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Old 2011-02-06, 21:09   Link #11881
Irenicus
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United States urge orderly transition in Egypt; protestors vow to continue on.

NYTimes puts America's reaction in context.

The great irony is that Democracy in the Middle East means regimes and viewpoints that the United States find harder to deal with than allied dictators, and that the policy the United States holds on for too long is rife with a history of failures and resentment.

There is a downside to realpolitik. If you're cynical yourself, don't ever hope for gratitude. When Iranians rose up against a US ally they cried foul and terror; when they rose up against a US enemy they sang pretty songs of freedom; when Egyptians rise up they urge another strongman to take the old one's place, in the name of "moderation."

Regardless of my government's cowardice, I wish the Egyptian people the best.
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Old 2011-02-06, 21:12   Link #11882
ZephyrLeanne
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
Countries don't go bankrupt. They can, on the other hand, default on debt. If those US Treasuries don't return promised value, then they become effectively worthless.
In other words, China loses a huge chunk of its reserves.
If that happens, won't China start a trade war? Or similar?
How then, will China react to this...?


Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
That's why Beijing is being careful not to push too far its demand for an alternative reserve currency to replace the greenback.
The Euro ALMOST made it. But with the PIIGS, things got really problematic. If anything, it needs to drop all its peripheral Eurozone members, and increase trade with China.
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Old 2011-02-06, 21:19   Link #11883
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China could try a trade embargo on the United States...that would cause a minor depression until American corperations can rebuilt the industries they shipped over to China in the first place. That is, if the corperations even care or are even effected by one nation or another at all. For all we know such a thing won't matter to the large international corperations since they'll just increase the price a little and ship it vai other routes instead.
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Old 2011-02-06, 21:33   Link #11884
ZephyrLeanne
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Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
China could try a trade embargo on the United States...that would cause a minor depression until American corperations can rebuilt the industries they shipped over to China in the first place. That is, if the corperations even care or are even effected by one nation or another at all. For all we know such a thing won't matter to the large international corperations since they'll just increase the price a little and ship it vai other routes instead.
I believe that India and Vietnam are quite capable of filling in for China, at least where US out-sourced manufacturing is concerned.
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Old 2011-02-06, 21:38   Link #11885
Tom Bombadil
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Originally Posted by ZephyrLeanne View Post
I believe that India and Vietnam are quite capable of filling in for China, at least where US out-sourced manufacturing is concerned.
India? Probably, work on the infrastructure and supply chain, they might over take China. Vietnam has a population less than a province in China.
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Old 2011-02-06, 21:50   Link #11886
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The US would require considerable time and money (it currently doesn't have) to overcome a trade war with China.

I'm not saying the US couldn't do it, but it would certainly be painful economically.
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Old 2011-02-06, 21:58   Link #11887
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Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil View Post
India? Probably, work on the infrastructure and supply chain, they might over take China. Vietnam has a population less than a province in China.

As in, add them together.
For now, India can only operate at 1/2 of China's strength, but Vietnam, surprisingly, can muster about 10% of China. Not enough yet, but the rest will have to be brought back into the US or developed in India.
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:10   Link #11888
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I know a few South Vietnamese that are just waiting for the current government system to fall, then head for home to rebuild. They figure it will happen eventually. As for them working together...depends. I know Vietnamese don't like muslims all that much. Aside from that they might work with other groups though.
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:26   Link #11889
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZephyrLeanne View Post
If that happens, won't China start a trade war? Or similar? How then, will China react to this...?
Why would Beijing want to start a trade war with the United States? The majority of its exports goes to the US, so such a move would likely hurt it a lot more than it does America.

In the meantime, China has been making increasingly strident calls for an alternative global reserve currency. To this end, it has been carefully experimenting with the launch of yuan-denominated assets, both shares and bonds, in Hong Kong. I haven't been keeping track, but I won't be surprised to find government-linked investment arms diversifying their holdings to include other currencies and reduce dependency on the US dollar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZephyrLeanne View Post
The Euro ALMOST made it. But with the PIIGS, things got really problematic. If anything, it needs to drop all its peripheral Eurozone members, and increase trade with China.
The euro faces several problems, but it isn't dead in the water yet, thanks to China and, surprisingly, Japan. Both countries have taken major stakes in the latest round of euro-bond sales, organised to raise funds for bailing out Ireland, and potentially Spain and Portugal.

Who doesn't want to trade with China, or to invest in it, nowadays? The problem doesn't lie the lack of desire, but in a range of fiscal and trade barriers. All that, plus the hidden costs of doing business in China, arising from red tape, corruption and industrial espionage.
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:31   Link #11890
ZephyrLeanne
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Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
I know a few South Vietnamese that are just waiting for the current government system to fall, then head for home to rebuild. They figure it will happen eventually. As for them working together...depends. I know Vietnamese don't like muslims all that much. Aside from that they might work with other groups though.
Communist China was formally established in 1949. Though Deng Xiaoping's reforms started in earnest in 1984, it took them right up to the end of the British tenancy of Hong Kong in 1997 that China decide to embark full-time on state capitalism.

The current Vietnam was formed in 1975, and Doi moi, the reform of the communist-socialist economy into a "socialist-orientated market economy" (read: state capitalism) was begun in 1986.

Evidently, Vietnam is more responsive and faster to restructure its economy than China. So Vietnam is still well-poised into the years ahead. Eventually, it'll become to China what Taiwan is to Japan: a buffer zone of growth that keeps the larger economy afloat by trade.

Also, it is interesting to note that the Southern Vietnamese are not ALL in favor of seperation. It's more of a core-peripheral issue: Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is the financial and trade capital of Vietnam, and is where most of the economic growth is centered upon (Walmart-like complexes are sprouting in the outer districts, while the inner city is markedly more modern as compared to Hanoi).

Hanoi, on the other hand, is the political capital. Bascially, it's the old New York-DC question. HCMC people are wondering why they're losing so blinking much tax revenue to Hanoi, which effectively restricts their own growth (example: there's a planned urban rail system planned in HCMC, but Hanoi isn't too keen - it doesn't have one), and they ask if it's feasible to secede.

Problem is, it can't.

It still needs the sheer grit of Hanoi, as well as its protection. Also, by NOT having a political role, it can concern itself with trade, and reduce further population and traffic (see: KL, and why the Malaysian executive moved out to Putrajaya).

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
Why would Beijing want to start a trade war with the United States? The majority of its exports goes to the US, so such a move would likely hurt it a lot more than it does America.
Which is why I think it needs to increase trade with the EU.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
In the meantime, China has been making increasingly strident calls for an alternative global reserve currency. To this end, it has been carefully experimenting with the launch of yuan-denominated assets, both shares and bonds, in Hong Kong. I haven't been keeping track, but I won't be surprised to find government-linked investment arms diversifying their holdings to include other currencies and reduce dependency on the US dollar.
Expect Temasek and GIC to be first in line, followed by the Brits (surprising, yes, but somewhat expected after the backlash over the Labour government's 13 years of cosying up to the US, even the typcially pro-US Tories are thinking twice - but Cameron's visit to China backfired because he STILL does NOT get China...)


Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
The euro faces several problems, but it isn't dead in the water yet, thanks to China and, surprisingly, Japan. Both countries have taken major stakes in the latest round of euro-bond sales, organised to raise funds for bailing out Ireland, and potentially Spain and Portugal.
A few things.

1. I didn't say the Euro was dead, I said it needs to drop peripheral members.

2.Clearly, I see Japan is being dumb as usual: it doesn't do that much trade with the EU, unlike China. Surely the funds could be used to reignite the Japanese economy - by adopting a Scandic welfare system, which will then allow people to have one less burden.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
Who doesn't want to trade with China, or to invest in it, nowadays? The problem doesn't lie the lack of desire, but in a range of fiscal and trade barriers. All that, plus the hidden costs of doing business in China, arising from red tape, corruption and industrial espionage.
And the language.
Guess we need a official translator if the Commonwealth of Nations-China trade talks are going to go anywhere...

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Old 2011-02-06, 22:33   Link #11891
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Trade with China is not a new thing at all...if fact it has been a constant for several thousand years. All the changes are the products and who has the red tape, corruption, and industrial espionage.

Secede? As in South Vietnam becoming a country again? No, no. The South Vietnamese are waiting for Hanoi's government to fall, or at least drop from its own form of communism and then return home as a single Vietnam....just one that is more in line with their own views of things rather than what they considered the communist way of things. Also from what I understand the locals still call it Saigon in their own little definace to Hanoi (sort of like how people still call Cesar Chavez Street, "Army Street" in San Francisco..including in partcular the Hospital on that street...since it still shows its address as 3555 Army Street on the side of it.)
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Last edited by Ithekro; 2011-02-06 at 22:44.
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:39   Link #11892
GundamFan0083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
Why would Beijing want to start a trade war with the United States? The majority of its exports goes to the US, so such a move would likely hurt it a lot more than it does America.

In the meantime, China has been making increasingly strident calls for an alternative global reserve currency. To this end, it has been carefully experimenting with the launch of yuan-denominated assets, both shares and bonds, in Hong Kong. I haven't been keeping track, but I won't be surprised to find government-linked investment arms diversifying their holdings to include other currencies and reduce dependency on the US dollar.



The euro faces several problems, but it isn't dead in the water yet, thanks to China and, surprisingly, Japan. Both countries have taken major stakes in the latest round of euro-bond sales, organised to raise funds for bailing out Ireland, and potentially Spain and Portugal.

Who doesn't want to trade with China, or to invest in it, nowadays? The problem doesn't lie the lack of desire, but in a range of fiscal and trade barriers. All that, plus the hidden costs of doing business in China, arising from red tape, corruption and industrial espionage.
You certainly have some valid points TinyRedLeaf.

It would seem the Chinese are fueling the "brush-fires" of Africa to fatten their coffers.

http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/p...o_intimidation

Food for thought.
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:44   Link #11893
ZephyrLeanne
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Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
Secede? As in South Vietnam becoming a country again? No, no. The South Vietnamese are waiting for Hanoi's government to fall, or at least drop from its own form of communism and then return home as a single Vietnam....just one that is more in line with their own views of things rather than what they considered the communist way of things. Also from what I understand the locals still call it Saigon in their own little defiance to Hanoi.
Well, a caapitalist Vietnam seems unlikely. Most Vietnamese north of HCMC still see the US pretty warily.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GundamFan0083 View Post
You certainly have some valid points TinyRedLeaf.

It would seem the Chinese are fueling the "brush-fires" of Africa to fatten their coffers.

http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/p...o_intimidation

Food for thought.

Not too long ago, that was the US' job.
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:55   Link #11894
MeoTwister5
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There's always going a global economic bully that will try to beat things their way by force. Just so happens that it isn't the US anymore
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:56   Link #11895
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Originally Posted by ZephyrLeanne View Post
Well, a caapitalist Vietnam seems unlikely. Most Vietnamese north of HCMC still see the US pretty warily.




Not too long ago, that was the US' job.
Sadly, that's true.

The USSR was guilty of it as well.

I guess Lord Acton was right?
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Old 2011-02-06, 22:58   Link #11896
ZephyrLeanne
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Originally Posted by MeoTwister5 View Post
There's always going a global economic bully that will try to beat things their way by force. Just so happens that it isn't the US anymore
However, I doubt it's China.



I think it's MOTHER RUSSIA we need to look at.
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Old 2011-02-06, 23:08   Link #11897
Simon
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An unfortunate story going on just a few kilometres down the road (about 3km or so). Fire is still being fought and will last well into the night. High winds will hamper efforts as well until about 12 hours time when that calms a bit.
And an update. I lived in Cannington for a few years, about 15km up the road from Kelmscott, so this makes for pretty scary reading.
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Old 2011-02-07, 00:40   Link #11898
Vexx
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Can someone from Thailand or Cambodia shed light on exactly why this can't be worked out in a sharing agreement instead of shooting at each other? Sounds like a testosterone waving problem?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12378987
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Old 2011-02-07, 00:43   Link #11899
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Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
Not disputing any of the above points but, as a thought exercise, why should national ideals trump ethnic culture?

What makes a nation? Are national ideals not another form of "culture"? If so, why should this particular culture supersede the cultural norms of people living in said nation, especially if such people are immigrants?

Nation-states, as envisioned by modern Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries, no longer exist in quite the same way today, thanks to the death of distance brought about by technological revolutions in communications and logistics. That, to me, is the root cause of present-day multicultural tensions.
Personally I think a 'city-state' overlay is the only way to KEEP competing adherents of cultural memes from slaughtering each other; a gentler form of "pax romana" if you will. Such 'overlay governing' has worked before - it only failed because the overlay itself weakened or dissolved (Greece, Persia, Rome, ... even Yugoslavia).
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Old 2011-02-07, 01:04   Link #11900
MitsubishiZero
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Originally Posted by ZephyrLeanne View Post
Communist China was formally established in 1949. Though Deng Xiaoping's reforms started in earnest in 1984, it took them right up to the end of the British tenancy of Hong Kong in 1997 that China decide to embark full-time on state capitalism.

The current Vietnam was formed in 1975, and Doi moi, the reform of the communist-socialist economy into a "socialist-orientated market economy" (read: state capitalism) was begun in 1986.

Evidently, Vietnam is more responsive and faster to restructure its economy than China. So Vietnam is still well-poised into the years ahead. Eventually, it'll become to China what Taiwan is to Japan: a buffer zone of growth that keeps the larger economy afloat by trade.

Also, it is interesting to note that the Southern Vietnamese are not ALL in favor of seperation. It's more of a core-peripheral issue: Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is the financial and trade capital of Vietnam, and is where most of the economic growth is centered upon (Walmart-like complexes are sprouting in the outer districts, while the inner city is markedly more modern as compared to Hanoi).

Hanoi, on the other hand, is the political capital. Bascially, it's the old New York-DC question. HCMC people are wondering why they're losing so blinking much tax revenue to Hanoi, which effectively restricts their own growth (example: there's a planned urban rail system planned in HCMC, but Hanoi isn't too keen - it doesn't have one), and they ask if it's feasible to secede.

Problem is, it can't.

It still needs the sheer grit of Hanoi, as well as its protection. Also, by NOT having a political role, it can concern itself with trade, and reduce further population and traffic (see: KL, and why the Malaysian executive moved out to Putrajaya).



Which is why I think it needs to increase trade with the EU.



Expect Temasek and GIC to be first in line, followed by the Brits (surprising, yes, but somewhat expected after the backlash over the Labour government's 13 years of cosying up to the US, even the typcially pro-US Tories are thinking twice - but Cameron's visit to China backfired because he STILL does NOT get China...)




A few things.

1. I didn't say the Euro was dead, I said it needs to drop peripheral members.

2.Clearly, I see Japan is being dumb as usual: it doesn't do that much trade with the EU, unlike China. Surely the funds could be used to reignite the Japanese economy - by adopting a Scandic welfare system, which will then allow people to have one less burden.



And the language.
Guess we need a official translator if the Commonwealth of Nations-China trade talks are going to go anywhere...

Oh My God his Putonghua is very very good considering he didn't really speak the language.......he must have practiced a lot of times.........
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