[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 3 Banquet of the golden witch

[Exilon]

Spoiler:

Originally Posted by Peroyasha

Isn't that the same as what I wrote? Sorry, I'm not following how that's any different. Are you suggesting Nanjo is alone in all these acts of murder in all the episodes? That I am 100% disagree with, whoever is the murderer, there needs to be an accomplish.

Spoiler:

I don't know if is the same, but I read it four times and only now I see where you suggest it :P sorry, my bad. I didn ot interpret it the right way, I guess.
and I do agree with you, there MUST be an accomplice, or else it's pratically impossible for the murders to have happened.

Nope =/ I'm not familiar enough with chess tactics. While I know basic chess rules like how the pieces move, promotion, castling, etc, I don't know tactics. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. In your description it seems that you believe that Nanjo is the pawn? Perhaps, I'm misunderstanding you or I'm misunderstanding who the pawn is. I thought the isolated pawn in this scenario is Jessica as she cannot protect the space in front of her or attack it, and Nanjo is stuck defending the pawn. Perhaps you suggesting they are both isolated pawns? Please explain as I really don't understand...

Spoiler:

yes, that is what I'm saying. Nanjo can be the pawn, BUT MAYBE NOT for the victim's side.
Let's see both possibilities:
For the victim's side: Nanjo can be an "isolated pawn", because he is alone and no one is there (a stronger piece) to defend him.
For the culprit's side: Nanjo is an isolated pawn because he is weak, or in other words, people will suspect him more. therefore, he can spoil the the whole game (by exposing the truth about the culprit, for example), so it's convenient to use him for better ends, like getting rid of him, or (and this can be common in chess), preparing a trap while using it as a decoy. Like you're going for a promotion but instead you're focusing on checkmate, for example.

BTW the promotion angel is really interesting. I don't understand how that'll play here, but that's probably something worth looking into.

It can play quite well, depending on who you consider to be the pawn. If you consider Jessica has the pawn, she is dangerous because she heard the culprit trying to get in her room, for example; she can get strong enough if she is promoted. but for that, she needs to get to the last square. The analogy kinda works here... anyways, anyone can be an isolated pawn, or just a simple pawn, that, with THE PROPER MOVES, can get promoted and transform into a very dangerous piece that can easily checkmate the opponent.

Spoiler:

q1) Safe for what? If it's related to the riddle, Eva and Rosa were able to solve the riddle without such number. I don't see how it's connected.

q2) Why now? Why write a safe combination on a door after 15 people are killed.

Sorry, I don't see why a safe would suddenly come into the picture.
I'm not saying my suggestion is correct, but I just don't see how one could come to this conclusion.

...I just made it up, I wasn't even really considering it. Yes, I was actually aware of those two points, but:

1) someone else could've written in (not the culprit), like Kyrie, and since she didn't have time, she tried to do it quickly. ...A combination for a safe only a few people would know of? ...It'd not be surprising for Kyrie (or rudolf) to have a safe which code is Battler's birthday. after all, he's their "son".

2) that works for any of your theories as well.why would the culprit write that? what did he wanted? why would he want to pass any message? Or is it that (if there are 2 murderers like you suggested), one murderer wanted to reveal the other? and even if that was so, wouldn't there be easier ways to do it?

[Rias]

Originally Posted by Peroyasha

Spoiler:

Another thing strange about Night 1, is this is the first time Maria was not shown the circle. Without Maria, the remaining survivors could not relate the magic circles to a Biblical reference or to the witch Beatrice. IIRC in EP 01, was it George or Hideyoshi who drew in Maria's notebook to recognize the symbol. I don't remember who actually made the suggestion. It might have been Battler or Jessica. In EP 02 Maria came along with the other children to the sanctuary, iirc.

I'm sure there was a mistake made in Night 1 in this episode. Night 2 suggests that as it's too uncharacteristic of "Beatrice" to not follow up. In the Meta-world battle with Beato and Virgilia also suggests something went awry. Also another thing uncharacteristic is this Night 1 murder was fairly clean compared to the previous Night 1 murders.

Spoiler:

Building on that, another weird thing about ep3 is that...all the magical circles are the same. Once the only person who can read it, Maria, is dead, there isn't any other variations to them. It's as if whoever drew the magical circles either don't know any other ones, or knew that it doesn't matter anymore as no one else can read it. In other words, he/she/they aren't trying that hard to build up the whole "there's a witch!" or "there's more than 18 people!" theme, which seems to be different when compared to ep1/2. For the survivors, it's almost as if they knew what was being announced in the meta world, that Beatrice/Ronove announced that there isn't a 19th person and that there are witches around.

Also, the atmosphere is the real world seems very...relaxed compared to ep1 and 2. If we realisticly look at what happened in ep3, by not considering the anti-mystery components and the meta world:

-6 people die in a loop formation, one in each room. 5 got speared/shot, Ginzo got burnt. Somewhat of a closed room for all of them. (probably the most 'intriging' of them all for ep3)
-Maria and Rosa went outside, Maria got strangled to death, Rosa got pierced by the fence.
-More people went outside the guest house and got shot or stabbed in the main house.
-In the end Eva shot Battler (not red text confirmed dead), Jessica still hiding somewhere.


The mentality of each person towards the whole ordeal also seems to be quite different. In ep1/2, they are trying to solve the mystery by pointing fingers at each other and making sense of the situation. In ep3, they are more relaxed, leaves all the stuff alone (and only has Nanjo to check the corpses), more concentrated on finding the gold, and just want to find the "person" behind it and give them a piece of their minds.

I realised alot of the "mystery" component is moved to the meta world instead, but it doesn't seem natural that people in the real world doesn't seem to care that much. Sure, there's the whole "oh maybe the first murders are an act ordered by Ginzo" thinking, but it didn't change much even after Maria and Rosa died.

[chronotrig]

Spoiler for umi3:

Well, if they were calmer in ep3, maybe it was because no one important had died. Let's face it, no one was sad to see Kinzo go, and the only ones really hurt were George and Jessica because of Kanon and Shannon. The family was suspicious and distant from Genji, Kumasawa was already old, and Gohda's a bastard. Also, Ryuukishi isn't showing us all of the scenes where they react to the deaths. If you remember, Higurashi was the same way. If he had to show George or Battler freaking out the same way each game, it would get old fast.

However, there's still the question of why the servants were selected. It really seems like the first twilight is made for impact in the first 2 episodes, both by who was chosen and how they died. But in episode 3, not only were the deaths less grotesque, the culprit killed off almost every person that wasn't either a parent or a child (Kinzo doesn't count).

In fact, since we know about Beatrice's habit of bluffing, it could be that all the crazy magic from this episode was to hide the fact that it just wasn't as convincing in the real world. If something like ep1's tea party had happened after this episode instead, I'll bet Battler wouldn't be the only one denying the witch (including Maria, whose opinion might have been changed slightly after being brutally and repeatedly murdered by a witch).

[crazysjd89]

I've only read up to Chapter 12 of Episode 3, but I wanted to post this.

As for right now, I don't have one well-built up theory about how a human is doing the murders, I have various ones, but none that link. But I do have one theory that links very well, that I want to post. The theory:

Spoiler for Theory:

The Beatrice with Meta-Battler is a real witch, however she is not the "culprit".

This is what I think. I'll try to organize this as best I can.

Beatrice's Connection to the murders:

What I believe is that Beatrice came up to either one of the 18 people, or a 19th person(I'll explain about this later), and convinced them to kill people to make people believe in her. Why? It's mentioned several times throughout the game, "Magic is more powerful the more people believe". The riddle is carried out to make people believe in Beatrice, and when everyone believes in her, the last line is fulfilled, she is awakened with her power.

This wouldn't be the first time we've seen this from Ryukishi. Takano also tried to make people believe in Oyashiro-sama, to "make herself stronger" (It made people more suspectible to paranoia).

Furthermore, this explains why Virgilia, a witch, is helping Battler disproove a witch. She doesn't want to let Beatrice free on the world to use magic and kill people freely.

As for how she came to the culprit, episode 2 shows us. It's the same way she communicated with Shannon and got her to destroy the seal.

The Inscrption:

A lot of people ask questions like "Why would someone stop murdering just because someone discovered the gold?" and "Why don't they just torture someone who knows?" etc. But this theory can also explain that perfectly.

Because the culprit who is carrying out the murders, is actually going about a more direct way to get the gold.

If Beatrice came up to the culprit, promising them all of Kinzo's fortune, that would be huge motivation, esspecially if the culprit were Rudolph, Eva, or Rosa(They aren't the head and they would also not have to split anything with their sibilings.).

So why would the culprit stop if the riddle were solved? Lack of motivation. Since the gold now belongs to whoever solved the riddle, Beatrice can't give it to the culprit. And the reason why Beatrice gave the others a chance to get the gold is to add the "risk" for her awakening.

"The Game":

By this, I mean Beatrice's game with Battler. This is another risk for Beatrice, and also something she must do. If Battler doesn't believe in the witch, then Beatrice can't be awakened. It's a risk because Battler may figure out how the human culprit did the murders. If he did that, then Beatrice would not be able to be awakened.

Red Text:

No matter how much this is explained, I can't think of any theory where this makes it challenging. Even if you believe magic did it, that just makes this even more weird.

If it really were magic, Beatrice could deny everything Battler says that isn't the magic solution, however she doesn't. That's why the red text is fair, and not one-sided to Beatrice. Beatrice can take the obvious solutions away from Battler, but if Battler figures out how it was really done, then Beatrice is trapped. A double-edged sword.

Once again, I'm going to say it's a risk. This helps her proove Battler's theories wrong, but she obviously can't use it if what he says is true.

Battler's Goal:

I find this weird too. Battler's Goal isn't "Proove magic doesn't exist." it's "Proove the crimes are possible for a human." The former is false in this theory, but that's why Beatrice doesn't use it, since then there would be no risk.

The game leads us into believing Beatrice lets Battler win sometimes to get his hopes up, but I think thats just a facade.

Unfair Game

This is combining the last two theories, to make a point. If Battler had to proove that Magic didn't exist, and assuming, Beatrice wouldn't simply say "Magic did it" in red, this would still be unfair. To go along with the game's chess analogies, it would be like they started a Chess game where Battler only had his king, but Beatrice had all her pieces. It's impossible for Battler to win, and at best he could get a Stalemate(In the case of this game, he would just keep denying the witch without giving out evidence.) I know I'm probably beating a dead horse, but once again, this would come at no risk to Beatrice, so she wouldn't be as powerful as she could be.

Theory of 18+x humans where x>0:

I think there is still a chance for this theory. At first Beatrice's red text tricked me, but I have an idea for this now.

For one thing, she didn't instantly recite this for Battler, it was sometime after the proposal she proclaimed "There are no more then 18 humans on this island". You might think she was trying to get Battler's hopes up, but I think it was something less arrogant.

Before explaining, I wish I could know what her definition of "island" was. Battler was to distraught to ask, but was her definition of "island" actually standing on the land? If that's her definition, then my solution works, I think.

She told the culprit to go out to sea for awhile. Not very far, just maybe a couple meters out where he was floating on water and not touching the shore, but close enough where the typhoon wouldn't throw him off to sea(Possibly holding on to some rock formation or something).

It might seem a tad crazy for someone to accept doing something like that, but, you might do crazier things if you were promised 20 billion yen worth of gold plus some. Therefore, if her definition of island doesn't include the surronding waters, she could freely proclaim "There are only 18 humans on this island"!

And she's certainly not over manipulating things to work the red text in her favor. When Battler had her cornered with his "suicide" theory, she tried to slip by it by saying something slightly different then what Battler had asked her to say.

OF course, this isn't mandatory for my theory of Beatrice getting someone to kill for her, but it is one that keeps the "19th person theory" alive.

Beatrice appearing:

I saw an interesting post by chronotrig in here, that pointed out that noone saw Beatrice use her magic and lived to tell of it, and then Rias posted stating 4 times where it did happen.

Those 4 times, though, had nothing to do with the murders, so possibly those 4 situations were REAL magic that Beatrice used to try and make Battler believe in her magic. She doesn't have enough power to kill people until Battler believes, but she can do magic like that, to try and convince Battler that magic is doing the killings. In short, those 4 situations are red herrings.

When saying "she doesn't have enough power", I think the beginning of Episode 3 gave us a good hint also. Virgilia wasn't able to change the pot's fate of being broken, but was only able to delay it. This could also be the same for Beatrice.

Krauss's Gold Ingot of Episode 1:

If we assume Krauss is who Beatrice "hired" (I find it hard to believe that Eva, Rudolf, or Rosa would be able to murder their spouses or children, but with Krauss and how horribly he treats Natsuhi, I can see it happening) She used the gold ingot to proove to Krauss that the gold existed. Krauss is already the head, but he would have to split the inheritance with his siblings.

Also, Krauss knows more about the mansion then most people(I would say not as much as Kinzo or Genji and possibly a bit under or on par with Shannon and Kanon), and he knows more about the Guesthouse then anyone, since he is the one who built it.

Episode 1, Natsuhi's Letter:
Under this theory, we can assume that the letter Natsuhi found wasn't from Beatrice, but from the human culprit. Possibly something like "Now that I have completed Beatrice's tasks, I am now the head of the Ushiromiya Family."

This would make Natsuhi angry, and she would go for the duel. Also, because of episode 3, we know there's more then one gun. Possibly, the culprit shot her with one gun and set it up to make it look like Natsuhi commited suicide.

Alternativly, if we assume it really was Krauss like I said above, then it's possible he got her to commit suicide, either in despair, or she respected the "last wish her husband would make to her". That is something I can see Natsuhi doing because of her pride, even if it meant leaving Jessica alone.

So, what happened to the cousins at the end of Episode 1:

Beatrice was awakened, and since the person who awakened her had been promised everything of Kinzo's, the cousins also "became his". He might of killed them all, or possibly, he was sadistic from the start, which is why Beatrice knew he would kill for her, and he possibly uses the kids for his own sadistic pleasure. And God knows what he used Maria and Jessica for.

Maria's Letter:

Maria felt betrayed by the witch, since there was no Golden Village, and she was left to a sadistic man who probably did horrible things to her. She managed to send her message, wanting people to know the truth, possibly to "kill" Beatrice(to stop believing in her.) Unfortunatly, noone was able to solve it, and it became the "Witch Serial Murders", thus, exhaulting Beatrice and keeping her alive.

As I get further into Episode 3, I might add stuff or some part of it might get prooven false, but I posted it now, because I would like to see what people think and to see if they can add onto it or debunk it.

[chronotrig]

Wow, you really only read that much and you still got all that? Pretty much all of what you said still stands.

Spoiler for ep3:

What it sounds like to me, is that you're saying Beatrice could be like a kind of evil Hanyuu. In the end of Higurashi, Hanyuu was able to go back in time less and less, and we know that Matsuribayashi was going to be the final world. And the reason they gave for that was that less people believed in gods in the modern era, so Hanyuu's power was weaker. You could even argue that as people started remembering other worlds and figuring out the truth, they believed less in Oyashiro-sama, so her power got even weaker.

So maybe Beatrice isn't fighting against boredom, but fighting for her life. Maybe she's found some way to exist without disappearing by making a small group of people believe in her really strongly. And if you think about it, this time, this place, is the best situation for her to do that (a large group of people in an isolated area).

If she's 'Hanyuu-like', then it would make sense for her to have very small powers, like talking to people and maybe fixing things. In fact, that would explain the difference in the magic she and Virgilia use in the main game, and the pitiful fixing a vase in the prologue. The crazy magic is an illusion, the rest is not.

This both ties umineko and higurashi together, and ties the 'mystery' vs 'fantasy' together without eliminating either of them.

[theacefrehley]

For crazysjd89's stuff:

Spoiler:

I don't know if it was you, but I remember someone posted a theory like that, back in episode 1; that Beatrice would be real but, like Hanyuu, she could not cause much interference in the real world, and, being an evil being, after ressurrected she simply slaughtered the survivors, as there was any need to keep on incurring into 'risks' anymore.

But I never thought like you, that she could show up here and there and show some small tricks. For now, it stands solid (even though without much evidence) but it's good like this because, soon, we'll put it to test against EP4.

But I'm kind afraid to accept this 'there are people somewhere in the sea, nearby, and it doesn't count as 'in the island', as you mentioned.

This could simply open the possiblity for a whole 'Yamainu/Yamayagi Team' hiding there and ocasionally going in and out the island to do the dirty work in the shadows.

Besides, it's more instigating to try to figure things out just with 18 people .

I'm not denying your suggestion, though.

Spoiler for peroyasha:

In the Meta-world battle with Beato and Virgilia also suggests something went awry. Also another thing uncharacteristic is this Night 1 murder was fairly clean compared to the previous Night 1 murders.

Spoiler for comment:

Indeed, all that stuff about giants (Gohda?), spears, shields and God of Death and War (Mars? There's a magical square about Mars, if I'm not mistaken) riding a giant horse could suggest at least a heavy discussion between night 1 murder and the servants. And given the relatively 'soft' setting of the first night, most probably an uninvited guest, someone different from usual, did it.

使用人たちの死因は正確には不明だが、南條先生の見立てでは、槍のようなもので突かれたか、……もしくは銃 で撃たれた可能性が高いという。

Anyone with the gun, that is...

Spoiler for Nanjo's death plea:

「や、……やめてくれ……！　
殺さないでくれ…！！　
わしには病弱の孫がおる…！
ここでは死ねんのだ…！　
頼む、見逃してくれ…ッ！！　
ヒイィ！！！」

Spoiler:

Hmm, it seems even Nanjo might have a reason to want money. In the end, the only sheeps seem to be the kids ()...

This episode seems to be the Watanagashi/Meakashi type of Umineko. The episode where things go wrong to the mastermind.

[jonnysalaris]

DISTRACTION!!! hehe... i want to ask why there are no ep 3 tea party spoilers?

[nagare]

Always interesting to read the other side of the argument.
GJ, crazysjd89. ^^

Spoiler for @theacefrehley:

Originally Posted by theacefrehley

Indeed, all that stuff about giants (Gohda?), spears, shields and God of Death and War (Mars? There's a magical square about Mars, if I'm not mistaken) riding a giant horse could suggest at least a heavy discussion between night 1 murder and the servants. And given the relatively 'soft' setting of the first night, most probably an uninvited guest, someone different from usual, did it.

使用人たちの死因は正確には不明だが、南條先生の見立てでは、槍のようなもので突かれたか、……もしくは銃 で撃たれた可能性が高いという。

Anyone with the gun, that is...

Actually, I wasn't really referring to the actual magic battle itself. I was thinking of the chess terminology Virgilia used: Back Rank Mate and Smothered Mate both are type's of checkmates which can be achieve early game. Back Rank Mate is usually due to a beginner's mistake (according to wiki). Smothered Mate basically states that the opponent cornered himself in. It was odd and felt out of place when Virgilia mentioned those two terms. Even later, Fool's Mate is also mentioned. This is also a very early game checkmate. However, Fool's Mate is usually an intentional lost unless the opponent is very weak.

「や、……やめてくれ……！　
殺さないでくれ…！！　
わしには病弱の孫がおる…！
ここでは死ねんのだ…！　
頼む、見逃してくれ…ッ！！　
ヒイィ！！！」

Hmm, it seems even Nanjo might have a reason to want money. In the end, the only sheeps seem to be the kids ()...

Personally, that seemed so clique so I thought he was lying at first... but then it's confirmed he was murdered. I still think it's too clique and feels scripted, but I have nothing to support that so I opt to leave it out in my overly long winded theory. But considering both Nanjo and his son are doctors and iirc Nanjo owning a hospital himself not too far from the island, I can't think of money for his sick grandson to be the main motivator for Nanjo.

Originally Posted by jonnysalaris

DISTRACTION!!! hehe... i want to ask why there are no ep 3 tea party spoilers?

Spoiler:

Lambdadelta is still playing Higurashi and doesn't know the villain and refused Bernkastel's offer for that answer.

[theacefrehley]

Not that odd, those chess terms

When Walgiria mentioned this:

「バックランクメイト！
安らかに眠りなさい。」

It was right after Beato tried to turn her into dust with all those thousands of fragments of spear/shields.

It was as though she was saying: 'Novice, you still have too much to learn'

And when she said:

「スマザードメイト。
楽しかったですよ、ベアトリーチェ！」

Beato was trying to run away, before the Walgiria's 'final attack'.

It was as though she was saying: 'You have nowhere to go now!'

[nagare]

Spoiler:

It isn't odd b/c of the situation of the battle; it's odd because of the sudden use of terminology which indicates there was mistake made which led to a "checkmate."

Bank Rank Mate
In chess, a back rank checkmate is a checkmate delivered by a rook or queen along a back rank (that is, the row on which the pieces (not pawns) stand at the start of the game) in which the mated king is unable to move up the board because the king is blocked by friendly pieces (usually pawns) on the second rank. [...] Back rank mates occur quite often in games at fairly low levels, as it occurs out of carelessness. This is due to the fact that beginners typically lack the skill to realize that such a fate could occur based on the laws of the game.

Smothered Mate
In chess, a smothered mate is a checkmate delivered by a knight in which the mated king is unable to move because he is surrounded (or smothered) by his own pieces.
[...]
Occasionally, a smothered mate may be possible in the opening of a game.

Instead of the magic battle, let's try to relate this to the "real" world.
Back Rank Mate is signifying that the opponent had left an ally for the aggressor to come through. Possibly there was an unknown to the rule (a door way for example) that the opponent was not aware of. Of the six rooms, two possibly had doors people didn't know of. Sanctuary which hasn't been denied yet of having a secret passage way. The other is the infamous boiler room which is unknown how many people actually knew about the other door (although most likely all the servants knew). There's actually third possibility which exists if we are to believe that Kinzo, Genji, Shanon, and Kannon were all killed in Kinzo's study. Kinzo's study was also never denied of having a secret passage way either.

Smothered Mate is signifying the opponent cornered himself in with no escape. Again here, the Sanctuary and Kinzo's study are suspicious because they are the rooms with the most limited access.

[nagare]

Probably some over-thinking but...

Spoiler for 即死定義疑問:

Beato
即死とはつまり、攻撃を受けて即座に行動不能になったという意味だ。まぁ、完全な意味での死亡 には数秒、 もしくは数分をかけたかもしれん。だが何れせよ、自らの意思で何かの行動を取ることは完全に不 可能であった 。その意味において、即死と断言できる！

I just notice a problem with this. Beato's instant death clause means after the person was attacked they are immobile unable to take action. The actual death could be any time after that point.

Meaning poisoning a person to paralyze them or to make the go to sleep and killing them hours later will also fall under the 即死定義. Same will go with knocking them out or tying/gagging them up for hours before their actual death.

I'm not sure what can really take advantage of this loop hole as only the first 6 were considered 即死... Kinzo's death perhaps?

[Nadeor]

Originally Posted by Peroyasha

Probably some over-thinking but...

Spoiler for 即死定義疑問:

I just notice a problem with this. Beato's instant death clause means after the person was attacked they are immobile unable to take action. The actual death could be any time after that point.

Meaning poisoning a person to paralyze them or to make the go to sleep and killing them hours later will also fall under the 即死定義. Same will go with knocking them out or tying/gagging them up for hours before their actual death.

I'm not sure what can really take advantage of this loop hole as only the first 6 were considered 即死... Kinzo's death perhaps?

Spoiler:

Wait...No matter how I put it, it just seems a bit awkward

I once read a short folk tale
It's about a king, one day he saw smoke coming out from the forest
He thought it's the enemies attacking, by burning down the forest, to threaten them
The king arranged his army and charged towards the location where the smoke come from
But it turns out it was just a campfire made by a family living nearby

It's just that we are taking this problem a bit too seriously, like that Joker guy in Batman: "Y So Srs?"
Back in Higurashi, there were floods of theoretical posts when Himatsubushi-hen came out, all discussing about the possibilities and ways in the story
It turns out most of the theories are simpler than what we are thinking...

How about let's try turning the biggest chessboard around here:

Invert Chessboard: Ryukishi is trying to make us waste our mind too hard by guessing the murderer's intention and how did he/she do it?

So, let's try look it the similar way to Higurashi:
-What's Supernatural?
-What's Coincidental?
-What's Commitable?(I meant done by human hands, just so that this rhymes)

[Exilon]

Spoiler:

...I've seen many people pay too much attention to small details, but someone could actually be right. I don't think Ryukishi is making us wasting our mind. He's just a good story-writer and wants us to "enjoy" the trip to Rokkenjima. (At least that's kinda what's written in the episode's summary in the main menu :P).

Hum, I don't like to see Umineko as a "second Higurashi". when I do it, I kinda get lost apllying Higurashi's rules to Umineko, and they are completely different and doesn't let me focus properly...

[Roll]

I'm agree with you guys. Plus, If we have to apply the same logic as in Higurashi, I think we just should wait until the Answer Arcs come out, don't you think? I mean, many clues to solve the mistery were given in Meakashi-hen and Tsumihoroboshi-hen. I think it's just a matter of time, until we can have real clues.

[theacefrehley]

Originally Posted by Roll

I'm agree with you guys. Plus, If we have to apply the same logic as in Higurashi, I think we just should wait until the Answer Arcs come out, don't you think? I mean, many clues to solve the mistery were given in Meakashi-hen and Tsumihoroboshi-hen. I think it's just a matter of time, until we can have real clues.

But the fun thing about it is to create theories now and see what we did think right or wrong in the end, and improve the theories as the episodes come out.

What is the fun about seeing a mystery and say: 'well, let's wait 2 years until the the solution comes out'?

I remember that back in Onikakushi-hen, I already saw people making theories about a weird 'paranoia disease'.

Even if we are completely wrong, it's a good time-killing entertainment

[Nadeor]

It all comes down to Ryukishi's ending XD
Anyways, yes that could be possible
I didn't say anything about applying the rules of higurashi to umineko, just that some parts are similar, you have to agree with me

[Exilon]

Key words being: some and similar =)
I didn't mean that as well, but sometimes when I'm analyzing Umineko information from Higurashi pops up and then I realize it's two different worlds xD Or when I forcefully want Umineko to be like Higurashi... (like forgetting Maria doesn't know of past arcs like Rika, because Maria isn't Rika, even though it's silly, or when I have to keep remembering myself that there's no disease and no one is hallucinating this time around) xD It's furstrating, actually.

Anyways, theorizing is fun.
And the fun part is to get to the solution and then think "Oh my god, that makes so much sense; how did I miss that?" or "YES! I knew that it was something like that!"

Spoiler:

Which makes me remember how proud I felt when I saw Minnagoroshi-hen, because I always had suspected that person (ever since Tatarigoroshi-hen).

[nagare]

『うみねこのなく頃に』の推理は、可能か不可能か。

本作品は、ジャンル的には連続殺人ミステリーになるかもしれません。
しかし、だからといって推理が可能であることを保証するものではありません。

“解けるようにできている”甘口パズルをお好みの方はどうぞお引取りを。
『うみねこのなく頃に』は、皆さんに“解かせる気が毛頭ない”最悪な物語です。

しかし、だからこそ挑みたくなる最悪な皆さんは、初めましてようこそ。
私も、そんな最悪な皆さんを“屈服させたくて”この物語をお届けします。

皆さんは、どんな不思議な出来事が起こっても、全て“人間とトリック”で説明し、
一切の神秘を否定する、最悪な人間至上主義者共です。

どうぞ、六軒島で起こる不可解な事件の数々を、存分に“人間とトリック”で説明してください。
皆さんが、どこまで人間至上主義を貫けるのか、それを試したいのです。

犯人は魔女。アリバイもトリックも全ては魔法。
こんなのミステリーじゃなくてファンタジー！

あなたが悔し涙をぼろぼろ零しながら、そう言って降参するところが見たいのです。
私が期待するのは、正解に至る推理が現れることじゃない。

一体何人が最後まで、魔女の存在を否定して、“犯人人間説”を維持できるのか。
つまりこれは、魔女と人間の戦いの物語なのです。

I personal don't really care if my theories are right or wrong.
I'll most likely be wrong. Umineko isn't even guaranteed that it is solvable.
But since Ryukishi 07 gave this ultimatum, I'll fight to the end.
I'll be happy if I get only one thing right which I've already accomplished ^^
I figured there had to be multiple Beatrices in the storyline as it's just a name being passed around back in EP 02. If any one thing I said was right in my EP 03 notes, it's just icing on the cake.

Also unlike Higurashi, Umineko has some things unique to it.
1) A riddle that is solvable. We know. At least 2 people have solve it without "magic" being involved.

2) The classic close circle feel, coupled with (presumably) undeniable facts.

3) A semi-official nod from Beatrice that everything in EP 03 is doable by mere humans.

If everything stayed the same as with EP 01, then I know I wouldn't have pursued the answer as much. Although I do miss the "horror" feeling of EP 01. When are we going to get creepy scenes like Maria just singing in the middle room with dead bodies and the characters only found about this b/c they got that phone call? That's one thing that still has my head scratching.

Originally Posted by theacefrehley

I remember that back in Onikakushi-hen, I already saw people making theories about a weird 'paranoia disease'.

The first 100 emails Ryukishi got when he released Onikakushi-hen, only 1 person thought Keiichi wasn't a reliable source because he was paranoid. That's why he put the claim on Onikakushi-hen that only 1% of its readers will solve the mystery. Also there were a quite a few who figured it was a government conspiracy after the release of Tatarigoroshi-hen game (not anime).

Anywho, Umineko is a game. Just reading and waiting for the answer is one way to play it. Others can theorize and see how much they're on track or see how completely off they are. Whichever way you want to play it, just be courteous to others who play it a different way. We'll all here to enjoy the game.

As for the rules of Higurashi applying to Umineko, of course.
If you bought the game you will notice this right away

Spoiler:

What's Supernatural?
Personally, I'm going to say none that is determining the murders or is related to them.

-What's Coincidental?
Many things. In all three episodes, there's were many things that suggests things didn't go as planned.

-What's Commitable?
Most of the things. ^^

[Roll]

Yes, you are right, I have a lot of theories too, but there's always something that busts them out, and then another theory is born xD I think is really fun to theorize too, but I get some serious headaches sometimes when I try to connect all the points in Umineko, and that's why I'd rather waiting until (At least) reading the 4th arc, when it comes out. And of course all of your theories are really good, I always have fun reading them xP, but to me this a real puzzle @_@.

[Exilon]

Meh :P
It's a real puzzle to everyone. Personally, I've only finished episode 1 (can't read japanese yet, so yeah.), so most of my theories are massively based on that, but I was quite surprised that even in episode 3 it seems they are still standing (even if they aren't as solid as they were before).
What makes it so hard in these kind of games is that when you ask everything "why?" the answer you get is mostly a blank. you know the facts, but you can't quite figure the intention behind the murders. Well, that you might, but then you ask yourself "why like this?" and that's the real blank, at least for me.

Hum, the thing that has really made me jump in umineko was one of the chapter's transitions. :P