[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Volcanic]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Spoiler for .:

I don't think you need to accept magic necessarily.
This goes back to what Virgilia said, about technology of the future seeming like magic. For example, some properties of quantum physics seemed so fantastical that even Einstein didn't want to believe in them. For anyone before the last couple centuries, the thought of considering the effects of quantum physics as a rational "science" would be laughable.

Also, if our real universe were a single kakera among many, then it would be almost impossible to prove that fact by definition. For all we know, and will ever know, the existence of "multiple universes" is a simple fact of reality. Also, if these multiple kakera exist, it's a very reasonable Devil's Proof to suggest that "there is some way of traveling between them". Unlike most Devil's Proofs, there's probably a greater likelihood of this statement being correct, judging by the size and complexity of the universe.

In short, simple kakera-switching can fall outside the realm of fantasy and into standard science fiction. The only reason Battler started fighting against fantasy is because he believes that "reason exists in this world". Well, good sci-fi always follows the laws of reason and logic, at least to the limits that they are known at the time of writing.

This is exactly what I thought when I came up with this theory. It would be going away from Ryukishi's norm, but it would work. I doubt it, though.

So.... Whose hand is in Erika's portrait?

Never explained. It could be anyone or nobody, just a metaphor. (I personally like to think it's either Beato or Battler, yes)

[Kaiba]

Alright, a basic theory of mine. I'll be describing how the murders were actually pulled off later, but for now, here is what I suspect to be sort of the background to the story:

Spoiler for General Theory:

Concerning Umineko and its culprit:

The key point that I wish to analyze is the First Twilight of the Second Episode (Happy Halloween and all that). While we’re all naturally shocked with its incredible grotesquery, there is one point which is very strange that no one ever seems to address – the three gold bars lying there on the table stamped with the Ushiromiya seal. We know that from Episode 1, Krauss has to expend considerable effort just to get his hands on one gold bar – yet there are three gold bars just standing there without a care, almost as if the culprit didn’t care for them and the vast wealth they portray. When one thinks about it, there is really only one logical output for those gold bars:

Whomever killed the victims in the First Twilight has already solved the riddle.
However, such a fact is incredibly bizarre. As person X is ruled out through Knox’s rule, whomever killed the culprit knows the riddle but has never bothered to reveal such a fact. From a logical standpoint, this makes no sense – whomever solved the riddle and declared so would be able to gain the honor of being the head of the Ushiromiya family and would be able to access the vast wealth of the gold immediately – for as long as they keep the fact that they solved the riddle secret, they can’t just go and cart out 2000 tons or however large the gold is and thus don’t have as much wealth as they would as if they declared that they solved it. I believe that it is reasonable from this to deduce that the person whom has solved the riddle:

1. Has no great nor urgent need of money
2. Has no interest in being the Ushiromiya head OR knows that they would not be accepted as the head (such as an outsider, as we know that the members of the Ushiromiya family were extremely concerned about an outsider coming to steal their gold and vowed to work with each other to prevent at least that much from happening.)

So whom do we know that would fit such a description?

The adults of the Ushiromiya family can be ruled out obviously as they all have great need of wealth and would kill to be the head of the family. Battler can be ruled out as he didn’t know of the riddle beforehand, the fact that when he did solve the riddle, he revealed it to everyone instantly, and the fact that he isn’t the culprit as stated in red. Maria is out simply due to the fact that I can’t see her hauling three pure gold bars from the hiding place all to the chapel. Jessica is out because she definitely has no interest in the riddle whatsoever, judging from what we’ve seen of her. Gohda is out because his personal diary and everything we’ve seen of him shows that he considers the riddle and Beatrice and all that magical stuff to be so much nonsense. Nanjo is out because he also had great need of money in order to save his grandson (as shown in Episode 4.) And I would rule out Kanon because given his obsession with being furniture, I highly doubt he would attempt to subvert the general order and I doubt he would bother with the riddle because of his playing furniture.

This leaves things up to Kumasawa, Shannon, George, and Genji. Furthermore, Kumasawa due to her general talkativeness and her inability to keep such a thing secret, Genji with his loyalty to Kinzo, and George because I suspect that whomever solved the riddle has regular access to the island and is there frequently, which is probably not so in his case. Judging from this, I would say the person most likely to have solved the riddle already is Shannon. We know she’s saved a lot of money, we know that if she solved the riddle and declared so that Natsuhi and Eva would never accept it, and in addition she has no alibi whatsoever for the Second Twilight of Episode 2 (she claims that she was writing Kinzo’s will, which is obviously not true since Kinzo is already dead).

Consequently, the argument to be made from the three gold bars is:
SHANNON IS BEATRICE.

However, this is not all and at this point I begin creating my own theory. For while I suspect Shannon to be Beatrice as the one who solved the riddle, gave the letter to Maria, and knows where the gold is, I do not think Shannon is the general mastermind behind the killings.

To begin with, it is almost completely impossible for any one person to be doing all the murders in all four episodes. Everyone has an alibi at one point, and it is almost certain that there are multiple murderers. Consequently, I would also argue that there is a general mastermind behind most of the murders, and furthermore, that person is not Beatrice.

At this point, I will go ahead and state my general theory as to the murders and the mastermind and so forth, given the precepts accepted above:

Six years ago, Battler made a promise with Shannon of some kind - I would argue that it was a promise along the lines of “Let’s solve the riddle, get the gold and get married someday.” For Battler, it was a spur of the moment promise created by his headstrong nature. Both way, it was a childhood marriage promise, and I have no doubt that Shannon took it incredibly serious. When Battler abandoned his name of the Ushiromiya name and never came back to the island, Shannon decided to stay and wait for him to come back – note that it is pointed out at one point that Shannon has worked there for far longer than most of those orphanage servants of Rokkenjima work. However, Battler never came back for six years, and Shannon was alone. She was eventually largely pushed into a relationship into George due to the fact that George was very kind towards her, by Jessica who subconsciously decided to compensate for her utter failures in getting a boyfriend by pushing one onto Shannon, convinced it was the best while not really asking Shannon directly how she felt about the affair, and by the fact that Shannon is by nature a rather timid person and was unsure of how to say no to someone who had treated her so kindly. She felt guilty towards the fact that she felt that she was breaking her promise towards Battler but did not really know how to turn George down and so the relationship kept progressing.

Sometime over the six years, Shannon solved the riddle and discovered the location of the hidden gold – however she had no idea what to do with it. She had no need of money as she never really went anywhere, and she knew that the Ushiromiya adults would never, ever accept her as head of the family. Consequently, she just kept the location stored in her head, and never really did anything with it over the next six years. Somehow, George discovered the riddle and realized that Shannon had solved it, yet due to the promise Battler made with her to find the location of the gold together, she refused to tell George where it was. George had in the meantime made some small insinuations towards Eva about her relationship with Shannon, to which Eva did not react well. Interested in obtaining the gold for him and getting rid of the Ushiromiya family who he decided stood in the way of his relationship with Shannon, George began to hatch a plan towards getting rid of the rest of his family at the resulting family conference. Shannon initially went along went with the plan as she had no idea of what to do and no doubt George impressed her to some degree, however she was never ever truly enthusiastic behind the idea – she largely went along with what George was planning. It is possible that they managed to recruit Genji, who was bitter with Krauss and Natsuhi for desecrating Kinzo and keeping him “alive” for their greed’s sake, and Nanjo with the lure of money, though I would say their success in doing so depends on the arc.


However, the arrival of Battler changed everything. Shannon began to have concerns with the plan when she learned of Battler’s arrival, and although she felt betrayed when she realized Battler barely remembered her at all and the promise not at all, she vowed to protect him somewhat . This is part of the reason why Battler survives to the end in every route - in addition to the fact that you never see him do anything dangerous or go away from the large general group in most of the routes, Shannon was protecting him and deflecting George’s plan to murder the members of the family in accordance with the epitaph on other people. However, she did feel anger towards Rudolph because she felt that it was his fault that Battler abandoned her, which Rudolph got wind of somehow and why he almost always dies in the First Twilight. The concern of Shannon towards Battler affects some of the routes to a large degree.


To sum it up, my general suspects are:
George = mastermind - plans the murders but rarely actually carries any of them out himself.
Shannon = Beatrice - she does most of the murders in general, especially in Episodes 1, 2, and possibly 4(I really don't know what to make of 4 in general).
Genji = accomplice depending on route. Does some murders, some stakings, possibly a good chunk of the occult drawings.
Nanjo = accomplice depending on route. Generally doesn't murder anyone, but does some stakings, some drawings, and some messing around with the autopsies.

So that's it for now. Thoughts?

[Raneh]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Alright, a basic theory of mine. I'll be describing how the murders were actually pulled off later, but for now, here is what I suspect to be sort of the background to the story:

Spoiler for General Theory:

Concerning Umineko and its culprit:

The key point that I wish to analyze is the First Twilight of the Second Episode (Happy Halloween and all that). While we’re all naturally shocked with its incredible grotesquery, there is one point which is very strange that no one ever seems to address – the three gold bars lying there on the table stamped with the Ushiromiya seal. We know that from Episode 1, Krauss has to expend considerable effort just to get his hands on one gold bar – yet there are three gold bars just standing there without a care, almost as if the culprit didn’t care for them and the vast wealth they portray. When one thinks about it, there is really only one logical output for those gold bars:

Whomever killed the victims in the First Twilight has already solved the riddle.
However, such a fact is incredibly bizarre. As person X is ruled out through Knox’s rule, whomever killed the culprit knows the riddle but has never bothered to reveal such a fact. From a logical standpoint, this makes no sense – whomever solved the riddle and declared so would be able to gain the honor of being the head of the Ushiromiya family and would be able to access the vast wealth of the gold immediately – for as long as they keep the fact that they solved the riddle secret, they can’t just go and cart out 2000 tons or however large the gold is and thus don’t have as much wealth as they would as if they declared that they solved it. I believe that it is reasonable from this to deduce that the person whom has solved the riddle:

1. Has no great nor urgent need of money
2. Has no interest in being the Ushiromiya head OR knows that they would not be accepted as the head (such as an outsider, as we know that the members of the Ushiromiya family were extremely concerned about an outsider coming to steal their gold and vowed to work with each other to prevent at least that much from happening.)

So whom do we know that would fit such a description?

The adults of the Ushiromiya family can be ruled out obviously as they all have great need of wealth and would kill to be the head of the family. Battler can be ruled out as he didn’t know of the riddle beforehand, the fact that when he did solve the riddle, he revealed it to everyone instantly, and the fact that he isn’t the culprit as stated in red. Maria is out simply due to the fact that I can’t see her hauling three pure gold bars from the hiding place all to the chapel. Jessica is out because she definitely has no interest in the riddle whatsoever, judging from what we’ve seen of her. Gohda is out because his personal diary and everything we’ve seen of him shows that he considers the riddle and Beatrice and all that magical stuff to be so much nonsense. Nanjo is out because he also had great need of money in order to save his grandson (as shown in Episode 4.) And I would rule out Kanon because given his obsession with being furniture, I highly doubt he would attempt to subvert the general order and I doubt he would bother with the riddle because of his playing furniture.

This leaves things up to Kumasawa, Shannon, George, and Genji. Furthermore, Kumasawa due to her general talkativeness and her inability to keep such a thing secret, Genji with his loyalty to Kinzo, and George because I suspect that whomever solved the riddle has regular access to the island and is there frequently, which is probably not so in his case. Judging from this, I would say the person most likely to have solved the riddle already is Shannon. We know she’s saved a lot of money, we know that if she solved the riddle and declared so that Natsuhi and Eva would never accept it, and in addition she has no alibi whatsoever for the Second Twilight of Episode 2 (she claims that she was writing Kinzo’s will, which is obviously not true since Kinzo is already dead).

Consequently, the argument to be made from the three gold bars is:
SHANNON IS BEATRICE.

However, this is not all and at this point I begin creating my own theory. For while I suspect Shannon to be Beatrice as the one who solved the riddle, gave the letter to Maria, and knows where the gold is, I do not think Shannon is the general mastermind behind the killings.

To begin with, it is almost completely impossible for any one person to be doing all the murders in all four episodes. Everyone has an alibi at one point, and it is almost certain that there are multiple murderers. Consequently, I would also argue that there is a general mastermind behind most of the murders, and furthermore, that person is not Beatrice.

At this point, I will go ahead and state my general theory as to the murders and the mastermind and so forth, given the precepts accepted above:

Six years ago, Battler made a promise with Shannon of some kind - I would argue that it was a promise along the lines of “Let’s solve the riddle, get the gold and get married someday.” For Battler, it was a spur of the moment promise created by his headstrong nature. Both way, it was a childhood marriage promise, and I have no doubt that Shannon took it incredibly serious. When Battler abandoned his name of the Ushiromiya name and never came back to the island, Shannon decided to stay and wait for him to come back – note that it is pointed out at one point that Shannon has worked there for far longer than most of those orphanage servants of Rokkenjima work. However, Battler never came back for six years, and Shannon was alone. She was eventually largely pushed into a relationship into George due to the fact that George was very kind towards her, by Jessica who subconsciously decided to compensate for her utter failures in getting a boyfriend by pushing one onto Shannon, convinced it was the best while not really asking Shannon directly how she felt about the affair, and by the fact that Shannon is by nature a rather timid person and was unsure of how to say no to someone who had treated her so kindly. She felt guilty towards the fact that she felt that she was breaking her promise towards Battler but did not really know how to turn George down and so the relationship kept progressing.

Sometime over the six years, Shannon solved the riddle and discovered the location of the hidden gold – however she had no idea what to do with it. She had no need of money as she never really went anywhere, and she knew that the Ushiromiya adults would never, ever accept her as head of the family. Consequently, she just kept the location stored in her head, and never really did anything with it over the next six years. Somehow, George discovered the riddle and realized that Shannon had solved it, yet due to the promise Battler made with her to find the location of the gold together, she refused to tell George where it was. George had in the meantime made some small insinuations towards Eva about her relationship with Shannon, to which Eva did not react well. Interested in obtaining the gold for him and getting rid of the Ushiromiya family who he decided stood in the way of his relationship with Shannon, George began to hatch a plan towards getting rid of the rest of his family at the resulting family conference. Shannon initially went along went with the plan as she had no idea of what to do and no doubt George impressed her to some degree, however she was never ever truly enthusiastic behind the idea – she largely went along with what George was planning. It is possible that they managed to recruit Genji, who was bitter with Krauss and Natsuhi for desecrating Kinzo and keeping him “alive” for their greed’s sake, and Nanjo with the lure of money, though I would say their success in doing so depends on the arc.


However, the arrival of Battler changed everything. Shannon began to have concerns with the plan when she learned of Battler’s arrival, and although she felt betrayed when she realized Battler barely remembered her at all and the promise not at all, she vowed to protect him somewhat . This is part of the reason why Battler survives to the end in every route - in addition to the fact that you never see him do anything dangerous or go away from the large general group in most of the routes, Shannon was protecting him and deflecting George’s plan to murder the members of the family in accordance with the epitaph on other people. However, she did feel anger towards Rudolph because she felt that it was his fault that Battler abandoned her, which Rudolph got wind of somehow and why he almost always dies in the First Twilight. The concern of Shannon towards Battler affects some of the routes to a large degree.


To sum it up, my general suspects are:
George = mastermind - plans the murders but rarely actually carries any of them out himself.
Shannon = Beatrice - she does most of the murders in general, especially in Episodes 1, 2, and possibly 4(I really don't know what to make of 4 in general).
Genji = accomplice depending on route. Does some murders, some stakings, possibly a good chunk of the occult drawings.
Nanjo = accomplice depending on route. Generally doesn't murder anyone, but does some stakings, some drawings, and some messing around with the autopsies.

Spoiler for ep4 red truths included:

Using your theory it would be pretty weird that the "masterminds" Shannon and/or George die so often, and early too. Of course it could be possible that their plan was revealed and then continued by the siblings if they know about it before the first twilight. I do agree on some points but there's a lot of things I'd have to check in order to see if they can really be true, I'll just wait for your murder descriptions.
I don't completely disagree with this, it may be at least partly one of the truths out there.

However, one thing I remember is in ep4
The sin I am now demanding that you remember is not between Ushiromiya Battler and Beatrice.
"Ushiromiya Battler has a sin."
"Because of your sin, people die."

Your theory doesn't really support this and I think it's more vital in this mystery. By your theory the motive for killings are actually not connected to Battler at all, it's about George and his ambitions. I don't think it's going to be as simple as George killing everyone in order to live a rich life with his love.

[Volcanic]

Agreeing with Raneh, although it's an interesting theory.

Coincidently, quick, minor, and random theory:

Spoiler for Quick, Minor and Random!:

During EP2, Beato throws out this (hilarious) red text:

You are incompetent! (lol meme)
Hi-hhihihhihihihihihihihihihihi!!
Come on, Ushiromiya Battler, kneel!
If you accept me, all of the riddles will be resolved!
With my power, any kind of closed room can be created, and destroyed!!
I'll make you my favorite furniture!
I'll love you so much, and make you my toy until you turn to ashes!
*cackle*cackle*cackle* Hihihihihihihihihihihyahyahyahhahhahahahaha-hhahahahhahhahhahhahhahhahha!

Check out the bolded text. "I'll love you so much." Now this might be wishful thinking, but did Beato accidentally make herself fall for Battler?

Now at first this looks like random fangirly nonsense, but-Beato first shows signs of moe-ness in EP3, and this happened just before, in EP2. And just look at them in EP5- it's crazy close to canon. In fact, Beato's (heartbreaking D8) trick at the end of EP3 could be her figuring out what she did to herself and trying to stop it.

...However, this would follow the "Red Text creates the truth" theory. It could, of course, mean she would've loved him anyway

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Spoiler for .:

I don't think you need to accept magic necessarily.
This goes back to what Virgilia said, about technology of the future seeming like magic. For example, some properties of quantum physics seemed so fantastical that even Einstein didn't want to believe in them. For anyone before the last couple centuries, the thought of considering the effects of quantum physics as a rational "science" would be laughable.

Also, if our real universe were a single kakera among many, then it would be almost impossible to prove that fact by definition. For all we know, and will ever know, the existence of "multiple universes" is a simple fact of reality. Also, if these multiple kakera exist, it's a very reasonable Devil's Proof to suggest that "there is some way of traveling between them". Unlike most Devil's Proofs, there's probably a greater likelihood of this statement being correct, judging by the size and complexity of the universe.

In short, simple kakera-switching can fall outside the realm of fantasy and into standard science fiction. The only reason Battler started fighting against fantasy is because he believes that "reason exists in this world". Well, good sci-fi always follows the laws of reason and logic, at least to the limits that they are known at the time of writing.

Spoiler for episode5:

Uhm, first, afaik, the quantum theories were never demonstrated, and the same is true for the relativity theory. Even if they are widely accepted it doesn't mean they were proven. Personally I don't buy half of the quantum theories, especially considering that in most cases they know what happens but they don't know why.

That apart, "Sci-fi" is "fantasy" spiced up with "science". Even if we accept the multi-universe interpretation, the way to travel through these many universes is impossible in 1986. Even if such a thing existed it would still go against the mystery standards (knox rules).

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Alright, a basic theory of mine. I'll be describing how the murders were actually pulled off later, but for now, here is what I suspect to be sort of the background to the story:

Spoiler for General Theory:

Concerning Umineko and its culprit:

The key point that I wish to analyze is the First Twilight of the Second Episode (Happy Halloween and all that). While we’re all naturally shocked with its incredible grotesquery, there is one point which is very strange that no one ever seems to address – the three gold bars lying there on the table stamped with the Ushiromiya seal. We know that from Episode 1, Krauss has to expend considerable effort just to get his hands on one gold bar – yet there are three gold bars just standing there without a care, almost as if the culprit didn’t care for them and the vast wealth they portray. When one thinks about it, there is really only one logical output for those gold bars:

Whomever killed the victims in the First Twilight has already solved the riddle.
However, such a fact is incredibly bizarre. As person X is ruled out through Knox’s rule, whomever killed the culprit knows the riddle but has never bothered to reveal such a fact. From a logical standpoint, this makes no sense – whomever solved the riddle and declared so would be able to gain the honor of being the head of the Ushiromiya family and would be able to access the vast wealth of the gold immediately – for as long as they keep the fact that they solved the riddle secret, they can’t just go and cart out 2000 tons or however large the gold is and thus don’t have as much wealth as they would as if they declared that they solved it. I believe that it is reasonable from this to deduce that the person whom has solved the riddle:

1. Has no great nor urgent need of money
2. Has no interest in being the Ushiromiya head OR knows that they would not be accepted as the head (such as an outsider, as we know that the members of the Ushiromiya family were extremely concerned about an outsider coming to steal their gold and vowed to work with each other to prevent at least that much from happening.)

So whom do we know that would fit such a description?

The adults of the Ushiromiya family can be ruled out obviously as they all have great need of wealth and would kill to be the head of the family. Battler can be ruled out as he didn’t know of the riddle beforehand, the fact that when he did solve the riddle, he revealed it to everyone instantly, and the fact that he isn’t the culprit as stated in red. Maria is out simply due to the fact that I can’t see her hauling three pure gold bars from the hiding place all to the chapel. Jessica is out because she definitely has no interest in the riddle whatsoever, judging from what we’ve seen of her. Gohda is out because his personal diary and everything we’ve seen of him shows that he considers the riddle and Beatrice and all that magical stuff to be so much nonsense. Nanjo is out because he also had great need of money in order to save his grandson (as shown in Episode 4.) And I would rule out Kanon because given his obsession with being furniture, I highly doubt he would attempt to subvert the general order and I doubt he would bother with the riddle because of his playing furniture.

This leaves things up to Kumasawa, Shannon, George, and Genji. Furthermore, Kumasawa due to her general talkativeness and her inability to keep such a thing secret, Genji with his loyalty to Kinzo, and George because I suspect that whomever solved the riddle has regular access to the island and is there frequently, which is probably not so in his case. Judging from this, I would say the person most likely to have solved the riddle already is Shannon. We know she’s saved a lot of money, we know that if she solved the riddle and declared so that Natsuhi and Eva would never accept it, and in addition she has no alibi whatsoever for the Second Twilight of Episode 2 (she claims that she was writing Kinzo’s will, which is obviously not true since Kinzo is already dead).

Consequently, the argument to be made from the three gold bars is:
SHANNON IS BEATRICE.

However, this is not all and at this point I begin creating my own theory. For while I suspect Shannon to be Beatrice as the one who solved the riddle, gave the letter to Maria, and knows where the gold is, I do not think Shannon is the general mastermind behind the killings.

To begin with, it is almost completely impossible for any one person to be doing all the murders in all four episodes. Everyone has an alibi at one point, and it is almost certain that there are multiple murderers. Consequently, I would also argue that there is a general mastermind behind most of the murders, and furthermore, that person is not Beatrice.

At this point, I will go ahead and state my general theory as to the murders and the mastermind and so forth, given the precepts accepted above:

Six years ago, Battler made a promise with Shannon of some kind - I would argue that it was a promise along the lines of “Let’s solve the riddle, get the gold and get married someday.” For Battler, it was a spur of the moment promise created by his headstrong nature. Both way, it was a childhood marriage promise, and I have no doubt that Shannon took it incredibly serious. When Battler abandoned his name of the Ushiromiya name and never came back to the island, Shannon decided to stay and wait for him to come back – note that it is pointed out at one point that Shannon has worked there for far longer than most of those orphanage servants of Rokkenjima work. However, Battler never came back for six years, and Shannon was alone. She was eventually largely pushed into a relationship into George due to the fact that George was very kind towards her, by Jessica who subconsciously decided to compensate for her utter failures in getting a boyfriend by pushing one onto Shannon, convinced it was the best while not really asking Shannon directly how she felt about the affair, and by the fact that Shannon is by nature a rather timid person and was unsure of how to say no to someone who had treated her so kindly. She felt guilty towards the fact that she felt that she was breaking her promise towards Battler but did not really know how to turn George down and so the relationship kept progressing.

Sometime over the six years, Shannon solved the riddle and discovered the location of the hidden gold – however she had no idea what to do with it. She had no need of money as she never really went anywhere, and she knew that the Ushiromiya adults would never, ever accept her as head of the family. Consequently, she just kept the location stored in her head, and never really did anything with it over the next six years. Somehow, George discovered the riddle and realized that Shannon had solved it, yet due to the promise Battler made with her to find the location of the gold together, she refused to tell George where it was. George had in the meantime made some small insinuations towards Eva about her relationship with Shannon, to which Eva did not react well. Interested in obtaining the gold for him and getting rid of the Ushiromiya family who he decided stood in the way of his relationship with Shannon, George began to hatch a plan towards getting rid of the rest of his family at the resulting family conference. Shannon initially went along went with the plan as she had no idea of what to do and no doubt George impressed her to some degree, however she was never ever truly enthusiastic behind the idea – she largely went along with what George was planning. It is possible that they managed to recruit Genji, who was bitter with Krauss and Natsuhi for desecrating Kinzo and keeping him “alive” for their greed’s sake, and Nanjo with the lure of money, though I would say their success in doing so depends on the arc.


However, the arrival of Battler changed everything. Shannon began to have concerns with the plan when she learned of Battler’s arrival, and although she felt betrayed when she realized Battler barely remembered her at all and the promise not at all, she vowed to protect him somewhat . This is part of the reason why Battler survives to the end in every route - in addition to the fact that you never see him do anything dangerous or go away from the large general group in most of the routes, Shannon was protecting him and deflecting George’s plan to murder the members of the family in accordance with the epitaph on other people. However, she did feel anger towards Rudolph because she felt that it was his fault that Battler abandoned her, which Rudolph got wind of somehow and why he almost always dies in the First Twilight. The concern of Shannon towards Battler affects some of the routes to a large degree.


To sum it up, my general suspects are:
George = mastermind - plans the murders but rarely actually carries any of them out himself.
Shannon = Beatrice - she does most of the murders in general, especially in Episodes 1, 2, and possibly 4(I really don't know what to make of 4 in general).
Genji = accomplice depending on route. Does some murders, some stakings, possibly a good chunk of the occult drawings.
Nanjo = accomplice depending on route. Generally doesn't murder anyone, but does some stakings, some drawings, and some messing around with the autopsies.

So that's it for now. Thoughts?

Different reasoning but similar conclusion compared to my theory. There is just a noticeable error: the riddle wasn't disclosed until 1984, so in 1980 didn't exist, and Battler couldn't have made such a promise.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Marina2

So.... Whose hand is in Erika's portrait?

Spoiler for ep.5:

Beato? Battler?

Probably the tool used to knock on the door at midnight...

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode5:

Uhm, first, afaik, the quantum theories were never demonstrated, and the same is true for the relativity theory. Even if they are widely accepted it doesn't mean they were proven. Personally I don't buy half of the quantum theories, especially considering that in most cases they know what happens but they don't know why.

That apart, "Sci-fi" is "fantasy" spiced up with "science". Even if we accept the multi-universe interpretation, the way to travel through these many universes is impossible in 1986. Even if such a thing existed it would still go against the mystery standards (knox rules).

Well, you can never "prove" a theory in science. All you can do is collect overwhelming evidence supporting your conclusion. Both aspects of quantum theory and relativity are supported by a huge amount of experimental evidence. Unless they're only a special case of a larger theory, there's almost no debate about whether they are true, at least in most situations that we can observe.

The largest difference between good sci-fi and fantasy is that sci-fi provides a plausible explanation. Good sci-fi is impossible to disprove with current scientific knowledge. Good fantasy is almost always impossible, and obviously so. (unless you're willing to buy an extreme twist in the known laws of physics)

The only ones who seem to care about strict mystery standards are Bern and friends, and they only care about it on the game board.
Obviously, the Meta world cannot fall under the same rules by the simple inclusion of the colored texts, among other things.

[Jan-Poo]

Spoiler for episode5 portrait:

Lol, well in the end there was absolutely no explanation about the portrait, not even about the figure between the trees and neither about that other figure which is also said to be there although I keep failing to see.

[Volcanic]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode5 portrait:

Lol, well in the end there was absolutely no explanation about the portrait, not even about the figure between the trees and neither about that other figure which is also said to be there although I keep failing to see.

I like to think the figure is Natsuhi. It would fit her place in the game. ...However, why would she be in a cloak...

I bet we'll get more into the portrait in EP6-7, because it has too much symbolism in it not to be at least mentioned.

...W-Wait, there was another figure in the trees?!?

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for episode5 portrait:

Lol, well in the end there was absolutely no explanation about the portrait, not even about the figure between the trees and neither about that other figure which is also said to be there although I keep failing to see.

Well we don't get an explanation for the hand either XD; Maybe red herrings to throw us off?

[Kaiba]

However, one thing I remember is in ep4
The sin I am now demanding that you remember is not between Ushiromiya Battler and Beatrice.
"Ushiromiya Battler has a sin."
"Because of your sin, people die."

Your theory doesn't really support this and I think it's more vital in this mystery. By your theory the motive for killings are actually not connected to Battler at all, it's about George and his ambitions. I don't think it's going to be as simple as George killing everyone in order to live a rich life with his love.

The first truth doesn't work against it because the sin is not between Battler and Beatrice, it is between Battler and Shannon. I guess I would apply my Shannon = Beatrice theorem loosely. Shannon isn't Beatrice directly, she acts as the Beatrice of the island throughout the murders and so forth.
Battler's sin is that he didn't keep his promise to Shannon, and if he had kept his promise, Shannon probably would not have been persuaded into the whole murder plan of George, and thus the plan would not have gotten off the ground as George would not have had not nearly as much motive to kill everyone and without Shannon would lack much of the means in the first place to commit those murders.

Using your theory it would be pretty weird that the "masterminds" Shannon and/or George die so often, and early too.

Not really. I'll basically sum up what I think happened in the episodes:
Episode 1: Shannon fakes her death, the two are working with Nanjo, who persuades the others that Shannon is dead. Shannon proceeds to run amok afterwards and kills virtually everyone else (Kanon's death is explained by a trap being laid there as Shannon uses the place as an escape route, but I have also not completely ruled out Shkannon.)
Episode 2: The two work with Genji and Nanjo at first, and things go according to plan for a bit. However, someone figures out those two and kills those two, but the rest of the family kill each other out of fear and paranoia.
Episode 3: For whatever reason, Shannon starts backing out of the plan, and George in a panic ends up killing her and all the servants as a way to cover it up and follow the epitaph. The pair thus this round don't really do anything, but someone else (depending on the situation, but I suspect Kyrie in a lot of the scenarios) starts killing people, and the family breaks down as once again they kill each other out of fear and paranoia.
Episode 4: Not really sure, that arc was so damn weird. I'll have to think harder about that one later.
Episode 5: The two are planning to work with Genji, but Battler solving the riddle throws everything in disarray. George and Genji want to keep going so they can keep the gold all to themselves, but Shannon, due to her love for Battler, decides "fuck it" and kills George and Genji, and then kills the other three because they're in the same room as George to make sure she gets away with it. I really don't know anything about the rest of the arc, so I can't really explain Krauss's and Hideyoshi's deaths as I don't know anything about them.

Different reasoning but similar conclusion compared to my theory. There is just a noticeable error: the riddle wasn't disclosed until 1984, so in 1980 didn't exist, and Battler couldn't have made such a promise.

Oh dear, I didn't realize that. Perhaps then the promise was just a childhood marriage promise and Shannon didn't want to reveal the gold's location as she wanted Battler to be the first to see it. I guess that works them.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

but I have also not completely ruled out Shkannon.

I think the Shannon = Kanon theory is gone due to episode 5. However, Kanon pretending to be Shannon or vice versa is very probable like Higurashi's Shion and Mion.

[Megaolix]

Not that I completely disagree with your theory Kaiba, but was there a bit of a clue between Shannon and Battler? We are supposed to be able to know and deduce all elements now. As long as that part as a single hint of it, it can stand.

Besides, we've seen reason for the murders, but for 'Battler's benefit' has never been denied, right?

Also, let me add something. You made a solid point with the gold. What about the ring then? I doubt Shannon had a key to wherever Kinzo was.

[Volcanic]

Originally Posted by Megaolix

Not that I completely disagree with your theory Kaiba, but was there a bit of a clue between Shannon and Battler? We are supposed to be able to know and deduce all elements now. As long as that part as a single hint of it, it can stand.

IN EP1, it's mentioned Battler had a crush on Shannon when he was younger.

[Kitsu]

My take on the actual discussion

IN EP1, it's mentioned Battler had a crush on Shannon when he was younger.

And where was it implied that this cursh was kinda returned? On the other hand it was implied that Shannon didn't act all nice with the cousins and really improper for a servant.
And to be honest...the Shannon did the killing thing seems reasonable but the promise thing feels really fishy. Especially the "marriage promise" which girl who is still a bit right in the head would take such a promise of a 12 year old after six years not seeing him at all serious? And even start killing for it (cause because of the broken promise (the sin) people die, you cannot tell me that george convinced her doing it for their relationship if it is about Battler's and Shannon's broken marriage promise ) and as if killing his family would make him remember and even marry her. I mean

Spoiler for Higurashi kai:

even Takano's action were more reasonable and normal. And she wanted to become a god and that's really something messed up.

And maybe I missed it or something were was it actually said that Beatrice loves Battler? I will be ashamed for missing that... Also I think we are to much focusing on romatic love, after all this is a story which main characters are a family. and even between none blood-related characters love was shown. Best examples are Shannon/Kanon, Kumasawa/Shannon (it was said that Kumasawa was like a mother for all servants) and the friendship love Shannon/Jessica (Jessica describes Shannon as her oldest friend etc).
Also why even show us all those totally nice George/shannon secnese be it in the past or the magic scenes if Beatrice wants Battler to remember their love. i mean it's like trying to sell somethign but praising the other merchants stuff instead of your own (okay that example is a bit badly choosen)
Furthermore doesn't it feel odd that Shannon in her POV never thinks about Battler at all? Not even in the past events (her date with George, the talks with Jessica about love (and why even talk about hwo wonderful George is with her if she loves Battler etc.) if she loves him so dearly? And why even get close to George? That doesn't make sense to me...

Again about that promise thing...if there was ever a promise wouldn't it be something more like "I'll get you off this boring island" ? That sounds more like Battler to me and more like somthing Shannon would cling to. Waiting for him to get her of the island not doing it herself. (I still think the promise thing is fishy but oh well)

I am still pretty found of the idea that Beatrice is still just metaphorically and represents someone who kills out of love. (sounds hypocritical ^^; And Eva-Beato represents someone who kills for the inheritance/gold or for becoming the head.
Also @Kaiba
I think your explanation for motives and how the murders are done are really well to be frank really unrealistic and at times even hypocritical. Most people seem just to be killed to follow the epitaph in ep 5. Which is strange cause you explained that Shannon just says "Fuck it" if she really thinks that then why follow the epitaph anyway? In ep 3...yeah george just kill all the servants to cover up one or two deaths and then play innocent and do nothing anymore. Cause the killings of 6 people is so much more decent and makes people search for the culprit much lesser than if you only kill 2 persons especially since it's rather well known that George loves Shannon...that would make him really supicious, I mean everyone kills her/his loved ones, George you are a genius!
The whole the family kills each other out o paranoia seems unlikeable, you guys know why? If I kill someone out of paranoia I don't start searching for a stake then comeback and stake that person (or the dead body) (though I think this might have happened in Ep 3 but I kinda don't buy it)
In Ep 1 ...Kanon can't be killed with a trap as you say cause it was stated in red that he wasn't. Shkanon? Wouldn't make much sense in your theory cause why would she even do that? 'cept
"The person dead in the shed at the first twilight was actually Kanon, Shannon killed him and then dressed up as him for the rest of the episode. This way she could fake her death without having Nanjo as an accomplice and trick Hideyoshi at the same time." Seems still unlikely but oh well.

Also your "Genji and George wanted the gold all by themselves", well excuse me but loyal Genji and already rich George who doesn't have an financial problems would have done that?
and about the rest of Ep 5

Spoiler for Ep 5:

it's strongly implied that the victims of the first twilight faked their death or something. (I think the seven sisters of the Purgatory did that while attacking Erika in the Tea Party) I could be wrong though.

[Kaiba]

I think your explanation for motives and how the murders are done are really well to be frank really unrealistic and at times even hypocritical. Most people seem just to be killed to follow the epitaph in ep 5. Which is strange cause you explained that Shannon just says "Fuck it" if she really thinks that then why follow the epitaph anyway?

They were killed to follow the epitaph? Like I said, I really don't know very much about what actually happens in Episode 5 so I can be completely wrong here, but if the killings in Episode 5 were meant to follow the epitaph, why did only five die in the first twilight and only two more died after that? Can you explain that to me?

In ep 3...yeah george just kill all the servants to cover up one or two deaths and then play innocent and do nothing anymore. Cause the killings of 6 people is so much more decent and makes people search for the culprit much lesser than if you only kill 2 persons especially since it's rather well known that George loves Shannon...that would make him really supicious, I mean everyone kills her/his loved ones, George you are a genius!

I'm not really sure what your point is here, but my theory on it goes like this: George intends to kill Shannon and possibly Genji, but kills all the servants so that no one realizes that the deaths of those two were the really important point and to follow the epitaph (I realize this means that George realizes that Kinzo is dead, but I'll submit that he found that out somehow through Shannon). However, he collapses from guilt out of killing the one he loves, and hence kind of blanks out the rest of the arc out of pure guilt for what he did.

The whole the family kills each other out o paranoia seems unlikeable, you guys know why? If I kill someone out of paranoia I don't start searching for a stake then comeback and stake that person (or the dead body) (though I think this might have happened in Ep 3 but I kinda don't buy it)

Who ever said that the person doing the killings is the same person doing the stakings? And given that the family is indeed in a struggle for wealth and power, it is indeed reasonable to assume that they would commit murders over it especially over a scenario like this.

Shkanon? Wouldn't make much sense in your theory cause why would she even do that? 'cept

I said I hadn't completely ruled it out, not that I had accepted it - I'm 85% sure it's false from what I've seen.

Also your "Genji and George wanted the gold all by themselves", well excuse me but loyal Genji and already rich George who doesn't have an financial problems would have done that?
and about the rest of Ep 5

A little more gold never hurt anyone and George would definitely like to be with Shannon and it seems that he would sacrifice his entire family to do it from what we saw in the Fourth Episode. And what proof do we have that Genji's loyal to Natsuhi and Krauss? He's definitely loyal to Kinzo, but he's dead, and it's possible that Genji would have a huge issue with those two propping him up as alive so they can keep up their greedy desires - I would argue that Genji is possibly dragged along as revenge against those two more than any desire for gold.

it's strongly implied that the victims of the first twilight faked their death or something. (I think the seven sisters of the Purgatory did that while attacking Erika in the Tea Party) I could be wrong though.

Regarding the unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist
Who were the only two identified corpses there? Shannon and Krauss. And yes, that does mean you can argue Krauss is alive, though I don't think so and I think half of his face was smashed so we wouldn't be all suspicious of Shannon being the only person with half her face gone.

[Kitsu]

They were killed to follow the epitaph? Like I said, I really don't know very much about what actually happens in Episode 5 so I can be completely wrong here, but if the killings in Episode 5 were meant to follow the epitaph, why did only five die in the first twilight and only two more died after that? Can you explain that to me?

Krauss belongs to the first twilight. I think I misunderstood you with what you actually ment there. (i thought you know that Krauss belonged to the first twilight)

But isn't it rather well strange for Shannon just killing of a little innocent girl and her best friend just to get away with it?

Regarding the unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist
Who were the only two identified corpses there? Shannon and Krauss. And yes, that does mean you can argue Krauss is alive, though I don't think so and I think half of his face was smashed so we wouldn't be all suspicious of Shannon being the only person with half her face gone.

Well the red truth is completely useless since all corpses were identified. For example BAttler identified one of the corpses as his father since he saw the clothes. And this happened with all corpses. Also I was talking about the Fifth Game first twilight

Who ever said that the person doing the killings is the same person doing the stakings? And given that the family is indeed in a struggle for wealth and power, it is indeed reasonable to assume that they would commit murders over it especially over a scenario like this.

This is an rather popular theory but who would do the stakings and why? If the masterminds are dead who would bother doing that?

I'm not really sure what your point is here, but my theory on it goes like this: George intends to kill Shannon and possibly Genji, but kills all the servants so that no one realizes that the deaths of those two were the really important point and to follow the epitaph (I realize this means that George realizes that Kinzo is dead, but I'll submit that he found that out somehow through Shannon). However, he collapses from guilt out of killing the one he loves, and hence kind of blanks out the rest of the arc out of pure guilt for what he did.

Why would he even intend kill Shannon if like you say

George would definitely like to be with Shannon and it seems that he would sacrifice his entire family to do it from what we saw in the Fourth Episode

???

He's definitely loyal to Kinzo, but he's dead, and it's possible that Genji would have a huge issue with those two propping him up as alive so they can keep up their greedy desires - I would argue that Genji is possibly dragged along as revenge against those two more than any desire for gold.

Why even be angry at those two? I mean they didn't kill Kinzo Krauss only tried to solve his buisness problems with his death. And that's something Kinzo would have done himself. So there is no reason for genji to seek somethin like revenge

[mizou]

I've read a theory , and I think it's the most appropriate
the culpirit(s) is not one of the 18, but an outsider
since beato stated in red on the end of the four game that there's no one on the island and she will kill battler .. that's don't exclude that on that time the culpirit was on the harport of kuwadorian on a boat ( he's on the sea , not on the island ) and he can join the island and kill battler

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by mizou

I've read a theory , and I think it's the most appropriate
the culpirit(s) is not one of the 18, but an outsider

That would break on of Knox's rules, which the game seems to follow. Only one or more of the characters shown at the beginning can be the culprit, I believe.
And that's one of the 17. (as Kinzo is dead and Erika is confirmed not to be the culprit)

[Tjfarmer]

Than one of the 17 pretended to be dead, fled the island, and than came back to kill him!

....That would be a really cheap way to answer that red though, but whatever.

[Kaiba]

Krauss belongs to the first twilight. I think I misunderstood you with what you actually ment there. (i thought you know that Krauss belonged to the first twilight)

But isn't it rather well strange for Shannon just killing of a little innocent girl and her best friend just to get away with it?

Didn't realize about Krauss, that's a bit of a problem. Will have to think about it.
And as I view Shannon as a murderer in at least Arcs 1 and 2, no I don't really have any problem with her murdering Jessica and Maria, especially if she didn't, they'd blab on her killing George.

Well the red truth is completely useless since all corpses were identified. For example BAttler identified one of the corpses as his father since he saw the clothes. And this happened with all corpses. Also I was talking about the Fifth Game first twilight

While all corpses were identified in that they said "This is Rudolph" "This is Rosa" etc Batller acknowledged on the Gameboard that it was possible for one of the corpses to not really be one, and I would argue that the completely smashed faces do fall under unidentified. And yeah, this first twilight conversation is a bit confusing.

Why would he even intend kill Shannon if like you say

I think Shannon wanted to back out of the entire killing plan in Episode 3 and threatened to tell, and George just plain panicked and killed her, possibly by accident or just out of sheer panic out of fear of being found out. However, since he loved her, he felt ridiculously guilty afterwards for what he did, which is why he doesn't really do anything in Episode 3, as I would argue he simply blacked out of guilt.

Why even be angry at those two? I mean they didn't kill Kinzo Krauss only tried to solve his buisness problems with his death. And that's something Kinzo would have done himself. So there is no reason for genji to seek somethin like revenge

They propped him up as alive for completely selfish reasons, did not give his corpse any form of respect (as it looks like it was just sitting around for two years), and just hid his death. Those are my grounds for why Genji would have a grudge towards those two.