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Old 2012-11-04, 13:23   Link #31101
rogerpepitone
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Now we know Kyrie still holds a grudge against Asumu and that, by default, she transferred it on Battler as well. Why not to ruin Battler's love story as payback to Asumu?
George had been able to see Battler and Shannon together. Kyrie had not.

George would have wanted to hurt Shannon with his actions. He would have been able to see Shannon perk up a little when she heard that Battler had written letters; whatever Battler might have felt about her, whether Battler would ever return, George might be able to tell that she was carrying a torch for Battler, and that Battler was still a rival of sorts.

How exactly is Kyrie supposed to think she's ruining Battler's love story? Again, it's a girl he hasn't had contact with for three years, to whom he has made no effort to contact, to whom he wrote the letter only on somebody else's suggestion, for whom he declined his opportunity to see, whom Battler will, in all likelihood, never see again, at an age when "greatest love ever" turns to "we are so splitsville" in a week. There's no love story to ruin. (Alternately, if Asumu was anything like Eva, hooking Battler up with an orphan maid might be just as good of revenge.)

(Really, I think it's most likely that Battler never wrote a letter to Shannon. It's typical for Fukuins to leave after 3 years, and it would have been Shannon's seventh year on Rokkenjima. For all Battler knew, Shannon might have left years before.)
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Old 2012-11-04, 13:24   Link #31102
Renall
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One thing we know for a fact: All seven of the adults were in the chapel before midnight, when Beatrice met with them in that scene. Rosa included. So just going by a general purpose everybody-is-who-we-think-they-are argument, Rosa at the very least was aware of where everybody else ought to be. Since we don't know who was said what to and when in the chapel, or when everybody in it died, we run across an obvious problem where we know Rosa (or if you want to be insane, someone who appeared to be Rosa) left the chapel at some point. And that's about all we know.

However, if we're going to bother twisting the red into knots for something this silly, why not go all out? We already know that the official solution more or less acknowledges that dead doesn't necessarily mean physically biologically dead. So what if dead is merely incapable of distinguishing between "story" death and actual death? In other words: The six adults in the chapel were intended to be "dead" but not actually dead as part of a murder game perpetrated by Yasu. Rosa may or may not have been aware of this (either her sickness was genuine because of the quality of the makeup, or she didn't know it was fake). The adults were "killed" by the "culprit" of the story, Beatrice. This was all according to the plan.

This is supported by Kanon died in this room! because we know that Kanon was not biologically killed in Jessica's room. Rather, the "character" of Kanon "died" there. It's impossible for him to have actually physically died there. Actually, Turn makes this really easy because it never makes a blanket death declaration for anybody. It says they were "killed," but not that they "are dead."

If Beatrice's red makes no distinction between her "script" and actual murders, it's possible for somebody who is considered to have "died" in the story to still be alive... but it's also possible to kill them anyway, which is what Erika does in Dawn. As a result, there would be several people who potentially could still be alive after "dying" as long as it's somewhat ambiguous whether they really died. The First Twilight being the most obvious one:

Legend: Kyrie, Rudolf, Gohda, Krauss, Rosa, and Shannon are all never seen again after the FT. Kanon is never seen dead by Battler. The deaths of Eva/Hideyoshi and Genji/Kumasawa/Nanjo seem really hard to fake in any way, but I guess they're not seen again after their death is witnessed once.

Turn: The six in the chapel could have been faking (though if one was a culprit he or she could've real-killed the others later). Jessica's position makes it possible her death could well have been a story death. Kanon is never seen again. It seems unlikely that George/Gohda/Shannon are faking it, but there are also no murders after Shannon dies.

Banquet: The six in the closed room chain (Kinzo aside) are obviously potentially able to stay alive and only Shannon is ever seen again by anybody (and in the intended solution very clearly was still alive). Kyrie/Rudolf/Hideyoshi could have been faking. George probably not. Nanjo... most likely not but probably? Rosa and Maria definitely not.

Alliance: Well, basically anybody could've been alive right up until the time Battler found their body, and he only finds a couple of bodies before 6 AM of the 5th.

There is a certain delightful appeal in the idea that Shannon would've killed herself in a closed room to cast suspicion away from Kyrie after George and Gohda were killed (and she was perhaps wounded), only to have Kyrie wreck the whole thing by inviting Battler up to the study at the end to reveal her master plan, which would've broken Battler psychologically. But she isn't the only person who can actually stay alive by story-death red evasion. The obvious point is that so can Shkanon, which appears to be the intended solution. So could Jessica though, as she's alive in every episode if we consider Turn a story death. Granted, it'd be hard for her to be a culprit in most episodes because she's with Battler the whole time.

The biggest issue I have with Kyrie is actually her phone call in ep4. If she's the culprit why is she trying to embrace the magical narrative? Then again, maybe not... what if Shannon gets the drop on Kyrie, forces her at gunpoint to spin an outrageous story to Battler (so that he will not blame Kyrie), shoots her, and then goes to kill herself at the well?

A random note: Except in Banquet, Kyrie would always potentially be party to Beatrice's initial "hey this is what I'm gonna do you guys go along with it OK?" meeting. She also would've been in on anything discussed in the dining hall in End and in whatever discussion happened to fake a First Twilight in Dawn. However she's, once again, not the only adult who could've been in on that.
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Old 2012-11-04, 13:57   Link #31103
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Originally Posted by Renall
But she isn't the only person who can actually stay alive by story-death red evasion.
Indeed. This doesn't change regardless of whether we use a discrepancy between story/event or, in regards to the 1st twilight EP2, name switches or Kinzo being the 6th.

The only difference between Kyrie and, say, Gohda, is how her possible involvement would change the perspective on Chiru as a whole quite a bit, creating a strong link to EP8 in particular - it would add to the story, instead of making you wonder why half of the story even exists. Something that a lot of other characters don't have to that degree: maybe Gohda could do it all. I'd question Ryukishi's sanity though.

But alas, it's just silly talk anyway - t'was fun to work out a ridiculous solution via the red though, similar to the good ol' times of theory-crafting. Oh woe upon us, if we could forget the intended solutions and start again from square one.

Last edited by qno2; 2012-11-04 at 14:10.
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Old 2012-11-04, 16:05   Link #31104
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It WAS pretty heavy handed to have him drop dead like 5 minutes after giving everything to Yasu. But ... from Ryu's perspective, he pretty much HAD to die like that, or obviously he would've announced stuff to the entire household and his lawyers and stuff, in the morning.
Personally I found Kinzo's death in EP 7 one of the worst parts in Umineko as for me it's like... it's not realistic enough. Mind you, I'm not denying the possibility something like this happened but it seemed so... timely that it left me with an 'uh?' feeling. It really seemed too convenient and perfect that... I don't know, although possible it doesn't feel real.

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The timing of the remarriage and Ange's birth leads me to believe that Kyrie was pushed over the edge because she had actually become pregnant already. She would've killed Asumu if it meant legitimizing her child with Rudolf (and thus her relationship with him). He wouldn't be able to marry her if his wife were alive (and Ange would've been a bastard and Kyrie a single mother), so this is the perfect impetus for Kyrie's hatred of Asumu to finally boil over and force her hand.

Likewise, Rudolf wouldn't have any reason to marry again that quickly unless he was under a particular deadline. What seemed to bother Battler was the suddenness of that action. Rudolf and Kyrie don't normally act hastily, so there'd have to be a reason for that. They have to marry fast or it will become increasingly obvious that Rudolf was cheating on his late wife. Unfortunately, by marrying fast they also become suspicious, although Battler seems to have missed the signals and assumed it was for a different reason.

I forget how explicitly Kyrie brought this up, but I vaguely recall her dancing around the exact rationale in her talk with Jessica in Dawn. She may have said that outright at some point and I just forgot about it. Either way, it seems pretty obvious. Unfortunately it also makes Asumu's death seem incredibly convenient, which makes you wonder whether Kyrie was telling the truth that her death miraculously didn't require Kyrie to do anything. If it's true, then it becomes very suspicious as it means that Kyrie was essentially "blessed" by both Lambdadelta (with the certain will to kill Asumu) and Bernkastel (with the miracle that Asumu would die without Kyrie having to dirty her hands).
Well, Battler knew Rudolf was remarrying because Kyrie was pregnant and that this meant Rudolf had been cheating Asumu, so it's possible that Kyrie planned to kill Asumu when she found out she was expecting Ange.

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Kyrie also says, repeatedly, that she's always tried to be the brains for Rudolf because she thought that's what he wanted. Everyone else also acknowledges that Kyrie is smart and nearly every Kyrie/Rudolf plan is confirmed to have been her idea.

So I think we need to look at the motive for her, because it seems like she can convince Rudolf of things if she needs to and the idea will generally originate from her. Which isn't to say Rudolf even actually has to be involved, but if he is, it's probably because of her direction rather than the other way around.
I'm sort of wondering if things went like this:

Rudolf: Sure thing it would be really wonderful if I didn't have to share the inheritance with my siblings.

Kyrie: Yes, dear, I get what you wish me to do. Now please go get me an axe.

Rudolf: An axe? what for?

Kyrie: I'm going to slaughter your siblings as you wished. Now be a dear and help me murder them.

Rudolf: As I wish?

Kyrie: *waving axe* Yes, dear, that's what you wished just two second ago but don't think toa hard at it now and just follow my plan.

Rudolf: Well, after all you're the one who's smart so if you say I want this I probably do... now, where do we start?

Okay, so it probably didn't go like this but it's still interesting.

On a side note I've always wondered if Ange had really been left by her maternal grandparents because of a cold or because she was taken somehow as an hostage.

EP 4 goes to great lenghts to paint them as pretty ugly people who wouldn't hesitate to kill Ange so maybe Rudolf and Kyrie were desperate because the Sumadera were blackmailing them demanding a huge amount of money?
It would explain why they couldn't just content themselves with sharing it but they needed it all and because they would be willing to go to such great lenghts.
Rudolf is painted as pretty deep in troubles in Umineko and it would fit with the idea there are things from which Ange 'must be protected'.
It would be bad enough for her to know her parents killed her relatives but, if they had to do it, it'll be even worse.
It would also explain why Eva took Ange in instead than just leaving the daughter of the couple who killed her husband and son to the Sumadera, allowing her to become the new Ushiromiya heir.
Sure, blood isn't water but in Japan isn't so uncommon to adopt a heir and Eva could also have tried to get another child.
It'll explain also the amount of guards around Ange who previously apparently had none and the same applies to George who apparently went to a less secluded school. Sure, Eva is rich and now she doesn't have such a nice reputation, but only now she feels the need to have guards checking on her niece when her son was apparently left free to go around unguarded.

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So, I was thinking I would like to open a discussion on Our Confessions. Namely, what is it? Does such a story exist in Prime in the first place (even if unfound/unreleased)? If so, when was it written? Based on the meta-notes, which refer to the Siestas and Gaap, it was conceived at least after Banquet and probably Alliance. Assuming the meta-narrative follows the same timeline as Prime, that makes it impossible to be a genuine authored-pre-incident bottle-story. Yet it was thematically presented as such.

Then there's Dlanor's role. What does it mean for Dlanor to release the incomplete manuscript after Beatrice's death? Who, or what mechanism is Dlanor representing here?
Well, for personal preference and according to the theory Yasu= Ikuko I like to see Our Confession as something that Ikuko/Beato started to plan/write let's say around the middle of EP 4 then got discouraged and dropped middle way due to what happened in EP 4.

Another option is that Our confession was really a story written by Yasu pre incident, but one she didn't finish/didn't release so it remained on Rokkenjima. Toya might have found a way to snuck on Rokkenjima and might have found it, either unfinished or incomplete.

A 'nice' theory would be that the police found it later on Rokkenjima along with... let's say Shannon's diary in which she details her plan to have a mystery game based on the mystery stories she wrote, possibly along with the fact Kinzo was already dead. The police might suspect someone hacked it or that something went wrong during it so they continued investigations in secret as they possibly can't say if everyone who was on Rokkenjima is dead and hope to use it as a trump card to get a confession or something.
So they keep this info as a secret and, at the same time, they didn't need to investigate further on Shannon or the messages because they already knew she was behind them but believed she was merely organizing a game.

However as no other survivor came up and they can't connect Eva to the crime due to lack of proof and lack of a confession from her side, the third message goes forgotten (or placed in Dlanor's custody if you prefer).
Then, years later, possibly after Eva's death, a policeman might end up talking about it, disclosing it to someone else.

Or they might have believed her innocent and have felt pity for her (a young servant girl, who was orphaned, who was about to marry with someone she loves, who innocently wrote mystery tales and that, due to an horrible coincidence ended dead along with everyone around her and people by mistake even suspected her mysteryfantasy tales to be a retelling of the truth) so they didn't want to let the public know she was behind whose messages.

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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
Actually the red when the six were killed in the chapel, the culprit was inside the chapel! is really a bane for this line of thought.

Okay, maybe we can twist semantics in a way that makes Yasu "the reason" for Kinzo's death as portrayed in EP7, the "culprit", but why did he die in the chapel then? Did he ask to be brought there in his dying moments? That's kind of stretching it, there are no hints. If anything we could say that Kinzo might think that a chapel, especially the one he build for himself and Beatrice, is a fitting place for his end. After all, he has finally reunited with Beatrice - therefore he can walk through the chapel-doors together with her.

Setting aside that Kyrie definitely wouldn't be there, so we'd need to assume that "the culprit" refers to the culprits of their respective "crime" (in quotationmarks for Yasu); therefore it'd refer to both Yasu AND Kyrie... again, this is stretching it.

But considering the basis of this theory, that Shkanon, Yasu's self-insert, is taking the blame for a crime she didn't even commit in those stories (of course only in relation to this theory), it'd be fitting to call her just a "culprit" (mind the quotationmarks), while Kyrie, the one she is supposedly covering for Battler's and Ange's peace of mind, is a culprit (mind the lack of quotationmarks) - both of them could be seen as one.

This kinda WMG-ed out of control. Completely.
Considering that to reach the gold you had to pass through the chapel it's possible that Yasu wasn't taken to Kinzo's room all dressed up as EP 7 says but that she met him in the chapel.

Though I honestly doubt Kyrie was supposed to be a culprit for EP 1 & 2.
She might have had some chances to kill someone in Ep 3, 4 & 5 but I don't think that's the case with Ep 1 & 2.

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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
George had been able to see Battler and Shannon together. Kyrie had not.

George would have wanted to hurt Shannon with his actions. He would have been able to see Shannon perk up a little when she heard that Battler had written letters; whatever Battler might have felt about her, whether Battler would ever return, George might be able to tell that she was carrying a torch for Battler, and that Battler was still a rival of sorts.
George didn't know about Battler's letter until Kyrie mentions it. She hands him an envelope that contains several letters. He pulls them out and hands them. Shannon witnessed the whole thing along with Jessica, Kyrie, Rosa and Maria. Although Jessica, Kyrie Rosa and Maria likely didn't watch him carefully Shannon most likely did. After he handed out the letters one by one after reading the name written on the envelopes (in order they are George's, Jessica's, Maria's and Ange's) he handed the empty, big envelope to Shannon who checked it was really empty. Note that George and Jessica opened their letters right then.

Now I think it would be pretty troublesome for George to hide a letter all of sudden while Shannon and other people are watching him when he doesn't even know if said letter is the first, the second or the third he'll pull out. Only way he could do it is if there wasn't a letter for him so he claimed Shannon's letter was his but then why shouldn't Battler write him when he even took care to write Ange and Maria?

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How exactly is Kyrie supposed to think she's ruining Battler's love story? Again, it's a girl he hasn't had contact with for three years, to whom he has made no effort to contact, to whom he wrote the letter only on somebody else's suggestion, for whom he declined his opportunity to see, whom Battler will, in all likelihood, never see again, at an age when "greatest love ever" turns to "we are so splitsville" in a week. There's no love story to ruin. (Alternately, if Asumu was anything like Eva, hooking Battler up with an orphan maid might be just as good of revenge.)
Yet we know that after 6 years, when he learnt Shannon and George were together he regretted not coming back and felt jealous so he definitely felt something for her.
And I've already explained how Kyrie might have figured out Battler had a special liking for Shannon.
Now, personally I wouldn't have thought Shannon was still obsessing over Battler after 6 years in which neither of them tried to contact the other and a new boyfriend who's willing to marry her but if she's doing it why Battler couldn't have had feelings for her after 3 years and no girlfriend in sight?
He also likely needed time to cope with his mother's loss so maybe it's not so weird he didn't feel like being social. Now things are calming down and he might have thought: "What about Shannon? Did she ever liked me?"
Because mind you, Shannon thinks Battler promised her something but all she did promise to him was she'll give him an answer, one that might be 'yes' but that also can be 'no'. There's no promise from her part in fact he said he would accept whatever decision she would take.
And we go back to the sentence I quoted about girls rarely answering to questions.

Kyrie on the other side might not know that the letter was Battler's attempt to contact Shannon after 3 years, she might just have noticed he didn't consider her the same as the other maids. By reading the letter she would know if she was right or wrong and, as I said, there was a perfect cover up story to explain why the letter had been open.

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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
(Really, I think it's most likely that Battler never wrote a letter to Shannon. It's typical for Fukuins to leave after 3 years, and it would have been Shannon's seventh year on Rokkenjima. For all Battler knew, Shannon might have left years before.)
Personally, if Battler hadn't implied he had feelings for Shannon, that he still felt something for her, he wasn't Kyrie's son who couldn't let go of the man she wanted not even after he married and had a kid with another woman and we didn't have Shannon who remained hooked up to Battler despite 6 years of no contact and another man (and another woman if we consider Jessica) in her life I wouldn't have considered the possibility either of them still had feelings for the other.
They were kids for crying out loud, kids who barely saw each other during the year. However in the Umineko world all this doesn't count and we even have George who stubbornly set himself on stealing Battler's childhood crush not mentioning he's much older than Shannon and really shouldn't be interested in her. Isn't he 5 years older? Would a boy his age care about the attentions of a child of Shannon's age?
So in Umineko's world apparently love has no age and it can't be swayed so easily (that or the Ushiromiya have a pretty obsessive personality so, once they decide on a person they can't move over).

Of course it's also possible Battler didn't think Shannon was still working there. He was surprised when he found out she was still working there after 10 years.

It's just there's space in Umineko to built up a theory about Battler writing a letter and that letter not reaching Shannon for a reason that's not George.
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Old 2012-11-04, 17:24   Link #31105
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Going off of the idea of Kyrie and Rudolf being the intentional red herring culprits, the whole thing about the 'heart' would make a lot more sense. Considering it's sorta possible to put Kyrie as responsible for all the killings, perhaps her lack of motive is Ryukishi's way of letting the player distinguish from Ryukishi's fake solution from his intended solution.
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Old 2012-11-05, 06:25   Link #31106
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Personally I found Kinzo's death in EP 7 one of the worst parts in Umineko as for me it's like... it's not realistic enough. Mind you, I'm not denying the possibility something like this happened but it seemed so... timely that it left me with an 'uh?' feeling. It really seemed too convenient and perfect that... I don't know, although possible it doesn't feel real.
I always thought this was less "Shannon revealed herself to Kinzo and then he died" and more "Kinzo was dying so Genji revealed Shannon to him". Genji throws some serious hints Shannon's way about the epitaph, and most certainly knew the solution, so I assumed he just orchestrated the meeting because Kinzo was on the outs.
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Old 2012-11-05, 09:21   Link #31107
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His death is itself still portrayed as fairly intensely farcical, though. He sort of goes from being fine to dropping dead on the spot. It'd have maybe felt a little less stupid if Kinzo was rather clearly on his deathbed at the time and just sort of slipped away after he saw what he wanted. If it was meant to be a metaphor or something I'm not entirely sure what the purpose of it was.
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Old 2012-11-05, 15:07   Link #31108
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His death is itself still portrayed as fairly intensely farcical, though. He sort of goes from being fine to dropping dead on the spot. It'd have maybe felt a little less stupid if Kinzo was rather clearly on his deathbed at the time and just sort of slipped away after he saw what he wanted. If it was meant to be a metaphor or something I'm not entirely sure what the purpose of it was.

Exactly.
It could have also worked if he went to bed, maybe promising he would aknowledge her to everyone the day after and then never wake up.

I've always wondered if the whole thing didn't suffer of a huge embellishment in the narration. Maybe it was in front of Kinzo that Nanjo and Co mentioned Yasu's wound, she started going to hysteric, Kinzo grew agitated and this caused him to have a heart attack.
And here you've Yasu 'killing him' without even meaning to which could worsen her psychological problems as she would feel she's the one to blame for the dead of the father she so wanted to have.
Never mention that if afterward she demands to know why she'd been kept away from him the answers she can get are either

-Natsuhi might have tried again to kill you
-Kinzo might have taken advantage of you as he did with your mother

or both. That's something that surely doesn't help a person to calm down.
However we don't know if Kinzo was present and still alive when Yasu went into an 'I'm furniture' mode and we've no idea how Genji explained her why she wasn't raised by her father.
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Old 2012-11-07, 11:46   Link #31109
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Does the "ninth twilight" occur at the end of October 5th, or the end of October 6th?
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Old 2012-11-07, 12:46   Link #31110
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Supposedly, the explosion is keyed to Midnight, or 00:00 of October 6th. Which is 24:00 of October 5th. Saturday is the 4th, Sunday is the 5th. The game ends at the end of Sunday/start of Monday.

EDIT: Random thought rereading "Forgery no.XXX." Ronove mentions having been with Evil Battler in a couple of forgeries, notably Trinity and Land. One thing I was wondering... while we don't know specifically what the contents of Land were, can we infer from that TIP that it may have contained a Battler culprit theory? The "Battler" that is in that particular TIP is the evil/Black version, who represents that theory.

Battler specifically brings this up with Ronove, pointing out that if he's present in the forgery that means that his piece can "run wild," and that he wants to be the one to kill the family. He also suggests this is his role and that it's different from the normal Piece-Battler's role.

So from that, if he was present in Land, then it would seem that the regular Piece-Battler would not be. Was then the design of Land supposed to feature an unreliable narrator Battler who was actually the culprit, with Vergilius as the detective? A sort of proto-End?
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Old 2012-11-07, 15:17   Link #31111
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Seems like it. It also seems to indirectly imply that Battler Culprit Theory would've thus been the red herring answer we're meant to dismiss in the larger narrative instead of Eva Theory.
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Old 2012-11-07, 20:01   Link #31112
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Supposedly, the explosion is keyed to Midnight, or 00:00 of October 6th. Which is 24:00 of October 5th. Saturday is the 4th, Sunday is the 5th. The game ends at the end of Sunday/start of Monday.

EDIT: Random thought rereading "Forgery no.XXX." Ronove mentions having been with Evil Battler in a couple of forgeries, notably Trinity and Land. One thing I was wondering... while we don't know specifically what the contents of Land were, can we infer from that TIP that it may have contained a Battler culprit theory? The "Battler" that is in that particular TIP is the evil/Black version, who represents that theory.

Battler specifically brings this up with Ronove, pointing out that if he's present in the forgery that means that his piece can "run wild," and that he wants to be the one to kill the family. He also suggests this is his role and that it's different from the normal Piece-Battler's role.

So from that, if he was present in Land, then it would seem that the regular Piece-Battler would not be. Was then the design of Land supposed to feature an unreliable narrator Battler who was actually the culprit, with Vergilius as the detective? A sort of proto-End?
It's possible. Though it's also possible that the name 'Land' was chosen just because fans knew it and that the Land mentioned in the tip and the original Land had nothing in common...

Or that Black Battler is just a piece for the fantasy side, sort of like EvaBeatrice isn't Eva. In the fantasy side we'll see Black Battler going around killing people while in truth the killer is always Yasu. Though yes, we'll need someone else to play detective.

Really, I would like to read Land... unless Land is actually the mystery in Our Confession...
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Old 2012-11-08, 02:04   Link #31113
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There is also pretty clear implication who "everyone else" refers to in EP6. Then Shkanon happened.
Late response is late, but those two situations are only vaguely similar, in that the group members aren't strictly listed by name (like "Kyrie's group" in EP4). The differences, which are pretty meaty, are that
1. "everyone else" is a group that should comprise of people who aren't in either of the other two groups, which cumulatively account for all 18 people, and
2. "everyone else" is resolved with Shkanonigans, which I wasn't aware Kyrie had access to.
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Old 2012-11-08, 09:23   Link #31114
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Really, I would like to read Land... unless Land is actually the mystery in Our Confession...
Fairly certain it is not for several reasons.
  • We know Land was supposed to contain a male Virgilia in a sort of detective role, maybe similar to an Erika-type character. Our Confession's forgery doesn't really have this.
  • If "Forgery No.XXX" is accurate, Battler may have been the culprit of Land or at least that would have been a theory which would likely have been advanced in Land. Our Confession makes no such suggestion, even of Battler as an accomplice.
  • Beatrice and Dlanor suggest the forgery in Our Confession is more a draft of sorts. Land was, at least according to Twilight, a fully-fledged story that was lost.
  • Land was supposedly very difficult, but the mystery in Our Confession seems about on par with Turn or Banquet. Ryukishi supposedly abandoned Land for ep3 because of his concern that the audience might not respond well to its difficulty, and it seems unlikely that would've been the major concern were this the story he was going to use.
  • It wouldn't suit the idea of Land being "lost" for him to just reveal it, and if he did reveal it, why wouldn't he just call it Land or a draft thereof and make that abundantly clear to everyone? He gains nothing from providing a forgery that might be Land if his goal was to stop questions about it by releasing the outline.
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Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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Battler Solves The Logic Error
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Old 2012-11-08, 14:31   Link #31115
qno2
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Late response is late, but those two situations are only vaguely similar, in that the group members aren't strictly listed by name (like "Kyrie's group" in EP4). The differences, which are pretty meaty, are that
1. "everyone else" is a group that should comprise of people who aren't in either of the other two groups, which cumulatively account for all 18 people, and
2. "everyone else" is resolved with Shkanonigans, which I wasn't aware Kyrie had access to.
I am talking about the general LOLred-trickery that could be applied.

The narrative implied that "everyone else" means Rudolf, Krauss, Jessica, a few others I can't remember, and, as we are led to believe, Kanon. Because the red didn't name each of them it was possible for Kanon to "escape", since "he" was never there to begin with, at least not as a human being in a world without magic. Due to the imprecise nature of this red, one person that we thought was included in the red statement... wasn't.

The red for 'the six that were killed' doesn't name each of them, but by the narrative we assume that it's about Kyrie, Rudolf, Krauss, Natsuhi, Eva, Hideyoshi. With a heavy load (!) of assumptions (which are ultimately all bullshit anyway considering that it's not an intended answer) we can construct Kinzo as the sixth, therefore the red is not accounting for the "seventh" person. Due to the imprecise nature of this red one person can be added to the situation, enabling a person that we thought was included in red the statement to "escape" the red-proclaimed death (without going all meta).

At least I think that it's a similar mechanism. Or it would be one, if the latter had been used.

Of course I agree with the various notions that speak against the true-Kyrie-fake-Shkanon-culprit. Although it is an amusing thought, having Shkanon run around to stake the bodies that Kyrie left behind (Benny Hill-style; though Shkanon got lazy in EP3 and 4) to force Battler into believing a witch did it, so he can reject the notion of witches EXISTing in general to their 'epic' battle of incompetence vs. ahaha.wav ... alright alright, let's go with the intended answer again - enough fooling around.



Sometimes I get the feeling that Ryukishi scrapping Land was the first step to what some call the general derailment of Chiru (personally I still liked it overall but ... we all know the general reactions to it). Hopefully he won't have any mercy with his readers next time he writes a When They Cry (assuming he does).
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Old 2012-11-08, 15:30   Link #31116
jjblue1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Fairly certain it is not for several reasons.
  • We know Land was supposed to contain a male Virgilia in a sort of detective role, maybe similar to an Erika-type character. Our Confession's forgery doesn't really have this.
  • If "Forgery No.XXX" is accurate, Battler may have been the culprit of Land or at least that would have been a theory which would likely have been advanced in Land. Our Confession makes no such suggestion, even of Battler as an accomplice.
  • Beatrice and Dlanor suggest the forgery in Our Confession is more a draft of sorts. Land was, at least according to Twilight, a fully-fledged story that was lost.
  • Land was supposedly very difficult, but the mystery in Our Confession seems about on par with Turn or Banquet. Ryukishi supposedly abandoned Land for ep3 because of his concern that the audience might not respond well to its difficulty, and it seems unlikely that would've been the major concern were this the story he was going to use.
You're equating Ryukishi's Land with... let's call it Prime Land, Twilight Land and Forgery No XXX Land.

While they can be one and the same that's not necessary true and Ryukishi might have recycled the name for amusement purpose.

Let's now assume that there was a message in the bottle that matched with 'Land' (would it be titled as such or the names of the messages in the bottles were given later?).

As only 2 were found this third message supposedly got lost confirming Beato's words in Twilight.

This means no forger would know about it therefore if a forgery mentions 'Land' then it's merely due to a casuality.

Now, we've 'Land' mentioned in the meta of Twilight and in the magic scene of Forgery No XXX (we've a PieceBattler who can be moved on Rokkenjima by the witches).

Forgery No XXX doesn't seem to be written by Toya so if the author refers, in the magic scene to a tale called 'Land', he's either making the name up or taking it from someone else's forgery. Not from a message in the bottle. This means 'Forgery No XXX' might not contain info about the real 'Land' but about... someone else's Land.

Now, Twilight is written by Toya. and the 'Land' mentioning supposedly happens in the meta.
If the meta was Toya's creation could Toya know about the true 'Land'? Well, it's easy to assume he figured out or was told there were more than 2 tales so he could have named one of the tales that were never found 'Land'. Yasu might have given him some details about it but, if the tale was tossed in the sea, Battler/Toya never read it so we can't say how much he knows of that tale (and after all we don't even know how he spent those days on Rokkenjima and how much time Yasu had to tell him everything about herself that's used for writing EP 7 as well as 'Land').
If the meta is Ange's creation it's hard to picture Ange might know something about 'Land' and 'Land' serves just as the name for a lost tale.

There's also something interesting to consider. If the original 'Land' was supposed to be... let's call it the story in place of 'Banquet', was it supposed to be a message in the bottle or a forgery? Because 'Banquet' is a forgery.

Now... Our Confession. In Our confession there's basically no mention of Battler whatsoever as an acting/present character. It's as if Battler's action/reactions would be written later. Due to this we can't know if he'll ever be suspected like it happened in Ep 2. All we can say is that the plot presented doesn't seem to require him as an accomplice.
(Actually we've such a serious lack of Battler I can even suspect he slept hrough the whole thing... -_-)

Vergilius, for all we know, might have been a meta only character, let's say like a third witch/wizard, and there's not much meta in the story.

Our confession as a mystery is rather easy because there's no mystery at all. We're told immediately what's going on, we aren't left to suspect that our theory is wrong. In addition we've a lot of knowledge we didn't have previously.

The chain closed room isn't a problem for anyone anymore, nor would be Shannon's disappearance and suicide. We also knew the servants were accomplices.

We don't even consider another theory beside Yasu did it, while in other episodes we could suspect about Eva or Kyrie.

Maybe, if Our confession had been presented to us earlier and in the same format as the other games we might have found it difficult. As it is to use Ryukishi's words:

Quote:
If the answer is already out, it’s laughable to try and hide it with difficult riddles.
Though my idea isn't that Our confession was Land exactly as it was but that the mystery in it was the one that, more or less, was supposed to go in Land.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
  • It wouldn't suit the idea of Land being "lost" for him to just reveal it, and if he did reveal it, why wouldn't he just call it Land or a draft thereof and make that abundantly clear to everyone? He gains nothing from providing a forgery that might be Land if his goal was to stop questions about it by releasing the outline.
You aren't really asking me to tell you what's in Ryukishi's mind, are you? Because I for first don't get why he did some choices in regard to the main Umineko so it can't really be expected I can explain what is and what isn't in his mind.

This doesn't mean he couldn't have changed his mind or recycled Land's plot for this sidestory. After all here he doesn't have the problem to hide the answer as he reveals it.
In a way it's an interesting way to deal with the problem. This way he doesn't have to try to hide the answer.

And anyway I'm not saying 'Our Confession' is 'Land'. Just that there's the possibility its mystery and Land's will match but why to create a completely new mystery that has to be anyway exposed fully to the readers when there was already one available in Land?

Anyway, as Land's story was closed in a catbox after all, we'll never know the truth.
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Old 2012-11-08, 21:20   Link #31117
Valkama
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Well according to Ryukishi, the tricks for land seem to have been divided between EP4~6. I wonder if things like Battler not being Asumu's Child in EP4, the Battler culprit theory in EP5 and the Detective becoming the Culprit in EP6 were key things of Land. Come to think of it, EP5 and EP6 really like to make Battler seem like the culprit. Maybe the ending where Beatrice saves Battler was due to something like the Logic Error situation.
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Old 2012-11-08, 21:36   Link #31118
Ryuudou
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Supposedly, the explosion is keyed to Midnight, or 00:00 of October 6th. Which is 24:00 of October 5th. Saturday is the 4th, Sunday is the 5th. The game ends at the end of Sunday/start of Monday.
Thank you. I was asking because in the Episode 4 tea party a part of it is dedicated to Battler simply playing detective and exploring the island after everyone has supposedly died except Yasu.

Something to note though is that it takes place on the 6th... unless I made a mistake? I recently read it and I'm fairly sure it takes place on the 6th though. I noticed that R07 goes out of his way to put in Battler's narrative that he looked at the remaining half of Shannon's face, and recognized it to be "her" when logically it has to be a fake corpse as Yasu met with Battler. I'm thinking that either it never occurred because it's impossible for someone to be alive on the 6th, and R07 used the entire Episode 4 Battler Island Investigation scene as a red herring to be able to put falsehoods into Battler's detective perspective (because he wasn't alive during the stated time-frame), or that he (Battler) was simply fatigued or not in a state where he could reason well and made a mistake as I don't believe he slept during the 5th, and everyone was dead by the night of the 4th when he met Yasu in front of the mansion.

I just found that moment particularly peculiar, because Battler was alone, went up to the corpse, and essentially said "Yes. This is her". Makes me wonder what R07's intentions of it were at the time when also considering this supposedly takes place on the 6th.
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Old 2012-11-08, 22:04   Link #31119
Valkama
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Originally Posted by Ryuudou View Post
I noticed that R07 goes out of his way to put in Battler's narrative that he looked at the remaining half of Shannon's face, and recognized it to be "her" when logically it has to be a fake corpse as Yasu met with Battler.
Beatrice only fought Battler in Meta. She never talks to Battler face to face on the island, well she could have considering the time gap but there is no evidence that she did. Logic states that Yasu is dead by the well as...

And right now, there is no one other than you on this island. The only one alive on this island is you. Nothing outside the island can interfere.

Even though people have found a way to weasel their way out of some truths, this one is pretty solid. Yasu is dead. Besides Ryukishi stated in his interview that Yasu just used a gun trick by the well to disguise the suicide.
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Old 2012-11-09, 06:30   Link #31120
Cao Ni Ma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryuudou View Post
Thank you. I was asking because in the Episode 4 tea party a part of it is dedicated to Battler simply playing detective and exploring the island after everyone has supposedly died except Yasu.

Something to note though is that it takes place on the 6th... unless I made a mistake? I recently read it and I'm fairly sure it takes place on the 6th though. I noticed that R07 goes out of his way to put in Battler's narrative that he looked at the remaining half of Shannon's face, and recognized it to be "her" when logically it has to be a fake corpse as Yasu met with Battler. I'm thinking that either it never occurred because it's impossible for someone to be alive on the 6th, and R07 used the entire Episode 4 Battler Island Investigation scene as a red herring to be able to put falsehoods into Battler's detective perspective (because he wasn't alive during the stated time-frame), or that he (Battler) was simply fatigued or not in a state where he could reason well and made a mistake as I don't believe he slept during the 5th, and everyone was dead by the night of the 4th when he met Yasu in front of the mansion.

I just found that moment particularly peculiar, because Battler was alone, went up to the corpse, and essentially said "Yes. This is her". Makes me wonder what R07's intentions of it were at the time when also considering this supposedly takes place on the 6th.
No it happens on the 5th. What makes EP4 different from the others is that the game starts in earnest on the 4th. Battler meets "Beatrice" at midnight, goes berserk for a few hours after seeing Maria's corpse and then starts playing detective after he calms down.

This laps of time could be used to carry out things, its rather risky in that Battler could find out but its still possible.
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