2010-01-06, 02:18 | Link #2021 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2009
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I'm sure I overlooked something or one of my premises is invalid so please take a look so I know if to refine this or throw it out. Spoiler for Long reasoning chain:
Therefore I purpose two possibilities, the two that I was not able to rule out, these are not mutually exclusive and I don't like either of them, so feel free to point out possibilities I overlooked, or assumptions you think I made in error. I. Rokkenjima is not a closed circle the crime is possible for the boat captain who knew about the hidden harbor and was mentioned in episode one and shown in episode 4 to know about the hidden harbor. II. Knox's rules do not apply to the game. |
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2010-01-06, 03:17 | Link #2022 | |
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Join Date: Jun 2009
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Spoiler for Spoiled for length.:
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2010-01-06, 05:13 | Link #2023 | |
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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Spoiler for To keep it short, information from EP6 removed:
Question 6: She was well prepared to die in every episode. Since even if she died, Genji and Shannon would accomplish the remaining plan for her (EP2). Question 8: She was still the one who planned the death of the sixes and Hideyoshi while framing Natsuhi. She had a abrupt change of heart after she knew that Battler was her son based on inference from Rudolf's few words (particularly the sentence"It is related to your birth"). She realized Rudolf really loved her and he eradicated every other family members to make the Rudolf's family the only beneficiary in the end. The 19th man scene did not occur in other episode since Rudolf did not tell it was related to Battler's birth (EP1) and no one solved the epitaph so early in the game so as to prevent any other death from happening. The ring was slipped into the envelop after using it to seal the letter, through the small gap as the flap was not completely sealed. Last edited by ijriims; 2010-01-06 at 05:24. |
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2010-01-06, 07:32 | Link #2024 | |||
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Join Date: Dec 2006
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A few things in here to respond to, I guess I'll work backwards...
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Understanding that, there are no problems with the theory that the children went somewhere and then died. After Erika stopped her vigil of the guesthouse when Battler "discovered" the corpses in the morning, Erika failed to verify that the corpses were in the guesthouse, or that no one left the guesthouse. Her Kinzo investigation was limited entirely to the mansion, and allowed for the possibility that Kinzo had left through Natsuhi's window as they approached her room. Considering that the adults actually did come to the guesthouse from the mansion, it was fine for people who are not Kinzo to have left the mansion, and it's certainly possible that someone carried Krauss somewhere outside the mansion and then killed him. The only problem is Genji, who never left the mansion after 24:00... But that murder was possible for people other than Natsuhi, even before the morning. Erika's theory hinged on the argument that only Natsuhi could have killed the victims in the guesthouse before Battler woke up. Anyone in the mansion could have killed Genji after the morning, and Erika herself was not responsible for the seals placed in the mansion. Eva is confirmed in red to have been in the dining hall until 1:00 AM. She, or anyone else in the dining hall, could have killed Genji between the time when she left the dining hall and placed the seal on the door. Therefore Erika did not see any worth in calling attention to Genji's corpse alone, as she could not ensure her own perfect alibi for Eva. Quote:
1) Remember, The sin I am now demanding that you remember is not between Ushiromiya Battler and Beatrice. Granted, there are some ways you can "interpret" the red to fit these regardless, but there are other explanations. Examples of other targets: Maria, Asumu. 2) Keep in mind that there can be more than one Beatrice. Beatrice doesn't need to fit all these conditions. 4) Kumasawa was also listed in all of those. She is my current "Beatrice," but I'm basing this on your own criteria. 7) If Beatrice is always the killer, then there is one more criteria you need to add - she must have a reason to follow the epitaph for her murders, and prepare the letters about the epitaph, but not stop (or at least not be able to tell) when the epitaph is solved (Ep3, Ep5) despite knowing where the gold is (Ep2 first twilight.) Quote:
About this quote - I don't think Ronove's quote really applies to episode 1. A red truth that forbids mistaken autopsies is not the same thing as a red truth that forbids body doubles. The definition of a body double is something other than a person's corpse being called their corpse - which is exactly what Ronove suggests as possible for episode 5. The red isn't impenetrable, but at best Hideyoshi, Nanjo, and Kanon must lie. Also a possibility I'd failed to consider before about the second twilight - what if it were actually Hideyoshi dead on the bed and Eva alive in the shower? George's scream wouldn't need to be an act, and Eva is still free to dress up as Beatrice for the finale, ensuring that all the hints make sense. |
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2010-01-06, 11:10 | Link #2025 | ||
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Chicago
Age: 40
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What else is there? Can you point me in the right direction? Quote:
Christe eleison. Kyrie eleison. Anyways, I doubt the Sumadera family would confuse who their prized firstborn daughter is. And doesn't Kasumi look strikingly similar to Kyrie? Last edited by TeeHee; 2010-01-06 at 13:34. Reason: Restored lost context. |
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2010-01-06, 11:49 | Link #2026 | |
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My thought was that Beatrice (1952 one) was intially one of Sumadera family's wife, political marriage of course (Germany, Italy and Japan as the Axis, I am sure Sumadera family played a major role in military government of Japan pre- and during WWII). She ran away from Sumadera family after meeting Kinzo. Because of her status, Kinzo could not make her the second wife but only a secret-lover (both were in a marriage, so it was an adultery, which could not be exposed even Kinzo disregarded what the social norms most of the time) Kasumi was a half-blooded sister to Kyrie I suppose (Kyrie's father latter remarried a different wife, probably the Sumadera family treated the run-away-Beatrice as dead and quickly arranged another political marriage). That's why only Kyrie had a so westernized name but not Kasumi. |
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2010-01-06, 12:49 | Link #2027 | |
Naysayer?Fanboy?Wiseacre?
Join Date: Dec 2005
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__________________
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2010-01-06, 13:05 | Link #2028 | |
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Age: 40
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1) I regard the red truth as a constraint, not a restraint. Beatrice is dead, so there is no conflict. (For clarification, I always make the distinction between Beatrice and "Beatrice" with quotation marks.) 4) Since it's my criteria, I'll add that the female playing "Beatrice" should be aged 50 and below. By that I mean I doubt she has a secret fountain of youth in the servant's waiting room. By the way, did you mean to say that she could be "Beatrice" solely on my analysis, or did you mean she actually is your #1 suspect? |
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2010-01-06, 14:30 | Link #2029 | |
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The second part indicates that she is my current "#1 Beatrice suspect" for reasons that weren't necessarily related. I've said it before, but I can summarize them here. Spoiler for space:
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2010-01-06, 14:36 | Link #2030 | |
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Japanese family does practice this often, just like Kinzo was still forced into marrying a woman to reap benefits for the family even he did not love, and it was in 20th century. We also had the example of Eva trying to arrange a marriage for George. To seal an alliance? Not exactly. It was a means to expand the family network into Europe, to gain trade opportunity and information. Conversely, I would say that because of this marriage, Japanese had successfully made the Tripartite pact (signed in 1940, and to make the Axis alliance probably many diplomacy work had been going for quite a few years, 1952 Beatrice was married into Sumadera family well before 1940) with Italy and Germany. Last edited by ijriims; 2010-01-06 at 14:55. |
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2010-01-06, 15:09 | Link #2031 | ||
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__________________
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2010-01-06, 16:51 | Link #2032 | |
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2010-01-06, 17:30 | Link #2033 | |
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Join Date: Jun 2009
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Let me attack the Illusion of the Witch from a new angle. I'll open with some blue: Battler met Beatrice at the end of games 1 and 2, and spoke to her in Episode 4 as well. The Beatrice he met in all games is the same person. Every time Battler encounters her, his description of her is almost word for word- "The witch from the portrait". Many of the people theorizing about Beato have a hard time believing that even one person on the island can successfully imitate Beatrice, let alone two or more. So assuming that Battler met the same person in each of these games, who becomes a possible suspect? Who is impossible?
Rudolph, Kyrie, Natsuhi, Krauss, Eva and Hideyoshi were all certainly dead inside the chapel in Episode 2. Therefore, it is impossible for Battler to have met any of them at the end of that game. In that same game, Kanon was killed inside Jessica's room. Battler meeting him at the end of that game is impossible. In Episode 1, Nanjo, Kumasawa, and Genji were all killed by another person. It is impossible for Battler to have met any of them at the end of the game. In that same game, Natsuhi was killed by another person. Battler could not have met her- she was lying dead just a few feet away. In that same game, all of the cousins were present and alive when Beatrice appeared. Battler could not have seen one of them. In Episode 4, Battler witnessed Gohda and Kumasawa hanging from ropes, still locked inside the garden storage room. He could have not met either of them on the balcony a few minutes later. I'm using blue here since there is a vague possibility that they let themselves out, played out the end of the game, then came back, were killed and locked back in somehow. With the above, and assuming that Beatrice is the same in every game, we can remove the cousins, most of Kinzo's children and their spouses, and several of the servants. I'm only using confirmed, 'red' deaths, and I'm only confirming once per suspect to keep it tidy. The exception is the end of Episode 1, it hasn't been confirmed in red that Battler was aware of all the cousin's locations, but since he's the detective, if one of them had left his sight we should have been told. Using this, I'd propose first that By this, we can reduce the possible identities for Beatrice to Shannon, Rosa, and Gohda. Noone else could have possibly shown themselves to Battler as Beatrice in all games. For the sake of sensibility, I'd remove Gohda from that list. Not only because Battler saw him in the garden storage just before meeting Beatrice, but simply because unless he's Decoy Octopus, there's no way he'd be able to fool Battler. All that leaves us are Rosa and Shannon. Neither of their deaths are confirmed in red for Ep1 Twl1, so either of them could have faked it. Same for Shannon in Episode 2. In Episode 4, their deaths are indirectly confirmed (The only one alive on this island is you.), but only after Battler met Beatrice. Just bear in mind- this is all based on the assumption that the 'Beatrice' Battler meets is the same every time. All things considered, it seems like a fair assumption but it's by no means certain. Now then... regarding the suspicion placed on Shannon. Quote:
Spoiler for Clues that Shannon = Beatrice:
I'm pretty sure there are a few more, but that's all I can remember just off the top of my head. Any one of these might not be conclusive on it's own, but put them together and things start taking a pretty clear form. I'm not going to go into a huge debate about her life or death status in each game. Her death was not confirmed in red, therefore she may be alive. 'Corpses' might never lead to a false autopsy, and 'body doubles' may be ruled out, but nothing said prevents someone from using makeup to create false wounds and faking their own death- after all, they aren't a corpse. |
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2010-01-06, 17:50 | Link #2034 | |
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1) The following handwritings are the same: - The addresses on the envelopes with the bank cards - The letters from "Maria" detailing EPS 1 & 2 from a witch's perspective, in EP3. (As mentioned in EP4 by the professor) - The magic circles in Maria's diary written by "Beatrice". Given that handwritings are hard to replicate, we can safely assume that they are from the same individual. 2) I'm just trying to pick your brain, my friend! Thanks for the input. 3) I realize that. I haven't figured that part out yet. But it does seem to address the question as to whether or not "Beatrice" was the culprit every time. My best guess at present is that she was only the culprit in EPS 1, 2, and 4. Very good! Now we need to figure out what the hell happened in EP3. Edit: So we both agree on who "Beatrice" is. Now we need to find out who "EVA-Beatrice" is. Of course, I won't automatically assume that it's just Eva or just one person. Last edited by TeeHee; 2010-01-06 at 20:33. |
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2010-01-06, 20:34 | Link #2035 |
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Join Date: Jun 2009
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Already talked about this, but I felt it significant enough to put the whole scene up for show.
Spoiler for Massive images.:
I haven't used imageshack in a million years. If these images get blocked due to bandwidth issues or something at a later date I'll remove or replace them. Edit: I can't believe I have to make a retraction already. Just went back over the scene in Natsuhi's room in Episode 2. Battler actually lifted Shannon's head and even looked in the hole the stake left. Ugh. I hate Episode 2 so much. I can make a few possible suppositions. 1) Battler was very drunk at the end of Episode 2. When he went into Kinzo's study, Kinzo even spoke to him. He saw golden butterflies. And Beatrice was there, speaking to Battler and Kinzo as well. I've assumed that this scene meant that Battler met Beatrice in Episode 2, but maybe he didn't- if we take a page from Episode 5 and assume that Battler's 'detective' status is revoked as soon as he sees something magical, it's possible that just about anyone could have been in that room and Battler would not have recognized them. 2) Rosa was in the study. For Shannon to be Beatrice, Battler can't have met her inside Kinzo's study in Episode 2. He certainly met someone though... unless the game ended as soon as Battler opened the door. In that case, that whole scene was 'magic' meant to confuse him. Round and round we go... Last edited by Knicknevin; 2010-01-06 at 21:37. |
2010-01-06, 21:44 | Link #2036 |
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@Knicknevin:
I'm going to try to put together another systematic analysis, but specifically for Ep3, in search of "EVA-Beatrice", whatever form she takes. Maybe in a day or two (I can't promise that). One thing that particularly worries me is the PIN code (07151129). I say this because all of the servants are dead (in red), and yet someone still knows the PIN. I don't have a hypothesis yet, but I'm curious if you already happen to have put some thought into that. If not, we'll see what my analysis reveals, and we can work it from there. Also, did the magic circles end with the first twilight? If so, it could possibly mean that one of the victims of the first twilight made all of the circles. This is nuts. Edit: Damn, I wish I noticed your edit from the last post. In any case, it could mean that Battler actually didn't see Beatrice in the end. She was playing chess with Kinzo, remember? That's hard to support. Edit2: In any case, I still have to wonder if "Beatrice" necessarily cares if she's alive in the end. Kamikaze!!!! Last edited by TeeHee; 2010-01-06 at 21:51. Reason: slight ease on the language |
2010-01-06, 22:50 | Link #2037 | |
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In Episode 4, after Battler can't respond to her questioning, Beato disappears. Battler finds everyone's bodies but Kanon, who we were told in red was the 9th to die. So, whoever Battler met on that balcony killed them self in such a way to look like a part of the storyline murders. I can construct an interesting theory how Shannon might have done that. But I could also construct a theory for just about anyone, as long as they had Maria helping them... In Episode 3, Shannon tried to get a reaction out of Battler on the first day. Battler denied remembering it, and even rationalized it in his own mind as just another thoughtless thing he said. Shannon dies in the first twilight. In Episode 2... well, after the 'attack' of Not-Kanon, the remaining servants go into the parlor and tell their story of how 'Kanon' came to the door and wound up killing Nanjo and Kumasawa. Shannon takes the final blow in this story, destroying the creature with a spider web. After all is said and done, George bravely volunteers to go with Shannon to keep her safe. Battler stays snug in the parlor with Rosa. Shannon dies in the next twilight. In Episode 1, Shannon 'dies' in the first twilight. She never got a chance to really feel out where Battler stood, so she remained all the way to the end, when she appears in front of the cousins moments before midnight. Judging by the fact that of the cousins, Maria was only identified by a 'fragment of jaw bone', I'm gonna guess that whatever disaster strikes hit at that moment and killed them all. They were probably blown to bits. The not-so-small bomb theory perhaps. Possibilities for the 'circle writer' are fairly open. Pretty much any of the servants or Nanjo could have pulled it off. Or Maria. Addendum* You might say that the circles importance diminishes the more directly Beatrice attempts to make Battler remember his sin. In the first Episode, the circles were of great importance, and their interpretations could be a big hint. But Beatrice did not directly attempt to influence Battler. With each successive game there are less circles (and less adherence to the epitaph), but you might take that as a sign that Beatrice is drawing closer to Battler with each passing game, so she doesn't need to use them... The PIN code bothers me as well, but what concerns me is not so much the 'who' but rather the 'why'. What did anyone stand to gain by putting it up there? Did the person who wrote it not know what it meant? Or did they want to see the reactions of the others when they saw it... Oh man. Last edited by Knicknevin; 2010-01-07 at 02:10. |
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2010-01-07, 04:07 | Link #2038 |
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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The pin is also the password to disable the final time bomb (Beatrice), the treasure "One shall be, to put the witch to sleep for all time."
Who wrote it? Of course the Wise. Kyrie (tarot card - High Priestess, meaning wisdom) |
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