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Old 2012-08-22, 15:51   Link #741
Ichuki
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by seemmeriast View Post
Shizu is taking a significant lead...

I take back my words. Seems like Saki faction is just invincible, even with a not-so-strong character. (According to the prelims, Shizu should be the 17th strongest Saki girl.)
The Saki faction isn't invisible if it turns out Shizu had fakes and lose at the end.

Quote:
Originally Posted by timbits View Post
Just looking at vote numbers, that match has about 20-30 more total votes than the other ones, although it could just be saki faction only voting for the match they care about.
Maybe but Shizuno whose obviously weaker than Toki and having more votes than Toki at the 8th hour kinda makes Shizuno's graph look a little suspicious.
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Last edited by Ichuki; 2012-08-22 at 18:36.
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Old 2012-08-22, 17:44   Link #742
timbits
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Calgary, Canada
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichuki View Post
The Saki faction isn't invisible if it turns out Shizu had fakes and lose at the end.
Just looking at vote numbers, that match has about 20-30 more total votes than the other ones, although it could just be saki faction only voting for the match they care about.
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Old 2012-08-23, 01:27   Link #743
anisu
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Kyouko at 15:00: 149 votes
Ayano at 15:00: 156 with fakes/140 real, ended up with 260
Akari at 15:00: 170, ended up with 325

149/170 * 325 = 285 votes at Kyouko's current pace. Miyanaga Saki got 294, and Koromo got 274.

The fake votes are plentiful and we've still got the traditional Saki rush at the end of the match, so this is too close to call, but it is looking pretty scary for Kyouko.
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Old 2012-08-23, 03:11   Link #744
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Join Date: Feb 2011
Just realized the main round already started for a while. So again this year Rie Kugimiya has the most number of characters that made to the 1st round, which has been the case every year since 2007. Kana Hanazawa again this year has the 2nd most number of characters made to the 1st round. However, this year would be Rie Kugimiya's biggest year because her 5 most famous tsundere are finally competing together in the same year. This is a good chance to see who is the most favorite TsundeRie of all time: Shana, Louise, Nagi, Taiga or Aria. In addition to those 5 there are also other tsundere such as Iori (Idolmaster) and Lotte (Astarotte Omocha).

This year, they all made it to the 1st round of the main battle this year and are separated into different groups (only Nagi and Louise are in the same group). If it goes well for them, 6 of them may reach top 8. I wouldn't be surprised cause almost all of them had reached at least top 8 in the past. If they do, it will be like last year which half of the top 8 were Madoka Magica characters. So far only Iori made it to the 2nd round, let's see if the others will as well.
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Old 2012-08-23, 03:20   Link #745
JW1
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: UK
If the figures in the Kyouko/Shizuno match are anything like real then every non-Saki character should be cowering in terror right now. Either that, or Kyouko's showing in the preliminaries seriously flattered her for some reason.

Having said that, Kyouko's graph looks more organic to me. Whenever I see 'steps' in a graph I start to suspect fakery and Shizu has climbed a few steps.
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Old 2012-08-23, 09:25   Link #746
hinakatbklyn
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Now who has the advantage in Group C? Shizuno wins almost convincingly over Kyouko.
(1) By winning against a strong opponent 1 on 1 without sniping, shizuno could put herself in contention to reach the top 8.
or
(2) Hisa with a higher prelim vote total than Shizuno actually got involved in the match to snipe Kyouko which could put her in contention to win Group C. (I think she can get past her own 1st round split)

Since Saki in general has proven they can beat everyone else (so far) 1 on 1 or by sniping, AST could become Saki vs. Achiga/Toki

At least Nakagawa won her first round match.
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Last edited by hinakatbklyn; 2012-08-23 at 09:43.
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Old 2012-08-23, 10:04   Link #747
ion475
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
Since no one has post it yet...

C01組
1位 409票 高鴨穏乃@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A (Takagamo Shizuno@Saki: Achiga-hen episode of side-A)
2位 366票 歳納京子@ゆるゆり (Toshino Kyoko@Yuruyuri)
3位 44票 松本りせ@ゆるゆり (Matsumoto Rise@Yuruyuri)

C05組
1位 297票 中川かのん@神のみぞ知るセカイ 4人とアイドル (Nakagawa Kanon@Kami Nomi zo Shiru Sekai: Yonjin to Idol)
2位 260票 沢渡楓(ぽって)@たまゆら -hitotose- (Sawatari Fuu (Potte)@Tamayura - hitotose)
3位 104票 岡崎のりえ@たまゆら -hitotose- (Okazaki Norie@Tamayura -hitotose-)

C09組
1位 293票 荻野目苹果(りんご)@輪るピングドラム (Oginome Ringo@Mawaru Penguindrum)
2位 261票 塙かおる(かおたん)@たまゆら -hitotose- (Hanawa Kaoru (Kao-tan)@Tamayura -hitotose-)
3位 159票 はかせ@日常 (Hakase@Nichijou)
================================================== ======
1-2 Today for me (Total 17-10). Split vote kill Potte as expected, while Hakase...sigh...

Shizu is stronger than I thought (Either that or Kyouko is weaker than I thought). At least the end margin is not as big as it was with all the fakes/repeats (Shizu was leading by like 100...)

For next round. C02 girls are not too strong, C06 is Buchou's to lose, C10 is 3 mid-tier girls...

Vote:
C02: <<明智小衣@探偵オペラ ミルキィホームズ シリーズ>>
C06: <<竹井久@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
C10: <<神原駿河@偽物語>>

Guess is identical (Kokoro, Hisa, Ganbaru)
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Old 2012-08-23, 10:53   Link #748
Ichuki
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by hinakatbklyn View Post
Now who has the advantage in Group C? Shizuno wins almost convincingly over Kyouko.
(1) By winning against a strong opponent 1 on 1 without sniping, shizuno could put herself in contention to reach the top 8.
or
(2) Hisa with a higher prelim vote total than Shizuno actually got involved in the match to snipe Kyouko which could put her in contention to win Group C. (I think she can get past her own 1st round split)

Since Saki in general has proven they can beat everyone else (so far) 1 on 1 or by sniping, AST could become Saki vs. Achiga/Toki

At least Nakagawa won her first round match.
I'm guessing Cure Peace or Cuuko or Chinatsu, since Shizuno is most likely used as a snipe since the Saki faction realized how much of a threat Kyouko was. If Cuuko won round 1 she may have the potential to snipe Shizuno due to anyone against Saki plus her faction. For Peace there might be a case anti Saki factions/ anyone who is angry at Saki believe she's the strongest after Kyouko and start using her then snipe the which ever Saki girl makes it to round 4. Chinatsu's case is probably the YuruYuri faction making her look stronger than Akarin until all the Saki girls get eliminated.

Picks- Sen
Predictions- Kokoro, Hisa, Sen
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Last edited by Ichuki; 2012-08-23 at 17:44.
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Old 2012-08-23, 11:10   Link #749
Aya Reiko
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Shameimaru's lap
Images
Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Guesses...
Eila, Hisa, and Suruga
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Old 2012-08-23, 11:32   Link #750
seemmeriast
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Shizu didn't even need split vote. Kyouko and Rise have 410 combined votes VS Shizu's 409.
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Old 2012-08-23, 11:37   Link #751
JW1
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: UK
20% of Shizu's votes were fakes and she still won handily. A pretty frightening result for anyone not called Toki.
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Old 2012-08-23, 13:21   Link #752
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The last chance for Ben-to to win anything. So sad...
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Old 2012-08-23, 17:13   Link #753
Wanderer
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
0-3 on predictions and Kyouko loses. Ouch.

Picks (15-11), Predictions (19-8)

C02
Kokoro Akechi @ Detective Opera Milky Holmes: <<明智小衣@探偵オペラ ミルキィホームズ シリーズ>>
Hare Menjou @ Guilty Crown: <<校条祭(ハレ)@ギルティクラウン>>
Eila Ilmatar Juutilainen @ Strike Witches: <<エイラ・イルマタル・ユーティライネン@ストライクウィッチーズ劇場版>>

C06
Yuuka Morigaki @ Saki: <<森垣友香@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
Hisa Takei @ Saki: <<竹井久@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
Sae Nakata @ Amagami SS: <<中多紗江@アマガミSS+ plus>>

C10
Sen Yarizui @ Ben-To: <<槍水仙(氷結の魔女)@ベン・トー>>
Suruga Kanbaru @ Ghostory: <<神原駿河@偽物語>>
Ui Hirasawa @ K-On!: <<平沢憂@映画 けいおん!>>
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Old 2012-08-23, 18:17   Link #754
Micchi
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Ottawa, Canada
Picks: 3-0 (17-10)
Predictions: 2-1 (21-6)

Kyouko once again gets a lot of votes, but falls short to an Achiga girl. Maybe Ako gave Shizu some tips. Poor Tamayura. We hardly knew thee.

Picks: Eila, Sae, Ui
Predictions: Eila, Hisa, Ui

Banking on SW and K-ON! momentum here. Hisa doesn't need any help. She's just teasing Sae since it makes things interesting. And everyone loves teasing Sae. Including me.
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Old 2012-08-23, 19:13   Link #755
jorez
but the kid is not my son
 
 
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Age: 24
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A battle between Kanbaru and Ui. Gonna go with #TeamFanservicestory.
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Old 2012-08-23, 19:38   Link #756
Team Rocket Elite
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I'm surprised to see Shizuno managed to beat Kyouko. Just a vote shy of a majority so the split didn't matter. Maybe it shouldn't be that surprising since Shizuno did go even with Kataoka Yuuki who looked pretty good earlier on. Maybe Shizuno is higher on the Saki popularity chain than I thought but if not the other fanbases have a lot of sniping to do to have a chance at winning the tournament. I actually didn't look at the second match much when I chose Fuu to win. Maybe if I did, I would have noticed the other hitotose character in the match. Tough luck for Fuu here. If you take Norie out of the match and redestributed the votes, Fuu only needed 68% of them to win. I think that's still a bit high but it seems possible that the split vote cost Fuu the match. Ringo takes the third match as I thought she would.

For the first match today I thought Kokoro would win but right now it seems like she's getting killed by Eila. Hisa was supposed to be an easy win but seems to have having trouble with Sae. Maybe the Saki fanbase finally pissed off enough people when they took down Kyouko. I also expected Ui to win without much trouble but Sen is leading right now.

Votes:
Menjou Hare
Takei Hisa
Hirasawa Ui

Predictions (from before looking at the poll tracker):
Akechi Kokoro
Takei Hisa
Hirasawa Ui

Edit:
Kokoro turns out to be a fair bit weaker than I thought she would. Eila doesn't have any problems winning the match. Hisa won her match but had a lot more trouble than I expected. Sae did badly in fire preliminaries and barely got in through second preliminaries. Even with the split votes, I through Sae would do a lot worse. While Ui won her match, once again the margin of victory was smaller than expected. I think I was just underestimating Sen here.

Francesca shouldn't be much of a threat to Kuuko. They were from the same prelim group and Kuuko was ahead by quite a bit. Chinatsu may be from Yuru Yuri but she's the weakest of the main four. Kuuko is likely too much for her to handle. Astarotte shouldn't have much trouble with the second match. She's probably weaker than last year but not weak enough to lose this match. We've got several midcarders in the third match. It's tough luck that they had to draw each other when there a quite a few other matches they could have advanced in. I like how the Strike Witches have done so far so I think Erica has this.

Votes:
Kuuko
Oohoshi Awai
Erica Hartmann

Predictions:
Kuuko
Astarotte Ygvar
Erica Hartmann
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Last edited by Team Rocket Elite; 2012-08-24 at 09:18.
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Old 2012-08-24, 09:25   Link #757
ion475
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
Results...

C02組
1位 267票 エイラ・イルマタル・ユーティライネン@ストライクウィッチーズ劇場版 (Eila Ilmatar Juutilainen@Strike Witches Movie)
2位 186票 明智小衣@探偵オペラ ミルキィホームズ シリーズ (Akechi Kokoro@Tantei Opera Milky Holmes series)
3位 102票 校条祭(ハレ)@ギルティクラウン (Menjou Hare@Guilty Crown)

C06組
1位 285票 竹井久@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A (Takei Hisa@Saki: Achiga-hen episode of side-A)
2位 218票 中多紗江@アマガミSS+ plus (Nakata Sae@Amagami SS+ plus)
3位 75票 森垣友香@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A (Morigaki Yuuka@Saki: Achiga-hen episode of side-A)

C10組
1位 264票 平沢憂@映画 けいおん! (Hirasawa Ui@Movie K-On!)
2位 251票 槍水仙(氷結の魔女)@ベン・トー (Yarizui Sen@Ben-To)
3位 71票 神原駿河@偽物語 (Ganbaru Suruga@Nisemonogatari)
================================================== ======
Another 1-2 round for me (Total 18-12). Of course, get burned badly by Suruga, while I should have went with the always safe Strike Witches instead of Kokoro...

For next round
Vote:
C03: <<吉川ちなつ@ゆるゆり>>
C07: <<アスタロッテ・ユグヴァール(ロッテ)@アスタロッテのおもちゃ! EX>>
C11: <<湯音@異国迷路のクロワーゼ The Animation>>

Guess: Kuuko, Rotte, Erica. Kuuko already beat Frencesca in prelim, and Chinatsu is on the weak side of Yuruyuri spectrum. 2nd match, unless IM hide their strength that well, Rotte should win easily. C11 = 3 mid-carders, where the safe choice is always Strike Witches.
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Last edited by ion475; 2012-08-24 at 09:37.
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Old 2012-08-24, 09:30   Link #758
stormtrooper
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Saimoe Planet
Picks
Kuuko
Awai
Erica Hartmann

Predictions
Kuuko
Astarotte Ygvar
Erica Hartmann

I'm all for Erica in this match
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Old 2012-08-24, 10:15   Link #759
Aya Reiko
Cutengu
 
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Shameimaru's lap
Wow... didn't think Suruga was THAT weak.

Images
Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Guesses...
Cuuko ...Mami, Erica
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Old 2012-08-24, 10:29   Link #760
Ichuki
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Picks- Cuuko, Mami, Yune

Prediction- Cuuko, Mami (Well I don't think Lotte no Omocha faction wants to split vote in round 2), Sonya
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2012, anime saimoe tournament, saimoe, tournament

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