2012-10-21, 03:20 | Link #30941 | |
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Join Date: May 2009
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Again, this should be easily verifiable in Prime. The national and local weather services track storms, they'd know to at least the same rough degree of accuracy whether the typhoon did in fact behave that way. On the other hand, if the tracking wasn't that sophisticated at the time, or Rokkenjima's location was not easily identifiable from the data, it might not be clear when exactly the typhoon arrived at all. In which case, the only "evidence" we have that the rain started when it did comes from the stories themselves. And obviously any story that follows the message bottles will tend toward self-perpetuation of the behavior of the storm, unless an author were to specifically try to vary that on purpose. Given the apparent sophistication of the Rokkenjima Witch Hunt, this doesn't seem entirely likely. Then again, somebody came up with the idea of Erika and Lion.
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2012-10-21, 03:47 | Link #30942 |
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Join Date: Sep 2010
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Well, Erika probably wasn't much of a jump - she fell off her boat relatively nearby, right? And presumably (based on her faint backstory and general characterization) she WAS something of, at least ... a snoop? A very intelligent, possibly arrogant snoop? Forgery authors almost certainly cranked it up to 11 with her, because they were bored of reasonable-behavior Battler detective, but...
Y'know, I do think it slightly (not very) odd that the story always treats Erika entirely like an abstractm when she was a real person with real feeling just like everybody else. Like, Ange never bothered visiting the Furudo's and being like "the fuuuuuuck, guys?" |
2012-10-21, 09:28 | Link #30943 | |
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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For reference: Spoiler for Quote from Ange's monologue:
Hum. That's just downright weird. I don't even know what to think. It's something that would be independently verifiable. A typhoon is not a local event (they are enormous; ones with a radius of under 222km are considered "very small"). Even without any instruments at all, people on Niijima should have a pretty good idea of the current weather on Rokkenjima just by the weather on their own island. Or by looking in the direction of Rokkenjima and observing the clouds. Heck, with enough elevation they could probably even see the island itself. And that isn't to say they didn't have instruments at that time; they did, including satellite photographs. I'm beginning to think that maybe Ryuukishi simply failed to realize this. But still, to guess even the day of a typhoon is very unlikely. Unless it was written within a few days before the typhoon (I did some research on this a while ago; weather reports at the time could predict typhoon movements with a useful level of accuracy up to about 3 days in advance), which is possible. It even kind of fits with how the typhoons vary by a few hours. Or heck, we can even suppose it was written post-incident with such variations intentionally, to try to throw us off into thinking it was written pre-incident. In any case, this remains only one issue of many. It still is an unacceptable coincidence to write of the deaths of everyone around you on a specific date, put those writings to sea within days before that date (and for what reason?), and then have it actually happen. Of course it's fine if you suppose the writer is the culprit (because then the level of coincidence is substantially reduced), but then you have to wonder why the police didn't seem to think the same thing. Basically, pre-incident writing may be possible (although still quite questionable), but if that's what happened then Yasu is most definitely the culprit. When was it established that Erika was a real person? |
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2012-10-21, 10:30 | Link #30944 | ||
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
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However, if it was, like Battler's cookie answer, found after the original answer was found, and assuming that the second writer is fond of the first answer, then the second answer will almost certainly be proof that someone has understood Beatrice's writings and is expanding on them. Since this is actually hinted at as soon as we first hear about the forgeries, it seems pretty likely to me. In other words, if there is a second answer, it still has to include most if not all of Yasu's backstory and personality. Especially after all we're told in EP7 about Yasu's past. In my mind, that basically guarantees that Yasu is a major player in any valid answer. Quote:
But since we can't rely on red text: if Beatrice did want revenge on someone, does it really make sense that she'd say it directly? We see her taking revenge at several times in the past, and each time, it's by pulling some mostly harmless but scary prank without even telling the person that she feels vengeful. If Beatrice made those phone calls, she's doing the opposite of everything she's done in the past, and in the previous games as well (the white horse thing in particular). Then again, it's physically impossible for Yasu to have made the first phone call after the conference starts (only Genji, Gohda, or Kumasawa could have done it, and possibly Jessica or George if they had an accomplice). And she was apparently knocking on the door to Natsuhi's room when the second call was being made, which was also the exact time that Krauss died. So maybe she just delegated all the phone calls and the actual killing to someone else, and this person had a deeper grudge against Natsuhi which slipped out in the phone call. However, I don't see much direct evidence that ties Yasu to this mystery person. We only have "a servant must have been involved, and Yasu usually controls most of the servants". And if we're just appealing to precedent, the fact that this totally isn't Yasu's style should do something to counter that.
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2012-10-21, 11:37 | Link #30945 | ||||||||
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Join Date: Aug 2011
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At this point it's not that I don't want to counter them is that we already had this discussion and nothing changed in both our opinions so really, do we have to go through this another time? Quote:
Yes, in real life it's unlikely if not impossible it'll happen but in tales? It's like challenging fate and saying 'it can't go worse than that' because it'll immediately go worse. Quote:
The why is left unexplained. Either they know who wrote it but they never disclose the info so not even Ootsuki knows or they had their own reasons to drop investigating over it. Umineko doesn't give any explanation so we can make dozens of assumptions that ranges from dumb policemen to goverment order to drop investigations so it won't come up that they left Kinzo with that huge amount of explosive but we can't prove none so which would be the point? Quote:
After 1943 the RSI was under German control, especially in regard of military equipment so using submarines without German control wasn't so easy. But that's not all. You also have to put in it gold and Umineko leaves it in doubt if it's Italian or Italy stoled it from Germany because, of course, Germany left around huge amounts of gold. But let's pretend they did or that Italy had some and managed to place it on a submarine under the nose of the German army and also to pick up that submarine and leave for a secret mission without Germany realizing a submarine was missing. Then they have to travel through all the Mediterranean sea, circumnavigate Africa and reach Asia all while America and England have almost complete control of those seas and coastlines all to: bring gold in Japan who's an ally of the Axis and therefore is losing war so the gold will likely end in American hands, otherwise, in the remote case they'll win for unknown reasons, as Japan is an ally of the Axis which means of Germany too, it'll have to tattle out that Italy hid its gold from Germany as well as America. All this when there are places like Switzerland and Spain who're way easier and less risky to reach and that won't have to turn the gold to either Germany or America and that were often used exactly for this purpose. It's not a dumb plan, it's the dumbest plan ever. And to make things more interesting the Italian forces and the Japanese forces manage to off each other in a spectacular duel that sees remaining alive only Beato and Kinzo. And apparently nobody ever investigated on this. They all conveniently forgot and Kinzo even managed to buy a island with a military base still completely equipped with explosive and even to keep it working. He even installed a self destruction button on it connected with a clock. It seems a plot more fitting for an absurd comedy than for something that could happen in real life. Find it believable if you like but my suspension of incredulity really can't bear so much. Quote:
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From what we know the police investigated on it as they checked if it was written by Eva or Maria. But that's all. Then they either cut investigations or kept them so secret nobody ever heard a thing about them. In short all that followed 'they weren't written by Eva or Maria' ended up in a catbox for us. The odd thing is that neither the witch hunter or Ange tried to open it. Ootsuki doesn't know who wrote the message and Ange didn't try to find the truth from the police. Either the police has no truth to offer or, for unknown reasons, they're keeping it hidden. Quote:
Also it would explain how in a sidestory Ange said it would be difficult for Will and Battler to show up in a single work and how Will and Battler's idea that the heart is important match as well as the fact that Will knows that Battler in the end figured out everything while Clair doesn't. Yasu might have never known Battler managed to solve her game but Toya might have remembered he did. Quote:
Game 5 merely makes obvious Natsuhi is being manipulated but the same might have happened with Rosa in EP 2 for example, or with Natsuhi herself in Ep 1, or with Eva in Ep 3. But I don't get why you say the killer isn't Yasu. What would stop Yasu from killing Krauss? If I'm not wrong in an interview Ryukishi said it can be predicted how the game would have continued if Ep 5 hadn't been interrupted. Plus the idea between Ep 5 is that Lambda constructed it so that Battler could reach the same result he would have reached with the other 4. It would be weird if it were to point to a different culprit. |
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2012-10-21, 12:01 | Link #30946 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2010
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Her EP6 TIP. I'd say it's supported by the chapter about her boyfriend and all those passing "even before you were Bern's piece," lines. She's also thoroughly supported by the goats of the future, so it's hard to think they made her up entirely.
You might say she's in a very unique position in relation to the catbox, since her body was never found, and her Prime personality suited the Detective role. It's like the box was set down on top of her, and she's kinda stuck, half inside, a crack in the bottom of it. Side note, I think I prefer Erika's look when her pigtails were really short, when she flashbacks in the manga. |
2012-10-21, 12:11 | Link #30947 | |
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Join Date: Aug 2011
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She wrotes several version then tossed them away, however the one she kept end up being taken over/end up badly or whatever so that her tale became true. It's also a typical plot though. Guy A writes a murder tale and guy B turns it into reality. Same goes for: Group A is playing a tale then something happens that makes that tale turn into some sort of reality (in the first horror movie I saw some guys were recording a movie in a theatre in which a murderer killed everyone. Guess what happens? A real murderer shows up and kills everyone as the script said... and I think one of the Scream movies also did something similar...) |
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2012-10-21, 12:37 | Link #30948 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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What motive would she have for making Natsuhi wait alone in the room where Hideyoshi would be killed (or whatever room it was)? It does nothing to advance the theory that the crimes were impossible, the opposite in fact. It can't be because she wanted to blackmail Natsuhi further in the future to help with the crimes, because she already had Krauss hostage. If she's able to convince Natsuhi to hide alone and undefended in a closet, and to not even cry out when Hideyoshi comes in and starts getting murdered, how much more leverage does she need? Are we supposed to see it as a mistake when Natsuhi is actually accused of the crimes by Erika? If that is Yasu's intended result, then what on earth could her motive for the crimes be?
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2012-10-21, 13:17 | Link #30950 |
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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Yeah, I think EP5 is just a game where Yasu's a jerk who wants revenge on Natsuhi for throwing her off the cliff, and sets up the whole conspiracy to humiliate her.
Who knows who actually killed everyone, though. Also, why is there any debate over who made the phone call? It's quite obviously Battler, considering who voices said call in the PS3 version combined with the fact that Battler is confirmed to be an accomplice in EP5. |
2012-10-21, 13:47 | Link #30951 | |||
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Join Date: Aug 2011
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In Ep 4 it was possible for Battler to assume (prior to the end of the game) that one of the relatives had really killed the others and that Kumasawa and Gohda were being blackmailed in telling that absurd tale, same as Kyrie and Krauss. However Battler accepts that Kinzo summoned demons, avoiding to try to pin someone as culprit. More or less the same goes in EP 1, 2 & 3 though there's to note that Battler didn't know he had detective authority (if he ever had the chance to use it) and we're talking about his family. In EP 1-4 he's more busy trying to absolve people, surviving and keeping the others alive as well as obeying to the adults than to do investigation and make accusations. And this is perfectly normal. It's Erika who's the one with the odd behaviour for real life (on the contrary as a detective in a mystery her actions are indeed perfectly normal) so that when there's a murder she can force her way in a room even if she'd been told not to enter and has no problems accusing people. Battler, on the contrary, in EP 2 felt the need to defend Kanon when it was extremely easy to place the blame on him for Jessica's murder. Quote:
So maybe the rules of the game are different in EP 5? Quote:
If he's doing the phonecalls his level of involvement is pretty high... I would think the voice used in the PS3 is merely to better fit with the Battler culprit theory Battler presented. |
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2012-10-21, 13:48 | Link #30952 | ||
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
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Even Erika admits that you need a motive to commit murder. You can't explain this crazy game by saying the culprit just didn't have a motive this once.
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2012-10-21, 14:23 | Link #30953 | |
The True Culprit
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2012-10-22, 06:41 | Link #30960 | |
Detective, Witch, Pirate.
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Ruins of the Golden Land
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The only reason she asked for further proof was because Battler was a human, therefore not qualified to use the red at snap just like that without any conclusive evidence to base it upon.
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