Brexit Vote

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

May's willing to take the blame for an exit on her terms. The problem is that her terms can't pass in Parliament. Would a new leader change anything? Is there something that hypothetical new leader can propose that would pass?

A new leader can for example, as SeijiSensei been pointing out, approach cross party talks from a different position than the one May is currently from. A position of power and where they can make the argument that Brexit is a national emergence that needs everyone to put aside their differences in order to make it work*

A new leader can also approach discussions from a different perspective vis a vis the EU. That is because a new leader can (and in all likelihood, would) assume different red lines and have a different image of what Brexit should look like**

More importantly, a new leader would not be as damaged as May currently is. All politicians lie, but it is harder to think one that has had their entire premiership so defined by the promises they have broken as May has. Not many trust what she is saying, and everything she had done over the past 3 years had shown that she had only one thing in mind: to hang on to power at all costs.

Parliamentary arithmetic isn’t going to change with May due to both her deal sucking and she herself not being trusted. A new leader can conceivably change that***

*Taking into consideration that, of course, the best position the UK could have outside of the EU will never be as good as the one they currently have inside the EU as a full member with member exclusive perks no one else has. Which is why Brexit is a dumb idea that wouldn’t generate a deal that is as good as staying in the EU, but the “Will of the People”

** This goes into the manner that the EU will react to the change in leadership, and which faction the leader belongs to, but obviously discussion would change since a new leader will bring with them a different viewpoint that the EU will have to consider separate from the one May had been annoying them with for the past 3 years

*** You can decide if that is for the better or worse, but I would think they would walk into the position of Prime Minster with a lot more concrete planning and idea of what they want to do compared to Madam “Brexit means Brexit”

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

I agree May going isn't going to change anything. The EU isn't renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and May's deal isn't passing Parliament. I don't believe any Tory PM, including May, will ever agree to a second referendum and Corbyn doesn't want one because he's afraid Remain would win this time.

To be clear, the Withdrawal Agreement is not up to be reopened because the basis of it (May’s Red Lines and the EU’s response to them) had not changed. Despite being defeated three times in a row (and aiming for a fourth and fifth and sixth defeats) May had still not changed her position in regard to the Red Lines the agreement is based upon.

The EU had indicated that the Withdrawal Agreement could in fact be reopened in May changes her Red Lines. Barnier indicated just as much in July of 2018, and again at the start of this year, and many in Dublin had been more than willing to reconsider opening the Agreement again if the UK moved some of its Red Lines.

The EU itself has Red Lines it would not cross (the Four Freedoms, Citizens Rights, Northern Ireland) but there is room for compromise. Further, Varadkar had even indicated that they are willing to consider even granting the UK a deal that includes a Customs Union that allows the UK to retain financial control of policy, something a country like Turkey had never had.

The issue is that May refuses to budge. Maybe it’s because she really feels her Red Lines are important to the vision of Brexit she dreams of, maybe its because she doesn’t want to reopen a deal she closed off after 2 years of tough talks, maybe she views it a sign of failure to back down now. But at the end of the day, she still hadn’t changed her mind, regardless of how many times she had failed to get the agreement ratified.

Which is why a new leader would also be able to change this if they change the Red Lines. Or they Revoke Art. 50. Or decide to walk out with no deal.

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I believe Tusk indicated that the agreement the EU signed with May's government was unalterable. This is, of course, the same agreement that the Commons has voted down three times already. I don't know what this would mean were May and Corbyn to agree upon some different plan (an event I find highly unlikely).

But Barnier, the chief negotiator, along with Varadkar, the one leading a country at risk of chaos if the UK crashes out, indicate that it can be altered according to what the UK Red Lines are. So, for Tusk, the man with the personal quiet dream is for the UK to not leave, were to be told that the UK is willing to drop or change some of its Red Lines, he’s going to change his view accordingly.

I agree that this deal isn’t going to get through Parliament, and that May is wasting everyone’s time trying to force it through, and I don’t see for there to be any chance Corbyn comes to her rescue (he wants the UK out of the EU anyways, and it’s not the position of the opposition to come to the governments rescue when it is imploding).

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

I Realistically of course, what makes sense is to put the agreement May negotiated on the ballot against Remain, and let the people decide. It may, in fact, be the only solution that could get a majority in the Commons (though that's no lock). But I just don't see the political courage on either side to make that happen. Since Parliament has already stated they consider a no deal Brexit unacceptable, I think the most likely scenario is a madcap general election before October with Corbyn trying to have it both ways and the Tories winning again, with a small majority on their own this time and someone like Johnson or another hard Brexiter as PM. At that point the May deal would probably pass with the final decision being that or a no deal crash-out.

Johnson, being the snake, he is, will not assume position as PM for the Tories given how much of a mess all of this became. He will stay at the side lines and try and assume a position of authority while doing nothing.

As for the bold, yes, that does seem to be the plan, or has been the plan May thought up the last 3 times her deal was voted down on. So I don’t think its going to work at all, since the EU will keep on giving extensions to avoid the UK crashing out.

[Dextro]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

Johnson, being the snake, he is, will not assume position as PM for the Tories given how much of a mess all of this became. He will stay at the side lines and try and assume a position of authority while doing nothing.

Yhep, never underestimate how much of a coward BoJo is

[Guardian Enzo]

I disagree that the EU is going to keep giving the UK extensions indefinitely. In fact I'm not going to be at all surprised if this is the last one, unless the UK has adopted a specific plan that takes extra time to execute (like a second referendum).

[totoum]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

I disagree that the EU is going to keep giving the UK extensions indefinitely. In fact I'm not going to be at all surprised if this is the last one, unless the UK has adopted a specific plan that takes extra time to execute (like a second referendum).

I might be biased because of where I live but I really think no parties involved want to be seen as the ones responsible for there being a border in Ireland.

In March the UK also was told to approve the WA or have a specific plan if they wanted an extension past April 12th and neither happened yet they still got an extension. I could see this happening again, especially if it's still May at the helm in October, though I'd imagine that if an extension is agreed beyond October 2019 then the UK will have to agree to refuse having influence over the long term budget planning for 2021 - 2027 that is supposed to be finalised in 2020.

May survived a vote of no confidence within the tory party last December, they can't hold another until December 2019. Corbyn could try for a vote of no confidence again after the last one in January to try to trigger a general election but that would still require the DUP dropping their support for May or conservatives voting against may and would conservatives really want to risk losing their seat in a general election?

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by totoum

I might be biased because of where I live but I really think no parties involved want to be seen as the ones responsible for there being a border in Ireland.

In March the UK also was told to approve the WA or have a specific plan if they wanted an extension past April 12th and neither happened yet they still got an extension. I could see this happening again, especially if it's still May at the helm in October, though I'd imagine that if an extension is agreed beyond October 2019 then the UK will have to agree to refuse having influence over the long term budget planning for 2021 - 2027 that is supposed to be finalised in 2020.

The problem is that it's impossible for them to meaningfully agree to that. Oh, sure, May can say she does, she may even mean it, but that would have no legal value. The UK would still be a full member of the EU, with all the associated rights. Not only could the next Prime Minister renege on any such promise, May herself could.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by totoum

I might be biased because of where I live but I really think no parties involved want to be seen as the ones responsible for there being a border in Ireland.

In March the UK also was told to approve the WA or have a specific plan if they wanted an extension past April 12th and neither happened yet they still got an extension. I could see this happening again, especially if it's still May at the helm in October, though I'd imagine that if an extension is agreed beyond October 2019 then the UK will have to agree to refuse having influence over the long term budget planning for 2021 - 2027 that is supposed to be finalised in 2020.

May survived a vote of no confidence within the tory party last December, they can't hold another until December 2019. Corbyn could try for a vote of no confidence again after the last one in January to try to trigger a general election but that would still require the DUP dropping their support for May or conservatives voting against may and would conservatives really want to risk losing their seat in a general election?

Like everything else about Brexit, the stars are in direct conflict here. No one wants to be in charge to be blamed for what happens next, but the Brexit wing of the party desperately wants May gone. There are others ways to force change besides an official leadership challenge, and it's hard for me to imagine May still being in charge in October. But who knows?

The thing about a general election is, I don't think the Tories would fear it as long as Corbyn is in charge because he's so toxic to so many voters and his equivocation on Brexit has been a disaster for Labour. When you consider that May has had arguably the most catastrophic year for a PM since Chamberlain and looks incompetent on every level yet still comfortably leads Corbyn in approval ratings, that gives you a sense of why the Conservatives might decide a GE is the way forward - especially with someone besides May as the face of the party.

[Arabesque]

The end of May will be in June ... May(be)

Sources say they expect the PM to give a timetable for her successor to be chosen, with 10 June likely to be the start of the official leadership race.

Mrs May is also due to meet the chairman of Tory backbenchers.

She has been under pressure to resign, after an angry backlash by her own MPs against her latest Brexit plan.

The government was due to publish the Withdrawal Agreement Bill on Friday but this was delayed as criticism mounted.

Andrea Leadsom quit as Commons leader on Wednesday evening saying she no longer believed the government's approach would "deliver on the referendum result".

The government confirmed on Thursday that it planned to publish the bill in the first week of June, after the Whitsun recess.

Nothing is set in stone until it actually happens, given how long May had survived the impossible thus far, but it does feel that with the trend of the upcoming EU elections and the delay of Brexit that happened that this is it for May. At long last.

God, what a shitty premiership.

[RichardFromMarple]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

The end of May will be in June ... May(be)



Nothing is set in stone until it actually happens, given how long May had survived the impossible thus far, but it does feel that with the trend of the upcoming EU elections and the delay of Brexit that happened that this is it for May. At long last.

God, what a shitty premiership.

It's happened now.

[Ithekro]

May is ending.


'Summer is Coming.'

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

The end of May will be in June ... May(be)

God, what a shitty premiership.

Let me remind you how awful we thought George W. Bush was ... until Trump came along. May will be remembered as someone trying to make a deal with both aisles of parliament wanting to have their cake and eat it.

Now either you will get a moron demanding the impossible or hard brexiter that will simply stop trying to make any deal whatsoever.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

Let me remind you how awful we thought George W. Bush was ... until Trump came along. May will be remembered as someone trying to make a deal with both aisles of parliament wanting to have their cake and eat it.

She mostly tried (and failed) to make a deal with both aisles of her own party.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

She mostly tried (and failed) to make a deal with both aisles of her own party.

And the only reason she even lasted that long, was because the Opposition was sitting on the fence and refuse to pick a side on the Brexit question.

[James Rye]

May is responsible for her own failures, the biggest one talking after the hard leavers and not trying from day 1 getting a cross-party agreement with Labour thus pushing responsibility onto them. If she had done it smartly she could have blamed Labour for all the concessions after the deal was done and signed and tell her hard leavers how much she would have loved to do a hard brexit but it was impossible with the reamin Labours. Instead she ignored half the country, put up ridiculous red lines and ofc her mantra of no deal is better than a bad deal bs as well as her "this deadline is the last deadline, then we leave" mega-bs just sealed the deal.

But the worst is that as incompetent as she was the one who will replace her will be even worse: BoJo. Pretty much a given this guy becomes the next premier expect if he gets stabbed in the back a lot and I doubt that happens. People of his party will rather support him, get him to do the hard brexit and then stab him in the back and take his place to pick up the pieces, as in the best pieces to make money of it when the country gonna fall apart.

Also Corbyn is a lunatic for believing he can become premier instead. If May at her worst can't lose to him then BoJo can't either or if he just gonna get Farage's support to get over the finish line which makes hard brexit all the more a reality. I can't believe the opposition is so stupid...

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by James Rye

But the worst is that as incompetent as she was the one who will replace her will be even worse: BoJo. Pretty much a given this guy becomes the next premier expect if he gets stabbed in the back a lot and I doubt that happens. People of his party will rather support him, get him to do the hard brexit and then stab him in the back and take his place to pick up the pieces, as in the best pieces to make money of it when the country gonna fall apart.

BoJo may not even be one of the final two candidates. (Not that it matters, really, who the next PM will be.)

[SeijiSensei]

Could Johnson survive a "no-confidence" vote in Parliament? Could any Tory PM at this point?

I see a general election in the UK's future in the not too distant future. I can't even begin to imagine how it would go. Will the Remain parties (LibDem, SDP, Plaid, and the new Independents) expand their share of seats in the Commons? How much will the major parties shrink? If both majors continue to support Leave in some form or another, where do the Remainers in those parties, particularly Labour, go? Or do they hold their noses and vote for Corbyn again?

[Guardian Enzo]

If the LibDems can't achieve best-in-a-century results in a Boris-Corbyn GE as the largest pro-remain party, they truly are utterly hopeless.

[Drake]

Out of all "politicians" crawling out of the woodwork for the leadership bid, I really dread Bojo, Hunt and Gove taking the spot.

I picture these lot as giving less of a hoot about what effect Brexit will have on Northern Ireland than the current leadership.

[SeijiSensei]

Well, "best-in-a-century" would be a high bar since the Liberals won 158 seats in 1924.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Well, "best-in-a-century" would be a high bar since the Liberals won 158 seats in 1924.

And they’ll never have a better chance than if they’re facing off against a Tory and Labour leader who are deemed unsupportable by major chunks of their own parties, and gifted the main issue of the day as the only major party on the side of remain.

[SeijiSensei]

So, in the event, the LibDems polled 18 percent, much better than their recent performances in General Elections, but below what they drew during the two General Elections in 1974. Unfortunately, given the operation of the first-past-the-post voting system, even if they drew another 18 percent in a General Election, they'd only win a handful of seats.

Overall the various Remain parties - LibDem, SDP, Plaid, and ChangeUK - drew a bit over 40 percent of the vote in the EP elections, outpolliing Farage and the Brexit Party, by about five points.

Here is a very informative chart of yesterday's vote in the UK against the 2016 Leave vote (from https://twitter.com/drjennings/statu...89546386403328).



The flatness of the lines for the major parties is striking, especially given the large number of Tory backbenchers who support Leave. Both those parties polled about the same, lower share of the vote across all of Britain. However the density of Remain constituencies is clearly lower than those at the Leave end. Since these figures are not weighted by population, it's hard to project from this to the electorate as a whole.