world does not have such access to high speed broadband. Sp you'd lose a fair amount of customers by going to direct d/l not to mention drm issues. On most forums I visit the console wars are indicative of the HD wars.

But you also have to keep in mind BR is Sony tech. They have to negotiate with Sony, I don't see why Sony in true corporate fashion wouldn't use this opportunity to kill the 360 by either a) not selling the tech or b) using the additional funds from the licensing agreement to drop the price of the PS3 to peanuts level and flooding the market. (PS3 price goes down and 360 goes up due to the additional cost of licensing the tech). A monopoly is never good but I just don't see why Sony would pass up the opportunity to establish market dominance ala Nintendo in the 80's.

[kujoe]

Originally Posted by hobbes_fan

Direct d/l is the way but it's not quite here. Maybe in North America it's feasible but bear in mind the rest of the world does not have such access to high speed broadband. Sp you'd lose a fair amount of customers by going to direct d/l not to mention drm issues. On most forums I visit the console wars are indicative of the HD wars.

That's true. Plus, I think average folks and enthusiasts alike still find physical media more simple. (I wish I could say the thing about current standalone BR players though.) Physical media allows the borrowing and lending aspect as well.

Originally Posted by hobbes_fan

But you also have to keep in mind BR is Sony tech. They have to negotiate with Sony, I don't see why Sony in true corporate fashion wouldn't use this opportunity to kill the 360 by either a) not selling the tech or b) using the additional funds from the licensing agreement to drop the price of the PS3 to peanuts level and flooding the market. (PS3 price goes down and 360 goes up due to the additional cost of licensing the tech). A monopoly is never good but I just don't see why Sony would pass up the opportunity to establish market dominance ala Nintendo in the 80's.

I'm not sure how this will go, if this scenario indeed comes true. But wouldn't such a negotiation go through the whole BDA first anyway? Aren't certain licensing fees involved as well? If so, I see no reason why Sony and co. would refuse, since established technology is usually shared between competing companies. For Blu-ray to truly be the winner of this "format war", it has to become a standard.

[-Mad Skillz-]

Originally Posted by hobbes_fan

In my experience a cheap good entry level LCD (1360x768, 30-32") is generally cheaper than a Plasma. which often at the budget range have lower resolution commonly 1024x720. A pretty nice 32" LCD can be found under $600-$700USD. You're looking at roughly $300USD more for a decent Plasma. Plasma has better color reproduction out of the box, but with an LCD you really need to calibrate it.

Thats because LCD technology started out in the smaller screen sizes and moved upwards. Plasma on the other hand has always been a big-screen format; you wont find many Plasma TV's under 40 inches. Due to those two reasons LCD's have always been less expensive in the 30-32" range (anything under 40 inches basically). If you were looking for a TV in that size-range, Plasma was never really an option at all. At the same time, Plasma TV's were almost always cheaper than their first generation LCD counterparts in the big-screen range (because big-screen LCD technology was relatively new and therefore more expensive). Nowadays big-screen LCD technology has gotten to the point where there is very little (if any) price difference between LCD and Plasma TV's in the big-screen range.

[hobbes_fan]

Originally Posted by kujoe

I'm not sure how this will go, if this scenario indeed comes true. But wouldn't such a negotiation go through the whole BDA first anyway? Aren't certain licensing fees involved as well? If so, I see no reason why Sony and co. would refuse, since established technology is usually shared between competing companies. For Blu-ray to truly be the winner of this "format war", it has to become a standard.

Sony has less to lose now as well don't you think? If all the content is on BD what can MS do? Sony can happily go on selling stand alone bluray devices. The only real crossover market is the HTPC market between MS and Sony, and that's still a niche market. It's not like Sony devices rely on MS o/s on the retail market. Now if MS devides to go tit for tat by not supporting BD it's not like that'll go down too well especially if the competitors offer compatibility and drivers are supplied by the manufacturers not MS. The Bda is composed of who incidentally? Hint Sony is the chief member. MS has very little bargaining power, BDA has the tech and the content. So I really wouldn't be surprised if we see a flood of cheap PS3's/bluray devices to really (which despite the reduction in price won't affect Sony's bottom line as the licensing costs of BD tech will offset the loss) in an attempt to squeeze the xbox. It's just I don't see a lot of bargaining power on MS's part.

[problemedchild]

Originally Posted by hobbes_fan

Direct d/l is the way but it's not quite here. Maybe in North America it's feasible but bear in mind the rest of the world does not have such access to high speed broadband. Sp you'd lose a fair amount of customers by going to direct d/l not to mention drm issues. On most forums I visit the console wars are indicative of the HD wars.

But you also have to keep in mind BR is Sony tech. They have to negotiate with Sony, I don't see why Sony in true corporate fashion wouldn't use this opportunity to kill the 360 by either a) not selling the tech or b) using the additional funds from the licensing agreement to drop the price of the PS3 to peanuts level and flooding the market. (PS3 price goes down and 360 goes up due to the additional cost of licensing the tech). A monopoly is never good but I just don't see why Sony would pass up the opportunity to establish market dominance ala Nintendo in the 80's.

America's infrastructure is far far away from being able to support HD quality direct downloads. Perhaps countries such as Japan or South Korea are ready, but not America.

People bought a Wii or 360 knowing perfectly well that they would not have next gen multi-media capabilities without additional add-ons.

[grey_moon]

I really wonder if the future is in optical media or is it just the death throes of old guard's profit for a physical object business model. For example not only is HDD storage getting bigger and cheaper, but it is becoming more transparent to the user. The ideas that Intel and others are kicking around about the digital home is that you just bring a unit and plug it in and it will automatically integrate to your home network and extend the storage without any effort from the user.

As networks get quicker and if the big media monsters don't cripple it in an attempt to control the market I think optical media will go the way of the dodo. Not only could media be easily transferred to the viewer (JP to USA in minutes instead of days), but virtual online storage is already being made available.

Optical media is kinda wasteful when it comes down to it. Stamp once, and then its only good for that. The re-writeable ones have not been shown to be good for long term storage (yet). The only thing it really satisfies is the need to own something. I personally love my collectors edition of 5CM.

[kujoe]

I'm sure the technology will get to that point significantly. We'll get there, but it won't be happening anytime soon. (Unless something else replaces optical media before digital downloads/distribution does.)

But the irony is, it's also about the consumers in this case. In other words, people who may or may not have the know-how of handling such tech. Not everybody is "nerdy" enough to go through all that digital networking stuff. (Mom, dad, grandpa—and the so-called "Joe sixpack" audience.) Physical media's greatest strengths have always been the idea of "plug and play" mechanics, and the ease of borrowing and lending among friends.

[grey_moon]

Originally Posted by kujoe

I'm sure the technology will get to that point significantly. We'll get there, but it won't be happening anytime soon. (Unless something else replaces the optical media before digital downloads/distribution does.)

But the irony is, it's also about the consumers in this case. In other words, people who may or may not have the know-how of handling such tech. Not everybody is "nerdy" enough to go through all that digital networking stuff. Physical media's greatest strengths have always been the idea of "plug and play" mechanics, and the ease of borrowing and lending among friends.

That is the main design drive behind all of the digital homes. It shouldn't even be tadpole nerdy, it is meant to be like going home and switching on your TV. If it misses that simplicity then the product just missed one of the main design goals.

Lets stick with storage. What is the big issues behind upgrading? For example with BR you need to make sure you have a BR player, but then how about your old DVDs? The consumer will need to make sure their player is backwards compatible too. Now in the ideal (yeah its vapour ware) digital home, your UI at that time will inform you that you are running low on space and via current trends you will out in blah days. Now without reaching too much I would guess it will offer you upgrades xyz from GoogleBay which it can automatically order for you if you so wish. These additional storage devices will hook into the network with no technical knowledge from the user and the device will automatically migrate data across to take advantage of newer technologies, or to retire devices that are coming to the end of their life.

It sounds a bit Star Trekie neh? But big corps having been pushing for this type of interoperability within the home for a quite a while now, and one of the initial design goals of the PS3 from what I gather was to act as the hub of the digital home. So really it is not that far off. The main issue I think right now is how the big media companies and the telcos are going to deal with it.

[kujoe]

Originally Posted by grey_moon

Lets stick with storage. What is the big issues behind upgrading? For example with BR you need to make sure you have a BR player, but then how about your old DVDs? The consumer will need to make sure their player is backwards compatible too. Now in the ideal (yeah its vapour ware) digital home, your UI at that time will inform you that you are running low on space and via current trends you will out in blah days. Now without reaching too much I would guess it will offer you upgrades xyz from GoogleBay which it can automatically order for you if you so wish. These additional storage devices will hook into the network with no technical knowledge from the user and the device will automatically migrate data across to take advantage of newer technologies, or to retire devices that are coming to the end of their life.

It sounds a bit Star Trekie neh?

Yes, it does sound Star Trekie—which is its main hurdle. That's the point. The technology aspect is simply am issue of time and generation.

As for old DVDs, correct me if I'm wrong but don't BD players (and HD-DVD players) play those as well? It's not going to be obsolete just because HD formats are in. In fact, I imagine DVD still selling well for years before Blu-ray (or HD-DVD, by some divine miracle) will finally be adopted en masse.

[hobbes_fan]

DVD is the standard no doubt at least for a few more years. The battle is/was for the successor so the transition can be made. VHS to DVD took years, 8 track to cassette took about a decade, tape to cd took almost another decade. But the problem here is there is/was no clear successor so consumers didn't know where to go and thus stalling the transition process.

I still think non-physical media is a bit of a tough sell. property tend to imply ownership (see how we exploit the loophole in fansubs, we couln't get away with this if it were a physical property eg land) of a physical item. I still prefer a DVD with nice art and a booklet to a Direct d/l even at twice the price and I know I'm not alone.

[grey_moon]

Originally Posted by kujoe

Yes, it does sound Star Trekie—which is its main hurdle. That's the point. The technology aspect is simply am issue of time and generation.

As for old DVDs, correct me if I'm wrong but don't BD players (and HD-DVD players) play those as well? It's not going to be obsolete just because HD formats are in. In fact, I imagine DVD still selling well for years before Blu-ray (or HD-DVD, by some divine miracle) will finally be adopted en masse.

Format adoption is very country dependant. For example Japan, HK, China very much adopt new formats as soon as they come out, but USA and UK don't and the media companies cater for that.

Time and generation isn't such a big issue right now I think. As I pointed out earlier, the whole HD-DVD and BR investment I personally think is the industry clinging on to their old marketing models. Downloading media difficult? Tell that to iTunes and all them iPod owners. Downloading not a viable business model? Tell that to Steve Jobs. Personally I think this format war is very much just chaft by companies like Sony because they missed the boat and instead of investing in a new business model, they are trying to shore up their old ones.

Have a read of the white papers in regards to Digital Homes. It is very much about internet protocols as much as it is about devices. For example earlier it was mentioned about sharing of media (legally? ). I mentioned about the need for telcos to back digital homes, the reason why is without fast pipes then optical media will win over the Digital Home. The reason? Well one of the scenarios works like this. You are sleeping, and you are woken up by your clock media player, blasting out a preset playlist from your collection. You move into your living room, the home detects that you have moved from bedroom and the music plays from your TV from the same music collection. Now if you check out all the ideas behind the gate way to the digital home, when you move to your car, the same music should play from the same collection, same with being in the office or at your friends house. Now where the music is stored is anybodies guess, but I bet Google would like to have their fingers on it. GoogleDocs anyone? BUT this all relies on the telcos investing in their infrastructure and not killing off protocols such as P2P on the request of the media industry in an attempt to control the market.

Now how far away is all this stuff. Actually a lot of the pieces are already on the market, most people just don't realise it yet. Big ones are the cell in the PS3, online storage, or SIP messengering. SIP I hear you cry, what does that have to do with this Digital Home thing? Well one of the ideas behind SIP is transparency to the user in regards to what device he is calling from. So be it your mobile phone, home phone or business phone, someone will dial a URL and the call will be automatically shunted to the most cost effective device with no geek knowledge needed. All the pieces are falling into place, you just got to spot them and I personally think the companies who take control of it will ride the wave just like Steve Jobs with iTunes. I just hope whom ever it is doesn't force iPod white down our throats *shudders*

[kujoe]

It's an old model, but it's one that everybody can easily understand. iTunes succeeds due to its ease of use, but that's still in the realm of computers in a world where most people still watch things on their tv screen. Moreover, are the consumers properly wired up for such a new way of doing things? The infrastructure simply isn't there yet. We're in the road of connecting the two, but it's still relatively new territory for a lot of people out there. So yes, generation and demographics do matter. People who grew up with the internet will undoubtedly find all of this second nature compared to older folks.

In fact, that very scenario you talk about still sounds so "techy" for the average guy. One still has to set up all of that together. It's not an easy thing compared to connecting your player to the tv and inserting the DVD. Moreover, you'd have to take into account the varied audiences. Collectors may still prefer something tangible, with special editions and limited versions. Others would rather display them on a shelf than keeping a hard drive, etc. Heck, the same can be said of gaming.

Don't get me wrong. We may be indeed heading for such a future. But that isn't now, nor will it be for quite some time.