[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 3 Banquet of the golden witch

[rogerpepitone]

Spoiler for @Jan-Poo:

I think Maria really does believe everything she says, and she sees "Kumasawa" and "Beatrice" as two separate entities. (In episodes 1 and 2, even when everyone's yelling at her, asking who Beatrice is, she never says breaks down and says "Beatrice is Kumasawa / Shannon / Jessica / whoever." because she doesn't connect the two.)

And while she showed interest in the sick rose on Oct. 4 in all three episodes, only in episode 3 did she show interest in it on Oct. 5.

Spoiler for Things that must exist:

Re a means to move bodies around, there's a wheelbarrow on the island. (Kanon is using it at the beginning of episode 1 to move fertilizer, so it's probably kept in the storehouse where the bodies are found in episode 1.)

Side comment: When they're discussing the magic circle outside the storehouse, do they mention when it appeared? Does Kanon say anything like "It wasn't here yesterday when I was putting things back."?

Spoiler for Ultimate result:

Episode 1 states that nobody on the island was ever seen again. Nanjo or any of the servants could have faked their deaths, and Rosa probably had few enough assets that she could she'd be willing to dump most of them.

Episode 2 is vague on the ending.

Episode 3 has only Eva openly surviving.

Cui bono? In episode 1, the ultimate beneficiary is Ange. Indirectly, whoever gets appointed her guardian / trustee / custodian will gain control of the Ushiromiya estate until Ange is of age. (18? 21? 25?)

Spoiler for Battler and Maria:

From an anti-fantasy perspective:
- Why is Battler's exact parentage important?
- Why isn't Maria's?
- Why are Battler and Maria apparently seemingly more likely to survive to the end? (I think Maria's death in ep. 3 was an unplanned fluke by Eva, and the killer specifically lets Maria live after seeing her in ep. 1. Battler was alone in going to / from the kitchen at one point in ep. 1, and at the end of ep. 2 and wasn't attacked.)

Perhaps the killer's objectives required Battler or Maria to live, or at least didn't require them to die. (For example, Maria is no barrier to Enge inheriting or Kyrie's family getting custody of her, so there might be no need to kill her. Similarly, if the killer planned on inheriting through Battler, or could prove that Battler wasn't an Ushiromiya, then Battler's parentage would be important and there would be reason for Battler to live / a lack of reason for Battler to die.

Also, in episode 3,

Spoiler for the first twilight:

How long would it take them to notice that that all the servants were dead? They called for Gohda at one point to fetch water; they probably would have had to get more several times during the night.

[MeoTwister5]

Spoiler for Spoilers:

Ok I'm taking a bit of an issue regarding the use of Hempel's Raven in episode 3. I'm not a mathematician but I've had a lot of training in philosophy and logic, and it doesn't sit well with me how Beatrice uses this paradox as a way to counter Battler. Unless I'm mistaken, Hempel's Raven was formulated specifically as a thought experiment to highlight the problems of the logical paradox that can arise with the use of strict logical induction to prove a logical equivalent. The Raven Paradox implies problems in the claim of absolute truth that should a set of two logically equivalent statements are sound, the reverse of these statements must also be true.

As the problem states, All Ravens are black, the contrapositive equivalent being that all things not black is not a raven. But similar to the Devil's Proof, can you even possibly prove that a raven can be a color other than black? The reverse of this is that if there are things that are black aside from a Raven, then Raven's must not be black. In the case of this certain metaworld scene, Beatrice seems to insist that should none of the 18 members be the killer means that there must be a 19th person, it must also follow in reverse that should a 19th person not exist, it must automatically be an 18th person.

This is logically sound yes, but it was meant to show that what comes out as logically sound in the words and idea agreements does not necessarily mean it is sound in reality. It fails to take into account outlying factors outside from the set conditions in the statement and attempts to prove a contrapositive statement based on reversal of logic rather than seeking out hard evidence to prove it.

[Valentine]

Originally Posted by Renall

Spoiler for Identity of the 'Staker':

In ep3, all stakings are done by the time Nanjo is killed. He himself is not apparently staked, as he is shot in the head (if the TIPS are accurate). A prevailing theory for ep3 is that Nanjo's killer was one of either Kyrie, Rudolf or Hideyoshi, who were not yet dead and killed him before succumbing to their wounds.

Spoiler for Nanjo's Murder:

Or George, who didn't get red text for his death until later either. I think he kind of fits better with what happens later as well. If George was for some reason convinced Nanjo was responsible for Shannon's death (he does seem to be about the only person with no alibi for the first twilight), I can definitely see him wanting revenge. If he thought Nanjo was working with Krauss and Natsuhi, I can see him thinking Jessica was involved as well. The threats by Beatrice towards Jessica were his.. then Jessica calls for help from various people before settling on Kanon. George would realise she wasn't involved with those murders, and all the ghost-Kanon's actions were his as well. He's badly injured, and can't support her, so he tells her not to touch him or he'll fade away, and just directs her on where to go. He brings her back to the parlour where Shannon is, and gets her to hide in the curtains. Then he dies from his wounds, represented by Kanon coming out to tell the Beatrice supposedly guarding the door from Eva-Beatrice that that's enough and fading away.

Originally Posted by Renall

Spoiler for Killer Theories:

1) At least one of the killers premeditated their killings at least as early as the 4th, and probably sooner. This individual was probably the one responsible for the First Twilight, although I suspect the First Twilight in each of the first three episodes was a different person each time. So it's possible that there were MANY premeditated murder plans.

2) At least one of the 18 people on the island has a vested interest in making the others (or perhaps the authorities afterwards) believe that the epitaph is being followed. Or believes the epitaph is ordering them to kill (if they're crazy).

Spoiler for Epitaph:

In a fantasy story I read before, one member of a group was in charge of keeping track of whose turn it was to cook. What he actually did though was to tell whoever asked whose turn it was to cook that it was their turn. If nobody asked he would do it himself. I'm wondering if this is working by a similar method - I suspect that the "key" in the epitaph is Kinzo, and that if somebody works out that much and asks him about it, he convinces them to carry out the epitaph murders. If nobody works it out, he has to set up something himself - paralleling the scene where Kinzo is repeatedly dealing the fortune until he gets the one he wants, we might have Kinzo waiting patiently for someone to turn up to ask if he's the key. The seven adult Ushiromiyas are the most likely to come up with an answer, and in this episode they spend all night coming up with a counterattack for the human Beatrice they suspect is on the island. Nobody goes to Kinzo, so he decides to call the servants, murders them, and sets up the first twilight himself, leaving behind a letter designed to push the survivors to attempt to solve the epitaph, hoping that paranoia and greed would finish the epitaph for him.

Given that we have no suicides, I assume human Beatrice is involved in setting up the first twilight, and since I'm assuming nobody has been told how the ritual is supposed to be accomplished, I'm assuming that she's doing the staking as well. This pushes us up to 19 people though, when we're told there's no more than 18 on the island, so I wonder who counts as people? Beatrice several times taunts Shannon or Kanon that they are not people, just furniture. If Beatrice doesn't define Shannon, Kanon or Genji as people, "no more than 18 people" could actually include up to 3 other people besides the ones we know are on the island.

For the word-game version of the epitaph that Kyrie described, and Eva and Rosa apparently solved, I'm wondering if Kinzo can be read differently - Battler read it as "Goldsmith" in episode 1, which I'm not positive about, but looks to me to have six characters in Katakana. It even gives an easy interpretation of the second twilight - to split "Goldsmith" into "Gold" and "Smith", though I don't know where to take it from there.

For coming up with Kinzo as the key in the first place, my logic is a bit more shaky. If the "sweetfish river" refers to Kinzo's own life, and we consider the mansion itself a village (between the main mansion, the guesthouse, the chapel, the arbour house, and one or more storehouses, it's certainly a collection of buildings which could possibly be called a village), we have Kinzo's life flowing downstream from his beloved hometown to the village where he currently lives. I'm afraid though that I can't actually see the relevance of the shore or how the rest refers to Kinzo beyond that he "sleeps in the village".

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Spoiler for Things that must exist:

Side comment: When they're discussing the magic circle outside the storehouse, do they mention when it appeared? Does Kanon say anything like "It wasn't here yesterday when I was putting things back."?

Spoiler for Storehouse Magic Circle:

Yes, Kanon specifically says that it wasn't there yesterday.

[MeoTwister5]

Spoiler for Spoilers:

Well... the revelation in red that there really was a hidden mansion with a person as Beatrice was a huge shocker but it begs the question: Is this truth about Beatrice's life in that mansion, her death, supposed "reincarnation" in some form or another, all said in red, a truth that is valid for all episodes prior and after? If it does hold as truth for all episodes, then it requires me to possibly do an overhaul ALL my theories
regarding the murders.

When you think about it this way also, doesn't that mean that Rosa was holding one of the biggest pieces of the puzzle in her memories in every epsiode but neglected to tell about it?

[Chadauw]

Spoiler for Kinzo's 'Alchemy Advisor' & the Gold:

Originally Posted by Renall

There is considerable speculation about where Kinzo got his gold, which is massive in quantity and unmarked with anything that would identify its origins. I think that's looking at it the wrong way. Who says Kinzo had anything at all?

FACT 1: Beatrice introduces herself in one letter as "Kinzo's alchemy advisor."

FACT 2: Kinzo's personality is one which, by multiple sources' admission, takes massive risks in the hopes of massive payoffs.

FACT 3: Only one bar was allowed to be taken by the bank representative to be tested.

SPECULATION: The gold is fake. Only one or a handful of bars are made of actual gold and the rest are iron, lead, or whatever. Beatrice and Kinzo used "alchemy" to conjure up ten tons of "gold" which Kinzo used as collateral to secure loans for rebuilding the Ushiromiya family's fortunes. One bar's authenticity was confirmed, but THAT DOES NOT INDICATE THAT ALL THE GOLD IS REAL. Kinzo's gamble paid off, and he was able to repay his loans without needing to hand over the collateral. "Beatrice" (whoever she was) and Kinzo committed fraud, and from it produced a miracle. Metaphorically, you could call that magic.

And yes, if Eva was driven to murder in ep3 over it, that means she killed people for nothing.

The epitaph only promises "all the gold." It doesn't say how much of it actually IS gold...

I always wondered how it was possible for that much gold to exist. This is one of the best theories I read about it, I can easily imagine Kinzo doing that. Nice find!

[ClockWorkAngel]

Spoiler for Thoughts:

Originally Posted by Chadauw

Spoiler for Kinzo's 'Alchemy Advisor' & the Gold:

I always wondered how it was possible for that much gold to exist. This is one of the best theories I read about it, I can easily imagine Kinzo doing that. Nice find!

That also explains why Krauss (Knowing that there is no Gold) isn't willing to pay his siblings such large amounts of money; it simply doesn't exist. But the problem is that if there's nothing else, when the culprit finds the gold why does s/he still must proceed to kill everyone? To finish the job or rather is there's more to it.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Side comment: When they're discussing the magic circle outside the storehouse, do they mention when it appeared? Does Kanon say anything like "It wasn't here yesterday when I was putting things back."?

Kanon specifically says that it wasn't there last time he checked and it was before it started raining. So it could have happened while Maria was left alone in the garden. It's notable that Maria says that circle isn't there for the purpose of the six bodies, but the bodies are there for the purpose of the circle. So maybe the circle was made first and the dead body were brought there later.

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

Spoiler for Spoilers:

Ok I'm taking a bit of an issue regarding the use of Hempel's Raven in episode 3. I'm not a mathematician but I've had a lot of training in philosophy and logic, and it doesn't sit well with me how Beatrice uses this paradox as a way to counter Battler. Unless I'm mistaken, Hempel's Raven was formulated specifically as a thought experiment to highlight the problems of the logical paradox that can arise with the use of strict logical induction to prove a logical equivalent. The Raven Paradox implies problems in the claim of absolute truth that should a set of two logically equivalent statements are sound, the reverse of these statements must also be true.

As the problem states, All Ravens are black, the contrapositive equivalent being that all things not black is not a raven. But similar to the Devil's Proof, can you even possibly prove that a raven can be a color other than black? The reverse of this is that if there are things that are black aside from a Raven, then Raven's must not be black. In the case of this certain metaworld scene, Beatrice seems to insist that should none of the 18 members be the killer means that there must be a 19th person, it must also follow in reverse that should a 19th person not exist, it must automatically be an 18th person.

This is logically sound yes, but it was meant to show that what comes out as logically sound in the words and idea agreements does not necessarily mean it is sound in reality. It fails to take into account outlying factors outside from the set conditions in the statement and attempts to prove a contrapositive statement based on reversal of logic rather than seeking out hard evidence to prove it.

In this game all of these logic tricks are used improperly. The schroedinger cat and the devil's proof are no exception. The Hempel's raven is notorious logical fallacy, so it's not a valid argument, but in this game it can be used. The devil's proof is also not a valid argument from a scientific standpoint. Yes attorneys can make use of it, but since when attorneys use logical arguments?

The schroedinger's cat is an elaborate mental reconstruction to make someone think about the possibility that the apparently irrational behaviour of quantum physic could have an effect on the visible world. There are many flaws in this example, one for all: isn't a cat itself an observer?

Going more in detail about the hempel's raven. The flaw in Beatrice's logic is that she's talking about 19th person as if it was absolutely certain that there are 18 persons. What if there are 17 persons? Then Beatrice by demonstrating there isn't a 19th person wants to make Battler believe that there is not an unknown "x" person that did the killings. But that's wrong, there could be a 18th person that isn't someone Battler knows.
The Hempel's raven fallacy lies exactly in the context.

[MeoTwister5]

I see your point. It would seem not as an argument of sheer validity as it is an argument in an attempt to keep the argument standing. Right now it's actually coming out as pretty obvious that the logical arguments Battler and Beatrice are using are being used only to keep their sides going on and not conceding, rather than as valid statements to destroy the argument of the other side.

Upon further inspection, I sort of see this as intentional on the part of the characters rather than an oversight on Ryukishi's plot direction. When you think about it, both sides are somewhat desperate, Battler a little more so, that it's almost perfectly possible for them to hold on to flimsy logical arguments and counterarguments to keep their debate going.

And I'm not seeing the cat in the box as of yet, but I'm still probably just 1/3 of the ways in. That cat was a thought experiment to symbolize Quantum Mechanics assertion of two possible states existing at the same outside an observers field before wave function collapse, and as a simile to Umineko I don't think I'm quite following you yet.

[Jan-Poo]

That cat was a thought experiment to symbolize Quantum Mechanics assertion of two possible states existing at the same outside an observers field before wave function collapse, and as a simile to Umineko I don't think I'm quite following you yet.

yes your wording is better than mine XD
But don't forget the point is that while the wave function collapse is widely accepted, the idea of a cat both alive and death is absolutely preposterous. This thought experiment became famous because it either challenged our common sense or the quantum theories.

the logical arguments Battler and Beatrice are using are being used only to keep their sides going on and not conceding, rather than as valid statements to destroy the argument of the other side.

Absolutely correct. They are not limited to valid arguments, any argument is okay as long as it's accepted by the rules. It is clear when Beatrice angrily states that what Battler says make no sense but Ronove promptly affirms: "The hempel raven is valid!"

If strict logic should be followed then Battler would have lost already, because he's fighting against a witch in a meta world and he's been killed and resurrected several times already.
Notice how in episode 1 he says: "show me a witch and I'll believe". But then the witch shows up he still doesn't believe.

[Proto]

That's because if, Bern is to be believed (believe a witch to prove a witch false ), Beatrice is not really a person herself, but the personification of the rules of that world.

[MeoTwister5]

And by correlation, with the assumption that almost the majority of the logical arguments put forth by both sides have heavily questioned logical validities, it almost forces me to delete my Current Theories text file and redo every murder theory I have already made.

This leads me to one conclusion: I need 4 big fawking shot of Vodka goddammit.

[Jan-Poo]

I have a feeling that episode4 will cause you an even bigger headache.
You know what's the problem here?

Ryukishi writes an episode every 6 months then his fans start discussing them and make speculations and all. Ryukishi watches them! He reads their discussions, he sees what are the most popular theories. And so when he writes the next story he makes sure to utterly destroy them.

[MeoTwister5]

Because... because Ryukishi is secretly a witch!

DUN DUN DUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!

[rogerpepitone]

Israel Zangwill said he wrote The Big Bow Mystery in such a way as to contradict every submitted hypothesis, until there was only one left, but nobody believes him.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I have a feeling that episode4 will cause you an even bigger headache.
You know what's the problem here?

Ryukishi writes an episode every 6 months then his fans start discussing them and make speculations and all. Ryukishi watches them! He reads their discussions, he sees what are the most popular theories. And so when he writes the next story he makes sure to utterly destroy them.

And in doing so, he guarantees it's possible to solve the mystery (assuming, anyway, that he intends for there to be a solution at all).

Spoiler for Why Red Text is Good:

That's the thing about red text: It's never harmful to the "human" side. Even when it completely deconstructs every presently existing solution, by its very nature it always states truths.

The simple fact of the matter is that Battler will not win when he presents a "plausible theory" that a witch was not responsible, because a plausible theory that is wrong can be denied with red text. The red text almost always attacks a human-killer theory rather than support a witch-killer theory. The human side can't win if its only concern is to have some kind of idea of what the truth could be. The truth is the only way to actually win. This rule is obvious if you look at it, but Battler and Beatrice don't seem to notice and I doubt Lambda and Bern will tell them.

Narratively this makes sense; a mystery story doesn't end when the detective comes up with a "good answer." Nobody wants to read a story where the main character comes up with the same theories they came up with and then doesn't prove them. Battler's real goal isn't to defeat Beatrice (whether he knows this or not), but to unravel the truth and save everybody (or at least himself). "Everyone's still dead, but I have a good theory about who killed everyone!" isn't an ending. It's setting up the climax.

There are basically two ways to get the truth:

1) Battler needs to be able to "take control" of pieces on the board and investigate things that are suspicious. At the very least, he needs to be able to control himself.

2) Pen the witch side in by continually developing theories that only red text can shoot down. Any incorrect theory will eventually be deconstructed by red text if no other option exists to contradict it. The closer the theory is to the truth, the more specific and exacting the red text becomes. This has the natural effect of getting at a more specific answer over time.

If the red text supports a non-magical solution (and given what things apparently CANNOT be said in red, that seems to be the case), then the human side always gets closer to victory every time the red text is used. This is why Beatrice gets smart about not using it, and why Eva-Beatrice shoots herself in the foot when she tries to "trap" Battler with an enormous amount of it.

Of course, it if turns out the answer really is magical in whole or in part...

Spoiler for The Logical Stuff:

Virgilia calls the devil's proof unflattering sophistry. I think most of the people involved know that Battler isn't very bright. Eva-Beatrice basically forced him into doing something he didn't have to do with the Kyrie matter.

It's not necessarily a bad thing that Battler isn't a lawyer. A lawyer is only interested in getting the outcome that supports the position he's paid to defend. A lawyer would be satisfied with a "good enough" theory, if it beats Beatrice. The truth isn't necessarily as important.

Of course, I already have solved the mystery beyond any shadow of a doubt, but it would simply blow everyone's mind.

In a completely unrelated manner, I wonder if we'll ever see some deeper flashbacks to around 1950, or even earlier perhaps. I really want to learn more about Kinzo, Genji, Nanjo and Kumasawa, and their collective secrets seem to lie well in the past. Not because I think it will provide answers (though it might), I just like those characters.

[Jan-Poo]

Of course, I already have solved the mystery beyond any shadow of a doubt, but it would simply blow everyone's mind.

Wow you sure are confident

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Wow you sure are confident

Well since you've forced my hand:

Spoiler for This Definitely Solves All of Umineko!:

The seagulls did it.

Think about it first and watch the revelations unravel all you have ever imagined!

[Jan-Poo]

This completely blows the theory I and Izmo developed about the culprits being mutant mackerels...

[rogerpepitone]

Spoiler for That thing that bugs Renall:

Right before Rudolf leaves, he tells Natsuhi to have some towels ready because he, Kyrie, and Hideyoshi will be soaked when they get back, so Ryukishi did think about the topic.

As for Renall's other comment, have you ever read The Poisoned Chocolates Case?

[megabacon]

Spoiler for Nanjo's death:

I have a theory about the death of Nanjo, placing George as the culprit.
Before George leaves the guest house, he is holding a coffee cup, and Nanjo is alone in his room. I imagine George arguing with Nanjo, pleading for Nanjo to give George Shannon back. (Possibly, George believes that because Nanjo is a doctor, or because he has witnessed many of Kinzo's occult studies.)
As a result of this argument, George overpowers Nanjo and hits him on the head with the coffee cup. The coffee cup however, does not break Nanjo's skin, causing no visible bleeding. Instead, it leaves him with internal bleeding in the head.
This means that Nanjo's mind quickly starts to degenerate, causing him to forget the incident. He continues as normal.
Some time after, as he has left the servant's room and put a gauze on Jessica's face, he finally dies. The thud sound he hears is him falling to the floor, smashing his face on some pointy furnishings, causing the appropriate damage that would appear to be caused by a spear, stake, or gun.

Spoiler for George's death:

Like my theory for Nanjo's death, this is fairly ridiculous.
After leaving the window in the guest house, and stealthily jumping to the floor, he dashes to the parlour window. This window had been smashed previously to gain entrance. He enters the room, and hugs Shannon, who is dead.
Eva, who is outside, in the arbor, killing Krauss and Natsuhi, notices this. She sees George hugging the corpse of a servant, and fearing him to be some sort of deranged necrophilliac, she kills him.

Spoiler for Krauss and Natsuhi's death:

Nanjo, who is eloping with Eva, helps her to overpower the pair. He goes back upstairs before he meets George, and She drags them outside, through the door and rose garden to the arbor. She then performs the damage to their corpses.
She then kills George, before returning to the guest house by using her martial arts skills to jump in through the second floor window that George left open.
She then closes the door downstairs, before alerting everyone that the couple is missing.