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Old 2012-10-27, 03:46   Link #581
Ascaloth
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Incidentally, did no one here ever wonder why the junta in Myanmar chose now, of all times, to open the country to democracy?

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Old 2012-10-27, 03:55   Link #582
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I still don't understand why people are surprised by China's recent moves, it's just their version of election year rhetorics. It is meant for, and so far proved to be rather successful with their domestic politics.

On the part of the US, is the US encircling China? of course, as the reigning world hegemon it'd be crazy not to, but it's hardly something to be surprised about, anyone would've done the same thing if they were in the US's shoes.
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Old 2012-10-27, 04:49   Link #583
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Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil View Post
WTF, dispute with inner Mongolia? Next post you are going to talk about China's territorial dispute with Beijing.
It was on the list over Songling District and Jiagedaqi District. My knowldge in inner-Chinese conflicts is limited.
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Old 2012-10-27, 05:03   Link #584
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Originally Posted by Ascaloth View Post
Incidentally, did no one here ever wonder why the junta in Myanmar chose now, of all times, to open the country to democracy?

Pretty smart move from a business standpoint - highest bidder attraction.

Singapore did the same in the 1970s.
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Old 2012-10-27, 06:41   Link #585
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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Pretty smart move from a business standpoint - highest bidder attraction.

Singapore did the same in the 1970s.
Maybe that as well. But why not earlier? For that matter, why bother opening up at all?
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Old 2012-10-27, 06:58   Link #586
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Originally Posted by Ascaloth View Post
Maybe that as well. But why not earlier? For that matter, why bother opening up at all?
From what discussions I have with some people familiar with Myanmarese business protocols and climate, apparently they are doing it because of a few things. One is that China has got too many fingers in their economic pie and they want more balance, and the additional pressure comes from Thailand and the sudden inclination of Vietnam towards US alliances in the region.

I don't know how accurate such data are, I am assuming relevance since these people tend to provide more information that news networks.
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Old 2012-10-27, 07:31   Link #587
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Close. Myanmar is indeed feeling the squeeze from China as well. The opening up to the USA? It's pretty much in the same vein as Vietnam, the Philippines and almost every country in the region warming up to the United States these days.
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Old 2012-10-27, 13:10   Link #588
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Originally Posted by kyp275 View Post
I still don't understand why people are surprised by China's recent moves, it's just their version of election year rhetorics. It is meant for, and so far proved to be rather successful with their domestic politics.
Because they never take POL101.

In a way, Ishihara and CCP are "helping" each others. Senkaku is simply an effective distraction nowadays, for those of Philippines and Vietnamese territories and domestic politics as mentioned. Ishihara needs a threat to be made apparent to the Japanese ppl to push his own politics more easily. On the other hand, it's not a bad thing for CCP when USA shows up around Senkaku. The chinese citizens' opinion of US and Japan has been dropping, and CCP WANTS THIS.

Last edited by maplehurry; 2012-10-27 at 13:42.
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Old 2012-10-27, 14:27   Link #589
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At the price of diplomatic relations and their economy.

As I said the hawks are ruining what others laid out for a Chinese hegemony.

What do they think opening their market, investing in other countries and thus opening their markets are for?

Personal greed should not supersede your country's greater interest.
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Old 2012-10-27, 15:20   Link #590
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Originally Posted by ReddyRedWolf View Post
At the price of diplomatic relations and their economy.

As I said the hawks are ruining what others laid out for a Chinese hegemony.

What do they think opening their market, investing in other countries and thus opening their markets are for?

Personal greed should not supersede your country's greater interest.
As CCP is undergoing one of their most tumultuous and scandal-ridden transition period in decades while undergoing a period of slower growth and civil unrest, short-term diplomatic issues isn't really that high on their priority list.

And frankly, China is just leveraging their economy against any potential long term diplomatic fallout, as corporations still view them as a source of cheap labor and a giant well of untapped market.

Basically, think GOP's foreign policy rhetoric, which is talk tough even though everyone in the room knows you're just bluffing, and times 100.
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Old 2012-10-27, 17:33   Link #591
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Originally Posted by kyp275 View Post
As CCP is undergoing one of their most tumultuous and scandal-ridden transition period in decades while undergoing a period of slower growth and civil unrest, short-term diplomatic issues isn't really that high on their priority list.

And frankly, China is just leveraging their economy against any potential long term diplomatic fallout, as corporations still view them as a source of cheap labor and a giant well of untapped market.
I think the CCP is due for being overthrown with all the scandals piling up like sandwiches and with the people starting to distrust the CCP.

With all due respect to what Cherudim Arche wrote earlier today, I still view India as the next main source of cheap labor to look after and quite a well of untapped market that looks great the next 10-15 years. By that time frame, India's population will already exceed China's and India are just asking Western countries to look at them more seriously. After all, where was China before all those companies came in? The same could be said about India's current situation.

About Ishihara, the good news is that the bastard is going to retire soon. I don't know what will happen next, but I'd love it if the Japanese government will be willing to show a stronger stance when it comes to rules of engagement in defending the waters around those islands. I read something the other day about ROK coast guards intercepting 30 Chinese fishing boats in ROK waters and then taking all the fishermen into the brig. Unfortunately, one Chinese fisherman died of injuries sustained by a rubber bullet hit after resisting his arrest.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ast-guard-raid

The matter here is not about having someone dead, but I expect the Japanese to show more cojones and to not hesitate next time when it comes to detain the fools who do not take warnings seriously. After all, what would be the job of the coast guard if not enforce the laws in territorial waters?
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Old 2012-10-27, 17:39   Link #592
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For those that think India is cheap labour, think again. It is chaotic : a dozen different tongues in a dozen different districts, you deal with tribal leaders or Indian Mafia outside of their Chamber of Commerce, and private ports work more efficiently than government ones.

The only thing that is the same as China is that coffee money is a universal way to reach agreements.
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Old 2012-10-27, 18:30   Link #593
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Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan View Post
I think the CCP is due for being overthrown with all the scandals piling up like sandwiches and with the people starting to distrust the CCP.

With all due respect to what Cherudim Arche wrote earlier today, I still view India as the next main source of cheap labor to look after and quite a well of untapped market that looks great the next 10-15 years. By that time frame, India's population will already exceed China's and India are just asking Western countries to look at them more seriously. After all, where was China before all those companies came in? The same could be said about India's current situation.


About Ishihara, the good news is that the bastard is going to retire soon. I don't know what will happen next, but I'd love it if the Japanese government will be willing to show a stronger stance when it comes to rules of engagement in defending the waters around those islands. I read something the other day about ROK coast guards intercepting 30 Chinese fishing boats in ROK waters and then taking all the fishermen into the brig. Unfortunately, one Chinese fisherman died of injuries sustained by a rubber bullet hit after resisting his arrest.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ast-guard-raid

The matter here is not about having someone dead, but I expect the Japanese to show more cojones and to not hesitate next time when it comes to detain the fools who do not take warnings seriously. After all, what would be the job of the coast guard if not enforce the laws in territorial waters?
The reason I disagree is it isn't just about the numbers. For Africa could be comparably the same when it come to cheap labor. There is also the issue that despite having large numbers, it doesn't necessary translate to high skill knowledge jobs except those born in the social status. It is also having the means to do so. Did you forget that China specially had policies to change what it was doing in the past! It did not pull anything out of thin air. India, despite well intentions of becoming better has not really taken giant step to altering what it is doing now. Why do you think India would rely so much on US, when it knows that it is lacking compare to the other economic powerhouses.

As for labor, yes it does for certain products more than others. A culture barrier is a big issue, for western nations do not have to relearn everything when it comes dealing with them. China has been more than willing to discard is approaches for more efficient ones when comes to developing with foreign companies.

I would be very careful how the handle captives though in order not to make it another incident that is going to hurt Japan. I don't think Japan needs another hot issue to be thrown into the air along with what is going here.

I think your also forgetting that it is not in its "territory waters". That China and Taiwan could go through there and render the enforcement void by cutting through or by taking other detours. It more or less means that it is unenforceable. That it become who can stay at sea the longest when it comes to territory. It is not about who has the biggest gun, but who outlast them at sea. That is fundamentally the problem when it comes to sending the JDSF to patrol there. China could sent even more and disregard any presence that Japanese have. For they are closer in the EEZ as well as Taiwan over patrols.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/16971161.cms

Last edited by Cherudim Arche; 2012-10-27 at 18:51.
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Old 2012-10-27, 20:11   Link #594
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Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan View Post
I think the CCP is due for being overthrown with all the scandals piling up like sandwiches and with the people starting to distrust the CCP.
the scandals are nothing new, and there's no inherent trust of the government by the chinese citizenry to begin with anyway. The only reason CCP has held grip over the country these days is purely because it has been able to provide the economic growth. As their growth inevitably slows down and the rich/poor gap becomes even wider, China is going to have to deal with some serious internal unrest.

Quote:
With all due respect to what Cherudim Arche wrote earlier today, I still view India as the next main source of cheap labor to look after and quite a well of untapped market that looks great the next 10-15 years. By that time frame, India's population will already exceed China's and India are just asking Western countries to look at them more seriously. After all, where was China before all those companies came in? The same could be said about India's current situation.
TBH, I'd say Thailand/Vietnam/Malaysia are better positioned atm than India. Like Cherudim said above, India has a host of serious social issues to deal with, the population is severely fragmented, the caste system is very much alive, etc. India has the human capital, but it has to make some serious fundamental changes if it wants to be a serious competitor.

Quote:
About Ishihara, the good news is that the bastard is going to retire soon.
Last I heard Ishihara is going to form a new party after his stint as governor is over, so you haven't seen the last of him just yet

Quote:
I don't know what will happen next, but I'd love it if the Japanese government will be willing to show a stronger stance when it comes to rules of engagement in defending the waters around those islands. I read something the other day about ROK coast guards intercepting 30 Chinese fishing boats in ROK waters and then taking all the fishermen into the brig. Unfortunately, one Chinese fisherman died of injuries sustained by a rubber bullet hit after resisting his arrest.

The matter here is not about having someone dead, but I expect the Japanese to show more cojones and to not hesitate next time when it comes to detain the fools who do not take warnings seriously. After all, what would be the job of the coast guard if not enforce the laws in territorial waters?
You'd love it, the Japanese govt and business would not.
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Old 2012-10-27, 20:53   Link #595
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Originally Posted by kyp275 View Post
the scandals are nothing new, and there's no inherent trust of the government by the chinese citizenry to begin with anyway. The only reason CCP has held grip over the country these days is purely because it has been able to provide the economic growth. As their growth inevitably slows down and the rich/poor gap becomes even wider, China is going to have to deal with some serious internal unrest.
And those days are coming fast as unrest can lead to separatism. When I look at the overall history of China, I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up cutting itself into pieces the same way the former USSR ended up being divided into several countries. After all, Russia and the USSR conquered several countries to be that juggernaut we used to know, but separatism came up when people had enough of the central government (late 1980s and early 1990s).

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TBH, I'd say Thailand/Vietnam/Malaysia are better positioned atm than India. Like Cherudim said above, India has a host of serious social issues to deal with, the population is severely fragmented, the caste system is very much alive, etc. India has the human capital, but it has to make some serious fundamental changes if it wants to be a serious competitor.
That could have been true at another time. However, there has been quite a number of major changes in India in order to change the situation and things look to be ever improving, thanks to massive female education.

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Originally Posted by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caste_system_in_India

Since 1950, India has enacted and implemented many laws and social initiatives to protect and improve the socio-economic conditions of its Dalit population. By 1995, of all jobs in the Central Government service, 17.2 percent of the jobs were held by Dalits. Of the highest paying, senior most jobs in government agencies and government controlled enterprises, over 10 percent were held by members of the Dalit community, a tenfold increase in 40 years but yet to fill up the 15 percent reserved quota for them. In 1997, India democratically elected K.R. Narayanan, a Dalit, as the nation's President. In the last 15 years, Indians born in historically discriminated minority castes have been elected to its highest judicial and political offices. While the quality of life of Dalit population in India, in terms of metrics such as poverty, literacy rate, access to health care, life expectancy, education attainability, access to drinking water, housing, etc. have seen faster growth amongst the Dalit population between 1986 and 2006, for some metrics, it remains lower than overall non-Dalit population, and for some it is better than poor non-Dalit population.

A 2003 report claims inter-caste marriage is on the rise in urban India. Indian societal relationships are changing because of female literacy and education, women at work, urbanization, need for two-income families, and influences from the media.

India's overall economic growth has produced the fastest and most significant socio-economic changes to the historical injustice to its minorities. Legal and social program initiatives are no longer India's primary constraint in further advancement of India's historically discriminated sections of society and the poor. Further advancements are likely to come from improvements in the supply of quality schools in rural and urban India, along with India's economic growth.
All that takes now is to have more countries showing the same big eyes of interest as they did with China before.

Quote:
Last I heard Ishihara is going to form a new party after his stint as governor is over, so you haven't seen the last of him just yet
At age 80? Isn't that too much asked for someone of his age? Well, if he wants to get all radicals (including his son) alongside him and create a true equivalent to France's Front National, good luck in trying to get elected. New and radical parties poping up in established parlimentary governments are usually worth nothing.

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You'd love it, the Japanese govt and business would not.
I'm sure the ROK knew what to expect with tough enforcement by the coast guard as well as what could happen with a mishap. However, I don't think that South Koreans will back down from their own set of rules of engagement and, so far, the PRC did nothing of a political/business response against the ROK. Meanwhile, I would strongly be concerned if I was a Japanese seeing my own government acting like pussies; you can't swallow your pride forever.
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Old 2012-10-27, 21:25   Link #596
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Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan View Post
And those days are coming fast as unrest can lead to separatism. When I look at the overall history of China, I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up cutting itself into pieces the same way the former USSR ended up being divided into several countries. After all, Russia and the USSR conquered several countries to be that juggernaut we used to know, but separatism came up when people had enough of the central government (late 1980s and early 1990s).
That scenario is highly unlikely for most of China, the western-most province have some Uyghur separatists, but for the most part modern day China shares the same mainstream culture and have been part of the same nation for quite some time, something that the USSR obviously did not have.

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That could have been true at another time. However, there has been quite a number of major changes in India in order to change the situation and things look to be ever improving, thanks to massive female education.
Such as? last I heard the caste system is alive and well, honor killing of females continues in the face of half-hearted legislation. India may not be Saudi Arabia, but it's far from being a shining beacon of sexual equality. In this regard India is eerily similar to China, in that the vast majority of the improvement is reserved for a small percentage of the population while the vast majority continues to wallow in poverty . Are they making strides? of course, but their issues are not even remotely close to being addressed.

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I'm sure the ROK knew what to expect with tough enforcement by the coast guard as well as what could happen with a mishap. However, I don't think that South Koreans will back down from their own set of rules of engagement and, so far, the PRC did nothing of a political/business response against the ROK. Meanwhile, I would strongly be concerned if I was a Japanese seeing my own government acting like pussies; you can't swallow your pride forever.
Successful foreign policy are crafted on the basis of practicality and pragmatism, national pride and rhetoric are fine for domestic politics, but it doesn't really belong in serious international politics, especially if you have no domestic need and it doesn't serve to further your own interests.
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Old 2012-10-27, 22:18   Link #597
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Originally Posted by kyp275 View Post
Such as? last I heard the caste system is alive and well, honor killing of females continues in the face of half-hearted legislation. India may not be Saudi Arabia, but it's far from being a shining beacon of sexual equality. In this regard India is eerily similar to China, in that the vast majority of the improvement is reserved for a small percentage of the population while the vast majority continues to wallow in poverty . Are they making strides? of course, but their issues are not even remotely close to being addressed.
It's far from being perfect as you said, but no one ever said it could be done overnight. With more women (and people who originally come from lower castes) officially holding high-profile positions, this can only improve the standards within the next 10-15 years. Until further notice, we had killing of female fetuses in China bound by the single-child policy and abandonment of young girls by their parents. And when it is documented that improvement of women's condition is a huge reason behind India's economic growth, so that's not something the government would let go off the hook for whatever reason.

All I can say is that distrusting India for any reason is disturbingly short-sighted (and forgetful about the possibility of them opening themselves more to the world) considering how some Western fools opened up their arms to the PRC, quite also a land of social injustice, when doing business.

Quote:
Successful foreign policy are crafted on the basis of practicality and pragmatism, national pride and rhetoric are fine for domestic politics, but it doesn't really belong in serious international politics, especially if you have no domestic need and it doesn't serve to further your own interests.
On practical terms, the need to defend those islands is necessary for exploiting those oil fields ASAP if Japan is looking to achieve some form of energy independence. So on those grounds, I would yes, it serves Japan's interests further by holding ground with a strong foot on those islands and make sure that no one screws around with the JCG.
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Old 2012-10-27, 23:48   Link #598
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Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan View Post
It's far from being perfect as you said, but no one ever said it could be done overnight. With more women (and people who originally come from lower castes) officially holding high-profile positions, this can only improve the standards within the next 10-15 years. Until further notice, we had killing of female fetuses in China bound by the single-child policy and abandonment of young girls by their parents. And when it is documented that improvement of women's condition is a huge reason behind India's economic growth, so that's not something the government would let go off the hook for whatever reason.

All I can say is that distrusting India for any reason is disturbingly short-sighted (and forgetful about the possibility of them opening themselves more to the world) considering how some Western fools opened up their arms to the PRC, quite also a land of social injustice, when doing business.
I certainly hope so. Like I said, India has the human capital to be extremely successful, but they've got a long way to go before they get to that point. 10-15 years is a bit too optimistic IMO, thousands of years of traditions are not so easily overcome, especially when most of the attempts at modernizing has been at the central govt level without much local govt/population support. Much like China, the urban centers of India is prospering, but go out to the slums, or the vast rural areas where most of the population resides, the improvements are just not moving very fast, if at all.

As far as social injustice goes, the two are a wash in my book. Both have serious issues that isn't likely to be fixed in the short term.

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On practical terms, the need to defend those islands is necessary for exploiting those oil fields ASAP if Japan is looking to achieve some form of energy independence. So on those grounds, I would yes, it serves Japan's interests further by holding ground with a strong foot on those islands and make sure that no one screws around with the JCG.
On that note, I'd just like to point out the last time Japan entered into conflict seeking oil for energy independence, it didn't end very well

There are certainly benefits to be able to exploit the Senkakus, but that alone would not be remotely close to being enough to achieve energy independence for Japan(the only realistic option would be nuclear). So then it boils down to a cost vs. benefit analysis, would the profits from actively exploiting the resources in Senkaku outweight the financial cost of a meltdown in trade, or in the worst case scenario, open war with China?

My guess would be no.
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Old 2012-10-28, 04:27   Link #599
Jinto
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In contrast to China, India has very complicated national and local laws (e.g. regarding land ownership). A company that wants to build a new plant in India typically has to deal with a legal process that makes the whole project twice as long and twice as expensive as in comparison to China.
But in the recent years this advantage is decreasing, because China introduced tougher environmental laws. Still, China clearly has an advantage here.
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Old 2012-10-28, 14:12   Link #600
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nothing else to say about the other disputes?
Somebody negatively rep me and posted the above challenge. However, I don't want to waste my time to enlighten the ignorant. Let me just say that the India and Chinese disputed area are called Aksai Chin and South Tibet (called Arunachal Pradesh). One of the post earlier that tried to give a list didn't even get that right.
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