The chinese side is getting pretty worked up with the nanjo incident as well
Remember the game we played before, CWA? EPX
Red words does not mean 'Absolute' in a wide-ranged view
Spoiler for EP3:
For ex:
If I say: A was dead and B was not killed by A
It's pretty much saying nothing;
A can be severely hurt by B, B then got killed due to an accident or someone else like C
C is the one who gave A the deathblow
Or in Nanjo's case; E-Beatrice can make her life easier just by stating: Nanjo was not killed by any human beings
Or in other words, here's my theory:
Judging the possibility, locations of the bodies and motives
I'd say the only people who were able to assault Nanjo, were the people who got involved in the main hall incident: Rudolf, Hideyoshi and Kyrie
Because:
-Statements in red does not have a time limit, therefore we can say what the red stated was talked about in any part of the time, and this particular part of time can be eliminated through Probatio Diabolica
-The comments which seemed to have made by E-Beatrice in Tips about these 3 caught my attention
Cannot wait, wait, wait until Witch-Hunt is done with ep 4!
Spoiler for Ending Spoilers:
I'm so confused about the three witches. First Beato was against Rika. Then Takano came in and went on Beato's side. Now Takano is all "I command theee Beatrice." Gah.
I have no idea...
I hope the three witches intentions are revealed who is on who's side.
I thought that bit in the tea party was pretty clear, but oh well?
Spoiler:
As for the Nanjo 15 / 3 bit, the obvious conclusion is that someone included in the death count killed him. If anyone who appeared to be killed inside the mansion actually survived, they would have a chance to kill Nanjo. That whoever killed Nanjo later died as well is mandated in red, but that's correct that a window of time does exist in which it could happen.
Cannot wait, wait, wait until Witch-Hunt is done with ep 4!
Spoiler for Ending Spoilers:
I'm so confused about the three witches. First Beato was against Rika. Then Takano came in and went on Beato's side. Now Takano is all "I command theee Beatrice." Gah.
I have no idea...
I hope the three witches intentions are revealed who is on who's side.
I suggest calling them by their proper names... since they technically aren't the same characters from Higurashi.
Nice show Nadeor . Yes the prime suspects are Kyrie, Rudolf or Hideyoshi. Looking through Ep.3 Again and guess what Ronove did NOT confrim their deaths in red. Leaving the possibility of fakes to be possible. None of them could survie the wounds they've received though, even a stomach wound is lethal, but you die from blood lost rather than any critical injuries. I say Hideyoshi is a prime suspect here; his executed tips is as such; How careless, he was still living...
Spoiler for Here is my theory for why the deaths are random:
13 must die to complete the cermony. 18 people are on this island. Thus, 5 people will be left alive. However, if Ange wasn't sick, they would be 19 people on the island. My theory says that that there are 6 persons operating together to kill according to the epitath. But since Ange is missing, one of the epitath murders must also be killed to complete the cermony. According to this theory, 6 people aim to murder as in the epitath but at the same time aim to survive thus mostly breaking ther co-operation, creating a situation where the murders happen randomly.
Spoiler for reply:
Good point about Ange, if the murderer(s) were planning it all well in advance, they must have counted her too. I don't really agree there are six murderers, at least not in every episode. It's just too much. That said I had an interesting thought regarding ep.1 - if we assume the group of murderers includes someone (or all) of Nanjo, Kumasawa and Genji who die in the last twilights then it would have been really easy to fake their deaths and then kill Battler, Natsuhi and the rest as sacrifices for the actual last twilights. Why? Well, they had the bodies of the other victims to choose from, it;s said that they were recognized just by the clothes they were wearing. Another very suspicious point about Nanjo, IMO. If it was the work of another killer, what's the point of mutilating the bodies that much? Seems to me everyone is thinking along the lines of "one of the first twilight murders were faked" but I think this is a possibility, too. Of course, it could be both.
The problem with a group of six killers is that it should either include Kanon and/or Shannon who seem very much reluctant to kill respectively Jessica and George, or some members of the family - who have no reason whatsoever to follow some crazy ritual instead of simply killing those who stand between them and the inheritance. And with six people the chance of someone spilling the beans or screwing up during the ritual becomes much greater than if there is one, two or three killers, IMO.
__________________
'The world we live in is always in darkness.'
'Yes, and that is why we seek light.'
Good point about Ange, if the murderer(s) were planning it all well in advance, they must have counted her too. I don't really agree there are six murderers, at least not in every episode. It's just too much. That said I had an interesting thought regarding ep.1 - if we assume the group of murderers includes someone (or all) of Nanjo, Kumasawa and Genji who die in the last twilights then it would have been really easy to fake their deaths and then kill Battler, Natsuhi and the rest as sacrifices for the actual last twilights. Why? Well, they had the bodies of the other victims to choose from, it;s said that they were recognized just by the clothes they were wearing. Another very suspicious point about Nanjo, IMO. If it was the work of another killer, what's the point of mutilating the bodies that much? Seems to me everyone is thinking along the lines of "one of the first twilight murders were faked" but I think this is a possibility, too. Of course, it could be both.
The problem with a group of six killers is that it should either include Kanon and/or Shannon who seem very much reluctant to kill respectively Jessica and George, or some members of the family - who have no reason whatsoever to follow some crazy ritual instead of simply killing those who stand between them and the inheritance. And with six people the chance of someone spilling the beans or screwing up during the ritual becomes much greater than if there is one, two or three killers, IMO.
Spoiler for Are there six murderers?:
Since the epitath murderers seemed to be halted during episode 3, if there are 6 epitath murders most of them died during the first and/or second twilight. The amount doesn't really matter. As long as less than 9, there is a small chance that all of the epitath murders died. being only one, eight of them or whatever. The problem is that there are still some murders carried out that doesn't seem to be commited by Eva. I'm taking about the death of George and Nanjo. It leaves me with four options.
1. During the first and/or second twilight, the only one among the epitath murders that knows how to draw the magic circles died. At least one is left to kill.
2. Person able to draw magic cirles survived. Since the the second twilight was accidently carried out by Eva, he/she/them had no chance to leave a magic circle and thought "Meh, screw the magic circles. Let's just kill!"
3. During the first and/or second twilight, all of the epitath murderers died. The deaths of George and Nanjo were carried out by yet a third killing party. Proberly the dopplerganger.
4. Something else happened and I am wrong, wrong, wrong!
If 3 is correct and there are 6 epitath murders, then the murderers must be six out of Kinzo, Genji, Shannon. Kanon, Gohda, Kumasawa, Rosa and Maria. If you think that Shannon and Kanon are unlikely, then maybe you're right since they don't necessaryly has to be in on it. But then you might think that Maria shouldn't be in on it too. Let's say that Maria is one of the epitath murders without knowing it. Rosa agreed only to help the others if her daugther would be spared. It would explain why Maria ends up as the messager of Beatrice, the epitath murderers, and why she is so sure of her survival, since Rosa proberly told her about what would happen in advance and ensured her safety, telling her that there was nothing to be afraid of.
Hmm...the six murderers theory does sound quite possible
and that might explain why Eva hated Ange for not being in the meeting; Causing everything to go wrong, resulting in the death of Hideyoshi and George
Here's my theory;
Spoiler for Theory:
Let's take a look back on EP1 and EP2;
If I were to say, the keypoint to these murders are determine by the first twilight
EP1 - 4 Ushiromiyans and 2 servants
EP2 - All Ushiromiyans
EP3 - 5 servants + 1 Ushiromiyan
Noticed anything yet?
Notice how there were no servants left alive in EP3 after the first twilight
And let's forget about E-Beatrice for now...
Why are there no ceremonial killings in EP3?
Remember EP1 and 2? The first twilights in these two chapters were both quite 'creative'
Setting up the garage in EP1 and preparing the Halloween Feast in EP2 both requires a lot of man-powered work
And also, one major difference: Is the killer of EP3 retarded or something? Why did he/she prefer choking out of all the rest ways to kill?
First of all the fingerprints will be the evidence for the police after the storm
Second of all, hey! Why is there only stakes as murder weapons in EP1 and 2?
My theory is:
-The Stakes of Purgatory can be fired with a particular instrument
-These 'Instruments' can be only operated by specially trained people, in this case the servants.
-EP1 and EP2 both had servants 'left-over' from the first twilight, therefore they are able to operate the stakes later on
-Judging by the methods of murdering Maria, Krauss and Natsuhi, I'd say that the murderer was quite close to the victims when he/she assaulted them
-If I was a servant and a murderer, I would keep the stakes and the instruments together. The murderer in EP3 DID found both the stakes and instruments, but he/she did not know how to operate it (NOOB!). Therefore he/she had to do it some other way possible, so he/she chose choking, and then stab in the stakes. That's why E-Beatrcie commented in TIPS; "Stabbing the corpse?"
However I was not sure of the Nanjo incident and the Main hall incident
I would say the first twilight is a specially made "Schromdinger's cat box"
Since in this case, we have lots of different combinations for the first twilight
and the first twilight will determine the rest of the twilights
Hmm...the six murderers theory does sound quite possible
and that might explain why Eva hated Ange for not being in the meeting; Causing everything to go wrong, resulting in the death of Hideyoshi and George
Here's my theory;
Spoiler for Theory:
Let's take a look back on EP1 and EP2;
If I were to say, the keypoint to these murders are determine by the first twilight
EP1 - 4 Ushiromiyans and 2 servants
EP2 - All Ushiromiyans
EP3 - All Servants
Noticed anything yet?
Notice how there were no servants left alive in EP3 after the first twilight
And let's forget about E-Beatrice for now...
Why are there no ceremonial killings in EP3?
Remember EP1 and 2? The first twilights in these two chapters were both quite 'creative'
Setting up the garage in EP1 and preparing the Halloween Feast in EP2 both requires a lot of man-powered work
And also, one major difference: Is the killer of EP3 retarded or something? Why did he/she prefer choking out of all the rest ways to kill?
First of all the fingerprints will be the evidence for the police after the storm
Second of all, hey! Why is there only stakes to kill in EP1 and 2?
My theory is:
-The Stakes of Purgatory can be fired with a particular instrument
-These 'Instruments' can be only operated by specially trained people, in this case the servants.
-EP1 and EP2 both had servants 'left-over' from the first twilight, therefore they are able to operate the stakes later on
-Judging by the methods of murdering Maria, Krauss and Natsuhi, I'd say that the murderer was quite close to the victims when he/she assaulted them
-If I was a servant and a murderer, I would keep the stakes and the instruments together. The murderer in EP3 DID found both the stakes and instruments, but he/she did not know how to operate it (NOOB!). Therefore he/she had to do it some other way possible, so he/she chose choking, and then stab in the stakes. That's why E-Beatrcie commented in TIPS; "Stabbing the corpse?"
However I was not sure of the Nanjo incident and the Main hall incident
I would say the first twilight is a specially made "Schromdinger's cat box"
Since in this case, we have lots of different combinations for the first twilight
and the first twilight will determine the rest of the twilights
That sounds really accurate.
I'd like to see if it's right.
Is the killer of EP3 retarded or something? Why did he/she prefer choking out of all the rest ways to kill?
Because it's a relatively quiet way to kill maybe? The fingerprints are hardly an issue if the murderer(s) was/were planning to kill everyone and then tamper with the evidence. In all the episodes, the killers don't seem concerned about the police at all. That said, I agree it's very likely the killer of Krauss and Natsuhi among others, to be different than the stake killer(s) we know and love from previous episodes. Assuming this killer found the stakes, I really don't see why he should bother stabbing them in the dead bodies. First, the apparatus for shooting the stakes is probably difficult to carry concealed or at least a bit risky. Second, unlike us readers, the victims don't have knowledge of the previous episodes and they would freak out even if the murders are carried out with no gouging at all or at least gouging with soem other instrument without leaving stakes in place. It all just seems too much trouble for a killer who is not occult-minded and presumably learned about the stakes only after kiling the original culprit(s).
Also, if there are six or at least an organized group of several murderers which includes few or all the servants, one asks themselves how the new murderer managed to kill them all exactly at the time when they should be raring to go on their own killing streak. And to achieve that, plus a locked room mystery without anyone noticing a thing. What if only two of the servants are "wolves", they attacked someone who managed to defeat them, then this someone suspects all all servants and promptly disposes them while they are sleeping and kills Kinzo for good measure too? This scenario could work even with one servant, if the victim is paranoid and ruthless enough.
__________________
'The world we live in is always in darkness.'
'Yes, and that is why we seek light.'
This can be useful to help us evaluate the murders upto ep2
Spoiler for Murders:
Let's concentrate on the way people died and the uses of the stakes.
Ep.1: We all know that First Twilight+Kinzo+Nanjo+Genji+Kumasawa's faces were damaged, of course giving rise to the possibility of fakes. More importantly Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo's faces were destroyed. I have an odd feeling that they were part of something. Needless to say Ep. 1 is the most obscured because of the lack of red we're given. Not to mention there's alot of finger to point.
EP.2: Concentrating on Nanjo and Kumasawa's deaths, like in Ep.3 they were staked after they were killed, a hint that someone other than the servants killed them. However their corpses were discovered while Rosa was under Battler's supervision. The question here lies of course is why would the servants stake them? Also let's look at the letters and how they help us in terms of identitfying the murderer. 1&3 are signed while 2&4 are not. Perhaps this is a hint that somewhere along the nights something happened with the two forces? #3 was was signed, I have an feeling its Rosa who made 1&3 (It's a little obvious).
I think you got something there Nadeor, but the thing that bugs me is where would the alternative murderer find the stakes?
Thx, that was just something I noticed when I saw the TIPS after EP3 first twilight
(Darn I was expecting something better, like bodies completely cut off and maybe sewed on to one another's? XD)
Spoiler for 2nd Theory; Why using Stakes over others:
I thought about this long ago and came up with a theory about it
Thx to CWA for bringing up the topic so I can share it with you guys;
This is quite simple, let's take a minute and go back to EP1
When Battler and the gang discovered Eva and Hideyoshi's dead bodies, they were almost certain of a magical killing because of the spell circles and also; the stakes
So there you go, purpose; To confuse the others that this is done by a witch
In EP3 Ronove warned Beatrice and Eva-Beatrice a couple of times about a gun has the properties of 'anti-fantasy', therefore it is a taboo to the witches
And, if people in EP1 and EP2 were killed ratherly, by Winchester shots instead of stakes, what the hell? Yeah right, like I'm gonna believe a witch did that! Anyone can use guns!
If I'm the killer, I would choose the stakes above all, but I will have to prepare something else to kill the victims first and then, stab their bodies with the stakes
Cause the chance of them surviving the seventh and eigthth twilight with only the stakes is almost 100%...I can live without my legs and feet, lol!
Spoiler for theory 3; Alternative murderer & the stakes:
Although I can simply leave the Probatio Diabolica with this,
I think I might have got an idea of what this is about
This one is actually quite simple
I looked back to EP2, and noticed; When Gumasawa and Nanjo's bodies were found in the garden, they had stakes on them already
However, what we have saw was, Zombie Kanon came back and ate their brains (Wrong XD)
The stakes were not pierced into their bodies at that time
Reflect back; Their bodies disappeared only because, they have no stakes pierced onto them
Why not? Why make them disappear? That would be a drag and wouldn't it be better if I can just stab the stakes in while the servants were on their way to Rosa?
So here's my theory:
The stakes were simply 'found' by the alternative murderer. The transition of stakes is the 'coincidence' part of this story. It is at somewhere only obvious to a certain group of people.
Now continue back on; The reason of why they disappeared, was that either Gumasawa, or Nanjo, is the REAL Murderer!
However, the real murderer was assaulted by the alternative, along with one more, which was considered 'collateral damage' XD
The alternative murderer, however, found no stakes with him/her at the moment, so he/she had to hide the bodies first, and complete the killing later.
Shannon and Genji, in this case, are the most suspicious
It would be stupid to hide the stakes in the servants' room
So I would say...the chapel, where the first twilight took place, might be one of the possible hiding places for the stakes
Since usually, no one would dare enter because of Kinzo
and also, after the first twilight, they locked the place up to protect the scene
This also explains why the 3 were assaulted when they went to retrieve the keys from Natsuhi's body;
The murderer was getting the stakes and happened to bump into them
So the murderer decided to kill them, and chased the 3 all the way back to the building
Spoiler for theory 4: Nadeor's theory of the truth behind Umineko:
I got the idea from 70864, when I translated his work of "Umineko EPX"
After EP3, I had a feeling of this could actually be a theory...
Thesis statement: There is more than one set of Main Building on the island
Think about it, in some cases we are stuck with the key-chamber quandary
like the second twilight of EP2
So what if, let's say; There are two main buildings and guest hotels on the island
These two buildings exist on the opposite end of the island, and no one would know about this without a compass
That explains why the shrine was 'gone'; It's not 'gone', it's still there, only at the opposite side of the island
Beato did not state in red about how many buildings are there on the island, in total
because Battler was too 'Bright' to think about such an unplausible idea
However I have no evidence, and neither can we get any from the game;
The statements in red did not specify the time and locations, therefore they are useless including to Probatio Diabolica
=====================================
Also, I would like to do a little but big invertion of chessboard
Judging by Beato's behavior in EP3, I'd say she actually did turn good for a while
This was all because of Virgillia joined the game, she instructed Beatrice back onto the good side
However, Beatrice might hold something even more dreadful
A secret that's not to be told; She shared this with Virgillia when they defeated Eva-Beatrice, and Virgillia decided for Battler's good, they had to lie to him.
That's why they turned bad all of a sudden near the end of EP3
2009-01-17, 13:08
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