North Korea Crisis

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

I do not disagree it would have been a tricky time when Deng passed away, but there is a difference than "reasonable analysis" and "complete fictitious garbage" like saying a single Nuke from North Korea (Last seen somewhere @1/10 power of the Hiroshima bomb) can cause China to collapse.

Sure, it's because one needs to be blind to not see the structural problems of PRC.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Sure, it's because one needs to be blind to not see the structural problems of PRC.

Which is what? Not falling apart on a breeze?

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Which is what? Not falling apart on a breeze?

Not twisting people's words to suit their blatantly biased views.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Not twisting people's words to suit their blatantly biased views.

You are the expert on that.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

You are the expert on that.

If it helps you keep your illusion, you're welcome to continue.

[Ithekro]

But not finishing one's explainations doesn't help.

[Nightbat®]

Originally Posted by Bri

Sorry to divert from the military confrontation speculation and I haven't read the whole thread. But is there any specific reasons for the current, more than usual, aggressive stance of the NK regime?

If media reports are to be believed, the NK government places it's own survival above everything else. Developing nuclear weapons seem a logical approach to deter any future interventions/invasions. However I'd have expected them to keep a low profile like Pakistan for the world to lose interest. What's different here?

My best guess is that Pakistan wanted to play with the rest of the boys, which doesn't happen if you don't act friendly

[Archon_Wing]

Originally Posted by Bri

Sorry to divert from the military confrontation speculation and I haven't read the whole thread. But is there any specific reasons for the current, more than usual, aggressive stance of the NK regime?

If media reports are to be believed, the NK government places it's own survival above everything else. Developing nuclear weapons seem a logical approach to deter any future interventions/invasions. However I'd have expected them to keep a low profile like Pakistan for the world to lose interest. What's different here?

Succession crisis, new leader pains = less stability, thus smoke and mirrors bluster can give the apparent illusion of strength and threat while they try to get organized. They wouldn't want us to know there's infighting for power.

[Sumeragi]

There's also the party-military rivalry. Kim Il Sung had party paramountcy, while Kim Jong Il used the military to win the succession battles before becoming undisputed leader in 1994. With Kim Jong Un, we have someone who is technically the head of the party but having to deal with a de facto autonomous military.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

There's also the party-military rivalry. Kim Il Sung had party paramountcy, while Kim Jong Il used the military to win the succession battles before becoming undisputed leader in 1994. With Kim Jong Un, we have someone who is technically the head of the party but having to deal with a de facto autonomous military.

That's the trouble with Un never actually being in uniform. Most warlords have the courtesy of having actual experience in a militia if not a proper military force, and build their power bases from there. But things go pear-shaped when the new kid has no military experience and probably never will have any.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

But things go pear-shaped when the new kid has no military experience and probably never will have any.

TBT the NK military has no real war experience (unless the people that fought the korea war fifty years ago are still in charge), unlike the USA who has continually been in bellicose engagements (since officially they have not waged war since WWII) and will be behind SK every step of the way. So maybe that is Kim's plan, force his own military to fight a real war to see them shit their pants and the call for another armistice.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by ogon_bat

TBT the NK military has no real war experience (unless the people that fought the korea war fifty years ago are still in charge), unlike the USA who has continually been in bellicose engagements (since officially they have not waged war since WWII) and will be behind SK every step of the way. So maybe that is Kim's plan, force his own military to fight a real war to see them shit their pants and the call for another armistice.

that is a insane plan, if war breaks out. NK is getting annihilated before China even open its mouth. There won't be any armistice to call.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

that is a insane plan, if war breaks out. NK is getting annihilated before China even open its mouth. There won't be any armistice to call.

Agreed. If North Korea goes and breaks the armistice and starts a war, they're not just gonna be able to call a truce. The South isn't going to just allow the North to go back to the status qua. They're going to demand that the North dramatically demilitarize, including its nuclear weapons program. Otherwise the South might just decide its better to just go in and crush Pyongyang.


North Korea is in a pretty damn sorry place. Actual military confrontation will ruin it, but it needs to saber rattle for internal political reasons.

[KiraYamatoFan]

...

On a lighter mood, I found this on another forum.



You do know that the minister for Defence procurement in North Korea is Wile E. Coyote, right?

[Ithekro]

Now, now. The war is suppose to be in Korea.


Of one was to plan a date to attack South Korea for political purposes. what day would it be? The 15th of April? Kim Il-Sung's birthday?

[Bri]

Originally Posted by Archon_Wing

Succession crisis, new leader pains = less stability, thus smoke and mirrors bluster can give the apparent illusion of strength and threat while they try to get organized. They wouldn't want us to know there's infighting for power.

Interesting, so the Kim family dynasty is not as untouchable domestically as it appears to the outside world.

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

There's also the party-military rivalry. Kim Il Sung had party paramountcy, while Kim Jong Il used the military to win the succession battles before becoming undisputed leader in 1994. With Kim Jong Un, we have someone who is technically the head of the party but having to deal with a de facto autonomous military.

Do you reckon the party or the military is the driving force behind display of force, and how would this help either side to establish control over the other?

[Badkarma 1]

It's just an opinion here, but Un is just tryin to prove he has a pair and its mostly just saber rattlin. He's tryin to tell the world "Hey I'm a bad mutha!" And the rest of the world watches, some nervous, some not so much.
China is probably shakin it's head, Russia is too preoccupied with Syria, we're just sittin and waiting for Pudgy Kim to do something. It's jest like the Cold War days when Russia would roll out its arsenal for display in Red Square.
Could it happen? Sure, but it won't be N. Korea.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Badkarma 1

It's just an opinion here, but Un is just tryin to prove he has a pair and its mostly just saber rattlin. He's tryin to tell the world "Hey I'm a bad mutha!"

that is obvious. the real problem is he miscalculated what the SK/US response would be if he did something similar to the island shelling last year.

[CrowKenobi]

Since things seem to be getting a little too heated, this thread is going to be closed until after the server move.

EDIT: Thread reopened, and let's try to stay on topic.

[PzIVf3]

N. Korea warns it cannot protect embassies after April 10