[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 3 Banquet of the golden witch

[Blue-kun]

Spoiler:

She claims that all 15 people, besides Jessica, Eva, Battler, are dead AFTER Nanjo dies. Nothing is said about before it.

Spoiler:

Well, there's the loophole I was trying to find. I really should read this thread from the start someday. Thanks for clearing it up, if you what you say holds true then yes, it's possible that either Kyrie or Rudolf murdered Nanjo.

On the other hand, wouldn't it be a bit strange for Kyrie or Rudolf to get up after being injured (at least) and kill Nanjo out of the blue? Also, didn't Battler inspect their corpses and weren't they found where they supposedly died? And who would have killed them after it and why? Did you guys come up with any answer for these questions as well? TIA

[Von Himmel]

Actually, when I read it again, I noticed that she never stated the time of death or which of them were killed first during that scene in red text.

[Kitsu]

Spoiler for Nanjos Death:

I think Blue-kun is right. It would be a little strange, if Kyrie or Rudolph killed him. Even if they were alive, didn't they went with Hideyoshi to corner him for forging an alibi for Eva? Then why would the commit murder themselves? Also I don't think they survived the "showdown" with Hideyoshi, because of above stated reasons. Furthermore why would those two or one of them only appear so late again? Why didn't they went to the guesthouse after surviving and tried to save Krauss, Natsuhi, Battler and Jessica who were still in danger of geing killed? The only possibility I can think of, is that after the "showdown" with Hideyoshi only Kyrie survived. Heard from the gold of Hideyoshi (who may knew it) went to check it, got crazy to and we have to greedy witches (Kyrie and Eva) and of course i didn't matter to her if Battler died, after all she said herself that she kind of disliked him (sometimes) because she couldn't give birth to her own son and wasn't so protective about him and afterwards Eva killed her somehow or she died because of an accident. It's kind of made up of thin air. Another possibility is that Nanjo was an accomplice. Kyrie/Rudolph saw George messing with a corpse (that sounds kinda wrong..) and killed him. Or Rudolph/Kyrie shoot him in an accident, everything is possible and then they killed Nanjo because he was an accomplice. Also a very unlikely theory.
So I'm not completely sure but I think both Kyrie and Rudolph died directly in the "showdown".

[Jan-Poo]

Spoiler for episode3:

There is another possible loophole:

- Evabeatrice just makes a list of people that died but she doesn't say anyhting about their current location. That means that one or more of them might have actually died before the events of Rokkenjima took place. this could lead to several speculations: one of the 18 isn't actually on Rokkenjima or there is one or more impostors. The impostor could be the culprit or maybe the impostor has other reasons and the culprit is someone else.

@Kitsu: i think the most common theory is that Hideyoshi survived, he's clearly Eva's accomplice since we know for sure that he definitely covered her once. So basically Rudolf and Kyrie confronted him and they died Hideyoshi then maybe was wounded but somehow he didn't die. This mean that when Eva found him she noticed he wasn't dead. Then we can imagine a lot of things, maybe by faking the mourning Eva actually gave him instructions to kill Nanjo (for whatever reason...), she purposedly wounded Jessica, then Eva and Battler went their own way while in the meantime Hideyoshi killed Nanjo. Now at this point God knows why Hideyoshi died, maybe because of a previous wound? Amazing for him to be able to kill a man while on the verge of death. It is said that Jessica was unable to kill anyone. I kinda refuse the idea that Eva killed him, because Battler was with her the whole time. So at the time of MetaBattler and EvaBeatrice showdown the real Battler should have seen that particular event. Metabattler should be aware of anything that happens to real Battler, else it would be really lame...
This is the most logical explanation i can imagine, however i don't really buy it myself...

[Blue-kun]

Spoiler:

Well, me and my friend had thought about something along those lines sometime ago. As you've said, Eva Beatrice never states that there were ALWAYS <18 people on the island, so the thought of a 19th person being able to get rid of a corpse or something is plausible. That way, Eva Beatrice could state at the end that there were only <18 people on the island at the time and it'd still be possible for a normal human to murder Nanjo, destroying her theory that the only person left who could be the culprit is actually herself, the witch.

Then again, for this to work you'd have to assume that the culprit was already on the island BEFORE the first twilight, because I don't think anyone could get inside after the typhoon started, right? What keeps me from saying this is that Beato says the following when she's debating that theory with Meta Battler:

この六軒島に１９人以上の人間は存在しない!
(In this Rokkenjima 19 or more people don't exist!)

This red sentence comes right after the scene that shows us Rosa meeting Beato and how she died later, etc. The "In this Rokkenjima" did sound weird to us, because we considered that she might've been talking about 1967's Rokkenjima, instead of the "present's". But there is no proof on that regard, so it's nothing more of a theory for now. But the way I see it, that sentence was a play on words on Beato's part to make Battler believe that a 19th person didn't exist.

Well, that's it for now. Hopefully I made myself clear, my English isn't all that good, and I'm afraid some people might not be able to understand what I'm trying to say. But feel free to ask, though! <_>

[Kitsu]

Spoiler for episode 3:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode3:

There is another possible loophole:

- Evabeatrice just makes a list of people that died but she doesn't say anyhting about their current location. That means that one or more of them might have actually died before the events of Rokkenjima took place. this could lead to several speculations: one of the 18 isn't actually on Rokkenjima or there is one or more impostors. The impostor could be the culprit or maybe the impostor has other reasons and the culprit is someone else.

@Kitsu: i think the most common theory is that Hideyoshi survived, he's clearly Eva's accomplice since we know for sure that he definitely covered her once. So basically Rudolf and Kyrie confronted him and they died Hideyoshi then maybe was wounded but somehow he didn't die. This mean that when Eva found him she noticed he wasn't dead. Then we can imagine a lot of things, maybe by faking the mourning Eva actually gave him instructions to kill Nanjo (for whatever reason...), she purposedly wounded Jessica, then Eva and Battler went their own way while in the meantime Hideyoshi killed Nanjo. Now at this point God knows why Hideyoshi died, maybe because of a previous wound? Amazing for him to be able to kill a man while on the verge of death. It is said that Jessica was unable to kill anyone. I kinda refuse the idea that Eva killed him, because Battler was with her the whole time. So at the time of MetaBattler and EvaBeatrice showdown the real Battler should have seen that particular event. Metabattler should be aware of anything that happens to real Battler, else it would be really lame...
This is the most logical explanation i can imagine, however i don't really buy it myself...

The loophole you point out is often used to explain Kinzo is dead, isn't it? I think it would be the most fitting one, because there are some things that bother me about him. Though I don't like it, it would be easy to explain. The corpse of Kinzo was stored in the study and perfumed that would explain that strange smell that was pointed out many times already in the game. Then when the culprit thought the time was right he/she wanted to get rid of the corpse and burned it (don't forget that it would be friggin difficult to burn a corpse, the smell, the transport to the boiler room ect). Maybe Nanjo and Genji were accomplices, because they would have noticed the change of Kinzo. Also...wasn't it said a year before the start of Umineko that Kinzo would only live 3 month longer? I've heard that people on the verge of death were able to escape it for sometime...but a whole year isn't that a bit much?


I thought that too. But wouldn't that a bit easy? It would explain many things. For example how both Krauss and Natsuhi were strangled. (But maybe they were knocked out before...also a possibility) it would be a lot easier for two culprits. But why would Hideyoshi be dead after that? If we belief a little bit of Beatrice version there was a lot of noise (struggling) Hideyoshi had a winchester (two weapons were taken the time Kyrie and Rudolph died) Nanjo would be merciless killed. So it would be strange.

Also I still don't really understand why Eva didn't kill them all the moment she and Jessica were struggling. She could have shot Jessica, kicked Nanjo (martial arts), shoot Battler and then kill Nanjo. Wouldn't that be a lot easier? Maybe her schizophrenia became a dissociative identity disorder and Eva killed them which she first forgot. And the moment Jessica stated she was the culprit she kind of realized that or remembered it thats why she didn't kill them directly. That could also explain her murdering George. Latter escaped to the guest house to see Shannons Corpse. Eva noticed and followed. Seeing her only son for which she would do anything (including killing for the gold and the heir) crying over some maid, maybe even declaring is love (yup to a corpse)she got freaking angry. Her other self, her alter took actions and killed him. Maybe she was sane and did the same thing. That would be my explanation for Georges dead.
Or she was every time Eva-Beatrice did something subconscious, she talked about it with Hideyoshi who reassured her it was all a dream or something like that. Though he knew it was not and tried to forge alibis and protect her. Then after more and more murders happen Eva realize slowly that she really did those things and finally the time Jessica speaks it out loud she first is totally shocked and cries, because she killed George and then snaps completely and kills Battler etc.

Also what about Hideyoshi survives and is later killed by Eva? Eva thinks Hideyoshi is dead and she is totally horrified that she killed her own son (statement above) and then sees Hideyoshi alive, who after killing Nanjo to help Eva (you know less survivors less people might know the truth or Nanjo maybe he figured it out) searched for her ...she isn't the definition of sanity so~ without knowing he is still alive (maybe the faking death Hideyoshi only interacted with the second personality of Eva). He opens the door and want to entry crazy Eva shoots, Battler turns around is totally confused (Why the heck did she just shoot? Or wasn't Ojii-san dead?), crazy Eva kills him....Happy end....

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Kitsu

Spoiler for episode 3:

The loophole you point out is often used to explain Kinzo is dead, isn't it? I think it would be the most fitting one, because there are some things that bother me about him. Though I don't like it, it would be easy to explain. The corpse of Kinzo was stored in the study and perfumed that would explain that strange smell that was pointed out many times already in the game. Then when the culprit thought the time was right he/she wanted to get rid of the corpse and burned it (don't forget that it would be friggin difficult to burn a corpse, the smell, the transport to the boiler room ect). Maybe Nanjo and Genji were accomplices, because they would have noticed the change of Kinzo. Also...wasn't it said a year before the start of Umineko that Kinzo would only live 3 month longer? I've heard that people on the verge of death were able to escape it for sometime...but a whole year isn't that a bit much?


I thought that too. But wouldn't that a bit easy? It would explain many things. For example how both Krauss and Natsuhi were strangled. (But maybe they were knocked out before...also a possibility) it would be a lot easier for two culprits. But why would Hideyoshi be dead after that? If we belief a little bit of Beatrice version there was a lot of noise (struggling) Hideyoshi had a winchester (two weapons were taken the time Kyrie and Rudolph died) Nanjo would be merciless killed. So it would be strange.

Also I still don't really understand why Eva didn't kill them all the moment she and Jessica were struggling. She could have shot Jessica, kicked Nanjo (martial arts), shoot Battler and then kill Nanjo. Wouldn't that be a lot easier? Maybe her schizophrenia became a dissociative identity disorder and Eva killed them which she first forgot. And the moment Jessica stated she was the culprit she kind of realized that or remembered it thats why she didn't kill them directly. That could also explain her murdering George. Latter escaped to the guest house to see Shannons Corpse. Eva noticed and followed. Seeing her only son for which she would do anything (including killing for the gold and the heir) crying over some maid, maybe even declaring is love (yup to a corpse)she got freaking angry. Her other self, her alter took actions and killed him. Maybe she was sane and did the same thing. That would be my explanation for Georges dead.
Or she was every time Eva-Beatrice did something subconscious, she talked about it with Hideyoshi who reassured her it was all a dream or something like that. Though he knew it was not and tried to forge alibis and protect her. Then after more and more murders happen Eva realize slowly that she really did those things and finally the time Jessica speaks it out loud she first is totally shocked and cries, because she killed George and then snaps completely and kills Battler etc.

Also what about Hideyoshi survives and is later killed by Eva? Eva thinks Hideyoshi is dead and she is totally horrified that she killed her own son (statement above) and then sees Hideyoshi alive, who after killing Nanjo to help Eva (you know less survivors less people might know the truth or Nanjo maybe he figured it out) searched for her ...she isn't the definition of sanity so~ without knowing he is still alive (maybe the faking death Hideyoshi only interacted with the second personality of Eva). He opens the door and want to entry crazy Eva shoots, Battler turns around is totally confused (Why the heck did she just shoot? Or wasn't Ojii-san dead?), crazy Eva kills him....Happy end....

Spoiler for episode3:

Easy doesn't necessarily mean improbable. Personally i'm puzzled at the big efforts both Beatrice and Eva Beatrice put on denying the existence of a "19th person". I'd say that more than half of the red truths were used for this very purpose, and we know that red truths are double edged swords, you really shouldn't use them carelessly, so why going that far?
Therefore imho the "19th person" exists, it is just that it isn't a "19th person" more like a "18th person" or who knows maybe it's a "17th person". Imho Beatrice takes advantage of the fact that Battler believes that there are 18 persons on Rokkenjima, but can we really be sure about that?

Anyway i don't really like the reconstruction about Nanjo and Hideyoshi death, beacause if that was the case we need to assume that at the time of Metabattler and Evabeatrice showdown, RealBattler already witnessed the death of Hideyoshi by the hands fo Eva. To think that Metabattler is prevented to know what realbattler is experiencing... that sound horribly lame imho...

[crazysjd89]

Just for the record, I don't think this theory is probable, just possible. There are lots of holes in the reasoning, but I think it's important to take into account all probable cases, and eliminate them as it becomes impossible.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode3:

The coincidence is that even so the killer himself stopped the killings, everything kept going on as if nothing really changed. If i take the pespective of the real culprit at the time the umineko cries i would have thought: whoa! i couldn't have done better than that even if i wanted!

Spoiler for Response:

I still don't think it's that big of a coincidence, since I've pointed out reasons for the killings to continue. Although, I had forgotten that the stakes were embedded in the bodies, as I had thought they had just normal ounds, so that makes it a bit less probable that it was all accidents.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for Episode 3:

There is also a problem with the motivation. Who would go as far as to kill six persons and then give up just because someone found a bunch of gold? If the culprit took the gold for himself that would make sense, but he didn't, unless the culprit is Eva herself, but in that case we cannot say that the culprit stopped the killings.

Spoiler for Response, Higurashi:

Who would go as far as killing several people, faking her death, but then stop just because the body of a little girl wasn't found?

We still don't have all the information about Umineko, most likely. It's possible there is a reason for stopping the killings. One that I can think of off the top of my head is that the culprit truly believes he/she is a witch, and so has to follow the rules, I.E. give up his/her powers. This isn't particular connected to just this theory either, but all of Umineko.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for Episode 3:

There is also Nanjo's death to consider because if we rule out the possibility that he was killed by an unknown person (i.e. the culprit) then we need to imagine that one of the family members (kyrie, hideyoshi, rudolf, natsuhi or krauss) faked his death (for no apparent reason), then he proceeded to kill Nanjo (for no apparent reason) and then he died (for no apparent reason).

Spoiler for Response:

It's possible that Nanjo mistook them for dead, or he claimed them dead even though they were alive for some reason. Either way, Kyrie and Rudolph would become suspicious that he was helping the culprit, and they would kill him to atleast protect Battler. You could also say that they were mentally deteoriating due to blood loss.

Originally Posted by Blue-kun

Spoiler:

On the other hand, wouldn't it be a bit strange for Kyrie or Rudolf to get up after being injured (at least) and kill Nanjo out of the blue? Also, didn't Battler inspect their corpses and weren't they found where they supposedly died? And who would have killed them after it and why? Did you guys come up with any answer for these questions as well? TIA

Spoiler for response:

Read above for answer to the first question. Battler inspected their corpses, once long before they were dead, and Beato inspected them, however, since it is shown by the witch-side, a lot of people consider it an unreliable narrative.

Spoiler for Episode 3:

I do not think that Eva could kill Hideyoshi and George, and I also believe that Hideyoshi truly died when he was shown to, or, if he didn't, I don't think he returned to Eva. I think if he had met Eva, Eva would have cared for him. I doubt she would send him out to continue the killings.

[Kitsu]

Spoiler for episode3:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode3:

Easy doesn't necessarily mean improbable. Personally i'm puzzled at the big efforts both Beatrice and Eva Beatrice put on denying the existence of a "19th person". I'd say that more than half of the red truths were used for this very purpose, and we know that red truths are double edged swords, you really shouldn't use them carelessly, so why going that far?
Therefore imho the "19th person" exists, it is just that it isn't a "19th person" more like a "18th person" or who knows maybe it's a "17th person". Imho Beatrice takes advantage of the fact that Battler believes that there are 18 persons on Rokkenjima, but can we really be sure about that?

Anyway i don't really like the reconstruction about Nanjo and Hideyoshi death, beacause if that was the case we need to assume that at the time of Metabattler and Evabeatrice showdown, RealBattler already witnessed the death of Hideyoshi by the hands fo Eva. To think that Metabattler is prevented to know what realbattler is experiencing... that sound horribly lame imho...

Yes, you are right. Easy doesn't mean 'wrong'...but I really don't like the theory of Hideyoshi being alive or Kinzo being dead. Dunno why though something more complicated and more mysterious would appeal to me more. Maybe RealBattler didn't saw Hideyoshi just heard the shooting turned around was stunned by shooting Eva, is confused didn't see Hideyoshi and then died..more likely is it?

First I thought Beato tried to convince Battler that there wasn't a 19th person so he would give up and believe in her. We saw him struggle to no end because he couldn't accept that someone of his relatives or friends would do something like that. You remember Virgillia saying something about the wind that tries to steal the wanderers cape with force? But after I think the 2 episode that motive don't work anymore...the only reason I can think of might the one that a 19th Person exists and had something to do with the crimes or is even the key to solve the mystery. So if Battler believes there is not such a person he won't be able solve anything

Edit:
@crazysjd89
You seem to forget that Eva in my theory isn't sane and totally out of her mind.

[Haruyan]

Spoiler for loophole:

The only loophole I can think for the 19th person is that Beatrice never states that there aren't more people at any time on the island. More people could've come in after she's state that there's only 18, but IMHO I don't think there is a 19th people.

I think someone started with the 6 of the first twilight, then Eva continues after finding the gold (for whatever reason, Hideyoshi was probably her accomplice, maybe Nanjo too...), and afterwards, the first killer had a confrontation with Eva and Hideyoshi and killed Nanjo.

It's not a very solid theory, but I do believe there is someone else involved, with different motives than Eva. It would also explain George's murder.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by crazysjd89

Spoiler for Response, Higurashi:

Who would go as far as killing several people, faking her death, but then stop just because the body of a little girl wasn't found?

We still don't have all the information about Umineko, most likely. It's possible there is a reason for stopping the killings. One that I can think of off the top of my head is that the culprit truly believes he/she is a witch, and so has to follow the rules, I.E. give up his/her powers. This isn't particular connected to just this theory either, but all of Umineko.

Spoiler for Response:

It's possible that Nanjo mistook them for dead, or he claimed them dead even though they were alive for some reason. Either way, Kyrie and Rudolph would become suspicious that he was helping the culprit, and they would kill him to atleast protect Battler. You could also say that they were mentally deteoriating due to blood loss.

Spoiler for episode3:

Eh good point about the higurashi reference, you got me there. I guess this is a good example of devil proof isn't it? ^^

As for the rest the thing that really makes me skeptical is while i can understand that Eva went crazy for some reason after finding the gold, i really can't see Rudolf and Kyrie going crazy themselves. Both of them are quite cool in their behaviours expecially Kyrie. You need a good reason to make me believe that Kyrie and Rudolf killed Hideyoshi and even a better reason for them to kill george. Messing around a dead body isn't good enough as an excuse. Should your theory be true then we certainly miss a very big piece of the puzzle.

Originally Posted by Kitsu

Spoiler for episode3:

Yes, you are right. Easy doesn't mean 'wrong'...but I really don't like the theory of Hideyoshi being alive or Kinzo being dead. Dunno why though something more complicated and more mysterious would appeal to me more. Maybe RealBattler didn't saw Hideyoshi just heard the shooting turned around was stunned by shooting Eva, is confused didn't see Hideyoshi and then died..more likely is it?

First I thought Beato tried to convince Battler that there wasn't a 19th person so he would give up and believe in her. We saw him struggle to no end because he couldn't accept that someone of his relatives or friends would do something like that. You remember Virgillia saying something about the wind that tries to steal the wanderers cape with force? But after I think the 2 episode that motive don't work anymore...the only reason I can think of might the one that a 19th Person exists and had something to do with the crimes or is even the key to solve the mystery. So if Battler believes there is not such a person he won't be able solve anything

Spoiler for Episode3:

My thoughts exactly and mind that even if i endrose the "19th person" theory i do not think that that alone is the key of the mistery, it's probably just one of the pieces of a bigger puzzle.

[Blue-kun]

Originally Posted by crazysjd89

Spoiler:

It's possible that Nanjo mistook them for dead, or he claimed them dead even though they were alive for some reason. Either way, Kyrie and Rudolph would become suspicious that he was helping the culprit, and they would kill him to atleast protect Battler. You could also say that they were mentally deteoriating due to blood loss.

Spoiler:

Wouldn't that be pushing it a bit? I mean, maybe the events aren't that fresh on my mind, but iirc, Nanjo made his diagnosis when both Rudolf and Kyrie were laying on the floor heavily wounded with the stakes, right? That's basically saying they were pretending to be dead for a while just to listen to Nanjo's diagnosis. Or that they just started to feel better to the point of being able to follow Nanjo's conversation right about the time he gets there.

I'd imagine that if they were really alive and conscious of whatever's happening around them when the group that consisted of Nanjo/Eva/Jessica/Battler/Krauss/etc got there, they'd say something like "Hey I"m alive" or whatever. Not pretend to be dead. Unless the ACTUAL culprit was on that group as well, but I don't see how, since they were locked on the guesthouse and for any of those to go the mansion, kill them, return, and pretend that nothing happened would be somewhat hard.

But again, feel free to digress. I actually read the game not so long ago, but my memory is terri-bad, so I keep forgetting important details here and there :V

[Marion]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Any speculation about Maria's father?

Was it:

Spoiler for maria's father:

- nobody who's been given great importance
Evidence for: The vast majority of males are not present on the island. The laws of probability greatly favor this.
Evidence against: The laws of narrative causality greatly favor Maria's father being someone important.

- Kinzo, Rudolf, Krauss, Battler, or George?
Evidence for: It gives a very good reason to keep the father's identity secret.
Evidence against: SQUICK! Also, Battler's probably too young.

- Kanon:
against: Probably too young.

- Genji?
Evidence for: It gives a weak reason to keep the father's identity secret.
Against: Did Rosa seem to notice Jessica / George's affections for Kanon / Shannon? If she had fallen for a servant, I guess she'd be more likely to notice that.

- Nanjo?
Evidence for: It gives a weak reason to keep the father's identity secret.

- Hideyoshi?
Evidence for: It gives a reason to keep the father's identity secret.

- Gohda?
Evidence against: Mighty big coincidence that Krauss hired him a few years later (though Gohda might have pursued it because of the Ushiromiya name). If he is, Krauss doesn't know about it. (I'd need to review ep. 1 to be sure, but Krauss still counts Gohda as loyal that night. If he knew or suspected, he consider Gohda might be loyal to Maria / Rosa. But I don't remember whether he was concerned about loyalty vs. Kinzo or his siblings.) I don't recall him showing any special interest in Maria. No particular reason to keep his identity secret.
Evidence for: That's why H&E killed Gohda at the first twilight in episode 1. (Shannon was killed because Natsuhi had locked herself in.)

Considering the abundance of evidence against and lack of evidence for it but it provides something, I'm going to start barking up the wrong epileptic tree. Maria's father was definitely Gohda!

Also:

Spoiler for the stakes:

Rosa and Maria were the only characters killed in the second-eighth twilights without getting staked. That suggests their killer was separate and unrelated to the other crimes.

Spoiler for Response to Maria's Father:

1) I REALLY doubt that Kinzo, Rudolph or Krauss fathered Maria. Ryuukushi is known for doing weird things but incest is pushing it just a little bit. Plus George and Battler are WAY too young. Genji and Nanjo are pretty old, Kanon si too young and I doubt Hideyoshi would cheat on Eva, if we think that he would actually protect Eva from being caught as a murderer.

As far as Gohda goes, in episode one we found out he use to work at a hotel as a head chef. But when the hotel closed down it was really NATSUHI who hired him, not Krauss or Kinzo. I kinda doubt Gohda being the father though, because it seems too coincidental that Rosa got Maria from him AND he's employed at Rokkenjima with no one even aware of him.

Plus, why wouldn't he come out with it? Rosa has a reason not to, but Gohda probably wouldn't mind. In episode 3 tips it said that he wanted Kinzo to like him, so maybe admitting to being Maria's father and claiming a place among the family ranks would be a quick start. Plus Rosa never seemed to react a little bit to Gohda's presence. Especially in episode 2 when she sent him out of the parlor, thinking he was a wolf with sheep.

Also, why would Eva and Hideyoshi kill Gohda in epsidoe one on the first Twilight? Is there any real reason to do so?

Spoiler for Response to "the stakes":

If the culprit was following the murders according to the riddle, as it's assumed they are, then there would be no reason to stake them: it doesn't say anything about driving stakes into them at all. It's just coincidental that in episode one it happened to Eva and Hideyoshi - but staking before the 4th Twilight is not necessary, according to what Ronove tells Eva-Beatrice during and after the 2nd Twilight.

[hodil]

I think its bout time for me to post my theory of this. I have not read Episode 4 and after reviewing Ep 1 ~ 3 ... i really have some things that i must say

Spoiler for Ep 3 First twilight:

I think there was a reason why the Killing stopped at the First twilight until Eva-beatrice was born... The reason simply being the Killer was killed =.= First of, How was the chain of locked rooms created? : Kinzo called the servants to his room (For my theory, im using the assumption that whenever Beatrice appears, it means in the Human's view, its actually the culprit.) So since Kinzo was there playing Chess with Beatrice, it would mean that the culprit was in the room.. erm.. duh. So heres the thing :Kinzo was the culprit He killed the servants in a method i cant be sure of. Kihihihi.. even though i am not sure of the method he could have used, it cannot be denied XD "probatio Diabolica!" He then moved the corpses to their positions. Locked them up, draw those circles, place the keys in the room and then head to the boiler room, where he would place the letter and conclude the Chain by heading out the backdoor at the same time creating the illusion that it was closed. However, pertinent to the much debated topic of the nature of the culprit in the game, it is hinted that the culprit killed himself, not by suicide, but possibly by accident. Kinzo -> falls -> incinerated Done! The killings ended in a chain. And by right. should end. Until... Eva found the gold. and got paranoid. However i know this will not address Nanjo's death but could possibly be part of the greater mystery. And why would Kinzo want to follow the Epitagh that he/Beatrice created? To satisfy his insane obsession with Summoning Beatrice till the extent to believing that by following his/her epitagh, the 4 treasures would be presented to him.

On the other hand I have another theory... which would rebut the first theory. This theory views Episode 1~3 as a whole.

Spoiler for Kinzo:

Kinzo was never alive when the game started. At the end of episode 3's plot, when Eva-Beatrice attacked Battler with the web of red truths claiming that there was no escape from this confined box ... i felt like taking on Battler's Opposition or "Dread_of_the_grave" or Pheonix Wright stance. Repeat in red! " All of the mentioned and listed deaths, took place when all the 18 members of the Ushiromiya family including the servants were on this Rokkenjima!" This would mean that there would orginally be 18 people on this island, and all of the 18 would be the Ushiromiya family and servants. However, if the witch cannot repeat this, it simply means : Witch repeats = One of them was the culprit / However, if the witch cannot repeats it = None of the family members or servants was the culprit. Simple Hempel's raven theory. It suggests that one person occupied the person of the "18th person" and is not a Ushiromiya member/Servant. !!! Meaning that Someone they didnt know (could be beato from episode 2) exists While it satisfies the condition of only having 18 people allowed on the island !!! And theres only one person i could think of to be dead since the beginning -Kinzo. Think, in the first, second and third episode. His appearance was very limited, to the extent that only a few people saw him, namely Natsushi, Servants and Battler. This could mean that, Natsushi and the Servants collaborated together to create the appearance that kinzo was still alive oorrrrr... this mysterious "18th person" could be impersonating him! However, i strongly believe it was the former, because, if i can remember carefully.. in the prologue of Episode 2. There was this small scene where Natsushi and Krauss were in a Conversation... "None of them must meet up with Kinzo" One - Kinzo could already have passed away, in order to mantain the discussion on the inheritance in a proper way, they didnt want the siblings to know of his death. Two - Nanjo was called in to make it seem that Kinzo was still alive and he was still attending him. The servants still served Kinzo/Giving him meals to create the impression that he was still alive too. The servants were loyal to Natsushi and Krauss as Furniture Servants of the Ushiromiya family, they are definately loyal to them.

These are all a few theories i have. Umineko is certainly very interesting and i keep coming up with theories whenever i have nothing to do XD. Btw...

Spoiler for Non-humans:

Daaamn i cant believe Eva-beatrice came up with the Orang Utans were not trained to hold guns and kill people crap I mean.. it really is a possibilty that animals can kill.. in fact theres one example.. which resulted in a close room murder too : here

[Jan-Poo]

Spoiler for Episode3:

He he nice theories howeverr rest assured, the non-humans part was denied in red.

Absolutely no factors other than humans participate in this game board!

EvaBeatrice said that to prevent Battler from formulating any theory involving animals and robots. However imho it was a blunder, what are witches then? are they humans, are they not humans? Either answer would end up challenging the fantasy theory. I wonder if Ryukishi didn't think about that too much or if he did it on purpose

Anyway about your first theory i found very improbable that Kinzo fell inside the incinerator by accident and died that way. Even if you call the "devil's proof" the probability is almost zero.

[hodil]

I just noticed this o0 how slow was i...

Spoiler for Kinzo:

I know. that sounds strange even to me. And i felt that it was weird when i heard Battler Hypothesising bout accidents and the conclusion came to it that the witch was playing a game with words and couldnt deny that an accident could probably happened. Kinzo falling down XD silly old man. However... im very interested in the murder weapon. It seems that most of the murder weapons used were defined as either a spear or a gun. This however isnt the main point. The main point lies in the different way of killing. The first twilight (which i believed was commited by someone else) killed them using this spear/gun weapon. However from the Second to eighth twilight onwards which we assume to be done by Eva. They were done in ways like piercing Rosa/Suffocating Maria/Stranggle Krauss and Natsushi. I believe there is a stark contrast in the way they were killed. I conclude there are, 2 Culprits in this game. One was responsible for the first twilight, George's death and Nanjo's death. (the real beatrice) The other was awakened at the 2nd twilight aka Eva responsible for Rosa, maria, krauss, Natsuhi,Rudolph,Kyrie and finally Battler. If u checked the tips u would notice the difference. One group = Killed by a weapon presumed to be a spear or gun. Another group = killed by random methods. By accepting the 2 culprits idea, it is easy to argue how George was killed not by His mom, but by Culprit X. Hideyoshi was killed by Eva's alter ego after triggering her with a slap.

Spoiler for Kyrie and rudolph:

I would give a reason.. i wont accept Rudolph and Kyrie as the culprits.. never accept that! T_T uu~ poor dead people.. we shouldnt defame the dead uu~ well.. lets see.. Umineko is similar to Higurashi... its very possible that the main culprit has been the one acting for ep 1, 2 and partially 3. Its of high possibility that in all these episodes, the main culprit is the same. For someone to have lasted till the eighth twilight and killed Nanjo all without gaining suspicion would be a mean feat and requires much preparation and planning. This would only mean that the person who killed Nanjo was the main culprit. Therefore, if Kyrie/Rudolph killed Nanjo, Kyrie/Rudolph = main culprit = they would be the ones conducting the murders in ep 1 and 2 too. And then explain... why would they be found with their abdomens sliced opened with candies stuffed in it? =)

Spoiler for nonhuman:

Lol yea i noticed. Wont it be amazing if Kinzo had a zoo in his forest which housed killer animals?

[Exilon]

Originally Posted by hodil

Spoiler for Kyrie and rudolph:

I would give a reason.. i wont accept Rudolph and Kyrie as the culprits.. never accept that! T_T uu~ poor dead people.. we shouldnt defame the dead uu~ well.. lets see.. Umineko is similar to Higurashi... its very possible that the main culprit has been the one acting for ep 1, 2 and partially 3. Its of high possibility that in all these episodes, the main culprit is the same. For someone to have lasted till the eighth twilight and killed Nanjo all without gaining suspicion would be a mean feat and requires much preparation and planning. This would only mean that the person who killed Nanjo was the main culprit. Therefore, if Kyrie/Rudolph killed Nanjo, Kyrie/Rudolph = main culprit = they would be the ones conducting the murders in ep 1 and 2 too. And then explain... why would they be found with their abdomens sliced opened with candies stuffed in it? =)

Spoiler:

Your theory is based on the belief that the culprit is always the same throughout the episodes. however, I have to strongly disagree with that. First off, because Umineko has a completely different set of rules than Higurashi - and one of them is believed by many as that there is soemthing that triggers (possibly the gold) one of the members of the family to follow the epitaph.
Secondly, if to you the culprit is always the same, accept a challenge from me: Blame someone of the 18. If you can come up with a theory that makes the culprit always the same person throughout the episodes, I will be able to accept your theory. Otherwise, you can't argue that someone can't be the culprit in episode 3 because it would be impossible for that person to be the culprit in episode 2 - they are different rokkenjimas, so it IS possible. Also, I should remind you that in Higurashi there was a main culprit because that person was so strong - willed that it could make the same thing happen in all worlds. In umineko, we find out that this happened because Lambdadelta gave that person that power. In umineko, I don't think this happens. the only Strong-will you can point right now is the one the adults have to make money. and in fact, that need of money is precisely what probably triggers the twilight murders EVERYTIME.

[hodil]

Originally Posted by Exilon

Spoiler:

Your theory is based on the belief that the culprit is always the same throughout the episodes. however, I have to strongly disagree with that. First off, because Umineko has a completely different set of rules than Higurashi - and one of them is believed by many as that there is soemthing that triggers (possibly the gold) one of the members of the family to follow the epitaph.
Secondly, if to you the culprit is always the same, accept a challenge from me: Blame someone of the 18. If you can come up with a theory that makes the culprit always the same person throughout the episodes, I will be able to accept your theory. Otherwise, you can't argue that someone can't be the culprit in episode 3 because it would be impossible for that person to be the culprit in episode 2 - they are different rokkenjimas, so it IS possible. Also, I should remind you that in Higurashi there was a main culprit because that person was so strong - willed that it could make the same thing happen in all worlds. In umineko, we find out that this happened because Lambdadelta gave that person that power. In umineko, I don't think this happens. the only Strong-will you can point right now is the one the adults have to make money. and in fact, that need of money is precisely what probably triggers the twilight murders EVERYTIME.

Spoiler for reply:

To address your challenge, no real culprit can be set. In fact there was a flaw in the challenge itself. When you addressed the "18", you are refering to the 18 ushiromiya family members that are believed to be on the island at that point of time. Conversely, i do believe that the culprit belonging to this "18" people was not a Ushiromiya family nor a servant. In other words, i believe there was 17 or less ushiromiya/servant on the island to start off with. Therefore i hereby blame the "18th person" that is not a Ushiromiya family member nor a servant. However, there is no support i have for this claim nor is there any evidence agaisnt my claim that a member is dead b4 a game begins. Probatio Diabolica at work here. (there is no red truths agaisnt this theory as of episode 3, but there are red truths that reveal the deaths of the members without having their time of death stated) As i have introduced the possibility of a "new person" to the game, it can be easily used to explain the appearance of beato in Episode 2. In addition, we can have no idea what goals this person has and that the will of this person may far surpass that of the siblings. Like anyone of us would have guess the culprit or learnt of Miyo's past in season 1.

Spoiler for Will-Reply continued:

Lambdadelta shared will to Miyo in Higurashi as seen from Episode 15 kai ending. In Umineko, Episode 3 tea party, Lambdadelta is revealed to have given beatrice the title of "Witch" and many references of "Lending powers" have been made. In other words, if u concluded that a Strong willed person, Miyo, was created because LD gave her powers. Then we can also link that LD gave Beatrice her powers = Beatrice is strong willed. According to the theory in my Reply of having a "new person" being within the 18. This "Strong willed Beatrice" would thus be allowed to exist.

[Jan-Poo]

Spoiler for episode 3:

You are wrong Exilon, we can clearly see in the tea party after episode3 Lambdadelta definitely states that she IS the one behind this whole game, and she is the one that is providing the powers to Beatrice. So there is at least one thing that is both true for Umineko and Higurashi: Lambdadelta is giving powers to the the culrpit so he can "infallibly" reach a certain objective.
The only problem now is to define who or what Beatrice actually is.

I also believe that there's something different between Higurashi and Umineko. Basically i think that this time we won't be able to define rule X, Y, Z because they change everytime. This is hinted by Bernkastel herself when she talks about a maze that is constantly changing. Also Lambdadelta is probably thinking that her previous defeat happened because Bernkastel found those rules, so now she is confident and talks about a perfect chessboard because she thinks that this time Bernkastel won't be able to use the same strategy.

Even so i'm more inclined to believe that while each episode has a different set of killers, there is a common mastermind behind everything. There isn't any need to blame one of the 18. It is possible that there aren't really 18 persons or actually one of the supposed 18 persons isn't actually there and there is a 18th unknown person who is responsible for anything that happens. Also there is a possibility that one of the 18 is actually an impostor.

This is just an example, i don't realy believe it myself, but just imagine that the true Nanjo has been killed before the events described so far and the Nanjo we see is an impostor. If that's the case then FakeNanjo was in a very convenient position, he is also usually one of the last persons to "die" and noone can confirm his death. The fakenanjo theory would also completely dismantle the evabeatrice perfect web, since then she would be talking about "Nanjo" and not the "impostor".

[hodil]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode 3:

You are wrong Exilon, we can clearly see in the tea party after episode3 Lambdadelta definitely states that she IS the one behind this whole game, and she is the one that is providing the powers to Beatrice. So there is at least one thing that is both true for Umineko and Higurashi: Lambdadelta is giving powers to the the culrpit so he can "infallibly" reach a certain objective.
The only problem now is to define who or what Beatrice actually is.

I also believe that there's something different between Higurashi and Umineko. Basically i think that this time we won't be able to define rule X, Y, Z because they change everytime. This is hinted by Bernkastel herself when she talks about a maze that is constantly changing. Also Lambdadelta is probably thinking that her previous defeat happened because Bernkastel found those rules, so now she is confident and talks about a perfect chessboard because she thinks that this time Bernkastel won't be able to use the same strategy.

Even so i'm more inclined to believe that while each episode has a different set of killers, there is a common mastermind behind everything. There isn't any need to blame one of the 18. It is possible that there aren't really 18 persons or actually one of the supposed 18 persons isn't actually there and there is a 18th unknown person who is responsible for anything that happens. Also there is a possibility that one of the 18 is actually an impostor.

This is just an example, i don't realy believe it myself, but just imagine that the true Nanjo has been killed before the events described so far and the Nanjo we see is an impostor. If that's the case then FakeNanjo was in a very convenient position, he is also usually one of the last persons to "die" and noone can confirm his death. The fakenanjo theory would also completely dismantle the evabeatrice perfect web, since then she would be talking about "Nanjo" and not the "impostor".

Spoiler for 18 people:

Yes my whole point. I totally agree that there might be an imposter/uninvited guest. This would sound very familiar to episode 2 and convienient to explain that Beato is Human and has revealed herself in the mansion and that she is the culprit to everything. Many references has been made to suggest that she was involved in the crimes committed, at the 2nd twilight, Jess n Kannon found a letter in her room implying that she is aware of the murders and she might have been involved. Episode 2 could have been a direct anwser from Ryukishi to us but cleverly guised under the rule that Only "18" humans is allowed and therfore Beato ( the 19th person) =/= human. Thus the readers outrule the fact that Beato being a human was the mastermind. Which, would allow Ryukishi to succeed in misleading us into believing that the culprit is one of the "18" neglecting that the culprit might actually have been the human beato!