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Old 2011-12-19, 01:14   Link #18421
Ascaloth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaioshin Sama View Post
Wow there have been a lot of major power changes in some of the worlds biggest flashpoints this year. First you had the announcement of Bin Laden's death, then Gadhaffi was out, and now Kim Jong Il is gone. Kind of makes you wonder what 2012 is going to look like.
Maybe we can set up some sort of betting pool on which strongman is going to get tapped on the shoulder, and asked to leave the party next?

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Old 2011-12-19, 01:16   Link #18422
GundamFan0083
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ABC has the AP story on Kim Yong Il's death and what may be in store for N. Korea in the future.

North Koreans Rally Around Kim Jong Il's Heir


http://abcnews.go.com/International/...-died-15185456
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:17   Link #18423
Kaioshin Sama
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ascaloth View Post
Maybe we can set up some sort of betting pool on which strongman is going to get tapped on the shoulder, and asked to leave the party next?

I'm taking Castro, he's the only famous one I can think of that's still around and he seems to have been in pretty bad health for a while.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GundamFan0083 View Post
ABC has the AP story on Kim Yong Il's death and what may be in store for N. Korea in the future.

North Koreans Rally Around Kim Jong Il's Heir


http://abcnews.go.com/International/...-died-15185456
Please tell me his that "Respectable Comrade Kim Jong Un" is his official title cause if so that sounds like a kind of hilarious downgrade from "Dear Leader". It feels like a way of saying, "Hey he's the best we've got".
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:27   Link #18424
GundamFan0083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaioshin Sama View Post
Please tell me his that "Respectable Comrade Kim Jong Un" is his official title cause if so that sounds like a kind of hilarious downgrade from "Dear Leader". It feels like a way of saying, "Hey he's the best we've got".
No kidding.

What's with those titles anyway?
Why not just Chairman Kim Jong Un?
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:33   Link #18425
Ascaloth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GundamFan0083 View Post
No kidding.

What's with those titles anyway?
Why not just Chairman Kim Jong Un?
Because that title is still being held by his grandfather, I think?

(No clue, off the top of my head, I could very well be wrong.)
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:36   Link #18426
Marcus H.
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Quote:
"Hey he's the best we've got".
Poor guy. He just wanna play basketball.
Meanwhile, the possibility of him ending up as someone's puppet isn't so farfetched. I mean, a twenty-something suddenly leading a nation?
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:36   Link #18427
Sumeragi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ascaloth View Post
Because that title is still being held by his grandfather, I think?

(No clue, off the top of my head, I could very well be wrong.)
Kim Il Sung has only one official office now: Eternal President of the Republic.

Kim Jong Un is most likely just going to go with Chairman of the National Defense Commission.
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:38   Link #18428
GundamFan0083
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Interesting piece by Paul Krugman.

Will China Break?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/op...reak.html?_r=1
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:42   Link #18429
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... wonder if Gim Jeongil's death gonna surpass the epicness seen here

(skip to 4:51)




this is a whole 'nother level if ya ask me
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:46   Link #18430
GundamFan0083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcus H. View Post
Poor guy. He just wanna play basketball.
Meanwhile, the possibility of him ending up as someone's puppet isn't so farfetched. I mean, a twenty-something suddenly leading a nation?
I wonder how possible that would be?
I'm not that familiar with the intimate details of N. Korean politics, is it possible that Kim Jong Un could become a puppet of the party?

And if so, what would that mean for the other countries in the region, specifically S. Korea?
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Old 2011-12-19, 01:52   Link #18431
Kamui4356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GundamFan0083 View Post
ABC has the AP story on Kim Yong Il's death and what may be in store for N. Korea in the future.

North Koreans Rally Around Kim Jong Il's Heir


http://abcnews.go.com/International/...-died-15185456
We can all only hope that Kim Jong Un can hold the country together and start reforms to open up and modernize the country. The last thing North Korea needs though is the country shattering in a power struggle. They have enough problems as it is.
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Old 2011-12-19, 02:01   Link #18432
Marcus H.
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Quote:
I'm not that familiar with the intimate details of N. Korean politics, is it possible that Kim Jong Un could become a puppet of the party?
I believe that with the dominant Kim Jong Il now six feet under, some of the North Korean officials will try their best to get Kim Jong Un's favor so that they can preserve their position for as long as they can. Being a puppet is a hyperbole, but we can't say how Kim Jong Il's officials really act.
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Old 2011-12-19, 02:02   Link #18433
Tom Bombadil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Technically speaking, they are right. We Asians tend to become academic robots incapable of innovation and bring value to society.

But should't that be a cause to change the academic grading system rather than segregating them altogether?
Ohh, come on, are you saying Japan is not part of Asia? I think South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are doing quite a good job in high tech industry. There is much potential in China (much improvement needed, too).
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Old 2011-12-19, 02:03   Link #18434
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
Kim Il Sung has only one official office now: Eternal President of the Republic.

Kim Jong Un is most likely just going to go with Chairman of the National Defense Commission.
Shouldn't it be the Generalissimo of the KPA? Since he is more formally known as the "Great General" than anything else.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GundamFan0083 View Post
Interesting piece by Paul Krugman.

Will China Break?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/op...reak.html?_r=1
I think he needs to write faster. The signs have already been around since June.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil View Post
Ohh, come on, are you saying Japan is not part of Asia? I think South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are doing quite a good job in high tech industry. There is much potential in China (much improvement needed, too).
We do copy like you guys in China do wholesale, except that our rate of production is so low that the world doesn't take notice.

We tried to take credit for the alternative artificial blood, assault rifle design, French naval frigate designs, and probably a whole lot more things.

Our high tech industry is based on manufacturing than innovative research. Even worse, unlike Japan or SK, we don't even improvise on existing tech, we just rip and combine or modofy to suot our needs.
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When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.

Last edited by SaintessHeart; 2011-12-19 at 02:15.
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Old 2011-12-19, 02:16   Link #18435
Green²
It's Magic
 
 
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http://news.discovery.com/history/ki...ea-111218.html

"...His funeral will be held on Dec. 28 in Pyongyang but no foreign delegations will be invited, KCNA said. A period of national mourning was declared from Dec. 17 to 29...."
Sad. We probably would've sent Bill Richardson.
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Old 2011-12-19, 02:28   Link #18436
TinyRedLeaf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GundamFan0083 View Post
Interesting piece by Paul Krugman.

Will China Break?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/op...reak.html?_r=1
Quote:
I've been reluctant to weigh in on the Chinese situation, in part because it's so hard to know what's really happening. All economic statistics are best seen as a peculiarly boring form of science fiction, but China's numbers are more fictional than most. I'd turn to real China experts for guidance, but no two experts seem to be telling the same story.
I got to that paragraph, and decided not to take the rest of his commentary any more seriously than those of the other experts he so casually dismisses. Krugman is a known China-sceptic, and while criticism is always welcome, I often feel he doesn't quite "get" China. At least not as much as his colleague Thomas Friedman does.

And, yes, there is nothing really new in what he wrote. The "shadow banking" he described has been going on for a while, a private-citizen response to tightening measures put into force over the past year. And those measures were necessary to take the steam out of an overheating real-estate market. I don't think even Krugman would argue against them.

Are these indeed signs of an imminent crash in China? Let me put in this way: at least Beijing recognises the signs of a imminent crash and is doing something about it. As I recall, Wall Street, the Fed and Washington were still partying as though gravy train would never stop running in the lead-up to 2008.
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Old 2011-12-19, 02:33   Link #18437
Anh_Minh
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
The US might, but look at Germany and what they went through with unification. NK is 10x worst then East Germany, the cost of unification for South Korea would astronomical. SK would have built everything form the scratch up, educate and feed the millions of N Koreans. In the meantime there are hundreds of thousand of young North Koreans would no modern skill but arm with guns. The biggest deterrent N Korea has isn't nukes but its fall which would bankrupt South Korea.
So... start a lot of PMC and rent them out?
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Old 2011-12-19, 02:41   Link #18438
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anh_Minh View Post
So... start a lot of PMC and rent them out?
To whom and where?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
I got to that paragraph, and decided not to take the rest of his commentary any more seriously than those of the other experts he so casually dismisses. Krugman is a known China-sceptic, and while criticism is always welcome, I often feel he doesn't quite "get" China. At least not as much as his colleague Thomas Friedman does.

And, yes, there is nothing really new in what he wrote. The "shadow banking" he described has been going on for a while, a private-citizen response to tightening measures put into force over the past year. And those measures were necessary to take the steam out of an overheating real-estate market. I don't think even Krugman would argue against them.

Are these indeed signs of an imminent crash in China? Let me put in this way: at least Beijing recognises the signs of a imminent crash and is doing something about it. As I recall, Wall Street, the Fed and Washington were still partying as though gravy train would never stop running in the lead-up to 2008.
Not really working, from what I have heard from some people workig in China. Despite increasing the interest rate the common phenomena of rushing to borrow for fear of higher interest rates in the future have been seen. Secondly what it seems is that most of the loans are developer loans, which are suffering risks of default due to lack of tenancy on the buildings erected.

The lack of policing on financial regulations, xombined with the artificial pegging to keep the currency low, resulted in hyperinflation. I am not that bullish about China anymore, but what really seems to complicate the issue is that nobody wants to hedge against China for fear of missing opportunities.

Btw, welcome back.
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When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.

Last edited by SaintessHeart; 2011-12-19 at 02:59.
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Old 2011-12-19, 03:05   Link #18439
Tom Bombadil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
The US might, but look at Germany and what they went through with unification. NK is 10x worst then East Germany, the cost of unification for South Korea would astronomical. SK would have built everything form the scratch up, educate and feed the millions of N Koreans. In the meantime there are hundreds of thousand of young North Koreans would no modern skill but arm with guns. The biggest deterrent N Korea has isn't nukes but its fall which would bankrupt South Korea.
A comment with insight and political sense is a delight to read.

As much I think that the reunification of the Korean peninsula is inevitable, there is no way South Korea is ready to absorb the north now.

I think there are two main paths that might branch out from the current event.

(1) The north collapse and degenerate into chaos. Not a situation that I'd like to see. In such a scenario, either Beijing or Washington has to send in military intervention to stabilize the situation and secure the nuclear weapons. Or both will do. Opportunities of miscalculation are abound. Both sides risk dragging whole east Asia into war. Refugees will flood both China and South Korea. The only good thing that may come out of this is that we will finally have a (likely unified) denuclearized Peninsula.

(2) A stabilized North Korea. Either it will continue the current path, and we are back into situation (1) soon enough, or it actually embark on some kind of reform and follow the path of China in the 80s or Vietnam in the 90s. If carried out successfully, the people of North Korea might be spared of the starvation that they experience every a few years. Of course, the downside is that we are back to the futile six party talks, and the reunification is postponed in the short term.
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Old 2011-12-19, 03:12   Link #18440
Sumeragi
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Any and all reunification plans set up by ROK calls for administrating former DPRK as a separate entity, divorced from the runnings of ROK. Former DPRK will basically be a colony, where education in capitalism and democracy will be done as the country is built up using the capital generated from the cheap labor and the natural resources exported (DPRK has one of the finest gold mines, one of the largest uranium reserves, and also has what could be the one of the best source of rare earth).

Any comparison to the German reunification is based on non-updated information from more than two decades ago, and should be ignored, short of some genocide by the use of biological/chemical weapons on the KPA's part.
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