Anime DVD/BD Sales in Japan: Discussion

[relentlessflame]

I will note that shows currently airing have usually been in production for over a year, and the trend had been shifting for a while now, so I'm not sure that the possible optimism is related to more-recent economic policies (though they may not have hurt).

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Actually, your average otaku will not buy DVD and BD in general. Those who buy them are hardcore ones who actually don't mind paying full price for the series they like.

"Otaku" is a term that implies "hardcore" to begin with. So an average otaku is a hardcore fan. Being willing to shell out a lot of money for anime merchandise, Blu-Rays, and DVDs, is part of what separates the otaku from your more casual anime fans.

In any event, otakus are certainly willing to pay full price for the series they like the most, but they're not all millionaires. They're not all endless money pits. Most of them have to budget their money just like 95% or more of people in general do.

So, even putting same-genre competition aside for a second, if you have a season with a fair number of big sellers, then that's going to leave crumbs for everybody else. In fact, we're seeing it right now. A fair number of Fall 2013 anime are bombing massively, and I think that part of the reason is because Non Non Biyori, Uta Prince, Monogatari, Attack on Titan, Arpeggio, and likely Infinite Stratos, are taking huge chunks of the pie. So there's less left for the other anime shows.

Also consider just how high Non Non Biyori is in the current BD ranking list for Amazon, going by what AmeNoJaku put up. It's currently beating out Attack on Titan Vol. 7! You don't suppose NNB is benefiting from a relative lack of lighthearted, moe-centrc SoL-esque shows this Fall 2013 season, do you? Virtually no same-genre competition means it gets to benefit from every DVD/Blu-Ray purchaser that likes that type of show.

And even as a big Madoka Magica fan, I'm inclined to think that its degree of sales success back in 2011 was partly since it aired during a season with few big sellers (IIRC, the only other one that started airing that season was Infinite Stratos, which is also in a different genre from PMMM). I also think there was real hunger in the anime world for a truly new magical girl series at the time (that wasn't connected to a long-runner like PreCure).

Same-genre competition (or lack thereof) does matter. So does same-season competition in general.

[Iron Maw]

Thanks for the good responses guys. I haven't realized that Japan's economy might have recovered to the point where it would have a more notable effect on the industry. Perhaps lowered cost/more efficient use of animation technology might also have something to do with it too because if you notice there is a lot more use of CG (even include a show made with nothing but it!) this season then ever before.

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

All I can do is speculate, but this and a number of other trends suggest increased confidence in the market to me. The number of two-cour series seemed to drop significantly about ~5-6 years ago when confidence in the market seemed to be shaken, but seems to have been slowly clawing back. The increase in the amount and variety of original anime, and also various kinds of experimentation in genres/styles also suggests that there is an increased willingness to try new things. Doing two-cour shows as opposed to split-cour also suggests better budgeting of time and money, although there's still a bit of a "fix it on the BDs!" approach that hasn't really seemed to dampen sales of any popular shows. All in all, I tend to think that at least some in the industry are feeling better about the state of things at the moment.

Do you think what's looking to be a "weak season" sales-wise will have might some sort regurgitated effect back towards more conservative trends like split-cours again? Making 2 cours shows even on a modest budget certainly isn't cheap, so I can't imagine all the production are happy with all the 3k-500 sellers. IS and maybe Arcs Nova is looking to be the only 10k+ sellers this season despite the increased budgets and their both only 1 cour. I would certainly like anime to return as whole back to a time where 24-26 eps were the standard and having 13 eps was a choice rather than a necessity.

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

I will note that shows currently airing have usually been in production for over a year, and the trend had been shifting for a while now, so I'm not sure that the possible optimism is related to more-recent economic policies (though they may not have hurt).

That's another good point.

[AmeNoJaku]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

"Otaku" is a term that implies "hardcore" to begin with. So an average otaku is a hardcore fan. Being willing to shell out a lot of money for anime merchandise, Blu-Rays, and DVDs, is part of what separates the otaku from your more casual anime fans.

In any event, otakus are certainly willing to pay full price for the series they like the most, but they're not all millionaires. They're not all endless money pits. Most of them have to budget their money just like 95% or more of people in general do.

Well, how hardcore a fan should be to be labelled an otaku, depends on who you are asking. Online and outside Japan we use it very differently than the Japanese do, and even then we would rarely agree with each other. In general most fans living in Japan (including me in the past) buy their favorite shows for extra material and to rewatch them with friends. You must though understand that in Japan anime are accessible legally and free on TV for their first broadcast, and there are re-runs of popular late-night anime all the time. For a small fee one can also have access to virtually unlimited series both on- and off-line. All these are not available outside Japan (at least "officially"). For these reasons and because buying an anime is quite a big cost, one must really adore it or spends all his money in such a hobby. Oh! and I am forgetting how big the second hand market is in Japan.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

So, even putting same-genre competition aside for a second, if you have a season with a fair number of big sellers, then that's going to leave crumbs for everybody else. In fact, we're seeing it right now. A fair number of Fall 2013 anime are bombing massively, and I think that part of the reason is because Non Non Biyori, Uta Prince, Monogatari, Attack on Titan, Arpeggio, and likely Infinite Stratos, are taking huge chunks of the pie. So there's less left for the other anime shows.

Also consider just how high Non Non Biyori is in the current BD ranking list for Amazon, going by what AmeNoJaku put up. It's currently beating out Attack on Titan Vol. 7! You don't suppose NNB is benefiting from a relative lack of lighthearted, moe-centrc SoL-esque shows this Fall 2013 season, do you? Virtually no same-genre competition means it gets to benefit from every DVD/Blu-Ray purchaser that likes that type of show.

To clarify, they are not my numbers, but the oricon sales sorted by eggplant here... I just used his posts to dust of my regular expressions

Now, comparing vol.7 with vol.1 is unfair, sales always drop with subsequent volumes.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

And even as a big Madoka Magica fan, I'm inclined to think that its degree of sales success back in 2011 was partly since it aired during a season with few big sellers (IIRC, the only other one that started airing that season was Infinite Stratos, which is also in a different genre from PMMM). I also think there was real hunger in the anime world for a truly new magical girl series at the time (that wasn't connected to a long-runner like PreCure).

Same-genre competition (or lack thereof) does matter. So does same-season competition in general.

For Madoka, competition can not alone explain how it is the all-time best-selling late-night anime.

Originally Posted by Iron Maw

Thanks for the good responses guys. I haven't realized that Japan's economy might have recovered to the point where it would have a more notable effect on the industry. Perhaps lowered cost/more efficient use of animation technology might also have something to do with it too because if you notice there is a lot more use of CG (even include a show made with nothing but it!) this season then ever before.

Do you think what's looking to be a "weak season" sales-wise will have might some sort regurgitated effect back towards more conservative trends like split-cours again? Making 2 cours shows even on a modest budget certainly isn't cheap, so I can't imagine all the production are happy with all the 3k-500 sellers. IS and maybe Arcs Nova is looking to be the only 10k+ sellers this season despite the increased budgets and their both only 1 cour. I would certainly like anime to return as whole back to a time where 24-26 eps were the standard and having 13 eps was a choice rather than a necessity.

About 1 vs 2 cours, I don't think that there are more anime in general, rather that more late-night anime try it now, after seeing how split cours and sequels can maintain sales and boost their sources. But generally it is much riskier than OADs and 1-2 year split sequels. Also we must factor in that sales are stadily increasing in the 2000s, as well as that costs are dropping and a former niche market has expanded considerably, though anime to me seem the less affected medium, manga LNs, toys and doujin of the former have enjoyed way more success. For example 10 years ago there was !ONE! store in Akihabara to buy cosplaying outfits, now you can get even custom made and second hand from multiple stores across the country and individuals online

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

"Otaku" is a term that implies "hardcore" to begin with. So an average otaku is a hardcore fan. Being willing to shell out a lot of money for anime merchandise, Blu-Rays, and DVDs, is part of what separates the otaku from your more casual anime fans.

I assumed you used the "western term" exactly because western audience misuse that term to no end (the same can be said for ecchi, which was weirdly toned down by western people as well).

In any event, otakus are certainly willing to pay full price for the series they like the most, but they're not all millionaires. They're not all endless money pits. Most of them have to budget their money just like 95% or more of people in general do.

I never stated they run with endless supply of money, altough a certain fanbase core can be beyond scary. Suffice to say, it is not unheard of that many of them cut their expenses elsewhere for specific stuff, be it BD or eroge.
What I did implied is that the audience itself is more driven in the interest in the BD purchase by itself, not just because they do/don't have money.

So, even putting same-genre competition aside for a second, if you have a season with a fair number of big sellers, then that's going to leave crumbs for everybody else. In fact, we're seeing it right now. A fair number of Fall 2013 anime are bombing massively, and I think that part of the reason is because Non Non Biyori, Uta Prince, Monogatari, Attack on Titan, Arpeggio, and likely Infinite Stratos, are taking huge chunks of the pie. So there's less left for the other anime shows.

Fall is not a good example of that.
Certainly, expenses are cut short, but "really because of several strong sellers"? I doubt that. In fact even with a very low number of strong sellers, you still have average sales for non block busters.

2012 is a good example of that:
-November: absolutely no anime could even reach the 5K benchmark. A very few of them barely reach the manabi line.

-December: Cowbow Bebop, Gundam Seed Remaster, Chuunibyou, Little Busters and Gintama are the only series that could reach beyond 10K.
CB and GS have an established strong fanbase, and these are BD boxes, so obviously more profitable than 2-3 ep per disc.
The other 3 have also an established fanbase: chuunibyou for KA guys and the only comedy around IRC. LB for Key fanbase, and Gintama for obvious reasons. All of these series are for different audience and most likely didn't made people buying several of them, except perhaps those who really love comedy.
Meanwhile, we had stand alone series such like Psycho Pass had a measely 1.5K sales despite it has absolutely no genre competition whatsoever.

2011 had the exact same treatment, if not worse:
November: similarly, there is no outstanding sales
December: Only Horizon could have excellent sales. Besides that, the same syndrome occurs: 2 sets of BD boxes are sold pretty well: Bakemonogatari and Toradora.
Aside of that? Nothing. It isn't like they were overwhelmed by huge hits that soak every other series sales due to genre or anything.

My conclusion? They buy the BD when the series actually interest them (not talking about the quality of the series, but the way how it could tickle their fancies), but besides that, the sales are pretty tame on this period even if the number of smashing hits are low.
The reasons outside of anime industry are numerous: end of the year, special events, comiket, video game releases etc. But as far as it goes, sales are more subject to the popularity of a given series instead of competition within the same run. Otherwise, there wouldn't be any disparity between seasons regardless of the number of blockbusters.

Also consider just how high Non Non Biyori is in the current BD ranking list for Amazon, going by what AmeNoJaku put up. It's currently beating out Attack on Titan Vol. 7! You don't suppose NNB is benefiting from a relative lack of lighthearted, moe-centrc SoL-esque shows this Fall 2013 season, do you? Virtually no same-genre competition means it gets to benefit from every DVD/Blu-Ray purchaser that likes that type of show.

Your point is a fallacious argument.
The fact a series of a certain genre might appeal a fanbase doesn't mean they will automatically like it and buy it.
That's why I made an absurd example, as by your logic, any anime of the season that has no competition for a given genre will have the lion share of it... Which is arguably not the case. I seriously question that line of thought, because that imply that a series will be sold -regardless of its plot/characters/appealing points- so long it has the limelight without any other series of the same genre.

There are several series not benefitting that treatment despite they have no competition for that period. In fact, we even had non fall season being affected by that: for instance, Tamako Market and Vividred had barely decent sales despite there was arguably no big sellers alongside except Love Live! and I REALLY doubt Love Live alone could be the reason for this. Furthermore, TM and VR didn't have any competitors in their respective genre.

So while it is obvious that a huge number of big sellers will force buyers to make choice, the opposite isn't true: we have several instances that "usual series" have the expected sale result without outstanding series alongside. Moreover, series that are representing their genre alone doesn't benefit from outstanding sales by default, to the contrary.

Conclusion: Huge sales are more related to the initial fanbase and the popularity of a given show. But the same can be said for "average" shows: sales are more subject of their fanbase than really because of the competition or the number of other big titles alongside.

I also think there was real hunger in the anime world for a truly new magical girl series at the time (that wasn't connected to a long-runner like PreCure).

Well, it doesn't seem this way, when you consider Little Witch Academia and Vividred Operation.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

Well, how hardcore a fan should be to be labelled an otaku, depends on who you are asking. Online and outside Japan we use it very differently than the Japanese do, and even then we would rarely agree with each other. In general most fans living in Japan (including me in the past) buy their favorite shows for extra material and to rewatch them with friends. You must though understand that in Japan anime are accessible legally and free on TV for their first broadcast, and there are re-runs of popular late-night anime all the time.

That's a good point. I think some westerners view anime DVD/Blu-Ray purchases as a way to "give back" to the anime industry. But for anime fans in Japan, this is just local TV for them. For them, buying an anime DVD/Blu-Ray is like somebody in America buying a DVD/Blu-Ray for a drama series that airs on HBO or one of the big American networks. It's like buying Breaking Bad or Sons of Anarchy or Game of Thrones. Nobody feels obliged to do it, because hey, we already "gave back" by paying the TV bill and/or paying for HBO. You have to truly love the series, and want its merchandise, to buy its physical media offerings.

So I don't think it's a matter of "I like it, so I should buy it". But moreso a matter of "I like it, but not quite love it, so I'm going to pass" and "I love it, I must have it!"

To clarify, they are not my numbers, but the oricon sales sorted by eggplant here... I just used his posts to dust of my regular expressions

Thanks for the clarification.

Now, comparing vol.7 with vol.1 is unfair, sales always drop with subsequent volumes.

Well, still, we're talking Attack on Titan here. Finishing ahead of any of its volumes is a huge coup for an anime show that didn't seem like that big of a deal when I first heard about it. I don't recall a lot of hype surrounding Non Non Biyori.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying "Wow, Non Non Biyori is more popular than Attack on Titan!", because no, that's probably not the case.

For Madoka, competition can not alone explain how it is the all-time best-selling late-night anime.

Agreed. I think its a factor, but there's certainly much more to it than that.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

2012 is a good example of that:
-November: absolutely no anime could even reach the 5K benchmark. A very few of them barely reach the manabi line.

-December: Cowbow Bebop, Gundam Seed Remaster, Chuunibyou, Little Busters and Gintama are the only series that could reach beyond 10K.

Only? 5 shows in one season hitting 10K is pretty good, if you ask me.

So honestly, I don't find your counterargument here very compelling. Fall 2011 could have simply been a weak season for sales, period.

The other 3 have also an established fanbase: chuunibyou for KA guys and the only comedy around IRC. LB for Key fanbase, and Gintama for obvious reasons. All of these series are for different audience and most likely didn't made people buying several of them, except perhaps those who really love comedy.
Meanwhile, we had stand alone series such like Psycho Pass had a measely 1.5K sales despite it has absolutely no genre competition whatsoever.

Wait, I recall Psycho-Pass selling well. So did Jojo's and Girls und Panzer. Didn't they start airing Fall 2012? So I'm now really wondering where you're getting your numbers from.

Your point is a fallacious argument.

No, it's not. You're reading more into my argument than what I'm actually saying.

The fact a series of a certain genre might appeal a fanbase doesn't mean they will automatically like it and buy it.

Agreed. If something sells well, then customers obviously like it, of course. At some level, in some way, they consider it "good". No question.

But my point is that less strong sales competition (especially within the same genre) gives an anime show a greater chance to do very well.

Suppose a new K-On season, and a new Love Live! season came out in Fall 2013. You don't think that would have any negative impact on Non Non Biyori's sales?

I'm inclined to think it would. Probably not totally devastating, but I could see it taking NNB's sales figures down 20% or more.

That's why I made an absurd example, as by your logic, any anime of the season that has no competition for a given genre will have the lion share of it...

As long as they appeal to the buying fans. Non Non Biyori did, to its credit.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

But for anime fans in Japan, this is just local TV for them. For them, buying an anime DVD/Blu-Ray is like somebody in America buying a DVD/Blu-Ray for a drama series that airs on HBO or one of the big American networks.

Not really given the disparities in pricing. If I were to purchase the all three boxes of the Hyouge Mono BD from Japan, it would cost about $1000 for 39 episodes. No American television series costs anything like that. The first season of Game of Thrones costs just $50. I might drop $50 on a series out of curiosity, but $1000?

Of course the primary reason for this difference is that American series have already made back their production costs during the original advertiser-supported telecasts so that revenues from disc sales, like those from syndication and foreign licensing, is all gravy. (Series on premium services like HBO are originally financed by subscriber fees.) Anime producers largely expect to cover their costs and make a profit through disc and merchandise sales, or in some cases expanded sales of the source material.

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Only? 5 shows in one season hitting 10K is pretty good, if you ask me.

So honestly, I don't find your counterargument here very compelling. Fall 2011 could have simply been a weak season for sales, period

5 Shows that address to completely different audience no less, 3 of them due to fanbases that were established for decades.
The point is: these strong sales are spread thin within the fanbase as these 5 shows do not overlap, so it isn't like you would expect them to have the majority buying more than 2-3 of them.

Wait, I recall Psycho-Pass selling well. So did Jojo's and Girls und Panzer. Didn't they start airing Fall 2012? So I'm now really wondering where you're getting your numbers from.

My apologies. Psycho Pass sold for approximately 8K (more than decent, but doesn't count on the 10k benchmark). I accidently mistook the numbers with the DVD sales. Girls und Punzer were missing in my final draft (which is actually the only best selling along with Love Live and Horizon, so make it 3 very different series).
Jojo started selling on January (I focus on the Nov/Dec period to show how peculiar the sales are).

No, it's not. You're reading more into my argument than what I'm actually saying.

Agreed. If something sells well, then customers obviously like it, of course. At some level, in some way, they consider it "good". No question.

But my point is that less strong sales competition (especially within the same genre) gives an anime show a greater chance to do very well.

Suppose a new K-On season, and a new Love Live! season came out in Fall 2013. You don't think that would have any negative impact on Non Non Biyori's sales?

As long as they appeal to the buying fans. Non Non Biyori did, to its credit.

The problem at hand is that, even without strong competition, some series are bound to struggle with the manabi line benchmark, regardless if they are the representative show of a given genre. Which brings out the follow question: is it really because there is other series "stealing" the show potential fanbase, or because the series itself lacks the appeal to solidfy a strong fanbase (fancy stuff, original material etc)?

Likewise, you have to put a certain factor such like 2 cour series having a much different treatment compared to 1 cour.

That's why I believe your comparison with Shingeki is fallacious because you attribute the sales (and thus success of a series) single handedly due to the lack of competition in the genre, by using a completely unrelated series to prove the scale of the sales (and thus "popularity") despite both series do not address the same audience, nor the same buyers.
Shingeki is a complete different beast running out of steam because we are already at the seventh volume, for a 2 cour series. It is a big given it would be outsold by the first BD volume of a decently popular series, regardless if there is a genre competition or not.

That doesn't have anything to do with my point. Once a hunger is filled, it's gone, Klash. Madoka Magica filled a hunger back in 2011, I think. That specific hunger might not come back for years.

The initial argument was that you attributed Prisma Illya success to its mahou shoujo genre that is "demanded", yet now you say the hunger is filled with Madoka Magica.
However 2 series before Illiya without any competition bombed. That's why I attributed Illy's decent sales due to the manga and TMverse being thrown in there. A lot of series get a major boost from the original source material fanbase, and TM fanbase is quite major in Japan.

[Iron Maw]

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

About 1 vs 2 cours, I don't think that there are more anime in general, rather that more late-night anime try it now, after seeing how split cours and sequels can maintain sales and boost their sources. But generally it is much riskier than OADs and 1-2 year split sequels. Also we must factor in that sales are stadily increasing in the 2000s, as well as that costs are dropping and a former niche market has expanded considerably, though anime to me seem the less affected medium, manga LNs, toys and doujin of the former have enjoyed way more success. For example 10 years ago there was !ONE! store in Akihabara to buy cosplaying outfits, now you can get even custom made and second hand from multiple stores across the country and individuals online

I see, given this it doesn't sound like the market as fickle as I thought. Well as long as the overall expansion continues then lackluster sales in one or two major anime seasons (Spring & Fall) for 2 cour shows is an acceptable loss I suppose.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

5 Shows that address to completely different audience no less, 3 of them due to fanbases that were established for decades.
The point is: these strong sales are spread thin within the fanbase as these 5 shows do not overlap, so it isn't like you would expect them to have the majority buying more than 2-3 of them.

... I find it very odd that you're the one who's arguing (or at least implying) that same-genre competition isn't any factor at all, and yet here you are arguing that genre lines are so very pronounced that there's almost no buyer overlap whatsoever between these anime shows with "completely different" audiences.

You really think that the anime audience is that severely fragmented on genre lines? Personally, I'm highly skeptical of your position here. It does not at all reflect anime fans I know here on Anime Suki, and I find it hard to believe that Japanese anime fans would be that radically different than us when it comes to being divided on genre lines.

But, if you're actually right about this, then doesn't that support my idea that same-genre competition is a factor in sales success or lack thereof?

I mean, at some point, beggars can't be choosers. If only a show or two in your genre is airing per season (and you don't buy anything outside your genre), then you may well buy all of them (using "you" in a general sense here, of course, not you personally). But once competition goes up - Once you have 3 or more shows in the same genre airing at the same time to choose from - then maybe those genre fans get a bit pickier.

It makes perfect sense to me.

And if genre lines aren't that pronounced, then it makes perfect sense to me that after people have bought the 4 or so big sellers of the season, some of them don't want to spend any more money on anime physical media for that season.

My apologies. Psycho Pass sold for approximately 8K (more than decent, but doesn't count on the 10k benchmark). I accidently mistook the numbers with the DVD sales. Girls und Punzer were missing in my final draft (which is actually the only best selling along with Love Live and Horizon, so make it 3 very different series).
Jojo started selling on January (I focus on the Nov/Dec period to show how peculiar the sales are).

Thank you for admitting this. Apology accepted. However, these facts clearly do weaken part of your argument.

The problem at hand is that, even without strong competition, some series are bound to struggle with the manabi line benchmark, regardless if they are the representative show of a given genre.

Sure. Some shows just don't catch on period. I'm not denying that.

Which brings out the follow question: is it really because there is other series "stealing" the show potential fanbase, or because the series itself lacks the appeal to solidfy a strong fanbase (fancy stuff, original material etc)?

In some cases it's the former. In some cases it's the latter. That's my position.

You seem to think it's strictly the latter. I think that's an overly simplistic position that you're taking here. Competition does matter.

That's why I believe your comparison with Shingeki is fallacious because you attribute the sales (and thus success of a series) single handedly due to the lack of competition in the genre,

No, I'm not arguing any such thing. Please stop using these ridiculous strawmen arguments.

There's a huge difference between saying "This is a factor in sales success (or lack thereof)" and saying "This is the sole factor in sales success (or lack thereof)". I have been very clear that I am not saying the latter of these two, only the former. So please address arguments I'm actually making, not strawmen arguments.

The initial argument was that you attributed Prisma Illya success to its mahou shoujo genre that is "demanded", yet now you say the hunger is filled with Madoka Magica.
However 2 series before Illiya without any competition bombed.

VRO did Ok. Little Witch Academia was just an one-off OVA (at the time), which is an unique beast unto itself. So your argument here doesn't seem all that compelling to me.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

No, I'm not arguing any such thing. Please stop using these ridiculous strawmen arguments.

There's a huge difference between saying "This is a factor in sales success (or lack thereof)" and saying "This is the sole factor in sales success (or lack thereof)". I have been very clear that I am not saying the latter of these two, only the former. So please address arguments I'm actually making, not strawmen arguments.

I think your arguments are not quite as clear as you think they are. I had to go back two pages to see how all this started to figure out what the heck you guys were going on about, and it seems to me that you're really mostly arguing semantics.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

I disagree. Shows in the same genre going head-to-head can easily hurt the sales for one or more of those shows. I think that's why ef and True Tears had poor/middling sales - Going head-to-head with Clannad hurt them badly, I think.

Your theory that in-genre competition "hurt them badly" may not be implying it's "the sole factor", but it sure makes it sound significant and more than just "a factor". Klashikari's counter-argument was that other examples suggest that it's not as big of a factor as you think. So it seems to me that you guys are only arguing about matters of degrees.


Further, you guys were arguing about the importance of brand loyalty vs. genre loyalty:

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Prisma Illya didn't sell anywhere near as much as Fate/Zero though. So I'm inclined to think the people who bought the show are actual magical girl genre fans.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

The argument I'm making here makes plenty of sense. You seem to be arguing that Type Moon fans will buy anything Type Moon, and that's why Primsa Illya sold well. Well, if so, there shouldn't be a huge sales discrepancy between different Type Moon anime properties.

These sales discrepancies suggest to me that brand name is not the main factor here in sales success for either of these Type Moon titles.

But indeed, as was pointed out, there have been other shows in essentially the same genre, in times without "genre competition" that did not succeed. Having an established brand with established characters and an established fanbase certainly helps shore up a foundation that a random no-name brand/franchise would not have. That doesn't mean that people will buy a show only for the brand... but affinity to a brand can certainly be a big help even when crossing genres. So again, here too, it's all a matter of degrees. Both genre and brand matter to some extent.



The fact of the whole thing is that it's complicated. Everything is a factor: timing, competition, branding, genre trends, staff, actors, online memes/buzz, even real world events. With shows being in production for so long before airing, the producers and financiers have to do a lot of speculating. And every time someone thinks they've figured out "the formula", some show will come out of nowhere to surprise people by being either a huge hit or a giant flop, and the theories are all re-jostled again. All we can say for sure is that shows sell because some people want to buy it. Whether it's due to predictable logic (genre preferences, brand loyalty) or just being "caught up in the moment" and following the latest craze, "market taste" is fairly ephemeral. Keep in mind that new people are entering and leaving the market all the time too, so tastes naturally shift and evolve over time along with the factors that affect purchasing. While many things can be factors, trying to place too much weight on any one factor tends to be contradicted by other examples, and the exceptions could end up being more lengthy/complex than the rules. So yeah: it's complicated.

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

... I find it very odd that you're the one who's arguing (or at least implying) that same-genre competition isn't any factor at all, and yet here you are arguing that genre lines are so very pronounced that there's almost no buyer overlap whatsoever between these anime shows with "completely different" audiences.

But, if you're actually right about this, then doesn't that support my idea that same-genre competition is a factor in sales success or lack thereof?

Several big sales don't imply that everyone are split choosing them due to the genre or so, considering how it goes.
Also, I called "fanbase" and not genre here, specifically because you have fans of the franchise buying it, which is quite different from "fan of the genre".

For instance, a Gundam fan is de facto a mecha fan (in its broad sense), but does that mean a mecha fan is a fan of gundam?

That's why I insisted on the fanbase and not the genre in the context of these 5 big sellers: you have fanbases of specific franchise that has no direct notion to the genre itself.
Sure, I'm not implying these fans aren't buying because of the genre itself, but established series is a complete different matter (the prime example of that would be Kagikko and Gundam fans).

I mean, at some point, beggars can't be choosers. If only a show or two in your genre is airing per season (and you don't buy anything outside your genre), then you may well buy all of them (using "you" in a general sense here, of course, not you personally). But once competition goes up - Once you have 3 or more shows in the same genre airing at the same time to choose from - then maybe those genre fans get a bit pickier.

I won't pretend they won't be pickier, since it is obviously a huge matter of guesswork, subjective appreciation of each series, and a matter of budget which can't be correlated with exact science.

What I disagree with your reasoning is that fans alike aren't going to forsake a series of the genre they like because there is another one alongside. On the contrary, the same can be said for those who like a specific genre and the fact there are few of them doesn't mean they will buy even a single of them.

That's why I don't agree with your reasoning that "big sellers will affect other series!" or "competition will favor a series over the rest of the same genre": simply because there are way more factors that appeal the audience, which can be illustrated with seasons that are lacking of big sellers (2011 particularly).

Thank you for admitting this. Apology accepted. However, these facts clearly do weaken part of your argument.

Fall 2011 season still converge to the reasoning I have: even with 3 big sellers, you don't exactly have a "balanced" sales curve for every other series. A lot of them are stuck below 5-3K regardless of the genre.

No, I'm not arguing any such thing. Please stop using these ridiculous strawmen arguments.

There's a huge difference between saying "This is a factor in sales success (or lack thereof)" and saying "This is the sole factor in sales success (or lack thereof)". I have been very clear that I am not saying the latter of these two, only the former. So please address arguments I'm actually making, not strawmen arguments.

I surely used an hyperbole here, but from your example between NNB and SnK, I digress. Whereas you said it is a factor (and not "the" factor as I was mistaken), I believe you concluded with this example that the benefit from lack of competition (and thus rallying every purchasers that like this genre) is present.

That's why I don't agree with your comparison to validate the assumption that "one genre series beating a big seller close-to-last volume is a definite factor of no competition benefit!" because the circumstances of such comparison doesn't work.

VRO did Ok. Little Witch Academia was just an one-off OVA (at the time), which is an unique beast unto itself. So your argument here doesn't seem all that compelling to me.

VRO only fetched around 4-5K per volume. It is indeed decent, but with approximately the same circumstances, Illya, despite having a competitor, got 7-8K sales per volume.
Of course, the stories are arguably different, and that's why I was bringing the initial point before: despite having a "less favorable" environment, Illya did sell more.
One might say that it is the difference in term of story quality, but I'm not convinced when there is an obvious difference in term of pre-order for the very first volume of each series.
And considering how "loud" the TM fanbase is at work over there (and even growing in the west), thats the natural factor I consider at work here.

I make such conjuncture because of various series having a giant push due to the original source material (such as SAO, Oreimo, and most likely in the future, Mahouka). That factor is not the "ultimate" one, but it is definitely something major because it is a plain hype generator for many series, and without the actual presence of that factor, a lot of series would have been seen with a very different light imho.
In general sense, it is a much muddier environment that you might think about "genre" alone: momentum for a series announcement and broadcasting in conjunction with goods/original material progression are key in the equation, and whereas competition is by no means an empty threat, series success are by far dependant of their own assets in general, which lead to sales.
I could even be more specific with limited edition with pre-order bonus and the likes, but it would be even more of a mess than it already is, so I will stop at that. In fact, I will simply stop adressing my points because I'm starting to repeat them, so no meaning to go further from my part.

[TJR]

Originally Posted by Iron Maw

Something I have been wondering for awhile now: Does anyone have any insight as into why there is so many 2 cour shows this season? Because it's been quite a reversal past season when shows where getting shorter and budgets more conservative.

The industry is cyclical, so the push for more two-cour shows has been in swing for some time now. The companies are tightly related, so you'll find that producers make the same types of decisions almost simultaneously.

I'm a little worried that the BD market and modern promotion strategies (coupled with a string of early successes with anime original shows) have made companies too confident. Current trends (for instance, I'm sure we've all noticed the emergence of several new studios to fill production demand) partly mirror what happened during the early to mid 2000s when DVD was seen as a major key to expansion.

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

The increase in the amount and variety of original anime, and also various kinds of experimentation in genres/styles also suggests that there is an increased willingness to try new things.

Yes, and there's also a realization that they can't rely on adaptations forever. Around five years ago, there were concerns that production companies had drilled through source material too quickly, placing pressure on manga/light novel publishers to supply content faster.

Additionally, manga publishers are exploring cheaper ways (i.e. five minute episodes) to advertise their series. They realize that with online streaming and social media, full-length anime may not be necessary.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

What I disagree with your reasoning is that fans alike aren't going to forsake a series of the genre they like because there is another one alongside.

When people shop for clothes, do they buy everything they come across that they like, or do they make choices based on what they like the most out of what is affordable to them? If it's the latter, are they "forsaking" the clothes that they liked but didn't buy?

When I was a comic book fan who bought comics regularly, I'd sometimes have to make hard choices over which ones to buy. I couldn't always afford to buy every comic that looked good or interesting to me, so I had to pick what I liked the most and not get the other comics (even if they looked appealing to me). This isn't an act of "forsaking", as you overly dramatically put it. This is just having to make tough purchasing choices based on limited discretionary spending.

The vast majority of otakus are not exempt from that. The more shows they run into that they want to buy, the more likely they are to face a situation where they'll have to say "I like this show, but it's not one of my favorites, and since I'm buying these 5 anime shows already, I can't really afford to pay for this show as well".

If a particular season has a lot of big sellers, then it likely means that many DVD/Blu-Ray buying otakus are getting close to being "maxed out". While source material fans will obviously contribute to DVD/Blu-Ray sales of the anime adaptation, they're usually not the only people buying those anime shows. So it's not like there's no competition whatsoever between the big-selling anime shows (or between the big-selling anime shows and all the other anime shows airing at the same time). Otakus in general may well consider buying them, even if they weren't a fan of the source material. I mean, why do you think a lot of anime shows result in added sales for the source material? Clearly, the anime is attracting new fans; new fans out of the general otaku population.

Fall 2011 season still converge to the reasoning I have:

One example alone obviously doesn't make a pattern. You were arguing that Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 seasons showed a pattern of sales behavior that suggests something particular about this specific time of year. I pointed out where your Fall 2012 data was very off, leaving you with only Fall 2011. That alone is not enough to adequately support your reasoning.

That's why I don't agree with your reasoning that "big sellers will affect other series!"

I'm amazed that you don't agree with that. I've seen it in every entertainment medium I've followed, and I've followed a fair number. You want to see a JRPG have disappointing sales? The most surefire way to achieve that is to launch it at/around the same time as a new Final Fantasy game is being launched.

Gamers are no less hardcore than otakus are, but they sometimes have to make hard purchasing choices. I don't see any reason why otakus would be as drastically different as you seem to think they would be.

Honestly, I'm truly amazed that you refuse to consider competition even a factor in sales success or lack thereof.

[finalfury]

The anime releasing more 2 cour anime makes me happy.

So the reasons possibly include: better understanding of the market, increased confidence, desire to avoid stagnation, better marketing tactics, better usage of the budget, streaming being a profitable avenue to gain market-share for anime, source material that is easily adaptable to anime (heard a rumor that some author's structure their books now so that it would be easily adaptable), and the improving economy. Happy Dance. XD

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

If a particular season has a lot of big sellers, then it likely means that many DVD/Blu-Ray buying otakus are getting close to being "maxed out". While source material fans will obviously contribute to DVD/Blu-Ray sales of the anime adaptation, they're usually not the only people buying those anime shows. So it's not like there's no competition whatsoever between the big-selling anime shows (or between the big-selling anime shows and all the other anime shows airing at the same time). Otakus in general may well consider buying them, even if they weren't a fan of the source material. I mean, why do you think a lot of anime shows result in added sales for the source material? Clearly, the anime is attracting new fans; new fans out of the general otaku population.

What we have no easy way of knowing is just how much overlap there is among purchasers of even the the "top-selling" shows. Or in other words, how much of the market is "deep" as opposed to "wide".

I've been collecting Japanese anime DVDs/BDs for many years now, and my own purchase rate has been about 3-4 shows a season (which, due to overlap, means I'm usually collecting about 8 series at time, not counting OVAs). The other collectors I know have their own rates that vary widely anywhere from maybe 1-2 series a year, to 5-8+ series per season (which, with overlap, is a huge investment in anime BDs each month). Some collectors are really focused nearly-exclusively on anime BDs, while others are really more primarily focused on other sorts of merchandise, like figurines, or eroge, or live concert BDs (etc.). (Personally, I'm actually more of a hybrid collector, which is the worst kind... )

So when a popular series happens you have some combination of:

- people who are regular collectors of anime BDs broadly, and are buying this show as well
- people who are collectors of other things usually, but are collecting the anime BDs for this show in particular
- people who usually aren't collectors at all, but still decide to buy this one show

And of course you have your people who are regular collectors and not buying whatever the popular thing is, but whatever it is they like instead. (I personally didn't buy the vast majority of the top-selling anime BDs in the past year. There's not that much correlation between my purchases and broader market popularity.)

I have no idea how to determine what portion of the market falls into any of those categories for any given show, but that's actually quite important to prove or disprove your theory about the impact of a confluence of hits on other shows' sales performance.

Consider an example like Fate/Zero, which was released exclusively in two BD box-sets rather than as monthly singles. If you consider the budgeting process of your average hardcore anime BD collector, it's based on collecting many shows and spreading the load for any given show over many months, so asking them to (twice) drop ~$350 in a giant chunk is off-pattern and out of cycle. It may not be something they can "just do" as easily. But when you consider that the Fate universe may have a lot of very hardcore game fans who aren't necessarily regular anime BD collectors, this sort of "one-off" release may make more sense, since it's easier to get the uninitiated to rally around two major purchases than to train them to keep up with a 9-12 volume marathon of monthly releases. Fate/Zero was a very successful anime, but we can't know how many of those sales went to people who are already regular/hardcore anime BD collectors (and thus would be most affected by clustering of popular shows), and how many to those who aren't and bought it as a one-off simply because it's Fate/Zero.


So basically, your theory may be true, but we have no way of knowing the extent. What we can see rather clearly from the numbers is that it isn't simply a question of there being a fixed pot of revenue that gets distributed amongst all the available shows. When there's a confluence of popular shows, additional revenue comes in from outside the pool that doesn't necessarily get distributed to other shows subsequently. This is arguably due in part to the Japanese "media mix" strategy which tries to bring people into the fold from as many different possible vectors/angles as possible, serving as a bridge for people who wouldn't otherwise be collecting anime BDs.

[Houreki]

how noucome did it in sells? cuz' I want a second season and I did't see it in the other sales thread

[ultimatemegax]

Originally Posted by Houreki

how noucome did it in sells? cuz' I want a second season and I did't see it in the other sales thread

Noucome's first volume came out last week. Oricon, the reporting company who gives sales estimates that get reported here and elsewhere, is on a break for the New Years holidays in Japan. Expect the numbers to come out relatively soon as they release those estimates within the next few days.

[Houreki]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

Noucome's first volume came out last week. Oricon, the reporting company who gives sales estimates that get reported here and elsewhere, is on a break for the New Years holidays in Japan. Expect the numbers to come out relatively soon as they release those estimates within the next few days.

really? because I've read from a lot of people that noucome did it bad at sells, but if you said it, maybe there's still a chance. Thanks

[Miraluka]

*10,0**　アルペジオ(arpeggio)
*7,0** Non non biyori
*5,6**　弱虫ペダル(Yowamushi pedal)


They're doing well at sales and that makes me happy, specially for the latter.