Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (March 11, 2011)

[RRW]

Spoiler for QA:

Q) How scared should people in Japan be about the nuclear situation?

A) Not a great deal – the 20-year total of deaths from Chernobyl (from the UN 20-year report) suggests that the radiation related deaths are of the order of a few thousand at most; of the thyroid cancers, mostly in the young 99 per cent were treated & cured (note all the data in the report are strongly disputed by environmental and progessive groups who claim that WHO & IAEA are under the influence of the nuclear industrial complex).

In Japan so far it is spent fuel rods that were removed from the core in November, so iodine-131 (which has an eight-day half life) is not a major risk. The most serious fission product that will be released will be caesium-137 with a 30-year half life.

The possibility of food (rice, milk, etc.) being contaminated because of contaminated fields is real, but public health measures (testing and so on) should mean such produce should not reach the public. Local contamination (houses, towns) will clear at rates dependent on the weather (dissolved in rain, etc.). Local weather also disperses & dilutes the plume (and I assume the Japan Met Bureau can model this very well).

Q) How scared should people outside Japan be?

A) South of the equator – not at all. Air transfer across the equator at sub-stratospheric heights is very slow. Northern hemisphere – the contamination will travel west to east with the normal weather pattern cycles of highs & lows, (it will not reach the jet stream) which means dilution and days for transfer. Levels in North America & Europe will be much less than in areas adjacent to Chernobyl.

Q) Do you think this disaster should be thought off as a once-off occurrence or a chance to rethink nuclear?

A) It depends on your views on risk assessment and risk-benefit analysis. This quake (and tsunami) was possibly the worst ever in Japan – a one in 1000 year or more event. Now we might re-design to cover such an event, but that it could be covered I have no doubt. This was not an immediately human-induced failure like Chernobyl, but design elements that were insufficient to accommodate the extreme natural events.

Q) Are there many misunderstandings in the public about the situation and if so, what’s the biggest?

A) Some misunderstandings about radiation risk are long standing, some currently due to misinformation (see USA Surgeon-General urging people to take iodine supplements, so there is reportedly not an iodine-tablet to be found in some states.[The point here is that iodine to be effective must be taken within a small window of time before exposure to iodine-131. It does not offer general “protection against radiation (see stories of Chinese buying up iodised salt!) and as I suggested above iodine-131 may be only a small component of the contamination mix.

Use of words like “radiation leaking from ...” – radioactive material (contamination) may “leak” – that distinction and the ones about doses and dose rates, scales of comparison and so on are unfortunate, and linked to the long-established public fears of radiation (compared with other harmful materials and exposures).

Q) How do you think this will influence the nuclear power debate in Australia?

A) It will be seen by the opponents of nuclear power as another powerful (pun!) argument against an Australian power program and against uranium exports (racism has shown up in statements from extreme elements such as “if this happens in Japan how much worse it will be in India”). I would prefer a situation in which the public could properly understand all sorts of risks but that is an idealist position.

Q) Reports from Japan have been conflicting – do you think this is intentional obfuscation or a result of the changing situation on the ground?

Probably a mixture of both (here in Oz we know that we can have conflicting reports on matters from leading members of governments of whatever political type!).

Analysis of the “obfuscation index” needs an expert on Japanese politics, the relationship between Tokyo Electric & the regulatory body, the smooth moves of civil servants from regulator to corporate positions, etc. On the ground measurements are not easy, interpretation probably even more difficult (not just total quantities of fall-out per hectare but the detailed nuclide (isotopic) composition etc.)

Q) What is the best case scenario? What is the worst case scenario?

Best case: Spent fuel rods recovered with water quickly, good meteorological conditions limit immediate spread, and people can deal with the tsunami/quake after-effects. Sadly the world has largely forgotten the thousands dead and selfishly, if understandably, concentrated on “how will I be affected”.

Worst case: Spent fuel rods cannot be water covered; spent fuel from the other reactors become involved, increasing the size of fallout contamination. A nuclear fission driven excursion like Chernobyl is not probable (different design, etc.). Real bad case – long-term psychological damage to the locals, bad enough following Chernobyl, but now with tsunami added. Perhaps the different social traditions between Ukraine & Japan will lead to a different community outcome. I hope so.

by the way what is the situation so far?

[Vexx]

I just figured out where half this utter garbage train of horrendous soundbites is coming from. "Inside Edition" came on and there it was... complete *fucking* hyperbole of disaster, nuclear winds, meltdown, and omfg get iodide~!!!!

Inside *fucking* Edition (a televised piece of crap ala National Enquirer celebrity bullshit news) is pretending to cover the Japan crisis.... and then there was Exxtra (Exxxtra, XXTra, who the fuck cares) - more unmitigated bullshit.

Apparently this is what the unwashed and soon to be potassium iodide addled masses watch for news. I'm not fond of cursing but both my wife and I were alternately cursing or dumbfounded at it.

[Tsuyoshi]

Originally Posted by Vexx

I just figured out where half this utter garbage train of horrendous soundbites is coming from. "Inside Edition" came on and there it was... complete *fucking* hyperbole of disaster, nuclear winds, meltdown, and omfg get iodide~!!!!

Inside *fucking* Edition (a televised piece of crap ala National Enquirer celebrity bullshit news) is pretending to cover the Japan crisis.... and then there was Exxtra (Exxxtra, XXTra, who the fuck cares) - more unmitigated bullshit.

Apparently this is what the unwashed and soon to be potassium iodide addled masses watch for news. I'm not fond of cursing but both my wife and I were alternately cursing or dumbfounded at it.

Despite knowing why they overexaggerate information (getting more viewers, capturing the attention of the audience more easily), I still wonder why news outlets simply don't want to just give people real info, truth and facts that educate them to what's really happening.

On that note, I do hope that everyone in Japan is alright and there is hope for those people who are not in safe haven like many of us that life will return to _relative_ normality soon.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by Tsuyoshi

Despite knowing why they overexaggerate information (getting more viewers, capturing the attention of the audience more easily), I still wonder why news outlets simply don't want to just give people real info, truth and facts that educate them to what's really happening.

On that note, I do hope that everyone in Japan is alright and there is hope for those people who are not in safe haven like many of us that life will return to _relative_ normality soon.

Sometimes I think of that line from a certain movie when I look at these pathetic failures of journalism: "You can't *handle* the truth!!" (but directed at the creators of this bullshit)

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by Tsuyoshi

Despite knowing why they overexaggerate information (getting more viewers, capturing the attention of the audience more easily), I still wonder why news outlets simply don't want to just give people real info, truth and facts that educate them to what's really happening.

That's simple if they start educating the public, then they starts to become wise and after that they won't be able to sell sensation.
They want the public to be in the dark so they are easier to manipulate.
(101 marketing of the dark side. )

Oh by the way I was considering why Gregory Jaczko, chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, made that comment which actually fueled the hysteria. Since the US is crunching down on spending, is it possible that he saw an opportunity to maintain and even enhance their budget from the government?

Hmmm, really sounds like pure bureaucracy to me.

[Quarkboy]

I've decided to take the black and cynical point of view that ignorance of the masses just means more opportunity for the informed (myself) to profit off of them.

So yes, that's right, iodide away. Just make sure I finish buying some stock first...

[Tsuyoshi]

Originally Posted by Tri-ring

That's simple if they start educating the public, then they starts to become wise and after that they won't be able to sell sensation.
They want the public to be in the dark so they are easier to manipulate.
(101 marketing of the dark side. )

Indeed, hence I said I already know the answer. It's all about control, how you can convince a population of something in order to rally them under a certain belief. Call it a more sophisticated version of propaganda. It just amazes me every time I read about this because it's been going on for millennia (I could extend the argument to other things but they're on a topic of their own).

Originally Posted by Tri-ring

Oh by the way I was considering why Gregory Jaczko, chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, made that comment which actually fueled the hysteria. Since the US is crunching down on spending, is it possible that he saw an opportunity to maintain and even enhance their budget from the government?

Hmmm, really sounds like pure bureaucracy to me.

Maybe, maybe not. Over time, I've been thinking more and more about where the government spending is actually directed and to what end. I can't really say too much because I'm not actively following their politics atm, but I have to agree that it sounds like bureaucracy.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

It's not a competition! The last thing we would want to do, as people offering help, is to overload a recipient country that is already inundated by failing infrastructure and a whole lot of other logistical problems.

Basically, at this moment, the Singapore Red Cross has already officially raised S$803,982 in donations, not including S$500,000 from the Singapore government and a further S$220,000 just donated this afternoon by a group of Chinese businessmen.

Even so, supplies that the Red Cross has prepared since early in the week are still sitting in Singapore, because Japan is not ready to receive them at this moment. You don't want to send the supplies only to have them wasting away at the airport, with no one available to deliver them.

The Red Cross is currently waiting for the green light from its counterpart in Japan and from the Japanese government. Once it does, the supplies will be flown over immediately.

The five-man team the Singapore Civil Defence Force sent? Same thing happened. They were never deployed. You need to consider the fact that some 200,000 JSDF soldiers are already out in force. The rescuers are dealing with cold conditions, damaged roads and shortage of petrol.

The last thing Japan needs right now is to also worry about the safety of international rescuers.

So, please understand the situation. It's not that the authorities here are not willing to help (donate to the Singapore Red Cross if you can), but rather that extremely strained logistics make such efforts very difficult right now.

I'm not competing.....it's just sitting on your ass stuck in camp doing meaningless crap while you could be helping out feels terrible you know...

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Tri-ring

Oh by the way I was considering why Gregory Jaczko, chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, made that comment which actually fueled the hysteria. Since the US is crunching down on spending, is it possible that he saw an opportunity to maintain and even enhance their budget from the government?

That is a dirty way of getting things his way, but albeit for a greater good. One shouldn't scrimp on safety.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

I'm not expecting significantly higher radiation levels in Tokyo atm and hopefully never. Distances from Ground Zero of 20 km to, say, 100 km are the interesting zone. Especially regions that lay in wind direction when it briefly turned land inwards.

Isn't there a USN carrier and her escorts right on the disaster doorstep? You'd think they'd be doing some independent monitoring on their own no?

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

Isn't there a USN carrier and her escorts right on the disaster doorstep? You'd think they'd be doing some independent monitoring on their own no?

They are as well as a global hawk flying over the site.

[bayoab]

Real news:
Japan's nuke safety agency raised accident seriousness level to 5 from 4

Originally Posted by Tsuyoshi

Despite knowing why they overexaggerate information (getting more viewers, capturing the attention of the audience more easily), I still wonder why news outlets simply don't want to just give people real info, truth and facts that educate them to what's really happening.

Plain factual news tends to be dry and uninteresting to a western audience. Here's today's events as of earlier: http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/79294.html

Here's a short summary:

What happened today? Firetrucks sprayed water on reactor 1, which may or may not have increased the water level inside, and tried to complete the new power cables, which may restore the cooling systems.

Now, how boring does that read compared to:

Workers race against the clock to prevent disaster. To prevent the reactor from meltdown, firetrucks dumped water on the first reactor, but they were unable to determine if they were able to make any progress. A last ditch effort of connecting a new power cable to restore power to the reactors continues. Even if they succeed, there is no guarantee it will fix everything.

Originally Posted by Quarkboy

I've decided to take the black and cynical point of view that ignorance of the masses just means more opportunity for the informed (myself) to profit off of them.

So yes, that's right, iodide away. Just make sure I finish buying some stock first...

So who has to clean up this mess in the end so I can invest in them before they get the billion dollar contract?

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by bayoab

Plain factual news tends to be dry and uninteresting to a western audience.

Only because we have such short attention spans. Look what television has done to us.

[Tri-ring]

Now I know why Gregory Jaczko is hyping up steam.

Another nightmare scenario - contained in a hypothetical projection in a 2000 study by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission - also seemed unlikely to come to pass. The study predicted that there could be up to 26,000 cancer deaths over a radius of 500 miles (807 kilometers) in the event of a fire in the zirconium cladding of fuel rods in a spent fuel pool.

There are concerns about the state of the fuel rods in one of the Fukushima plant's pools after a U.S. official said all the water had drained out. But the study's findings were assumed a situation much worse than in Japan, involving more fuel, a bigger reactor and no prior evacuation.

[Tsuyoshi]

Originally Posted by bayoab

Plain factual news tends to be dry and uninteresting to a western audience. Here's today's events as of earlier: http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/79294.html

Here's a short summary:

What happened today? Firetrucks sprayed water on reactor 1, which may or may not have increased the water level inside, and tried to complete the new power cables, which may restore the cooling systems.

Now, how boring does that read compared to:

Workers race against the clock to prevent disaster. To prevent the reactor from meltdown, firetrucks dumped water on the first reactor, but they were unable to determine if they were able to make any progress. A last ditch effort of connecting a new power cable to restore power to the reactors continues. Even if they succeed, there is no guarantee it will fix everything.

Well, I wouldn't read a newspaper to read a short story like your second example. I much prefer the first example because it's more direct and to the point. I find a piece of news interesting because of its content, not its presentation. It amazes my 99% of the west doesn't agree

At any rate, if the intention of the article is to say what is happening at Fukushima now, I'd appreciate something like this:

"Firetrucks were sent to spray water at Fukushima Dai-ichi in an attempt to increase water levels while operators worked to install power cables and restore power to the back-up generator. The effectiveness of the operation is yet to be determined."

Simple wording, to the point and pretty much summarizes what is happening. Words like "melt-down" or "disaster" is best left for another column that would be dealing with the topic of what may happen in different scenarios rather than use them to overdramatize a summary of what's happening. That's just the way I see it tho.

[WanderingKnight]

Cocaine is bad for you! Bad bad bad bad bad!

At least he is much more reasonable than Angry French Guy.

[Slice of Life]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

Isn't there a USN carrier and her escorts right on the disaster doorstep? You'd think they'd be doing some independent monitoring on their own no?

I heard it withdrew because of the radiation. In any case, I'm sure the US military has independent means to get the data they want and presses hard on the Japanese government to get access to their data.

Alas, my point wasn't that Mr. Obama isn't properly informed but that the public isn't properly informed.

You're attacking straw men.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

I heard it withdrew because of the radiation. In any case, I'm sure the US military has independent means to get the data they want and presses hard on the Japanese government to get access to their data.

Alas, my point wasn't that Mr. Obama isn't properly informed but that the public isn't properly informed.

You're attacking straw men.

No, but seeing the US forces' reaction would give you ideas.

Seriously, an exclusion zone has been set up. By rights, everything in it should have pulled out. If it were a catastrophic incident like say, Mayak, then you'd know it. International forces would be evacuating and readings outside the zone would be far higher than currently.

The radiation as of now is nothing compared to the quake or tsunami.

[Slice of Life]

200,000 people have been evacuated. It's fair to call an incident that triggers something like that a catastrophy. Especially considering that the country's resources are already stressed beyond their limits.

Comparisons with the tsunami, Chernobyl* or the zombie apocalypse are moot. The question is, how many people will die of cancer due to radiation poising in the next decades. 10, 100, 1000, 10000? The answer is we don't know because we lack the data. Highly irradiated spots have been discovered already beyond the evacuation zone so simply claiming that nothing will happen has no basis.

Too many know-it-alls shouting the loudest. A usual day on the internet.


* On a side note, it irks me to see the same lobbies that have been downplaying Chernobyl ever since it happened are suddenly painting a much darker picture of that event just because it makes Fukushima look so much brighter.

[Qikz]

Anyone know why they took the TBS stream down?