Israel, Hamas & the Gaza Strip

[0utf0xZer0]

Wikipedia lists April as having the most rocket attacks from Gaza in 2008: 373.

That means if Hamas is still launching 20 rockets per day (seem to remember this number being mentioned) right now, they're still capable of launching the sort of attacks they were in the April 2008 timeframe.

Which to me means that Hamas will probably hold to the upcoming ceasefire until they feel the need to show off again. Anyone care to explain how this is different from the outcome we would have gotten from a more restrained war?

[Zippicus]

Originally Posted by WanderingKnight

I can't believe your head didn't explode out of the inherent contradiction of that phrase.

Besides, "preemptive wars" are probably the biggest bunch of bullshit since informercials. There's no such thing as a "preemptive invasion of another country". There's just the intention of invading the other country. Which makes it a war as far as I'm concerned.

Thanks USA for coining that term so nicely

Israel may have fired the first shot but Egypt started that war.

[bladeofdarkness]

it fired 373 rockets
it could have fired much more, but it kept up a stedy rate (right now 20 a day is ALL it can fire)
it used the threat of "if you dont do what we want, we keep firing 20 a day" but "if you try and act against us, we'll fire 100" a day
they were trying to create a balance of terror between it and israel
but since israel and hamas are NOT equal in terms of power, that doesnt really work if israel doesnt want it to
there is an old israeli's soldier saying (about trying to fight the IDF's burocratic system)
"if you piss on the army, it gets wet"
"if the army pisses on you, you drown"
same deal here

prior to this op
hamas felt that it can show off without israel responding (israel is at fault, for allowing them to continue to believe this)
it knows better now
it knows what the price would be
it knows that israel really CAN throw them out of power (it still might, if it doesnt hold to the cease-fire)
it wont be so willing to fire rockets again knowing that israel may respond in the same way again

[0utf0xZer0]

The problem with the deterrence thinking is that it assumes that it assumes Hamas cares that much about how successful it's military operations actually are.

Remember that New York Times article Vexx posted?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/14/op...1.html?_r=1&em

The objective of fighting for these guys is to show they have balls - it doesn't matter how bloodied they get, as look as they got a few good hits on you. They'll stop attacking so hard once they've proven their point... until they feel the need to prove the point again.

[bladeofdarkness]

hamas is now the de-facto goverment in gaza
it has an interest in keep this position (it is, among other things, a political movement after all)
and now, they know that losing it could just be a matter of firing a few rockets

[Vexx]

Here's an excellent article in the NYT that manages to meld both what bladesofdarkness contends and what some others contend about the various behaviors of Israel or Hamas. It demonstrates the problem of goals and intent versus actions on the ground and in the heat of the moment amongst other things.
"Weighing Crimes and Ethics in the Fog of Urban Warfare"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/wo.../17israel.html

And here's Hamas waving its testicles in the rut it seems perpetually stuck in:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/18/wo...t.html?_r=1&hp

The ceasefire will probably have the effect of corroding sympathy for Hama if they continue to fire rockets rather than work with diplomats to improve the living conditions for their registered voters.

I still think a primary underground motivation for the "police action" had to do with money ("gas deal") and power ("elections") ... but that's an assessment of politicians who remind me a lot of the yahoos who spent the last eight years running my country :P

@WK: and hopefully, the US's abject failure with pre-emptive war will be the last time you see that bogosity. Now if we could just get a rein on our covert "manipulation" to maintain dictatorships and governments unfavorable to a country's people....

[Ledgem]

Originally Posted by Shadow Minato

But...

The question is..

Why is Israel adopting "last resort" strategies right at the beginning of a military conflict?

As has already been pointed out, this is not the beginning of the military conflict. Israel has been engaging in military actions against various terrorist organizations, including Hamas, for many years now. Furthermore, I do not see how you can claim that Israel is engaging in "last resort" strategies. While civilian deaths are occurring as a result of their actions, the region occupied by the Palestinians has not been completely razed to the ground. I'd imagine that such a scenario would be a last-resort tactic.

Originally Posted by Shadow Minato

Actually, Israel isn't just unpopular in the Middle East; it is rather unpopular globally.

To be perfectly fair, when your neighbors are throwing rocks at your house, I don't think you'd care what the people living a few streets down think of you. This isn't to say that Israel shouldn't care about its world image, particularly given how globalization is closely linking everyone. But if Israel were too worried about its image to try to defend itself, I'd think that the people in power in the government were uncaring toward their citizens and somewhat petty.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Hezbollah has a larger stake in the Lebanese government now. They really don't want to risk losing that. An organization that has something to lose is going to be more careful than one that has nothing to lose. Rather than an example of a success of Israeli policies of intimidation, it's more an example that once a radical group gets it's hands in legitmate government, the concerns of keeping the country running get in the way of the radical agenda. In order to stay in power, Hezbollah is forced to moderate their position somewhat.

You're likely right. However, wasn't Hamas elected to the government in the Palestinian region? I believe that they even had considerable power there. Correct me if I'm wrong, but they still threw a coup against the government and effectively split the territory into two.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Contrast that with Hamas, who can claim they're responding to Israeli aggression and don't really have much to lose. They don't have to worry about being voted out of power, they can point to an Israeli blockade and checkpoints, they can point to the Israeli raid in November. All in all, a much more favorable climate for a radical agenda.

Why stop at November? They could have pointed to any point of Israeli military intervention. Heck, if Americans can still get riled up about 9/11 - a single attack that occurred 8.5 years ago - I'm sure that the Palestinians can be put into a frenzy by just mentioning a few of the many skirmishes that have occurred over the years. And just as none of the Americans questioned why there could possibly be anti-American sentiments from people in the Middle East, why would any Palestinians question the motives behind any of those Israeli military actions? People on this forum certainly aren't, and they're not even the ones who were bombed.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by Ledgem

Why stop at November? They could have pointed to any point of Israeli military intervention. Heck, if Americans can still get riled up about 9/11 - a single attack that occurred 8.5 years ago - I'm sure that the Palestinians can be put into a frenzy by just mentioning a few of the many skirmishes that have occurred over the years. And just as none of the Americans questioned why there could possibly be anti-American sentiments from people in the Middle East, why would any Palestinians question the motives behind any of those Israeli military actions? People on this forum certainly aren't, and they're not even the ones who were bombed.

It's easier to point to things that are happening now. Sure they can point to things the Israelis have done in the past and get support, but it won't be nearly as much as they can get by pointing to things the Israelis are doing right at this moment. Going back to your 9-11 example, today it's probably not going to convince anyone to support a war they wouldn't already be in favor of. However, after it happened it was used for exactly that. It might still be powerful in people's minds, but it doesn't have the sheer intensity that it once had. The same thing applies here. There may still be strong feelings about what the other side did years ago, but it won't have the intensity of what the other side did last week, and is still doing now.

[0utf0xZer0]

Originally Posted by Ledgem

As has already been pointed out, this is not the beginning of the military conflict. Israel has been engaging in military actions against various terrorist organizations, including Hamas, for many years now.

It's not the beginning of military conflict, but I think what he means to say here is the beginning of the current escalation in hostilities.

Originally Posted by Ledgem

To be perfectly fair, when your neighbors are throwing rocks at your house, I don't think you'd care what the people living a few streets down think of you. This isn't to say that Israel shouldn't care about its world image, particularly given how globalization is closely linking everyone. But if Israel were too worried about its image to try to defend itself, I'd think that the people in power in the government were uncaring toward their citizens and somewhat petty.

I personally judge Israel by two criterea: first, the conduct of it's military, second, by it's movement towards a political solution. I've discussed most of what I have to say about number one.

Number two is hard to judge because the path between our current situation and what I see as the desirable outcome (two state solution with a Palestinian government strong enough to bring rogue single state elements under control) is completely unclear. Certainly I expect progress to be made, but I imagine that navigating from A to B is going to require negotiating a security nightmare.

Originally Posted by Ledgem

Heck, if Americans can still get riled up about 9/11 - a single attack that occurred 8.5 years ago - I'm sure that the Palestinians can be put into a frenzy by just mentioning a few of the many skirmishes that have occurred over the years. And just as none of the Americans questioned why there could possibly be anti-American sentiments from people in the Middle East, why would any Palestinians question the motives behind any of those Israeli military actions?

Quite possibly the most depressing thing I've read in this thread, just because it puts the whole "lack of trust" issue into perspective.

One thing I'm interested in with this thread: if the Israeli military is banking on instilling fear of the IDF in the Gazan populace, how does this fear manifest itself? I still think Hamas will be more afraid of losing face than lives, but how does your average Palestinian respond? Can they even do anything constructive about it?

[Shadow Kira01]

Olmert announces Gaza ceasefire

It appears that Israel has announced an official cease-fire. Hopefully, the Hamas would comply to it. Otherwise, matters in the surrounding affected area would only get worsen. If the cease-fire agreement is successful, then the next stage would be rebuilding Gaza and burying the dead.

Originally Posted by Ledgem

As has already been pointed out, this is not the beginning of the military conflict. Israel has been engaging in military actions against various terrorist organizations, including Hamas, for many years now. Furthermore, I do not see how you can claim that Israel is engaging in "last resort" strategies. While civilian deaths are occurring as a result of their actions, the region occupied by the Palestinians has not been completely razed to the ground. I'd imagine that such a scenario would be a last-resort tactic.

To be perfectly fair, when your neighbors are throwing rocks at your house, I don't think you'd care what the people living a few streets down think of you. This isn't to say that Israel shouldn't care about its world image, particularly given how globalization is closely linking everyone. But if Israel were too worried about its image to try to defend itself, I'd think that the people in power in the government were uncaring toward their citizens and somewhat petty.

You got a good point. (laugh)

[LeoXiao]

To be perfectly fair, when your neighbors are throwing rocks at your house, I don't think you'd care what the people living a few streets down think of you. This isn't to say that Israel shouldn't care about its world image, particularly given how globalization is closely linking everyone. But if Israel were too worried about its image to try to defend itself, I'd think that the people in power in the government were uncaring toward their citizens and somewhat petty.

So taking a machine gun and shooting holes in the other guy's wall is a good response? Even if it kills one of his kids?

[Sylphic]

The analogy fails because rocks are not lethal and the bullets are.

More like explosive rocks that are being thrown at your house 24/7 52 weeks a year (making arguably bigger holes). Then yes I think shooting holes at particular points in my neighbors house to stop him from being able to throw explosive rocks at my house is justified. And I sure as hell won't care when someone down the road demands peace between me and the neighbor who just tried to kill me.

[Ledgem]

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

It's easier to point to things that are happening now. Sure they can point to things the Israelis have done in the past and get support, but it won't be nearly as much as they can get by pointing to things the Israelis are doing right at this moment.

I was specifically responding to what I perceived to be your implying that what Israel is doing now is making a situation ripe for extremism. You're likely correct, but I wanted to chime in and say that even if Israel weren't doing what it's doing then there would still be a situation ripe for extremism. Extremism of this sort has been occurring for a very, very long time, and it tends to happen whether Israel is active militarily or not. I don't really know that it's fair to say that Israel is actually making things worse for itself.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Going back to your 9-11 example, today it's probably not going to convince anyone to support a war they wouldn't already be in favor of. However, after it happened it was used for exactly that. It might still be powerful in people's minds, but it doesn't have the sheer intensity that it once had. The same thing applies here. There may still be strong feelings about what the other side did years ago, but it won't have the intensity of what the other side did last week, and is still doing now.

I respectfully disagree. I think that people are upset now over Iraq, but nobody is upset about Afghanistan (except for me, but I'm not upset to the point where I'll be organizing protests over it). I'm fairly certain that if an attack originating from one of the Arab nations occurred on American soil that 9/11 would be used as a rallying cry and there'd be calls for blood. If people have learned anything then there would be fewer than there were after 9/11, but if Obama (who is quite influential and highly regarded as of this point in time) backed aggression then I think many people would also be in favor of starting another war.

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

It's not the beginning of military conflict, but I think what he means to say here is the beginning of the current escalation in hostilities.

I'll let him clarify that for himself. He's made a number of statements in this thread before that would seem perfectly reasonable and not at all out of place if Israel and Hamas had just started fighting a month ago. A large part of my disagreements with him and my frustration over his posts dealt with his seeming lack of acknowledgement over the active fighting that has occurred in the many years before this escalated conflict opened up and drew the world's attention.

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

One thing I'm interested in with this thread: if the Israeli military is banking on instilling fear of the IDF in the Gazan populace, how does this fear manifest itself? I still think Hamas will be more afraid of losing face than lives, but how does your average Palestinian respond? Can they even do anything constructive about it?

Sure they can. If they're scared to death of an Israeli retaliation, then they can do everything in their power to silence anyone who would even speak of firing a rocket or setting off a bomb in Israel. They would do that because they would know that the fool who fired the rocket would invite multiple missiles sent back for every one he fired, and nobody would want to relive that pain. How realistic that type of reaction is depends on a few factors, not least of which is the pain threshold for the Palestinians (how much discomfort and disruption they're willing to endure before they give in entirely) and their willingness to fight back (which is related to their pain threshold).

I can imagine that it might work for a very short-term solution, but not in the long run. Once a younger generation was raised on stories of the attacks and the following suffering, they would likely be enraged and yet not know the feeling of suffering, themselves. They would likely fight, and Israel would once again have to do all that it could to instill fear into them to end the attacks.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Sylphic

The analogy fails because rocks are not lethal and the bullets are.

More like explosive rocks that are being thrown at your house 24/7 52 weeks a year (making arguably bigger holes). Then yes I think shooting holes at particular points in my neighbors house to stop him from being able to throw explosive rocks at my house is justified. And I sure as hell won't care when someone down the road demands peace between me and the neighbor who just tried to kill me.

More like firecrackers...sure you may get burned but the neighbor got killed.

[Thingle]

All the Israelis need is a footage of rockets being fired AFTER the cease-fire. Then maybe, MAYBE the world won't whine about their response anymore, whatever that may be.

[Ledgem]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

So taking a machine gun and shooting holes in the other guy's wall is a good response? Even if it kills one of his kids?

My statement had nothing to do with response, it was to point out the simple fact that if you have pressing matters to deal with right at your border, the approval of people far away is not quite as important.

Originally Posted by Thingle

All the Israelis need is a footage of rockets being fired AFTER the cease-fire. Then maybe, MAYBE the world won't whine about their response anymore, whatever that may be.

There will still be people who feel that Israel is the aggressor and that the rockets are being fired because Israel has done something to deserve it. You can be sure of that.

[Thingle]

^ Exactly. By doing a ceasefire, Israel tells the world "Now we are doing what you want", and if it fails to solve the reason why they invaded in the first place, then Israel may be right after all, and the world organizations must just STFU because the ceasefire they so wanted didn't solve the problem.

Netanyahu was right in his video, maybe just for this once.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_ILdI9N_AY

[bladeofdarkness]

i think you all are ignoring what the rockets attack actually do
its not just how many people they kill
its a way to terrorize an entire population every day for several years

imagine this
you are on your way to school/work/whatever
then an air raid siren starts blasting all over town
you now have 15 seconds to run as fast as you can to the nearest shelter
if no such shelter is close to you (which is likely) then you either hide behind a wall, or lie down on the ground with your hands over your head
then there is that MIND GRIPING FEAR for a few seconds where all you can think of is "am i going to die now"
its less then 1% chance that someone will get killed by this thing, but it just might happen
and it might be me
then there is the boom
and then you get back up, and start wondering if someone you know had been hurt by it
so you start calling everyone you know to make sure that everyone is safe
if you have children, you need to call them and calm them down ("when are you coming home mommy")
afterwards you get back to your day
until the next time this happens (later that same day)
and thats not even taking into account what happens if you do get hit
or are present somewhere near a rocket strike (which causes, at least, minor panic)

i have been to shderot a year ago for one day
this happened about 4 times while i was there
my words fail to get accross just how scary those few seconds are every time this happens
after one day, i couldnt wait to get the hell away from there

and this happens several times EVERYDAY
FOR SEVERAL YEARS
there are children in shderot and the surrounding areas for whom this is an almost natural thing
its natural to be hiding from rocket attacks several times everyday
just as its natural for other countries children to look both ways before crossing the road
they simply dont know any other kind of reality
latest study indicates that about 1/3 of the children in shderot suffer from PTSD
and none of them are millitery targets, nor are they on palestinian ground at all (shderot is on israeli territory)

its not a question of how many people die or are injured from the rocket attacks


P.S
so far
hamas is not obeying the terms of the cease-fire yet
over 10 rockets fired into israel since this morning
and several attacks against IDF positions
one rocket hit a farm in israel
over three hundred israeli chickens lost their lives
what a senseless waste of life

[Liddo-kun]

Originally Posted by Thingle

All the Israelis need is a footage of rockets being fired AFTER the cease-fire. Then maybe, MAYBE the world won't whine about their response anymore, whatever that may be.

This is almost exactly what I was thinking.
However, Ledgem already had a counter-argument to it.

Originally Posted by Ledgem

There will still be people who feel that Israel is the aggressor and that the rockets are being fired because Israel has done something to deserve it. You can be sure of that.

Sadly, what's happening in the Gaza strip is a cycle of violence that's hard to break. As someone already said before in this thread, Hamas isn't simply fighting to gain independence for the Gaza Strip. It's fighting for the destruction of Israel.

It seems Hamas is continuing the goal of the war that started way back in 1949.
When neighboring arab countries refused the U.N decision on the creation of a home for the Jewish people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Le...raeli_conflict

Even if Hamas is defeated, as long as there is mentality that Israel should not exist.
It's almost certain that a new muslim group would be formed to carry on the terrorist attacks.

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by Shadow Minato

Olmert announces Gaza ceasefire

A couple of days before Obama takes office. Not a coincidence, I suspect.