2009-01-17, 16:36 | Link #561 |
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Wikipedia lists April as having the most rocket attacks from Gaza in 2008: 373.
That means if Hamas is still launching 20 rockets per day (seem to remember this number being mentioned) right now, they're still capable of launching the sort of attacks they were in the April 2008 timeframe. Which to me means that Hamas will probably hold to the upcoming ceasefire until they feel the need to show off again. Anyone care to explain how this is different from the outcome we would have gotten from a more restrained war? |
2009-01-17, 16:43 | Link #562 | |
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2009-01-17, 16:44 | Link #563 |
Um-Shmum
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it fired 373 rockets
it could have fired much more, but it kept up a stedy rate (right now 20 a day is ALL it can fire) it used the threat of "if you dont do what we want, we keep firing 20 a day" but "if you try and act against us, we'll fire 100" a day they were trying to create a balance of terror between it and israel but since israel and hamas are NOT equal in terms of power, that doesnt really work if israel doesnt want it to there is an old israeli's soldier saying (about trying to fight the IDF's burocratic system) "if you piss on the army, it gets wet" "if the army pisses on you, you drown" same deal here prior to this op hamas felt that it can show off without israel responding (israel is at fault, for allowing them to continue to believe this) it knows better now it knows what the price would be it knows that israel really CAN throw them out of power (it still might, if it doesnt hold to the cease-fire) it wont be so willing to fire rockets again knowing that israel may respond in the same way again
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2009-01-17, 17:09 | Link #564 |
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The problem with the deterrence thinking is that it assumes that it assumes Hamas cares that much about how successful it's military operations actually are.
Remember that New York Times article Vexx posted? http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/14/op...1.html?_r=1&em The objective of fighting for these guys is to show they have balls - it doesn't matter how bloodied they get, as look as they got a few good hits on you. They'll stop attacking so hard once they've proven their point... until they feel the need to prove the point again. |
2009-01-17, 17:19 | Link #565 |
Um-Shmum
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hamas is now the de-facto goverment in gaza
it has an interest in keep this position (it is, among other things, a political movement after all) and now, they know that losing it could just be a matter of firing a few rockets
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2009-01-17, 17:32 | Link #566 |
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Here's an excellent article in the NYT that manages to meld both what bladesofdarkness contends and what some others contend about the various behaviors of Israel or Hamas. It demonstrates the problem of goals and intent versus actions on the ground and in the heat of the moment amongst other things.
"Weighing Crimes and Ethics in the Fog of Urban Warfare" http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/wo.../17israel.html And here's Hamas waving its testicles in the rut it seems perpetually stuck in: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/18/wo...t.html?_r=1&hp The ceasefire will probably have the effect of corroding sympathy for Hama if they continue to fire rockets rather than work with diplomats to improve the living conditions for their registered voters. I still think a primary underground motivation for the "police action" had to do with money ("gas deal") and power ("elections") ... but that's an assessment of politicians who remind me a lot of the yahoos who spent the last eight years running my country :P @WK: and hopefully, the US's abject failure with pre-emptive war will be the last time you see that bogosity. Now if we could just get a rein on our covert "manipulation" to maintain dictatorships and governments unfavorable to a country's people....
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2009-01-17, 22:06 | Link #567 | ||||
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2009-01-17, 23:57 | Link #568 | |
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2009-01-18, 00:20 | Link #569 | |||
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Number two is hard to judge because the path between our current situation and what I see as the desirable outcome (two state solution with a Palestinian government strong enough to bring rogue single state elements under control) is completely unclear. Certainly I expect progress to be made, but I imagine that navigating from A to B is going to require negotiating a security nightmare. Quote:
One thing I'm interested in with this thread: if the Israeli military is banking on instilling fear of the IDF in the Gazan populace, how does this fear manifest itself? I still think Hamas will be more afraid of losing face than lives, but how does your average Palestinian respond? Can they even do anything constructive about it? |
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2009-01-18, 02:23 | Link #570 | ||
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Olmert announces Gaza ceasefire
It appears that Israel has announced an official cease-fire. Hopefully, the Hamas would comply to it. Otherwise, matters in the surrounding affected area would only get worsen. If the cease-fire agreement is successful, then the next stage would be rebuilding Gaza and burying the dead. Quote:
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2009-01-18, 02:25 | Link #571 | |
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2009-01-18, 02:33 | Link #572 |
KI NI NARIMASU!
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The analogy fails because rocks are not lethal and the bullets are.
More like explosive rocks that are being thrown at your house 24/7 52 weeks a year (making arguably bigger holes). Then yes I think shooting holes at particular points in my neighbors house to stop him from being able to throw explosive rocks at my house is justified. And I sure as hell won't care when someone down the road demands peace between me and the neighbor who just tried to kill me.
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2009-01-18, 02:42 | Link #573 | ||||
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I can imagine that it might work for a very short-term solution, but not in the long run. Once a younger generation was raised on stories of the attacks and the following suffering, they would likely be enraged and yet not know the feeling of suffering, themselves. They would likely fight, and Israel would once again have to do all that it could to instill fear into them to end the attacks.
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2009-01-18, 02:50 | Link #574 | |
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2009-01-18, 03:07 | Link #576 | |
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There will still be people who feel that Israel is the aggressor and that the rockets are being fired because Israel has done something to deserve it. You can be sure of that.
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2009-01-18, 05:22 | Link #577 |
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^ Exactly. By doing a ceasefire, Israel tells the world "Now we are doing what you want", and if it fails to solve the reason why they invaded in the first place, then Israel may be right after all, and the world organizations must just STFU because the ceasefire they so wanted didn't solve the problem.
Netanyahu was right in his video, maybe just for this once. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_ILdI9N_AY |
2009-01-18, 07:01 | Link #578 |
Um-Shmum
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i think you all are ignoring what the rockets attack actually do
its not just how many people they kill its a way to terrorize an entire population every day for several years imagine this you are on your way to school/work/whatever then an air raid siren starts blasting all over town you now have 15 seconds to run as fast as you can to the nearest shelter if no such shelter is close to you (which is likely) then you either hide behind a wall, or lie down on the ground with your hands over your head then there is that MIND GRIPING FEAR for a few seconds where all you can think of is "am i going to die now" its less then 1% chance that someone will get killed by this thing, but it just might happen and it might be me then there is the boom and then you get back up, and start wondering if someone you know had been hurt by it so you start calling everyone you know to make sure that everyone is safe if you have children, you need to call them and calm them down ("when are you coming home mommy") afterwards you get back to your day until the next time this happens (later that same day) and thats not even taking into account what happens if you do get hit or are present somewhere near a rocket strike (which causes, at least, minor panic) i have been to shderot a year ago for one day this happened about 4 times while i was there my words fail to get accross just how scary those few seconds are every time this happens after one day, i couldnt wait to get the hell away from there and this happens several times EVERYDAY FOR SEVERAL YEARS there are children in shderot and the surrounding areas for whom this is an almost natural thing its natural to be hiding from rocket attacks several times everyday just as its natural for other countries children to look both ways before crossing the road they simply dont know any other kind of reality latest study indicates that about 1/3 of the children in shderot suffer from PTSD and none of them are millitery targets, nor are they on palestinian ground at all (shderot is on israeli territory) its not a question of how many people die or are injured from the rocket attacks P.S so far hamas is not obeying the terms of the cease-fire yet over 10 rockets fired into israel since this morning and several attacks against IDF positions one rocket hit a farm in israel over three hundred israeli chickens lost their lives what a senseless waste of life
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Last edited by bladeofdarkness; 2009-01-18 at 09:11. |
2009-01-18, 10:05 | Link #579 | ||
is this so?
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However, Ledgem already had a counter-argument to it. Quote:
It seems Hamas is continuing the goal of the war that started way back in 1949. When neighboring arab countries refused the U.N decision on the creation of a home for the Jewish people. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Le...raeli_conflict Even if Hamas is defeated, as long as there is mentality that Israel should not exist. It's almost certain that a new muslim group would be formed to carry on the terrorist attacks.
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Last edited by Liddo-kun; 2009-01-18 at 11:50. |
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