[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by siberius

Sorry but I don't understand. The red states: "Kyrie is dead" so she is already dead at this point of time.

That's proclaimed after Nanjo was murderered and when Eva and Battler learn Jessica is missing. So whoever it is who killed Nanjo died for some reason at that time when it was proclaimed. This much is said in Battler's blue.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by siberius

Sorry but I don't understand. The red states: "Kyrie is dead" so she is already dead at this point of time.

How is that a problem? Imagine this sequence of events:

1. Kyrie is found dead, but actually isn't.
2. Kyrie kills Nanjo.
3. Kyrie dies from earlier wounds.
4. Nanjo is dead is announced. Since at this time Kyrie is dead, it looks like nobody could have killed Nanjo.

The time window is narrow but it's definitely there.

[delita-umw-]

Actually, that's a really interesting point you bring up Oliver. It's generally assumed that the black witch fight is a reference to Rosa breaking the bunny, but what if Kinzo actually owned a sniper rifle and Rosa broke it as a child. I know you're not a fan of the phrase, but I wouldn't put it past Kinzo to own one. Furthermore, it just seems too weird to me to make a reference to Amakusa's gun in the future. Sure, it explains why 556 has no presence in any of the games, but I feel like 07 wouldn't have made a reference to 556 perishing to the black witch if Amakusa is the only one who could possibly have one in the story.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Oliver

How is that a problem? Imagine this sequence of events:

1. Kyrie is found dead, but actually isn't.
2. Kyrie kills Nanjo.
3. Kyrie dies from earlier wounds.
4. Nanjo is dead is announced. Since at this time Kyrie is dead, it looks like nobody could have killed Nanjo.

The time window is narrow but it's definitely there.

It could really be anybody besides Kyrie though if somebody entered the room Eva and Battler were and were shot. Then we also have an explanation for why Battler thinks she's the culprit.

I'd actually pick the people who disappeared from the guesthouse to fake since it'd make sense why they all left at the same time.

[delita-umw-]

Isn't it just assumed that Kyrie is the most likely because she has a fatal wound but not fatal enough to instantly kill her, leading the timing of the death to be pretty matched up? Although another solution could be Hideyoshi if you can believe that a chest wound like that isn't immediately fatal?

[Renall]

Kyrie is popular because she could also kill George. Hideyoshi is equally plausible for not being dead yet, but if he did survive, who killed George?

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

Isn't it just assumed that Kyrie is the most likely because she has a fatal wound but not fatal enough to instantly kill her, leading the timing of the death to be pretty matched up? Although another solution could be Hideyoshi if you can believe that a chest wound like that isn't immediately fatal?

Yes that's what's assumed, but they don't have to die from a wound it can work with anybody as long as they die in that small window after. I thought of the people who disappeared from the guesthouse simply because nobody else thinks about them. And I see some opportunity there.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

Actually, that's a really interesting point you bring up Oliver. It's generally assumed that the black witch fight is a reference to Rosa breaking the bunny, but what if Kinzo actually owned a sniper rifle and Rosa broke it as a child. I know you're not a fan of the phrase, but I wouldn't put it past Kinzo to own one.

Every time you say "I wouldn't put it past Kinzo", Lord Goldsmith kills an Ushiromiya. I should make a poster with that.

That being said, what Kinzo would have would not be a sniper rifle -- as I just said, 5.56mm sniper rifles are a rarity, resulting not from practical concerns, but from poverty. Basically the only one I could find was developed for Philippines marines because they never had enough 7.62 rounds.

But it would not be too implausible at all for Kinzo to own a classic, standard 5.56 weapon from the 60s, like an M16 from the Vietnam war era, introduced in 1963. At the time he would probably still have contacts among the American military and it's not too implausible he would just get one as a gift.

That said in turn, nothing stops Siestas from being associated with both weapons and Maria's bunnies, imagination does not have to have a 1:1 correspondence.

[delita-umw-]

Originally Posted by Renall

Kyrie is popular because she could also kill George. Hideyoshi is equally plausible for not being dead yet, but if he did survive, who killed George?

Plot twist, they both survived!

But seriously though, Judoh, while it's possible, isn't the timing a little crazy for it to be anything but a wound inflicted earlier? Out of curiousity, how would you propose a solution with another missing person as the culprit for Nanjo?

edit: Your response actually gave me a thought Oliver. It's been argued that Rokkenjima could actually be a former military base and that's the cause of the end game explosion right? I know there's a lot of debate over whether the whole bomber theory makes sense in the context of the murders, but if we look at the presence of this theoretical M16, we could be looking at a base explosion that no one knows about. It's a pretty big stretch I know, but I'll keep that thought tucked away.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

But seriously though, Judoh, while it's possible, isn't the timing a little crazy for it to be anything but a wound inflicted earlier? Out of curiousity, how would you propose a solution with another missing person as the culprit for Nanjo?

It's simple really.

• 3 people escape from the guesthouse with the same method.
• 1 of them is a murderer who is faking and has a master key stolen from Kyrie's group (There is a statement suggesting the key was stolen so none of them i.e. Kyrie, Hideyoshi, and Rudolf had the key when they were found)
• Murderer Kills Nanjo
• Murderer Walks in the room Eva and Battler are in
• Nanjo's murderer gets murdered by Eva
• Battler dies thinking she's a murderer

[delita-umw-]

In your theory Judoh, how does Battler die? Getting caught in the crossfire between Eva and the murderer? Cause your blue looks like it implies Eva doesn't kill Battler.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

In your theory Judoh, how does Battler die? Getting caught in the crossfire between Eva and the murderer? Cause your blue looks like it implies Eva doesn't kill Battler.

I'm saying she kills both of them while under Battler's supervision, and that we're not shown that because then EVA's trick wouldn't work.

And also since it's a choice between Natsuhi, Krauss, and George it's most likely George she kills under this theory. Go ahead and throw stones.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

It's been argued that Rokkenjima could actually be a former military base and that's the cause of the end game explosion right? I know there's a lot of debate over whether the whole bomber theory makes sense in the context of the murders, but if we look at the presence of this theoretical M16, we could be looking at a base explosion that no one knows about. It's a pretty big stretch I know, but I'll keep that thought tucked away.

Unfortunately this particular hypothetical weapon cannot be a hint for the existence of a military base for the simple reason that at the time 5.56 round was introduced, Rokkenjima was already the property of Kinzo and populated by Kinzo and family for ten years -- not very suitable to create a new military base, as it would be hard to conceal the required shipping from random discovery by civilians, i.e. his children. Japanese SDF did not use 5.56 up until 1989 as far as I can see.

If a military base of any kind existed on Rokkenjima, it would have been an Imperial Japanese Army or Navy base, as an American one simply never had a chance to be built in secret, while a Japanese base could have been there since, well, forever.

EDIT: Correction, JSDF did, at least, use imported and locally produced licensed M-16 and friends since the early 70s, but the argument still stands.

[siberius]

Originally Posted by Judoh

That's proclaimed after Nanjo was murderered and when Eva and Battler learn Jessica is missing. So whoever it is who killed Nanjo died for some reason at that time when it was proclaimed. This much is said in Battler's blue.

Originally Posted by Oliver

How is that a problem? Imagine this sequence of events:

1. Kyrie is found dead, but actually isn't.
2. Kyrie kills Nanjo.
3. Kyrie dies from earlier wounds.
4. Nanjo is dead is announced. Since at this time Kyrie is dead, it looks like nobody could have killed Nanjo.

The time window is narrow but it's definitely there.

Ok. I have reviewed this scene in ep 3 and I think it is acceptable to see it in this way.
Still I think "Gohda" theory is also a possible explanation.

[delita-umw-]

Can EVA really pull something off like not showing a critical scene like that? In game 3 I assume we still have a reliable narrative from Battler's point of view, so I'm a little skeptical that she could kill another person while under his supervision and that we'd be denied information on that.

edit: Haha, like I said Oliver, I'm pretty sure it's a very stretched idea. But I'm satisfied knowing that the possibility of an unknown weapon that uses 5.56 rounds could have existed on the island.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

Can EVA really pull something off like not showing a critical scene like that? In game 3 I assume we still have a reliable narrative from Battler's point of view, so I'm a little skeptical that she could kill another person while under his supervision and that we'd be denied information on that.

The witch's side can apparently pause and start the game any time they want. And Battler does that as GM apparently. Can they omit parts of a scene though? I'm not sure. Maybe under Oliver's editor theory they can.

[delita-umw-]

Good point Judoh. I thought Oliver's editor theory was very interesting and if we follow that idea, it technically isn't a lie to just omit information on the event in a similar way that Beato can say there are no more than 18 people on the island. But, and maybe Oliver could clarify this, does this editor power extend to Battler's narratives?

[Raiza Sunozaki]

Originally Posted by Oliver

That being said, what Kinzo would have would not be a sniper rifle -- as I just said, 5.56mm sniper rifles are a rarity, resulting not from practical concerns, but from poverty. Basically the only one I could find was developed for Philippines marines because they never had enough 7.62 rounds.

But it would not be too implausible at all for Kinzo to own a classic, standard 5.56 weapon from the 60s, like an M16 from the Vietnam war era, introduced in 1963. At the time he would probably still have contacts among the American military and it's not too implausible he would just get one as a gift.

Crackpot theory!
Kinzo has a fascination for collecting rarities. In fact, it was this fascination, linked with his desire to revive Beatrice, which led to his massive collection of magical tomes and items. But before his occult obsession, his fascination with guns led him to aquire a rare sniper rifle from a Philippine connection. Or is this outside time contraints?

Every time you say "I wouldn't put it past Kinzo", Lord Goldsmith kills an Ushiromiya. I should make a poster with that.

Since you've used this line twice already...
I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. One for Ange. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. And in case one of the servants is an Ushiromiya. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki

Crackpot theory!
Kinzo has a fascination for collecting rarities. In fact, it was this fascination, linked with his desire to revive Beatrice, which led to his massive collection of magical tomes and items. But before his occult obsession, his fascination with guns led him to aquire a rare sniper rifle from a Philippine connection. Or is this outside time contraints?

With a rifle introduced in 1996? Yes.

Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki

Since you've used this line twice already...
I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. One for Ange. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo. And in case one of the servants is an Ushiromiya. I wouldn't put it past Kinzo.

You murderer!

[delita-umw-]

Well we've already determined that Lincolntrice is time traveling so...

edit: Can we officially conclude that Raiza is the real mastermind behind Rokkenjima?