[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Kylon99]

I mean, hey, we could just call that yet another fantasy scene and disregard it.

Although, I'm starting to think that we're dismissing too many scenes as fantasy when there weren't really any fantasy elements to it.

[Oliver]

My current guess is that Kinzo had been given three months to live back before the portrait was created. The portrait and the epitaph were the first incarnation of his last will.

He was very anxious someone would solve it the first time they all see it, in 1984, but nobody did, and eventually, he actually got better, held aloft by pure rage. For the next family conference he actually avoided everyone himself. The epitaph has not been taken seriously this time either. By the next spring, a written will existed in which the headship test for the grandchildren was described and the children were not getting a single yen.

A week or two before the conference, the man who has been given three months to live all the way back then and far exceeded this initial expectation suddenly dies - whether killed by anyone or not I have no good guesses.

For numerous reasons, keeping his death secret is a good idea. The plan is to get rid of the body after the conference, by setting up an almost completely empty island. For now, the body is crudely embalmed in the manner of medical cadavers, and kept in his own study. Nobody expects to keep it there for more than a month.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

I mean, hey, we could just call that yet another fantasy scene and disregard it.

I'm of a firm opinion that nothing can be just disregarded, or it would simply be missing, because every writer likes writing but hates work.

So if there's a fantasy scene, it always paints over something else that would be there which would be the important thing.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Nobody expects to keep it there for more than a month.

What if someone stole it?

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

I mean, hey, we could just call that yet another fantasy scene and disregard it.

Although, I'm starting to think that we're dismissing too many scenes as fantasy when there weren't really any fantasy elements to it.

There are fantasy scenes that have important information, but show things are definitely not true at the same time. Like we know that there are no marks showing that Kyrie and Rudolf were shot in the heart by the Siestas (before they were revived). At the same time though we have no reason to deny what Kyrie says to Leviathan in that scene about how she and Asumu gave birth on the same day. So Krauss's hopeless financial situation or Rudolf's love of western films for example would remain true in those scenes. In fact the financial situation would probably be the biggest reason why Krauss is shocked at Kinzo's death.

However scenes that are completely third person or first person without a detective's point of view are suspect due to Knox's 9th, and should have a unique classification of their own.

[Kylon99]

I'm not talking about the obviously fantasy scenes. 8)

I'm talking about the scenes that have no fantasy in them but form part of the background story. But yah, maybe we need to classify them. Or at least, I don't think we should be so quick to disregard them. So for example,

- Shannon and George's date
- Kinzo's death bed
- Kanon at Jessica's school
- Krauss and Nappi's honeymoon
- Beatrice 1967 and Rosa

Technically speaking, we could completely disregard all these as fantasy. In the same way that we can believe nothing if true except the red; very little of value remains. 8)

I'm just not satisfied with some people (not on here, I think) who disregard whatever they feel like as 'fantasy' if it doesn't fit with their theory.


Anyways, if we are not allowed to disregard the 'Sudden Death Kinzo' scene, doesn't this tell us that there was some chance of foul play regarding his death? I mean it's not proof of course, but it is a hint, isn't it?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

What if someone stole it?

Only two keys exist to the study, one of them owned by Kinzo himself, the other kept by Genji. In Ep5, the first key ends up with Natsuhi. This makes stealing the corpse prohibitively hard, so one would expect they feel sufficiently safe - the idea is to until while the mess of the conference blows over, and next week, say, send Gohda off to supervise Jessica on a short trip or something similar, and use the island that contains nobody but the conspiracy members for a day to safely dispose of the body in whichever manner they like. Then, when Krauss' business is back on his feet, Kinzo can be declared missing whenever they like.

That's not to say that the corpse could not have been stolen between the time Kinzo died and the moment the game started, so that what they are concealing is Kinzo being missing. It is even possible, though unlikely, that they aren't aware he's dead. But there are no hints for it that I remember, and few places around where a corpse can be safely stored to burn later without a chance of random discovery, which don't involve hauling it out in complicated ways or for long distances,so I doubt it. (Ever tried to carry 70kg that you can't stuff in a backpack for longer than 200 meters? Takes the wind right out of you, unwieldy even with two people. Very hard to do stealthily.)

During the game, the decision is actually made to burn the corpse right now, and I'm actually sure that in Ep1, Natsuhi is the one who tosses it out of the window herself. Then she comes out shiny and proud that she saved the honor of Ushiromiya family that she treasures so much, which is why it fits so well.

However, there is one opportunity that may allow someone other than Genji or Natsuhi access to the corpse to steal it, based on something that currently remains unexplained.

Namely, Nanjo numerously reports going to Kinzo's study to play chess with Kinzo.

Were Kinzo alive, the normal way to do that would be come up to the study, knock and say "Hi, Kinzo-san, open up, it's me." Kinzo would then open. Since Kinzo can't do it anymore, either Genji or Natsuhi have to open the door for Nanjo so he can sit alone and meditate on a chess puzzle for appearance's sake, or Nanjo has to be somewhere else entirely where nobody is likely to chance on him and wonder where the bloody doctor is, or, some method to let Nanjo have a key is needed, like giving him Natsuhi's or Genji's key. Getting a key from Nanjo would be considerably easier than getting it from Natsuhi or Genji, as Natsuhi is protected by her status and determination and the physical capabilities of Genji remain unknown but are believed to be rather formidable. Nanjo, instead, can simply be threatened. Which is why I wouldn't let Nanjo have a key in any circumstances if I were Natsuhi.

The point is that if Nanjo actually ends up in the study to pretend to play chess with Kinzo, regardless of how, he can then allow anyone to enter the study and make off with the body to parts unknown.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

Anyways, if we are not allowed to disregard the 'Sudden Death Kinzo' scene, doesn't this tell us that there was some chance of foul play regarding his death? I mean it's not proof of course, but it is a hint, isn't it?

If there was anything resembling a diagnosis in the text, discussion of Kinzo's death would quickly become far more solid, but here we're again faced with the problem that the author's level of competence is not known. There's not even a description of symptoms, and it could be anything, from simple atherosclerosis causing multiple myocardial infarctions to long term effects of radiation poisoning thirty years ago, Kinzo Just Dies. Even assuming that Eva had the same "incurable illness" doesn't get us anywhere because Eva's symptoms are also almost missing.

Having a solid guess at a diagnosis would allow us to look up just how easy it is to involve foul play without anyone noticing. But the statement that Kinzo died "suddenly" makes me think that just before his death he at least looked active, was not bed ridden, and could still pull at least some of the crazy stuff he's famous for, like the magical disappearing acts.

[DgBarca]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

You know, this is why I thought there was an incongruity between EP1 opening and EP5 opening. EP1 starts of with Nanjo declaring that Kinzo has X months to live... EP5 starts off with Nanjo saying "it was sudden." ... What? I thought Nanjo just said he had X months to live? Don't tell me he's lying again to cover up what must have been a 'sudden' murder? Ok, so maybe he had X months to live and suddenly had a heart attack. But people seemed genuinely surprised... if someone was declared only to have X months to live could they really be so shocked unless it was something like the day after?

So, yah, it does seem suspicious.

Oh yah, I took Happy Maria being played at Krauss' plan as an indication that 'magic' is being worked. Not intentionally, of course, but the end result being something that Beatrice found out is the source of 'magic.' ... seems somewhat plausible...

The beginning of EP1 takes place BEFORE Kinzo's death, and the beginning of EP5 DURING Kinzo's death.

Also...there is indeed something wrong with Ange's world :
.........My entire family...never came home from Rokkenjima that day...!!
Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.
Eva didn't survive, therefore, the Eva of 1998 in not Ushiromiya Eva, and is not even a Ushiromiya.

[Oliver]

...crackpot theory time. Let me run my fantasy for a moment here...

Kinzo's gold is actually a radioactive isotope of gold, produced accidentally in a breeder reactor used in Japanese nuclear research during the war. Such a research program existed in our reality, but never proceeded far enough to produce a weapons test, it was mostly directed at the prospect of nuclear energy. Kinzo's undiagnosed illness is actually the result of many years of slow acting radiation posioning.

Since the gold was radioactive, he could not possibly spend it, as it's radioactivity would cause widespread contamination and result in discovery. But he could use it as a collateral for a loan, and did.

Rokkenjima was actually the site of an underground military research laboratory, which contained the reactor -- approximately where the mansion is now, deep underground. This was the reason Kinzo has acquired the island at all, and Kuwadorian existed as the only building on top, the entrance to the underground base. The reactor is dormant and has not been in operation for the last thirty years, since Beatrice-1, the researcher involved with it and the one who had originally produced the gold from lead, died.

As many Japanese military installations of this type were indeed rigged for self-destruction, so was this one. The bomb is in fact the base's self destruct device.

Since the details of Japanese nuclear program are still government secrets, upon discovery of what really happened, the authorities, which believed the base was demolished in the last days of the war, stomped down on further disclosure and declared the event an accident.

Ok, I think that's a bit too awesome for Umineko...

P.S.: The remains of the reactor underground still being radioactive would be the reason that the site is cordoned off and off-limits a decade after the explosion.
P.P.S.: Oh, Eva in Ep4 is actually dying from the same thing Kinzo had. Radiation poisoning produced by much more frequent contact with the gold than Kinzo had.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by DgBarca

Also...there is indeed something wrong with Ange's world :
.........My entire family...never came home from Rokkenjima that day...!!
Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.
Eva didn't survive, therefore, the Eva of 1998 in not Ushiromiya Eva, and is not even a Ushiromiya.

That has problems. While Ange certainly would be trivial to fool, everyone else who knew Eva personally, like the Ushiromiya Group personnel, would not be. Also, there is no character anywhere that could possibly replace Eva -- basically, there is no female character listed at all born within a reasonable misrecognition range.

[ErenselTheJester]

Originally Posted by Oliver

...crackpot theory time. Let me run my fantasy for a moment here...

Kinzo's gold is actually a radioactive isotope of gold, produced accidentally in a breeder reactor used in Japanese nuclear research during the war. Such a research program existed in our reality, but never proceeded far enough to produce a weapons test, it was mostly directed at the prospect of nuclear energy. Kinzo's undiagnosed illness is actually the result of many years of slow acting radiation posioning.

Since the gold was radioactive, he could not possibly spend it, as it's radioactivity would cause widespread contamination and result in discovery. But he could use it as a collateral for a loan, and did.

Rokkenjima was actually the site of an underground military research laboratory, which contained the reactor -- approximately where the mansion is now, deep underground. This was the reason Kinzo has acquired the island at all, and Kuwadorian existed as the only building on top, the entrance to the underground base. The reactor is dormant and has not been in operation for the last thirty years, since Beatrice-1, the researcher involved with it and the one who had originally produced the gold from lead, died.

As many Japanese military installations of this type were indeed rigged for self-destruction, so was this one. The bomb is in fact the base's self destruct device.

Since the details of Japanese nuclear program are still government secrets, upon discovery of what really happened, the authorities, which believed the base was demolished in the last days of the war, stomped down on further disclosure and declared the event an accident.

Ok, I think that's a bit too awesome for Umineko...

P.S.: The remains of the reactor underground still being radioactive would be the reason that the site is cordoned off and off-limits a decade after the explosion.
P.P.S.: Oh, Eva in Ep4 is actually dying from the same thing Kinzo had. Radiation poisoning produced by much more frequent contact with the gold than Kinzo had.

Here's my reply to this.

So... I'm guessing Beatrice was wrong about everybody dying?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by ErenselTheJester

So... I'm guessing Beatrice was wrong about everybody dying?

It is not clear if Beatrice meant to say that everybody dies every time, and not just in Ep4, where Battler literally was the last person alive by the time the endgame event fired.

[ErenselTheJester]

I see. Well, I figured out the purpose of 07151129 in accordance to the Epitaph. If I'm right, the Epitaph should lead to two seperate answers: One to the "Golden Land" and One to another place. The Golden Land is indicated by a sign pointing towards it, the other place is locked by some device. 07151129 might be the code to this device. So in this sense, the Epitaph could be solved with two different interpretations. However, what this second interpretation leads to, I do not know since its been shown nor referenced outside of as a "small golden land."

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by ErenselTheJester

I see. Well, I figured out the purpose of 07151129 in accordance to the Epitaph. If I'm right, the Epitaph should lead to two seperate answers: One to the "Golden Land" and One to another place. The Golden Land is indicated by a sign pointing towards it, the other place is locked by some device. 07151129 might be the code to this device. So in this sense, the Epitaph could be solved with two different interpretations. However, what this second interpretation leads to, I do not know since its been shown nor referenced outside of as a "small golden land."

Er, wasn't it clear after EP4 that "small golden land" referred to the safe-deposit boxes?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by ErenselTheJester

If I'm right, the Epitaph should lead to two seperate answers: One to the "Golden Land" and One to another place. The Golden Land is indicated by a sign pointing towards it, the other place is locked by some device. 07151129 might be the code to this device. So in this sense, the Epitaph could be solved with two different interpretations. However, what this second interpretation leads to, I do not know since its been shown nor referenced outside of as a "small golden land."

Can you cite any hints that this other place exists, outside the "small golden land" itself, which could also mean the bank vault where boxes of cash are found?

[ijriims]

Let me propose this hypothesis and see if anyone could find problem with it:

Kinzo wanted to test the siblings if they can unite to find the gold, so he set up the epitaph to test if they could solve it before he died.

Shannon was playing as Beatrice for Maria and believed that if Battler has honoured his promise (stupid as it sounds, it was the pony promise) that he would come back, Maria would not be in such a bad state as she remembered Battler was such a cheerful and friendly person to everyone.

Shannon wanted Battler to return to save Maria, and she talked with Kyrie, hoping she would persuade Rudolf to call Battler back. Kyrie agreed. They thought out a plan to fake deaths such that Maria would believe that a new Rosa was resurrected, Kyrie said she would latter talk with Rosa about raising Maria (EP2).

Kinzo died a bit earlier than 4th Oct, 1986. Under his will, Kanon would be the next head of family if no one from the family could solve the epitaph by the end of the coming family member. The answer of epitaph was also revealed to them

Soon afterwards, Kanon was killed as well (in Jessica's room). Now all the succession became unclear. Genji suggested SHannon should be selected as the next head of family but Shannon didn't want it.

They latter turned the fake death play into a test on all the family members as well, since the dangerous situation would coerce the family members to cooperate and focus on solving the epitaph (thus the first letter stated that all interest would be returned if somone found out the gold). If truly no one could solve the epitaph by the end of the meeting, then Shannon would declare herself to be the successor (of course along with the news of Kinzo's death).

Because of the unexpected death of Kanon, because Shannon was not prepared to tell the truth to Jessica yet, while not wanting to disrupt the family meeting as well, she decided to impose as Kanon for the whole meeting. She had to decide whether to expose the truth after the meeting (agree to George's engagement), or keep the mirage of Kanon's existence (declined to engage with George)

The original plan was just like EP3, the six servants faked deaths in different rooms. Then people like Kinzo, Hideyoshi, Natsuhi, Kyrie, George, Jessica, Battler and Nanjo would "die" according to the epitaph. The "living" people would be Krauss, Eva, Rudolf, Rosa and Maria.


However, different circumstance came up in different episode which turned the fake play real.

In EP1, because Eva's group wanted to enact their fake death plot as well (from Ep5), so Shannon had to stop her plan or otherwise too many "dead" people would show up.

In EP2, Rosa hit Maria hard in garden and was observed by Kanon (Shannon in disguise), so she decided to put a prank on Rosa by showing up in person. She asked Kyrie to help (Kyrie reminded Rosa about the raining). She also decorated the chapel with candies such that she could cheer up Maria. The fake death plot was stopped because Shannon knew Rosa would tell everyone in the dining room that she saw Beatrice in person earlier and for sure Krauss, Eva would immediately want to find out this "Beatrice".

In EP3, the plan was done accordingly. And someone killed all the "sixes" (actually five, because Kanon had been dead already) after knowing where they were staying. Just like Erika in EP6.

In EP4, the plan was aborted because Kyrie raised the issue of Kinzo being dead very early, which contradicted what was said in witch's first letter. So Shannon had to put up an alternative plan to test the family.



The bomb, the letters-in-the-bottle, the 1 billion yen deposit? Well, obviously it was done by someone who turned the fake play into real.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

I'm not talking about the obviously fantasy scenes. 8)

I'm talking about the scenes that have no fantasy in them but form part of the background story. But yah, maybe we need to classify them. Or at least, I don't think we should be so quick to disregard them. So for example,

- Shannon and George's date
- Kinzo's death bed
- Kanon at Jessica's school
- Krauss and Nappi's honeymoon
- Beatrice 1967 and Rosa

Technically speaking, we could completely disregard all these as fantasy. In the same way that we can believe nothing if true except the red; very little of value remains. 8)

And that's clearly a problem. Here's the thing:

In WTC3, we were shown a lot of fantastic scenes. We were tasked, at first, with challenging them, culminating in Battler's realization that the garden witch battle in ep3 could simply be declared to have never happened, since there was no evidence that it ever did.

However, come Chiru, we are realizing (some of us realized this before, but consider the "average" reader) that the fantasy scenes have value. They may not be "true," but they contain some element of truth, be it characterization, exploration of motive, or metaphor. Most people realize, for instance, that Natsuhi's Beatrice is more her self-delusion of strength to maintain the Kinzo deception. In Bern's hard terms, yes, she's experiencing a fantasy. But just because it didn't really happen doesn't mean she lacks strength.

But, and I think this is the "undercurrent" of the story that Chiru is hinting at for those ahead of the curve, we must also realize that if "fantasy" scenes can be partially true, "reality" scenes can be partially false.

This endless Erika frustration is a prime example. Even if Erika is real, did she really duct tape windows shut in the pouring rain? Did she really listen to Battler sleeping all night? Did she really conduct a scientific investigation with Kinzo's lab equipment? Of course not. People may think she did, or wonder if it was possible for her to do so, but it seems abundantly silly that anyone actually would.

But she theoretically could have, and the author is telling us that, even if such things were done, certain conditions were not broken. It's no different from Beatrice claiming there were no tricky human ways out of a closed room puzzle like sliding a key under the door. The rules created by the author are nothing more than fiat established to channel the reasoning of the reader and avoid avenues of thought the author doesn't want explored. Of course, he's doing that in part so we don't think about certain ideas, but in general it produces more trust in the author, not less.

So it's actually very important that we doubt all those scenes, not because we "can't trust anything not in red," but because we acknowledge that a scene which is mostly false can be partially true, so a scene that is mostly true can also be partially false. Technically, none of the scenes surrounding Kinzo's death are contradictory. They're a bit off... like we're not seeing them in the right order, or at the right time chronologically.

I'm just not satisfied with some people (not on here, I think) who disregard whatever they feel like as 'fantasy' if it doesn't fit with their theory.

I don't think anyone (at least, anyone here) wants to disregard a scene that isn't obviously fake. Likewise, I don't think anyone wants to twist the red and use sly alternate meanings. The problem is, the game has opened this to us, so it's fair play by the author's own admission.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Can you cite any hints that this other place exists, outside the "small golden land" itself, which could also mean the bank vault where boxes of cash are found?

In a sense the location of the gold when you solve the epitaph (in most theories) is always in a different place like Taiwan or Korea, when using a map though it should help you locate it on the island.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

So it's actually very important that we doubt all those scenes, not because we "can't trust anything not in red," but because we acknowledge that a scene which is mostly false can be partially true, so a scene that is mostly true can also be partially false.

I think a better direction is to get rid of the concept of objective first-person narrative altogether.

Wait, don't throw stones yet. I'm about to describe an interpretational theory. It is very probably wrong, but it sort of makes sense and comes with a proposal of a method to make sense of the narrative anyway.

Imagine the entirety of Umineko-that-happens-on-the-island as a story, which it is. This story is structured in this manner, in layers:

(and to avoid possible confusion with a more objective layer-by-layer concept I have offered previously, I will mark them with letters this time, since these, while similar in many ways, are not the same)

• Layer A: God's Eye View. Objective events, which are impossible to perceive directly period, and definitely impossible to perceive for us. Because of the quantum. Gamemaster is aware of that layer, which allows them to answer queries for red text, but no other character can see it - everybody else only deals with things from Layer B. Witches that can venture red text but are not the Gamemaster have the capability to deduce what happened there, by the virtue of having access to a lot of Layer B, and if what they want to say is not true, the statement just cannot be completed.
• Layer B: Point Of View Pool. Subjective interpretations, which are very different in nature, style and even in perceived facts. These are structured in scenes and sentences, and are essentially memories. Every character has a Point Of View, which can be used to describe the entirety of Layer A events, even those that the character can't have access to.
• Layer C: Gamemaster's Edit Room, where a coherent narrative is assembled from scenes choice picked from Layer B interpretations, to emphasise points the Gamemaster wishes to emphasise to convey a Message From The Gamemaster using no words of their own creation.

Layer C is what Meta-Battler sees, and what is presented to us, interspersed with Meta-Battler's commentary. The rules guiding what the Gamemaster may or may not include in the collected Layer C narrative are something like this:

• Rule A: It is not required for any character to be present during a scene for that scene to be seen through their eyes. Similarly, It is not required for a scene to be presented through the eyes of a character who was present in it. Even though Meta-Battler has a piece strictly associated with him, the Piece-Battler, the narrative of a scene in which Battler is present is not necessarily from his point of view. Meta-Battler just has priority access to that point of view Piece-Battler has, (after all, it's a story about him) which is why it is not a good idea for a Gamemaster to present this scene from someone else's point of view, but it may happen in certain cases, for example, to delude Meta-Battler into thinking the Piece-Battler is still alive or sober, when he isn't. The character assigned as the detective has to have a factual point of view, which must then be shown to us if they are present to avoid breaking Rule B... they just don't have to be a piece, which allows the Meta-Erika/No-piece-Erika trick.
• Rule B: None of the Layer C narrative scenes are allowed to be an outright lie to someone else. At all. They're all true. Nevertheless, it is a very personal and subjective truth. Certain characters, like Maria, have perception wildly different from the human norm or lie to themselves or both. In particular, Maria has an animistic view of the world which assigns personalities to objects like guns and stakes -- same personalities that originally were born for her rabbits -- and sees everything as magic, filling out the detail to the point where more invented magical detail happened than any factual events, because seeing it as mundane and factual would make her very, very unhappy. Someone else may actually believe their own lies, or have a very metaphorical and poetic view of the world. Yet someone else may have a faulty memory... like Nanjo, maybe.

What hope do we have of solving anything with a mess like that? Well, here's the heuristics we can use:

• The Gamemaster wants to convey a message. As a result, they pick scenes not just for their entertainment value but to mean things, using the interpretations as a building block of something they want to say. Our approach, then, must be to ask "what did the gamemaster want to say by showing this scene from this point of view".
• Maria cannot be the only character on the island with distinct characteristics to her point of view (the magical point of view). Other characters may have other distinctly distorted points of view and we need to identify those.
• Certain characters probably have very factual points of view, and one of these would be Battler. But he's probably not the only one. These also need to be identified.
• If this interpretational theory is correct, there must be visual, auditory or textual cues suggesting where the point of view changes. We already know of the golden butterflies, and music selection, but there are probably other cues, which suggest switching to other characters.
• Even though the text is monstrously long, the actual number of characters who's points of view get any screen time has to be limited. It is basically very hard for the author to see a scene from more than two viewpoints in the first place, so the actual limit of used viewpoints is no more than five or six.

Ok, you may throw stones now.