[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 6 Dawn of the golden witch

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

"If people are actually dead, the farce would stop."
or
"If there were murder involved it's impossible that so many people could take part of such conspiracy."

This is the "wall", and as I said: either there's a way to get around it (but I've yet to find one that is really satisfactory) or the wall doesn't exist (there are no dead people until the final accident).

If [everybody is aware that] people are actually dead, the farce would stop. you mean?

There's still a good way this would work - if the killer is always the one to examine the body up until a certain point where the farce is actually dropped and everybody is aware that people are actually dead.

After that, it's very unlikely anyone would confess to participating in fakery, because this immediately makes them the prime suspect in any actual murders.

Unfortunately that overloads Nanjo -- he has to either be the actual murderer for the FT most of the time, or work for way too many factions at once.

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Unfortunately that overloads Nanjo -- he has to either be the actual murderer for the FT most of the time, or work for way too many factions at once.

If the deaths were all real, then the games wouldn't end as they have. That is what I think Jan-Poo meant but if not it is what I think.

I don't know about that last statement of yours, Nanjo could simply not be a culprit, co-culprit or accomplice at all. Also, we cannot be sure that there are factions. So, I would not say that is a true either/or statement. I just don't like limiting possibilities when they shouldn't be.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Oliver

If [everybody is aware that] people are actually dead, the farce would stop. you mean?

There's still a good way this would work - if the killer is always the one to examine the body up until a certain point where the farce is actually dropped and everybody is aware that people are actually dead.

After that, it's very unlikely anyone would confess to participating in fakery, because this immediately makes them the prime suspect in any actual murders.

Unfortunately that overloads Nanjo -- he has to either be the actual murderer for the FT most of the time, or work for way too many factions at once.

It's more like "if anybody in the fake plot is aware that people are dead for real, the farce would stop".


And I don't think it's "unlikely" at all that anyone would confess their participating in a fake murder plan. Quite the contrary if you ask me.

What would you actually do in that case? Suppose you are being part of such kind of practical joke, it seems a fun idea. Then bam the joke becomes a tragedy! Your friend/mother/father/cousin/son that was supposed to only fake his/her dead was killed in a horrible way. And you just think about saving your own ass from the police? What about saving your ass from a psycho killer first?

If it were me I'd spill the beans immediately. But sure, like 100% certainty. I wouldn't even think twice!

I don't think my moral and/or intellectual standards are so immensely above everyone else in Rokkenjima. Keeping on the farce after the murder became apparent would only aggravate my position. It was a joke so I didn't take precautions so to not let any crime scene investigation to come at me. It would be illogic and definitely suspicious if a fake plot included such kind of precautions.

The most intelligent thing to do is to tell everything ASAP, not to mention the most morally correct.

And the fake murder plot must include several people, so it's even more unlikely that no one would start telling the truth.

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

It's more like "if anybody in the fake plot is aware that people are dead for real, the farce would stop".


And I don't think it's "unlikely" at all that anyone would confess their participating in a fake murder plan. Quite the contrary if you ask me.

What would you actually do in that case? Suppose you are being part of such kind of practical joke, it seems a fun idea. Then bam the joke becomes a tragedy! Your friend/mother/father/cousin/son that was supposed to only fake his/her dead was killed in a horrible way. And you just think about saving your own ass from the police? What about saving your ass from a psycho killer first?

If it were me I'd spill the beans immediately. But sure, like 100% certainty. I wouldn't even think twice!

I don't think my moral and/or intellectual standards are so immensely above everyone else in Rokkenjima. Keeping on the farce after the murder became apparent would only aggravate my position. It was a joke so I didn't take precautions so to not let any crime scene investigation to come at me. It would be illogic and definitely suspicious if a fake plot included such kind of precautions.

The most intelligent thing to do is to tell everything ASAP, not to mention the most morally correct.

And the fake murder plot must include several people, so it's even more unlikely that no one would start telling the truth.

What if they were forcing people to play dead. "Oh, I drugged them and I was going to make everyone think they are dead but they seem really dead now and I didn't do it, so we are in some trouble."
That doesn't sound too innocent.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Unfortunately that overloads Nanjo -- he has to either be the actual murderer for the FT most of the time, or work for way too many factions at once.

He need only work for two (though by process of elimination he will work for three in this case):

1) He is a lynchpin of the fake deaths "game." He is never selected for the First Twilight because his "role" is always to confirm that people are dead. This implies he is always aware of the fake FT, and just never selected. Battler is never selected because he is never planned for; in ep6, he presumably is let in on things (but ep6's board narrative is highly suspect anyway).

2) He is being threatened by the real mastermind and ordered to continue playing his role no matter how truly, really, irrevocably dead the person he examines actually is.

When you think about it, if there is a fake deaths game and it's convincing (apparently someone is really good with makeup and stage props), the most important thing for the killer is to have control over the member of the "game" with the broadest powers to maintain the charade. That can't be anyone but Nanjo. As long as Nanjo doesn't suggest anything is out of the ordinary (like "Oh my goodness, he's really dead! He shouldn't REALLY be dead!"), everyone trusts his diagnosis not because they think he's truthful, but because they already know his "role" is to declare everybody's "corpse" as dead.

The only real flaw here is that some people are staked in the head or otherwise found in compromising situations where the notion that they aren't dead seems frankly ridiculous at a glance. There's also the problem of Battler potentially ruining everything if he's not in on it. What if he gets distraught, grabs Jessica to hug her, and realizes her heart's still beating?

Of course, if the game has been betrayed, and everyone really is dead, then nobody realizes Battler's reaction is the only genuine one present.

This could speak to Rudolf realizing there may actually be a killer. Alternately, he's trying to introduce Battler to the "game" but doesn't do a convincing enough job. Depends on who the killer actually is... if it's tied to Asumu somehow, Rudolf may have actual knowledge.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

If it were me I'd spill the beans immediately. But sure, like 100% certainty. I wouldn't even think twice!

If it were me, I would want to spill the beans. This is, indeed, natural. But I would be very, very, very, very careful about whom to spill them to, and certainly would not assemble everyone and say "Listen up, we were playing a prank, somebody killed them anyway, we had nothing to do with it". Why?

Not because of the police, not at all. Because a public confession like that is exactly what the murderer would want as an excuse to confine me to kill me later, separate me to do the same, or convince everyone to lynch me on the spot -- convincing them I lied now after an announcement like that would be easy. This would immediately destroy any trust anyone had in me.

Trust would be the only instrument I have to find and stop the actual killer -- I can't do it if nobody trusts me anymore!

Of course, I know I'm not normal, and you may well be right, but assuming people who plan this kind of prank are normal would be... well, odd, don't you think? They may also be abnormal in a very different fashion...

[Renall]

Here's a thought: What if the exact moment people realize it isn't a game is the moment Kinzo's body turns up? His death status is undeniable given how burned his body is, and what's more, there's a huge subsection of people (some of whom may be in the faking group, some not) who know for a fact that Kinzo is already dead. Unless someone's plan was to actually slip Kinzo into the faked deaths game (which is pretty much absurd), that's a huge hint that things just got real.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

The only real flaw here is that some people are staked in the head or otherwise found in compromising situations where the notion that they aren't dead seems frankly ridiculous at a glance. There's also the problem of Battler potentially ruining everything if he's not in on it. What if he gets distraught, grabs Jessica to hug her, and realizes her heart's still beating?

You tell him to leave the crime scene for the police to investigate, which was actually done multiple times. If he persists, whack him over the head.

What's curious though is that at least once Battler does this himself almost without provocation -- that is, in Ep1:

Genji: "...Milady. It wouldn't be good to remain here any longer. ...Let's return to the parlor."
Battler: "I agree... ...Hideyoshi oji-san! I think this room will be really important to the police. Don't you think it would be bad if we trampled all over it?"

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

Unless someone's plan was to actually slip Kinzo into the faked deaths game (which is pretty much absurd), that's a huge hint that things just got real.

But someone's plan to use Kinzo's body has to have existed, because it needs to either be marinated for a year (and then it's Natsuhi's plan) or exhumed before the rain starts (as it would be way too hard to do it in the rain on a dark night).

Would that mean that whoever slips Kinzo's body in is the actual murderer?

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Renall

Here's a thought: What if the exact moment people realize it isn't a game is the moment Kinzo's body turns up? His death status is undeniable given how burned his body is, and what's more, there's a huge subsection of people (some of whom may be in the faking group, some not) who know for a fact that Kinzo is already dead. Unless someone's plan was to actually slip Kinzo into the faked deaths game (which is pretty much absurd), that's a huge hint that things just got real.

They wouldn't know of the body is real, so if they knew about the faked deaths they would probably assume it were fake. I really think that the people who are part of the faked deaths plot lose too much by telling everyone about it.

How about this thought, Battler yada yada yada promise to Shanon yada yada yada. So then Shanon decides to mess with Battler when he returns and makes people fake their deaths. Why would they? Well, either everyone needs money or serves the head of the family. That person would be the person who knows where the gold is. Nanjo is the only exception, so he probably just accepted some cash in exchange for cooperation. Then the culprit starts killing people for some reason I don't know.

Originally Posted by Renall

The only real flaw here is that some people are staked in the head or otherwise found in compromising situations where the notion that they aren't dead seems frankly ridiculous at a glance. There's also the problem of Battler potentially ruining everything if he's not in on it. What if he gets distraught, grabs Jessica to hug her, and realizes her heart's still beating?

I think that is why most deaths are faked in a fashion where it is too gory to look at. Either she was dead or it was a desperate move in my opinion.

[Renall]

They can't use Kinzo because Kinzo cannot consent to being part of the "game" and Kinzo cannot be produced later, alive, to reveal that it was all just a game. He is actually dead, and as far as anyone not already aware of this knows, has been murdered. It does not suit the Kinzo Death Faction at all to have his body turn up, ever, and especially not under these circumstances.

Imagine what happens if the fake deaths plan goes off without a hitch. This may well have actually happened in ep2, where Kinzo's body never seems to turn up (though it may be in the study at the end). Why would putting in Kinzo's body help this? If it's a game, it's not funny. If it's a cover-up, it's incongruous (how come Kinzo is the only one who actually died?).

This is the old question: Why would Natsuhi and Krauss murder people to cover up Kinzo's death by slipping him in as a real corpse? But of course, we now believe Natsuhi and Krauss would not do such a thing. And more to the point, we now suspect people are faking outright. If that were true, you never want to burn the corpse. It can't work out well for you.

And the killer doesn't want to do it either. Once people suspect the deaths are real, your job gets harder.

There is one, and only one reason to burn Kinzo's body: You are aware of both the fake death plot and the Kinzo death conspiracy and suspect there is a true murderer, and are going to expose them by throwing in a body everybody will know should not be there.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

There is one, and only one reason to burn Kinzo's body: You are aware of both the fake death plot and the Kinzo death conspiracy and suspect there is a true murderer, and are going to expose them by throwing in a body everybody will know should not be there.

Wait, that's a thread. Let's pull on it.

What would be the reason for the hypothetical Kinzo burner to recover the corpse beforehand? Do they think there might be a true murder so Kinzo needs to be exhumed "just in case", do they know for sure, or do they have some other reason to exhume him and it's just a side effect that this corpse is now available for burning? Why exactly don't they voice their concerns to people involved if they know of both conspiracies?

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Oliver

If it were me, I would want to spill the beans. This is, indeed, natural. But I would be very, very, very, very careful about whom to spill them to, and certainly would not assemble everyone and say "Listen up, we were playing a prank, somebody killed them anyway, we had nothing to do with it". Why?

Not because of the police, not at all. Because a public confession like that is exactly what the murderer would want as an excuse to confine me to kill me later, separate me to do the same, or convince everyone to lynch me on the spot -- convincing them I lied now after an announcement like that would be easy. This would immediately destroy any trust anyone had in me.

Trust would be the only instrument I have to find and stop the actual killer -- I can't do it if nobody trusts me anymore!

Of course, I know I'm not normal, and you may well be right, but assuming people who plan this kind of prank are normal would be... well, odd, don't you think? They may also be abnormal in a very different fashion...

But you are assuming to be the only one aware of the fake murder plot, and you know it's almost impossible that this is the case in umineko. At least one person, Nanjo, must take part in it and he almost always survives until very late. So if you have at least one person to back your claims, your version of the facts would be trusted enough.

Also you need to take in account that there is Battler in the picture, which in almost every case shows his ability to debunk all false accusations. A person like Battler would immediately recognize that a real culprit would never confess to have performed a fake murder, unless there's been suspicions on him in the first place.

Anyway if you think that "people would tell but not to everyone". then the question becomes: "why don't they tell to Battler?"

In every episode Battler is usually one of the most trusted person. The only exception is the very end of EP2 when there's really no one else left for Rosa to suspect.

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Renall

There is one, and only one reason to burn Kinzo's body: You are aware of both the fake death plot and the Kinzo death conspiracy and suspect there is a true murderer, and are going to expose them by throwing in a body everybody will know should not be there.

Correction, that is the only one you think to be true. Krauss and Natsuhi can still be the ones to slip his body in, they gain from it. They just can't be murderers. How do you slip in a body without the chance of screwing yourself over when you get caught or the murderer finding out and then killing everyone out of a new fear that there is another murderer? I still would like to think everyone aside from Kinzo was bribed into faking their deaths and Kinzo would be thrown in. The bomb would be used to cover all of that up. The people who faked their deaths could go and live new lives without debts and a lot of money. Then again, their money would be in the form of pure gold bars.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Anyway if you think that "people would tell but not to everyone". then the question becomes: "why don't they tell to Battler?"

Battler had just returned from 6 years of not being to a conference and murders start happening... is he really all that trustworthy?

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Smeckledorf

Correction, that is the only one you think to be true. Krauss and Natsuhi can still be the ones to slip his body in, they gain from it. They just can't be murderers.

They only gain if they are aware that there are real murders happening. That implies, in the opposing sense, that they aren't aware of any fake death plan. But at least one of Krauss or Natsuhi is alleged to be part of the First Twilight in no less than five games out of six. So one of them not at least being recruited just seems wrong somehow.

If you aren't aware of the fake death plan, and you slip in Kinzo's body, you are screwed when everyone else reveals they aren't dead. Of course, that's still possible. Hubris is what it is, after all.

However, I think it far more likely that this is some kind of affirmative act by somebody (Genji?) to flush out a real killer.

The problem is ep3, where Kinzo appears from the start. Unless Kinzo was not the person who was supposed to be in that boiler room...

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

But you are assuming to be the only one aware of the fake murder plot, and you know it's almost impossible that this is the case in umineko. At least one person, Nanjo, must take part in it and he almost always survives until very later. So if you have at least one person to back your claims, your version of the facts would be trusted enough.

Depends -- would they back me up? What if I suspect them? The easiest way for them to go on if they are the murderer is to deny my story and blame everything on me.
I think this one is based on a fundamental difference of opinion and therefore a singular truth cannot be reached.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Anyway if you think that "people would tell but not to everyone". then the question becomes: "why don't they tell to Battler?"

In every episode Battler is usually one of the most trusted person. The only exception is the very end of EP2 when there's really no one else left for Rosa to suspect.

I'm not sure why exactly is Battler the most trusted. Is he really? Does anyone know him very well? If Battler were the single unexpected element on the island, he can be expected to be neutral or thought to have been in on the whole thing and in cahoots with the killer... if not the killer himself. He's an unknown -- unless he's the target. Then, making sure he's in the dark might be an overriding concern.

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Renall

They only gain if they are aware that there are real murders happening.

Or if they knew there would be no evidence left aside from people who saw him dead. I am just saying that they can't be discounted, yet. Ideally, the person behind the fake death plot is the one who murdered him and slipped him in.

[Renall]

I just don't see it being of benefit to the culprit. He or she gains everything from faked deaths being assumed fake as long as humanly possible. Kinzo's "death" is guaranteed to make at least some people realize something's wrong. The Death Conspiracy people will realize he wasn't supposed to turn up, and the Fake Twilights conspiracy will realize no one is really supposed to die.

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Renall

I just don't see it being of benefit to the culprit. He or she gains everything from faked deaths being assumed fake as long as humanly possible. Kinzo's "death" is guaranteed to make at least some people realize something's wrong. The Death Conspiracy people will realize he wasn't supposed to turn up, and the Fake Twilights conspiracy will realize no one is really supposed to die.

I already said, people who think the deaths are real will just think he is really dead and those in the fake death plot will likely think it is not a real body.

[Renall]

Who prepared the fake Kinzo corpse? How'd they know about his polydactyly? Unless a fake corpse was prepped by the faking team, surely they'd know there was no Fake Kinzo Corpse Prop.