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Old 2011-12-26, 22:27   Link #5661
Rajura
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Old 2011-12-26, 22:28   Link #5662
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
But then it seems Hideyoshi might be Top 16 as well...

But the best trap wasn't enough against the Fabulous Lelouch.
I would have lost a bit more faith in humanity had the results been reverse...
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Old 2011-12-26, 22:29   Link #5663
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KholdStare View Post
From the look of it, Homura is clearly Top 16 if she were in 2011. There is absolutely no evidence the current demographics benefit Homura.
No, but all of the other Madoka characters did crappy in their exhibition. Even if I considered Homura to be 2'ce the strength of Madoka (which is highly unlikely) this performance still tops that. Iwasawa Asami is easily stronger than Madoka was in her exhibition, for instance.
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Old 2011-12-26, 22:31   Link #5664
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Which means Homura is more than twice the strength of Madoka, good to know we've made this conclusion. Moving on.
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Old 2011-12-26, 22:34   Link #5665
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All hail Lelouch! Still it was a pretty nice try by Hideyoshi there. It was never going to be an easy match for Lelouch but I thought he would have a bit more room in his victory. Gintoki, Keima, Edward, Tomoya, Accelerator and Koyomi all look as expected. Kyon and Yuzuru look good in their final wins against Izaya and Kakashi. Probably the most amazing performance here is by Akemi Homura. 46.75% on Kuroneko is roughly Haruhi or Eucliwood level. That's very impressive. I'm looking forward to seeing what she can do next year. A single match could be a fluke but it's definitely a positive sign for Homura.
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Old 2011-12-26, 22:42   Link #5666
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KholdStare View Post
From the look of it, Homura is clearly Top 16 if she were in 2011. There is absolutely no evidence the current demographics benefit Homura.
I actually do have some supporting facts, since I got stuck with the job of counting all the posted votes in 11 forums for another forum. I've based my post-season fantasy almost entirely on that data, and I had a pretty horrible time. However, when I use the same data for exhibition, the results were a LOT better (the worst result I had was a 14/18). This implies that forum-goers make up a far larger part of the demographics in the exhibition tournament than they do in the regular seasons. And during exhibition 9, my count for Homura was a steady 20-30% higher than Kuroneko in the combined total, and while different forums differed in individual results, nearly every one of them had Homura at an advantage. Well, the results speak for themselves, so if Homura could not take a win in the current demographics, I don't think she will do that well at all when the casual voters come back.
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Old 2011-12-26, 22:55   Link #5667
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More charts:

Chart 3:

Chart 4:


Same as before but add in the results of Exhibition 9.
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Old 2011-12-26, 23:02   Link #5668
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From what I've noticed using the regular season maps...Taiwan has been the majority of Madoka characters downfall(Only basing this off of regular seasone xhibition, not the preliminaries). They're not the only country that vote strongly against Madoka characters, but they're the only country with enough voters to make a large impact on the results. At least of the countries I'm aware of who have a large number of voters.
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Old 2011-12-26, 23:03   Link #5669
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Congrats to Lelouch! Nice to see that his character still stands tall even with Code Geass R2 now being a few years old.

Also, so much for the widely desired Kuroneko curbstomp victory. As a big Madoka Magica fan, I'm glad to see that those desires did not meet with fruition.


Quote:
Originally Posted by RegalStar View Post
I actually do have some supporting facts, since I got stuck with the job of counting all the posted votes in 11 forums for another forum. I've based my post-season fantasy almost entirely on that data, and I had a pretty horrible time. However, when I use the same data for exhibition, the results were a LOT better (the worst result I had was a 14/18). This implies that forum-goers make up a far larger part of the demographics in the exhibition tournament than they do in the regular seasons. And during exhibition 9, my count for Homura was a steady 20-30% higher than Kuroneko in the combined total, and while different forums differed in individual results, nearly every one of them had Homura at an advantage. Well, the results speak for themselves, so if Homura could not take a win in the current demographics, I don't think she will do that well at all when the casual voters come back.
Demographics in ISML competitions change annually though. With that in mind, I think that you're overstating your argument.

Looks like some people may have simply underestimated Homura (or overestimated Kuroneko).
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Old 2011-12-26, 23:16   Link #5670
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Well of course, it's just a prediction based on how things are going currently. Whether Homura will rise up and stomp on everyone next year or not is still anyone's guess. (Though speaking personally I'd rather not see that happening.)
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Old 2011-12-26, 23:22   Link #5671
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RegalStar View Post
Well of course, it's just a prediction based on how things are going currently. Whether Homura will rise up and stomp on everyone next year or not is still anyone's guess. (Though speaking personally I'd rather not see that happening.)
In fairness to you, I don't think she'll stomp on everyone. I think she'll be Top 16, but not Top 4 (I don't see how Homura can get more popular than she already is until the Madoka movies come out, and she couldn't beat Kuroneko, so...). She'll be a factor and maybe win a Necklace along the way (if those are still around, I honestly can't recall all the format changes off-hand).
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Old 2011-12-26, 23:32   Link #5672
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Makes one wonder....cause of the new format, will Yuki maintain her Top 8 standing. She's held for four years with Shana (and mostly Hina, she didn't make Top 8 in 2008)
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Old 2011-12-27, 00:22   Link #5673
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For those interested, here are my stats ranking the male tournament characters.

Bold = Top 16
Blue = Top 32
Red = 32nd-96th

I didn't have too much data so assume fairly large margins of error. Especially with the names listed in red since those are from 3 way matches.

Spoiler for Male Tournament Character Ranking:
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Old 2011-12-27, 01:36   Link #5674
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Lelouch is too fabulous to lose against a trap, nice poster.
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Old 2011-12-27, 02:11   Link #5675
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There have been times when Lelouch is presented as a trap...or perhaps just genderbent in the spirit of Kyonko.

Considering how well Kyon does...Kyonko might destroy this place.
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Old 2011-12-27, 02:27   Link #5676
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
There have been times when Lelouch is presented as a trap...or perhaps just genderbent in the spirit of Kyonko.

Considering how well Kyon does...Kyonko might destroy this place.
I'd love to see a Kyonko vs Luluko match. Kyonko isn't that popular, though. She only got 20% of the votes on Miku back in 2010.
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Old 2011-12-27, 02:36   Link #5677
Ithekro
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Well remember, that's Miku...just about everyone knows Miku.
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Old 2011-12-27, 03:16   Link #5678
wontaek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demi. View Post
From what I've noticed using the regular season maps...Taiwan has been the majority of Madoka characters downfall(Only basing this off of regular seasone xhibition, not the preliminaries). They're not the only country that vote strongly against Madoka characters, but they're the only country with enough voters to make a large impact on the results. At least of the countries I'm aware of who have a large number of voters.

It is not just Taiwan, but probably most of the people who can speak Chinese that seems to dislike Homura and other Madoka Magica girls, with exception of perhaps Sakura Kyouko.

Spoiler for 3 world maps relevent to my statement:
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Old 2011-12-27, 03:22   Link #5679
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They liked Mami enough in Hong Kong.
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Old 2011-12-27, 03:34   Link #5680
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Congratulations to Lelouch, I am glad to see one of my top male characters win this if Hideyoshi didn't . And I am happy Kyouko won giving me hope she's make the regular season at least.
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