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Old 2012-04-29, 02:30   Link #101
Sumeragi
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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
My dear, you forgot about the ADIC.
ASEAN Defense Industry Collaboration?


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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Really? I thought they only have a force in the area of Guam oriented towards defence.
There are quite a few nuclear submarines there, plus the soon-to-be-moved Marines.
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Old 2012-04-29, 06:33   Link #102
judasmartel
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Seems like everyone's talking about naval warfare, which of course Philippines can't simply win on their own. But if we brought the war on the mountains and shoot the Chinese out of nowhere...
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Old 2012-04-29, 08:07   Link #103
Roger Rambo
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Originally Posted by judasmartel View Post
Seems like everyone's talking about naval warfare, which of course Philippines can't simply win on their own. But if we brought the war on the mountains and shoot the Chinese out of nowhere...
China trying to physically invade the Philippines sounds too risky for them to even consider attempting. Do they even have enough troop transports to really carry something like this out?

Then there's the precarious fact that if the United States 7th fleet did intervene, the PLA could be left with tens of thousands of their soldiers stranded on a hostile island country with no support, or way to escape. Seeing an entire army get taken prisoner wholesale on an ill advised foreign adventure would be a public relations nightmare for the Chinese government.
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Old 2012-04-29, 11:02   Link #104
SaintessHeart
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ASEAN Defense Industry Collaboration?
It is a small start, but it is a way to go. Most of the countries here still conduct cross training with the US and UK and buying their equipment, being more self-reliant in terms of material and training should be a good way to go.

Of course, Big Gun won't like that because they would be selling less guns to the world.

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There are quite a few nuclear submarines there, plus the soon-to-be-moved Marines.
Honestly, I don't think it would be enough. The traverse of islands and lack of large open water makes it difficult to operate big subs in the waters.

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Originally Posted by judasmartel View Post
Seems like everyone's talking about naval warfare, which of course Philippines can't simply win on their own. But if we brought the war on the mountains and shoot the Chinese out of nowhere...
The Filipino mountains are often near forested areas. No need to bring them there, imitating the NVA at the foot should be more than enough to inflict tremendous casualties.

Of course, the Chinese Navy would simply just level the whole place to the ground with en-masse air/missile strikes.

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China trying to physically invade the Philippines sounds too risky for them to even consider attempting. Do they even have enough troop transports to really carry something like this out?

Then there's the precarious fact that if the United States 7th fleet did intervene, the PLA could be left with tens of thousands of their soldiers stranded on a hostile island country with no support, or way to escape. Seeing an entire army get taken prisoner wholesale on an ill advised foreign adventure would be a public relations nightmare for the Chinese government.
Not in the future. The US is downsizing their military while China is increasing theirs....and we don't have the mountains like in the Korean War to deter the strategic value of nukes and large bombs.
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Old 2012-04-29, 11:38   Link #105
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Chinese navy and army are still couple decades behind US. The Chinese know this. They are not going to escalate the South China Sea disputes into a full-scale war. Pentagon is also shifting focus to Pacific, including new base in Australia - a clear signal that US is devoted to maintain their military advantage, and will not abandon their allies in SEA.

There is close to zero chance of actual war. For the simple reason that both sides know that it won't benefit themselves. China cannot win yet. US is just not interested in another war. The situation is unlikely to change in foreseeable future.
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Old 2012-04-29, 21:32   Link #106
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China rejects Philippine request for mediation in sea row
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-rejec...173549025.html

China know they violate UNCLOS 1982, which they already signed. so they dont want to lose to a small country.
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Old 2012-04-29, 21:43   Link #107
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China rejects Philippine request for mediation in sea row
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-rejec...173549025.html

China know they violate UNCLOS 1982, which they already signed. so they dont want to lose to a small country.
They are thinking of playing US in the Iraq war where the UN rejected the offensive.....heck-care the UN and hope the world would sit and watch while they attack the Philippines.
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Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.
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Old 2012-04-29, 21:45   Link #108
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Originally Posted by Kokukirin View Post
Chinese navy and army are still couple decades behind US. The Chinese know this. They are not going to escalate the South China Sea disputes into a full-scale war. Pentagon is also shifting focus to Pacific, including new base in Australia - a clear signal that US is devoted to maintain their military advantage, and will not abandon their allies in SEA.

There is close to zero chance of actual war. For the simple reason that both sides know that it won't benefit themselves. China cannot win yet. US is just not interested in another war. The situation is unlikely to change in foreseeable future.
This is resting on the assumption that the US will get militarily involved in a shooting naval conflict between China and the Philippines. However, you also mentioned that the "US is just not interested in another war." Taking this into account, it seems like this is the best time for China to bully its neighbors while the US is reluctant to intervene and its opponent is at its weakest. The Philippine Navy's warships are mostly composed of old donated patrol corvettes and WWII-era destroyer escorts. Heck, its current flagship is a former US Coast Guard cutter. Why is a decommissioned Coast Guard vessel serving as a Navy's flagship?

With US intervention potentially out of the picture, it becomes easier to see why China isn't backing down in a maritime standoff with its southern neighbor. It has a chance of getting away with a 1988 China vs Vietnam-style naval skirmish, if the two navies come to blows over the current dispute. Even if you say the Chinese Navy is outdated, the Philippine Navy as it stands now is much more outdated.
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Old 2012-04-29, 21:51   Link #109
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Lol did anyone even believe that our navy would last 30 minutes in a real fight?

Like I said before, for all the demanding macho posing many fringe civil society groups are doing in the streets, it stands to fact and reason that we're fucked in a fight, so it's funny that they protest both against China's incursion and any other foreign military presence.
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Old 2012-04-29, 22:13   Link #110
Coldlight
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Lol did anyone even believe that our navy would last 30 minutes in a real fight?
To be fair, I think there are others who don't know just how weak the Philippine Navy is. A few Chinese anti-ship missiles will solve China's problem in a confrontation. Their opponents won't be able to return fire because they don't really have anything comparable.
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Old 2012-04-29, 22:49   Link #111
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Slight off topic, but it might help to diffuse the stereotype a little bit.
China launches Compass duo via Long March 3B.
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Old 2012-04-29, 22:52   Link #112
Sumeragi
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What stereotype?
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Old 2012-04-29, 23:09   Link #113
Tom Bombadil
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What stereotype?
Check the previous page.

As for all the talks about wars, there won't be one! All China needs is constant patrol of the area. You don't need firing shots for that. As for the Philippines, are they going to fire at Chinese patrol ships, then cry "bully"? Or are they going to sacrifice their own ships in order to get a US base back on their own land?
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Old 2012-04-29, 23:29   Link #114
Sumeragi
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As for all the talks about wars, there won't be one! All China needs is constant patrol of the area. You don't need firing shots for that. As for the Philippines, are they going to fire at Chinese patrol ships, then cry "bully"? Or are they going to sacrifice their own ships in order to get a US base back on their own land?
Depends on how PRC pushes it. If the patrols are getting really annoying, they can fire warning shots under "self-defense". If PRC fires on the Philippines ship, then it's the PRC that committed aggression.

And knowing how the Dokdo situation was done in the 1950's~1960's, I can imagine such a scenario happening.
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Old 2012-04-30, 00:16   Link #115
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Depends on how PRC pushes it. If the patrols are getting really annoying, they can fire warning shots under "self-defense". If PRC fires on the Philippines ship, then it's the PRC that committed aggression.

And knowing how the Dokdo situation was done in the 1950's~1960's, I can imagine such a scenario happening.
Some naval doctrine here: warning shots can only be fired upon a demonstration of hostile intent. Meaning which just sailing in do not count towards that, even if it is a military craft.

The Filipino navy doing so could be counted as a "aggressive intent", giving the China navy the "right of self-defence". China knows this, and they are baiting with all that posturing, while the Filipino nationalists are just aggravating by calling for war.

It is the geography of the area and the waters around Scarborough that makes it a tenous issue of China not to be given the rights to that place. If China quotes "peaceful rise" all the time, how about leaving SEA alone?

This issue isn't about the island itself. It is about the naval boundaries China is going to draw after they cliam that place.

China reach in focus at U.S.- Philippine security talks

Quote:
(Reuters) - China is likely to be high on the agenda at top level U.S.-Philippine security talks on Monday as Washington refocuses its foreign policy on Asia and Manila realizes its limits in trying to solve territorial disputes with Beijing alone.

China has maritime spats with several countries in the South China Sea, believed to be rich in oil and gas and crossed by important shipping lanes, and its neighbors fear its growing naval reach in staking claims.

Those disputes are pushing the Philippines to seek closer cooperation with the United States, which in turn has prompted China to warn Washington against getting involved, denouncing last week's U.S.-Philippine military drills as bringing the risk of armed conflict closer.

"I'm sure we need to be diplomatic, but I don't think we should tip-toe around the Chinese on this," said Walter Lohman, director of the Asian Studies Center with the conservative Washington-based Heritage Foundation think tank.

"...There is nothing new about the U.S. exercising with the Philippines. We shouldn't refrain because the Chinese don't like it. In fact, I expect the (Washington meeting) will come up with some agreement on increasing the frequency and variety of exercises, ship visits. Also expect agreement on hardware, joint use of Philippines' training facilities and bases."

The talks also coincide with a potential new source of tension between Washington and Beijing after blind activist Chen Guangcheng was reported late last week to have sought U.S. protection in the Chinese capital after an audacious escape from 19 months under house arrest.

On Sunday, China said it had made "stern representations" to the Philippines about its proposal for international arbitration over Scarborough Shoal, site of the most recent stand-off between the two sides.

"China urges the Philippines to earnestly respect China's sovereignty and do nothing to expand or complicate matters," the ministry cited Deng Zhonghua, head of its department of boundary and ocean affairs, as saying.

Manila's moves to strengthen security ties with its former colonial master coincide with the U.S. foreign policy "pivot" towards Asia to concentrate on, among other things, North Korea's nuclear ambitions and China's military buildup.

Twenty years after the Philippines voted to remove American bases, it now wants to give U.S. troops more access to its ports and airfields.

"We enjoy a really close military-to-military relationship with the Philippines and I think certainly coming out of this two plus two, we'll be looking for ways to improve and enhance that relationship," said Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain John Kirby, referring to talks between the defence and foreign secretaries, the highest-level security talks yet between the two sides.

"But it is safe to say that ... our relationship with the Philippines is part and parcel of the larger shift to focus on the Asia-Pacific."

A Philippine general familiar with the discussions to be held in Washington said the United States had a list of airfields in the Philippines that it could use for routine deployment of tankers, fighters and transport planes.

"These are not new bases for the Americans, these are still our facilities," said the general who declined to be identified. "They are only asking us if we can share some of our idle space with them."

Kirby said the United States wanted to continue "a rotational and training" relationship. "We're certainly not looking ... for permanent basing there."

This is nevertheless a sensitive area for Philippine President Benigno Aquino, some of whose political advisers are uncomfortable with an expanding U.S. role.

The U.S. plan to use Philippine airports is not new. At the height of U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the mid-2000s, Manila allowed U.S. military planes to refuel at an airport in northernmost Batanes province, close to Taiwan.

"We don't want them back, they create noise when most of us are already asleep," Budget Secretary Florencio "Butch" Abad said of U.S. transport planes landing at night in Basco airport.

Abad is one of Aquino's closest political advisers. Another political adviser told Reuters Aquino would not allow a de facto basing arrangement.

"That's a violation of our constitution," he said.

Philippine foreign and defence officials, however, will use the Washington talks to try to get U.S. backing on its position in the South China Sea, invoking freedom of navigation.

"I think we would want all nations, including the U.S., to make a judgment as to what is happening there (in the South China Sea) and what the implications are to their own security," Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario has said.

A retired Philippine flag officer said Washington, which is shuffling and redeploying its forces around Asia, including in Japan and Australia, wanted to rebuild the "air bridge" between Northeast and Southeast Asia.

"They are trying to plug these holes when they left Clark in 1992," he said, referring to a former U.S. air base in the northern Philippines. "They need airfields more than ports because most of their tactical aircraft are based too far from potential hotspots in Southeast Asia."

Richard Jacobson, of Pacific Strategies and Assessments, cautioned both sides against playing the China card, saying he did not see naval standoffs in the South China Sea as dramatic enough to improve U.S.-Philippines relations.

"It appears more likely that any new strategic partnership will evolve gradually over time," Jacobson told Reuters.
So, do the Filipinos want US in or out?
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When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.

Last edited by SaintessHeart; 2012-04-30 at 02:20.
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Old 2012-04-30, 01:50   Link #116
NoemiChan
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So, do the Filipinos want US in or out?
As a Filipino. I'm definitely want US to help us out. I'm being frank. My country isn't that strong. We are weak in military technology but will still continue to fight even in a losing battle to the bitter end. Just give as the same weapon and will fight better than anyone.
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Old 2012-04-30, 02:00   Link #117
judasmartel
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As a Filipino. I'm definitely want US to help us out. I'm being frank. My country isn't that strong. We are weak in military technology but will still continue to fight even in a losing battle to the bitter end. Just give as the same weapon and will fight better than anyone.
I agree to this. If we want a fighting chance should China wants to push it that far, we're going to need a superpower for an ally. Of course, that doesn't stop leftist groups from throwing US out of the country, which leads to some implications that they are in league with the Chinese.

Remember, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
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Old 2012-04-30, 02:15   Link #118
SaintessHeart
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There won't be a war for quite sometime, not until China has completed their aircraft carriers and beaten US near Taiwan (or until the US military declines and their society collapses under the yoke of public debt).

The real issue is how China is going to draw the naval boundaries with regards to Scarborough, and that is what the media around the world are not focusing on. If they draw it around the islands straight from Hainan, then they would called stupid to allow military encirclement. If they draw it anywhere outside of that, they would be deemed as greedy and audacious going near Philippines, even if they included Taiwan in their territory.

If they knew this is going to happen, why do that? They are just showing off their milpeen because of those fishermen and refusing to back down - if they fear losing their face so much go post more on Facebook.
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When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.
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Old 2012-04-30, 02:35   Link #119
judasmartel
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Ah, so you mean the Chinese are running out of fish so they go fish in PH's territory instead because they know PH can't fight back at them?
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Old 2012-04-30, 02:40   Link #120
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Ah, so you mean the Chinese are running out of fish so they go fish in PH's territory instead because they know PH can't fight back at them?
Those Chinese fishermen are more of sea hunters for me for they even hunt down endangered sea turtles and black corals that are protect by Philippine law. Why would fish on a far away place anyway, like 840kms!? well, unless greed is the major driving factor, I would say.
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