North Korea Crisis

[Sumeragi]

Obviously you keep missing the most important part: Little if any of those aid ever goes to the people.

[Ridwan]

You did said "no aid", so I guess they just got confused since people in this forum always finds it difficult establishing a common context.

[Urzu 7]

Originally Posted by Ridwan

...finds it difficult establishing a common context.

That probably happens a lot with people, generally speaking.

[Ridwan]

Not that a lot. We just need mutual confidence that the other party is committed and capable of making sense.

[Tom Bombadil]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

On the other hand, the Chinese sorta already paid that off by keeping North Korea from being conquered by the UN forces. And it was over a half century ago. and pretty soon there aren't going to be any Chinese politicians alive today who even remember the revolution and the Korean war.

Younger Chinese political officials have probably been asking what they intrinsically gain from North Korea as an ally.


And as Tom Bombadil said...considering the scale of the Chinese Civil War, while North Korean contributions were helpful, they probably weren't decisive in the way the Soviet aid was.

Thank you!

Well, the way I see it, it is like someone lent 20 bucks to Steve Jobs during his college days (which was paid back soon) and then claims that he had a fundamental role in the creation of the Apple franchise.

[Urzu 7]

I heard that one thing China isn't looking forward to when N. Korea collapses is what could be millions of people making an exodus into China after that collapse. Not all of them will just integrate with South Korea. Many of those close to the Chinese border are bound to enter China.

China might have been aiding N. Korea, in part, because they don't want all those immigrants pouring into their country.

[SoldierOfDarkness]

Originally Posted by Urzu 7

I heard that one thing China isn't looking forward to when N. Korea collapses is what could be millions of people making an exodus into China after that collapse. Not all of them will just integrate with South Korea. Many of those close to the Chinese border are bound to enter China.

China might have been aiding N. Korea, in part, because they don't want all those immigrants pouring into their country.

Exactly.

China doesn't want the responsibility of looking after millions of refugees that have been living in poverty for generations. It's easier for someone else to look after them by providing aid and food.

I'm sure the South Koreans after seeing what happened between East and West Germany aren't exactly keen on it either.

It's like pouring two glasses of water into one larger cup. South Korea has maybe 60% but North Korea has less than 1%.

[Urzu 7]

Originally Posted by SoldierOfDarkness

Exactly.

China doesn't want the responsibility of looking after millions of refugees that have been living in poverty for generations. It's easier for someone else to look after them by providing aid and food.

I'm sure the South Koreans after seeing what happened between East and West Germany aren't exactly keen on it either.

It's like pouring two glasses of water into one larger cup. South Korea has maybe 60% but North Korea has less than 1%.

Thing is, I hear Korea being unified will be much worse than Germany when it was unified. N. Korea integrating into S. Korea (and it just being 'Korea' again) will be brutal on their economy. So many Koreans from N. Korea are basically peasants, and even those who are 'skilled' and 'trained' are going to be outclassed by those that are truly skilled and trained in South Korea.

And come to think of it, it's most likely that the primary reason China has been aiding N. Korea is because they don't want to deal with refugees. Maybe decades ago they were their ally because of the Chinese civil war and the aid they got from N. Korea, but in recent decades, it has probably been because of the refugee thing, not an "I.O.U." to N. Korea. China wouldn't still be putting up with N. Korea over some "I.O.U.".

[ganbaru]

North Korea looks inward for founder's birthday, tensions ease
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...93D0DS20130415

[NoemiChan]

Originally Posted by ganbaru

North Korea looks inward for founder's birthday, tensions ease
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...93D0DS20130415

US should celebrate his death anniversary...

[Kameruka]

I hate to spoil the fun but I don't think the real-life version of internet flame wars can be considered as a "crisis" in first place.

[SoldierOfDarkness]

Originally Posted by Urzu 7

Thing is, I hear Korea being unified will be much worse than Germany when it was unified. N. Korea integrating into S. Korea (and it just being 'Korea' again) will be brutal on their economy. So many Koreans from N. Korea are basically peasants, and even those who are 'skilled' and 'trained' are going to be outclassed by those that are truly skilled and trained in South Korea.

Last I checked West Germany is STILL paying the costs for East Germany.

As you said, South Korea would literally be forced to carry the heavy burden for the North Koreans for over a century or even more. I know the Soviet Union was brutal but I don't think the conditions compare to that of North Korea.

And come to think of it, it's most likely that the primary reason China has been aiding N. Korea is because they don't want to deal with refugees. Maybe decades ago they were their ally because of the Chinese civil war and the aid they got from N. Korea, but in recent decades, it has probably been because of the refugee thing, not an "I.O.U." to N. Korea. China wouldn't still be putting up with N. Korea over some "I.O.U.".

It is the reason.

The only reason the Chinese got invovled was because the American general was pushing towards their border quickly. He was ordered NOT to go too close but did anyways so out of logical concern they counter attacked. Remember, this was the whole communist vs. democracy thing so a democratic country under the US didn't bode well with the Chinese.

At this point now that China and the US are strongly tied together and aren't interersted in fighting each other it's a matter of the refugees.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by SoldierOfDarkness

Last I checked West Germany is STILL paying the costs for East Germany.

As you said, South Korea would literally be forced to carry the heavy burden for the North Koreans for over a century or even more. I know the Soviet Union was brutal but I don't think the conditions compare to that of North Korea.

If you examine it, you realize it's astronomically worse than with German reunification.


East German population: 16.3 million
West German population: 62.1 million
Percentage of: 26%

North Korea Population: 24.7 million
South Korea population: 48.9 million
Percentage of: 50%

East German GDP/Capita: $9.6k
West German GDP/Capita: $15.3k
Percentage of: 63%

North Korea GDP per capita: $1.8K
South Korean GDP per capita: $32.4k
Percentage of: 5%


During reunification, South Korea will have to process twice as many people relative to their population as East Germany had to. And despite the dramatically lower GDP per capita, at least there WAS an industrialized economy to take over. But considering that the average GDP per capita in North Korea is 5% of what it is in the South...It's simply impossible for South Korea to take charge of 25 million people living on a peasant level, and instantly bring them up to even the standards of what would be poverty in South Korea. I can only imagine what reunification would do to South Korea's GINI coefficient. It'd take decades, perhaps even over half a century for South Korea to build up the North economically.


As it is, the only way I could see a Korean unification happening anytime soon would be with the establishment of an apartheid system.

[Sumeragi]

You know, I can't figure out why people think ROK didn't prepare already.

ROK plans to have a separate administration for former DPRK, as in a separate state until the differences are minimized.

[AmeNoJaku]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

You know, I can't figure out why people think ROK didn't prepare already.

ROK plans to have a separate administration for former DPRK, as in a separate state until the differences are minimized.

Eh?! Probably, because this plan has no relation to reality past or present

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

You know, I can't figure out why people think ROK didn't prepare already.

ROK plans to have a separate administration for former DPRK, as in a separate state until the differences are minimized.

Because most policies have failed so far?

-Sunshine- Didn't go anywhere other than money for NK current gov.

-Reunification tax-Killed by the government I believe.

-Economic Co-Op Plan such as Kaesong-Shot dead by North Korea last week.

And what you propose is really delaying the inevitable. "As a separate state until ready" means no change for the current status quo....except now North Korea is no longer obligated to keep their populace from fleeing the place. It might be same as the current North Korea!

No matter what happens, SK will be obligated to transfer massive amount of resources to bring North into South anyway.

[Ridwan]

I heard it once before that should the Kims be overthrown and a military junta takes over, we'll get a radicalized North Korea. But somehow I doubt that, and tend to think they'll be more or less the same.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

You know, I can't figure out why people think ROK didn't prepare already.

ROK plans to have a separate administration for former DPRK, as in a separate state until the differences are minimized.

But will just preparation be enough to make that go over smoothly? We're talking about something that at best is going to have to be done over the course of decades.



How much autonomy will this separate post DPRK administration have? Considering the massive economic imbalance, I have a hard time imagining it being anything other than a subsidiary state controlled directly by Seoul. And while nominally the objective will be to build up the North AND protect the economic stability/interests of the South...won't the ROK government have a temptation to put South Korean interests ahead of Northern ones?

Given all the recurring problems in Germany despite having a much more ideal situation, I have a hard time thinking any of this will easily go according to plan.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

How much autonomy will this separate post DPRK administration have? Considering the massive economic imbalance, I have a hard time imagining it being anything other than a subsidiary state controlled directly by Seoul.

Basically, all of northern Korea will be like the Kaesong Industrial Region. That's the only way any reunified Korea will survive.

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

And while nominally the objective will be to build up the North AND protect the economic stability/interests of the South...won't the ROK government have a temptation to put South Korean interests ahead of Northern ones?

ROK interests is basically the interests of northern Korea. Blunt, but everyone knows that only not swamping ROK like what happened with BRD would the reunified Korea be its own power.


Believe me, having researched this for my one of my university thesis makes me appreciate just how much hardness the north shall have to face because of the depth it is in right now.

[AmeNoJaku]

Sumeragi, I get the feeling that you are talking about some far fetched fantasy exceeding even the German reunification that never happened in reality

In between, I hope north koreans don't launch any nukes or scuds or whatever crap they produced by starving their population like the south was doing for the first 30 years after their civil war on my head