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Old 2013-04-29, 22:23   Link #681
KholdStare
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I don't think Asuna's strength against Saber last year was a fluke. I myself was in love with Asuna at that time. Then the SAO anime took a horrible, horrible downturn with plot holes and very questionable character development, and I ended up hating the anime. I'm sure some people also experienced the same.
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Old 2013-04-29, 22:26   Link #682
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- Having Momo face Ririchiyo on a different day got her a win, Bad luck for Mikan to face the same opponent when all the 1 vs 1 opponents are facing each other on the same day.

- Hanazawa now has 3 reps in the necklace match, which benefits Kanade alot more. Also doesn't help Ruri since Kirino got in as a wildcard to give the two a split disadvantage. Even if Kobato has a seiyuu split in the necklace round, to earn a win over a tough opponent, she gets to keep her 7-0 record for Aqua.

- Surprise win for Taiga against Euu..... and it didn't look that close either.

- Kyou was not planning on going 0-35. Only one win was needed to get her 200th win.

- Had it been close voting, I would of suspected tactical voting..... but Mashiro has a more than convincing win against Rikka.

- So much for Nymph and her resurgence. Nagisa goes 4-3 and leads all Clannad reps so far this year.
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Old 2013-04-29, 22:48   Link #683
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That is an interesting line-up for a necklace round.
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Old 2013-04-29, 22:48   Link #684
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Quite a few outlier matches to close out Aquamarine.

Kuroneko beats on Yui-nyan pretty badly. Kuroneko only got around 52% last year. It's quite the jump for her to suddenly get close to doubling Yui-nyan. While, Kuroneko is definitely a bit stronger this year, Yui-nyan looks about the same as last year. Kuroneko winning by this much is pretty strange.

Holo vs Illyasviel went down pretty close to how my stats from before Aquamarine 1 said they would. The problem is Holo looked a bit better since then while Illyasviel's ranking tanked. Rin also looked a bit better this time so maybe some of the Fate fanbase decided to come back and vote.

Not too long ago Haruhi got 47% on Azusa and now she got trashed by Shana. I'm not sure what happened here. Shana only just recently showed she was weaker than Mio and Mio is at best only a bit stronger than Azusa right now. I guess Haruhi didn't do so well on Shana either last year (Haruhi got 42%).

At the start of the regular season I expected Asuna to be the clear number one followed by Rikka a bit ahead of everyone else. This prediction didn't look very good once Aquamarine kicked off and Aquamarine 7 really drives home how bad the prediction was. Asuna can't even beat Kobato and Mashiro cleanly defeats Rikka. Remember when Rikka beat Mashiro with 58% of the vote in an exhibition match? It seems pretty far away now. With that said, I don't think Mashiro is supposed to be that much stronger than Rikka. I expected a much closer match. While it may not look good now, I wouldn't count Rikka out for the Nova circlet yet.

Kanade does not have a massive SDO disadvantage going into the necklace showdown making her the huge favourite. Beating her has already proven to be a near impossible task. Beating her by a minimum of 2.4 percentage points will be even tougher.
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Old 2013-04-29, 23:36   Link #685
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite View Post
At the start of the regular season I expected Asuna to be the clear number one followed by Rikka a bit ahead of everyone else. This prediction didn't look very good once Aquamarine kicked off and Aquamarine 7 really drives home how bad the prediction was. Asuna can't even beat Kobato and Mashiro cleanly defeats Rikka. Remember when Rikka beat Mashiro with 58% of the vote in an exhibition match? It seems pretty far away now. With that said, I don't think Mashiro is supposed to be that much stronger than Rikka. I expected a much closer match. While it may not look good now, I wouldn't count Rikka out for the Nova circlet yet.

Kanade does not have a massive SDO disadvantage going into the necklace showdown making her the huge favourite. Beating her has already proven to be a near impossible task. Beating her by a minimum of 2.4 percentage points will be even tougher.

Mashiro might just be Nova's number 1 now. Sakurasou being 2-cour helped her out a lot. On the other hand, SAO being 2-cour probably hurts Asuna (although Kirito still won). That said I gave up on SAO even earlier, so I can't say much. Kobato just beat her though, with a new season, so Asuna has every chance of bouncing back. Rikka's position is hard to determine given Mashiro's unknown strength. Kuroyukihime, I'd love her to win something, and when the vote count is high, she does score plenty, coming out of Aquamarine with the highest VF in Nova. But until she fights one of the other four, we can't tell. It's unfortunate that Yui lost earlier, dropping Hime's SDO. Another period and Yui might have gone 6-1.

As for Kanade, all I'll say is she hasn't fought anyone with new material yet. This necklace match will be the first, so it's all to play for. Kirino will likely lose out big time. Taiga will be iffy. Kuroneko might not get votes due to her SDO, leaving the Nova girls. Mashiro might be the bigger threat, but with her SDO advantage, Kanade seems the obvious choice. But hey, surprises happen. Too bad I'm voting Hime :P
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Old 2013-04-30, 00:36   Link #686
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Mashiro stomped Rikka and Aoyama beat Suguha hurray , regardless of other results both these make me happy.

though...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rajura View Post
It's over... Holo is done; I haven't been able to convince the world of her worthiness of their votes... especially in SE Asia.

This appears to be her final year.
She needs S3 please .
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Old 2013-04-30, 00:52   Link #687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konakaga View Post
Mashiro stomped Rikka and Aoyama beat Suguha hurray , regardless of other results both these make me happy.

though...


She needs S3 please .
Yes she does needs a S3.
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Old 2013-04-30, 06:17   Link #688
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Yes she does needs a S3.
But, at this point, I don't see Imagin or Brain's Base... or anyone else picking it up this far out.

But, I DO hope Imagin will... I always thought their depiction of her was best (but at this point any respectable studio will do).
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Old 2013-04-30, 06:23   Link #689
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Speaking of S3, I think Hinagiku still needs a season 3...
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Old 2013-04-30, 06:24   Link #690
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So...

1. Asuna lose to Kobato. So much for "Asuna being the next Kanade".
2. Surprise at how much Mashiro win by against Rikka...can't really explain this one (Sakurasou anime, quite frankly, is average at best. Of course, using Japanese right-wing thinking it's all the Koreans voting for her )
3. Kirino won, go into necklace, prepared to get utterly destroyed since the other 6 outclass her by miles...(Not to mention Kuroneko is there)
4. Taiga won, I'm happy. Now, whether that's b/c of Eu win over Biribiri is another thing...
5. Kanade of course curbstorm Azu-nyan, although she's outdone by Kuroneko in terms of winning margin.

For necklace, 3x Hanazawa (And I love all of them equally), Mashiro (Who I tend to shaft...so no difference here), 2x waifu in Taiga and Hime, then my imouto in Kirino...hard choice, hard choice...
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Old 2013-04-30, 08:01   Link #691
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I am happy Kirino was able to get into the necklace match, but I know full well that she has no chance of winning it which makes me sad . I will probably vote for Kuroneko then being my personal second favorite there.

As for who I think will win, well that should be obvious since Kanade has been by far a stand out in terms of who she has beaten so I would be heavily surprised if someone else found a way to beat her at this point and time.
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Old 2013-04-30, 08:41   Link #692
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Did not expect Shiina to beat Rikka by that much, thought it'd be closer.

Now I wonder weather it's Shiina or Kuroyukihime #1 in Nova.
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Old 2013-04-30, 16:26   Link #693
broken270
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Props to whoever did the promotional video this year. It was enjoyable.

Necklace looks set for Kanade due to SDO advantage. Anti-necklace/tiara votes may not be enough if Kana fans ditch Kobato and Ruri for a second necklace grab for Kanade. The closest non-Kana girl to beat Kanade is Shiina with around 9 SDO difference. Kuroyukhime is second at 15, and Taiga and Kirino can kiss their chances goodbye with a devastating over 30SDO gap. Altough Kobato is the second highest in terms of SDO, unless Haganai 2 made her equal in power with Ruri or Kanade, I do not see her dishing out that much punishment. Those who do not wish to see Kanade win Aquamarine again, which seems to be likely, are going to have to pray that Ore no Imouto 2 and Haganai 2 are enough to water down Kanade's power enough to have Shiina take the title instead. That, or have an high number of Kana voters turn from Kanade to give Kobato a running chance. Unti then, KAnade's victory, on paper, is set.
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Old 2013-04-30, 18:38   Link #694
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Agreed; whoever made this year's promotional AMV is godly

Thumbs up; they should take a bow and some credit
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Old 2013-05-01, 11:44   Link #695
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So any chance of Kobato getting the necklace? Or are there other, stronger candidates up for votes...
Still can't believe taiga's still this strong after so many years, it's amazing really.
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Old 2013-05-01, 11:51   Link #696
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I was not expecting Shana to get such a straightforward win against Haruhi. How the mighty have fallen indeed.

And did you notice that Tomoyo vs Rin match? 3 votes difference! Either Tomoyo is growing weaker or Rin had quite a bit of a come back for this round.
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Old 2013-05-01, 13:11   Link #697
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Originally Posted by DorkingtonPugsly View Post
So any chance of Kobato getting the necklace? Or are there other, stronger candidates up for votes...
Still can't believe taiga's still this strong after so many years, it's amazing really.
Kobato really struggled in the past against Kanade and Kuroneko. Her having less VD and VF compared to Shiina Mashiro also cast large shadow on her chance. Despite being 2nd in SDO, I think Kobato's chance is very small.

Right now I see Kanade's chance to be the biggest, followed by Shiina Mashiro, and then Kuroyukihime. If enough people unite to support Mashiro, I think Mashiro has a chance, but this is a very big if.

As for Taiga, my best explanation is that not only is ToraDora a series that is well liked, it also is a series that is well respected. While respect seldom translates to ISML support, a series or a character that is respected loses strength much, much slower compared to other characters. Therefore, I think Taiga's rise in standing is mostly due to Taiga maintaining her power level while her opponents keep losing their power level.
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Old 2013-05-01, 18:57   Link #698
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Originally Posted by wontaek View Post
Kobato really struggled in the past against Kanade and Kuroneko. Her having less VD and VF compared to Shiina Mashiro also cast large shadow on her chance. Despite being 2nd in SDO, I think Kobato's chance is very small.

Right now I see Kanade's chance to be the biggest, followed by Shiina Mashiro, and then Kuroyukihime. If enough people unite to support Mashiro, I think Mashiro has a chance, but this is a very big if.

As for Taiga, my best explanation is that not only is ToraDora a series that is well liked, it also is a series that is well respected. While respect seldom translates to ISML support, a series or a character that is respected loses strength much, much slower compared to other characters. Therefore, I think Taiga's rise in standing is mostly due to Taiga maintaining her power level while her opponents keep losing their power level.
I see... thanks for the info. If it can't be her than I'd like Mashiro to win. I guess we'll see soon enough.
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Old 2013-05-01, 19:35   Link #699
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Kobato really struggled in the past against Kanade and Kuroneko. Her having less VD and VF compared to Shiina Mashiro also cast large shadow on her chance. Despite being 2nd in SDO, I think Kobato's chance is very small.

Right now I see Kanade's chance to be the biggest, followed by Shiina Mashiro, and then Kuroyukihime. If enough people unite to support Mashiro, I think Mashiro has a chance, but this is a very big if.

As for Taiga, my best explanation is that not only is ToraDora a series that is well liked, it also is a series that is well respected. While respect seldom translates to ISML support, a series or a character that is respected loses strength much, much slower compared to other characters. Therefore, I think Taiga's rise in standing is mostly due to Taiga maintaining her power level while her opponents keep losing their power level.
I agree with the SDO analysis. Kobato has a hard task ahead of her, and I still see Kanade securing the HanaKana vote for now (Kuroneko may usurp her later). That said, this will be Kanade's first battle against characters with new material, so it'll be an interesting result.

The Taiga thing I don't agree with. Is she strong? Yes. She's not really losing power in comparison to others around her. Is this due to Toradora? I don't think so. If Toradora was so respected, Minorin and Ami would be in Stella. Minorin and Ami contributed to Toradora a lot more than say Yui-nyan, Iwasawa, Hirasawa Ui and Nadeko contributed to their respective shows. Of course, 'moe moe kyun' and all that is why those characters are in.

The ranking thing is misleading too. When ISML had double elimination in post-season, the final ranking had meaning. Now though, it doesn't. In 2011 Taiga benefited from facing Misaka to gain her final spot. Yuki and Azusa could arguably have beaten Taiga, but no double elim denies them this. While in 2012, the post-season was manufactured (for various reasons) and that allowed Taiga to finish 4th. Misaka, who won the Stella circlet, was pitted against Nova's highest rep in the bottom half of the draw, Eucliwood. Taiga, who lost to Mikoto, had an easier ride into the semis to face Eucliwood and lose slightly worse than Mikoto did. So playing the ranking game is pointless. The final ranking has no meaning, especially in 2012.

Taiga's strength to me all hinges on how she fares against Shana. She was lucky (or some people anti-voted Shana to make sure of it) to not face Shana post-season in 2011 and 2012. This year will be big for Taiga as Shana is visibly declining. I do think some Kugyuu fans want to focus on Taiga instead of Shana. It'll still come down to Shana vs Taiga though, and if Taiga still loses handsomely to Shana, it'll basically prove that the majority of Taiga's strength comes from Kugyuu fans. For comparisons sake, Taiga beat Mio in Aqua1, while Mio beat Shana in Aqua 6. So Taiga has every right to beat Shana.
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Old 2013-05-02, 05:38   Link #700
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I agree with the SDO analysis. Kobato has a hard task ahead of her, and I still see Kanade securing the HanaKana vote for now (Kuroneko may usurp her later). That said, this will be Kanade's first battle against characters with new material, so it'll be an interesting result.

The Taiga thing I don't agree with. Is she strong? Yes. She's not really losing power in comparison to others around her. Is this due to Toradora? I don't think so. If Toradora was so respected, Minorin and Ami would be in Stella. Minorin and Ami contributed to Toradora a lot more than say Yui-nyan, Iwasawa, Hirasawa Ui and Nadeko contributed to their respective shows. Of course, 'moe moe kyun' and all that is why those characters are in.

The ranking thing is misleading too. When ISML had double elimination in post-season, the final ranking had meaning. Now though, it doesn't. In 2011 Taiga benefited from facing Misaka to gain her final spot. Yuki and Azusa could arguably have beaten Taiga, but no double elim denies them this. While in 2012, the post-season was manufactured (for various reasons) and that allowed Taiga to finish 4th. Misaka, who won the Stella circlet, was pitted against Nova's highest rep in the bottom half of the draw, Eucliwood. Taiga, who lost to Mikoto, had an easier ride into the semis to face Eucliwood and lose slightly worse than Mikoto did. So playing the ranking game is pointless. The final ranking has no meaning, especially in 2012.

Taiga's strength to me all hinges on how she fares against Shana. She was lucky (or some people anti-voted Shana to make sure of it) to not face Shana post-season in 2011 and 2012. This year will be big for Taiga as Shana is visibly declining. I do think some Kugyuu fans want to focus on Taiga instead of Shana. It'll still come down to Shana vs Taiga though, and if Taiga still loses handsomely to Shana, it'll basically prove that the majority of Taiga's strength comes from Kugyuu fans. For comparisons sake, Taiga beat Mio in Aqua1, while Mio beat Shana in Aqua 6. So Taiga has every right to beat Shana.
Let me rephrase what I posted earlier. Respect for the show or character don't get you much votes for ISML, but if you already have sufficient votes in ISML as well, it will help you keep the votes you got, no matter how you got those votes. Ami and Minori didn't have enough votes to keep them in league by 2011.

Some numbers to chew on

Average VF per match for Ami and Minori
2009 : 1289
2010 : 1924

For Taiga
2009 : 1546 ( ratio to league average 1.217)
2010 : 2895 ( ratio 1.281 )
2011 : 4272 ( ratio 1.256 )
2012 : 4582 ( ratio 1.317 , Note : Nova/Stella division formed )

League average ( approximate )
2009 : 1270
2010 : 2260
2011: 3400
2012 : 3480

Also, in 2011, Taiga did beat Yuki and Azusa



Similarly, you are conveniently forgetting that Taiga did this to earn her spot in phase II in 2012




By the 2012 rules, written long time before 2012 regular season started, Yui-nyan had higher seed compared to Eucliwood since Yui-nyan lost to the winner of Nova while Eucliwood lost to the runner up. If you tell me that we manufactured Taiga's rise by predicting that Mio would 'upset' the higher seed and then do the following, I think you have too high of opinion of us

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