Anime Saimoe Tournament 2012 (Japan)

[ahelo]

not enough love for chihaya ;__;

[Aya Reiko]

Results, I think:

B03

1st 288 Shinobu Oshino @ Ghostory
2nd 220 Shirayuki Hotogi @ Hidan No Aria
3rd 150 Ayame Shaga @ Ben-To

B07

1st 293 Azusa Nakano @ K-On!
2nd 256 Sakurako Oomuro @ Yuru Yuri
3rd 167 Yuno @ Hidamari Sketch

B11

1st 259 Yozora Mikazuki @ Boku Wa Tomodachi Ga Sukunai
2nd 255 Chihaya Ayase @ Chihayafuru
3rd 151 Nazuna @ Hidamari Sketch

[ahelo]

^^ SO CLOSE CHIHAYA, SO CLOSE. She lost by 4 votes. . . 4 VOTES!!! ARRRGGGHHGAHHHH.

[Aya Reiko]

With such a weak showing by Yuno, the outlook doesn't look good for Team Hidamari.

That, and Nanoha now has lone claim to the longest unbeaten streak in the 1st Round (having gone 5-for-5).

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Guesses...

Chris, Ritsu, Minna.

[ion475]

Well...

1. I didn't take into account of Sakurako when I predict a Yuno trolling. Of course, against 2 petankos, Sakurako just can't quite get there...
2. That was quite a rush by Chihaya after being behind ~40 votes the whole time. It's too little, too late, to stop Yozora, though.
3. Oshino won fairly easily as expected.

As usual, I'm 2-1 (Total 15-6). For the upcoming round...

B04: <<乃莉＠ひだまりスケッチ×SP>>
B08: <<るん＠Aチャンネル + smile>>
B12: <<貴月イチカ＠あの夏で待ってる>>

Predicting Nori, Ritsu, Minna.

[Zeroryoko1974]

B04
Nori @ Hidamari Sketch: <<乃莉＠ひだまりスケッチ×SP>> Sae is my least favorite of the main characters
Chris Yukine @ Senki Zesshou Symphogear: <<雪音クリス＠戦姫絶唱シンフォギア>>
Sae @ Hidamari Sketch: <<沙英＠ひだまりスケッチ×SP>>

B08
Run @ A Channel: <<るん＠Aチャンネル + smile>> Run-chan is so <3
Ritsu Tainaka @ K-On!: <<田井中律＠映画 けいおん!>>
Ami Kawashima @ Toradora!: <<川嶋亜美＠とらドラ! 弁当の極意>>

B12
Minna-Dietlinde Wilcke @ Strike Witches: <<ミーナ・ディートリンデ・ヴィルケ＠ストライクウィッチーズ劇場版>> dat ass

Spoiler for dat ass:

Mako Someya @ Saki: <<染谷まこ＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
Ichika Takatsuki @ Ano Natsu De Matteru: <<貴月イチカ＠あの夏で待ってる>>

[Ichuki]

Predictions-Chris, Ami, Minna

Pick- Chris

[Wanderer]

Picks 14-7, Predictions 17-4

B04
Nori @ Hidamari Sketch: <<乃莉＠ひだまりスケッチ×SP>>
Chris Yukine @ Senki Zesshou Symphogear: <<雪音クリス＠戦姫絶唱シンフォギア>>
Sae @ Hidamari Sketch: <<沙英＠ひだまりスケッチ×SP>>

Hidamari faction won't organize and will split, I predict. No pick because I've seen neither show

B08
Run @ A Channel: <<るん＠Aチャンネル + smile>>
Ritsu Tainaka @ K-On!: <<田井中律＠映画 けいおん!>>
Ami Kawashima @ Toradora!: <<川嶋亜美＠とらドラ! 弁当の極意>>

B12
Minna-Dietlinde Wilcke @ Strike Witches: <<ミーナ・ディートリンデ・ヴィルケ＠ストライクウィッチーズ劇場版>>
Mako Someya @ Saki: <<染谷まこ＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
Ichika Takatsuki @ Ano Natsu De Matteru: <<貴月イチカ＠あの夏で待ってる>>

[timbits]

It's time for Ami~chan to shine. I'll be cheering for you all the way!

[TnAdct1]

Originally Posted by Aya Reiko

With such a weak showing by Yuno, the outlook doesn't look good for Team Hidamari.

Personally, I can consider Yuno's failure to advance to be pointed to three things:

1. The pretty much "evil" placement of this year's brackets (face it, I'd vote for either Yuno or Azunyan if I had a chance).

2. Japanese K-On fans waking up after the events of last year's tournament and showing their support this year after the show's very disappointing performance last year.

3. The simple fact that this year, the only real Hidamari Sketch anime was the OAV's (I think the real factor of whether or not Hidamari Sketch has lost its touch will be next year, when it will be eligible again thanks to the show's fourth season).

As for today, I'm seeing B08 as a biggie, as strategy may come into play here.

[Micchi]

Picks: 2-1 (12-9)
Predictions: 2-1 (17-4)

Hidamari mojo has went down the drain.

Picks: Nori, Run, Minna
Predictions: Chris, Ritsu, Minna

I originally went with Nori to top Chris, but I think split votes is the least of her worries right now... B08 is a nice follow-up to Azunyan's match. I'm particularly interested in how Ami would do.

[Team Rocket Elite]

I managed to get the winners right. Sakurako gave Azusa more trouble than I expected. Chihaya nearly beating Yozora was also a bit unexpected.

Another match with fairly weak characters and two of them will split as well. Nori barely edged out Yukine in preliminaries but Sae kills Nori's chances of winning just like she kill Sae's. Several lower midcarders in the second match. She may not be as strong as last year, but I think Run takes this one. Third group might be weaker than the first. Mako might win based on series credit. I get the feeling vote totals aren't going to be very good for these matches.

Votes:
Nori
Tainaka Ritsu
Minna-Dietlinde Wilcke

Predictions:
Yukine Chris
Run
Someya Mako

[Ithekro]

I was going to hope for a repeater champion, but even with Azusa that seems iffy.

Rika isn't as stong as she once was without a miricle.

The only one of them that I thnk is undefeated is Taiga, and I don't know what she can do this time.

[JW1]

A poor showing by Azusa, she couldn't even muster 300 votes despite being under heavy pressure from Sakurako all the way.

[ahelo]

Huhuhuhu Ami has fallen behind badly. Nori on the other hand could have trumped Chris if it wasn't for the split votes. Hidamari isn't exactly an organized faction since Saimoe's been pretty lenient on them for the past 5 years.

[ion475]

A poor showing by Azusa, she couldn't even muster 300 votes despite being under heavy pressure from Sakurako all the way.

And exactly how many girls get pass 300 so far?
Miki = Basically 2-way match (since Aoi is abandoned in favor of Mokkan)
Toki = Weak opponents, and it's Toki...
Akarin = Weak opponents
Mei = Another 2-way match more or less (Rias is weak).

And Sakurako has an ongoing anime that, well, features her fairly heavily last 2 episodes...then there's Yuno who finished with 167 votes also.

[Ichuki]

Results
B04
1st 203 Chris Yukine @ Senki Zesshou Symphogear
2nd 151 Nori @ Hidamari Sketch
3rd 68 Sae @ Hidamari Sketch

B08
1st 190 Run @ A Channel
2nd 185 Ritsu Tainaka @ K-On!
3rd 121 Ami Kawashima @ Toradora!

B12
1st 222 Minna-Dietlinde Wilcke @ Strike Witches
2nd 140 Ichika Takatsuki @ Ano Natsu De Matteru
3rd 94 Mako Someya @ Saki

Judging by current results Ritsu has the most poor showing K-On wise

[JW1]

Originally Posted by ion475

And exactly how many girls get pass 300 so far?
Miki = Basically 2-way match (since Aoi is abandoned in favor of Mokkan)
Toki = Weak opponents, and it's Toki...
Akarin = Weak opponents
Mei = Another 2-way match more or less (Rias is weak).

And Sakurako has an ongoing anime that, well, features her fairly heavily last 2 episodes...then there's Yuno who finished with 167 votes also.

I'm struggling to see how these points contradict my comment. Your equation Toki=weak opponents, for example, seems to suggest that you think that weak opponents = more votes? To me, that seems counterintuitive. I would have thought that a strong character facing weak opponents would tend to gather fewer votes, since people that might be inclined to vote for that character would look at the vote totals and think "she's going to win anyway, I won't bother getting a code". You on the other hand seem to be suggesting that there's a pool of people out there who vote for the leader simply because she's leading? Kind of the opposite of voting for the underdog?

[ion475]

I'm struggling to see how these points contradict my comment. Your equation Toki=weak opponents, for example, seems to suggest that you think that weak opponents = more votes? To me, that seems counterintuitive. I would have thought that a strong character facing weak opponents would tend to gather fewer votes, since people that might be inclined to vote for that character would look at the vote totals and think "she's going to win anyway, I won't bother getting a code". You on the other hand seem to be suggesting that there's a pool of people out there who vote for the leader simply because she's leading? Kind of the opposite of voting for the underdog?

What you said is partially true. Just look the amount of vote Akarin got and Toki got. Percentage wise it's not a huge difference (Toki got ~1% more vote). One thing you have to realized, however, is there's no "given win". Just b/c a girl is a lot stronger than the other 2, doesn't mean people will just ignored the match, especially when assassination can happen...

However, you also have to factor in not just the match itself, but other matches that are going on the same day. In Toki's case, there's the intense Mei-Ayano match that bump up the total # of votes for that day.

As far as result...
1. Tracker failed as usual. It showed Run losing by 20 but she ends up winning by 5...
1b. On side note, K-On fan voting against Ritsu just so there's no split b/t her and Azu-nyan against Akarin?
2. The Hidamari split hurts badly for both Nori and Sae. Toki will destroy whoever winning the group anyway...
3. Minna wins easily as expected...

With the (well, slightly) upset by Run, I'm 1-2 for today, total 16-8 (aka back to my normal 66.67% average) before our first break.

[Aya Reiko]

Hidamari is doomed this year, aren't they?

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I'll make my guesses tomorrow.