2009-11-04, 23:38 | Link #2901 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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Also, if you're going to say "the fundamental nature of the mystery" can't be figured out, then you'll have to at least disprove my gold text theory. It doesn't explain the history behind the incidents or the details, but it does explain the Rules X Y and Z for Umineko and has a lot of support from in-game text. Sure, it's probably wrong, and there's no proof for it, but it might be right and I have a lot of evidence behind it.
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2009-11-04, 23:48 | Link #2902 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
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And even knowing Rules X, Y, and Z for Umineko - if they exist - does not really quite reach the foundation of the mystery. I want to know as much what characters in the story are feeling and what drives them as arbitrary rules governing how the story plays out. Knowing something happens each time is a good factual hint, but that alone won't get to the heart of the mystery. And I'm not sure the onus is on me to disprove a theory regardless. I'm claiming there's no way to reach the foundation of the mystery yet. I'm right if that only gets found out later. I'm wrong if someone found it out already, but we can't know I'm wrong until that comes out. I really have no way to "disprove" anybody's foundational theories. I can't "disprove" a factual theory either, even though there are some I disagree with. It's more the art of the possible for me, and I'm trying to be cautious. |
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2009-11-04, 23:58 | Link #2903 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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About the second part, your claim has the assumption that no one has reached the foundation of the truth. I'm just saying that's a very shaky assumption to make. You're basically saying "because I haven't reached the foundation of the mystery, I doubt anyone in the world has". If you don't even remember my theory which was posted on this same thread, it's a little hard to be very confident on the entire world. But you're exactly right. We'll have to wait and see.
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2009-11-05, 00:09 | Link #2904 |
Gamilas Falls
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Republic of California
Age: 46
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Which means we might have all the information we need, but we can't sift it out from all the contradictions, red herrings, and out right falsehood that the jumbled theories have laid before us all. Some theories that may be true are discounted either based on family, or shipping emotions. (meaning, one doesn't think a mother...aside from Rosa...and maybe Kyrie, would kill their own child. It is illogical even in a murder plot. Also the theory of George killing Shannon, or Jessica killing Kanon is usually shot down due to shipping. Shannon killing George after the ring scene seems just as unlikely, though Kanon killing Jessica also seems unlikely, if not for love, than for devotion to his Milady.) Such reasons may be blinding the facts...but that is why several people want motive so much. The whos and hows have been gone through...the problem is there are so many things blocking the whys that make one want to toss out suspects based on preceived facts that said suspect wouldn't kill victum X because of issue Y or Z.
Speaking of X, Y and Z....did we get all those rules? I was under the impression one was still unknown...at least to Bern.
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2009-11-05, 02:28 | Link #2905 | |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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Rule X:
I haven't seen anybody offer a suggestion about Rule X yet. Rule Y seems like it could be the Schrodinger's Cat Box effect that lets Beato show things that no one observed, or that a group of people agreed to lie about. Rule Z seems to be filling the same obscuring role in Umineko as it did in Higurashi. If we look for something fitting the theme of "two things are assumed to be linked that are actually unrelated", I've been thinking that it might have to do with the magic circles and the first twilight locked rooms, and more generally the weirdness in Episode 4. That is, a bunch of highly variable events are taking place that we're ascribing to the culprit's actions, but they're actually occurring for some other reason and the culprit is capitalizing on them. EDIT: @chronotrig: You said you had a theory involving gold text that explains all of the rules... Do you have a link to the post where you described that? |
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2009-11-05, 02:45 | Link #2906 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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I meant that figuratively, not in the sense of the actual X, Y, and Z rules from Higurashi. Basically, if true (I seriously doubt it's completely true, by the way), the gold text theory should explain the process that creates the game worlds we see.
@LyricalAura: The theory has been changing a bit thanks to that discussion with Jan-poo, so it isn't all summed up in one place at the moment. Hopefully, I'll find time to do that soon, but working in the EP5 translation is a bit more urgent now. Edit: This is sort of where it started though.
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2009-11-05, 03:04 | Link #2907 |
Komrades of Kitamura Kou
Join Date: Jul 2004
Age: 39
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Well the thing is episode 5 doesn't really explain what the Gold Truth is, only that it seems to be more powerful than the red.
My current assumption is that the gold truth is a truth that is exactly what it is; it states exactly what it says and cannot be reviewed or altered by any other interpretation because all possible sets of interpretations will eventually derive into the exact meaning of the gold truth. In other words the gold truth has one and only one interpretation, and any and all attempts to interpret will find itself back into one singular view. I have no idea how this is achieved exactly, given that the very nature of the human language is based on meanings and interpretations. That said, the Gold Truth is currently one of the cornerstones of a set of semi-unifying hypotheses of Umineko I've been formulating in my head for the last 2 months. However I need episode 6 before I can actually write it up, currently this semi-unifying hypotheses attempts to explain the following: 1. Nature of the murderer/s 2. Intention of the murderer/s 3. The connection of the murderer/s to MetaBeato 4. MetaBeato's true intention of the game 5. The central role played by the Golden Truth, and it's symbolic representation with the Golden Butterflies. 6. The Golden Truth is not something unique to Battler, but MetaBeato was also weilding it. The central theory of this hypotheses set of mine is that the Golden Butterflies may have a direct connection with the Golden Truth, in such that the Golden Butterfly may be a direct invocation of the Golden Truth within the board game. All this and more when I finally am able to link it all up. So far my theories aren't linked, I'm trying to find the string that puts them together. When I do I'll be sure to present it.
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2009-11-05, 07:51 | Link #2908 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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I have made a relationship map which I think has summarized the situation at the start of each episode.
Blue circles mean the people have mutual bonding, strong emotional attachment or trust. Green boxes mean leagues, based on mutual interest. They can break easily given enough incentives. Blue arrows mean the person have stronger emotional attachment for the receiver, but the receiver reciprocates in lesser extent. (Damn, if attachment is enabled in this forum, then I don't need to go upload this bmp myself.) |
2009-11-05, 09:44 | Link #2909 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Meh. this discussion is becoming too boring for me to follow it. Anyway I would like to examine what Ryukishi was referring to when he said he saw good theories close to the truth.
My point is, what do we know about these theories? Nothing of course, it's not like he could tell what they entailed. So maybe they aren't exactly what we think. They don't need to be necessarily theories about who is the culprit, how he did it, why, and what are the rules of this game. As far as we know, he could be talking about some things that are quite apparent to us already. For example: "Battler's sin is a broken promise" That's really not something hard to think about and there are huge hints about it. This is also something that could have been easily thought since episode4 Then let's say that Beatrice is Shannon or Jessica. Even in this case there is an huge amount of hints that point toward either of her. Now let's imagine that the truth is that Shannon is Beatrice and Battler 6 years before made a promise with her and then he forgot it. This is not so hard to imagine this. Then let's say someone post a theory about this Ryukishi sees it and think: "wow that's right!" At this point he could be interviewed and he could say that he saw people making right theories, based on good hints. Nothing wrong with this. However this means that there won't be any big surprise about Beatrice's identity. Maybe we are thinking too much. After all there's been already theories that were pretty popular and have already a confirmation. Kinzo being already dead since the start of the game, for example. That's one of the things that many people thought after episode3 and it was totally right (I guess). Another thing I personally guessed right is that Rudolf in episode1 was going to tell Battler and Kyrie that Battler is not Asumu's son. This seems pretty solid after episode5. At this point I wonder if we should really assume that the truth will be something completely unexpected or something that we have already thought. For example, Kanon is suspicious, red herring? No, he probably is quite involved.
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2009-11-05, 12:08 | Link #2910 |
Kupo
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Sleeping
Age: 32
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As for Kanon, I've always had the feeling that there's something he could be doing to resolve the murders but he's not doing it. I'm not quite convinced that he's actually killing or wanting people to die (motive at this point is my main issue) but if what I'm feeling is true that doesn't mean he's totally innocent, either.
I can't really think of what this something would be, and it's kind of a gut instinct. And obviously I'm not talking about him abandoning his furniture complex and getting with Jessica (because there's no reason that would stop the murders, even/especially if she is Beatrice, although the furniture thing is probably a factor in his passiveness) or even him telling everybody about Kinzo (although that would definitely help make matters a little less twisted). But if we're going with the two main Beatrice suspects that type of behavior makes a lot of sense. Again, just a thought and it's not really useful without knowing what that "something" is, but I'd thought I'd say it XD.
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2009-11-07, 20:20 | Link #2912 | |
fire of fires
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Vesuvius
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2009-11-07, 20:34 | Link #2913 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
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(Which means, I think I know the truth... or at least a great part of it). |
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2009-11-07, 21:58 | Link #2914 |
Author Wannabe
Join Date: Aug 2009
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Hmm...can we figure out who is the most likely to be the primary Staker/Ritual follower by looking at when these things get sloppy?
Edit: Just telling me which murders had sloppy staking etc would be great, I can try to work it out on my own. |
2009-11-07, 23:19 | Link #2915 | |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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In Episode 2, Shannon's stake was left lying under her body instead of stuck in her head. Kanon was supposedly staked, but we can't prove that since his body is missing. Nanjo and Kumasawa were supposedly killed before George's group, but staked after them. In Episode 3, the second twilight victims weren't staked, so two of the stakes are unaccounted for. The first twilight victims, George, and Nanjo had wounds that could have been caused by a stake. Mammon's stake, which was supposedly the one Battler saw buried in Kyrie's stomach, was found by the police and not considered evidence of a crime. In Episode 4, only four stakes were used. Krauss's stake was clearly stabbed into an existing wound. Shannon's and Nanjo's were left next to their heads instead of stabbed in. In Episode 5, only one stake was used. Supposedly Hideyoshi was staked in the back, but Eva was already holding the stake when Erika arrived, so we can't prove that he was actually stabbed with it. Last edited by LyricalAura; 2009-11-08 at 01:25. Reason: Added 1998 weirdness |
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2009-11-08, 10:16 | Link #2916 | |
Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: That's right... where DO I live?!
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Hello everyone, I'm up to episode 4 as of the moment and been poking around for some theories. In another board, this was being kicked around and realized it does actually fit pretty well into events so far:
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This theory has been bugging me for a while, given it actually does make sense to me given what I know (and if I know anything, its going to be wrong somewhere). Help a guy be at ease. |
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2009-11-08, 10:45 | Link #2917 |
Senior Member
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1: The series is set in 1986, so Battler was born on July 15, 1968. (OTOH, nothing says that Rosa met Beatrice in 1967.)
2: If Jessica is that badly by Battler's failure to come, why didn't she just call him? She could have gotten his phone number from Rudolf. 3: Similarly, why didn't Jessica tell Battler off when he arrived at the island? 4: How do you explain the sixth / seventh / eighth twilight in Episode 1? Jessica has a solid alibi for those. Similarly, what happened to Kumasawa & Nanjo in Episode 2? Why did the survivors accuse Kanon and not Jessica? |
2009-11-08, 11:00 | Link #2918 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2009
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I.e., in at least some scenarios, Kanon is alive and an accomplice. Most likely in episode 1 and 4. Maybe even 3 as the "ghost" that guides Jessica. It can also be reconciled with the events in episode 2. Kanon and Jessica had a "falling out" on the subject of his cooperation. In other episodes, this disagreement may happen later, which still insures his death near the end of every game. This is especially applicable in episode 3. Kanon, holding a weapon and looking into his eyes, kills Nanjo, then leads Jessica to safety. "Beatrice" then kills him in time for Evatrice's red web. Last edited by Neofio3; 2009-11-08 at 12:02. |
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2009-11-08, 12:07 | Link #2919 | |
Kupo
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Sleeping
Age: 32
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Spoiler for ep 5 (doesn't spoil any major events but still):
I won't argue a lot of those points - I just think that there are still other people who'd make a more convincing Beatrice (particularly Shannon, starting to think of Kanon as another possibility or an accomplice). There's still a chance that Jessica could be Beatrice in my thinking but it's very small. EDIT: Also, as I've pointed out before, "Beatrice" appeared to Maria during the 6/7/8 twilight in EP 1. Even if Beatrice isn't carrying out the murders, as some suspect, how Jessica be the one dressing up as Beatrice and talking to Maria about magic all the time if she's trapped up in Kinzo's study emo-ing over Kanon? Maria may be naive but she's going to notice if somebody completely different has taken the Beatrice persona.
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Last edited by ameskitty; 2009-11-08 at 12:27. |
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2009-11-08, 12:37 | Link #2920 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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In Episode 1, Maria claimed that "Beatrice" was the one who killed Genji, Nanjo, and Kumasawa. If Maria has met Beato!Jessica, why would she mistake Kanon for her?
In Episode 2, there's some argument over whether Jessica's death was confirmed in red or not. Beato does talk about when Jessica's corpse was discovered, but then she dodges the issue later and acts like Jessica being alive is a possibility in order to taunt Battler. On the other hand, Nanjo examined her body and said that she was dead, and Battler saw that there was a stake buried in her back. In Episode 3... Kanon is dead at the first twilight. No action taken by Jessica's body was related to or had any influence over Nanjo's murder. Jessica was under Battler's observation constantly, from before the second twilight until after George's death at the ninth. Therefore, she could not have influenced those murders in any way. That said, the amount of red devoted to preventing Jessica's supposed alternate personality from killing Nanjo was kind of odd. In Episode 4, Battler's phone call with Jessica occurred before the phone call with Beato. Jessica supposedly died at the end of her call, and her body was found next to a phone hanging off the hook. Jessica could not have appeared to Battler after her own death. Even if we assume that she didn't actually die at the end of the call, that would mean she changed into her Beatrice outfit, talked to Battler, changed back out of it, went back to the room with the phone, sat down next to it, and then got shot by someone else. Also, Kyrie supposedly died after Jessica did. Beato!Jessica could not have staked Kyrie after her own death. By the by, you might want to repost this theory over in the Episode 4 thread to get more feedback. This one is kind of a free-fire zone for spoilers, so most of the people who haven't read Episode 5 yet are avoiding it. |
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