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Old 2010-04-28, 17:53   Link #9501
Tyabann
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If people die because of Battler's sin... but all the murders were originally supposed to be fake... then we definitely have at least two factions here, probably three (or more).

Logical conclusion theory time:

Faction 1) The fake murderers, also the people behind the Beatrice letters. Probably mostly composed of the servants. Their goal is to pressure the family into setting aside their differences and solving the epitaph. Likely following Kinzo's will.

Faction 2) The real murderers. They take advantage of the fake murders, and probably have control over at least one person from Faction 1. The 'mastermind' belongs to this faction. Their goal is unknown, but I bet it involves money.

Faction 3) Most likely composed of a single person, this is the person who Battler sinned against and also the person responsible for the Rokkenjima Explosion. It's the only event that happens the same way every single game, and also, in the Core arcs, the only event that could constitute a "great number of people dying".

What think, everyone?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marion View Post
Maria is wearing a crown from the black king in chess, which happens to have a cross on it. I think the fact that she's wearing the same crown as the black king has more symbolism than the fact that it also happens to have a cross on it. And Battler doesn't know that Kyrie is his mother, so saying that he just happens to wear crosses just because of her doesn't sound like a logical thread.
I was talking about a) There being a cross in Maria's NAME, not that she wears that crown and b) the symbolic aspects of all four of these people being associated with crosses. I don't mean there's any conscious choice on Battler or Amakusa's part here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marion View Post
Making the connection to the Sumadera's symbol being a cross is null if the future successor isn't even wearing the symbol on her outfit.
A connection to Kyrie, then. Doesn't matter which.
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Old 2010-04-28, 17:54   Link #9502
Renall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
There is, actually, a chance that Maria's diary is a complete and total fabrication, or at least that the grimoire is. It's not a very high chance, because it fits Ange's own memories, not communicated to much of anyone else, but it's source is highly questionable.

Ange got them both from 'Maria's belongings after her death'. But we know the endgame event wiped much of this stuff out - pretty much everything all the way to Kuwadorian. Ange doesn't have any physical memento of Battler other than the hair ornament he got for her. But if the guesthouse, where the guests to the island ended up and where their belongings were located was untouched by the endgame event, there would be no need for Rosa and Maria to escape in Ep2, and Maria's stuff, which was in a room right next to Battler's stuff, would be of much less interest to Ange - she could be wearing Battler's own shirt if she wanted to!

We know that Maria always carried her grimoire in the handbag, though. While a diary may have survived if it has never been on Rokkenjima, and remained in Maria's room when she left, Battler sees Maria pull the grimoire out several times. I can't see a reason why Eva could have possibly recovered Maria's handbag and then still let Ange get her hands on it if she did.
More critically: We know the message bottles are signed "Maria Ushiromiya."

Let's think about this for a second. More or less the only things to allegedly survive the incident are conveniently directly tied to Maria or attributed to her. The message bottles are in her name, but Ange is absolutely convinced she can't have written them because she has Maria's diary which, go figure, just happens to feature a handwriting sample from a person whom she believes is not Maria. And gee, what else survived? Why, Mammon, a stake written about extensively in Maria's grimoire!

Oh and the grimoire seems to suggest that Rosa destroyed Sakutarou. Except wait a second, that's apparently not true? Or at least not the whole truth (if Sakutarou wasn't destroyed, at least one more appears to exist). Did the author of the diary get their facts wrong?

If it's Maria we can attribute a fact discrepancy to bias. But can't we reach another possible conclusion? If Maria's behavior does not square with what is in her diary, then either Maria is an incredibly biased source, or Maria is not the source at all.

More to the point, if we believe the message bottle and ep3-6 author (whoever they are, if they are or are not the same person), Rosa really was like this. But what if this was distorted? Rosa's portrayal is vastly more conflicted in ep1-2; she is depicted being kind almost as much as she is cruel and she is rehabilitated considerably by the epilogue. Then later episodes come along and assassinate her character.

But what if all of that isn't true? Why would anyone do that to Ange? What do they stand to gain? It's certainly very convenient that all of this stuff exists and was given to Ange for her use and digestion. But assuming we can't trust anything in 1998 that relates to Maria, why? What's so important about Maria? Why make it appear to originate from her?

Obviously I would speculate that someone intentionally wanted to create a mysterious person unknown to Ange but whose existence is undeniable because Ange will put all these pieces together and acknowledge the existence of some kind of "Beatrice," whom she believes was connected to Maria. I have no idea why.
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Old 2010-04-28, 17:56   Link #9503
Laserworm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
The letters in the bottles. Battler was there in both stories. They are pretty complex murder mysteries after all. From the way they were described I don't think someone wrote both of them within a week:


Well, it was probably tone of first theories I came up with and doesn't require a lot of thought. It pretty much is given to us. It's a valid theory but for me... disappointing.
The bottles throw off every theory, unless they were written in the six year time span. And then tossed in the water when the person heard Battler was also coming. For all 6 years the person could have been writing this various tales, some with Battler in them, and some where even Ange is on the island too. So they had all these options so no matter what changed some of the stories would still fit and they would only throw those stories out for people to find.

Umineko isn't probably going to have a WTF ending. To me it seems that the closed rooms and the answer are going to be something more on the simple side.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:02   Link #9504
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Remember, 'Beatrice' killed Battler at the end of episode 4. I agree that 'Beatrice' is a red herring culprit in some of the cases but 'Beatrice' is not just one individual person.
I don't see what your problem is here since the bomb is pretty much confirmed.

Battler is alone on the island. So obviously there is no human culprit killing him. And person X was denied. I don't see anyone coming to the island specifically to kill him in a typhoon.

Since he's alone that rules out poison since someone would have to prepare that, and he can't be Beatrice and kill himself. So Beatrice should be the name of an object or something inhuman.

So either the bomb is named Beatrice.

Or if you don't accept that then Since Hurricanes are often named after women he was killed by a Hurricane named Beatrice.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:09   Link #9505
luckyssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Since he's alone that rules out poison since someone would have to prepare that, and he can't be Beatrice and kill himself. So Beatrice should be the name of an object or something inhuman.
Not necessarily, I can answer the 'Who am I?' riddle with a person's name.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:11   Link #9506
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Not necessarily, I can answer the 'Who am I?' riddle with a person's name.
The identity of the person who is Beatrice is irrelevant to that red.

You are all alone on this island. And of course, I am not you. Yet I am here, now, and will kill you.

There you go Beatrice is not human she can only be an inhuman killer. And of course she is not a witch.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:11   Link #9507
Laserworm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Not necessarily, I can answer the 'Who am I?' riddle with a person's name.
How? Explain please.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:21   Link #9508
luckyssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
The identity of the person who is Beatrice is irrelevant to that red.

You are all alone on this island. And of course, I am not you. Yet I am here, now, and will kill you.

There you go Beatrice is not human she can only be an inhuman killer. And of course she is not a witch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
How? Explain please.
Click on 'Asumu Theory' under my signature and is near the bottom under the 'Mysterious Author' spoiler tag.

Here's the end riddle again:
Spoiler for End Riddle:

Please note:
Quote:
Then, before Battler’s eyes, another Beato appeared with a faint form, transparent like a curtain.

The crucified Beato had already lost consciousness. However, the newly-appeared faint Beato quietly looked at me, her eyes expressionless, and spoke.
So, this was Beatrice's heart who is seperate from Beatrice who had lost consciousness. She held Battler just like a mother would do.

Also, neither of those two are the same as the one who appeared earlier in episode 4 on the balcony scene.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:27   Link #9509
Judoh
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That's easy to explain.

Bernkastel's letter explains that Rule X is Beatrice's core. So the bomb, "the disaster", is the core of rule X. It doesn't have to be the author or anything like that at all.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:35   Link #9510
SeagullCrazy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol's Asumu Theory
Beatrice was impaled by Battler’s blue truth and was a completely separate being from the one who said the words. It was Beatrice’s heart, the author of the story.
Beatrice's heart was also mentioned in EP3. She was about to be killed by Eva-Beatrice until Battler started fighting her. How does this connect to the author or Asumu?
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:37   Link #9511
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
But what if all of that isn't true? Why would anyone do that to Ange? What do they stand to gain? It's certainly very convenient that all of this stuff exists and was given to Ange for her use and digestion. But assuming we can't trust anything in 1998 that relates to Maria, why? What's so important about Maria? Why make it appear to originate from her?

Obviously I would speculate that someone intentionally wanted to create a mysterious person unknown to Ange but whose existence is undeniable because Ange will put all these pieces together and acknowledge the existence of some kind of "Beatrice," whom she believes was connected to Maria. I have no idea why.
The problem with such a hypothetical "Ange mystificator" is that:
  • They need to have copious free time to write large amounts of textual material - many novels worth - and a good deal of it needs to have been written well before the incident and extensively researched.
  • They need to have physical access to sealed environments, like dwellings of people declared missing or dead or evidence lockers, and detailed knowledge of physical environments they cannot access.
  • They need to have access to copious amounts of money, if they key-card letters are to be taken as valid evidence.
  • They need to be intimately familiar with life on Rokkenjima.
  • Unless we assume that Ange manufactured a false memory in herself while reading, they need to have knowledge of certain incidents that were a rather private matter between two children.

I.e. like Shkanon, but worse. The amount of effort required quickly approaches that of a full scale countrywide conspiracy theory, which makes the existence of such a person highly dubious -- this creature can only exist as Author outside the environment, and thus studying it is pointless. Author Wanted So. A certain variation, where an existing diary and portions of other documents are used to manufacture the documents Ange experiences is a bit more likely, but still not really well founded. It's basically cheaper to kidnap Ange and torture her directly in a sensory deprivation chamber to get whatever you want.

It does bring to mind a silly idea that Maria did survive... then time-traveled back ten or more years and secretly ended up on Rokkenjima again to kill everyone, which accidentally works around the red, as that would result in the same person with the same name -- very infrequently mentioned in the red, I might add -- present in two places at once. Unfortunately that option is denied by the premise we're working from, because it would be quite amusing.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:42   Link #9512
Laserworm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
It does bring to mind a silly idea that Maria did survive... then time-traveled back ten or more years and secretly ended up on Rokkenjima again to kill everyone, which accidentally works around the red, as that would result in the same person with the same name -- very infrequently mentioned in the red, I might add -- present in two places at once. Unfortunately that option is denied by the premise we're working from, because it would be quite amusing.
In ep 1. Maria, who was in the same, room did not kill them. So at least someone else had to kill the three in the parlor.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:43   Link #9513
luckyssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
Beatrice's heart was also mentioned in EP3. She was about to be killed by Eva-Beatrice until Battler started fighting her. How does this connect to the author or Asumu?
During that scene, what number was on a door near Beatrice's heart? I suppose it's a coincidence that Beatrice's heart appeared next to that number but in my theory it's not a coincidence.

Look, I think it's highly probable that this theory could be totally wrong. I'm not saying I'm right about it. I think it's a long shot actually.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:47   Link #9514
LyricalAura
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
It does bring to mind a silly idea that Maria did survive... then time-traveled back ten or more years and secretly ended up on Rokkenjima again to kill everyone, which accidentally works around the red, as that would result in the same person with the same name -- very infrequently mentioned in the red, I might add -- present in two places at once. Unfortunately that option is denied by the premise we're working from, because it would be quite amusing.
Yep, it's definitely time to finish working out that evil Battler time travel puzzle that I was working on.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:47   Link #9515
Renall
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Well, it could simply be sadism on the part of the writer, with no particular aim in mind but messing with Ange out of cruelty. I'm not entirely clear on when the diary was given to Ange. There was probably time to prepare it, especially if the murders were premeditated. Obviously this really only works with an off-island mastermind who is still alive in 1998.

My point is just: There's something wrong with 1998. Something very amiss. And Ange's opinions are hard to trust. There's a lot more we know that she doesn't. And the mere fact we've never been inside Kuwadorian in 1986 or 1998 is incredibly suspicious. What's there that we weren't allowed to see?

The other possibility is that Maria's diary was genuine, but it was intentionally preserved by someone and possibly altered.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:50   Link #9516
Laserworm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Well, it could simply be sadism on the part of the writer, with no particular aim in mind but messing with Ange out of cruelty. I'm not entirely clear on when the diary was given to Ange. There was probably time to prepare it, especially if the murders were premeditated. Obviously this really only works with an off-island mastermind who is still alive in 1998.

My point is just: There's something wrong with 1998. Something very amiss. And Ange's opinions are hard to trust. There's a lot more we know that she doesn't. And the mere fact we've never been inside Kuwadorian in 1986 or 1998 is incredibly suspicious. What's there that we weren't allowed to see?

The other possibility is that Maria's diary was genuine, but it was intentionally preserved by someone and possibly altered.
What if maybe the person who wrote it just wrote it because they hated Rosa.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:51   Link #9517
SeagullCrazy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
During that scene, what number was on the door that Beatrice's heart was protecting? I suppose it's a coincidence that Beatrice's heart appeared next to that number but in my theory it's not a coincidence.
That's interesting. Also, it's not like I'm against your theory. Since EP1 I had a strange feeling (it's a complete coincidence if anything) that Asumu would have long black hair, which would match Hachijou perfectly.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:52   Link #9518
Judoh
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Are Maria's diary and her grimiore different things?

I think that Maria could have left her Diary at home and Ange or Eva could've inherited it. It's not that farfetched. Then the grimiore she had on the island in her handbag was probably burned.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:52   Link #9519
Tyabann
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
My point is just: There's something wrong with 1998. Something very amiss. And Ange's opinions are hard to trust. There's a lot more we know that she doesn't. And the mere fact we've never been inside Kuwadorian in 1986 or 1998 is incredibly suspicious. What's there that we weren't allowed to see?
Some of the most mysterious stuff in Umineko are things that both the Core Arcs and Ryukishi have never addressed. Because of this, they're things we tend to overlook.

I think it's time we took a more in-depth look at the past and future of Umineko...

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
That's interesting. Also, it's not like I'm against your theory. Since EP1 I had a strange feeling (it's a complete coincidence if anything) that Asumu would have long black hair, which would match Hachijou perfectly.
Hachijou has always struck me as being far too young to secretly be any of the adults in Umineko.

Then again, most of them look younger than their actual ages of 40/50, so...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Are Maria's diary and her grimiore different things?
I don't believe so. The diary is referred to as a "grimiore" several times, if I recall correctly.
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Old 2010-04-28, 18:56   Link #9520
Renall
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Some of the most mysterious stuff in Umineko are things that both the Core Arcs and Ryukishi have never addressed. Because of this, they're things we tend to overlook.
Well, ep4's entire Ange section is basically a giant Ange/Maria pity party. I can't entirely say this isn't what it was meant for in the first place, chronotrig has his own theory as to what it's there for, but isn't it also possible that it's there to distract us?

After all, the goal is to make us feel sympathy for Maria. We certainly were inclined to do that leading up to ep4, which just drives it home. All the while, 1998 is going on around us, but what's really happening? It's pretty suspicious. A lot of things are mentioned casually, like they aren't important. Like the police barricades Ange slips past on Rokkenjima; what's going on with that? Obviously the explosion theory suggests the police did come by and investigate, but why do they think the island is a dangerous area? That sort of thing.

Ange would be inclined to overlook things she doesn't see as important. We as the readers would be inclined to overlook things that do not fit our patterns from our reading of the 1986 sections. It could be intentional misdirection for both the characters (who are not properly equipped to notice clues) and the readers (who are looking at the wrong things).
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