[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Tearing off someone's face with what is probably some kind of power sander isn't bloody?

Not if there was no power sander and their faces weren't torn off to begin with.

Nobody mentioned noticing a void in the blood splatter in the shed, which there would have been if somebody had been standing there holding the sander or whatever. There also wasn't enough of a mess in the dining room to support the damage being done there.

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

What about a raincoat? They're never explicitly mentioned, but I find it hard to believe someone considering murder wouldn't have thought of one.

Kanon had some kind of raincoat briefly in EP6, just before he evaporated from the guest room closet. I don't think one was ever mentioned prior to that, though.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Unless the wounds are just covered in blood and no one tries to poke around in there...

Plus, we can't really be sure about the range the shots were fired at. If someone is a good enough shot, it shouldn't be impossible to hit someone in the chest from across the room, even with a sawed off.

Well, always maintaining at least 3 meter distance would be enough so that you would need actually examining the crime scene to see it.

Which, incidentally, Nanjo never seems to do.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Well, always maintaining at least 3 meter distance would be enough so that you would need actually examining the crime scene to see it.

Which, incidentally, Nanjo never seems to do.

Nanjo's job is just to find out whether they can still be helped or not, not to discover the criminal. That said, Nanjo's plenty suspicious.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Tearing off someone's face with what is probably some kind of power sander isn't bloody?

Maybe they're being really careful.

Although that brings up another critical thing I forgot about: Noise. If anybody's using a gun, it ought to be loud enough that anyone in the same building should hear it. The storm isn't that loud. Same with pretty much anything else that could be noisy. That's why I'm thinking there's either a gun we don't know about (silenced handgun?), or they're using something like a sledgehammer or other melee weapon to cause the damage.

The corpses in the chapel in ep2 could perhaps be cut open with the cleaver we happen to know exists (Kanon used it in ep1, Battler uses it in ep4). I want to think all the murder weapons have been right in front of our faces all along, but it's hard to say that about the guns when the Winchesters seem like they ought to be messy, noisy, and inaccurate.

What about a raincoat? They're never explicitly mentioned, but I find it hard to believe someone considering murder wouldn't have thought of one.

Somebody's gotta have a raincoat. It would be unsuspicious (at least before it was covered in blood). Strange they haven't been mentioned much.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

Although that brings up another critical thing I forgot about: Noise. If anybody's using a gun, it ought to be loud enough that anyone in the same building should hear it. The storm isn't that loud. Same with pretty much anything else that could be noisy. That's why I'm thinking there's either a gun we don't know about (silenced handgun?), or they're using something like a sledgehammer or other melee weapon to cause the damage.

Multiple levels of thick and heavy doors creating air pockets and thick walls are good against many noises, depending on the construction methods of a particular building. Brick walls specifically drown out more noise than most other kinds, dropping the noise down to below the level of the rain and thunder background after about three-four layers. I.e. 2-3 rooms away and you're safe. Concrete panels or wood which most of us are more used to are far less soundproof by default.

Guesthouse may be an exception in terms of construction methods if Erika can listen for breathing through a wall.

[ijriims]

Based on what I read, when Rudolf saw Eva-Beatrice, he seemed to decide he was to avenge for Rosa.

Let me propose what happened for 4th to 6th twilight:

Kyrie found Hideyoshi's cigarette butt when they were checked the rooms.

Kyrie thought that Hideyoshi was lying about Eva's presence during the time Rosa and Maria were killed.

Combined with the found loaded shotgun on Rosa's body, Kyrie thought that Eva was the one who killed the both.

She told Rudolf that she wanted to take food from the mansion, she did not tell him about the cigarette butt yet. She wanted to isolate Hideyoshi and ask him about this matter.

They went to the mansion, after Kyrie taking the rifle from Hideyoshi (since Hideyoshi was responsible for carrying the food), then Kyrie revealed that she knew that Eva was not in the house during the time Rosa and Maria were killed. And she hypothesized that they both solved the epitaph, they got into the quarrel over the gold and Eva accidentally killed Rosa. Since Maria witnessed the whole incident, out of fear and in panic, Eva strangled Maria as well.

Hideyoshi asked for forgiveness for Eva, he said that it was just an accident. Rudolf said he would not forgive Eva and he would expose the killing to the police. Hideyoshi threw the cargo of food at Rudolf and took the shotgun from him, pointing at his head. Kyrie also raised her rifle at Hideyoshi. Kyrie and Rudolf told Hideyoshi to pull down the shotgun.

Out of fear, Hideyoshi accidentally pulled the trigger and shot Rudolf at head. Kyrie also fired the bullet at Hideyoshi's chest. Hideyoshi was down.

Kyrie went to check Rudolf's body. When she rose up, Hideyoshi fired the shotgun on the ground, hitting Kyrie's stomach. And then he perished.

For the staking part, well, it depends on whom you believe got hold of the stakes....

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Multiple levels of thick and heavy doors creating air pockets and thick walls are good against many noises, depending on the construction methods of a particular building. Brick walls specifically drown out more noise than most other kinds, dropping the noise down to below the level of the rain and thunder background after about three-four layers. I.e. 2-3 rooms away and you're safe. Concrete panels or wood which most of us are more used to are far less soundproof by default.

Guesthouse may be an exception in terms of construction methods if Erika can listen for breathing through a wall.

The 1895 Winchester is a reasonably loud gun (though not as loud as the sound effect in-game might suggest). It's also a lever-action, which means it's ejecting after every shot. I seriously doubt somebody wouldn't have heard that. However, other than in ep1 when they overhear the gun going off in the foyer from the parlor, we can't actually be sure a Winchester was ever actually used to shoot at anyone.

There's also the simple practical problem of using an unsilenced rifle to covertly murder someone. Not even the ballsiest killer would do that if they had any quieter method available to them. Unless they can claim to know exactly where everyone is at all times and that they know no one will overhear them. Sounds too risky to me.

If there exists some means to silence or dampen the sound of a sawed-off 1895 I'd be interested to hear it.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Judoh

Stake? What stake? I don't see a stake. All I see is fake blood.

Oh, come on.

Battler makes several references to the stakes and even holds one in Ep2. They're clearly real.

Originally Posted by Judoh

Really? I like it a lot. And I think him being a Christie fan supports it.

A "narrative coincidence" would be things happening "because the plot says so", not because they make any real sense. It's bad writing.

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Not if there was no power sander and their faces weren't torn off to begin with.

I still have trouble accepting this. Battler clearly sees all their faces, and although he can be fooled by, say, a body with a (faked) stake stuck in its back, I don't see him being tricked by expensive, hard-to-both-come-by-and-apply-properly makeup.

Originally Posted by Renall

That's why I'm thinking there's either a gun we don't know about (silenced handgun?), or they're using something like a sledgehammer or other melee weapon to cause the damage.

I'm thinking this. Natsuhi's wound in Ep1 is obviously not made by the gun she's holding. Too clean.

The culprit probably removed the silencer to draw out the other four.

Originally Posted by Oliver

Guesthouse may be an exception in terms of construction methods if Erika can listen for breathing through a wall.

I'm still not sure that actually happened. It's too stupid to be real.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

I'm still not sure that actually happened. It's too stupid to be real.

As I've suggested, it's theoretically possible, which allows Lambda to permissively accept it as a red when proposed by Erika and Dlanor. The GM is within his or her rights to declare certain things, and Lambda was clearly doing it to spice the game up, or just to screw over Natsuhi and Beatrice.

I don't think Erika really did it either (if she was even there to really do it), but I can accept that maybe someone somewhere could. Ep5's GM simply considered that valid to accept a red.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

The 1895 Winchester is a reasonably loud gun (though not as loud as the sound effect in-game might suggest). It's also a lever-action, which means it's ejecting after every shot. I seriously doubt somebody wouldn't have heard that. However, other than in ep1 when they overhear the gun going off in the foyer from the parlor, we can't actually be sure a Winchester was ever actually used to shoot at anyone.

There's also the simple practical problem of using an unsilenced rifle to covertly murder someone. Not even the ballsiest killer would do that if they had any quieter method available to them. Unless they can claim to know exactly where everyone is at all times and that they know no one will overhear them. Sounds too risky to me.

If there exists some means to silence or dampen the sound of a sawed-off 1895 I'd be interested to hear it.

Spoiler for size:

Well, in EP3, there are no problems. Everyone is killed far away from the guesthouse except Krauss and Natsuhi, who are strangled. The same goes for EP4, if Battler's perspective is the only reliable one.

Spoiler for EP1:

In EP1, there were no survivors in the mansion after the first twilight, as far as we know, so that works out no matter what the weapon.

Second twilight, we hear that "The distance from the kitchen to the parlor wasn't that large, so Genji had gone and come back by himself, but the guest room was a little farther away. Natsuhi had warned him unnecessarily not to be alone, and just now, Nanjo had also admonished him, saying that it would be better if he held a little more concern for his safety. Kanon accompanied Genji..." So, if it was a far enough walk that Genji felt he needed someone to go with him, it's very possible that a gunshot within the guestroom (with the door closed and the TV on) wouldn't have been heard from the parlor or the kitchen, or would have been mistaken for thunder.

Fourth-sixth, they were up in Kinzo's study, which probably would have masked the sound down in the parlor splendidly. No problem there.

Then Natsuhi, and they did hear that (possibly).

EP2's first twilight was in the chapel, so no possible problem there. Second twilight was far distant from anyone else at the time, Natsuhi's room is a long ways away from the parlor, and Nanjo's group could have been killed anywhere.

I think that covers most of the question arcs, though I skimmed over a few places. It's definitely possible for the Winchesters to be the main weapon, at least by sound.

However, I wonder. The "powerful guns" of EP4's opening seem a bit more like what you'd expect a Winchester to do than all those forehead shots in the other games. Maybe there's some kind of bullet or method of weakening the power of a gun like that. It might also have the effect of dulling the noise. This would effectively be the "stake shooter" weapon, though it obviously doesn't literally shoot stakes, just makes a good sized hole for them.

Anyways, I seriously doubt there are any other firearms involved in these murders. It would be a real disappointment if there were, at least to me (unless there's some clue I've missed).

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

A "narrative coincidence" would be things happening "because the plot says so", not because they make any real sense. It's bad writing.

A naturally occurring coincidence would be like this, yes. However, since we're talking about stories that Meta Beatrice spun in order to argue that witches exist, anything that looks like a "coincidence" from a game board perspective is actually a perfectly deliberate move with a reason behind it. That makes it fair game, because we can grasp the reasons by reading Beato's motives. It's no different from a situation where the culprit manipulates a crime scene to mislead the detective.

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

I still have trouble accepting this. Battler clearly sees all their faces, and although he can be fooled by, say, a body with a (faked) stake stuck in its back, I don't see him being tricked by expensive, hard-to-both-come-by-and-apply-properly makeup.

If there were fake stakes, why didn't Kanon use one in EP1 when he faked his death, instead of leaving a stake lying next to his body? Also, Battler's had the opportunity to examine several of the stakes and he didn't notice any such mechanism. Assuming the stakes came as a set, why would only some of them be rigged?

On the other hand, there is evidence that somebody in the family is good at special effects makeup. Jessica's "I'll be a corpse with its head split open" in EP4, for instance. A lot of this stuff can be done with relatively cheap materials, and it's not like Team Beatrice was hurting for cash in any case.

[Renall]

There are lots of ways to accomplish it, just not with a 100-year-old gun model that also happens to have been modified in a way that makes it noisier and flashier. I'd be intensely skeptical of a silencer, suppressor, barrel extension, or low-velocity rounds existing for the Winchesters (they almost certainly don't even make those, let alone the killer having any access to them). The only thing I can think of is a pillow or something, but then you'd have pillows with holes through them and you'd have to shoot point-blank anyway. So either the head-smashing thing is a different weapon, or it's caused after the fact through some means that isn't shooting. Just because Battler hypothesizes that a larger-caliber weapon was used doesn't mean he's right. Especially given the consistency of the head wounds in ep4. That immediately makes me suspect an after-death mutilation. Even if the killer never misses, he or she can't possibly cause the exact same wound to every single victim unless they're already incapacitated.

Also chrono you seem to be forgetting that the killings wouldn't have happened all at once (if they did, they wouldn't have been done with a gun, anyway). Even if no one outside the particular building heard anything, the people inside should have. And let's not forget Natsuhi was inside the mansion all night in ep1 and didn't wake up for any noises, though it's possible she drugged herself to sleep and wouldn't have anyway.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

Also chrono you seem to be forgetting that the killings wouldn't have happened all at once (if they did, they wouldn't have been done with a gun, anyway). Even if no one outside the particular building heard anything, the people inside should have. And let's not forget Natsuhi was inside the mansion all night in ep1 and didn't wake up for any noises, though it's possible she drugged herself to sleep and wouldn't have anyway.

We're talking about a stormy night, with thunder happening all over the place. If a person can sleep through that, they can sleep through a gunshot or two half a mansion away. It really isn't that strange or unlikely. Plus, Natsuhi's room is even upstairs, so she has a floor between her and any gunfire.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

We're talking about a stormy night, with thunder happening all over the place. If a person can sleep through that, they can sleep through a gunshot or two half a mansion away. It really isn't that strange or unlikely.

I don't know if that's really the way it works. When you go to sleep on a stormy night, thunder doesn't generally wake you right? But that doesn't necessarily mean you won't hear other sounds, like someone bumping into furniture, or pounding on a wall or floor, or a door slam, a gunshot, somebody yelling (sure, maybe the killer assassinated all their victims without protest, but how likely is that?). Exactly what would wake a person or rouse their attention is more that the sound is unexpected. In a rainstorm, thunder is an expected sound. Now a gunshot is actually more plausible than most things, as it may be possible for your unconscious mind to mistake something like that for thunder. But still, I'm suspicious if anyone in that FT died of a gunshot at all.

As for Natsuhi's inattention... I think she's a heavy sleeper and she probably took some pills, so it's probable she'd have slept through a carpet bombing. She's not a very reliable source. But the other victims surely would have overheard something...

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

But the other victims surely would have overheard something...

Yeah, but what are they going to do? If Sayo is a good enough shot, it's very possible that she managed to hit 4 people in a row at fairly close range, which is the only tricky part (Gohda was dozing off with his magazine, and wouldn't have put up much of a fight even if he did hear gunshots). We're talking about people possibly in their 40's or 50's who have been arguing constantly for the greater part of a day. We don't know when the murders happened, but they might have been up several hours past midnight. If you've ever done that before, you'd know that you can't just jump up and fight off some murderer who comes in the door swinging a gun Especially if that person was dressed as Shannon for some reason. If I saw that, I'd think I was losing my mind.

...Actually, now I really want to see that.

[Renall]

Meh. I think some kind of drugging or poison is a lot more likely given the patterns in other FTs. It seems like a bad plan for the killer to put faith in his or her gunslinging ability and hope nobody is smart enough to overhear and hide, run away, or call somebody (granted in some episodes the internal lines are cut, but in others they're not, and people may be lying about them being cut at all).

In ep1, Gohda and Shannon are the only isolated victims (and many people think Shannon was possibly the killer, though not necessarily). Rudolf and Kyrie probably would have been together, probably with Rosa and Krauss. It makes much more sense to have drugged all of them than to risk trying to kill them all at once.

Besides, knowing Kyrie and Rudolf, what are the odds one or both of them are packing?

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

Meh. I think some kind of drugging or poison is a lot more likely given the patterns in other FTs. It seems like a bad plan for the killer to put faith in his or her gunslinging ability and hope nobody is smart enough to overhear and hide, run away, or call somebody (granted in some episodes the internal lines are cut, but in others they're not, and people may be lying about them being cut at all).

Well, if Sayo is the killer, she was probably initially planning to kill everyone in the mansion. She would know that Natsuhi is a sound sleeper and wouldn't wake up easily. She'd also know that Gohda isn't likely to do anything proactive unless she makes it really easy for him. So, she just has to take out the 4 people in the dining hall, then sneak up on the rest one by one (I think neither of them would ever dream that Shannon was the killer).

Of course, if Sayo is the only major culprit (or one of two), then she has to be willing to take risks, especially during the first twilight. However, as I've pointed out, all the factors would be in her favor for the EP1 first twilight.

Originally Posted by Renall

Besides, knowing Kyrie and Rudolf, what are the odds one or both of them are packing?

This is Japan, so not that much. Not impossible of course, but at least we players can be reasonably sure that they aren't (no evidence I've seen). Even if they were, all the better to get rid of them soon, when they're at their most tired.

Edit: I think poison is used, but only in the second part of EP3. The Siestas seem to represent killing by methods other than the stakes, so the "shot to the hearts" of Rudolf and Kyrie might mean that they were killed by the poison instead of the gunshot.

[Renall]

It stretches credibility. A lot. I think ep2, ep5, and ep6 are some kind of hint in this respect that perhaps the First Twilight is not a brilliantly-executed multiple murder as it appears, but a mass killing through some form of deception and willing participation (unknowingly, anyway). Killing the incapacitated seems like something that the game has been hinting at. I mean, look at Beatrice's very suspect definition of "instant" death.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

A naturally occurring coincidence would be like this, yes. However, since we're talking about stories that Meta Beatrice spun in order to argue that witches exist, anything that looks like a "coincidence" from a game board perspective is actually a perfectly deliberate move with a reason behind it. That makes it fair game, because we can grasp the reasons by reading Beato's motives. It's no different from a situation where the culprit manipulates a crime scene to mislead the detective.

Things still have to be logically consistent on the game board itself. Remember the catbox thing?

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

If there were fake stakes, why didn't Kanon use one in EP1 when he faked his death, instead of leaving a stake lying next to his body? Also, Battler's had the opportunity to examine several of the stakes and he didn't notice any such mechanism. Assuming the stakes came as a set, why would only some of them be rigged?

To fake deaths, most likely. And who says that Kanon was intending to fake his death?

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

On the other hand, there is evidence that somebody in the family is good at special effects makeup. Jessica's "I'll be a corpse with its head split open" in EP4, for instance. A lot of this stuff can be done with relatively cheap materials, and it's not like Team Beatrice was hurting for cash in any case.

I can't argue with this, but... it REALLY cheapens the horror in retrospect if they actually were all faking those injures, you know?

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

I can't argue with this, but... it REALLY cheapens the horror in retrospect if they actually were all faking those injures, you know?

It also makes Battler's investigation seem pretty shoddy. Unless, of course, Battler only saw people after they actually died and just got so caught up in his certainty of death (which wasn't wrong) that he didn't notice the makeup.

But honestly, even if somebody is that good at makeup, was there really enough for 15 or so people?