[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[k//eternal]

I could see Nanjo as having told everyone about the tunnel, with the group running away from the culprit who was (while we're talking hypothetically) armed with some powerful gun. The tunnel may have a switch inside that opens and closes it.

To mix in another theory, the person with the gun may have been Kanon #2 (the possible twin being mentioned earlier), with the real Kanon already being dead, thus fulfilling the "first to die" criterion.

[Christen]

Anybody think June 17, 1986 is a significant date? I just found it in the photo in the opening.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by k//eternal

I could see Nanjo as having told everyone about the tunnel, with the group running away from the culprit who was (while we're talking hypothetically) armed with some powerful gun. The tunnel may have a switch inside that opens and closes it.

To mix in another theory, the person with the gun may have been Kanon #2 (the possible twin being mentioned earlier), with the real Kanon already being dead, thus fulfilling the "first to die" criterion.

Not really because it's actually:

Among the five people in Kyrie's group, he was the first to die.
In short, he was the 9th victim

He couldn't be the 9th victim if he died before everyone else and he couldn't be in Kyrie's group either.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by k//eternal

I could see Nanjo as having told everyone about the tunnel, with the group running away from the culprit who was (while we're talking hypothetically) armed with some powerful gun. The tunnel may have a switch inside that opens and closes it.

Nanjo mentions a better entrance in the magic scene, but doesn't elaborate. It's possible he knew that for whatever reason getting to the tunnel by ordinary means wouldn't work, so he suggested heading for the well which was another entrance.

Likely, the well wasn't covered back in the day, but it had been between the time Nanjo first learned of it and the 4th. Of course that leads to the question of who sealed it and why. Perhaps Kinzo had it covered up after the human Beatrice died? Perhaps it was sealed so that only solving the epitaph would get you down into the tunnels? Or maybe Krauss had it covered up without really checking on it.

[maximilianjenus]

I think the well was only used as ventilation for the tunel.

My bet is that they never got to kuwadorian, and all the talk about being imprisoned was a lie and in fact they never left the mansion, as the apparent timing of events rules going to kuwadorian out.

One thing on batora's sin, from what I understood Beatrice gets pissed off because the current batler-batora does not remember the sin, which is what makes her suspect batora's identity as not being asumu's son. now that means, for me, that batora did not actually sin though beatrice's red text points out to the contrary, as she says "your sin". That's what confuses me a bit, also since batler remembers going to these he must have been the one who comited the sin, so why would beatrice doubt his identity to the point of actually being right on batler not being asumu's son ? Yet batler was educated by asumu as or the lvoe she felt for her must have been real, with the whole leaving the ushiromiya's events.

[Valentine]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I wouldn't bet my money on that. Something like 2 billions of yen are stored in a central bank to pay relatives of the dead people, and they don't know anything about that.

Technically, we've only seen proof of 100 million present and 3 safe deposit boxes used for paying relatives of the deceased. Just because someone has an account with twenty safe deposit boxes doesn't mean they're paying off twenty people - they might be using the others for something else. As well, just because Nanjo's son was getting 100 million doesn't mean everyone else had to have been getting the same either. Nanjo seems to be a possible suspect to have carried out the first twilight murders. If he was getting paid to do that, the money sent to his relatives might have been significantly higher than that sent to anyone else.

Originally Posted by maximilianjenus

One thing on batora's sin, from what I understood Beatrice gets pissed off because the current batler-batora does not remember the sin, which is what makes her suspect batora's identity as not being asumu's son. now that means, for me, that batora did not actually sin though beatrice's red text points out to the contrary, as she says "your sin". That's what confuses me a bit, also since batler remembers going to these he must have been the one who comited the sin, so why would beatrice doubt his identity to the point of actually being right on batler not being asumu's son ? Yet batler was educated by asumu as or the lvoe she felt for her must have been real, with the whole leaving the ushiromiya's events.

I never got the impression that she really believed it herself. Something about what Battler said annoyed her, she suddenly became tired of the game, and she set out to free herself from it by removing Battler as her opponent. The careful way she led Battler in what to say seems clear evidence that she knew exactly what Battler would and would not be able to say on the subject, certainly enough that she shouldn't have had any illusions about Battler not really being the person of six years ago.

[Deathkillz]

Originally Posted by Valentine

I never got the impression that she really believed it herself. Something about what Battler said annoyed her, she suddenly became tired of the game, and she set out to free herself from it by removing Battler as her opponent. The careful way she led Battler in what to say seems clear evidence that she knew exactly what Battler would and would not be able to say on the subject, certainly enough that she shouldn't have had any illusions about Battler not really being the person of six years ago.

Actually I think it is a special case here. I don't think Beato has lied about Battler's sins just because she became bored of the game and wanted to free herself. If it is worth believing, the scene where the questioning Beato became so disappointed at Battler's inability to remember his sin and then switched with another Beato to take her place at tying things up is an indication that it may not be a lie. I actually think that the first Beato to question him is in fact the real culprit whilst the second Beato is meta-Beatrice. Not sure how this will fit within an anti-fantasy explanation though. Split personality perhaps?

Now it would be interesting if "Beatrice" is the alter ego of the culprit.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Valentine

Technically, we've only seen proof of 100 million present and 3 safe deposit boxes used for paying relatives of the deceased. Just because someone has an account with twenty safe deposit boxes doesn't mean they're paying off twenty people - they might be using the others for something else. As well, just because Nanjo's son was getting 100 million doesn't mean everyone else had to have been getting the same either. Nanjo seems to be a possible suspect to have carried out the first twilight murders. If he was getting paid to do that, the money sent to his relatives might have been significantly higher than that sent to anyone else.

However Nanjo died in all the episodes, and his dead is confirmed as a murder in Ep3. It is safe to assume that the killer planned to kill him since the beginning, that is also supported by the fact the witch's messages always tell stories where everyone die. There is really no point in paying Nanjo at all even if he was an accomplice.
Considering all that it's very unlikely that the other safes should be any different.

[maximilianjenus]

Everybody dies. the theory of the boiler room being tricked to everybody dies in the family conference regardless of the twilights is the one I am more inclined to believe. In episode 3 everything goes wrong and eva survives because she is in kuwadorian.

I am also curious about maria's letters, as A) they were written by beatrice and B) they talk about the previous Episodes, which means beatrice is someone who remember how the twilights were carried, or maybe even, who has a plan on how to carry them.

[Valentine]

Originally Posted by Deathkillz

Actually I think it is a special case here. I don't think Beato has lied about Battler's sins just because she became bored of the game and wanted to free herself.

I was talking about whether or not she really believed Battler wasn't Kinzo's grandson when she was getting him to repeat the lines about Asumu. Battler not knowing what she was talking about with the sin was just the reason she tried to mislead him about not being related to Kinzo. I don't think she was lying about the sin, whatever it might be.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

However Nanjo died in all the episodes, and his dead is confirmed as a murder in Ep3. It is safe to assume that the killer planned to kill him since the beginning, that is also supported by the fact the witch's messages always tell stories where everyone die. There is really no point in paying Nanjo at all even if he was an accomplice.
Considering all that it's very unlikely that the other safes should be any different.

My own suspicion is that Nanjo was killed by George in episode 3, and there are several other possibilities not stated dead at the time in red - Hideyoshi, Rudolph, Kyrie, Krauss, Natsuhi. They can't all be the sender of the letter, so there's no proof that the person who killed Nanjo sent the letter as well. However it works out, I'm pretty positive he ended up killed by Rosa in episode 2, and there's no real evidence about who did it in episode 1 or 4, so there's no proof that it was the person who sent the letter who killed him in any episode.

Even if it was the case that it was planned to kill him beforehand, we don't know why the money was sent in the first place, and for the purposes of it not being certain that there was the same amount of money in each safe deposit box, the killer attempting to place suspicion on Nanjo after the fact by giving him more is as good as him actually being guilty. And again, even if it was the case that each person paid was paid the same, there's no reason to believe that all twenty boxes in the account were being used to pay people. It's not impossible that there could have been 2 billion in the bank vault being used to pay relatives of the victims, just don't set it in stone just yet.

[Nih]

Rereading my posts again.

Your theory is sound, Valentine, my apologies.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by maximilianjenus

I am also curious about maria's letters, as A) they were written by beatrice and B) they talk about the previous Episodes, which means beatrice is someone who remember how the twilights were carried, or maybe even, who has a plan on how to carry them.

Actually we don't know the exact content of those letters. We can certainly draw a cross over the possibility that one of them narrates the events of Ep3 because they say everyone dies. But we don't know if they actually narrate the events of Ep1 and Ep2.

Originally Posted by Valentine

My own suspicion is that Nanjo was killed by George in episode 3, and there are several other possibilities not stated dead at the time in red - Hideyoshi, Rudolph, Kyrie, Krauss, Natsuhi. They can't all be the sender of the letter, so there's no proof that the person who killed Nanjo sent the letter as well. However it works out, I'm pretty positive he ended up killed by Rosa in episode 2, and there's no real evidence about who did it in episode 1 or 4, so there's no proof that it was the person who sent the letter who killed him in any episode.

Even if it was the case that it was planned to kill him beforehand, we don't know why the money was sent in the first place, and for the purposes of it not being certain that there was the same amount of money in each safe deposit box, the killer attempting to place suspicion on Nanjo after the fact by giving him more is as good as him actually being guilty. And again, even if it was the case that each person paid was paid the same, there's no reason to believe that all twenty boxes in the account were being used to pay people. It's not impossible that there could have been 2 billion in the bank vault being used to pay relatives of the victims, just don't set it in stone just yet.

I agree that it's not set in stone, but I see not even a circumstantial proof or logical argument (beside: "it isn't outside the realm of the plausible possibilities") to think otherwise.
It wasn't done to keep a promise, because it was a very ineffective way
It wasn't done to place suspicion on Nanjo or whichever, because else the culprit would have notified to police somehow, and yet even though there are at least 3 letters, the police is obviously on the dark (else they would have questioned Nanjo's son and Kumasawa's son about them).
The Beatrice that wrote the letters is the same person that wrote the messages in the bottles. There is really no doubt that this person predicted the death of every single persons. Even if this Beatrice isn't the killer, she didn't expect anyone to survive. So a compensation wasn't necessary.

The only way you can explain this behavior is by assuming the fickle nature of this person, but that removes greed as a possible drive, which was my objective from the start.

Originally Posted by Nih

You know, I can't tell for certain who is going along with this for fun and who is trying to burn me.

Well played

I don't think I understand what exactly are you trying to convey. The thing you said earlier to me sounded just like: "magic doesn't exist" which is what 99.9% of people believes since the end of Ep1.

[k//eternal]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

He couldn't be the 9th victim if he died before everyone else and he couldn't be in Kyrie's group either.

There's no problem.

"Kyrie's group" is a weak definition since the only such group we see is in the magic scene. I'd say she's just using it as shorthand for the 5 we see, but there's no guarantee they were actually together for any reason. Also, the real Kanon doesn't have to be dead before the game, just dead by the time everyone is running toward the tunnel.

[Jan-Poo]

Ah but that's painful. If Kanon isn't dead before the game how can you justify the presence of a twin without clashing with the 17 persons limit?

[Kitsu]

Shannon is fake Kanon...Jan-Poo aren't you one of the people who like the Kanon=Shannon theory xD

[Jan-Poo]

Yep, well I'm still in doubt, let's say 70% becase the last LD red truth is a pain in the ass. Anyway I was wondering what K//Eternal would think about it.

now for something completely different:

I've replayed the last secret tea party and I noticed something I missed the first time. Well maybe you didn't miss it and I'm the only one stupid anyway:

LD says she wants to trap Berny inside a castle with walls 12k long and 10 meters tall. Berny answers that she wouldn't mind being put there if the walls where 5 times as long and 1/10 shorter. LD seems enthusiastic at the idea because the cubic volume would be even greater.
She completely failed to notice that 1/10 of 10 meters is 1 meter which wouldn't really make a good cage (nor would be enough to make Bern drown under gems). LD really is stupid.

[Kitsu]

The LD truth is easy to "beat"

Kanon is Shannon, Shannon doesn't exist or exist anymore. As long Shannon isn't Kanon it's alright

[Serpit]

I'd like to drop off this little theory in regards to "Kinzo's" identity. Don't take it too seriously, just my thoughts.

Spoiler for Kinzo?:

"Ushiromiya Kinzo" is Krauss.

The confusing situations that arose with the revelation that the real Kinzo is already dead mostly take place in Episode 1, when Krauss came into the study and tried to convince him to join the siblings for the dinner, as well as the time when Natsuhi came in and was praised by Kinzo.

Both of them can be explained this way. The first is simply Krauss talking to himself. This obviously seems weird, but let me elaborate a bit on that later. The second occasion is Natsuhi being praised by Krauss. If you read the dialogue, you can see that most of that "Kinzo" said would make just as much sense if Krauss said it. Most of the time we see the both of them talking to each other, it's usually just Krauss telling Natsuhi to be quiet, even though she fervently tries to defend him. If she were to get praised by her husband and the Ushiromiya head to this extent, it's believable that she would be in very high spirits indeed.

Now, let me theorize further. Krauss has developed a split personality - one of them is Ushiromiya Krauss, the other is "Ushiromiya Kinzo". Even though Krauss apparently always believed himself to be the natural successor for the position of the family head, the games have repeatedly shown what an incredible pressure it is to own this position. Kyrie's sister Kasumi is a good example, as is Kyrie herself, and all of the Ushiromiya siblings.

Perhaps Krauss has felt this burden grow over the years, especially since his business tactics have been largely unsuccessful, and finally collapsed under it the day the real Kinzo died. Faced with the inevitable fate of becoming the next head, his personality split into Krauss and "Kinzo". It was a form of escapism, distancing himself from the responsibilities of the head by creating a second persona that took them, while the other Krauss kept his old position as the oldest sibling, who held the most prestige and the most rights, but none of the responsibilities of actually being the head.

When conversing with his siblings at the family conference of 1986, he didn't seem to throw his weight as future head around as much as he apparently did in the past. On some occasions, he even seemed to be reluctant to be called this and burdened with this title. This could be because he has already distanced himself from those thoughts, pusing them on his alter ego, the current "Kinzo".

I'll go further and say that Krauss himself may not actually be aware of this himself. For this reason, he can have a discussion with himself without finding it particularly strange. It would also deliver some explanations, like how Krauss got in possession of the single gold bar. Naturally, the servants, or at least those who ebar the crest of the One-Winged Eagle, accepted him as the next head and the next Kinzo as soon as their old master died, and treat him accordingly.


Thoughts?

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Serpit

I'd like to drop off this little theory in regards to "Kinzo's" identity. Don't take it too seriously, just my thoughts.

Spoiler for Kinzo?:

"Ushiromiya Kinzo" is Krauss.

The confusing situations that arose with the revelation that the real Kinzo is already dead mostly take place in Episode 1, when Krauss came into the study and tried to convince him to join the siblings for the dinner, as well as the time when Natsuhi came in and was praised by Kinzo.

Both of them can be explained this way. The first is simply Krauss talking to himself. This obviously seems weird, but let me elaborate a bit on that later. The second occasion is Natsuhi being praised by Krauss. If you read the dialogue, you can see that most of that "Kinzo" said would make just as much sense if Krauss said it. Most of the time we see the both of them talking to each other, it's usually just Krauss telling Natsuhi to be quiet, even though she fervently tries to defend him. If she were to get praised by her husband and the Ushiromiya head to this extent, it's believable that she would be in very high spirits indeed.

Now, let me theorize further. Krauss has developed a split personality - one of them is Ushiromiya Krauss, the other is "Ushiromiya Kinzo". Even though Krauss apparently always believed himself to be the natural successor for the position of the family head, the games have repeatedly shown what an incredible pressure it is to own this position. Kyrie's sister Kasumi is a good example, as is Kyrie herself, and all of the Ushiromiya siblings.

Perhaps Krauss has felt this burden grow over the years, especially since his business tactics have been largely unsuccessful, and finally collapsed under it the day the real Kinzo died. Faced with the inevitable fate of becoming the next head, his personality split into Krauss and "Kinzo". It was a form of escapism, distancing himself from the responsibilities of the head by creating a second persona that took them, while the other Krauss kept his old position as the oldest sibling, who held the most prestige and the most rights, but none of the responsibilities of actually being the head.

When conversing with his siblings at the family conference of 1986, he didn't seem to throw his weight as future head around as much as he apparently did in the past. On some occasions, he even seemed to be reluctant to be called this and burdened with this title. This could be because he has already distanced himself from those thoughts, pusing them on his alter ego, the current "Kinzo".

I'll go further and say that Krauss himself may not actually be aware of this himself. For this reason, he can have a discussion with himself without finding it particularly strange. It would also deliver some explanations, like how Krauss got in possession of the single gold bar. Naturally, the servants, or at least those who ebar the crest of the One-Winged Eagle, accepted him as the next head and the next Kinzo as soon as their old master died, and treat him accordingly.


Thoughts?

I've thought it myself, but I don't go as far as to explain everything with that.

For example the fact nobody was inside Kinzo's room can solve the problem of Eva's piece of paper. If you say that Krauss was inside you'd need to find an explanation. Also whether you think there was no one inside the room or Krauss was there, that discussion Natsuhi has with "Kinzo" is too strange to be considered normal. Even if Natsuhi recognizes Krauss as the next "Kinzo" why is she calling him father? You might answer that Natsuhi is unaware of that and mistook him for the real Kinzo but: no one would mistake Kinzo by sight and there's really no logical reason to think this can apply only to the fourth game.

Also Nanjo obviously knows the truth, but why is he playing along with Krauss when he knocks at the door calling for his father?

In other words the "Krauss is Kinzo" theory is possible but I don't think you can justify all the "Kinzo scenes" with that alone.

[Squirrellord]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Also Nanjo obviously knows the truth, but why is he playing along with Krauss when he knocks at the door calling for his father?

I've mentioned this before, but that's simply taking a fact for granted. We *think* he knows, specifically because of the line in part one, where he says he was just playing Chess with Kinzo in the study. However, that could be a baldfaced lie, and Nanjo himself doesn't know where Kinzo is, or he believes he's in Kuwadorian.
Theory:
If Kinzo died within a day or two of October 4th, Genji and Nanjo may not know. Kinzo was prone to disappearing to Kuwadorian to visit Beatrice when she was alive, but there's no guarantee that he stopped going there even after she fell. It is possible that Genji and Nanjo were both told that, if Kinzo is not in his study, that he is at Kuwadorian, and is not to be disturbed. To keep Krauss and the rest from finding out, they are to say that they had just recently been with him in the Study, and that he is still there and in a foul mood. Regardless of all situations then, Nanjo will say he has been with Kinzo.

We only want to believe that Kinzo died a long time before, say more than a year, because
1. He stopped showing up at the conferencess
2. He stopped taking an audience with anyone but Genji or Nanjo
3. The corpse was burned to hide time of death
4. The "smell" of Kinzo's absinthe may be Embalming fluid.

But all of those could just be red herrings into making us thing there's a deep conspiracy than there actually is.