AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > General > General Chat

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2009-11-24, 13:49   Link #4721
SaintessHeart
Ehh? EEEEHHHHHH?
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyuusai View Post
I think it's intellectually dishonest to overlook the fact that people with real physics educations are the ones who came up with these doomsday scenarios that have caused public alarm, BUT... I don't have a solution for said public alarm. Saying "Don't worry, we checked the math and it's OK," doesn't do much to ease the fears of people who can't do the math regardless of how true it is.
Actually I remembered arguing this out during a free floor Q&A debate back in my school days using Physics principles. I wish I had done that math 2 years earlier to prove my point and shove a finger up the debator's arse.

It is the students who study within their syllabus that predicted the doomsday scenarios and pressed the panic button. Applying more concepts into the question actually clears alot of things up and made most of the scenarios laughable.

I have a gut feeling that I applied the wrong concepts. Maybe I should email that to CERN to check.

But then again, it would be better to save some face for myself and just make myself look stupid here. Anyone want to help check?
__________________

When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.
SaintessHeart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-24, 15:40   Link #4722
Vexx
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
*Author
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 57
One of the biggest "problems" is that science happens in public -- brainstorming theories and discarding them as you work through it. The average news media person likes to focus on the "crash boom" and then fails to follow up properly, do the verification, shoot down unsupported assertions, etc (just like they do with most news stories). Average people don't seem to get the training on things like "critical analysis", "risk assessment and mitigation", "statistics", and the other mental tools one really needs to do well in the 21st century.

So, yes, there *was* some concern that mini-blackholes might be a problem... and then someone did the math/research/experiments. But that's a lot less exciting for a news story :P I posted a comic a few months ago that explains the problem with news coverage of science visually. Don't have it handy at the moment.
Vexx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-24, 16:46   Link #4723
Anh_Minh
I disagree with you all.
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Everyone knows all it's going to do is open some portal to a hell dimension anyway. And that its denizens will be so wussy, a man with a crowbar or some such will defeat them singlehandedly. So why so serious?
Anh_Minh is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-24, 20:51   Link #4724
LynnieS
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: China
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
The "asians" (o.O) have got a lot of their own problems to solve. The Chinese are rightfully concerned about the antics passing for politics in the US because they're a major holder of US IOUs/debt. The Japanese just had a major shift in government and have a number of legitimate concerns about the military relationships.

And besides, on the "asian" side of the world, decisions don't usually get made quickly. Anyone who does business there knows that you spend a LOT of time lubricating up the relationship before anything happens.
I see the article being very pragmatic, though. The expectations on Obama - on the U.S. side anyway - accomplishing something were, IMHO, quite high. On Asia's side, aside from the IOU bit, waiting was not a huge issue; they also got problems of their own to deal with.

Obama's team is likely, ATM, to be worried about the upcoming 2010 elections, and people being people, the Dems standing for [re-]elections will probably get their asses kicked. In terms of things getting done afterwards... Doubt anything significant will happen, but people will still hope - just as they will want to punish those who "failed" their expectations. Any success that come from the 2nd half of Obama's first term will have to come from (1) compromise and (2) standing firm on the absolute core points - but will be medium at best.

If Obama and his team are thinking of re-election already, wow. Way too early, IMHO, esp. if they cannot get anything done for real in the 2nd and 3rd years of his 1st term. It's like counting chickens before they hatch - except the hen is still an egg also.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
So, yes, there *was* some concern that mini-blackholes might be a problem... and then someone did the math/research/experiments. But that's a lot less exciting for a news story :P I posted a comic a few months ago that explains the problem with news coverage of science visually. Don't have it handy at the moment.
Well, there is the "I believe the worst 'cause I don't understand the math or physics." bit, but at the same time, no scientist can 100% guarantee that a future discovery will not invalidate current theories. That's why experiments need to be done to prove or disprove these theories - not to mention how sci-fi writers stay employed!

With black holes, people just hear the "devouring monster of everything" bit, and automatically assume the worst, IMHO. If current physics is wrong and the mini ones somehow do get created and stay around, OTOH, we don't exactly have James P. Hogan's communicator handy to fix things.

On the whole, the chances of mini black holes destroying the earth are tiny, and the odds of we just happening to [bad-]lucking our way into it small. Quantum leaps in new physics don't happen every day - or even every century.
__________________
"If ignorance is bliss, then why aren't more people happy?" -- Misc.

Currently listening: Nadda
Currently reading: Procrastination for the win!
Currently playing: "Quest of D", "Border Break" and "Gundam Senjou no Kizuna".
Waiting for: "Shining Force Cross"!
LynnieS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-24, 22:10   Link #4725
Mushi
Hopeless Dreamer
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: On bended knee asking Belldandy to marry me
That 2D girl is mai waifu! Man marries video game.

http://videogames.yahoo.com/events/p...eogame/1376577

Can't say that I blame him. She is awfully cute.
__________________
Mushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-25, 00:41   Link #4726
Vexx
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
*Author
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 57
Speaking of how science evolves... we've got a new theory of gravity to kick around (and yeah, that's part of the process). This one has some interesting solutions to the problem with quantum mechanics versus cosmology/spacetime. It even solves dark matter and expansion inflation as a bonus. It does have some problems - and the head of the team that came up with it hopes the community can thrash it around and either improve or discount it.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...ime-from-space

(looking for a better article but this one will do for now)
Vexx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-25, 08:57   Link #4727
Slice of Life
eyewitness
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
The best argument against any doom scenario is that what happens in the LHC has been happening when high energy cosmic rays hit the upper atmosphere since Earth exists. And Earth does still exist!

I hope that settles some worries.

BTW, there is a common misconception that microscopic black holes will immediately suck you in. A black hole of the mass of an elementary particle will also have the gravitational attraction of an elementary particle. i.e. almost none. Even if it does not decay, to grow it would have to capture other particles that come close enough "by accident", one at a time until it is heavy enough for gravity to become relevant. I'm sure somebody has already done some back on the envelope calculation on how long it takes to gobble up the Earth under these circumstances. I can only guess that it will take looooooong.

Even if you happen to come across a black hole of the mass of a tennis ball, it's still a quite harmless object. Feed it with a diet of electrons so it becomes charged, store it in a strong magnetic trap and show it off to your friends. Even if you accidentally drop it to (and through) the floor, there will be enough time to destroy the evidence and buy some real estate on Mars as long as it's still cheap.

Now I hope I made you worried again, har, har.
__________________
- Any ideas how to fill this space?
Slice of Life is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-25, 15:09   Link #4728
Zu Ra
✖ ǝʇ ɯıqnɾl ☆
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Mortuary : D
Video.Game.Marriage weirdness never seizes to amaze me . To a non anime fan this is beyond bizarre ... my vocabulary fails me to use the right expression . However you look at it , feels like a cheap publicity stunt by Konami (??) / DS .
__________________
Zu Ra is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-25, 21:37   Link #4729
Shadow Kira01
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: PMB Headquarters
Nago assembly urges Kanagawa governor to stop backing Okinawa base deal

Quote:
An opinion paper adopted by the Nago assembly by a majority said Kanagawa Gov Shigefumi Matsuzawa should retract the remarks and apologize to people in Nago.
Quote:
The Nago assembly described the Kanagawa governor’s remarks as ‘‘self-satisfied, absurd and unacceptable,’’ saying the majority of people in Nago are against relocating the Futenma base within Okinawa.
Social Democrats urge Hatoyama to move Futemma out of Okinawa

Quote:
The 12-member party, which forms the tripartite coalition with Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan and the smaller People’s New Party, called for an immediate closure and return of the land used for the Marines’ airstrip as well as its relocation to Iwoto Island or Guam. The government ‘‘should respond to the longstanding suffering of Okinawa residents by realizing relocation out of Okinawa or Japan by the prime minister’s resolve,’’ the SDP said.
Group of DPJ lawmakers to visit China

Quote:
The delegation for the four-day visit from Dec 10 will be made up of more than 600 participants, including 140 DPJ lawmakers. Meetings between Ozawa and Chinese leaders, including President Hu Jintao, are currently being arranged, according to the DPJ.
Moscow files protest against Tokyo over territorial row

I cannot comprehend. Why can't Russia just give back all four islands as that it was never their territory to begin with? More over, this would ensure strong bilateral ties in the future..
__________________
Shadow Kira01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-25, 21:54   Link #4730
Cyrus17
Impostor Cutie
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01 View Post
I cannot comprehend. Why can't Russia just give back all four islands as that it was never their territory to begin with? More over, this would ensure strong bilateral ties in the future..
Guess it's cause Japan is ally of US and US is enemy of Russia. Conceeding more territories to enemies for nothing will cause very negative effect on public opinion, while providing zero benefits.

But in the future, maybe in 10 years or 20, when Japan will leave US' sphere of influence and aquire true independency, a deal between Russia and Japan is quite possible. Something like islands in exchange for some technologies, or maybe a deal allowing russian companies bigger stakes on japanese market. But as long as US "rules" Japan I can't see it happening.

(In other words, Russia can participate in a deal with Japan, but it should be "friendly" Japan. But as long as major aspects of Japan's foreign and military policies decided in US, it's kinda improbable for it (Japan) to become friendly with Russia, to provide Russia with some substantial [technological or economic] benefit, even in exchange for the islands.)

(In yet another words - you said this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01 View Post
More over, this would ensure strong bilateral ties in the future..
- but there're NO bilateral ties, cause there's no such subject as independent Japan. To truly improve bilateral ties Russia should work with US instead, and it's just what it's been doing for the last 15 years.)


Actually I see another variant, hardly probable but still. Imagine such shift in US policies that they stop treat Russia as enemy and become Russia's friend. As a result Russian-Japanese relations will become friendly too... Actually scratch this. It will never happen.
__________________
Oversized signature, meet underfed bunnies.
Natsuru:
- This cake is great. But I don't think I could eat the rest of it by myself.
Black Seppuku Bunny:
- Want us to help you?
Harakiri Tiger:
- We'd be happy to take a piece.
Natsuru:
- Can you even digest it with your guts hanging out like that?

Last edited by Cyrus17; 2009-11-25 at 22:44. Reason: spelling
Cyrus17 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-25, 22:34   Link #4731
Solace
(ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻
*Moderator
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus17 View Post
But as long as major aspects of Japan's foreign and military policies decided in US, it's kinda improbable for it (Japan) to become friendly with Russia, to provide Russia with some substantial [technological or economic] benefit, even in exchange for the islands.)
The US has nothing to do with the dispute. Russia and Japan (among other nations in the region) have been fighting over those islands for over a hundred years. At one point there were even treaties governing who owned what, but that was obviously dissolved during WW2 leading to their current state of "ownership".
__________________
Solace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 00:55   Link #4732
Vexx
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
*Author
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 57
In financial news, US dollar plunges to a 13 year low against the Japanese yen... its actually much worse if you look at the overall history. Interestingly, none of the exchange analysis sites I found want to think back farther than 500 days :P

Quote:
1971 - Smithsonian Agreement sets the dollar/yen exchange rate at 308 yen, and allows it to fluctuate in a wider band between 301.07 yen and 314.93 yen.
1973 - Japanese monetary authorities decide to let the yen float freely against the dollar, and the yen appreciates as far as 263 to the dollar.

1978 - The yen pushes through 200 to the dollar for the first time, strengthening as far as 177.

1980 to 1985 - Yen's appreciation halts and partially reverses despite Japan's big trade surpluses. Higher U.S. interest rates see Japanese investors put money in dollar assets.

1985 - The Group of Five industrial nations, the predecessor to the G7, sign the Plaza Accord in which they agree the dollar is overvalued and to weaken it. The yen climbs from its pre-accord level of around 240 to 211 in October and 200 in November, a 20 percent rise in just a few months.

1986 - The U.S. currency falls further to around 190 yen in January, 167 yen in April and 153 yen in August.

1987 - In February, six of the G7 nations sign the Louvre Accord, which aims to stabilise currencies and halt the dollar's broad decline. The dollar still falls from near 153 to 137 in April and 120.80 by the end of the year.

1988 - On Jan. 4, the dollar falls to a post-war low of 120.45 yen in Tokyo trade, a level that holds as the low for more than five years. The Bank (NASDAQ: TBHS - news) of Japan intervenes to buy dollars and sell yen that day on behalf of the Ministry of Finance.
Aug. 17,
1993 - The dollar declines to a new post-war low of 100.40 yen in Tokyo.
June 21,
1994 - The dollar falls through the key 100 yen level and touches a record postwar low of 99.85 yen in New York trade before finishing at 100.30 yen.
April 19,
1995 - The dollar hits a record post-war low at 79.75 yen after U.S.-Japanese trade frictions spark heavy selling. By the end of the year it is near 103.40.
1998: Asian financial crisis sees yen weaken to nearly 148 yen vs dollar in August, even after U.S. authorities join the Bank of Japan to buy yen, spending $833 million, in June. In October, dollar tumbles from near 136 yen to 111.50 yen, as carry trades unwind following the near-collapse of hedge fund major Long-Term Capital Management.
1999 - The yen strengthens further despite repeated intervention, reaching 102 in November.
2001 - Following the Sept 11 attacks on the United States, Bank of Japan intervenes to sell yen for dollars.
2003 - The Ministry of Finance begins massive intervention to halt the yen's rise against the dollar, partly to shield Japanese exporters as the economy remains stuck in its post-bubble slump and deflation. The MOF spends 20.4 trillion yen ($200 billion) over the year, nearly all of it to buy dollars and sell yen.
2004 - The MOF spends 14.8 trillion yen ($145 billion) intervening in the first quarter of the year, including 1.67 trillion yen buying dollars on Jan. 9 alone. But the MOF ceases intervention in March and has never since resumed.
2005 - The yen hits a high of 101.67 yen in January but then falls, hitting 121.40 in December. Yen carry trades and Japanese investors shifting funds into foreign assets drive the slide.
June 2007 - The dollar hits a 4-1/2-year high of 124.14 yen. July 2007 - Yen's broad depreciation takes it to a 22-year low on a real effective exchange rate (REER) basis. Since January 2005 the yen loses 25 percent of its value on a REER basis.
Aug. 2007 - Strains in financial markets from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis spark an unwind of yen carry trades. The dollar falls from near 120 yen to 111.60 yen. The high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars tumble nearly 10 percent.
March 13, 2008 - The yen hits an 12-year high of 99.77.
Oct. 24 - Yen hits 13-year high of 90.87 vs the dollar. Also sets an all-time high of 55.11 against the Australian dollar, which loses almost a third of its value in just a month on a massive unwind of carry trades.
Oct. 27 - The yen's surge prompts the G7 to issue statement singling out the yen in warning on currency market volatility.
Nov 11 - Dollar falls to fresh seven-week low of 91.20 yen after worse than expected U.S. joblessness claims data.
Dec 12 - The dollar falls through 90 yen for the first time in 13 years after a bill to rescue U.S. automakers fails in the Senate.
Nov 17 - Dollar hits 87.15 yen, another 13-year low, after the U.S. Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to almost zero.


Today it is sitting at 86.73 yen per dollar...
Maybe US bonds/treasurynotes aren't such a good idea.... it certainly makes shopping painful..
Vexx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 01:56   Link #4733
npcomplete
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
wow.. I don't kept track of forex but I remember when I was 120, 110.. the Fed is printing money like there's no tomorrow..

time to buy some gold I guess, before it skyrockets even further
npcomplete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 02:19   Link #4734
Shadow Kira01
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: PMB Headquarters
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus17 View Post
Guess it's cause Japan is ally of US and US is enemy of Russia. Conceeding more territories to enemies for nothing will cause very negative effect on public opinion, while providing zero benefits.
Russia is an enemy of the United States!?

Are you sure? I mean.. Both the United States and Russia are cooperating in the plan of reducing nuclear warheads, as well as other forms of financial cooperation. If Russia sees the United States as an enemy, it would be strange for them to reduce nukes.
__________________
Shadow Kira01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 03:55   Link #4735
SaintessHeart
Ehh? EEEEHHHHHH?
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus17 View Post
Guess it's cause Japan is ally of US and US is enemy of Russia. Conceeding more territories to enemies for nothing will cause very negative effect on public opinion, while providing zero benefits.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01 View Post
Russia is an enemy of the United States!?

Are you sure? I mean.. Both the United States and Russia are cooperating in the plan of reducing nuclear warheads, as well as other forms of financial cooperation. If Russia sees the United States as an enemy, it would be strange for them to reduce nukes.


Must have been the upcoming Macross movie that is the cause of this......
__________________

When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.
SaintessHeart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 09:50   Link #4736
LynnieS
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: China
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
In financial news, US dollar plunges to a 13 year low against the Japanese yen... its actually much worse if you look at the overall history. Interestingly, none of the exchange analysis sites I found want to think back farther than 500 days :P

Today it is sitting at 86.73 yen per dollar...
Maybe US bonds/treasurynotes aren't such a good idea.... it certainly makes shopping painful..
It certainly made my trying to decide what to do for Christmas interesting. The JPY is strong, but with the weak USD and holiday airfare, the cost will probably be very high. Going home will not be too fun on the wallet.

OTOH, with the U.S. debt now over US$12 trillion and the likelihood of more being issued in the start of 2010 (due to the debt ceiling already set to US$12.104 trillion), the dollar will probably just get weaker next year.

The Japanese companies themselves will not look very good, IMHO; they have already dropped their winter bonuses' level, which will hit many people. The U.S. Treasury will likely continue to give lip service to a stronger dollar, however.
__________________
"If ignorance is bliss, then why aren't more people happy?" -- Misc.

Currently listening: Nadda
Currently reading: Procrastination for the win!
Currently playing: "Quest of D", "Border Break" and "Gundam Senjou no Kizuna".
Waiting for: "Shining Force Cross"!
LynnieS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 11:36   Link #4737
Vexx
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
*Author
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01 View Post
Russia is an enemy of the United States!?

Are you sure? I mean.. Both the United States and Russia are cooperating in the plan of reducing nuclear warheads, as well as other forms of financial cooperation. If Russia sees the United States as an enemy, it would be strange for them to reduce nukes.
"friends" and "enemies" are simplistic terms. We cooperate with Russia on many fronts and compete on others... just like with Japan, Canada, Germany and other countries we have long and varied relationships with.

"Russia enemy of US" is old Soviet Cold War nonsense and no longer applicable.
Vexx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 11:56   Link #4738
Autumn Demon
~
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Ithaca, NY
Age: 25
It would be applicable if John McCain were president.
Autumn Demon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 13:06   Link #4739
mg1942
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01 View Post
Russia is an enemy of the United States!
If you still look through cold war lens circa 2000-2009

mg1942 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-11-26, 18:09   Link #4740
JMvS
Rawrrr!
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: CH aka Chocaholic Heaven
Age: 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
"friends" and "enemies" are simplistic terms. We cooperate with Russia on many fronts and compete on others... just like with Japan, Canada, Germany and other countries we have long and varied relationships with.

"Russia enemy of US" is old Soviet Cold War nonsense and no longer applicable.
Perhaps "rivals" would be more accurate, at least when the terms of nuclear dissuasion are challenged, influence over a former Varsaw-Pact country is involved, etc...

On a side note, you won't find many countries ready to lose national territory to another. Mutual border correction is one thing, but losing territory is a big no-no these days.

Even if these are barren rocks in the middle of the sea, the fishing and potential oil resources involved are considerable, even if you put national pride aside.
__________________
JMvS is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
current affairs, discussion, international, news

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:54.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
We use Silk.